The Defense Budget in Historical Perspective - Senior Defense Analyst May 21, 2019 - Bloomberg LP
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The Defense Budget in Historical Perspective Senior Defense Analyst May 21, 2019 ©2019 BGOV LLC
2
Introduction
Every year, usually weeks or months after the president’s budget
request, the Department of Defense publishes the annual National
Defense Budget Estimates, known as the Green Book because of
its green cover.
The Green Book contains a wealth of data on DOD’s budget,
going back in some cases as far as 1940. The book is published in
PDF form and key datasets are provided in Excel format. The data can be extremely useful in
putting defense expenditures in historical perspective. Many of the budget figures are
provided in both nominal dollars as well as estimated constant 2020 dollars (adjusted for
inflation) so that apples-to-apples comparisons can be made over time.
Data breakouts include by military department, public law title, major force program and as a
percentage of overall federal spending and of the U.S. economy. The following charts are
produced by Bloomberg Government based on the Green Book data. All years are fiscal
years, all dollars are constant FY 2020 dollars and numbers are budget authority unless other
wise noted. Figures for fiscal 2020 and beyond are from the fiscal 2020 budget request.
©2019 BGOV LLC3
Historical DOD Budget Authority
Currently more than mid-1980s levels, but less than the peaks of Afghan/Iraq operations
Defense Budget Authority
FY 2020 estimated constant dollars in billions
$900
Iraq/Afghanistan operations
$800
Korean War
$700 Reagan buildup
Vietnam War
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Note: FY 2020 figures are requested; 2021-2024 are DOD projections
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 6-8
©2019 BGOV LLC4
Service Breakdown
Army, Navy and Air Force tend to have about equal shares of the budget
FY 2020 estimated constant dollars in billions
Department of the Army Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Note: FY 2020 figures are requested; 2021-2024 are DOD projections. Marine Corps budget in included in the Department of the Nav y
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 6-10
©2019 BGOV LLC5
Title Breakdown
Operation & Maintenance is a steadily growing portion of the budget
Defense Budget Authority
FY 2020 estimated constant dollars in billions
Military Personnel Retired Pay, Defense Operation and Maintenance
Procurement RDT&E Military Construction
Family Housing Revolving and Management Funds Trust, Receipts, and Other
Placeholder for OCO
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023
Notes: Note: FY 2020 figures are requested; 2021-2024 are projected. RDT&E – Research, Development, Test and Evaluation; OCO – Overseas Contingency
Operations; Retired Pay included in Military Personnel account after 1985.
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 6-8
©2019 BGOV LLC6
Type of Forces
General purpose forces still consume the lion’s share but C3, Intel growing
Budget By Major Force Program
FY 2020 total obligational authority, estimated constant dollars in billions
Strategic Forces General Purpose Forces C3, Intel Mobility Forces
& Space
Guard & Reserve Forces Research & Dev't Central Supply & Maint Training, Medical & Other
Admin Support of Other Special Ops Forces Space
Nations
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Separate “Space” category added in FY 2017. Its relationship w ith the “C3, Intel and Space” category is unclear and may inclu de classified spending; Budget
numbers are Total Obligational Authority rather than Budget Authority
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 6-5
©2019 BGOV LLC7
Some Shifts in Priorities
C3, intel and space gaining in importance
Comparison of FY 2000 Budget and FY 2020 Budget Request
FY 2020 total obligational authority, estimated constant dollars in billions
$301
FY 2000 FY 2020
$161
$98 $90
$65 $81
$51 $47
$38 $41
$31 $26 $20
$11$15 $18 $18 $13 $13 $15
$2 $10 $6 $0
Strategic General C3, Intel Mobility Guard & Research Central Training, Admin Support of Special Space
Forces Purpose & Space Forces Reserve & Dev't Supply & Medical & Other Ops Forces
Forces Forces Maint Other Nations
Note: Separate “Space” category added in FY 2017. Its relationship w ith the “C3, Intel and Space” category is unclear and may include classified spending; Budget
numbers are Total Obligational Authority rather than Budget Authority
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 6-5
©2019 BGOV LLC8
Defense Spending Declines Relative to Economy,
GDP
Defense Spending as a Share of the Federal Budget and Economy
DOD budget as percentage of all federal spending DOD budget as a percentage of GDP
90% 40%
80% 35%
70%
30%
60%
25%
50%
20%
40%
15%
30%
10%
20%
10% 5%
0% 0%
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes: GDP – Gross Domestic Product
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 7-7
©2019 BGOV LLC9
Cost to Train, Equip & Deploy Troops is Rising
Troops Are More Expensive Than They Used To Be
Annual Cost Per Troop Total Active Troops
$600,000 4,000,000
3,500,000
$500,000
3,000,000
$400,000
2,500,000
$300,000 2,000,000
1,500,000
$200,000
1,000,000
$100,000
500,000
$0 0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Notes: Cost is total DOD budget authority in estimated constant 2020 dollars divided by total number active troops (including active Reserve and Guard).
Conscription ended in 1973 and the All Volunteer Force w as implemented.
Source: Department of Defense FY 2020 Green Book Table 7-5
©2019 BGOV LLC10
About the Analyst
Robert Levinson is a senior defense analyst with Bloomberg Government, covering rlevinson5@bloomberg.net
defense spending, sequestration, international sales opportunities for military +1 202 416 3380
equipment, and government contracting. He is a retired lieutenant colonel in the U.S. @levinsor
Air Force with more than 20 years of service. Prior to joining Bloomberg Government,
Levinson worked for Booz Allen Hamilton as a strategic communications consultant
and in government relations for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. He has a
bachelor’s degree from the U.S. Air Force Academy and a master’s from the University
of California, San Diego. He is also a graduate of Harvard’s program for Senior
Executives in National and International Security.
©2019 BGOV LLC11
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