The Daniels political era passes - State Affairs
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V28, N24 Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023
The Daniels political era passes
Daniels added,
Dysfunction in DC persuades “I have often
the former governor to take expressed a prefer-
ence for the citizen
a pass on the Senate race; servant approach to
public life. I believe
Trump endorses Banks that politics and
government are
By BRIAN A. HOWEY worthy pursuits,
INDIANAPOLIS – When it came to a which men and
decision, Mitch Daniels determined that spending women of good will
the next eight years campaigning and serving in should undertake if
dysfunctional Washington, D.C., with congressio- they can, not as a
nal gridlock was the ultimate deal breaker. life’s work or an end
Thus on Tuesday, the former two-term in itself, but to try
Indiana governor and to ensure that the
Purdue University presi- important realms of
dent slammed the door society – the private
on a political comeback. economy, our vol-
“I’ve decided not to untary associations,
become a candidate local communities
for the U.S. Senate. and neighborhoods,
With full credit and respect for the institution and and especially
those serving in it, I conclude that it’s just not families – can all
the job for me, not the town for me,” Daniels
said in a statement Tuesday morning. Continued on page 3
Specter of nuclear war
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS – The war that begins casually
almost always ends in a dramatically escalated fashion.
The American Revolution began with ragtag militias in
Massachusetts and ended up with the French Navy forcing “Jim Banks is running for the
the British to surrender at Yorktown. The American Civil
War had Union and Confederate forces marching row by U.S. Senate from the Great State
row into slaughter, particularly with of Indiana. Jim Banks is respect-
the introduction of the Gatling gun
in 1862. Submarines and guerilla ed by all, will never let you down,
warfare evolved during this five-
year conflict.
and has my Complete and Total
World War I commenced Endorsement.”
with an assassination and ended
with the invention of tanks and air - Donald J. Trump, endorsing
corps. World War II began with Pol- U.S. Rep. Jim Banks for the
ish cavalry facing German Panzer
tanks. It ended with two American U.S. Senate.
Page 2
Howey Politics Indiana
https://stateaffairs.com/
pro/indiana/
Brian A. Howey
Managing editor, Indiana Pro
atomic blasts that forced Japan to sur- near Putin’s dacha.
Alison Bethel render unconditionally. The Daily Beast reported that
Editor-in-chief I conjure these events and Ukrainian authorities are now saying
images because here in 2023, we find that Russia’s biggest cities are bound
ourselves once again on the nuclear to suffer attacks. “Internal escalation
Mary Lou Howey
straight-razor in a war that began of the war in Russia is inevitable,”
Editor
conventionally. Russian President said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser
Putin invaded Ukraine, figuring the to the Ukrainian president, told The
Scott Nixon former Soviet republic would fold in a Daily Beast.
Chief Operating Officer couple of weeks. Russian commanders Two weeks ago, President
packed their dress uniforms in antici- Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
pation of a rain of rose petals from and NATO agreed to send Abrams
Subscriptions “liberated” Ukrainians. and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The
HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Ukraine, with a so-far unit- German Leopards will be delivered
HPI Weekly, $350 ed NATO supplying increasingly more in a couple of months, in time for an
Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager sophisticated and lethal arms, is now expected Spring offensive that could
(765) 452-3936 telephone facing a long, genocidal slog as Rus- determine the fate of this brutal war.
groups@stateaffairs.com sian forces unleash an onslaught of These tanks have the ability to do
missiles and Iranian drones aimed at what the first key advocate of this
Contact HPI hospitals, power plants, schools and armored vehicle during World War I
civilian apartment complexes. Russia – First Lord of the Admiralty Winston
bhowey2@gmail.com
is using poorly-trained conscripted Churchill – envisioned, which is to
Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 troops as literal Wagner brigade can- break across trenched “no man’s
Washington: 202.256.5822 non fodder in Donbas. land.”
Business Office: 765.452.3936 Last month, former Russian When this conflict began
president Dmitry Medvedev, a top ally a little more than 11 months ago,
of President Putin who now serves there was a recollection of the 1943
© 2023, Howey Politics
as deputy chairman of the Security massive tank battle for control of the
Indiana. All rights reserved. Photo- Council, posted on Telegram: “It never Kursk salient, where a thousand Red
copying, Internet forwarding, faxing or occurs to any of the lowlifes to draw Army and Wehrmacht tanks mauled
reproducing in any form, whole or part, an elementary conclusion from this: each other in what is now Russia, Be-
is a violation of federal law without per- The defeat of a nuclear power in a larus and Ukraine. Eighty years later,
mission from the managing editor. conventional war can trigger a nuclear history is poised to repeat, albeit on
war. Nuclear powers have not lost a smaller scale ... we think.
Jack E. Howey major conflicts on which their fate This past week, the Bulletin
editor emeritus depended.” of the Atomic Scientists announced
That is just one in a continu- that its 2023 Doomsday Clock has
1926-2019
um of reckless nuclear saber-rattling been set forward to the closest to
from the Putin regime as it flounders catastrophe it has ever been, just 90
in its war with Ukraine, a conflict it seconds before midnight.
picked and is now losing. The Guard- The horrific war in Ukraine
ian reported that the Kremlin is now “has increased the risk of nuclear
deploying Pantsir defensive missile weapons use, raised the specter of
intercept systems around Moscow and biological and chemical weapons
Page 3
use, hamstrung the world’s response and (4) the destruction of a Ukrainian
to climate change, and hampered city, causing mass civilian casualties and
international efforts to deal with other creating terror to precipitate a swift sur-
global concerns,” the Bulletin stated. render — the same aims that motivated
“Russia’s thinly veiled threats to use the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and
nuclear weapons remind the world Nagasaki.”
that escalation of the conflict – by “Any response by the Biden ad-
accident, intention, or miscalculation ministration would be based not only
– is a terrible risk. The possibility that on how Russia uses a nuclear weapon
the conflict could spin out of anyone’s against Ukraine but also, more impor-
control remains high.” tant, on how Russia’s future behavior might be affected by
“No one can do this alone, but everyone can do the American response,” Schlosser adds. “Vladimir Putin
something,” said the Bulletin’s President and CEO Ra- can determine if, when, and where a nuclear attack occurs
chel Bronson. “We hope that the moving of the clock is a in Ukraine. But he cannot control what happens after that.
motivator that we all need to pay attention to these key The consequences of that choice, the series of events that
issues.” would soon unfold, are unknowable. One thing is clear,
Eric Schlosser, author of “Command and Control: after all my discussions with experts in the field: We must
Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illu- be ready for hard decisions, with uncertain outcomes, that
sion of Safety and Fast Food Nation” writes in The Atlantic: nobody should ever have to make.”
“Several scenarios for how Russia might soon use a nucle- Should we be losing sleep over this reckless
ar weapon seem possible: (1) a detonation over the Black rhetoric of the despot Putin and Dmitry Medvedev as this
Sea, causing no casualties but demonstrating a resolve to war worsens?
cross the nuclear threshold and signaling that worse may Well, perhaps.
come, (2) a decapitation strike against the Ukrainian lead- This is not a situation for overt panic, but reason-
ership, attempting to kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and able concern. It means having discussions with your family,
his advisers in their underground bunkers, (3) a nuclear friends and co-workers about what to do, where to go, and
assault on a Ukrainian military target, perhaps an air base how to communicate should such a crisis develop. v
or a supply depot, that is not intended to harm civilians,
Mitch Daniels, from page 1 Senate race.
At this writing, U.S. Rep. Jim Banks is the sole
candidate to announce for the Senate seat being vacated
flourish.
by Mike Braun, who is running for governor. “As I’ve said
“My one tour of duty in elected office involved,
before, I respect Gov. Daniels and I learned a lot from
like those in business before and academe after it, an
him when I served in the State-
action job, with at least the
house,” Banks said in a statement
chance to do useful things
Tuesday morning before meeting
every day,” Daniels said. “I have
with former British prime minister
never imagined that I would be
Boris Johnson. “I’m excited about
well-suited to legislative office,
the early momentum and support
particularly where seniority
for our campaign but we’ve got a
remains a significant factor in
long way to go. Over the next two
one’s effectiveness, and I saw
years, I’m going to work hard every
nothing in my recent explora-
day to make my case to Hoosier
tions that altered that view. Had
voters that I’m best prepared to be
I chosen to compete, given my
their conservative Senator in Wash-
age, I would have done so on
ington.”
an explicitly one-term basis. I
“I have the utmost respect for
would have returned any un-
the years of service Gov. Daniels
spent campaign funds to their donors, closed any political
has given to Indiana and wish him well in the future,” said
accounts, and devoted six years to causes I think critical to
NRSC Chairman Steve Daines. “I’m looking forward to
the long-term safety and prosperity of our country.”
working with one of our top recruits this cycle, Jim Banks,
Daniels’s decision capped more than a month of
to keep Indiana red in 2024.”
speculation after key ally Mark Lubbers tipped off Howey
U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz had expressed interest
Politics Indiana/State Affairs that he had moved away from
before Daniels explored a bid, and might do so again.
a potential third bid for Indiana governor to consider the
Informed and reliable sources close to Attorney General
Page 4
Todd Rokita tell Howey Politics Indiana that he likes his impact of the Daniels administration a decade after leaving
current job and will likely seek reelection in 2024. office, just as we did in 2006 on Gov. Evan Bayh and 2013
In addition to Spartz, the other potential factor on Gov. Frank O’Bannon.
in the race is Gov. Eric Holcomb, who said in December Last week, Daniels was on Capitol Hill talking with
that he has not ruled out a Senate bid, but such a de- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as Sens.
termination would not come until the Indiana General Todd Young, Mitt Romney, Tim Scott and Daines. It was
Assembly sine die expected in late April. Holcomb was a prelude to the most burning question in Hoosier – and
Senate candidate in 2016, facing then-U.S. Reps. Todd American – politics, which is whether My Man Mitch would
Young and Marlin Stutzman, when Gov. Mike Pence se- make a political comeback.
lected him to finish the term of He seemed uncertain,
Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann, who telling Politico, “I’m not the least bit wor-
resigned to become president of ried, honestly, about losing an election.
Ivy Tech. Holcomb went on to I’m worried about winning it and regret-
win a gubernatorial caucus by ting it for six years. I say this with great
the Indiana Republican Central respect for those who do it. But you
Committee when Donald Trump know, that doesn’t mean it fits me or fits
chose Pence to be his vice presi- me at this time of my life. So that’s what
dent nominee. this field trip’s about.”
Asked about a potential Daniels told The Hill, “I’ve
Senate candidacy in mid-Decem- always had action jobs, so I’ve always
ber, Holcomb responded, saying, had great admiration and respect for
“We’ll see.” people who follow the legislative path,
“I’ve been involved in but it’s not something I’ve done or,
some campaigns that have been frankly, seen myself doing. I’m just test-
16 months, and I thought that Then-Gov. Mitch Daniels with then-Indiana ing all that now because I’ve been asked
was early. And then I’ve been Republican Chairman Eric Holcomb at City to. People I admire have asked me to
involved in some that took aboutMarket. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) think about it, so I’m thinking.”
106 days, and I thought that A Club for Growth TV ad that
was rushed,” Holcomb said. “I’m going to do the job I’ve began airing in January was designed as a preemptive
got. That’s somewhat liberating. I’m very comfortable with strike to keep him out of the race. The ad derided the for-
that.” mer governor as a politician with “no fight left,” describing
Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl the former Purdue president as “an old guard Republican
reacted to Daniels’s announcement, saying, “His an- clinging to the old ways of the bad old days.”
nouncement today shows that there’s little room in today’s Among background chatter as Mitch Daniels con-
Indiana Republican Party for candidates who don’t pledge sidered (then ditched) a run for Senate: He’d skip a GOP
allegiance to Donald Trump before anything else. Daniels’s primary, run as an independent (Bangert, Based in Lafay-
‘no social issues’ mantra would have had a tough time ette). Daniels said he never considered that: “The election
winning a GOP primary in Indiana and the knives were wasn’t the issue. They might have made it ugly, but they
already drawn from groups saying that Daniels was a relic wouldn’t have made it close.”
of the past.” For Daniels, a return to politics in 2024 could have
Daniels is, arguably, the most cunning and paired him up on the ticket with former president Don-
influential Hoosier Republican of the 21st Century. After ald J. Trump, who is the current frontrunner for the GOP
turning down Gov. Robert Orr’s offer of Vice President- presidential nomination.
elect Dan Quayle’s Senate seat in 1988, he defeated a In his statement, Daniels said, “I’ve likewise tried
Democrat incumbent governor in 2004 on the way to two to keep in mind President Reagan’s observation that some
transformational terms. After the GOP failed to retake people seek public office to be something, others to do
control of the Indiana House in the 2008 election that saw something. My one tour of duty in elected office involved,
him win in a landslide, Daniels rectified that by setting in like those in business before and academe after it, an ac-
motion a strategy that not only had Republicans retaking tion job, with at least the chance to do useful things every
the House majority in 2010, but redrew maps the follow- day. I have never imagined that I would be well-suited to
ing year that have resulted in Republican super majorities legislative office, particularly where seniority remains a
since 2014. significant factor in one’s effectiveness, and I saw nothing
After leaving the governor’s office in January in my recent explorations that altered that view.
2013, he was named president of Purdue University by a “Had I chosen to compete, given my age, I would
board of trustees that he had appointed. have done so on an explicitly one-term basis,” he contin-
In the Feb. 23 edition of Howey Politics Indiana, ued. “I would have returned any unspent campaign funds
we’ll publish a special report looking back on the historical to their donors, closed any political accounts, and devoted
Page 5
six years to causes I think Rangers. Multiple sources have
critical to the long-term told HPI that if that opportunity
safety and prosperity of our presented itself, Daniels would
country.” jump at that opportunity.
He listed such is- Of the 10 baseball com-
sues as “saving the safety missioners, Kennesaw Mountain
net programs, so that we Landis and Ford Frick are native
can keep promises we have Hoosiers.
made to older and vulner-
able Americans and avoid Trump, Sen. Vance
a terrible national crisis of endorse Banks
confidence and betrayal” as U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance
well as firmly confronting (R-OH) endorsed Rep. Banks
“the aggression of a would- for Senate in Indiana. “We need
be superpower who holds in Purdue President Daniels with “Hillbilly Elegy” author more leadership in Washington
contempt the values of per- J.D. Vance in February 2017. (HPI Photo by Brian A. like Jim Banks. Jim puts the
sonal freedom and individual Howey) interests of our own country first,
dignity central to our na- like working to secure our border
tional success and our view of a just society.” He also lists from illegal immigration and illicit drugs and fentanyl,
securing the U.S. borders “without depriving the nation of standing up against Big Tech censorship and fighting for
the talent and energy that grateful immigrants can bring.” America First trade policies that support working families
Daniels concluded, saying, “And I would have with job creation right here at home,” Vance said. “Jim
tried to work on these matters in a way that might soften Banks will be the conservative force against Joe Biden’s
the harshness and personal vitriol that has infected our woke, inflationary agenda that wants to make mass am-
public square, rendering it not only repulsive to millions nesty a grim reality, make our communities less safe and
of Americans, but also less capable of effective action to harder for middle and working class families to put food on
meet our threats and seize our opportunities. the table. Jim is a product of the American Dream, like me.
“Maybe I can find ways to contribute that do not He represents the new wave of young conservative leader-
involve holding elective office,” he said. “If not, there is so ship of the Republican Party, and I look forward to working
much more to life. People obsessed with politics or driven with him in the U.S. Senate.”
by personal ambition sometimes have difficulty under- Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday
standing those who are neither. I hope to be understood endorsed Banks, saying, “Jim Banks is running for the
as a citizen and patriot who thought seriously, but not United States Senate from the Great State of Indiana. I
tediously, about how to be deserving of those labels and know Jim well, have seen him tested at the highest and
simply decided the U.S. Senate was not the only way.” most difficult levels, and WIN!” Trump wrote on Truth
One such opportunity could be in the arena of Ma- Social. “Strong on the Border, Crime, our Military and our
jor League Baseball, where Commissioner Rob Manfred’s Vets, Jim will fight for low taxes and regulations, Sanity in
contract is up this summer. Daniels is related via marriage Government, and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Jim
to Hall of Famer Billy Herman. He is also close to former Banks is respected by all, will never let you down, and has
President George W. Bush, a former co-owner of the Texas my Complete & Total Endorsement!” v
Mayor Henry files
continue with his political plans. That answer
came Monday when he filed for reelection.
“I’m proud of the progress we’ve made
for record 5th term to showcase Fort Wayne as the country’s
best mid-sized city by nearly every measure,”
Henry said. “And now is not the time to make
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
a change. We can be proud of what together
FORT WAYNE – Mayor Tom Henry had announced
we have accomplished, but we still have work to do. I’m
last summer that he would change course and seek an
energized by the momentum felt throughout every part of
unprecedented fifth term. Then came his DUI arrest and
our city and want to see through completion the exciting
guilty plea last fall and news that his wife, Cindy, was bat-
initiatives we’ve begun and those we will announce this
tling pancreatic cancer in October.
year.
So one of the big political questions leading up
“The pandemic and economic uncertainties have
to Friday’s noon filing deadline was whether Henry would
shown us the importance of steady leadership and direc-
Page 6
tion,” the Democrat mayor said. “What we need now,
more than ever, is executive experience and an ad-
ministration that knows how to get things done. I’m
motivated and committed to continuing to lead this
great City.”
Republican Councilmen Tom Didier, who de-
feated Henry for city council in 2003, and Jason Arp
have filed. Jorge Fernandez, a substitute teacher, has
filed as a Democrat.
When Didier announced his candidacy last
June, Allen County Republican Chairman Steve Shine
told WANE 15 that Didier is the presumptive nominee
for mayor in the Republican party. “He has a deep,
deep knowledge of city affairs, he has great connec-
tions with the neighborhoods, not just the third district,
but all neighborhoods,” Shine said. “He knows how city WRTV she was “horrified” at the brutal Memphis, Tenn.,
government runs. And because he has a record, he will police slaying of Tyre Nichols. “I thought how could we
be judged by his record, and it’s one that he and citizens have officers of the same race treat someone with no
around Fort Wayne can be very proud of.” humanity?” said Shackleford. “What are we doing here
Henry says his administration will continue to in Indiana that would prevent us from having that same
focus on public safety, neighborhood improvements, good type of interaction happen?” In 2021, state lawmakers
stewardship of taxpayer money, and the economic pros- unanimously passed a bill dealing with law enforcement in
perity the city has enjoyed during the mayor’s previous the wake of George Floyd’s death and called for police ac-
terms in office. “ countability. “What we got was de-escalation training. We
also got chokeholds being defined as a deadly weapon. If
Lafayette: Roswarski challenger emerges an officer got found with misconduct, he could be decerti-
Lafayette Mayor Tony Roswarski, heading toward fied. Another thing that we got is if an officer goes from
a run for his record-tying sixth term in 2023, will have one agency to another, their record will follow them,” said
some competition. Benji Milanowski, a nurse with the Shackleford.
Tippecanoe County Health Department, filed Monday to
run for Lafayette mayor as a Libertarian (Bangert, Based Evansville: Terry files for Democrat mayor
in Lafayette). Milanowski, a 39-year-old Purdue graduate, Democrat Stephanie Terry filed Tuesday at the
said Monday that he hasn’t had a problem with Roswar- Election Office where she formally began her candidacy
ski’s performance as mayor. But he said he saw the Nov. for Evansville mayor (WFIE-TV). Terry says her main
8 election as an opportunity. “To be perfectly honest, I’m focuses are improving education, working on public
running largely just so that people are aware that there safety by addressing poverty and mental illness, provid-
are other options,” Milanowski said. “I don’t have any seri- ing support to small business, and improving equity and
ous forethought that there’s going to be a huge turnout diversity throughout the city. She also wants to improve
of Libertarians or anything of that nature. But I just want the sidewalks. Terry is the first the Democratic candidate
people to know there are these other alternatives and to to run for mayor since 2015. “Number one I think the
please find what fits them appropriately.” Milanowski is a opportunity has presented itself,” says Terry. “I definitely
Valparaiso native who came to the community as a Purdue think this year a woman is going to take that office. I think
student. He earned two Purdue degrees, including one in that’s going to be something that again that’s historic and
nursing. The 2023 municipal campaign will be his first run an opportunity again for fresh
for political office. He said his campaign will include talk- perspective to lead the city.”
ing about Libertarian takes on conservative fiscal policies The other declared candidates
and more liberal social policies. “In the history of Lafay- are Republican Vanderburgh
ette and its mayors, they’ve largely done a good job,” County Commissioner Cheryl
Milanowski said. “I honestly feel that way about Tony Musgrave and Natalie Rascher.
Roswarski, as well. He’s done admirably. I’ll say I think I Terry’s early endorsers include
would do certain things differently. And I look forward to former Evansville Mayor Jona-
letting people know that.” As of Monday, no other candi- than Weinzapfel. There was no
dates have filed to run for mayor. Democrat challenger to Mayor
Lloyd Winnecke in 2019. Win-
Indianapolis: Shackleford on Nichols necke is not seeking reelection.
State Rep. Robin Shackleford, who is challeng- Winnecke told HPI on
ing Mayor Joe Hogsett in the Democratic primary, told Wednesday that Rascher has
Page 7
raised $100,000 and drew 230 people at a women’s people can just get out and they can relax. We don’t have
luncheon. “Since declaring Dec. 3, Natalie is enjoying a an ordinance that says you can’t have beer in our parks.
groundswell of support. She has my backing.” You can bring your beer or wine and have a good time and
sit with your friends you haven’t seen, in a different set-
Terre Haute: Bennett progress ‘exploding’ ting.”
Halting a population decline and increasing
personal income are among immediate goals for the city East Chicago: Copeland to seek reelection
of Terre Haute, Mayor Duke Bennett said Thursday in a Mayor Anthony Copeland joined the growing list
2023 City Update (Greninger, Terre Haute Tribune-Star). of municipal officials seeking reelection this year. Copeland
Bennett is seeking a filed his candidacy papers in January. He is being chal-
fifth term and so far Pat lenged in the May 5 Democratic primary by Clemmie T.
Goodwin has filed as a Jones Jr., an East Chicago Democrat, and East Chicago
Democrat. Goodwin ran City Clerk Mary Leonard Morris who filed her own mayoral
as an independent in candidacy last month.
2019, losing to Bennett
by just 216 votes. “We Carmel: Nelson files a Democratic nod
really need to invest Carmel City Councilor Miles Nelson officially
in ourselves: Parks, launched his Democratic mayoral campaign this week.
infrastructure which is “I love this city and what it’s given to me and my family.
connected with street I’m extraordinarily passionate about the people who live
improvements, new here, and the ways we support one another,” Nelson said.
gateways [at I-70 and “Under the leadership of Mayor Brainard, we have seen
U.S. 41 and Indiana remarkable population growth and development as Carmel
46/U.S. 40] and work- has transformed into a city that leads our region in nearly
force development and every quality of life, safety, recreation and inclusivity
housing,” said Bennett during his update. “We need to measure. We are nationally recognized as one of the best
build more houses, make this a place people want to be places to live in the country. I’m running for mayor so we
and increase household income through better job oppor- can continue to keep Carmel moving forward.”
tunities. That is where we will all be successful,” Bennett
said. Zionsville: Stehr touts 15-year plan
Republican John Stehr shared a three-part com-
Plymouth: Mayor Senter to retire prehensive plan for the next 15 years for the town of
The city of Plymouth will have a new mayor next Zionsville. Stehr unveiled his “Zionsville 2040” goals in a
year for the first time in a decade and a half. Four-term series of videos on his campaign’s social channels. “When
incumbent Mark Senter will not seek another term (Pe- I set out to run for mayor, I did it with a purpose – I want
terson, WNDU-TV). As a detective for the Indiana State to make Zionsville more competitive with nearby Central
Police, Senter worked on the Pelley murders and others, Indiana towns when it comes to economic growth while
yet he’s leaving his current job in politics, in part, because preserving the charm that is uniquely ‘Zionsville,’” Stehr
people are mean. “It’s time for somebody else to step said. “The goals and priorities outlined in my ‘Zionsville
up. I just turned 67 myself and, you know, things have 2040’ plan are how my administration will achieve that
changed in the last couple years with social media and the purpose.” Stehr’s ‘Zionsville 2040’ includes specific goals in
way people are. They can be mean,” Mayor Senter told three priority areas: Public Safety, Growth and Economic
16 News Now. We had a murder here two years ago, of a Development, and Marketing and Communication. The
nine, of an 11-month-old and I got this awful email, that Stehr campaign released three videos addressing each
just was very nasty.” priority area over the course of several weeks.“Each of
Senter says being mayor these priority areas: Public Safety, Growth and Economic
has been like riding a roller Development, and Marketing and Communication, are
coaster. Ten days into his first a reflection of the conversations that I have had with
term he was faced with serious literally thousands of people throughout my campaign so
flooding and says three of the five far,” Stehr said. “As the campaign continues to progress, I
worst floods in Plymouth history look forward to continuing to share my vision for Zionville’s
came on his watch, although that future and hearing more from my neighbors about the
helped clear a path to create what Zionsville they imagine for the next generation.”
he calls his “baby” River Park
Square, a community gathering Charlestown: Jackson declares for GOP
point that now hosts the Mayor’s Republican Ruthie Jackson will challenge Charles-
Month of Music event. “I think town Mayor Treva Hodges in the 2023 municipal election
Page 8
(News & Tribune). Jackson, the president of the Charles- Braun releases report on
town City Council, has filed to run for the mayoral seat. his Senate accomplishments
Hodges, the Democratic incumbent, has held the seat U.S. Sen. Mike Braun released a report detail-
since 2020 and is seeking a second term in office. The ing his Senate office’s accomplishments for the 117th
Republican is serving her fourth year on the city council, Congress (2021-2022) including leading
and she has been council president for three of those 19 bills that became law, responding to
four years. Jackson is also the deputy trustee at the over one million constituent requests, and
Charlestown Township Trustee’s Office, and she is introducing measures to stand for Hoosier
the director and founder of the North Clark County values in Washington. Individual reports
Outreach Center, a local food bank. “I’m a hometown on his top issue areas including protecting
girl,” Jackson said. “I have put my heart and soul in the unborn, supporting our veterans, and
Charlestown in different aspects of the town. I just tackling the opioid epidemic can be found
think it’s time. I never had aspirations to be mayor, but on Senator Braun’s website under Work-
being on the city council and seeing that side of it, I ing for Hoosiers. “Hoosiers sent me to D.C.
just think it’s time that I offer the city what I have to to get results, and I’m proud to say that
offer.” in the last two years I’ve led 19 bills to be
signed into law, responded to over one
Governor million requests from Hoosiers, and stood up for Indiana
values of faith, family, and community in Washington.”
Crouch testifies for SB 1
Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch testified in front of the RNC
Senate Appropriations Committee in support of Senate Bill
1, legislation which will strengthen the direction Indiana Hupfer loses RNC vice chair on 3rd ballot
takes in assisting Hoosiers suffering with behavioral health INGOP Chairman Kyle Hupfer lost the Republi-
issues, including mental illness and addiction. Authored by can National Committee vice-chair vote on third ballot to
Sen. Michael Crider, R-Greenfield, SB 1 will transform the South Carolina’s Drew McKessick 90-76 (Howey Politics
current 988 Crisis Hotline into 988 Response Centers and Indiana). Indiana RNC Committeeman John Hammond III
direct Indiana’s Family and Social Services Administration on Hupfer losing 3rd ballot for RNC vice chair: “Kyle did
to apply for support from the U.S. Department of Health an exceptional job and almost got there.” Hupfer serves
and Human Services to expand the network of Certified as general counsel for the RNC. Earlier on Friday at the
Community Behavioral Health Clinics (CCBHC) in Indiana. Republican winter meetings in California, Ronna McDaniel
It is unusual for a sitting Indiana governor or lieutenant was easily reelected chairwoman. She received 111 votes,
governor to testify in front of a committee on behalf of while Harmeet Dhillon received 51 and pillow guy Mike
a specific piece of legislation. “As co-chair of the Indiana Lindell received four.
Roundtable on Mental Health, I could have justified speak-
ing on behalf of this bill. But for personal reasons, I was RNC resolution calls for abortion ‘offensive’
compelled to testify,” said Crouch. Score one for the anti-abortion advocates who
want the party to get more forceful, not moderate, on the
Crouch touts ‘next chapter’ in Terre Haute issue: A new RNC resolution calls for Republicans to “go
Lt. Gov. Crouch stopped in Terre Haute on on offense in the 2024 election cycle” (Politico Playbook).
Wednesday to tout past and future state projects, but she The document also urges federal and state legislators “to
also acknowledged that the state had many residents that pass the strongest pro-life legislation possible,” with lan-
still needed significant help to improve their lives (Terre guage indicating six-week abortion bans. It came before
Haute Tribune-Star). Hosted by the Terre Haute Chamber Axios reports that the Biden administration is considering
of Commerce at the at The Red Barn at Sycamore Farm, declaring a public health emergency that would free up
Crouch opened by saying that she saw “great things” hap- resources to help people access abortions.
pening in Vigo and Sullivan counties. “You’ve been ready
to explode,” she said. “You’re doing it now.” She said in the RNC report doubles down on election fraud
past 17 years, the state has turned itself around fiscally, A new internal report prepared by the Republi-
attributing some of its advances to the Indiana Office of can National Committee proposes creating a permanent
Community and Rural Affair’s efforts to expand broadband infrastructure in every state to ramp up “election integrity”
to Hoosier residents. She added that another $268 million activities in response to perceptions within GOP ranks
will connect an additional 75,000 Hoosiers and businesses of widespread fraud and abuse in the way the country
to the outlying world Crouch declared that the “next chap- selects its leaders (Washington Post). The report, pre-
ter in Indiana’s history will focus on quality of life,” adding pared by the RNC’s “National Election Integrity Team”
that is a way to attract talent to local communities. and obtained by The Washington Post, reveals the degree
to which Republicans continue to trade on former presi-
Page 9
dent Donald Trump’s false claims that Democrats and of Americans say they approve of how Biden is handling his
their allies rigged his defeat in 2020. The report suggests job as president, about the same as the 43% who said that
building a massive new party organization involving state- in December. In the new poll, 77% of Democrats approve
level “election integrity officers” and intensive new train- of how Biden is handling his job, while 91% of Republicans
ing models for poll workers and observers, all based on disapprove, both little changed since late last year.
unsubstantiated claims that Democrats have implemented
election procedures that allow for rigged votes. Home folks not sold on Mike Pence
On a drizzly day in December, Indianapolis talk
Presidential 2024 radio host Rob Kendall railed against Mike Pence on his
radio show, “Kendall & Casey.” “For 20 consecutive years,
Trump slips in Bulwark Poll, but has GOP grip Mike Pence has been in public office. What is the signature
“A large majority of GOP accomplishment of Mike Pence?
voters is ready to move on from Anyone? Anybody?” he asked
Donald Trump. But a devoted (Menge, Chicago Crusader).
minority might not let them.” Kendall didn’t hold back when
“This,” writes Sarah Longwell asked in January what he
in The Bulwark, “is the Always thought of Pence maybe run-
Trump faction of the Republican ning for president in 2024. “He
party. And they are why the accomplished next to nothing
GOP could be sleepwalking into while he was governor,” he said.
another Donald Trump catastro- Take the HPI readership survey: Hey, “He got saved by Trump. And,
phe.” Here’s the bottom line from there! We are doing some research on the Howey what else is he going to do?
a new poll by The Bulwark and
Politics Indiana Daily Wire and future features that What applicable skill set does
GOP pollster Whit Ayres of North he have and what has he done
Star Opinion Research: Donald we might be able to offer you, our valued subscrib- in the private sector his entire
Trump has slipped to his lowest ers. We are curious to hear your thoughts because life?” Of course, he could get
point since he emerged on the we value your opinion. Please take this super short some other kind of job. “Yeah,
political scene almost eight years survey (less than 2 minutes) to let us know how but Mike Pence doesn’t do a job
ago. He remains a formidable
The Daily Wire is working for you. We thank you in the sense where like he pro-
force, to be sure, with a lock duces things,” Kendall said. “If
on approximately 30% of likely in advance! you told Mike Pence he had to
Republican primary and caucus turn a profit on a Wendy’s near
voters nationally. But a majority of the GOP is ready to a crowded interstate for a week, I don’t think he could do
move on. The Bulwark/North Star Opinion Research poll is it.” Even Republican Party loyalists in Indiana seem to have
consistent with several other polls that have found Trump tired of Pence. “I’m much more DeSantis than I am Pence,”
fading with voters and losing to Florida Governor Ron says Chris Callaway, a former county GOP chairman in
DeSantis in head-to-head match-ups. In each of three Monroe County.
scenarios polled, Trump’s weakness is evident. But, as the
pollsters emphasize, he has a tight grip on between 28 Pence says ‘mistakes were made’ with docs
and 30% of the GOP primary voters. In a head-to-head Former Vice President Mike Pence said Friday that
match, DeSantis leads Trump 52% to 30%, with 15% he takes “full responsibility” after classified documents
undecided and 3% saying they would not vote if those were found at his Indiana home (AP). In his first public
were the only two options. With DeSantis, Trump, and comments since the discovery, Pence said, “Let me be
“another candidate,” DeSantis got 44%, Trump got 28%, clear: Those classified documents should not have been in
and the generic “another candidate” got 10%, with 17% my personal residence,” Pence said at Florida International
undecided. In a 10-candidate field, DeSantis got 39%, University. “Mistakes were made, and I take full responsi-
Trump 28%, Mike Pence 9%, Nikki Haley and Liz Cheney bility.”
4% each, and five other candidates registered at 1%. In
this scenario, 13% of the respondents were undecided. Haley to declare on Feb. 15
Cementing what has been in the works for months,
Biden approval at 41% in AP poll former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will formally an-
More U.S. adults disapprove than approve of the nounce she is running for president and will seek the
way President Joe Biden has handled the discovery of Republican nomination for her party’s 2024 ticket, The Post
classified documents at his home and former office, a new and Courier has learned. According to an invitation soon
poll shows, but that seems to have had little impact on his going out to her backers, Haley’s advertised “special an-
overall approval rating. The new poll from The Associated nouncement” will come Feb. 15 in Charleston.v
Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 41%
Page 10
Senate health panel
Indiana hospitals faced a host of other related challenges
in 2022 according to the report, including workforce short-
ages and increased labor costs.
passes health plan House passes teacher scholarship bill
Indiana lawmakers and education leaders are
Howey Politics Indiana
pushing for increased funding to help more professionals
INDIANAPOLIS – The Indiana governor’s proposal
and particularly people of color afford a teaching degree
for a broad expansion of county-level public health pro-
(Comber-Willen, Indiana Public Media). The legislation,
grams won its first endorsement from state legislators on
supported by members of both parties, comes as schools
Wednesday (Davies, AP). The state Senate’s health com-
across the state continue to struggle with a shortage of
mittee voted 12-0 in support of a
teachers and paraprofessionals. House Bill 1637 aims to
bill laying out the responsibilities
recruit and retain diversity among educators in Indiana
that local health departments
by providing increases in three scholarship funds, two
would have if county officials
of which are geared towards minority educators. This
accept a major increase in state
includes a boost from $7,500 to $10,000 for Next Genera-
funding being sought by Repub-
tion Hoosier Educators Scholarship recipients, an annual
lican Gov. Eric Holcomb. State
scholarship amount increase from $4,000 to $10,000 for
Health Commissioner Dr. Kristina
William A. Crawford Minority Teacher Scholarship recipients
Box, several medical organizations and business groups
and an annual scholarship amount increase from $4,000 to
urged lawmakers to support the plan, pointing to Indiana’s
$5,000 for Earline S. Rogers Student Teaching Scholarship
poor national rankings in areas such as smoking, obesity
for Minorities.
and life expectancy. The governor’s plan would direct $100
million in the next state budget year and $200 million in
the following year toward boosting Indiana’s county public Affordable housing bill passes W&M
health department funding from its 45th-place national Lawmakers opted not the include an explicit
ranking. The state now directs about $7 million a year to price tag for a program designed to incentivize affordable
county health departments, which are primarily funded by housing construction throughout the state before passing
local taxes. the bill through the House Ways and Means Committee
Wednesday (Downard, Capital Chronicle). House Bill 1005
now goes to the full House. Rep. Doug Miller, R-Elkhart,
Pandemic hammered Indiana hospitals
helmed a task force that approved 16 recommendations to
Indiana hospitals experienced their most difficult
address the state’s housing shortage, and presented the
financial year since the beginning of the pandemic last
bill before a committee last week. That panel approved the
year, according to a new analysis by Kaufman Hall. Record-
bill, recommitting the legislation to Ways and Means.
high hospital expenses coupled with losses in operating
income left Indiana hospitals with cumulative negative
margins in 2022. National Guard Court martial bill advances
According to the report, Indiana hospitals op- A bill to make court-martialing and punishing
erated on a -2.0% median operating margin last year, Indiana National Guard troops easier passed the Senate
declining 22% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Expenses with strong support. An identical version already passed
for labor, medical supplies, drugs, and other purchased the House too (Rayes, Indiana Public Media). One part of
services rose $3.2 billion during this time due to inflation the bills faced opposition at every step – but not enough
and other external factors, outpacing revenue. The median to change them. All 40 Republicans in the Senate voted
hospital operating margin for the state of Indiana was at to pass Senate Bill 279 while all nine present Democrats
or below the national median each year, the report found. (one was absent) voted against it. The vote did not fall so
Meanwhile, Indiana hospitals experienced nega- purely along party lines on the House version. A few Dem-
tive operating income for the first time since the beginning ocrats broke ranks and voted to pass House Bill 1076 and
of the pandemic in 2022, losing $72 million. In addition, two Republicans voted against passing it in that chamber.
total operating income for Indiana hospitals fell $1.2 billion Representatives for the Indiana National Guard told law-
below pre-pandemic levels. As a result, Indiana hospitals makers in committees that there have been several sexual
saw significant declines in days cash on hand — a key assault cases in recent years. They said the accused could
measure of cash reserves. In 2022 alone, Indiana hospitals only be separated from service because they were unable
experienced a nearly 20% median decline in their number to convene court-martials.
of days cash on hand compared to 2021. “These findings
underscore the existential financial and operational threats Sen. Sandlin revives partisan school board bill
Indiana hospitals continue to face,” said Erik Swanson, se- Indiana lawmakers are trying again to pass a Re-
nior vice president of data and analytics at Kaufman Hall. publican-backed proposal to make school board elections
partisan despite opposition from school board membersPage 11
and education advocates from across the state (Smith, meetings. He contended during a bill hearing at the Indi-
Indiana Public Media). Candidates running for school ana Statehouse on Monday that elected party officials have
boards would be required to identify as a Republican, a “higher degree of responsibility” to voters. Forcing school
Democrat or Independent, according to the legislation. board candidates to declare a party will provide greater
Currently, Indiana is among 41 states where local school transparency, he said. “I think that we need to reform our
board elections are held without any party identification system. I think (partisan elections) is a system that will
on the ballot for candidates. The bill’s author, Republican work.”v
Sen. Jack Sandlin of Indianapolis, said the impetus of the
bill stemmed from his conversations with Hoosiers who
feel their views have been “excluded” from school board
Hoosier farmland tax
rate calculation for 2023 tax bills dropped the lower 2015
corn and bean prices and added the higher 2021 prices.
For 2024, the lower 2016 prices are dropped in favor of the
misery has company higher 2022 prices. Including higher prices in the average
causes the base rate to increase.
This means that the base rate most likely will
By LARRY DEBOER
continue to increase for tax bills in 2025. All that’s required
WEST LAFAYETTE – Farmland assessments for
is that commodity prices in 2023 be greater than prices
property taxes are going up. So are home, rental housing
were in 2017. The corn price was under $4 in 2017 and the
and business assessments. Property tax misery has a lot
soybean price was in the mid-$9 range. Needless to say,
of company.
prices are higher now, so the base rate will rise for 2025. If
Farmland assessments start with a base rate per
prices don’t fall back to pre-pandemic levels, the base rate
acre. The base rate is a statewide number calculated each
will continue to rise through 2028.
year by the Indiana Department
Property tax bills will rise for most farmland
of Local Government Finance.
owners. But they may not rise as much as the increase
The base rate for taxes this year
in the base rate. That’s because other assessments are
is $1,500 per acre, up 16% from
increasing too. The average taxable assessed value of
$1,290 last year. The DLGF just
homesteads – owner-occupied primary residences – has
announced that the base rate for
increased by 21% for taxes in 2023. Rental housing has an
taxes next year will be $1,900, a
18% increase, and business land and buildings are rising
27% increase. The base rate is
10%. Only business equipment is rising slowly, at 2%.
adjusted for soil productivity and
Property tax rates are recalculated each year by
sometimes factors that reduce
dividing local government levies by the assessed value of
yields, to set the assessed value
taxable property within their boundaries. The levy is the
for each acre.
revenue that local governments intend to collect from the
The base rate calcula-
property tax, and most of it is limited by a state maximum.
tion is a capitalization formula. It
That limit increased by 5% this year. If taxable assessed
effectively puts a fixed 8% in the denominator. That’s the
value rises by more than that, tax rates will go down. As-
capitalization rate. The numerator averages two measures
sessed values are rising a lot more than 5% almost ev-
of income, cash rent adjusted for property tax payments,
erywhere. Tax rates won’t fall enough to erase the tax bill
and operating income, which is corn and soybean prices,
increase for most taxpayers. But tax bills won’t rise quite
times yields, minus costs. The base rate calculation aver-
as much as assessed values.
ages data from the most recent six years, with the high-
Think of it this way: Local governments set an
est value not counted. The base rate for this year’s tax bill
amount to collect from property taxes, then divvy it up
uses data from 2016 through 2021. Next year’s base rate
among local property owners, based on the value of their
uses data from 2017 to 2022.
property. Your share increases if the value of your property
The big variations in this formula come from
rises more than your neighbors’. If everyone’s property
corn and soybean prices. The price of corn used in the
values increase at the same rate, shares won’t change. Tax
calculation was under $4 per bushel from 2015 to 2020.
bills would increase no more than the increase in the levy.
Soybean prices were near $10 per bushel during those
Farmland tax bills will increase, but so will tax bills
years. The six years of data used to calculate the 2022
of homeowners and landlords. Farmland owners will have a
base rate of $1,290 used those prices.
lot of company to share the tax bill misery. v
Commodity prices jumped with the pandemic.
The corn price used by the DLGF topped $5 in 2021 and
Deboer is professor of agricultural economics at
rose above $6 in 2022. The soybean price increased
Purdue. University.
above $12 in 2021 and approached $14 in 2023. The basePage 12
Grave divisions face
of Abraham Lincoln, “And There Was Light,” Meacham de-
scribes angry divisiveness as Lincoln became president. He
expresses concern for democracy now and says lessons
American democracy can be learned from what happened back then.
He tells of the fear then that outgoing Vice
President John Breckinridge, sympathetic to the South-
By JACK COLWELL
ern cause, might not carry out his constitutional duty of
South Bend Tribune
accepting electoral votes from the states for the presiden-
SOUTH BEND – A national survey by Notre Dame’s
tial winner. But Breckinridge opened the certificates and
Rooney Center for the Study of American Democracy finds
declared the results showing Lincoln’s victory.
more than half of Republicans (52%) and more than a
There also were fears then that a mob might
third of Democrats (36%) believe we are on the brink of a
attack messengers carrying the electoral results for the
new civil war.
proceedings. A hundred plainclothes police were stationed
And the threat of violence
along the route of the messengers from the Senate to the
to democracy is cited in two
House.
recent books.
Mogelson, normally a war correspondent, cov-
One is by Jon Meacham,
ered the violence in America leading up to and during the
Pulitzer Prize-winning historian,
Jan. 6 insurrection. The writes about it in his book, “The
who likens conditions now to
Storm Is Here.”
divisions just before the civil war.
He developed contacts with leaders of the Capitol
The other is by Luke Mogelson, a
insurrection and went in with them as they stormed the
journalist who maintained close
building, recording the events of that day.
contact with Jan. 6 insurrection-
In interviews afterward, Mogelson followed up
ists and even went with them
with questions about future plans for other actions. To
into the Capitol.
a question of what happens if Trump runs for president
Professor Matthew Hall, Rooney Center director,
again in 2024 and loses again, an insurrection backer
warned of dangers to democracy when the Notre Dame
depicted a scene where “blood runs knee-high in the
survey results were released in November. “Is it really as
streets.”
bad as it seems? The answer is yes,” Hall
In wars he covered abroad,
said.
Mogelson found real, understandable
To be clear, Hall wasn’t predicting
reasons for conflict over atrocities and
a civil war. He was warning of the dan-
land conquest. Here, he fears it would
gers to democracy when so many Ameri-
be “a war fueled not by injury but by
cans now question democratic principles
delusion.”
and find differences so great that they
Hall, Notre Dame professor of po-
see civil war as a possibility.
litical science and law, isn’t predicting
Differences? Wow.
bloody civil war. But he warns of divi-
The survey found that 78% of
sions posing a grave threat to Ameri-
Democrats thought the Jan. 6 hearings
can democracy. Democracy is neither
proved that Donald Trump was responsi-
inevitable nor easy, he says. It’s like a
ble for the riot, while 62% of Republicans
snowball that has to be pushed up the
believed they did not.
hill. “It’s effortful, it’s tiring, it demands
While 45% of Republicans said
a vigilance. And you take a break or
Joe Biden stole the presidential election,
you assume you are already up the hill,
Democrats almost unanimously disagreed,
and it will roll down back on you.”
with 75% strongly disagreeing.
If there is no change in the hellish
There also were differences on
climate of myriad conspiracy theories
voting rights. While 89% of Democrats
and political hatreds, will democracy
said everyone should be allowed to vote,
stand a snowball’s chance? v
just 51% of Republicans agreed.
When asked about a statement
Colwell has covered Indiana
that the true American way of life is
politics over five decades for the
disappearing so fast that we may have to
South Bend Tribune.
use force to save it, 44% of Republicans,
22% of Democrats and 25% of Indepen- Notre Dame Prof. Matthew Hall is
dents agreed. Scary. director of the Rooney Center and
In his bestselling new biography warns of the dangers facing Ameri-
can democracy.Page 13
The 2023 forecast
spring or summer. This means the Federal Reserve can
slow their efforts to stop inflation, as they seem likely to
do in the coming months.
By MICHAEL J. HICKS The Fed always tries to achieve a soft landing, but
MUNCIE – In the past couple of weeks I’ve pre- labor market conditions today make it easier to do so for
sented my 2023 economic forecast to groups here in In- several reasons. First, the unemployment rate remains at
diana and Ohio. My short-term economic forecast through her historic lows. Second, the excess demand for labor, as
2023 and into 2024 is similar to that of the Federal Re- measured by job openings, is unusually large. It is larger
serve. I’m predicting the U.S. dodges a recession in 2023 than at any time for which we’ve had data, and probably
and faces instead what is often called a “soft landing.” larger than at any time in history. While this is uncomfort-
There are good reasons why this forecast will be able for businesses, it makes a soft landing more likely.
right and, of course, many reasons why it will be wrong. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate
My forecast uses a series of equa- hikes have stopped inflation, without thus far increasing
tions that attempt to capture unemployment. The hope is that the Fed can continue to
economic relationships over time. reduce the excess demand, but that reduction will be felt
For example, I have an equation in the help wanted advertisements, not in actual hiring.
that predicts new home construc- That is the “soft landing.”
tion given population growth and Even with a soft landing, there will be some
mortgage rates. Another predicts labor market effects. The past few months have seen sig-
sales of consumer durables given nificant wage growth for workers with the lowest income.
personal income growth and credit Much of this is fueled by workers changing jobs, not by
card rates. general wage increases. In many industries, the only way
These equations work well to experience wage growth is through ‘job hopping.’ That
when the underlying relationships opportunity may be coming to an end. Slack labor markets
don’t change very much. Unfortu- may slow the growth of remote work in some sectors, but
nately, that’s often not the case, especially in the wake of it may grow opportunities in others. And, the end of tight
the huge post-COVID economic swings. However, forecast- labor markets might slow the pace of automation in the
ing this way is helpful because it allows us to really focus service sector. We won’t know how these shake out for
on those areas that have the most uncertainty or change. many months.
The forecast of continued growth comes from My prediction of a soft landing is shared by the
these models, not a hunch or feeling. There are a few Federal Reserve forecasters, as well as many academic
good data points that help explain why these sorts of mod- and commercial forecasts. Still, there are model-based
els would suggest we’ll dodge a recession. To begin with, forecasts of a recession in the first half of 2023, and there
the economy is currently growing well. GDP growth in the are several reasons why a recession could still occur.
third quarter was at 3.2%, and the slowdown in the first The economy is always plagued by short-term
half of last year was largely due to inventory adjustments. measurement error. In fact, the initial hesitance to believe
There’s nothing happening right now that would suggest the growing risk of inflation was because of significant
an immediate slowdown. underestimates of labor market strength in 2021. Today,
Following some huge swings during COVID, infla- we could be underestimating inflation or overestimating
tion-adjusted personal income, measured on a per person the strength of labor markets. If so, both the predictions
basis, has been rising since June. The personal savings of a soft landing and an end of inflation could be mis-
rate has dipped, but much of that is probably due to con- taken. But, the risk of measurement error is symmetrical.
sumers paying off credit card debt as rates rise. Household Labor markets could be stronger, and underlying inflation
spending on goods and services remains relatively strong. could be less than we now observe in the preliminary data
All this is encouraging news that signals a downturn is not releases.
imminent. China has reversed course on COVID policies,
The reason for worry about a recession is the and reopened their economy. This will have uncertain ef-
Federal Reserve’s response to high inflation. The tighten- fects ranging from lower prices for many of their exports,
ing of the money supply, most obviously through higher to higher global mend for energy and raw materials. It
interest rates, is designed to slow demand for goods. This is best to view this volatility from China as an uncertain
would bring inflation back to the targeted level of between global shock to supply and demand. China’s economy is
2.0 and 2.5%. troubled, and their political regime bizarrely uncertain. It
The good news is that when measured from is most likely that the world is turning away from that un-
month to month, inflation has stopped. By some measure certainty, but the short-run effects of their reversal of their
it has even slipped into deflation. While the year-to-year COVID policy is very uncertain.
inflation is still high, the end of monthly inflation means The U.S. Congress seems poised for a showdown
that the rate should fall back to the targeted range by late on the debt ceiling. Typically, these are political theaterYou can also read
