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Taking the Long View in a Time of Great Uncertainty
The Alignment of Vectors: Creating the Perfect Storm
Jack Jekowski
Industry News Editor and INMM Historian
In previous columns I have written the organization toward a particular future stimulating their imaginative processes to
about the power of scenario planning as world. Those additional steps included: ensure that future worlds can be adapted
a tool to stretch the mindset of managers • Performing real time research of to or changed. One of the best “compli-
and policy makers to prepare for multiple indicators and identifying events ments” I received after implementing these
possible futures. By creating stories of
1
that were described in the sce- tools was in the form of a sincere complaint
future worlds, driven by uncertain forces narios and using tools such as an from a senior manager in the Enterprise: “I
and events, leaders can rehearse their “indicator wheel;” and from that used to be able to enjoy a morning coffee
decision making in a less stressful envi- information developing a set of while reading the newspaper; now, I find I
ronment than might otherwise cause their vector diagrams to stimulate strate- am analyzing everything that is going on
judgement to be clouded by emotion and gic discussions. Those discussion in the world with respect to the scenar-
adrenaline. then provided the basis for senior ios we developed and wondering what
As a novice scenario planner in the management to “connect the dots” we should be doing in response to them.
1990’s, under the tutelage of the “master” to speculate on where the world Jack, you have ruined my morning relax-
scenario planner, Peter Schwartz,2 I noted is headed. Through this process, ing time.” That was an eye-opener for
that once the scenarios were created, they strategies previously developed me that said the process was working.
too often “sat on the shelf,” along with other could be activated to adapt to or Subsequently, as I have implemented the
strategic plans and guidance documents, modify the path to the future. Scenario process in various organiza-
as the organization moved on to the more • Revisit the scenarios when the anal- tions, the most successful and long-lasting
mundane and urgent tasks of the day-to- ysis performed demonstrates that implementations have involved the identi-
day business operations. While working movement has occurred far enough fication of staff who continuously perform
an early set of scenarios with clients within into a future world that the construct research on current events applicable to
the DOE/NNSA I realized that additional itself needs to be reimagined. the organization’s scenarios, apply the
important steps needed to be added to vector analysis tool, and keep the scenario
the traditional eight steps3 taught by Peter Scenario Research and Vector discussions alive with senior management.
to not only keep the scenarios “alive” Analysis In performing scenario research, a simple
but also to utilize the work that had been By performing these two additional table construct is used to document perti-
invested in them to understand in real time steps, the scenarios are “kept alive” for man- nent issues and events (shown here with
the direction current events were taking agement and policy makers, continuously one pertinent example for INMM):
Scenario Topical Area Events/Indicator Strategic Implications
Iran’s nuclear activities and the New U.S. Administration and opening of negotiations for the Technical assistance may be needed by the IAEA to
JCPOA status possible return of the U.S. to the JCPOA. implement verification activities under the JCPOA.
Actions taken by Iran in breach of its JCPOA commitments, Challenges presented by hostile actions in the
including exceeding the 3.67% limit for enriching uranium. Middle East, which may increase if the U.S. return to
the JCPOA does not occur.
Sabotage attacks at Natanz facility to disrupt enriched
uranium production and advanced centrifuge deployment.
152 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2021 Volume XLIX No. 1
Taking the Long View in a Time of Great Uncertainty
It is not uncommon for this table to be This tool helps participants to visual- • Climate change and the increasing
several pages long over a review period ize the broader topical areas they should militarization of the Arctic.4
(typically 3 or 4 months) and, depending be monitoring and can be placed in the • Socio-economic turmoil driven by
on the talents of the researcher(s) devel- workplace to help inform the organiza- technology.
oping the materials, may still be incom- tion of the issues that are impacting their • Continuing global outbreaks of
plete when presented to management, future. The inner circle represents indica- COVID-19 and the aftermath global
who often have additional insights based tors very close to the organization which it impacts including the recent
upon their position in the organization may have the most impact upon, the next development of virtual technology
and sphere of knowledge outside the level are those more global indicators that platforms and travel restrictions.
organization. influence the organization, and the outer • Aftermath of the COVID-19
As time goes on, managers (or policy circle represents international indicators pandemic on the INMM Annual
makers) will often start to add their own that affect the future direction of the world. Meeting and Workshop format and
information and knowledge to the Events Current indicators that could be moni- attendance.
or Indicators to enrich the discussion and tored for their impact on the INMM include: • Success of student and diversity
further enhance the development of the • Iran’s nuclear activities and the initiatives, membership educational
strategic implications. The events identi- renegotiation of the Joint Compre- opportunities and other factors to
fied link back to the scenarios that were hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). promote the growth and prosperity
developed, where the organization specu- • North Korea Nuclear program of the Institute.
lated on what events might take the world – and the potential restart of Some of these Indicators have been
into a possible future. The Indicators also diplomatic discussions. significantly influenced by the change
are established in the scenario process for • Russian nuclear weapons mod- in U.S. Administration under President
the organization and represent the top- ernization program, deployment of Biden, as well as the on-going COVID-19
level “watch areas” that a particular focus new technologies, and threats to pandemic.
should be placed on for the research that Ukraine. In a previous column5 I had identified
is performed. An example of a “Scenario • China nuclear weapons modern- two orthogonal axes (Figure 2) that might
Indicator Wheel” (Figure 1) developed ization, aggression in the East and serve as the basis for an organizational
more than two decades ago for a client South China Seas, and threats to scenario construct for the INMM:
in the U.S. DOE is shown in the adjacent Taiwan. • The Advancement and Control of
figure. • Programmatic decisions for the U.S. Nuclear Technology
nuclear weapons modernization • Global Nuclear Security Threats
program, and updates to the U.S. Developed in 2016, these two axes are
Nuclear Posture Review. still applicable today as potential orthogo-
• Middle East tensions. nal topics, with some new elements added
• Increased use of cyber-attacks and with respect to the development of hyper-
disinformation. sonic delivery vehicles, nuclear powered
• Developments associated with the cruise missiles and underwater ordinance,
implementation of BREXIT. offensive cybersecurity actions, as well as
• Deployment of new Nuclear Power the development of Artificial Intelligence
Plant (NPP) technologies, including with respect to nuclear launch-decisions.
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Figure 1. Scenario Indicator Wheel
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2021 Volume XLIX No. 1 153Figure 2. Vector Diagram of Two Orthogonal Axes Representing the Basis for an Organizational Scenario Construct for the INMM
A typical vector analysis resulting from better fit the mindset of management as multiple nation-states to test the mettle of
research conducted against the indicators well as the reality of the current world they the new U.S. Administration in the current
shown earlier and events is shown notion- are in, all the while bringing further insight delicate balance that exists worldwide,
ally in the adjacent figure to demonstrate into the global events that are influencing pushing the world into an unfavorable
the visual impact that can result using this the future of the world. quadrant of our scenario construct that
tool. The strength and direction of the shows increasing Global Nuclear Security
vectors is shown qualitatively based on the
The Alignment of Vectors in Threats and the Advancement of Nuclear
importance of the strategic implications of
Our Current World: Creating Technology. These include:
each research area. It is not uncommon
the Perfect Storm • Increasingly aggressive behavior
In our current world there has been
when a scenario researcher presents this by China with respect to the East
a disturbing alignment of indicators and
information to the organization leaders and South China seas as well as
events, leading to strategic implications
they will immediately jump in and offer Taiwan.7
that have been noted by some analysts.6
their opinions and perspectives. This typ- • The growth and modernization of
These implications lead to speculation on
ically will lead to very rich strategic discus- China’s nuclear stockpile.8
the simultaneous confluence of threats by
sions that can help shape the analysis to • Continued Russian nationalistic
154 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2021 Volume XLIX No. 1posturing in the Middle East, and about how the Institute and its mem- the Long View,” can still be obtained
the Ukraine. 9
bership might be able to adapt to, and online (https://www.amazon.com/
• Development of nuclear technolo- perhaps, influence the future. Art-Long-View-Planning-Uncertain/
gies, including hypersonic delivery This column is intended to serve as dp/0385267320).
vehicles.10 a forum to present and discuss current 3. Those steps included: 1) Identifying
• Unrest in the Middle East.11 strategic issues impacting the Institute a Focal Issue or Question (what the
• Cyber-attacks and disinformation of Nuclear Materials Management in most important long-term influence
campaigns.12 the furtherance of its mission. The views would be on the organization); 2)
• Iran’s nuclear activities and the expressed by the author are not neces- identifying key external drivers and
JCPOA.13 sarily endorsed by the Institute but are environmental forces; 3) identifying
• North Korea missile and nuclear intended to stimulate and encourage what the most critical and most
weapons activities.14 JNMM readers to actively participate in uncertain drivers of the future will be
• Changes to U.K. nuclear policy to strategic discussions. Please provide (critical uncertainties); 4) developing
address emerging technologies.15 your thoughts and ideas to the Institute’s the scenario logic diagram—four
• Continuing domestic strife in the leadership on these and other issues of worlds that will challenge the mindset
United States, immigrations issues, importance. With your feedback we hope of management, through the identifi-
deficit spending, and recovery to create an environment of open dia- cation of orthogonal axes; 5) identi-
initiatives as the nation emerges logue, addressing the critical uncertainties fying indicators and potential events
from the COVID-19 pandemic. that lie ahead for the world, and identify in each future world that would drive
A preliminary vector analysis of these the possible paths to the future based on it in that direction; 6) developing
and other indicators point to an emerging those uncertainties that can be influenced stories of each future that will capture
threat to global stability that could have a by the Institute. Jack Jekowski can be the imagination of management and
dramatic impact on the technical and sci- contacted at jpjekowski@aol.com. others; 7) developing strategies to
entific work performed by Institute mem- survive or prosper in each world, or
bership. In this future world, adversary Endnotes alternatively, allow the organization
nation-states, leveraging the domestic 1. For a discussion of past Scenario-re-
to change the actual direction of the
and economic turmoil in the United States, lated columns, see: Jekowski J. 2020.
future world, including the identifica-
will push forward their agendas, perhaps Taking the Long View in a Time of
tion of “robust strategies” that might
waiting for the first “domino” to fall, result- Great Uncertainty – Scenario Plan-
be common to all future worlds; and
ing in a global disruption that could result ning in the Age of COVID-19. JNMM,
8) publicizing the stories to garner
in the United States having to make unde- Vol. 48, No.1, pp. 32-36.
support.
sirable foreign policy trade-offs. 2. Peter Schwartz was a scenario
4. See “It Would be a Mistake to Under-
planner for Royal Dutch Shell during
estimate Russia: The New Cold War
Where Do We Go from Here? the energy crisis of the 1970’s and
That is Emerging in the Arctic,” https://
In future columns I plan to present formed his own company, Global
thewarhorse.org/it-would-be-a-mis-
additional research and analysis on this Business Network (GBN), to offer the
take-to-understimate-russia-the-new-
topic including the further development of powerful scenario planning tool to
cold-war-thats-emerging-in-the-arctic/
the INMM scenario construct, to continue industry and government. His efforts
(5/5/21).
to research topics against indicators and in leading the major scenario plan-
5. See: Jekowski J. 2016. Taking the
current events, and apply the vector anal- ning effort in South Africa called the
Long View in a Time of Great Uncer-
ysis process to demonstrate the power of Mount Fleur Scenarios contributed
tainty – Rehearsing Possible Futures.
the scenario planning tool. Such a devel- to the elimination of Apartheid in that
JNMM, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp.58-61.
opment can lead to strategic discussions country. His seminal work, “The Art of
6. The U.S. National Intelligence Council
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2021 Volume XLIX No. 1 155recently published “Global Trends can-the-united-states-prevent-a- 12. See “US Intelligence Report Warn
2040,” https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ war-over-taiwan/?utm_source=- of Increased Cyber Offensive,
global-trends-home, which describes Sailthru&utm_medium=e- Disinformation Around the World,”
a more chaotic and divided world mail&utm_campaign=EBB%20 https://www.cyberscoop.com/
influenced greatly by climate change, 03.02.21&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20 us-intelligence-report-warns-of-in-
technology, social and economic Early%20Bird%20Brief (3/1/21). creased-offensive-cyber-disinforma-
upheavals, and the COVID-19 8. See “The Number of Chinese tion-around-the-world/ (4/8/21).
pandemic. In the report, four tense Nuclear Warheads,” https:// 13. See “Natanz Attack Hit 50 Meters
and dark future scenario worlds are www.realcleardefense.com/arti- Underground, Destroyed Most of the
discussed: “A World Adrift,” “Compet- cles/2021/04/27/the_number_of_ Facility,” https://www.jpost.com/mid-
itive Coexistence,” “Separate Silos,” chinese_nuclear_warheads_774594. dle-east/natanz-attack-destroyed-fa-
and “Tragedy and Mobilization.” The html?mc_cid=6fd87bd53b&mc_ cility-50-meters-underground-664979
report also provides a fifth scenario eid=629ee69f92 (4/27/21). (4/13/21).
that is more promising: “Renaissance 9. See “What Will Russia Do With Forces 14. See “Kim Jong Un’s Record of April
of Democracies” (in scenario par- Massed on Ukraine’s Borders,” https:// Missile Tests Raises Prospects of
lance, this would be called a “desir- www.aspistrategist.org.au/what-will- Launches,” https://www.nknews.
able future” and is often included to russia-do-with-forces-massed-on- org/2021/04/kim-jong-uns-record-of-
avoid turning participants away from ukraines-borders/?mc_cid=2e907e- april-missile-tests-raises-prospect-
the overall scenario effort). For sum- 801b&mc_eid=629ee69f92 of-launches-reveals/?mkt_tok=MD-
maries of the report, see “The U.S. (4/20/21) and “Ukraine Mulls Nuclear k1LVBQVi04MTMAAAF8a-cn45ow-
Intelligence Community’s Harrowing Arms to “Guarantee” its Defense,” fkAYs_ZPVqiSQONRSL-1zpfAFhw4P_
Take on Our Possible Futures,” https://en.haberler.com/ukraine- UXRKsnym_pr9F_cviOnGsJ-JGzE-
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ mulls-nuclear-arms-to-guarantee- FGUX6ywtuT6V1cfGyYuByfkPEStL-
articles/29583/for-u-s-intelligence- its-1588352/ (4/15/21). WOC88Z9YaQWsybedg (4/13/21).
threats-cloud-the-horizon-in-global- 10. See “Russia’s ‘Doomsday Drone’ 15. See “Britain Changes Policy So It Can
trends-2040 (5/4/21), and “Why Spy Prepares for Testing,” https://www. Use Nuclear Weapons in Response to
Agencies Say the Future is Bleak,” themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/26/ Emerging Technologies,” https://www.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/ russias-doomsday-drone-prepares-for- cnbc.com/2021/03/17/uk-changes-poli-
opinion/global-trends-intelligence-re- testing-a70386 cy-so-it-can-use-nukes-in-response-to-
port.html (5/4/21). (5/4/21); “Russia’s Skyfall Missile,” emerging-tech.html (3/17/21).
7. See “Washington is Avoiding the https://www.thesun.co.uk/
Tough Questions on China and news/12657452/russia-skyfall-nucle-
Taiwan,” https://www.foreignaffairs. ar-missile-five-eyes-briefing/ (5/3/21);
com/articles/asia/2021-04-28/ and “Russia Plans New Hypersonic
washington-avoiding-tough-ques- Missile Test Amid Arms Race with U.S.
tions-taiwan-and-china?utm_ and China,” https://www.newsweek.
source=Sailthru&utm_medium=e- com/russia-plans-new-hyperson-
mail&utm_campaign=EBB%20 ic-missile-test-amid-arms-race-us-
04.29.21&utm_term=Editorial%20 china-1578678 (5/6/2021).
-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief 11. See “The Taliban Are Ready to Exploit
(4/28/21), and “Can the United America’s Exit,” https://en.haberler.
States Prevent a War Over Taiwan,” com/ukraine-mulls-nuclear-arms-to-
https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/ guarantee-its-1588352/ (4/14/21).
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