The 2019 Kinder Houston Area Survey - Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 38 Years of Houston Surveys
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Building Better Cities
Building Better Lives
The 2019 Kinder
Houston Area Survey
Tracking Responses to the Economic and
Demographic Transformations through
38 Years of Houston Surveys
STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG, FOUNDING DIRECTOR, KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH MAY 2019
We define our success through yours We can only be successful if our employees, customers and the communities we serve have the opportunity to achieve their own vision of success. Bank of America is helping to build a better tomorrow by using our capital, expertise and innovation to foster a diverse workforce to address societal issues like climate change, gender equality and economic mobility. Shared success means creating responsible, sustainable growth for our company and our world. Learn more at bankofamerica.com/about. Connect with us: @BofA_News ©2019 Bank of America Corporation | AR64WX5V | ESG-236-AD
CONTENTS 1
Contents
2 Introduction; Survey Methodology
4 Highlights from the Thirty-Eighth Year
7 The Houston Economy across the 38 Years
11 The Education Crisis and the Growing Inequalities
15 Feeling More at Home with Houston’s Burgeoning Diversity
20 After Harvey
23 Continuity and Change in Political Orientations
27 Concluding Note
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys
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Introduction
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or 38 years, Rice University’s Kinder Houston Area Survey has been tracking systematically
the continuities and changes in the perceptions and experiences of successive representative
samples of Harris County adults. Through intensive interviews with a total of more than 46,000
Houston area residents, the surveys have been measuring the trends among Harris County residents
in their life experiences, attitudes, and beliefs during almost four decades of remarkable economic,
demographic, and technological change.
Under contract with Simon & Schuster, a new book exploring the national implications of this
research, entitled Prophetic City: Houston on the Cusp of a Changing America, is scheduled for
publication early in 2020. In this report, we assess the findings from the 2019 survey and look back
on 38 years of systematic assessments of attitudes and beliefs to ask about the way the views of
area residents have changed in response to new challenges.
Few cities exemplify more clearly than Houston the trends that are refashioning the social and
political landscape across all of America. The high-tech, knowledge-based, global economy
is generating mounting inequalities based primarily on access to quality education. As urban
centers compete for the most talented individuals and the most innovative companies, quality-
of-place attributes will increasingly determine the fates of cities. Meanwhile, an epic demographic
transformation is underway, as this city and country, once predominantly composed of European
nationalities, is rapidly becoming a microcosm of all the world’s ethnicities and religions. Nowhere are
these new realities more sharply articulated than here in the Houston region.
In this report, we show that area residents are growing more concerned about the pervasive
inequalities in economic opportunities and they are more insistent than in earlier years on the need
for policies to reduce the income disparities and improve the public schools. Here, at the forefront
of the nation’s demographic transformations, all of Houston’s major ethnic communities have
been expressing more favorable attitudes toward immigration, and they are more likely over the
years to report that they have close personal friends from all the different ethnicities. We note the
importance for Anglos and blacks of age or date of birth, and for Hispanics and Asians, of whether
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area Survey
INTRODUCTION 3
they are U.S. natives or foreign-born, in accounting for
differences among the respondents in their embrace of Survey Methodology
the new diversity.
The 38th annual Kinder Houston Area Survey was
We also measure the degree to which the participants conducted between February 4 and March 14, 2019
in the 2019 survey, more than a year and a half after by SSRS in Media PA. The intensive 30-minute
Hurricane Harvey, have grown less concerned than they interviews reached (50 percent by landline, 50
were in 2018 about the region’s vulnerability to flooding percent by cell phone) a scientifically-selected,
and are less inclined to support specific government randomly-generated, representative sample of 1,000
interventions intended to mitigate future flooding. And we adults living in Harris County.
ask if that lessening of support for specific policies has also
The responses from all 38 years of surveys are
softened concerns about climate change and reduced the
“weighted” to correct for variations in the likelihood
perceived need for better land-use planning. Finally, we
of selection and to align the samples more closely
take stock of the ongoing changes in political orientations:
with known population parameters. This helps to
Harris County, which has long been evenly split between
ensure that the data we report will accurately reflect
Republicans and Democrats, is now increasingly aligned
the characteristics of the county’s overall population
with the Democratic Party, and we explore area residents’
along such dimensions as race or ethnicity, age,
changing views over the years on the direction in which the
gender, educational attainment, and homeownership.
country is moving, on the need for criminal justice reform,
When asking about changes over time, we assess
and on attitudes toward abortion and homosexuality.
the similarities and differences in the weighted
This 38-year research program would not have been responses given by successive representative
possible without the continued generous support and samples of Harris County residents when responding
steadfast encouragement of the Kinder Foundation and to identically-worded questions that have been
Houston Endowment Inc., along with so many other positioned similarly in the survey instrument.
corporations, organizations, friends, colleagues, and
No other city in America has been tracked in this
students who have repeatedly affirmed the value of this
way over so many years. Few more clearly exemplify
continuing effort to measure systematically the changing
the remarkable changes that are underway across
views of Houston area residents as they respond to the
the country.
new realities. Our heartfelt thanks to all!
Joe Wolf/flickr
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys
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Highlights from
the Thirty-Eighth Year
The Houston economy since 1982
!! For almost four decades, the surveys have measured area residents’ subjective assessments of
local job opportunities, as the oil boom collapsed and then recovered into the ups and downs of
a more problematic economy. In recent years, after oil prices fell from dizzying heights in 2014
to lows in 2015, positive evaluations of the local economy rebounded once again, to reach what
now looks like a new, more stable plateau of modest long-term growth.
!! Ratings of local job opportunities as excellent or good were expressed by 67 percent of this year’s
survey participants; the figures were 69, 62, 63, and 67 in the past five years. This may be a good
time for Houston to plan seriously for the new investments that will be needed in order to improve
the region’s prospects for sustained prosperity in today’s economy.
!! When asked in 2019 to name the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today, traffic
was the predominating concern, just as it has been in the past five years; but this time it was cited
by 36 percent of all the respondents, up significantly from 25 percent in the 2018 survey, when 15
percent spontaneously named floods and storms as their dominant concerns.
The education crisis and the growing inequalities
!! The low-skilled, well-paid blue-collar jobs are disappearing in the wake of globalization and
automation. Some form of post-secondary education is now required for almost all well-paying
jobs, yet only 22 percent of the students who began the eighth grade in Houston-area schools in
2006 had completed any college-level program by 2017, twelve years later.
!! The survey respondents in 2019 decisively affirmed, by 67 to 33 percent, the necessity for
education beyond high school in order to qualify for a well-paid job. Blacks and Hispanics appear
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area Survey
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE THIRTY-EIGHTH YEAR 5
to be far more aware than Anglos of the new realities Feeling more at home with Houston’s
and are even more certain about the importance of burgeoning diversity
obtaining such post-secondary credentials.
!! In the census of 1960, fully 74 percent of the Harris
!! We have asked the survey participants over the years County population was composed of non-Hispanic
if they thought the public schools had enough money, whites, 20 percent were African Americans, and 6
if it were used wisely, to provide a quality education, or percent were Hispanics. During the past 30 years,
whether the schools will need significantly more money. In this historically black/white southern city has been
1995 and 1997, clear majorities believed that the schools transformed into one of the most ethnically diverse
had all the money required. In subsequent years through metropolitan regions in the entire country.
2009, the respondents were evenly divided on this issue.
!! Previous reports on this research have documented
When we asked the same question again in 2018, area
the continually increasing numbers of U.S.-born Anglos
residents had changed their minds: By 56 to 42 percent,
who express support for the new immigration. Here
they were now clear in asserting that the schools will need
we present the responses of blacks and Hispanics
more money if they expect to provide a quality education.
as well, and we find that the positive attitudes toward
!! The survey questions measuring economic well-being immigration in general have been increasing steadily in
remind us of the financial insecurity that is so pervasive all ethnic communities.
in the Houston area. Almost four out of ten of the
!! In alternating years since 2002, we have asked the
survey participants in 2019 said they did not have $400
respondents about close personal friendships or
in savings to draw on in case of an emergency. One-
romantic relationships with people from other ethnicities.
fourth of all area residents do not have health insurance
In all four communities and with regard to all of the
and one-third said they had difficulty during the past
other major ethnic groups, the numbers who say they
year paying for the groceries to feed their families or
have close interethnic friendships have been growing
covering the costs of housing. Partly in response to
significantly across the board.
these persistent inequalities, the respondents in growing
numbers are now calling for public policies to reduce !! Among Anglos and African Americans, a key
the financial inequities and strengthen the safety net. determinant of both cross-ethnic friendships and of
whittlz/flickr
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys
6 HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE THIRTY-EIGHTH YEAR
Osbornb/flickr
romantic relations is the respondents’ age or year of survey participants in 2019 were every bit as concerned
birth: Younger respondents have been growing up in as they were in 2018 about the impact of climate
a world of thriving interethnic friendships; they take for change, and they were even more insistent on the need
granted what most older Houstonians are less ready to for better land-use planning to guide development in the
accept. For Hispanics and Asians, the most powerful Houston area.
determinant of interethnic friendships is whether they
are first-generation immigrants or the U.S.-born children Continuity and change in political orientations
of earlier waves of immigrants.
!! The residents of Harris County, long evenly split
between Republicans and Democrats, have become
After Harvey
increasingly affiliated with the Democratic Party in
!! Hurricane Harvey was the worst rainfall event ever to recent times. The partisan differences in beliefs about
hit the continental United States, but more than a year the direction of the country have moderated, with
and a half has passed since the storm made landfall Republicans becoming somewhat less optimistic and
in August 2017. The survey respondents are less likely Democrats less pessimistic, over the past year.
today than in 2018 to mention concerns about flooding
!! Support for alternatives to mandatory prison sentences
when asked to name the biggest problem facing people
for nonviolent drug offenders has increased in the
in the Houston area.
years since 2011, but the partisan divisions have also
!! Even though more than three-fourths of the respondents grown. After a seeming convergence in the 2016 survey,
in 2019, the same proportion as in 2018, said it was Democrats are now much more likely than Republicans
virtually certain that Houston will experience more to call for criminal justice reform and for ending the
severe storms in the next ten years, they were less practice of mass incarceration.
inclined today than in 2018 to call for prohibiting
!! The new Democratic (and more secular) direction can
construction in flood-prone areas or for raising taxes to
also be seen in the sea-change that has taken place
buy out homes that have repeatedly flooded.
among the survey participants in their support for
!! At the same time, little change has occurred in area gay rights and, to a lesser extent, in their support for
residents’ broader perspectives on flooding issues. The abortion rights as well.
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area Survey
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The Houston Economy
across the 38 Years
W
hen we conducted the first survey in this series as a class project at Rice University
in March of 1982, it turned out to be at the height of Houston’s economic boom.
Corporations such as Hughes Tool Company, Cameron Iron Works, Compaq Computer,
Conoco, Exxon, Silver Eagle Distributors, Continental Airlines, Pennzoil, and Texaco were providing
steady incomes and pensions to a broad spectrum of Houston residents. Almost 50 percent of
all U.S. oil refining was taking place in the petrochemical plants along the Ship Channel, including
the plastic products, technical equipment, and industrial chemicals at the heart of the industry.
Meanwhile, the Texas Medical Center and the Houston Port were in the midst of their own
spectacular growth.
Figure 1 gives the official unemployment rates in Harris County during February in each of the
38 years, along with the survey participants’ negative ratings (fair or poor) of local job opportunities.
The data provide a vivid reminder of the economic upheavals the Houston area has undergone, while
also documenting the remarkable convergence between the objective data as recorded each year by
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the subjective impressions of the local economy as given by
successive representative samples of Harris County residents.
The 1982 survey reflected the booming economy. In March of that year, more than three-fourths
of the respondents (76 percent) rated job opportunities in the Houston area as excellent or good;
47 percent said their personal financial situations were getting better and 63 percent thought
they would be even better off three or four years down the road. Two months later, the oil boom
collapsed. The price of a barrel of Texas crude dropped from about $32 in early 1982 to less than
$28 by the end of 1983, but Houston had been building and borrowing in the expectation of $50
oil. Within 18 months, a region that had known only growing prosperity recorded a net loss of nearly
100,000 jobs.
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 38 Years of Houston Surveys
8 THE HOUSTON ECONOMY ACROSS THE 38 YEARS
Figure 1 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982–2019).
The official unemployment rates and negative ratings of job opportunities (1982–2019)
10.5 10.1 100%
9.8 Official unemployment rates in Harris County
Negative ratings of job opportunities 90%
9.5 86%
PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS
8.6 80%
72%
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
8.5 8.4 70%
61%
7.8 57% 60%
7.5 53% 7.3
55% 6.8 6.8 50%
6.5 41% 6.6
6.7 36% 40%
32%34% 30%
5.7 5.6 30%
5.5 28%
5.1 4.8 20%
4.5 4.7
4.3 10%
4.3 4.2
4.0
3.5 0%
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
YEAR OF SURVEY
Figure 2 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982–2019).
Positive ratings of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982–2019)
100
90
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good.”
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
80
71
68 69 67 67
70 63
58 58 60
60
62
48
50 43 42 41
40
30 36 35
20 25
10
11
0
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
YEAR OF SURVEY
There was a slight improvement in 1984; then came As the economy diversified and overbuilding made
the second major blow when the falling price of oil hit Houston’s cost of living cheaper than almost anywhere
bottom in late 1986 at less than $10 a barrel. By the else in the country, rapid population growth resumed
time of the 1987 survey, one out of every seven jobs in the 1990s, but now it was primarily due to the influx
that had been in Houston in 1982 had disappeared; 86 of immigrants from Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the
percent of the survey participants gave negative ratings Caribbean. The regional economy would experience
to job opportunities, and 72 percent spontaneously cited several more wild swings over the next decades, pretty
poverty, unemployment, and homelessness as the biggest much tracking with the rest of America. As indicated in
problems facing people in the region. Figure 1, the local unemployment rates hit successive
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyTHE HOUSTON ECONOMY ACROSS THE 38 YEARS 9
Figure 3 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982–2019)
What is “the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today?” (1982–2019)
80 Traffic
71 70 Economy
70
Crime
60
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
51
50 47
44
39
40 35 36
30 29
30 26 25 24
27
21
20 16 25
14 15
21
10 14 15
10 10 11
0
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
YEAR OF SURVEY
peaks in 1993, 2003, and during the Great Recession of Houston’s business leaders have identified the kinds
2008–2010. of investments that these times require. Oil and gas
companies will need to evolve toward the incorporation
In the years after that, the local economy continued to
of new energy systems, exploiting the state’s abundance
improve steadily, until the price of Texas crude soared
of wind and solar, and they will need to develop effective
to the giddy heights of $100 a barrel by 2014, before
ways to capture the CO2 emissions that are generated
declining sharply, falling to below $30 by the end of 2015,
by the burning of fossil fuels. The Texas Medical Center
when once again, office space in brand-new commercial
will need to grow into a significant biotechnology cluster,
buildings and large, stately homes were available for rent
moving beyond health care to become the third coast for
at bargain prices. The region’s unemployment rate was 4.3
the life sciences, along with San Francisco and Boston.
percent in February 2015; it rose to 4.7 percent in 2016
The four-mile-long innovation corridor being developed in
and to 5.6 percent in 2017, before falling once again to
Midtown will need to build more high-tech incubators and
4.8 in 2018 and to 4.2 in February 2019. As indicated in
attract new venture-capital investments.
Figure 2, the percentages of Harris County residents giving
positive ratings to local job opportunities have held steady Houston’s remarkable ethnic diversity will continue to
in the low to mid 60s from 2015 through 2019. be a major asset in drawing immigrants from all over
the world and in consolidating the city’s position in the
Oil prices have stabilized at around $60 per barrel, and
global economy, with the Houston Port serving as a major
the economy is growing once again, but at a much slower
gateway into the worldwide marketplace. Undergirding
pace than earlier in the decade, and more slowly than in
all of these initiatives is the need to nurture a much more
other Texas cities or in the nation as a whole. The data give
highly educated workforce ready to do the jobs of the
the distinct impression that the local economy has arrived
knowledge economy. And in order to convince more of the
at a steady state: In the past five years, there has been no
best trained minds to choose Houston as the place to live
consistent change in assessments of job opportunities.
and work, continuing improvements will be needed in the
It seems clear that Houston’s economic success in the
region’s overall quality of place—its resiliency in the face of
years ahead will depend to a large degree on a willingness
severe storms, its air and water quality, its parks, bayous
to make significant investments in the industries and the
and recreation areas, its venues for sports, arts, and
quality-of-life attributes that will build prosperity in the
culture, its centers of walkable urbanism; its mobility and
twenty-first century economy.
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys10 THE HOUSTON ECONOMY ACROSS THE 38 YEARS
then, the numbers citing crime as
the biggest problem in Houston
decreased steadily, to 16 percent in
2014 and then up slightly in the next
two years before declining to just 14
percent in 2018 and 15 percent in
2019. When asked specifically, later
in the interviews, if they were worried
that they or a member of their family
will become the victim of a crime, the
proportion of survey participants who
said they were very worried dropped
from 43 percent in 1995 to 33 percent
in 2008, 30 percent in 2015, and 25
percent in the 2019 survey.
Donald Rogers/flickr
Meanwhile, as economic concerns
have lessened and population
growth continues apace, traffic
congestion has once again become
transit. Much has been accomplished along these lines, the dominating preoccupation. The percentage of area
but much more will be needed in the years ahead. residents who spontaneously named traffic as Houston’s
biggest problem grew from single digits in the early 1990s
Houston’s changing fortunes are also reflected in the
to 47 percent in 2004; concerns about traffic faded during
open-ended question that begins each survey interview,
the recession years between 2009 and 2012, when
asking the respondents: “What would you say is the
economic anxieties once again predominated. Starting in
biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today?”
2015, however, traffic congestion was once again cited
Figure 3 depicts the proportions who spontaneously
as the biggest problem by pluralities of 28, 29, 24, and 25
named traffic, the economy, or crime as Houston’s biggest
percent in each of the ensuing years. In the 2019 survey,
problem. The data provide another graphic reminder of the
the proportion naming traffic as the most serious problem
upheavals that have marked this region’s history during the
jumped to 36 percent. There were no meaningful changes
38 years of surveys.
in the proportions mentioning crime, at 15 percent this
In the booming years of the 1970s and early 1980s, when year, or the economy, down slightly to 11 percent in 2019,
an average of 260 vehicles were being added every day from 14 and 16 percent in the previous two years.
to Houston’s streets and freeways, traffic congestion was
The 11-point jump this year in spontaneous mentions
the dominating concern, continuing well into the recession
of traffic as the biggest problem facing people in the
years. Not until the full force of the oil-boom collapse had
Houston area seems clearly to have been due, at least in
registered in the prolonged downturn of the mid-1980s
part, to the drop from 15 percent in the 2018 survey to 7
did the survey respondents become preoccupied with
percent this year in the numbers who named flooding as
economic issues. The percentages naming the economy
the dominating problem. Now that Houston’s vulnerability
as the most serious problem in the Houston area peaked
to flooding is losing some of its subjective salience and
at 71 percent in early 1987, at precisely the lowest point in
immediacy, traffic has reemerged as by far the greatest
the recession.
preoccupation, the most obvious long-term challenge to
By the 1990s, the recovery was underway and worries Houston’s quality of life, as growing numbers keep trying
about crime, fueled by the crack cocaine epidemic, to find a way to get around in this sprawling, automobile-
were now predominating, mentioned spontaneously by dependent metropolis.
70 percent of area residents in 1995. In the years since
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyKen
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the Growing Inequalities
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roblematic as it is, traffic congestion is clearly not the most critical factor that will determine
Houston’s prospects in the twenty-first century. That distinction surely belongs to the
challenge of preparing today’s young people for the jobs that will be generated in the
new knowledge-based, global economy. In a nationwide shift that began around 1980 and has
accelerated since then, the availability in America of well-paying blue-collar jobs, requiring only
modest levels of formal education and technical skills, has fallen precipitously, as a consequence of
outsourcing and automation, further compounded by political denial and government paralysis.
As reported by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 32 percent of
all the jobs that existed in America in 1973 were available to high school dropouts and another 40
percent required no more than a high school diploma. In sum, almost three-quarters of all American
jobs in the 1970s required no more than a high school degree. By 2020, in sharp contrast, 65
percent of all the available jobs will require some kind of post-secondary training. Yet according to a
recent analysis, of all the students in Houston-area schools who were enrolled in the eighth grade in
2006, only 22 percent had obtained any post-secondary certificate or degree by 2017, twelve years
later.
Area residents clearly recognize the practical importance of access to a quality education. In 2019
the survey participants were asked about this statement: “In order to get a job that pays more than
$35,000 a year, you need to have at least one or two years of education beyond high school.” As
seen in Figure 4, 67 percent overall agreed with that assertion; fewer than a third disagreed. In 2018,
area residents were more evenly divided on this question, at 54 to 46 percent.
Many Houstonians continue to believe that, if only Hispanics and African Americans valued
education and understood its importance the way the Anglos and Asians do, we would have no
problem: Everyone would get the education they need to succeed in America. So it is important
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 38 Years of Houston Surveys12 THE EDUCATION CRISIS AND THE GROWING INEQUALITIES
Figure 4 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2019)
The need for education beyond high school to qualify for a well-paid job (2019)
“In order to get a job that pays more than $35,000 a year, you need
to have at least one or two years of education beyond high school.”
80 Disagree Agree 76
70 67 68 66
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
60 55
50 45
40 34
33 32
30 24
20
10
0
All Respondents US-born Anglos US-born Blacks US-born Hispanics Foreign-born Hispanics
Figure 5 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (1995–2018)
The adequacy of funding for the public schools in Houston (1995–2018)
60
[Have enough money] 56
54 54
55 51
49 49 48
50
46 46
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
49 49
42 46 42
46
40 38 37
[More money will be needed] Which comes closer to your opinion about the
30 public schools in Houston: “The schools have
enough money, if it were used wisely, to provide
a quality education”; or: “In order for the schools
20
to provide a quality education, significantly more
money will be needed.”
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2018
Significantly more money will be needed The schools have enough money, if it were used wisely
to acknowledge, as indicated in the breakdown of If Houston’s African-American and Hispanic young people
responses by ethnicity in Figure 4, that African Americans are not getting the education they need to succeed in
and Hispanics, by 68 and 66 percent, respectively, are today’s economy, it is demonstrably not because they
much more inclined than Anglos, at 55 percent, to affirm do not value that education or recognize its importance.
the importance of post-secondary education. Hispanic It is because these two communities are the most likely
immigrants, by a margin of 76 to 24 percent, are by far the to be living in areas of concentrated disadvantage, in
most likely to acknowledge the high levels of educational overcrowded, underfunded inner-city schools, with all the
attainment that are required to qualify for a decent job in additional out-of-class barriers that poverty imposes on a
America today. young person’s ability to succeed in the public schools—
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyTHE EDUCATION CRISIS AND THE GROWING INEQUALITIES 13
Figure 6 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2017–19)
The prevalence of economic hardship in Harris County today (2017–2019)
45
39
40
35
35 33
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
31
30
25
25
20
15
10
5
0
Could not come up No health Household income Had problem paying Had problem paying
with $400 in case of insurance less than $37,500 for housing in the for food in the
emergency (2019) (2019) (2019) past year (2018) past year (2017)
the decaying neighborhoods, the constant threats of schools have all the money they need to provide a good
hunger and homelessness, the unmet social, medical and education. During the ensuing ten years, from 1999
dental needs, the continuing disruptions as impoverished through 2009, the respondents were evenly divided in their
families keep moving in search of cheaper apartments. assessments of the adequacy of school funding.
Add to this a clear-eyed view of the new demographic We asked that same question again ten years later. In 2018
realities—the rapidly aging population of Anglos and the a solid majority of area residents (by 56 to 42 percent) were
disproportionate numbers of underserved minorities among now clear in their view that the schools will need significantly
the children of Houston. According to the latest U.S. more money in order to provide a quality education. The
Census, more than 70 percent of everyone in Harris County data underscore a potentially consequential shift among
who is under the age of 20 is African-American or Hispanic, area residents in their understanding of the urgent need for
and too many are graduating from high school unprepared larger and more sustained investments in public education
for college and unqualified for the jobs that will pay a living if Houston is to succeed in the new economy.
wage and enable them find a place in the new economy. If
The formidable inequalities in school attainment are
the educational deficits are not addressed effectively and
reflected, not surprisingly, in deepening disparities in
soon, the stage will be set for an exploding underclass of
family incomes and in measures of economic well-being
Houston citizens who will have been systematically cut off
more generally. Figure 6 presents five different indicators
from the chance to earn enough money to support a family
of poverty as measured in the surveys. The interviews
in today’s high-tech global economy.
in 2019 asked the representative sample of Harris
The survey participants have been asked over the years County residents what they would do if they suddenly
if they thought the public schools in the Houston area had to come up with $400 to deal with an unexpected
generally have enough money, if it were used wisely, to emergency. Almost four out of ten (39 percent) said they
provide a quality education; or whether they believed either would have to borrow the money or they would
instead that, “In order for the schools to provide a quality simply not be able to come up with that kind of money
education, significantly more money will be needed.” As right now. Just 60 percent of Harris County residents said
seen in Figure 5, during the mid-1990s, when the question they had enough in savings to meet a $400 emergency
was first asked, decisive majorities, by 54 and 55 percent expense. These Houston figures are similar to those
to 38 and 37 percent, were clear in their belief that the recorded in the national polls.
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys14 THE EDUCATION CRISIS AND THE GROWING INEQUALITIES
Figure 7 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2009–2019)
Support for programs to reduce the inequalities in American society (2009–2019)
70 66 66
62 62
59
60 62
52 59 53
50 58
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
47
50 45 45 44
41
39
40 43
34
30
30
The government should take action to reduce income differences in America.
20 Government has a responsibility to help reduce the inequalities in America.
Welfare benefits generally give poor people a chance to get started again.
10 Most people who receive welfare benefits are really in need of help.
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
The Texas Medical Center is the greatest conglomeration The widespread prevalence of poverty and homelessness
of medical institutions in the world, but Houston is also in this affluent metro area is becoming increasingly difficult
among the major American cities that have the highest to ignore. In alternating years between 2009 and 2019,
percentage of children without health insurance. Fully one- as indicated in Figure 7, the surveys have replicated
fourth of all the participants in the 2019 survey said they four questions that ask about the role of government in
and their families did not have health insurance. Almost expanding economic opportunities and in reducing the
one-third reported total household incomes of less than impact of concentrated disadvantage.
$37,500. In the 2018 survey, 35 percent said they had
The proportions who agree that the government should
difficulty paying for housing, and 33 percent in 2017 said
take action to reduce income differences between rich
they had a serious problem buying the groceries they
and poor in America grew from 45 percent in 2010
needed to feed their families during the past year.
to 62 percent in 2014 and to 66 percent in 2018.
The percentages who assert that government has a
responsibility to help reduce the inequalities grew from
50 percent in 2009 to 62 percent in this year’s survey.
The respondents were also asked if they believed that
most people who receive welfare benefits are really in
need of help, or are taking advantage of the system. The
percentages who thought that welfare recipients really
need the help grew from 30 percent in 2010 to 47 percent
in 2018. And 53 percent of the survey respondents in
2019, up from 34 percent in 2009, claimed that welfare
benefits generally give poor people a chance to get started
again; only 44 percent in 2019 asserted instead that
such handouts encourage poor people to stay poor and
dependent.
Joe Wolf/flickr
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area Surveyr
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Feeling More at 2C2
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Home with Houston’s
Burgeoning Diversity
T
hroughout its history, Houston was essentially a bi-racial Southern city dominated and
controlled by white men. In 1960, Harris County was 70 percent Anglo and 20 percent African
American. In the space of the last thirty years, it has been transformed into one of the most
ethnically and culturally diverse metro areas in the country. By 2016, the census estimates indicate
that Anglos now comprised 31 percent of the county’s total population; Hispanics were 42 percent,
blacks were 19 percent, Asians and others were 8 percent.
All of the region’s ethnic groups are now minorities, all of them called upon to build something
that has never existed before in human history—a truly successful, inclusive, equitable, and united
multiethnic society that will be Houston, and Texas, and America as the twenty-first century unfolds.
The surveys suggest that area residents are adapting pretty well in the process of navigating this
remarkable transition.
One of the most consistent and consequential trends the surveys have recorded is the continuing
improvements in support for immigration and the increasingly positive attitudes toward Houston’s
diversity. The proportion of U.S.-born Anglos in Harris County, for example, who said they were
in favor of granting illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship if they speak English and have
no criminal record has continued to grow, from 56 percent in 2010 and 60 percent in 2012 to 65
percent in 2016 and to 71 percent in this year’s survey.
Figure 8 shows the changes on three additional questions, which we have been asking since the
1990s. The proportion of U.S.-born Anglo respondents who believed that immigrants generally
contribute more to the American economy than they take grew from 30 percent in 1994 to 48
percent in 2018. The numbers asserting that the increasing immigration into this country today mostly
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 38 Years of Houston Surveys16 FEELING MORE AT HOME WITH HOUSTON’S BURGEONING DIVERSITY
Figure 8 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (1994–2019)
Attitudes toward immigrants among U.S.-born Anglos in Houston (1994–2019)
80
68 69 68 70
70
59
60 56
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
54
52 50 50 50 49
50 47 46
44 44
42
48
40 36 42
33
30 37
30
29
20 Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take.
The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens American culture.
10
Houston’s increasing ethnic diversity will become a source of great strength for the region.
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
YEAR OF SURVEY
Figure 9 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (1995–2019)
Support for admitting more or the same number of legal immigrants in the next ten years,
in three U.S.-born ethnic communities (1995–2019)
100
86 87 88
90
82 82
77 77 79 78
80 73 73
71 72
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
66 67 68
70
62 72 74
59 60 59 71
60 57 55
52 53 53
50 U.S.-born Anglos
50 46 46 46 47
53 42 U.S.-born Blacks
40 33 44 U.S.-born Hispanics
30 33
31
20 “During the next ten years, would you like to see the U.S.
Percent saying, “more” admit more, fewer, or about the same number of legal
10 or “the same number.” immigrants as were admitted in the last ten years?”
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture grew communities also growing more comfortable with diversity
from 33 percent in 1997 to 49 percent in this year’s survey. and immigration over the years? In alternating surveys
And the percentage of U.S.-born Anglos who thought since 1995, we have asked the respondents whether
that Houston’s diversity will eventually become a source of they think the United States should admit more, fewer, or
great strength for the city, rather than a growing problem, about the same number of legal immigrants in the next ten
increased from 59 percent in 1998 to 70 percent in 2018. years as were admitted in the past ten years. In all three of
Houston’s major ethnic communities, as Figure 9 indicates,
Have comparable changes been occurring among
the trends are similar and compelling.
U.S.-born blacks and Hispanics? Are the two minority
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyFEELING MORE AT HOME WITH HOUSTON’S BURGEONING DIVERSITY 17
The percent of U.S.-born Anglos who were calling on truly American? Are they remaining in their co-ethnic
the country to admit more or the same number of legal enclaves, keeping with their foreign ways, and refusing to
immigrants in the next ten years grew from 33 percent in assimilate? All those early fears are rapidly fading in this
1995, to 59 percent in 2001, to 62 percent in 2005, to new world of thriving interethnic friendships and increasing
68 percent in 2013, and to 78 percent in 2019. In very rates of intermarriage.
similar fashion, the percentage of U.S.-born blacks calling
In alternating years since 2002, we have asked the survey
for the same number or more immigrants to be admitted
respondents if they had close personal friends from each
increased from 31 percent in 1995 to 74 percent today.
of the other three major ethnic groups in Houston. The
Among U.S.-born Hispanics, the numbers grew from 52
numbers increased in every community with regard to
percent to 88 percent.
every ethnicity. The proportion of Anglos who said they
The respondents from all three U.S.-born communities had a close friend who was African-American grew from
are increasingly rejecting the call for further restrictions 69 percent in 2002 to 80 percent in 2019. The numbers of
on the number of new immigrants coming to America. blacks who had a close friend who was Asian expanded
Undocumented immigration has slowed in recent years, from 32 to 54 percent. The percentage of Hispanics with
so the fear of an invasion of dangerous foreigners has an Anglo friend grew from 49 to 65 percent. The numbers
faded. The immigration concerns today have much more of Asians with a close personal friend who was Hispanic
to do with addressing the desperate needs of the large increased from 53 to 83 percent.
numbers of refugees seeking asylum, rather than with
In an earlier report, we asked whether the increase among
undocumented immigrants thought to be pouring into this
U.S.-born Anglos in their support for immigration and in
country, threatening American jobs and public safety.
their comfort with diversity was because they have been
The continuing growth in the numbers of Asians and changing their minds about the impact of immigration (i.e.,
Hispanics in America today is no longer due primarily intracohort change). Or were the more positive attitudes
to the influx of new immigrants; it is mainly attributable due instead to the coming of age of younger Anglos who
instead to the coming of age of the 100-percent American are entering adulthood with more positive attitudes toward
young people who are the U.S.-born children of the immigration and diversity than those of their elders (cohort
immigrants who came here 25 and 30 years ago. Will the succession)? The second hypothesis was the one most
new immigrants ever learn English? Will they ever become clearly supported by the data: The major force responsible
Figure 10 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2007, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018)
Interethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos and Blacks (2007–2018, combined)
“Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo/Black?”
58+42 61+39 52+48 42+58 29+71 18+82
58% 61% 52% 42% 29% 18%
67+33 55+45 53+47 35+65 26+74 18+82
67%
18–29
55%
30–39
53%
40–49
35%
50–59
26%
60–69
18%
70+
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys18 FEELING MORE AT HOME WITH HOUSTON’S BURGEONING DIVERSITY
for the more welcoming attitudes among Anglos was the this city and nation as they undergo the transition into a
ongoing replacement of one generation by the next. multiethnic world.
Each successive cohort of Anglos and African Americans Among Hispanics and Asians, meanwhile, the most
is bringing more positive interethnic attitudes into the important determinant of interethnic friendships, not
public arena. Today’s older respondents grew up in the surprisingly, is whether they are the U.S.-born children
America of the 1960s and 1970s; that was a profoundly of earlier waves of immigrants, or whether they are first-
different era from the 1990s and 2000s, when the younger generation immigrants themselves, more likely to be
generations were coming of age. Biography intersects ensconced in their co-ethnic enclaves and less likely to be
with history to shape the way people experience the fluent in English. Figure 11 shows that relationship among
world: Among Anglos and African Americans, one of the Hispanics in Houston.
most powerful predictors of comfort with diversity and
Fully 80 percent of the U.S.-born Hispanics, compared to
of interethnic friendships is simply their age or year of
62 percent of the first-generation immigrants, report having
birth. Older respondents are less likely than their younger
a close personal friend who is Anglo. The generational
counterparts to report having close personal friends
differences in friendship networks are even greater with
from the other ethnic communities. Figure 10 depicts
regard to relationships between Hispanics and blacks:
the differences by age among Anglos and blacks in the
79 percent of the American-born Hispanics, but just
proportions who report having been in an interethnic
49 percent of the first-generation Hispanic immigrants,
romantic relationship.
said they had a close personal friend who was African-
The Anglo and African-American respondents were asked American. When asked if they had ever been in a romantic
on five different occasions in the past twelve years if they relationship with someone who was not Hispanic, 57
had ever been in a romantic relationship with someone percent of the U.S.-born respondents said they had,
who was not of their ethnicity. As indicated in the Figure, compared with 22 percent of the immigrants.
some 60 percent of those in their 20s and 30s answered in
Figure 12 depicts a very similar pattern among the two
the affirmative. The numbers declined to about 40 percent
groups of Asians. The Asian immigrants are far less likely
among the respondents aged 50 to 59, then dropped to
than the U.S.-born to have close personal friends from the
29 and 26 percent for those aged 60 to 69, and to just 18
other ethnic communities; but note that they are more likely
percent for ages 70 and older. The successive generations
to have such friends than are the Latino immigrants, fewer
have come of age under distinctly different circumstances.
of whom are middle-class professionals or fluent English
Younger Americans of all ethnicities across most of the speakers. Thus 71 percent of Asian immigrants, compared
country have been growing up in a world where ethnic to 62 percent of their Hispanic counterparts, said they
diversity is part of their lived experience and close intergroup have a close personal friend who is Anglo; and 61 percent
relationships are increasingly common. The world of the of the Asians, in contrast to 49 percent of the Hispanics,
2000s and 2010s, when the younger generations were have a close personal friend who is African American.
coming of age, is a place of thriving interethnic friendships The figures were more comparable when asking about
and increasing rates of intermarriage. This is a decidedly romantic relationships: 50 percent of U.S.-born Asians and
different era compared to the more rigidly segregated world 57 percent of U.S.-born Hispanics said they had indeed
of the 1960s and 1970s, when today’s older Americans been in a relationship of that sort, compared to 32 and 22
were moving into adulthood. percent of the first-generation immigrants.
There is a well-known law of human nature that states in Consistent with these findings, the surveys indicate that 28
essence: “What I am familiar with feels right and natural. percent of all married U.S.-born Hispanics in Harris County
What I’m unfamiliar with feels unnatural and somehow are married to non-Hispanics. The U.S. Census reports
not quite right.” The more recent generations of area that Asian Americans are the most likely of all the major
residents are taking for granted what earlier generations racial or ethnic communities in America to live in mixed
still find difficult to accept. The ongoing replacement of neighborhoods and to marry across racial lines: Of all the
the generations will surely help to smooth the evolution of Asian newlyweds between 2015 and 2017, for example,
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyFEELING MORE AT HOME WITH HOUSTON’S BURGEONING DIVERSITY 19
Figure 11 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2007–2018)
Interethnic friendships among U.S.-born and foreign-born Hispanics (2007–2018)
100
90 U.S.-Born Hispanics Hispanic Immigrants
80 79
80
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
70
62
60 57
49 48
50
40
30 26
22
20
10
0
Have a close friend Have a close friend Have a close friend Have been in a
who is Anglo who is Black who is Asian romantic relationship
with a non-Hispanic
Figure 12 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2007–2018)
Interethnic friendships among U.S.-born and foreign-born Asians (2007–2018)
100
90 U.S.-Born Asians Asian Immigrants
81
78
80 73
71
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
70 63
61
60
50
50
40
32
30
20
10
0
Have a close friend Have a close friend Have a close friend Have been in a
who is Anglo who is Black who is Hispanic romantic relationship
with a non-Asian
almost three out of ten (29 percent) had married someone suggested, is not so much an ethnic divide, as a class
who was not Asian. Black intermarriage rates have more divide, although the two (of course) are closely interrelated.
than tripled in the past forty years, growing from 5 percent Today’s global, high-tech, knowledge-based economy
in 1980 to 18 percent today. is generating a growing middle class and a growing
underclass in all four of America’s ethnic communities,
This nation is moving inexorably into what sociologists
predicated above all else on access to quality education.
have been calling a “trans-racial” world, where ethnicity is
becoming more fluid and inherently less relevant. The real
danger for the future of Houston and America, many have
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveyskr
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anie
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After Harvey
A
re the effects of Hurricane Harvey fading from public consciousness or has a new and
lasting determination to strengthen government controls taken hold in an effort to mitigate
the effects of future flooding? The 2019 survey replicated several questions from 2018 to
measure the stability of the concerns that area residents were expressing when asked about these
issues so soon after the storm made landfall in August 2017. As shown in Figure 13 and as noted
earlier, flooding issues were less salient in 2019 than the year before, when the respondents were
asked to name the biggest problem in the Houston area today.
Figure 13 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2017–19)
20+15+
24+15161AW 15+
26+1514AW 35+1511717AW
The biggest problem in Houston: The rise and fall of spontaneous concerns
about flooding
15% 15% 17% 15%
24% 20%
7%
13% 15%
1% 2017 2018 2019
25% 11%
24% 34% 36%
16%
14% 14%
15% 15%
15%
Don’t know Crime Flooding
Traffic Economy Other
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyAFTER HARVEY 21
Figure 14 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2018–2019)
The likelihood of future storms and support for flood-mitigation controls (2018–2019)
100
90 2018
80 76 75
71
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
2019
70
60 56 55
50
50
40
30
20
10
0
It is almost certain that the Houston % favor prohibiting any additional % favor increasing local taxes to
region will experience more severe construction in areas of Houston enable government agencies to buy
storms during the next 10 years that have repeatedly flooded. out more of the homes that have
compared to the past 10 years. repeatedly flooded
Only one percent of the respondents in February 2017, of the respondents in this year’s survey. Similarly though
before Harvey, thought of flooding and storms when less dramatically, 50 percent today, compared to 55
asked to name the most salient issue in the Houston percent in 2018, said they were in favor of increasing local
region. Shortly after that great rainfall event, 15 percent taxes to enable government agencies to buy out more of
spontaneously named the floods as the biggest problem. the homes that have repeatedly flooded. The instinctive
Attention to storms and resiliency faded to just 7 percent resistance to an increase in government controls over the
in 2017, and mentions of traffic jumped from 25 to 36 initiatives of the private sector is still firmly embedded, it
percent. Has the declining salience of flooding issues would seem, in Houston’s basic DNA.
affected area residents’ continued
willingness to support major
interventions intended to reduce the
region’s vulnerability to future storms?
Figure 14 suggests that it has in some
respects but not in others.
There has been no change at all from
last year to this in the clear majorities,
at 76 and 75 percent who agree, “It is
almost certain that the Houston region
will experience more severe storms
during the next ten years compared to
the past ten years.” However, support
for more stringent government
regulations has declined. In 2018, 71
percent were in favor of prohibiting
any additional construction in areas of
G Witteveen/flickr
Houston that have repeatedly flooded;
that was the case for just 56 percent
Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 38 Years of Houston Surveys22 AFTER HARVEY
Figure 15 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2010–2019)
Concerns about climate change and calls for better land-use planning (2010–2019)
The threat of climate change “We need better land-use planning to
is a “very serious problem.” guide development in the Houston area.”
80 80 75
68 70
70 70 64
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
60 60
52 53
50 46 50
42 40
39
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2014 2017 2018 2019
Two other questions, depicted in Figure 15, make it clear as the memory of the storm has receded, the perceived
that continuing changes are taking place in the survey seriousness of climate change is unchanged, at 53
participants’ broader perspectives. In 2010, only 39 percent, in the 2019 survey.
percent thought that the threat of climate change was a
The respondents in 2019 were also asked if they
very serious problem. That concern grew to 46 percent
believed that “we need better land-use planning to guide
in 2016, and then jumped to 52 percent in 2018, soon
development in the Houston area,” or if they agreed
after Harvey. Instead of any lessening of concern today
instead that “people and businesses
should be free to build wherever they
want.” The proportion calling for more
effective land-use planning grew from
64 percent in 2017 to 70 percent in
2018, and then increased further to
75 percent in 2019.
The surveys underline the profound
ambivalence that so many feel about
how to respond to the growing
dangers of flooding: Area residents
continue to resist any additional
government interference in developer
decisions, even as they also clearly
recognize the region’s deepening
vulnerability to severe storms and the
need for new forms of public action.
Adam Baker/flickr
The 2019 Kinder Houston Area SurveyContinuity and Change
kr
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an
Uthm
Ed
in Political Orientations
H
arris County residents are gradually becoming both more secular (see the rise of the
“Nones” in last year’s report) and more aligned with the Democratic Party. Beginning in
1984, the survey participants were asked if they would call themselves a Republican, a
Democrat, an Independent, or something else. Those who did not indicate an affiliation were asked
if they thought of themselves as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party. Figure 16 shows the
percentages of area residents over the years who chose Republican or Democrat in answer to either
of these two questions.
Through most of the early years of the survey, at least until 2005, area residents were evenly divided
between the two political parties. In that year, 37 percent of the survey participants said they were
affiliated with or leaning toward the Republican Party and 35 percent said they leaned toward
the Democrats. In the surveys since then, however, the proportion of Democrats has increased
decisively, reaching 52 percent in 2016, 44 percent in 2018, and 48 percent in this year’s survey.
Meanwhile, the numbers of Republicans have hardly changed at all, at around 29 to 33 percent
across all the years. The partisan gap looked as if it might be closing in 2018, but it expanded again
to reach a differential of almost 20 points in 2019.
Figure 17 shows the partisan divides on the question of whether the country is headed for better
times or more difficult times. In February 2017, soon after Donald Trump’s election, the survey
revealed a striking, if unsurprising, reversal in perspectives on the American future as expressed by
Republicans and Democrats.
The 2018 survey found an even stronger separation, with 71 percent of Republicans asserting that
the country was headed for better times and 76 percent of Democrats convinced instead that more
difficult times now lay ahead. That was the largest gap ever seen on this question, so it was not
surprising to find the divide moderating in this year’s survey, as the Democrats became somewhat
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