THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas

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THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
SUMMER 2020

        THE DIGITAL
        RECKONING

                              Digital Prowess

              Modernizing Commerial Pricing

              Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
4       Cover Story
        DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS

                          9 | SITTING DOWN WITH NOVANTAS
                  12 | THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER: TRAFFIC PATTERNS
                             14 | CLIPPING THE BRANCH
               16 | NEW STRATEGIES TO MODERNIZE COMMERCIAL PRICING
     19 | SURGE DEPOSITS: HOW TO MANAGE THE BALANCE SHEET IN A COVID-19 WORLD
           22 | THE CD CYCLE: MANAGING RUNOFF WITH CUSTOMER TREATMENTS
               26 | CHECKLIST FOR EFFICIENT CONSUMER DEPOSIT GROWTH
             28 | DISTRESSED M&A: UNDERPRICED GEM OR EMPTY FRANCHISE?
     31 | FROM FINTECH TO FULL SERVICE: HOW FINTECHS CAN ENTER EVERYDAY BANKING
       35 | FOR TREASURY MANAGEMENT TEAMS, A CHANCE TO HELP STRESSED CLIENTS
                         37 | AT THE PODIUM WITH NOVANTAS

2|
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
A Note from the
                                      CEOs                                              EDITORIAL
         elcome to the Summer 2020 issue of the Novantas Review. We hope that           Director, Novantas Center for the
  you and your loved ones are safe and healthy.                                         Future of Banking
                                                                                        Robin Sidel
                                                                                        +1 212.901.2742
There are no words to appropriately describe the upheaval that we have all experi-
                                                                                        rsidel@novantas.com
enced in the past several months. Even if COVID-19 abates and economic activity
resumes, the damage won’t be easily or quickly repaired. Daily lives will be disrupt-
                                                                                        CONTRIBUTORS
ed, businesses will struggle and the country will be in the throes of a combative       Jeff Diorio
presidential election.                                                                  Pete Gilchrist
                                                                                        Gordon Goetzmann
Banks have met many of the operational challenges by adjusting branch hours,            Andrew Hovet
directing customers to digital channels and keeping employees safe. It is impossible    Mike Jiwani
to predict what will happen next. One thing is certain: the COVID-19 crisis is accel-   Brandon Larson
erating the transition to digital and virtual access to banking.                        Bryan Moore
                                                                                        Jacob Nygren
This issue of the Novantas Review addresses actions that bank executives can take       Michael Rice
                                                                                        Ryan Schulz
in coming months to ensure they have quality deposits, efficient operations and the
                                                                                        Robin Sidel
proper tools for this transition.
                                                                                        Rick Spitler
                                                                                        Bob Warnock
We knew that our banking clients were hungry for real-time data and analysis
during the pandemic, so we took a hiatus from the Novantas Review in the past few       DESIGN
months and began publishing weekly insights about deposits and retail banking. We       Art Direction and Production
tracked the flow of federal stimulus payments into (and out of) consumer checking       Adrienne R. Cohen
accounts, analyzed traffic patterns to help banks identify where to re-open branches
and offered suggestions for re-training staff to ease strain on call centers. We will   NOVANTAS, INC.
continue to present this analysis to our clients on a weekly and monthly basis.         Novantas is a leading provider of
                                                                                        data, technology and advice to
                                                                                        financial institutions globally.
Finally, we also made some news of our own recently. In a move to help clients accel-
erate their digital-marketing efforts, Novantas acquired the intellectual property
                                                                                        Co-CEOs and Managing Directors
and assets of Amplero, a Seattle-based AI-marketing optimization platform. We are       Dave Kaytes
incorporating Amplero’s machine-learning engine into our suite of offerings to help     Rick Spitler
banks further transform their digital capabilities. You will learn even more about
these benefits in coming months.                                                        Corporate Headquarters
                                                                                        485 Lexington Avenue
We wish you good health.                                                                New York, NY 10017
                                                                                        Phone: +1 212.953.4444
Sincerely,                                                                              Fax: +1 212.972.4602
                                                                                        marketing@novantas.com
                                                                                        www.novantas.com

                      Dave Kaytes                        Rick Spitler                   Address changes and content
                      Co-CEO                             Co-CEO                         questions can be directed to the
                                                                                        contact information above.

                                                                                        To download and share content from
                                                                                        the Novantas Review, visit
                                                                                        www.novantas.com or follow us on
                                                                                        LinkedIn and Twitter.

                                                                                        Offices
                                                                                        Chicago
                                                                                        New York
                                                                                        San Francisco
                                                                                        Sydney
                                                                                        Toronto

3 | SUMMER 2020
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
Cover Story

  DIGITAL                             will
                                      guide
PROWESS                               success
                as COVID-19 Lingers
                  BY RICK SPITLER AND GORDON GOETZMANN

                          T
                                 he COVID-19 pandemic has pushed banks to act swiftly,
                                 a characteristic that is often rare in the industry. From
                                 closing branches to navigating the complexities of the
                                 Paycheck Protection Program, banks have demonstrat-
                                 ed admirable flexibility and focus in the first months of
                          the ongoing crisis.
                              At this point, there is the possibility that the industry will
                          emerge from the pandemic less harmed than after the 2008
                          recession. Banks are flush with deposits and they have much
                          more capital to help sustain them.
                              Still, earnings are under intense pressure and costs will be
                          cut dramatically. Credit losses will be a big wildcard in coming
                          months as banks curtail forbearance programs, landlords press
                          tenants for rent and government benefits expire or change. At
                          the same time, economies around the world will stay fragile as
                          the pandemic ebbs and surges.
                              It is tempting to slash costs as a way to bolster financial
                          goals. But such strategies have repeatedly proven damaging
                          to the core franchise. Forward-thinking banks have an oppor-
                          tunity to preserve and grow the franchise by investing in core
                          capabilities that cement customer relationships. It’s always
                          good business to focus on the core franchise. It’s even more
                          important to do so in a tough economic environment.
                              Unlike previous economic upheavals, an abundance of
                          real-time technology and data-driven insights can now help
                          banks achieve these goals. This will be especially critical

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THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS

because some customers have likely            the Harvard Business Review. In addition       unable to meet the changing needs of
changed their banking habits forever.         to cutting costs and improving efficiency,     their customers.
    Novantas believes the banks that use      these successful companies “develop
these capabilities to identify, attract and   new business opportunities by making           DEPOSITS SURGE
retain the best customers will be in the      significantly greater investments than         At first blush, it may appear that banks
strongest position to weather potential       their rivals do in R&D and marketing,” the     don’t need to worry about deposits. The
credit problems and other fallout from        authors wrote. Other companies that have       industry is flush with liquidity, partly due
the pandemic.                                 emerged strong from an economic crisis         to government programs that were creat-
                                                                                                            ed to prop up consumers
                                                                                                            and companies. A steep
                                                                                                            drop in consumer spend-
                                                                                                            ing has kept money in
                                                                                                            consumer bank accounts,
                                                                                                            leading to an estimated $1
                                                                                                            trillion increase in deposits,
                                                                                                            according to Novantas
                                                                                                            research. (See Figures 1.)
                                                                                                            On the corporate side,
                                                                                                            companies that are con-
                                                                                                            cerned about liquidity
                                                                                                            have drawn down credit
                                                                                                            lines, causing coffers to
                                                                                                            swell more than 20% since
                                                                                                            the pandemic took hold in
                                                                                                            the U.S.
                                                                                                                 But it’s unclear how long
                                                                                                            banks will hold onto those
                                                                                                            deposits even as interest
                                                                                                            rates hover near zero across
                                                                                                            the industry.
                                                                                                                 For one thing, a contin-
                                                                                                            ued weak economy will trig-
                                                                                                            ger deposit drawdowns as
                                                                                                            consumers and companies
                                                                                                            struggle to pay bills. This
                                                                                                            will become more apparent
                                                                                                            if businesses stay shuttered
                                                                                                            and unemployment remains
                                                                                                            high when government
                                                                                                            stimulus programs expire.
OTHER INDUSTRIES HAVE DONE IT                 by investing in technology and products             Meanwhile, neobanks are luring con-
The history books are filled with com-        include Target, Apple and Warby Parker.        sumers with distinctive features, driving
panies that used technology to develop             Banks can take a lesson from these        efficient acquisition costs that are often
new products and find opportunities in        success stories by cutting costs surgically.   less than $100 per account compared
difficult and uncertain times.                Preserving the core franchise is always the    with more than three or four times that
     After the airline industry was dereg-    goal during a crisis, but this time, future    for “efficient” traditional banks. About
ulated in the late 1970s, for example,        growth won’t come from traditional sourc-      20% of people who switched their prima-
carriers started investing in reservation     es like new branches. Instead, banks need      ry checking relationship in 2019 opened
systems to better gauge demand and            to invest in digitally-driven capabilities.    with one of the neo-banks (largely with
created frequent flier programs to build           The challenge can’t be taken lightly.     Chime or Varo), according to Novantas
customer loyalty.                             The current crisis has already brought         Shopper Research. That number is only
     But just 9% of 4,700 companies stud-     a number of companies to their knees           expected to continue rising.
ied by professors at Harvard and North-       because they didn’t anticipate changes              Corporate deposits will also remain
western flourished after an economic          in customer behavior, didn’t adjust when       volatile as the economic slowdown crimps
downturn, according to a 2010 article in      those changes became apparent or were          revenues and hurts businesses of all sizes.

5 | SUMMER 2020
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
COVER STORY

FIGURE 1: U.S. DEPOSITS ARE ON PACE TO PEAK AT ROUGHLY $18.6 TRILLION, UP $3.3 TRILLION FROM PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS
                                                                                                             U.S. Deposits

                      Base                                                       Corporate Draws                                                                                         Flight to Quality
                      CARES | Corporate Loans                                    CARES | Small Business Loans/Grants                                                                     CARES | Individual Payments
                      CARES | Local Government                                   CARES | Other                                                                                           Fed Direct Lending

                       19000.00
                                                                                                                                                                    $495
                       18000.00                                                                                                                                     $340
                                                                                                                                                                    $329
Total Deposits ($B)

                       17000.00                                                                                                                                     $604                                                   $340
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $329
                                                                                                                                                                    $660                                                   $604
                       16000.00                                                                                                                      $250
                                                                                                                            $222                                                     $222                                  $660
                                                                                                             $449                                                   $449                                                                     $111
                       15000.00

                       14000.00
                                                    15,214                                              15,214                                                    15,214                                                 15,214
                       13000.00

                       12000.00
                                      Pre-Covid (Q4 2019)                                Pre-CARES (3/25)                                                Hypothesized                                          Hypothesized
                                                                                                                                                         Deposit Peak                                          Deposit Stable

                                                                      Consumer Savings | Savings / MMDA Growth

                                             Acquisition                   Change to existing, net of switch                                                   Attrition                      Growth

                      70%
                      60%
                      50%
                      40%
                      30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                    22%
                      20%     17%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             22%
                                                              12%
                      10%       9%                            3%                                                                                                                                                                             5%
                               2%
                        0%                                    1%
                      -10%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -5%
                               -10%                           -10%
                      -20%
                              1Q19
                                      2Q19
                                             3Q19
                                                     4Q19
                                                             2/1/20
                                                                      2/8/20
                                                                               2/15/20
                                                                                         2/22/20
                                                                                                   2/29/20
                                                                                                              3/7/20
                                                                                                                       3/14/20
                                                                                                                                 3/21/20
                                                                                                                                           3/28/20
                                                                                                                                                      4/4/20
                                                                                                                                                               4/11/20
                                                                                                                                                                         4/18/20
                                                                                                                                                                                   4/25/20
                                                                                                                                                                                             5/2/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      5/9/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                               5/16/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5/23/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5/30/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6/6/20

Notes: CARES encompasses both the original CARES and PPP Enhancement Acts, Assumes only CARES — Corporate Loans will be repaid,
and all other stimulus disbursements will be grants or forgiven | Assumed 50% disbursement for CARES — Corporate and 66% for Fed Main
Street lending program
Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, May ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity | Federal
Reserve H8 Data (April 15, 2020), CARES Act (March 27, 2020), and PPP Enhancement Act (April 23, 2020)

6|
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
DIGITAL PROWESS WILL GUIDE SUCCESS AS COVID-19 LINGERS

    The key for banks, then, is to deter-      of their best customers and then initiate   return to branches once restrictions are
mine how to identify and retain consum-        strategies to keep them at the bank.        fully lifted, according to a recent survey
er and corporate deposits during a wave            Once those characteristics are          from FindABetterBank.com. (See Figure
of liquidity and a period of ultra-low         identified, banks need to redefine the      3.) That means banks will have to serve
rates that can make all deposits look the      way they engage with these customers.       these customers from afar — either with
same. Textured customer treatments and         The industry is filled with bankers who     outbound calling or monitoring of their
precision customer-level management            have never interacted with customers        digital activity so that the banks can
will be critical to protect relationships      outside of the branch, as well as a whole   provide assistance when needed.
and demonstrate to the customers that          generation of bankers whom have only
their bank is on their side. These are the     worked in the boom times. With branch-      DIGITAL OPENINGS AND ONBOARDING:
customers whose relationship with the          es closed and many customers feeling        A BIG OPPORTUNITY
bank extends beyond the basic deposit          financial distress, banks need to pivot     One of the most important things that
account, generating fee income and con-        the way they connect.                       banks can do to engage with customers
tributing stability in the credit portfolio.       So far, banks seem to be falling        is to improve the inadequate process of
                                               short — even when it comes to providing     digital account opening and onboarding.
CREATING CAPABILITIES                          simple services that customers want,        While it is a priority during the pandemic,
This is the time for banks to harness data     such as balance updates via email or        these capabilities will also be essential
that create a holistic view of what cus-       text. (See Figure 2.)                       for the future. Afterall, consumers are
tomers want, how they act, where they              These challenges are likely to          interacting with brands like Zoom, Ama-
spend and what they need. Metrics like         remain even after the virus retreats.       zon and Seamless more frequently than
deposit stickiness, CD runoff and credit       Fewer than half of people shopping for      ever in their day-to-day lives and their
risk can help the bank paint a portrait        a checking account say they’re likely to    sophisticated digital engagement with

FIGURE 2: BANKS AREN’T MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS IN THE CRISIS

                                          Bank Features: Most Useful vs. Implemented

                                                       Most Useful     Implemented

 35%
 30%
 25%
 20%               21%
                                   18%           18%
 15%
                                                                 13%                          13%
 10%                               10%                                         12%
                                                                                                             9%
                   7%                            6%                            7%
  5%
                                                                 3%                           3%             3%              3%
  0%                                                                                                                         1%
         Dedicated       Text/email Reimburse      Budget              Customer        Regular         Virtual      Mortgage
          banker          balance OD/insufficient optimizer             support       COVID-19        finance       payment
                          updates    fund fees                          via text        policy         advice        deferral
                                                                                       updates

Sample: FABB shoppers week 16/17 (N=212)
Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | COVID Pulse Survey

7 | SUMMER 2020
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
COVER STORY

FIGURE 3: LESS THAN HALF OF CONSUMERS SAY THEY ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO
BRANCHES ONCE COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED

                                            Likelihood to Return to Branches
                                                                                                                                                                                     Novantas estimates
                                   (week 1=3/30 to 4/5, week 18 = 7/27 to 8/2)
                                                                                                                                                                                       current attrition
  Somewhat/Very likely                                Neither likely nor unlikely                                       Somewhat/Very unlikely                                       rates are above 50%
 60%                                                                                                                                                                                  for accounts that
                                                       53%
                                                                51% 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                       originate in the
 50%               47%
                                     49% 50%
                                                                                 48%                                                        48%                                        digital channel.
                                                                                                              45% 46%
                            42%                                                            43%                                                                            42%
          41%                                                                                                                     40%                 40%
 40%                                                                                                37%                                                                            these companies sets the bar in terms
                                                                                                                                                                  36%              of expectations. Banks must raise that
                                                                                                                                  35%
                                              32%                                                                                                                                  bar quickly, especially when it comes to
          30%               31%                                                            31%                                                          32% 33%
                                     29%                                         29%                33% 30%                                                                        onboarding and personalization.
                                                       28%                                                              28%                   29%
 30%               27%                                                                                                                                                      29%
                                                                25% 26%                                                                                          31%
                                                                                                                                                                                        Unfortunately, too many banks are
                                                                                                    30%                                                 28%                28%     still offering sub-par digital service. As
          28%               28%
                   26%                                                                    26%                                                                                      a result, Novantas estimates that current
                                                                                                              25% 26% 26%                                                          attrition rates are above 50% for accounts
 20%                                                           23% 24% 23%                                                                   23%
                                     22%                                                                                                                                           that originate in the digital channel.
                                                       19%                                                                                                                         Furthermore, customers encounter far
                                              18%
                                                                                                                                                                                   too many pain points during the process
 10%
                                                                                                                                                                                   — from application to account funding to
                                                                                                                                                                                   setting up direct deposit. (See Figure 4.)
                                                                                                                                                                                        Although these issues are difficult to
   0%                                                                                                                                                                              solve, customization and personalization
                                                                                                                                                                                   can also help create a bond once the
        Week 1
                 Week 2
                          Week 3
                                   Week 4
                                            Week 5
                                                     Week 6
                                                              Week 7
                                                                       Week 8
                                                                                Week 9
                                                                                         Week 10
                                                                                                   Week 11
                                                                                                             Week 12
                                                                                                                       Week 13
                                                                                                                                 Week 14
                                                                                                                                           Week 15
                                                                                                                                                     Week 16
                                                                                                                                                               Week 17
                                                                                                                                                                         Week 18

                                                                                                                                                                                   account is open. That may mean redi-
                                                                                                                                                                                   recting billboard advertising into more
                                                                                                                                                                                   personal experiences, such as sending
                                                                                                                                                                                   emails directly from a dedicated banker
Sample: FABB shoppers week 16/17 (N=212)                                                                                                                                           to making exclusive online offers that
Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | COVID Pulse Survey                                                                                                                           can deepen the relationship. The upshot:
                                                                                                                                                                                   corporate and retail customers have
                                                                                                                                                                                   distinct communication preferences. It
FIGURE 4: DIGITAL ACCOUNT OPENINGS ARE FULL OF JARGON AND OTHER PAIN POINTS                                                                                                        is the bank’s job to identify those prefer-
                                                                                                                                                                                   ences and meet them.
                 Most Challenging Parts of Opening an Account Online                                                                                                                    There is little doubt that the next few
                                                                                                                                                                                   months will be fraught with difficulties.
                                                                                                                                                                                   The good news is that advances in AI
                                                                                                                                                                                   and other technologies mean that banks
                                                                                                                                                                                   are in position to serve customers when
         33%                                         26%                                           23%                                                13%
                                                                                             Accessing the                                                                         they need help the most.
      Understanding                                Filling in                                                                                        It took a
                                                                                          necessary personal
     financial jargon                            forms online                                                                                        long time                                 Rick Spitler
                                                                                             information
                                                                                                                                                                                               Co-CEO, New York
                                                                                                                                                                                               rspitler@novantas.com

                                                                                                                                                                                               Kevin S. Travis
Sample: FABB shoppers who opened an account digitally (N=205)                                                                                                                                  EVP, Toronto/New York
Source: Novantas Customer Knowledge | FABB DAO Survey                                                                                                                                          ktravis@novantas.com

8|
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
SITTING DOWN
          with Novantas:
The Role of Marketing Mix Models
                  BY ROBIN SIDEL

9 | SUMMER 2020
THE DIGITAL RECKONING - Digital Prowess Modernizing Commerial Pricing Fintechs Enter Everyday Banking - Novantas
MARKETING

                             Vijay Viswanathan knows that it isn’t enough to win
                         customers with just great products and services. As an
                         associate dean and associate professor at Northwestern
                         University’s Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated
                         Marketing Communications, Vijay studies how consumers
                         make decisions and the corresponding implications for
                         marketing strategies across a range of industries. He also
                         helps companies move beyond traditional static marketing
                         programs to ones that are dynamic and responsive to today’s
                         customer demands. Those strategies will be even more
                         important as banks navigate the ways in which customer
                         behavior will change in a post-COVID-19 world.
                             Furthermore, the need to optimize marketing spend will
                         be critical in coming months as historically low interest rates
                         intensify cost pressures. A vibrant and enhanced marketing
                         mix model will help banks target the most valuable customers.
                             Novantas recently sat down with Vijay to talk about the
                         role of marketing mix models in banking today.

Q: What is the biggest value that                                                                 Q: Are banks using this data to their
marketing mix models can provide to                                                               advantage?
companies today?

A: Marketing mix models have been
                                                  Banks haven’t done a                            A: The issue has been banks haven’t
                                                                                                  done a good job leveraging the power of
around for more than three decades and
have extensively been used by retailers
                                                   good job leveraging                            their data. They tend to rely on marketing
                                                                                                  mix models that use highly-aggregated
and consumer-goods companies. While                 the power of their                            data rather than understanding the
huge strides have been made in devel-                                                             underlying motivations and preferences
oping more sophisticated approaches
and methodologies along with greater
computing power and data availability,
                                                           data.                                  of individual customers. They then use
                                                                                                  these aggregated models to figure out the
                                                                                                  return on investment and how to allocate
marketing mix modeling hasn’t changed                                                             resources. But when you sum everything
much over time from a conceptual point            has been difficult to appreciate the impor-     across segments and markets, you suffer
of view. At the core, these models help           tance of data and the capabilities needed       from aggregation bias. These aggregated
managers decide where to allocate their           to make use of that data. When you don’t        models also do not help you respond to
marketing resources to achieve their              have sufficient expertise in-house to take      changing consumer behaviors, especially
business goals.                                   the results from the analysis and translate     when the marketplace is subject to signifi-
                                                  them into action, then data is of little use.   cant external shocks, like a pandemic.
Q: Which industries are the most sophis-
ticated in using marketing mix models             Q: Where do banks rank?                         Q: What are the implications of that?
for valuable insight?
                                                  A: Banks have a great advantage over            A: Look at what happened in retail, even
A: The Amazons of the world are perhaps           traditional consumer goods companies            before COVID-19. Many retail giants
the most sophisticated. Companies that            in that they already have their customer,       closed shop because they failed to lever-
have a strong engineering and/or comput-          or first party, data. On the other hand, if     age the power of data to respond to their
er-science base understand the power of           I buy a soda from a convenience store, it       customers’ changing needs and relevant
data and technology. It is a part of their cul-   is difficult for the soda company to know       factors that influenced their purchase
ture, whereas for most other companies, it        that I am their customer.                       decisions and behaviors.

10 |
SITTING DOWN WITH NOVANTAS: THE ROLE OF MARKETING MIX

Q: How does the transition to digital
banking impact marketing mix models?

A: Well, digitization has now enabled               If you’re not in front of the customers with
many banks to deploy an omnichannel
marketing strategy. Marketing mix mod-             the right content when they are looking for a
els can provide managers a good idea of
which channels effectively drive individu-
                                                         product or service on their phone,
al consumer behaviors and, subsequently,
different marketplace outcomes, such as
sales, profitability, new customer acquisi-
                                               you have lost them.
tion and customer retention across time
and space. While marketing mix models
can include digital marketing efforts, they     A: We have now transitioned from dig-      money on paid media. You need to
can also include a whole range of custom-       ital marketing to dynamic marketing.       appear in front of the consumer like a
er characteristics, such as demographic         Here, you should have the capability to    magic genie with your best content
or psychographic variables, the firm’s          assimilate continuous feedback from        and service when the customer actually
marketing efforts in offline channels and,      the market so that you can finetune and    needs you. While digital marketing was
importantly, measures of brand equity.          optimize your marketing operations         about moving from share-of-voice to
                                                in almost real-time. You have to be so     share-of-attention, dynamic marketing
Q: What are some of the new types of            much more agile and responsive. It’s       is about moving from share-of-attention
marketing capabilities that are valuable        not enough to have a website with a        to share-of-influence.
to banks?                                       ton of information or spend loads of
                                                                                           Q: How does the domination of mobile
                                                                                           devices change marketing strategies?

                                                                                           A: Mobile is the dominant platform for
                                                                                           people to access and share information.
                                                                                           You have to understand the context
                                                                                           behind a human-mobile interaction first
                                                                                           so that you can push out the right content.
                                                                                           Compare it with stores and their shelves
                                                                                           a decade ago. If you didn’t have a product
                                                                                           on the shelf, you lost customers. In today’s
                                                                                           world, if you’re not in front of the custom-
                                                                                           ers with the right content when they are
                                                                                           looking for a product or service on their
                                                                                           phone, you have lost them.

                                                                                           Q: Let’s talk about your personal banking
                                                                                           habits. When is the last time you went to a
                                                                                           branch and what was it for?

                                                                                           A: I went to a drive-through ATM recently,
                                                                                           but that’s really rare. It’s been many months
                                                                                           since I walked into a branch. The last time I
                                                                                           went to get a physical bank branch was to
                                                                                           get a banker’s check. Today, I use my bank
                                                                                           app for just about everything: depositing
                                                                                           checks, transferring money, making invest-
                                                                                           ments and contacting customer service.

                                                                                                        Robin Sidel
                                                                                                        Director, New York
                                                                                                        rsidel@novantas.com

11 | SUMMER 2020
    Vijay Viswanathan | Associate Dean, Associate Professor at Northwestern University’s
    Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communications
RETAIL BANKING

THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER:
Traffic Patterns                                  BY BRANDON LARSON AND ANDREW HOVET

T
        he scramble to overhaul the retail   FIGURE 1: THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED TRAFFIC TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY
        distribution network is forcing
        bank teams to consider branch                                                  Activity by Market Type*
        closures that were unthinkable
        just a few months ago. Con-                                           Feeder            Hybrid            Work Center
        ventional wisdom about which
branches are most efficient, productive                                10%
and profitable has been turned upside as
Americans make radical changes in the
                                                                        0%
way they lead their lives.
    In many cases, the COVID-19 pan-
                                                                       -10%
demic has accelerated changes that
                                             Change in Weekly Visits

were already taking place. But those
changes are far from over and they                                     -20%
aren’t one-time events.
    Novantas believes that an ongo-                                    -30%
ing analysis of consumer movement
patterns can help banks as they enter                                  -40%
the next phase of branch closures. This
analysis will also be valuable as some                                 -50%
Americans begin the long transition
back to work from stay-at-home orders
                                                                       -60%
while others wrestle with new surges
in cases of COVID-19. Such data can
                                                                       -70%
be particularly helpful on an ongoing
basis as banks consider how to redis-
tribute resources and make real-estate                                 -80%
                                                                               3/9
                                                                              3/16
                                                                              3/23
                                                                              3/30
                                                                               4/6
                                                                              4/13
                                                                              4/20
                                                                              4/27
                                                                               5/4
                                                                              5/11
                                                                              5/18
                                                                              5/25
                                                                               6/1
                                                                               6/8
                                                                              6/15
                                                                              6/22
                                                                              6/29
                                                                               7/6
                                                                              7/13
                                                                              7/20
                                                                              7/27
                                                                               8/3

decisions at a time when purse strings
are tight due to interest rates that are
hovering at zero and rising credit risk.
                                             Note: Feeder — Primarily markets where people live, but commute to other markets for work;
THE SUPPLY / DEMAND SWITCH                   Hybrid — Markets where large populations both live and work; Work Center — Places that
The U.S. branch network has long been        have a high working population, particularly during the day, but few people live there. Often
a supply-driven business. Banks decid-       downtown areas or central business districts
ed where to build branches based on          *Markets Included: Atlanta GA, Baltimore MD, Buffalo NY, Los Angeles CA, Memphis TN,
market opportunity, traffic patterns and     Minneapolis MN, New York NY, Portland OR, San Francisco CA
competitive factors. In short, banking       Source: Novantas Analysis, NovaLocation, PlaceIQ

12 |
THE NEW BRANCH BAROMETER: TRAFFIC PATTERNS

was a local scale game where physical
convenience drove density of outlets.
    That was all changing even before
the COVID-19 pandemic swept the U.S.,
where banks have been closing branches
at a steady pace since the 2008 financial
crisis. The first wave was largely focused
on underperforming or “dead-on-arrival”
branches that were often unprofitable.
                                                  Accounts opened digitally                     Accounts opened in the
Banks then turned their attention to
low-performing or marginally-profitable
                                                  have a first-year retention                  branch have a first-year re-
locations characterized by lower deposit                    rate of                              tention rate as high as

                                                     50% 80%
levels and lower sales.
    Many banks were still in this phase,
which focused on low-growth commu-
nity and rural markets, before the pan-
demic hit the U.S. in March. It seemed to
be working: banks experienced limited
balance attrition and few lost new sales
in this phase because customers were            declines than others, for example.            such as those with outdoor restaurants.
already less dependent on branches                   The situation has been far differ-       Others may be best-suited as limit-
than they had been in the past.                 ent in work centers where traffic had         ed-service, appointment-only centers.
    Novantas has long believed that the         plunged by 70% as of late May. This is
next round of network rationalization           unlikely to return to near-normal levels
needs to move beyond the low-risk               any time soon since many companies            DIGITAL DECISIONS
closures of the past to high-deposit loca-      have already said that they won’t be          These traffic patterns can also play a role
tions in densely-branched urban and             headed back to the office until well after    as banks make decisions about engaging
suburban markets. Ultimately, branch            the end of the summer — or even next          consumers with digital capabilities.
visits will be infrequent and focused on        year. Furthermore, a growing number of        After all, customers who have been
advice and issue resolution — just like a       companies have announced that they            forced to stay home are now accustomed
twice-yearly visit to the phone store.          will permanently allow employees to           to digital interactions with their bank.
                                                work remotely.                                But banks historically have a first-year
TRAFFIC PATTERNS CAN DRIVE CURRENT                   Real-time tracking tools will be         retention rate of just 50% for accounts
AND FUTURE BRANCH DECISIONS                     increasingly important as markets             that are opened digitally compared with
Although banks have closed branches,            remain dynamic; this isn’t a one-time         as high as 80% for those that are opened
changed hours and directed customers            exercise. Banks that regularly monitor        in a branch.
to other channels during the pandemic,          traffic patterns in these work centers            Customers who live or work in areas
many of the changes in branch traffic have      can use them to make decisions about          that aren’t seeing a resurgence in traffic
been out of their control. Instead, it is the   branches in those areas. Once-prized          can be targeted for digital engagement
customers who have driven these new             locations may no longer be considered         if the bank decides to close branches
trends by following stay-at-home orders.        viable. On the flip side, anticipated         for good.
    Novantas has spent the past few             declines in real-estate prices could create       Banks can also enhance digital
months analyzing consumer movements             opportunities for banks that still want to    onboarding capabilities — a typical
across the country by plotting anony-           have a presence in these locations.           weak spot — for new customers who are
mous cell-phone signals on a base map.               The same will likely also be true for    acquired through these channels and
This dynamic data show where people             retail centers — particularly shopping        may no longer be driving to branch-
are shopping, working and visiting.             malls — as a wave of bankruptcies, store      dense areas.
    As of mid-June, visits to bank branch-      closings and liquidations pummel the
es and other retail locations were down         industry. In addition, many consumers                     Brandon Larson
30% from pre-pandemic levels, but off the       have grown even more accustomed to                        EVP, New York
April peak of nearly 50%. These figures         online shopping during the pandemic                       blarson@novantas.com
were highly variable, based on geography        and may be unlikely to return to physi-
and local market characteristics. Bank          cal stores. Banks may be better off put-                  Andrew Hovet
branches near retailers that were deemed        ting branches in shopping areas that are                  Director, New York
“essential” experienced fewer traffic           expected to see a resurgence of traffic,                  ahovet@novantas.com

13 | SUMMER 2020
Clipping
   the
Branch                                                             COVID-19 has rapidly accelerated the adoption of digital
                                                                   banking and created widespread uncertainty about the future
                                                                   of the branch network. Banks have scrambled to close branches,
                                                                   redirect customers and add digital capabilities as sales
                                                                   volumes tumble.
                                                                       Most banks are still being very cautious about shutting
                                                                   branches permanently. That could certainly change if cost
                                                                   pressures intensify due to rising credit losses and a slow
                                                                   economic recovery. Faced with fewer opportunities for physical
                                                                   banking, consumers will continue the shift toward other
         BRANCH PROFILE FOR RESPONDENTS                            channels, underscoring the importance of digital account
    Fewer than 100 branches                           22%          openings and personalized outreach in a virtual world.
          100-200 branches                            26%              Novantas is tracking these trends closely and conducting
          200-500 branches                            22%
                                                                   regular surveys about branch operations. The information
        500-1,000 branches                            17%
                                                                   below is based on a survey conducted in June that received
      1,000-2,500 branches                            13%
                                                                   responses from 46 financial institutions, representing roughly
Novantas SalesScape Comparative Analytics Survey closed 6/12
                                                                   18,000 branch locations.

                                                                   PANDEMIC TRENDS

                         Teller transactions are down sharply from late 2019 as branches closed or reduced hours of
                                                 operation, while digital sales are up sharply.

                              Decline in Teller Transactions                                                       Digital Sales

                   45%                                                                              40%    37%
                                                            41%
                   40%                                                                              35%
                   35%                          32%                                                 30%
                                                                                                                 26%
                   30%
  % of Responses

                                                                                   % of Responses

                                                                                                    25%
                   25%
                                                                                                    20%                                      19%
                   20%               19%
                                                                                                    15%
                   15%                                                                                                   11%
                   10%                                                                              10%                                 7%
                            5%
                   5%                                               3%                              5%
                                                                                                                                   0%
                   0%                                                                               0%
                         More than 41% to    31% to    21% to     11% to                                  1% to 21% to 41% to 61% to 91% to +121%
                           51%      50%       40%       30%        20%                                    20% 40%       60% 90% 100%

                          56% of banks said teller volumes are                                26% of banks saw digital sales increase by
                     14 down
                        |      by more than 31% from Q4 2019                                  more than 90%
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
        Of the branches now closed, banks are being cautious about shutting them permanently,
       but many are considering accelerating branch consolidations or expect their network to be
                                  reduced notably within two years.

                          May Remain Closed / Consolidated                         Branch Consolidation Considerations by Branch Network Size

                                                                               Over 1,000                 500-1,000         200-500      100-200         Under 100

                                                                                                                                                                       *Banks could answer more than once per selection
                 50%
                                               42%                                            40%                                      5%
                 40%
% of Responses

                                    35%                                                       35%
                                                                                                                                       9%
                 30%                                                                          30%                           2%

                                                                             % of Responses
                                                              23%
                 20%                                                                          25%                                                      5%
                                                                                                                           12%         9%
                                                                                              20%
                 10%                                                                                                                                   9%
                                                                                              15%
                        0%                                                                                                             9%              2%
                                                                                              10%                          14%
                                    0%     1% to 9% 10% to 19%
                                                                                               5%           2%                         7%              9%
                                                                                                            2%              2%
                                                                                               0%
                                40% of banks said they were                                             Delay      No plans, Considering Expect
                                considering accelerating planned                                       planned      reviewing accelerating network
                                branch consolidation / closures                                      consolidations network      plans will be reduced

                                                                    Banks regret not having certain procedures in place
     WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA                                        before the pandemic struck.
                     UNDER 100 BRANCHES                       100-200                                       200-500                         OVER 1,000
           Better call-center technology             More digital capability &                    Increased authority limits       Phone & internet-based selling
                                                     enablement
           Better outbound calling                                                                Instant issue at drive-thru      Flexible staffing
                                                     Shared banker laptops
           Cross training of branch staff                                                         Remapping of call center         Verification of ID over the phone
                                                     Chat, video conferencing                     lines into the branch            Appointment setting
                                                     Online appointment                           Plan to quickly move people      Work-from-home capabilities
                                                     banking                                      to areas that match skill set
                                                     Branch employees trained                     Mobile-acquisition programs
                                                     to cover call center

                                      How much smaller do you expect your branch network to be in two years?

                                            Over 1,000         500-1,000                      200-500      100-200        Under 100

                              50%                                                                   4%
                                                                                                    7%
             % of Responses

                              40%
                                                                    4%
                              30%                                   7%                              14%

                              20%                                   11%                             4%                      4%                    4%
                              10%                                                                   11%
                                                                                                                            7%                    7%
                                                                    7%
                                          4%                                                                                4%                    4%
                              0%
                                      No Change               1% to 5%                          6% to 10%             11% to 15%            16% to 20%
                                                               Smaller                           Smaller                Smaller               Smaller
     15 | SUMMER 2020

                                                          Source: Novantas SalesScape Comparative Analytics
COMMERCIAL BANKING

                            New
                       Strategies
                    TO MODERNIZE
                COMMERCIAL PRICING                     BY JACOB NYGREN AND MICHAEL RICE

                          Is a
                          40-year-old
                          pricing structure
                          really the best way
                          to attract customers?

                          C
                               ommercial-banking operations have retained what
                               Novantas believes is an outdated, labor-intensive pricing
                               structure that creates friction between bankers and clients.
                              The inherent problems of a system that has more than
                          2,000 price points, combined with growing external competi-
                          tion and a shift to digital transactions, means that banks need
                          to consider new pricing approaches.
                              Novantas estimates that an overhaul of commercial
                          pricing represents a revenue opportunity of nearly $4 billion

16 |
NEW STRATEGIES TO MODERNIZE COMMERCIAL PRICING

to banks, but only for institutions that         ture originally sought to balance bank        NEW PRICING STRUCTURES
have the foresight to embrace innova-            profitability and market needs within the     Novantas has identified at least four
tive pricing before weaker economics             regulatory limitations imposed by Reg Q.      promising structures that can re-make
take hold.                                       Legislators repealed the rule 10 years ago,   commercial pricing — just as they have
                                                 but there has been very little change to      done in other industries. Simplified
DECAY OF THE STATUS QUO                          the status quo.                               package pricing and subscriptions are
Today’s commercial-pricing structure has             Indeed, the burdens of this legacy        two that promote a simplified user expe-
evolved from the framework of Regulation         structure remain and are arguably as          rience and streamline the sales process
Q, the 1933 federal rule that prohibited         cumbersome today as ever before,              to promote deeper advisory-based client
the payment of interest on commercial            despite the many available alternatives.      interactions. Banks can also consider
deposits. At the time, bank-profitability        Essentially, commercial pricing has           customized pricing plans that use
models relied on the revenue generated           stagnated Essentially, commercial pric-       algorithms or link pricing directly to the
by these deposits to offset the costs of         ing has stagnated due to inertia even as      value it creates.
transaction activity.                            digital advances create new opportuni-            Under simplified package pricing,
    Earnings credit rates (ECR) took hold        ties for an overhaul.                         legacy constructs such as ECR can

                 PAIN
                POINTS
    No matter what their size, com-
     panies grapple with a tangled
   web of data about their banking
  services. Here are some key num-               Average pages of account        Average number of unique            Unique service line items
   bers, based on analysis of more                analysis statements per          service line items used           managed by most banks
 than 10,000 bank statements that                  month across all bank
      were provided by nearly 200                      relationships
   corporates and cover more than
                         60 banks.

Source: Novantas NDepth bank fee analysis data

as interest rates soared in the 1970s and            Corporates and bankers alike feel         be shelved in favor of direct interest.
1980s and banks gradually began adding           the pain points associated with com-          Complicated and cumbersome service
more transaction fees and services.              mercial banking pricing. In some cases,       line item pricing can yield to fixed-fee
Pricing schemes became more complex,             companies struggle to digest thousands        package pricing or all-in product pric-
required more time to manage and nego-           of pages of account analysis each month.      ing. By collapsing service line items
tiated relationship pricing became the           A simple goal to consolidate monthly          into a single package, banks can shift
rule rather than the exception.                  fees paid, compare monthly changes and        the perception of “nickel-and-diming”
    This ever-expanding complexity               understand how pricing compares across        customers into one that offers standard
introduced increased friction within             banks becomes a herculean task for the        features “free of charge.” With package
the sales process that continues to exist        typical treasury group that operates          pricing in place, banks can still selec-
today. In fact, a typical bank relationship      without intelligent fee-analysis software.    tively offer value-based add-on features
manager (RM) now spends an estimated                 On top of all that, near-zero interest    like enhanced reporting or industry-spe-
225 hours per year on lengthy price              rates and corporate belt-tightening tied      cific specialty offerings.
negotiations, addressing billing errors,         to the global pandemic are leading to              The “banking as a service” concept
describing the minutia of service line           increased scrutiny over bank fees. Disin-     draws on the pricing model used by
item pricing and evaluating how pricing          termediation by fintech organizations and     many software companies to better
compares (or more often, doesn’t direct-         slow growth in new treasury management        reflect value and promote deeper client
ly compare) with competitor banks.               fees and services further exacerbate the      integration. This model helps shift the
    The current cost-based pricing struc-        headwinds faced by commercial banks.          relationship dynamics from being purely

17 | SUMMER 2020
COMMERCIAL BANKING

CREATIVE
  PRICING                                BUNDLE/PACKAGE               SUBSCRIPTION                  CONTINGENT                 PERSONALIZED
   ACROSS                                    PRICING                     MODEL                       PRICING*               ALGORITHMIC PRICING

 INDUSTRIES                              Non-bank:
                                         New-car option
                                                                    Non-bank:
                                                                    Amazon Prime
                                                                                                  Non-bank:
                                                                                                  Investment
                                                                                                                             Non-bank:
                                                                                                                             Car insurance
       Banks have been slow to           packages                                                 banking fees
    modernize commercial-pric-                                      Bank:                                                    Bank:
     ing structures, but they can        Bank:                      Tiered online                 Bank:                      Broad and complex
      embrace new methods by             Cash                       banking platform              Receivables                relationships
    examining how other indus-           management for             (bronze, silver,              management
  tries have embraced creative           importer                   gold)
                 pricing models.
                                         BENEFIT:                   BENEFIT:                     BENEFIT:                   BENEFIT:
                                         Simplifies                 Simplifies                   Based on real or           Customized and
                                         purchase                   purchase                     anticipated value          unique

                                                                                                 *based on proactive
                                                                                                 role in billings and
                                                                                                 collections based on
                                                                                                 defined success criteria

   transactional to one that delivers more        ship data (risk, attrition, scoring) and        tioned to benefit as the industry expands
   value-based analytics, data and advice.        market benchmarks (pricing, penetration         beyond its historical domain of trans-
   Under this model, banks can put them-          to establish optimal, client-level pricing).    action execution into the value-added
   selves in the enviable position of being                                                       realms of data, analytics and advisory
   a transactional, informational, analyt-        THE ARGUMENT FOR MORE                           services. Improved pricing schemes will
   ical and advisory hub for their clients.       EFFICIENT PRICING                               encourage deeper client relationships
       The contingent pricing concept             By shrugging off the yoke of the past           and supporting technology will unlock
   seeks to directly tie pricing to value. Fees   and adopting modern commercial pric-            additional capacity, empowering a more
   are calculated based on measurable real        ing schemes, banks can introduce struc-         effective sales force.
   or expected benefits to the client. For        tures that more clearly reflect the value           Ultimately, these changes will herald a
   example, accelerated receivables can           of the business for the client. This type       new era in commercial banking as friction
   produce a measurable improvement in            of overhaul can simplify sales efforts,         in existing pricing schemes is reduced,
   days-sales-outstanding (DSO), which            promote efficient pricing and profit-           yielding greater operational efficiencies
   leads to quantifiable working capital          ability and offer a client experience that      and a restoration of economic equilibrium.
   benefits for the client. Or customers can      rivals fintech competitors.                         And in the long run, banks will be
   share in the revenue benefits that come            Sales personnel, now freed from the         compensated for the value delivered
   with commercial-card performance, such         shackles of complex price negotiations,         and transparency in pricing will effec-
   as customer penetration, higher average        can pivot to truly become advisory              tively restore bankers as collaborative
   spend or reduced fraud. This can cement        partners. Client interactions that were         business partners rather than potentially
   the banker as an advisory partner invest-      once centered around nitpicking line            perceived as exploitative vendors.
   ed in clients’ success.                        items can evolve into conversations of
       Finally, banks can use intelligent         how consolidating volumes can improve                         Jacob Nygren
   algorithmic pricing models to provide          pricing through economies of scale, how                       Principal, Chicago
   unique client-specific pricing that can be     new products benefit their organization                       jacob_nygren@treasurystrategies.com
   used for the entire book of business. This     and/or advisory discussions on process
   personalized approach to pricing uses vast     optimization.                                                 Mike Rice
   amounts of client behavior data (channel,          Financial institutions that revamp                        Managing Director, New York
   customer-service engagement), relation-        pricing structures will be well-posi-                         mrice@novantas.com

   18 |
Surge Deposits:
   How to Manage the Balance
   Sheet in a COVID-19 World
                                              BY MIKE JIWANI AND PETE GILCHRIST

M
        ore than $2 trillion of deposits   myriad scenarios that could develop in          A prudent approach can help main-
        have flowed into U.S. banks        coming months and years. At the heart       tain balance sheet stability through
        since early March, represent-      of this strategy is the need for banks to   the cycle. This involves determining
        ing an unprecedented surge.        understand the potential behavior of        financial objectives and constraints,
Spurred by government programs and a       these surge deposits, dictating how they    planning for multiple potential sce-
strong desire for liquidity by companies   could be put to use on the asset side.      narios, developing a coordinated and
and consumers alike, banks are now             This should involve developing          centralized action plan and developing
awash in deposits. The trend is drawing    detailed surge-deposit analytics to proj-   appropriate monitoring and gover-
attention from regulators and bankers,     ect structural and stressed liquidity, as   nance to make course corrections
creating new questions about balance       well as customer-level analytics to make    as necessary.
sheet management as old Treasury           informed estimates of balance behavior          Taking these steps now can help
models essentially become obsolete.        based on a vast array of data points        prevent the need for a panicked and
    Banks need to develop strategies       about the customer’s past holdings,         likely expensive overcorrection down
for managing the balance sheet under       current position and likely future path.    the line.

19 | SUMMER 2020
TREASURY

  FIGURE 1: TOTAL U.S. DOMESTIC DEPOSITS — Q4 2019                                                       A LONG LIST OF UNKNOWNS
                                                                                                         The months of uncertainty around
                                          Consumer | $6.9T      Commercial | $3.6T      Wealth | $2.5T   COVID-19 are unlikely to retreat any-
                                                 Small Business | $1.2T    Public Funds | $1.0T          time soon. Before the virus hit earlier
                                                                                                         this year, the banking industry had been
                                                                                                         experiencing a relatively stable deposit
                                                                   7%                                    environment. The Fed had signaled it
                                                                                                         planned to keep rates flat for the fore-
                                                       8%                                                seeable future, and while the deposit
                                                                                                         market was still active with accelerated
                                                                                                         money in motion, trends had become
                                                                                                         somewhat predictable. (See Figure 1.)
                                                                                                              But the industry has been anything
                                               16%           Deposits by Segment             45%         but stable since early March when a
                                                             (% of Total Deposits)                       large influx of liquidity started to enter
                                                                                                         the system. The Fed cut rates by 150
                                                                                                         basis points to zero in a matter of two
                                                                                                         weeks and companies planned for the
                                                                                                         worst by drawing down credit lines to
                                                                                                         shore up liquidity. These actions, com-
                                                                                                         bined with government programs such
                                                             24%                                         as the Payment Protection Program
                                                                                                         and stimulus payments, have fueled the
                                                                                                         surge in deposits. (See Figure 2.)
                                                                                                              Furthermore, the ongoing pandemic
 Source: Novantas Analysis, FDIC SOD report; Z1; Includes commercial and savings banks,
                                                                                                         has significantly, and perhaps perma-
 savings / lending associations, and credit unions
                                                                                                         nently, changed the way in which people
                                                                                                         and businesses conduct themselves in
  FIGURE 2: U.S. DEPOSIT BASE                                                                            seemingly every facet of life — a devel-
                                                                                                         opment that has turned past assump-
                                                         Total U.S. Domestic Deposits                    tions about deposit behavior on its head.
                                                                                                              The future behavior of these depos-
                                                      Baseline Deposits     Surge Deposits
                                                                                                         its is now at the heart of critical ques-
                                    $18
                                                                                                         tions banks are asking themselves. How
Total U.S. Domestic Deposits ($T)

                                                                                                         quickly will these surge deposits burn
                                    $17                                                                  down? What is the worst-case scenario?
                                                                                                         How can a bank make the distinction
                                    $16                                                                  between high- and low-quality deposits,
                                                                                                         given there are limited differences in
                                                                                                         product and cost between them in an
                                    $15                                                                  ultra-low rate environment?
                                                                                                              Sensitivity to rates will also be a major
                                    $14                                                                  factor. How will these deposits react when
                                                                                                         rates finally rise again? If rates go nega-
                                                                                                         tive, what actions should the bank take
                                    $13
                                                                                                         with respect to product design, pricing
                                                                                                         and marketing? Is it wise to be the first
                                    $12                                                                  mover or is it better to wait for others to
                                                                                                         act? How will deposit customers respond?
                          Ja -18
                         Fe -19
                         M 19
                         Ap -19
                         M r-19
                          Ju -19
                           Ju 9
                         Au 9
                         Se -19
                         O -19
                         N -19
                         De -19
                          Ja -19
                         Fe -20
                         M -20
                         Ap -20
                         M r-20
                          Ju -20
                           Ju 0
                                  0
                                1
                              l-1

                                2
                              l-2

                                                                                                              Finally, banks will need to consider
                            b-

                            n-

                            n-
                             c
                            n

                           ar

                           ay

                            g
                            p
                            ct
                           ov
                             c
                            n
                            b
                           ar

                           ay
    De

                                                                                                         changes to models underlying asset/
 Note: Total H8 deposits grossed up to equal total U.S. domestic deposits, which includes                liability management, funds transfer
 deposits from commercial and savings banks, savings & loan associations and shares from                 pricing and stressed liquidity, as well as
 credit unions                                                                                           the overall impact on the institution’s
 Source: Novantas Analysis; H8 Report                                                                    asset strategy.

  20 |
SURGE DEPOSITS: HOW TO MANAGE THE BALANCE SHEET IN A COVID-19 WORLD

    Because they don’t know how these                                                     type when the rate cycle turns. Banks
surge deposits will behave, most bankers                                                  will need to reevaluate their Treasury
have invested these funds in short-term,                                                  models and apply new assumptions and
low-yielding assets. While longer-term                                                    overlays to account for the recent surge
assets provide limited incremental value                                                  in deposits.
at the moment, yield curves could steep-                                                      Next, banks should evaluate margin-
en as the economy stabilizes. That means                                                  al initiatives to affect the balance sheet.
banks could leave valuable net interest                                                   These initiatives should be evaluated
margin on the table if they don’t optimize                                                centrally so that they can be compared
their balance sheets. The impact could
be significant: Novantas has found that        Keeping a relatively                       across lines of business and relative
                                                                                          to Treasury actions. This will help the
balance sheet optimization can be worth
as much as 50 bp in return on equity or
                                                 stable balance                           bank determine things like the need
                                                                                          and capacity for incremental funding
two percentage points of earnings per          sheet position that                        and which funding sources (customer or
share growth — all while staying within                                                   non-customer) are most efficient.
the bank’s risk appetite.                     optimizes through the                           Of course, things rarely go as

HOW BANKS HAVE BEEN REACTING
                                                  cycle is ideal.                         planned, so banks must be prepared
                                                                                          to pivot as necessary. Banks should
Banks are already pursuing different                                                      monitor performance and the economic
strategies to manage these surge depos-                                                   environment closely, developing early
its. Some bankers are happy to have                                                       warning indicators that suggest when
them because they provide much-need-                                                      changes are needed. Additionally, the
ed liquidity relief. Others are worried                                                   bank should install an appropriate
these surge deposits will crimp NIM as            The key to success is around prepar-    governance structure to ensure it is
loan growth slows and there isn’t a pro-      ing for multiple potential scenarios and    in a position to make course correc-
ductive place to put these excess depos-      being nimble enough to pivot as needed.     tions as necessary. This will limit any
its to use. Some are even worried these                                                   “whiplash” a bank may incur as it tries
deposits will affect capital and liquidity    STRATEGIES TO MANAGE THE                    to manage its balance sheet through a
ratios, believing they may be forced to       BALANCE SHEET                               tumultuous environment.
raise capital at an expensive time. This      Novantas believes that banks can best           The uncertainty gripping the
is driving some banks to move deposits        manage these uncertain times by first       industry today requires that banks take
off balance sheet and/or make more            identifying their financial objectives.     a thoughtful approach and prepare
aggressive rate cuts to reduce balances.      What is the bank looking to optimize? It    for a range of scenarios to manage the
     Additionally, banks are beginning        may be earnings growth, return on equi-     current surge in liquidity. Proper prepa-
to question the near-term value of low-       ty and/or some other goal and it likely     ration can ensure banks aren’t left in a
cost core deposits if rates stay low for an   involves optimizing in the near-term        sub-optimal balance sheet position for
extended period. Others are willing to        while not sacrificing long-term success.    whatever lies ahead.
invest in the key capabilities required to    The bank must do this while continuing          Advanced institutions already are
win core customers, betting the deposits      to operate within its risk appetite, with   analyzing deposit behavior at the custom-
and associated fees will put them in a        a particular focus on capital, leverage,    er level for both retail and commercial
better position if and when the economy       liquidity and interest-rate risk.           lines of business, enabling banks to be
returns to some sort of normal state and          Once the goal is identified, the bank   more surgical about pricing and targeting
rates begin to rise.                          needs to prepare for a number of poten-     decisions. For example, which products
     Whatever strategy a bank is taking,      tial scenarios. Novantas recommends         and customers would have the lowest
the last thing a bank should do is take       that these scenarios include a V- and/      balance impact from reducing rates?
drastic actions only to overcorrect down      or U-shaped recovery, a prolonged               In other words, the more granular,
the line. Keeping a relatively stable         low-rate environment — such as 0% for       the better.
balance sheet position that optimizes         the next three years — and a period of
through the cycle is ideal. Uncertainty       negative rates.                                         Mike Jiwani
in the future has only made this task             Each scenario should include projec-                Director, New York
more challenging: without a clear sense       tions of funding needs (based on expect-                mjiwani@novantas.com
of what will happen in the future, it is      ed loan growth and credit performance)
hard to project how the balance sheet         and how deposits will behave. This                      Pete Gilchrist
will react and what actions are needed        should include estimates of burndown                    EVP, New York
to optimize.                                  rates and analysis of betas by deposit                  pgilchrist@novantas.com

21 | SUMMER 2020
THE CD CYCLE:
   Managing Runoff
    with Customer
     Treatments
        With rates hovering at zero, how do you keep
       customers who have been getting more than 150
       basis points on their deposits for the past year?

             More importantly, do you want to?
22 |
THE CD CYCLE: MANAGING RUNOFF WITH CUSTOMER TREATMENTS

  CD portfolios are on pace to run off 40% of balances over the course of a year. That would
 be modestly higher than levels seen in 2007-2009. The runoff is driven by low rates and the
desire of customers to switch from term deposits to liquid savings. This proprietary snapshot
      from Novantas’ Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) platform shows the trend.

                                                Annualized CD Growth | All Terms

                                          Annualized Growth             4-Week Rolling Average

20%

10%

  0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

            Quarterly Weekly
-60%        CDA data CDA data
             1Q19
             2Q19
             3Q19
             4Q19
          1-Feb-20
          8-Feb-20
         15-Feb-20
         22-Feb-20
         29-Feb-20
          7-Mar-20
        14-Mar-20
        21-Mar-20
        28-Mar-20
          4-Apr-20
         11-Apr-20
         18-Apr-20
         25-Apr-20
         2-May-20
         9-May-20
        16-May-20
        23-May-20
        30-May-20
           6-Jun-20
         13-Jun-20
         20-Jun-20
         27-Jun-20
            4-Jul-20
          11-Jul-20
          18-Jul-20
          25-Jul-20
          1-Aug-20

Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, July ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity

 In the past, banks that sought to reprice these time deposits as quickly as possible
 — for as little as possible — later discovered that strategy didn’t work. Not only did
 they see large outflows, but they later had to pay more to re-acquire these deposits
when rates rose. Banks that can retain these deposits now when they are inexpensive
   (but not the cheapest in the market) can reap the benefits over the longer-term.

23 | SUMMER 2020
RETAIL BANKING

            More than 60% of current CDs are priced above 1.5%, according to Novantas research. Many
            of those customers will feel “sticker shock” when they consider choices for those maturing
                      funds. Banks need to consider multiple strategies for these customers.

                           STANDARD RATE DISCIPLINE                   SHIFT TO MMDA                            SLOW PLAY EXCEPTIONS
               Lower rate sheet rates in line                Consider proactive shifting of             Customers with prior exceptions
               with competitors                              promo CDs into MMDA/Savings                have self-identified (sometimes
               Avoid ‘area of indifference’ —                to lean into market trends and             with banker assistance) as rate
               worst place to be is ‘not the best,           customer preferences                       sensitive
               not the worst’                                Short-duration offers can help             These clients are at highest risk
                                                             shift deposits while improving             for near-term attrition, but
                Acquisition rates dampened for
                                                             retention, delivered on a back             depending on other
               now but likely to return as excess            pocket or proactive basis                  characteristics may be long-term
               liquidity flows out and branch                                                           persistent
                                                             Cashable CDs provide similar
               traffic rebounds
                                                             outcomes if available

                                          Since not all CD customers are alike, banks need to assess
                                              their anticipated behavior before the CDs mature.

                                                              Term Renewal Segmentation

                                         Term Auto-Renewal
                           Likely                                 Not Likely
                    Low

                                                                                                        EXPECTED BEHAVIOR
                                                                                     Likely to auto-renew at go-to rate/term
                                                                                     Not likely to auto-renew, likely to respond to term switch offer

                                                                                     Not likely to auto-renew or respond to term switch offer
Price Sensitivity

                                                                                                     ILLUSTRATIVE TREATMENT
                                                                                     No additional treatment
                                                                                     Provide term offer with higher rate than current on-sale
                                                                                     Provide savings offer to retain balances in the bank
                    High

    Source: Novantas Comparative Deposit Analytics (CDA) Database, July ‘20 | Simple average used to protect participant anonymity

    24 |
25 | SUMMER 2020
CHECKLIST FOR
EFFICIENT
CONSUMER
DEPOSIT
GROWTH
The value of core, relationship-based sticky consumer deposits can’t be
underestimated in today’s banking environment.
Still, many banks aren’t taking advantage of analytics that can help
avoid costly errors and improve their mix of high-value deposits as they
navigate this unprecedented period.
This checklist for efficient deposit growth can go a long way in guiding
banks to make the most of their valuable deposits.

26 |
Determine segments with favorable, higher-value
                   CHOOSE                         retention profiles
                   Identify long-term sticky
                   deposits                       Calculate duration analytics for portfolio products and
                                                  segments

                                                  Analyze primary DDA relationships and core deposit
                   TRACK                          growth versus single-service hot money
                   Assess loyalty versus hot
                   money                          Leverage flow-of-funds level detail to spot new versus
                                                  existing money and attrition risk

                                                  Analyze weekly rate position and understand true
                                                  market clearing rates across acquisition and portfolio
                   COMPARE                        balances by peer set and industry totals
                   Align results to timely
                   peer data                      Explain variances to core industry metrics, providing
                                                  executives a clear picture into key bank performance
                                                  versus the market

                                                  Monitor customer cross-sell behavior over time and
                   DEEPEN
                                                  retention impact
                   Measure cross-sell activity,
                   including new-to-bank          Analyze the effectiveness of promotional campaigns,
                   households                     including marginal cost of funds

                                                  Efficiently target new money without cannibalizing the
                   OFFER                          existing book
                   Define offers to deepen
                   relationships, gather and      Pinpoint the best market and product to launch a
                   maintain deposits              campaign, tracking key competitor and market
                                                  reference rates across both direct and branch channels

27 | SUMMER 2020
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