THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
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SUMMER 2020 THE DIGITAL RECKONING Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking
4 Cover Story DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS 9 | SITTING DOWN WITH NOVANTAS 12 | THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER: TRAFFIC PATTERNS 14 | CLIPPING THE BRANCH 16 | NEW STRATEGIES TO MODERNIZE COMMERCIAL PRICING 19 | SURGE DEPOSITS: HOW TO MANAGE THE BALANCE SHEET IN A COVID-19 WORLD 22 | THE CD CYCLE: MANAGING RUNOFF WITH CUSTOMER TREATMENTS 26 | CHECKLIST FOR EFFICIENT CONSUMER DEPOSIT GROWTH 28 | DISTRESSED M&A: UNDERPRICED GEM OR EMPTY FRANCHISE? 31 | FROM FINTECH TO FULL SERVICE: HOW FINTECHS CAN ENTER EVERYDAY BANKING 35 | FOR TREASURY MANAGEMENT TEAMS, A CHANCE TO HELP STRESSED CLIENTS 37 | AT THE PODIUM WITH NOVANTAS 2|
A Note from the CEOs EDITORIAL elcome to the Summer 2020 issue of the Novantas Review. We hope that Director, Novantas Center for the you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. Future of Banking Robin Sidel +1 212.901.2742 There are no words to appropriately describe the upheaval that we have all experi- rsidel@novantas.com enced in the past several months. Even if COVID-19 abates and economic activity resumes, the damage won’t be easily or quickly repaired. Daily lives will be disrupt- CONTRIBUTORS ed, businesses will struggle and the country will be in the throes of a combative Jeff Diorio presidential election. Pete Gilchrist Gordon Goetzmann Banks have met many of the operational challenges by adjusting branch hours, Andrew Hovet directing customers to digital channels and keeping employees safe. It is impossible Mike Jiwani to predict what will happen next. One thing is certain: the COVID-19 crisis is accel- Brandon Larson erating the transition to digital and virtual access to banking. Bryan Moore Jacob Nygren This issue of the Novantas Review addresses actions that bank executives can take Michael Rice Ryan Schulz in coming months to ensure they have quality deposits, efficient operations and the Robin Sidel proper tools for this transition. Rick Spitler Bob Warnock We knew that our banking clients were hungry for real-time data and analysis during the pandemic, so we took a hiatus from the Novantas Review in the past few DESIGN months and began publishing weekly insights about deposits and retail banking. We Art Direction and Production tracked the flow of federal stimulus payments into (and out of) consumer checking Adrienne R. Cohen accounts, analyzed traffic patterns to help banks identify where to re-open branches and offered suggestions for re-training staff to ease strain on call centers. We will NOVANTAS, INC. continue to present this analysis to our clients on a weekly and monthly basis. Novantas is a leading provider of data, technology and advice to financial institutions globally. Finally, we also made some news of our own recently. In a move to help clients accel- erate their digital-marketing efforts, Novantas acquired the intellectual property Co-CEOs and Managing Directors and assets of Amplero, a Seattle-based AI-marketing optimization platform. We are Dave Kaytes incorporating Amplero’s machine-learning engine into our suite of offerings to help Rick Spitler banks further transform their digital capabilities. You will learn even more about these benefits in coming months. Corporate Headquarters 485 Lexington Avenue We wish you good health. New York, NY 10017 Phone: +1 212.953.4444 Sincerely, Fax: +1 212.972.4602 marketing@novantas.com www.novantas.com Dave Kaytes Rick Spitler Address changes and content Co-CEO Co-CEO questions can be directed to the contact information above. To download and share content from the Novantas Review, visit www.novantas.com or follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter. Offices Chicago New York San Francisco Sydney Toronto 3 | SUMMER 2020
Cover Story DIGITAL will guide PROWESS success as COVID-19 Lingers BY RICK SPITLER AND GORDON GOETZMANN T he COVID-19 pandemic has pushed banks to act swiftly, a characteristic that is often rare in the industry. From closing branches to navigating the complexities of the Paycheck Protection Program, banks have demonstrat- ed admirable flexibility and focus in the first months of the ongoing crisis. At this point, there is the possibility that the industry will emerge from the pandemic less harmed than after the 2008 recession. Banks are flush with deposits and they have much more capital to help sustain them. Still, earnings are under intense pressure and costs will be cut dramatically. Credit losses will be a big wildcard in coming months as banks curtail forbearance programs, landlords press tenants for rent and government benefits expire or change. At the same time, economies around the world will stay fragile as the pandemic ebbs and surges. It is tempting to slash costs as a way to bolster financial goals. But such strategies have repeatedly proven damaging to the core franchise. Forward-thinking banks have an oppor- tunity to preserve and grow the franchise by investing in core capabilities that cement customer relationships. It’s always good business to focus on the core franchise. It’s even more important to do so in a tough economic environment. Unlike previous economic upheavals, an abundance of real-time technology and data-driven insights can now help banks achieve these goals. This will be especially critical 4|
DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS because some customers have likely the Harvard Business Review. In addition unable to meet the changing needs of changed their banking habits forever. to cutting costs and improving efficiency, their customers. Novantas believes the banks that use these successful companies “develop these capabilities to identify, attract and new business opportunities by making DEPOSITS SURGE retain the best customers will be in the significantly greater investments than At first blush, it may appear that banks strongest position to weather potential their rivals do in R&D and marketing,” the don’t need to worry about deposits. The credit problems and other fallout from authors wrote. Other companies that have industry is flush with liquidity, partly due the pandemic. emerged strong from an economic crisis to government programs that were creat- ed to prop up consumers and companies. A steep drop in consumer spend- ing has kept money in consumer bank accounts, leading to an estimated $1 trillion increase in deposits, according to Novantas research. (See Figures 1.) On the corporate side, companies that are con- cerned about liquidity have drawn down credit lines, causing coffers to swell more than 20% since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. But it’s unclear how long banks will hold onto those deposits even as interest rates hover near zero across the industry. For one thing, a contin- ued weak economy will trig- ger deposit drawdowns as consumers and companies struggle to pay bills. This will become more apparent if businesses stay shuttered and unemployment remains high when government stimulus programs expire. OTHER INDUSTRIES HAVE DONE IT by investing in technology and products Meanwhile, neobanks are luring con- The history books are filled with com- include Target, Apple and Warby Parker. sumers with distinctive features, driving panies that used technology to develop Banks can take a lesson from these efficient acquisition costs that are often new products and find opportunities in success stories by cutting costs surgically. less than $100 per account compared difficult and uncertain times. Preserving the core franchise is always the with more than three or four times that After the airline industry was dereg- goal during a crisis, but this time, future for “efficient” traditional banks. About ulated in the late 1970s, for example, growth won’t come from traditional sourc- 20% of people who switched their prima- carriers started investing in reservation es like new branches. Instead, banks need ry checking relationship in 2019 opened systems to better gauge demand and to invest in digitally-driven capabilities. with one of the neo-banks (largely with created frequent flier programs to build The challenge can’t be taken lightly. Chime or Varo), according to Novantas customer loyalty. The current crisis has already brought Shopper Research. That number is only But just 9% of 4,700 companies stud- a number of companies to their knees expected to continue rising. ied by professors at Harvard and North- because they didn’t anticipate changes Corporate deposits will also remain western flourished after an economic in customer behavior, didn’t adjust when volatile as the economic slowdown crimps downturn, according to a 2010 article in those changes became apparent or were revenues and hurts businesses of all sizes. 5 | SUMMER 2020
COVER STORY FIGURE 1: U.S. DEPOSITS ARE ON PACE TO PEAK AT ROUGHLY $18.6 TRILLION, UP $3.3 TRILLION FROM PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS U.S. Deposits Base Corporate Draws Flight to Quality CARES | Corporate Loans CARES | Small Business Loans/Grants CARES | Individual Payments CARES | Local Government CARES | Other Fed Direct Lending 19000.00 $495 18000.00 $340 $329 Total Deposits ($B) 17000.00 $604 $340 $329 $660 $604 16000.00 $250 $222 $222 $660 $449 $449 $111 15000.00 14000.00 15,214 15,214 15,214 15,214 13000.00 12000.00 Pre-Covid (Q4 2019) Pre-CARES (3/25) Hypothesized Hypothesized Deposit Peak Deposit Stable Consumer Savings | Savings / MMDA Growth Acquisition Change to existing, net of switch Attrition Growth 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 22% 20% 17% 22% 12% 10% 9% 3% 5% 2% 0% 1% -10% -5% -10% -10% -20% 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2/1/20 2/8/20 2/15/20 2/22/20 2/29/20 3/7/20 3/14/20 3/21/20 3/28/20 4/4/20 4/11/20 4/18/20 4/25/20 5/2/20 5/9/20 5/16/20 5/23/20 5/30/20 6/6/20 Notes: CARES encompasses both the original CARES and PPP Enhancement Acts, Assumes only CARES — Corporate Loans will be repaid, and all other stimulus disbursements will be grants or forgiven | Assumed 50% disbursement for CARES — Corporate and 66% for Fed Main Street lending program Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, May ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity | Federal Reserve H8 Data (April 15, 2020), CARES Act (March 27, 2020), and PPP Enhancement Act (April 23, 2020) 6|
DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS The key for banks, then, is to deter- of their best customers and then initiate return to branches once restrictions are mine how to identify and retain consum- strategies to keep them at the bank. fully lifted, according to a recent survey er and corporate deposits during a wave Once those characteristics are from FindABetterBank.com. (See Figure of liquidity and a period of ultra-low identified, banks need to redefine the 3.) That means banks will have to serve rates that can make all deposits look the way they engage with these customers. these customers from afar — either with same. Textured customer treatments and The industry is filled with bankers who outbound calling or monitoring of their precision customer-level management have never interacted with customers digital activity so that the banks can will be critical to protect relationships outside of the branch, as well as a whole provide assistance when needed. and demonstrate to the customers that generation of bankers whom have only their bank is on their side. These are the worked in the boom times. With branch- DIGITAL OPENINGS AND ONBOARDING: customers whose relationship with the es closed and many customers feeling A BIG OPPORTUNITY bank extends beyond the basic deposit financial distress, banks need to pivot One of the most important things that account, generating fee income and con- the way they connect. banks can do to engage with customers tributing stability in the credit portfolio. So far, banks seem to be falling is to improve the inadequate process of short — even when it comes to providing digital account opening and onboarding. CREATING CAPABILITIES simple services that customers want, While it is a priority during the pandemic, This is the time for banks to harness data such as balance updates via email or these capabilities will also be essential that create a holistic view of what cus- text. (See Figure 2.) for the future. Afterall, consumers are tomers want, how they act, where they These challenges are likely to interacting with brands like Zoom, Ama- spend and what they need. Metrics like remain even after the virus retreats. zon and Seamless more frequently than deposit stickiness, CD runoff and credit Fewer than half of people shopping for ever in their day-to-day lives and their risk can help the bank paint a portrait a checking account say they’re likely to sophisticated digital engagement with FIGURE 2: BANKS AREN’T MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS IN THE CRISIS Bank Features: Most Useful vs. Implemented Most Useful Implemented 35% 30% 25% 20% 21% 18% 18% 15% 13% 13% 10% 10% 12% 9% 7% 6% 7% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% Dedicated Text/email Reimburse Budget Customer Regular Virtual Mortgage banker balance OD/insufficient optimizer support COVID-19 finance payment updates fund fees via text policy advice deferral updates Sample: FABB shoppers week 16/17 (N=212) Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | COVID Pulse Survey 7 | SUMMER 2020
COVER STORY FIGURE 3: LESS THAN HALF OF CONSUMERS SAY THEY ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO BRANCHES ONCE COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED Likelihood to Return to Branches Novantas estimates (week 1=3/30 to 4/5, week 18 = 7/27 to 8/2) current attrition Somewhat/Very likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat/Very unlikely rates are above 50% 60% for accounts that 53% 51% 50% originate in the 50% 47% 49% 50% 48% 48% digital channel. 45% 46% 42% 43% 42% 41% 40% 40% 40% 37% these companies sets the bar in terms 36% of expectations. Banks must raise that 35% 32% bar quickly, especially when it comes to 30% 31% 31% 32% 33% 29% 29% 33% 30% onboarding and personalization. 28% 28% 29% 30% 27% 29% 25% 26% 31% Unfortunately, too many banks are 30% 28% 28% still offering sub-par digital service. As 28% 28% 26% 26% a result, Novantas estimates that current 25% 26% 26% attrition rates are above 50% for accounts 20% 23% 24% 23% 23% 22% that originate in the digital channel. 19% Furthermore, customers encounter far 18% too many pain points during the process 10% — from application to account funding to setting up direct deposit. (See Figure 4.) Although these issues are difficult to 0% solve, customization and personalization can also help create a bond once the Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 account is open. That may mean redi- recting billboard advertising into more personal experiences, such as sending emails directly from a dedicated banker Sample: FABB shoppers week 16/17 (N=212) to making exclusive online offers that Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | COVID Pulse Survey can deepen the relationship. The upshot: corporate and retail customers have distinct communication preferences. It FIGURE 4: DIGITAL ACCOUNT OPENINGS ARE FULL OF JARGON AND OTHER PAIN POINTS is the bank’s job to identify those prefer- ences and meet them. Most Challenging Parts of Opening an Account Online There is little doubt that the next few months will be fraught with difficulties. The good news is that advances in AI and other technologies mean that banks are in position to serve customers when 33% 26% 23% 13% Accessing the they need help the most. Understanding Filling in It took a necessary personal financial jargon forms online long time Rick Spitler information Co-CEO, New York rspitler@novantas.com Kevin S. Travis Sample: FABB shoppers who opened an account digitally (N=205) EVP, Toronto/New York Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | FABB DAO Survey ktravis@novantas.com 8|
MARKETING Vijay Viswanathan knows that it isn’t enough to win customers with just great products and services. As an associate dean and associate professor at Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communications, Vijay studies how consumers make decisions and the corresponding implications for marketing strategies across a range of industries. He also helps companies move beyond traditional static marketing programs to ones that are dynamic and responsive to today’s customer demands. Those strategies will be even more important as banks navigate the ways in which customer behavior will change in a post-COVID-19 world. Furthermore, the need to optimize marketing spend will be critical in coming months as historically low interest rates intensify cost pressures. A vibrant and enhanced marketing mix model will help banks target the most valuable customers. Novantas recently sat down with Vijay to talk about the role of marketing mix models in banking today. Q: What is the biggest value that Q: Are banks using this data to their marketing mix models can provide to advantage? companies today? A: Marketing mix models have been Banks haven’t done a A: The issue has been banks haven’t done a good job leveraging the power of around for more than three decades and have extensively been used by retailers good job leveraging their data. They tend to rely on marketing mix models that use highly-aggregated and consumer-goods companies. While the power of their data rather than understanding the huge strides have been made in devel- underlying motivations and preferences oping more sophisticated approaches and methodologies along with greater computing power and data availability, data. of individual customers. They then use these aggregated models to figure out the return on investment and how to allocate marketing mix modeling hasn’t changed resources. But when you sum everything much over time from a conceptual point has been difficult to appreciate the impor- across segments and markets, you suffer of view. At the core, these models help tance of data and the capabilities needed from aggregation bias. These aggregated managers decide where to allocate their to make use of that data. When you don’t models also do not help you respond to marketing resources to achieve their have sufficient expertise in-house to take changing consumer behaviors, especially business goals. the results from the analysis and translate when the marketplace is subject to signifi- them into action, then data is of little use. cant external shocks, like a pandemic. Q: Which industries are the most sophis- ticated in using marketing mix models Q: Where do banks rank? Q: What are the implications of that? for valuable insight? A: Banks have a great advantage over A: Look at what happened in retail, even A: The Amazons of the world are perhaps traditional consumer goods companies before COVID-19. Many retail giants the most sophisticated. Companies that in that they already have their customer, closed shop because they failed to lever- have a strong engineering and/or comput- or first party, data. On the other hand, if age the power of data to respond to their er-science base understand the power of I buy a soda from a convenience store, it customers’ changing needs and relevant data and technology. It is a part of their cul- is difficult for the soda company to know factors that influenced their purchase ture, whereas for most other companies, it that I am their customer. decisions and behaviors. 10 |
SITTING DOWN WITH NOVANTAS: THE ROLE OF MARKETING MIX Q: How does the transition to digital banking impact marketing mix models? A: Well, digitization has now enabled If you’re not in front of the customers with many banks to deploy an omnichannel marketing strategy. Marketing mix mod- the right content when they are looking for a els can provide managers a good idea of which channels effectively drive individu- product or service on their phone, al consumer behaviors and, subsequently, different marketplace outcomes, such as sales, profitability, new customer acquisi- you have lost them. tion and customer retention across time and space. While marketing mix models can include digital marketing efforts, they A: We have now transitioned from dig- money on paid media. You need to can also include a whole range of custom- ital marketing to dynamic marketing. appear in front of the consumer like a er characteristics, such as demographic Here, you should have the capability to magic genie with your best content or psychographic variables, the firm’s assimilate continuous feedback from and service when the customer actually marketing efforts in offline channels and, the market so that you can finetune and needs you. While digital marketing was importantly, measures of brand equity. optimize your marketing operations about moving from share-of-voice to in almost real-time. You have to be so share-of-attention, dynamic marketing Q: What are some of the new types of much more agile and responsive. It’s is about moving from share-of-attention marketing capabilities that are valuable not enough to have a website with a to share-of-influence. to banks? ton of information or spend loads of Q: How does the domination of mobile devices change marketing strategies? A: Mobile is the dominant platform for people to access and share information. You have to understand the context behind a human-mobile interaction first so that you can push out the right content. Compare it with stores and their shelves a decade ago. If you didn’t have a product on the shelf, you lost customers. In today’s world, if you’re not in front of the custom- ers with the right content when they are looking for a product or service on their phone, you have lost them. Q: Let’s talk about your personal banking habits. When is the last time you went to a branch and what was it for? A: I went to a drive-through ATM recently, but that’s really rare. It’s been many months since I walked into a branch. The last time I went to get a physical bank branch was to get a banker’s check. Today, I use my bank app for just about everything: depositing checks, transferring money, making invest- ments and contacting customer service. Robin Sidel Director, New York rsidel@novantas.com 11 | SUMMER 2020 Vijay Viswanathan | Associate Dean, Associate Professor at Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communications
RETAIL BANKING THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER: Traffic Patterns BY BRANDON LARSON AND ANDREW HOVET T he scramble to overhaul the retail FIGURE 1: THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED TRAFFIC TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY distribution network is forcing bank teams to consider branch Activity by Market Type* closures that were unthinkable just a few months ago. Con- Feeder Hybrid Work Center ventional wisdom about which branches are most efficient, productive 10% and profitable has been turned upside as Americans make radical changes in the 0% way they lead their lives. In many cases, the COVID-19 pan- -10% demic has accelerated changes that Change in Weekly Visits were already taking place. But those changes are far from over and they -20% aren’t one-time events. Novantas believes that an ongo- -30% ing analysis of consumer movement patterns can help banks as they enter -40% the next phase of branch closures. This analysis will also be valuable as some -50% Americans begin the long transition back to work from stay-at-home orders -60% while others wrestle with new surges in cases of COVID-19. Such data can -70% be particularly helpful on an ongoing basis as banks consider how to redis- tribute resources and make real-estate -80% 3/9 3/16 3/23 3/30 4/6 4/13 4/20 4/27 5/4 5/11 5/18 5/25 6/1 6/8 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 decisions at a time when purse strings are tight due to interest rates that are hovering at zero and rising credit risk. Note: Feeder — Primarily markets where people live, but commute to other markets for work; THE SUPPLY / DEMAND SWITCH Hybrid — Markets where large populations both live and work; Work Center — Places that The U.S. branch network has long been have a high working population, particularly during the day, but few people live there. Often a supply-driven business. Banks decid- downtown areas or central business districts ed where to build branches based on *Markets Included: Atlanta GA, Baltimore MD, Buffalo NY, Los Angeles CA, Memphis TN, market opportunity, traffic patterns and Minneapolis MN, New York NY, Portland OR, San Francisco CA competitive factors. In short, banking Source: Novantas Analysis, NovaLocation, PlaceIQ 12 |
THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER: TRAFFIC PATTERNS was a local scale game where physical convenience drove density of outlets. That was all changing even before the COVID-19 pandemic swept the U.S., where banks have been closing branches at a steady pace since the 2008 financial crisis. The first wave was largely focused on underperforming or “dead-on-arrival” branches that were often unprofitable. Accounts opened digitally Accounts opened in the Banks then turned their attention to low-performing or marginally-profitable have a first-year retention branch have a first-year re- locations characterized by lower deposit rate of tention rate as high as 50% 80% levels and lower sales. Many banks were still in this phase, which focused on low-growth commu- nity and rural markets, before the pan- demic hit the U.S. in March. It seemed to be working: banks experienced limited balance attrition and few lost new sales in this phase because customers were declines than others, for example. such as those with outdoor restaurants. already less dependent on branches The situation has been far differ- Others may be best-suited as limit- than they had been in the past. ent in work centers where traffic had ed-service, appointment-only centers. Novantas has long believed that the plunged by 70% as of late May. This is next round of network rationalization unlikely to return to near-normal levels needs to move beyond the low-risk any time soon since many companies DIGITAL DECISIONS closures of the past to high-deposit loca- have already said that they won’t be These traffic patterns can also play a role tions in densely-branched urban and headed back to the office until well after as banks make decisions about engaging suburban markets. Ultimately, branch the end of the summer — or even next consumers with digital capabilities. visits will be infrequent and focused on year. Furthermore, a growing number of After all, customers who have been advice and issue resolution — just like a companies have announced that they forced to stay home are now accustomed twice-yearly visit to the phone store. will permanently allow employees to to digital interactions with their bank. work remotely. But banks historically have a first-year TRAFFIC PATTERNS CAN DRIVE CURRENT Real-time tracking tools will be retention rate of just 50% for accounts AND FUTURE BRANCH DECISIONS increasingly important as markets that are opened digitally compared with Although banks have closed branches, remain dynamic; this isn’t a one-time as high as 80% for those that are opened changed hours and directed customers exercise. Banks that regularly monitor in a branch. to other channels during the pandemic, traffic patterns in these work centers Customers who live or work in areas many of the changes in branch traffic have can use them to make decisions about that aren’t seeing a resurgence in traffic been out of their control. Instead, it is the branches in those areas. Once-prized can be targeted for digital engagement customers who have driven these new locations may no longer be considered if the bank decides to close branches trends by following stay-at-home orders. viable. On the flip side, anticipated for good. Novantas has spent the past few declines in real-estate prices could create Banks can also enhance digital months analyzing consumer movements opportunities for banks that still want to onboarding capabilities — a typical across the country by plotting anony- have a presence in these locations. weak spot — for new customers who are mous cell-phone signals on a base map. The same will likely also be true for acquired through these channels and This dynamic data show where people retail centers — particularly shopping may no longer be driving to branch- are shopping, working and visiting. malls — as a wave of bankruptcies, store dense areas. As of mid-June, visits to bank branch- closings and liquidations pummel the es and other retail locations were down industry. In addition, many consumers Brandon Larson 30% from pre-pandemic levels, but off the have grown even more accustomed to EVP, New York April peak of nearly 50%. These figures online shopping during the pandemic blarson@novantas.com were highly variable, based on geography and may be unlikely to return to physi- and local market characteristics. Bank cal stores. Banks may be better off put- Andrew Hovet branches near retailers that were deemed ting branches in shopping areas that are Director, New York “essential” experienced fewer traffic expected to see a resurgence of traffic, ahovet@novantas.com 13 | SUMMER 2020
Clipping the Branch COVID-19 has rapidly accelerated the adoption of digital banking and created widespread uncertainty about the future of the branch network. Banks have scrambled to close branches, redirect customers and add digital capabilities as sales volumes tumble. Most banks are still being very cautious about shutting branches permanently. That could certainly change if cost pressures intensify due to rising credit losses and a slow economic recovery. Faced with fewer opportunities for physical banking, consumers will continue the shift toward other BRANCH PROFILE FOR RESPONDENTS channels, underscoring the importance of digital account Fewer than 100 branches 22% openings and personalized outreach in a virtual world. 100-200 branches 26% Novantas is tracking these trends closely and conducting 200-500 branches 22% regular surveys about branch operations. The information 500-1,000 branches 17% below is based on a survey conducted in June that received 1,000-2,500 branches 13% responses from 46 financial institutions, representing roughly Novantas SalesScape Comparative Analytics Survey closed 6/12 18,000 branch locations. PANDEMIC TRENDS Teller transactions are down sharply from late 2019 as branches closed or reduced hours of operation, while digital sales are up sharply. Decline in Teller Transactions Digital Sales 45% 40% 37% 41% 40% 35% 35% 32% 30% 26% 30% % of Responses % of Responses 25% 25% 20% 19% 20% 19% 15% 15% 11% 10% 10% 7% 5% 5% 3% 5% 0% 0% 0% More than 41% to 31% to 21% to 11% to 1% to 21% to 41% to 61% to 91% to +121% 51% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 40% 60% 90% 100% 56% of banks said teller volumes are 26% of banks saw digital sales increase by 14 down | by more than 31% from Q4 2019 more than 90%
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE Of the branches now closed, banks are being cautious about shutting them permanently, but many are considering accelerating branch consolidations or expect their network to be reduced notably within two years. May Remain Closed / Consolidated Branch Consolidation Considerations by Branch Network Size Over 1,000 500-1,000 200-500 100-200 Under 100 *Banks could answer more than once per selection 50% 42% 40% 5% 40% % of Responses 35% 35% 9% 30% 30% 2% % of Responses 23% 20% 25% 5% 12% 9% 20% 10% 9% 15% 0% 9% 2% 10% 14% 0% 1% to 9% 10% to 19% 5% 2% 7% 9% 2% 2% 0% 40% of banks said they were Delay No plans, Considering Expect considering accelerating planned planned reviewing accelerating network branch consolidation / closures consolidations network plans will be reduced Banks regret not having certain procedures in place WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA before the pandemic struck. UNDER 100 BRANCHES 100-200 200-500 OVER 1,000 Better call-center technology More digital capability & Increased authority limits Phone & internet-based selling enablement Better outbound calling Instant issue at drive-thru Flexible staffing Shared banker laptops Cross training of branch staff Remapping of call center Verification of ID over the phone Chat, video conferencing lines into the branch Appointment setting Online appointment Plan to quickly move people Work-from-home capabilities banking to areas that match skill set Branch employees trained Mobile-acquisition programs to cover call center How much smaller do you expect your branch network to be in two years? Over 1,000 500-1,000 200-500 100-200 Under 100 50% 4% 7% % of Responses 40% 4% 30% 7% 14% 20% 11% 4% 4% 4% 10% 11% 7% 7% 7% 4% 4% 4% 0% No Change 1% to 5% 6% to 10% 11% to 15% 16% to 20% Smaller Smaller Smaller Smaller 15 | SUMMER 2020 Source: Novantas SalesScape Comparative Analytics
COMMERCIAL BANKING New Strategies TO MODERNIZE COMMERCIAL PRICING BY JACOB NYGREN AND MICHAEL RICE Is a 40-year-old pricing structure really the best way to attract customers? C ommercial-banking operations have retained what Novantas believes is an outdated, labor-intensive pricing structure that creates friction between bankers and clients. The inherent problems of a system that has more than 2,000 price points, combined with growing external competi- tion and a shift to digital transactions, means that banks need to consider new pricing approaches. Novantas estimates that an overhaul of commercial pricing represents a revenue opportunity of nearly $4 billion 16 |
NEW STRATEGIES TO MODERNIZE COMMERCIAL PRICING to banks, but only for institutions that ture originally sought to balance bank NEW PRICING STRUCTURES have the foresight to embrace innova- profitability and market needs within the Novantas has identified at least four tive pricing before weaker economics regulatory limitations imposed by Reg Q. promising structures that can re-make take hold. Legislators repealed the rule 10 years ago, commercial pricing — just as they have but there has been very little change to done in other industries. Simplified DECAY OF THE STATUS QUO the status quo. package pricing and subscriptions are Today’s commercial-pricing structure has Indeed, the burdens of this legacy two that promote a simplified user expe- evolved from the framework of Regulation structure remain and are arguably as rience and streamline the sales process Q, the 1933 federal rule that prohibited cumbersome today as ever before, to promote deeper advisory-based client the payment of interest on commercial despite the many available alternatives. interactions. Banks can also consider deposits. At the time, bank-profitability Essentially, commercial pricing has customized pricing plans that use models relied on the revenue generated stagnated Essentially, commercial pric- algorithms or link pricing directly to the by these deposits to offset the costs of ing has stagnated due to inertia even as value it creates. transaction activity. digital advances create new opportuni- Under simplified package pricing, Earnings credit rates (ECR) took hold ties for an overhaul. legacy constructs such as ECR can PAIN POINTS No matter what their size, com- panies grapple with a tangled web of data about their banking services. Here are some key num- Average pages of account Average number of unique Unique service line items bers, based on analysis of more analysis statements per service line items used managed by most banks than 10,000 bank statements that month across all bank were provided by nearly 200 relationships corporates and cover more than 60 banks. Source: Novantas NDepth bank fee analysis data as interest rates soared in the 1970s and Corporates and bankers alike feel be shelved in favor of direct interest. 1980s and banks gradually began adding the pain points associated with com- Complicated and cumbersome service more transaction fees and services. mercial banking pricing. In some cases, line item pricing can yield to fixed-fee Pricing schemes became more complex, companies struggle to digest thousands package pricing or all-in product pric- required more time to manage and nego- of pages of account analysis each month. ing. By collapsing service line items tiated relationship pricing became the A simple goal to consolidate monthly into a single package, banks can shift rule rather than the exception. fees paid, compare monthly changes and the perception of “nickel-and-diming” This ever-expanding complexity understand how pricing compares across customers into one that offers standard introduced increased friction within banks becomes a herculean task for the features “free of charge.” With package the sales process that continues to exist typical treasury group that operates pricing in place, banks can still selec- today. In fact, a typical bank relationship without intelligent fee-analysis software. tively offer value-based add-on features manager (RM) now spends an estimated On top of all that, near-zero interest like enhanced reporting or industry-spe- 225 hours per year on lengthy price rates and corporate belt-tightening tied cific specialty offerings. negotiations, addressing billing errors, to the global pandemic are leading to The “banking as a service” concept describing the minutia of service line increased scrutiny over bank fees. Disin- draws on the pricing model used by item pricing and evaluating how pricing termediation by fintech organizations and many software companies to better compares (or more often, doesn’t direct- slow growth in new treasury management reflect value and promote deeper client ly compare) with competitor banks. fees and services further exacerbate the integration. This model helps shift the The current cost-based pricing struc- headwinds faced by commercial banks. relationship dynamics from being purely 17 | SUMMER 2020
COMMERCIAL BANKING CREATIVE PRICING BUNDLE/PACKAGE SUBSCRIPTION CONTINGENT PERSONALIZED ACROSS PRICING MODEL PRICING* ALGORITHMIC PRICING INDUSTRIES Non-bank: New-car option Non-bank: Amazon Prime Non-bank: Investment Non-bank: Car insurance Banks have been slow to packages banking fees modernize commercial-pric- Bank: Bank: ing structures, but they can Bank: Tiered online Bank: Broad and complex embrace new methods by Cash banking platform Receivables relationships examining how other indus- management for (bronze, silver, management tries have embraced creative importer gold) pricing models. BENEFIT: BENEFIT: BENEFIT: BENEFIT: Simplifies Simplifies Based on real or Customized and purchase purchase anticipated value unique *based on proactive role in billings and collections based on defined success criteria transactional to one that delivers more ship data (risk, attrition, scoring) and tioned to benefit as the industry expands value-based analytics, data and advice. market benchmarks (pricing, penetration beyond its historical domain of trans- Under this model, banks can put them- to establish optimal, client-level pricing). action execution into the value-added selves in the enviable position of being realms of data, analytics and advisory a transactional, informational, analyt- THE ARGUMENT FOR MORE services. Improved pricing schemes will ical and advisory hub for their clients. EFFICIENT PRICING encourage deeper client relationships The contingent pricing concept By shrugging off the yoke of the past and supporting technology will unlock seeks to directly tie pricing to value. Fees and adopting modern commercial pric- additional capacity, empowering a more are calculated based on measurable real ing schemes, banks can introduce struc- effective sales force. or expected benefits to the client. For tures that more clearly reflect the value Ultimately, these changes will herald a example, accelerated receivables can of the business for the client. This type new era in commercial banking as friction produce a measurable improvement in of overhaul can simplify sales efforts, in existing pricing schemes is reduced, days-sales-outstanding (DSO), which promote efficient pricing and profit- yielding greater operational efficiencies leads to quantifiable working capital ability and offer a client experience that and a restoration of economic equilibrium. benefits for the client. Or customers can rivals fintech competitors. And in the long run, banks will be share in the revenue benefits that come Sales personnel, now freed from the compensated for the value delivered with commercial-card performance, such shackles of complex price negotiations, and transparency in pricing will effec- as customer penetration, higher average can pivot to truly become advisory tively restore bankers as collaborative spend or reduced fraud. This can cement partners. Client interactions that were business partners rather than potentially the banker as an advisory partner invest- once centered around nitpicking line perceived as exploitative vendors. ed in clients’ success. items can evolve into conversations of Finally, banks can use intelligent how consolidating volumes can improve Jacob Nygren algorithmic pricing models to provide pricing through economies of scale, how Principal, Chicago unique client-specific pricing that can be new products benefit their organization jacob_nygren@treasurystrategies.com used for the entire book of business. This and/or advisory discussions on process personalized approach to pricing uses vast optimization. Mike Rice amounts of client behavior data (channel, Financial institutions that revamp Managing Director, New York customer-service engagement), relation- pricing structures will be well-posi- mrice@novantas.com 18 |
Surge Deposits: How to Manage the Balance Sheet in a COVID-19 World BY MIKE JIWANI AND PETE GILCHRIST M ore than $2 trillion of deposits myriad scenarios that could develop in A prudent approach can help main- have flowed into U.S. banks coming months and years. At the heart tain balance sheet stability through since early March, represent- of this strategy is the need for banks to the cycle. This involves determining ing an unprecedented surge. understand the potential behavior of financial objectives and constraints, Spurred by government programs and a these surge deposits, dictating how they planning for multiple potential sce- strong desire for liquidity by companies could be put to use on the asset side. narios, developing a coordinated and and consumers alike, banks are now This should involve developing centralized action plan and developing awash in deposits. The trend is drawing detailed surge-deposit analytics to proj- appropriate monitoring and gover- attention from regulators and bankers, ect structural and stressed liquidity, as nance to make course corrections creating new questions about balance well as customer-level analytics to make as necessary. sheet management as old Treasury informed estimates of balance behavior Taking these steps now can help models essentially become obsolete. based on a vast array of data points prevent the need for a panicked and Banks need to develop strategies about the customer’s past holdings, likely expensive overcorrection down for managing the balance sheet under current position and likely future path. the line. 19 | SUMMER 2020
TREASURY FIGURE 1: TOTAL U.S. DOMESTIC DEPOSITS — Q4 2019 A LONG LIST OF UNKNOWNS The months of uncertainty around Consumer | $6.9T Commercial | $3.6T Wealth | $2.5T COVID-19 are unlikely to retreat any- Small Business | $1.2T Public Funds | $1.0T time soon. Before the virus hit earlier this year, the banking industry had been experiencing a relatively stable deposit 7% environment. The Fed had signaled it planned to keep rates flat for the fore- 8% seeable future, and while the deposit market was still active with accelerated money in motion, trends had become somewhat predictable. (See Figure 1.) But the industry has been anything 16% Deposits by Segment 45% but stable since early March when a (% of Total Deposits) large influx of liquidity started to enter the system. The Fed cut rates by 150 basis points to zero in a matter of two weeks and companies planned for the worst by drawing down credit lines to shore up liquidity. These actions, com- bined with government programs such 24% as the Payment Protection Program and stimulus payments, have fueled the surge in deposits. (See Figure 2.) Furthermore, the ongoing pandemic Source: Novantas Analysis, FDIC SOD report; Z1; Includes commercial and savings banks, has significantly, and perhaps perma- savings / lending associations, and credit unions nently, changed the way in which people and businesses conduct themselves in FIGURE 2: U.S. DEPOSIT BASE seemingly every facet of life — a devel- opment that has turned past assump- Total U.S. Domestic Deposits tions about deposit behavior on its head. The future behavior of these depos- Baseline Deposits Surge Deposits its is now at the heart of critical ques- $18 tions banks are asking themselves. How Total U.S. Domestic Deposits ($T) quickly will these surge deposits burn $17 down? What is the worst-case scenario? How can a bank make the distinction $16 between high- and low-quality deposits, given there are limited differences in product and cost between them in an $15 ultra-low rate environment? Sensitivity to rates will also be a major $14 factor. How will these deposits react when rates finally rise again? If rates go nega- tive, what actions should the bank take $13 with respect to product design, pricing and marketing? Is it wise to be the first $12 mover or is it better to wait for others to act? How will deposit customers respond? Ja -18 Fe -19 M 19 Ap -19 M r-19 Ju -19 Ju 9 Au 9 Se -19 O -19 N -19 De -19 Ja -19 Fe -20 M -20 Ap -20 M r-20 Ju -20 Ju 0 0 1 l-1 2 l-2 Finally, banks will need to consider b- n- n- c n ar ay g p ct ov c n b ar ay De changes to models underlying asset/ Note: Total H8 deposits grossed up to equal total U.S. domestic deposits, which includes liability management, funds transfer deposits from commercial and savings banks, savings & loan associations and shares from pricing and stressed liquidity, as well as credit unions the overall impact on the institution’s Source: Novantas Analysis; H8 Report asset strategy. 20 |
SURGE DEPOSITS: HOW TO MANAGE THE BALANCE SHEET IN A COVID-19 WORLD Because they don’t know how these type when the rate cycle turns. Banks surge deposits will behave, most bankers will need to reevaluate their Treasury have invested these funds in short-term, models and apply new assumptions and low-yielding assets. While longer-term overlays to account for the recent surge assets provide limited incremental value in deposits. at the moment, yield curves could steep- Next, banks should evaluate margin- en as the economy stabilizes. That means al initiatives to affect the balance sheet. banks could leave valuable net interest These initiatives should be evaluated margin on the table if they don’t optimize centrally so that they can be compared their balance sheets. The impact could be significant: Novantas has found that Keeping a relatively across lines of business and relative to Treasury actions. This will help the balance sheet optimization can be worth as much as 50 bp in return on equity or stable balance bank determine things like the need and capacity for incremental funding two percentage points of earnings per sheet position that and which funding sources (customer or share growth — all while staying within non-customer) are most efficient. the bank’s risk appetite. optimizes through the Of course, things rarely go as HOW BANKS HAVE BEEN REACTING cycle is ideal. planned, so banks must be prepared to pivot as necessary. Banks should Banks are already pursuing different monitor performance and the economic strategies to manage these surge depos- environment closely, developing early its. Some bankers are happy to have warning indicators that suggest when them because they provide much-need- changes are needed. Additionally, the ed liquidity relief. Others are worried bank should install an appropriate these surge deposits will crimp NIM as The key to success is around prepar- governance structure to ensure it is loan growth slows and there isn’t a pro- ing for multiple potential scenarios and in a position to make course correc- ductive place to put these excess depos- being nimble enough to pivot as needed. tions as necessary. This will limit any its to use. Some are even worried these “whiplash” a bank may incur as it tries deposits will affect capital and liquidity STRATEGIES TO MANAGE THE to manage its balance sheet through a ratios, believing they may be forced to BALANCE SHEET tumultuous environment. raise capital at an expensive time. This Novantas believes that banks can best The uncertainty gripping the is driving some banks to move deposits manage these uncertain times by first industry today requires that banks take off balance sheet and/or make more identifying their financial objectives. a thoughtful approach and prepare aggressive rate cuts to reduce balances. What is the bank looking to optimize? It for a range of scenarios to manage the Additionally, banks are beginning may be earnings growth, return on equi- current surge in liquidity. Proper prepa- to question the near-term value of low- ty and/or some other goal and it likely ration can ensure banks aren’t left in a cost core deposits if rates stay low for an involves optimizing in the near-term sub-optimal balance sheet position for extended period. Others are willing to while not sacrificing long-term success. whatever lies ahead. invest in the key capabilities required to The bank must do this while continuing Advanced institutions already are win core customers, betting the deposits to operate within its risk appetite, with analyzing deposit behavior at the custom- and associated fees will put them in a a particular focus on capital, leverage, er level for both retail and commercial better position if and when the economy liquidity and interest-rate risk. lines of business, enabling banks to be returns to some sort of normal state and Once the goal is identified, the bank more surgical about pricing and targeting rates begin to rise. needs to prepare for a number of poten- decisions. For example, which products Whatever strategy a bank is taking, tial scenarios. Novantas recommends and customers would have the lowest the last thing a bank should do is take that these scenarios include a V- and/ balance impact from reducing rates? drastic actions only to overcorrect down or U-shaped recovery, a prolonged In other words, the more granular, the line. Keeping a relatively stable low-rate environment — such as 0% for the better. balance sheet position that optimizes the next three years — and a period of through the cycle is ideal. Uncertainty negative rates. Mike Jiwani in the future has only made this task Each scenario should include projec- Director, New York more challenging: without a clear sense tions of funding needs (based on expect- mjiwani@novantas.com of what will happen in the future, it is ed loan growth and credit performance) hard to project how the balance sheet and how deposits will behave. This Pete Gilchrist will react and what actions are needed should include estimates of burndown EVP, New York to optimize. rates and analysis of betas by deposit pgilchrist@novantas.com 21 | SUMMER 2020
THE CD CYCLE: Managing Runoff with Customer Treatments With rates hovering at zero, how do you keep customers who have been getting more than 150 basis points on their deposits for the past year? More importantly, do you want to? 22 |
THE CD CYCLE: MANAGING RUNOFF WITH CUSTOMER TREATMENTS CD portfolios are on pace to run off 40% of balances over the course of a year. That would be modestly higher than levels seen in 2007-2009. The runoff is driven by low rates and the desire of customers to switch from term deposits to liquid savings. This proprietary snapshot from Novantas’ Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) platform shows the trend. Annualized CD Growth | All Terms Annualized Growth 4-Week Rolling Average 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Quarterly Weekly -60% CDA data CDA data 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1-Feb-20 8-Feb-20 15-Feb-20 22-Feb-20 29-Feb-20 7-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 4-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 25-Apr-20 2-May-20 9-May-20 16-May-20 23-May-20 30-May-20 6-Jun-20 13-Jun-20 20-Jun-20 27-Jun-20 4-Jul-20 11-Jul-20 18-Jul-20 25-Jul-20 1-Aug-20 Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, July ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity In the past, banks that sought to reprice these time deposits as quickly as possible — for as little as possible — later discovered that strategy didn’t work. Not only did they see large outflows, but they later had to pay more to re-acquire these deposits when rates rose. Banks that can retain these deposits now when they are inexpensive (but not the cheapest in the market) can reap the benefits over the longer-term. 23 | SUMMER 2020
RETAIL BANKING More than 60% of current CDs are priced above 1.5%, according to Novantas research. Many of those customers will feel “sticker shock” when they consider choices for those maturing funds. Banks need to consider multiple strategies for these customers. STANDARD RATE DISCIPLINE SHIFT TO MMDA SLOW PLAY EXCEPTIONS Lower rate sheet rates in line Consider proactive shifting of Customers with prior exceptions with competitors promo CDs into MMDA/Savings have self-identified (sometimes Avoid ‘area of indifference’ — to lean into market trends and with banker assistance) as rate worst place to be is ‘not the best, customer preferences sensitive not the worst’ Short-duration offers can help These clients are at highest risk shift deposits while improving for near-term attrition, but Acquisition rates dampened for retention, delivered on a back depending on other now but likely to return as excess pocket or proactive basis characteristics may be long-term liquidity flows out and branch persistent Cashable CDs provide similar traffic rebounds outcomes if available Since not all CD customers are alike, banks need to assess their anticipated behavior before the CDs mature. Term Renewal Segmentation Term Auto-Renewal Likely Not Likely Low EXPECTED BEHAVIOR Likely to auto-renew at go-to rate/term Not likely to auto-renew, likely to respond to term switch offer Not likely to auto-renew or respond to term switch offer Price Sensitivity ILLUSTRATIVE TREATMENT No additional treatment Provide term offer with higher rate than current on-sale Provide savings offer to retain balances in the bank High Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, July ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity 24 |
25 | SUMMER 2020
CHECKLIST FOR EFFICIENT CONSUMER DEPOSIT GROWTH The value of core, relationship-based sticky consumer deposits can’t be underestimated in today’s banking environment. Still, many banks aren’t taking advantage of analytics that can help avoid costly errors and improve their mix of high-value deposits as they navigate this unprecedented period. This checklist for efficient deposit growth can go a long way in guiding banks to make the most of their valuable deposits. 26 |
Determine segments with favorable, higher-value CHOOSE retention profiles Identify long-term sticky deposits Calculate duration analytics for portfolio products and segments Analyze primary DDA relationships and core deposit TRACK growth versus single-service hot money Assess loyalty versus hot money Leverage flow-of-funds level detail to spot new versus existing money and attrition risk Analyze weekly rate position and understand true market clearing rates across acquisition and portfolio COMPARE balances by peer set and industry totals Align results to timely peer data Explain variances to core industry metrics, providing executives a clear picture into key bank performance versus the market Monitor customer cross-sell behavior over time and DEEPEN retention impact Measure cross-sell activity, including new-to-bank Analyze the effectiveness of promotional campaigns, households including marginal cost of funds Efficiently target new money without cannibalizing the OFFER existing book Define offers to deepen relationships, gather and Pinpoint the best market and product to launch a maintain deposits campaign, tracking key competitor and market reference rates across both direct and branch channels 27 | SUMMER 2020
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