TCS Ltd. Initiating coverage
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TCS Ltd.
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TCS Ltd.
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1
TCS Ltd.
Industry CMP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon
IT Consulting &Software Rs. 2237 Buy at Rs 2162-2172 band & add on dips at Rs 2022-2032 band Rs.2358 Rs.2497 2 quarters
HDFC Scrip Code TATCONEQNR Our Take:
BSE Code 532540 Lockdown, due to ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, impacted TCS Q1FY21 numbers. However, we expect TCS to be a key beneficiary of the
NSE Code TCS COVID-19-driven increase in technology intensity across verticals over the medium term. TCS has decided to open up on the lateral hiring
Bloomberg TCS IN side and has started onboarding new associates into the TCS ecosystem. TCS plans to hire 40,000 fresh candidates from campuses across
CMP Aug 28, 2020 2237 the country. As demand improves and growth revives, margins are expected to expand.
Equity Capital (Rscr) 375.2
Face Value (Rs) 1.0
TCS will continue to leverage its good market position to tap emerging opportunities. Demand for discretionary IT software and services
Equity Share O/S (cr) 375.2 are likely to remain weak in the coming quarters as clients look to trim budgets to conserve liquidity. However, order inflows are taking
Market Cap (Rscrs) 839,408.5 place and coming to pre COVID level. TCS has a strong position in the Indian IT services industry led by breadth and depth in service lines,
Book Value (Rs) 225.9 geographies and verticals, integrated offerings, significant lead in automation skills, strong and stable base of experienced employees with
Avg. 52 Wk Volumes 3.803,119 depth lateral and contextual knowledge and Strong product, platform and agile delivery capabilities.
52 Week High 2357.2 The strength of its Mission 25X25 execution model (25% workforce to work from office by 2025) led by Secure Borderless Workspaces
52 Week Low 1504.4 (SBWS) and its sizable ~38mn hours of training in relevant technology, position it strongly to gain market share and cost rationalization.
Share holding Pattern % (June, 2020) Valuations & Recommendation:
Promoters 72.1 TCS has a track record of adapting new and agile technologies and consistently maintained its market share, best in class operational
Institutions 23.9 metrics and comparatively better growth in industry across the geographies as well as verticals. Q1FY21 was subdued quarter, impacted
Non Institutions 4.0 by softness in business activities along with supply side constraints, which are expected to normalize going forward. The recovery in BFSI
Total 100.0 could be seen from Q2FY21 onwards whereas Retail segment might take some time to recover. We expect a repeat of past post crisis
opportunity for IT services when it benefitted out of a wave of fresh outsourcing and offshoring demand given India’s large pool of
Fundamental Research Analyst engineers and low cost advantage. The sector benefits out of low cyclicality supported by high-annuity/client longevity, diversified
Abdul Karim industry verticals, growth drivers across cycles and strong cash generation and capital allocation. TCS being a leader in the sector could
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com benefit more. The stock is trading at valuations of ~23.7x FY22E earnings. We think the Base case fair value of the stock is Rs 2358
(25.0xFY22E EPS) and the bull case fair value of the stock is Rs 2497 (26.5xFY22E EPS) over the next 2 quarters. Investors can buy the
stock at the 2162-2172 band (23.0XFY22E EPS) and add on dips at Rs 2022-2032 band (21.5XFY22E EPS).
2
TCS Ltd.
Financial Summary (Consolidated)
Particulars (Rs cr) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY (%) Q4FY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Operating Income 38322.0 38172.0 0.4 39946.0 -4.1 1,46,463.0 1,56,949.0 1,56,446.3 1,72,155.4
EBITDA 10024.0 10037.0 -0.1 10976.0 -8.7 39,506.0 42,109.0 42,250.6 48,368.6
Depreciation 976.0 817.0 19.5 951.0 2.6 2,056.0 3,529.0 3,922.4 4,345.1
Other Income 142.0 257.0 -44.7 251.0 -43.4 4,311.0 4,592.0 3,071.2 3,333.9
Interest Cost 598.0 1675.0 -64.3 738.0 -19.0 198.0 924.0 568.0 571.9
Tax 2455.0 2485.0 -1.2 2419.0 1.5 10,001.0 9,801.0 9,973.6 11,228.5
APAT 7008.0 8131.0 -13.8 8049.0 -12.9 31,562.0 32,447.0 30,857.8 35,557.0
Diluted EPS (Rs) 18.7 21.7 -13.8 21.5 -12.9 83.9 86.2 81.8 94.2
RoE-% 35.2 38.4 36.7 40.4
P/E (x) 26.7 26.0 27.4 23.7
EV/EBITDA 20.2 19.3 19.2 16.8
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Recent Developments
Below expectation Q1FY21 numbers, while deals intake remained robust
TCS reported below expectation numbers in Q1FY21, dented by lockdown-led supply and demand challenges. Consolidated net profit was
down by 12.9 per cent (QoQ) to Rs 7,008 crore, impacted by lower other income. Consolidated revenue declined 4.1 per cent (QoQ) to Rs
38,322 crore due to COVID-19 pandemic and it impacted all segments barring BFSI. However, revenue increased 0.4 per cent (YoY).
Revenue in constant currency for the quarter dropped 6.9 per cent (QoQ), constant currency revenue growth in Q4FY20 was at 3 per cent
and 10.6 per cent in Q1FY20 on QoQ basis. On the operating front, EBIT declined 9.7 per cent (QoQ) to Rs 9,048 crore and margin fell 148
bps (QoQ) to 23.6 per cent in Q1FY21. Net profit was down by 12.9 per cent (QoQ) and 13.8 per cent (YoY) to Rs 7,008 crore.
TCS deal wins remained robust at US$ 6.9bn in Q1FY21, vs. US$ 8.9bn in Q4FY20. TCS reported a robust YoY jump of 21% in TCV in
Q1FY21. Of the deal wins reported in Q1FY21 at US$ 6.9bn, the US geography contributed US$ 3.3bn.The BFSI and Retail vertical
contributed US$ 2.1bn and US$ 0.9bn, respectively. Four clients were added in the US$ 100mn+ bracket, 11 in the US$ 20mn+ bracket and
13 in the US$ 5mn+ band. Company expects a more balanced pipeline going forward.
3TCS Ltd.
Recent deal wins display TCS’ ability to capitalize its domain expertise and close multiple managed service deals.
American pharmacy retailer Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has expanded its strategic partnership with IT services provider Tata
Consultancy Services (TCS) in February this year. The 10-year deal, valued at over $1.5 billion, is part of WBA’s initiative to advance the
transformation of its global IT operation to fast-track digitisation and drive efficiencies. TCS will launch a new operating model for IT run
and operational services, enabling WBA to accelerate its digitization programme to advance innovation for customers, drive
organizational efficiencies across the company and further reduce its cost base.
Long term Triggers
Diversified portfolio, strong client base with high repeat business
TCS offers a diversified portfolio of services, including consulting and service integration, digital transformation services and cognitive
business operations. Based on industry classification, the company has five key verticals: (1) banking, financial services and insurance
(BFSI), (2) retail and consumer business, (3) communication, media and technology, (4) manufacturing, and (5) others. The last category
includes life sciences and healthcare, technology and services, energy, resources and utilities, and others.
The company has a large, diversified and growing client base with meaningful incremental addition of clients in the above $20 million,
$50-million and $100-million buckets in FY20. Its superior execution ability has resulted in high repeat business, thus providing stability to
the revenue stream.
TCS is the industry ‘gold standard’ and is likely to be a big beneficiary of vendor consolidation, supported by its scale and end-to-end
services capability. The seamless virtual environment of deal closure, transition and execution of large deals has also lowered the supply-
related risks.
In times of Work From Home, client relationships could be as a key factor in signing large contracts virtually. TCS’ wide client base of more
than 1000 as of FY20 with about 100 of them generating >$50mn annual revenue and wide geographic presence could provide a strong
base to gain market share with its existing client base.
Focused on increasing share of digital business
TCS’ ability to offer full service capability has helped it win deals across a wide spectrum of verticals. It has also demonstrated the ability
to structure and execute large-scale projects globally, enabling it to continually gain market share over its competitors in the past five
fiscals. TCS has made significant organic investments in manpower training and developing capabilities, which has helped it to drive high
4TCS Ltd.
sequential growth in its digital business and win transformational digital deals. This has led to an improvement in the share of its digital
business, which stood at more than 33 per cent.
Demand is expected to increase for services around digital channels, collaboration and workplace transformation, online learning and
workforce analytics. TCS’ spend on R&D and innovation centre expenditure (1.2% of revenue) increased by 12.5% in FY20 as compared to
revenue growth of 7.2%. Technology is seen as a source of competitive differentiation in every industry and technology intensity or
spends on technology as a percentage of revenue will rise in the medium to long term.
Robust financial profile, given healthy profitability, cash accruals and robust liquidity position
TCS’ revenue declined in 1QFY21, 20% was attributable to supply side issues, it is likely to be resolved going forward as economies start up
again. However, TCS’ financial profile remains robust as reflected in its high operating profitability, strong capital structure and robust
liquidity position in the form of a strong cash and equivalents balance of Rs. 39,465cr as on June 30, 2020. TCS has been consistently able
to generate strong cash flow from operations supported by its healthy operating profitability and controlled working capital intensity.
Due to higher profitability compared to its peers, Company has been enjoying with higher return ratio over the past, RoE stood at 38.4 per
cent in FY20 and we expect the same to be maintained going forward.
TCS has declared an interim dividend of Rs 5 per Equity Share of Re 1 each of the Company. Despite the high dividend payouts and
buybacks during the current and past two fiscals, the company’s liquidity is expected to remain strong given the high recurring operating
cash flows.
TCS’s FY20 annual report reflects its massive average cash distribution of Rs300bn over the past three years. The company’s Operating
Cashflow has been consistently 96% of profits for the last three years. Continuity in the payout levels, greater thrust towards WFH (SBWS
operating framework) will be RoE accretive.
What could go wrong?
COVID-19 pandemic, INR appreciation against the USD, geopolitical uncertainty, pricing pressure, stricter immigration as well as
outsourcing norms, higher visa cost and H-1B and L1 visas cancellation by US authority are key concern.
An US appeals court upheld compensatory damages of US$ 140 million against TCS in an intellectual property lawsuit filed by Epic
Systems Corp. The Verona, Wisconsin-based company had claimed that TCS employees had stolen trade secrets belonging to the
company while working on a project for them. Any adverse development in this context could impact its profitability.
5TCS Ltd.
Overall economic slowdown affecting Technology spending.
Company has a large concentration of revenues, primarily in the BFSI (almost one-third of revenues) segment, although the same is
mitigated by its established relationship with clients as well as deep domain knowledge.
Many of Its clients’ business operations may be negatively impacted due to the economic downturn – resulting in postponement,
termination, suspension of some ongoing projects with Infosys and / or reduced demand for its services and solutions.
Political uncertainty due to presidential election in the US further impacting IT spending decisions in key verticals such as BFSI and
Retail.
Sustained reduction in cash surplus due to large acquisitions or capital return to investors, affecting financial flexibility.
Company Profile:
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is an IT services, consulting and business solutions organization and partnering many of the world’s largest
businesses in their transformational journeys for the last 50 years. It has a global presence, deep domain expertise in multiple industry
verticals and a complete portfolio of IT, BPS, infrastructure, engineering and assurance services – grouped under consulting and service
integration, digital transformation services, cognitive business operations, and products and platforms. TCS offers a consulting-led,
integrated portfolio of. TCS has over 324,000 of the world’s best-trained consultants in 46 countries. TCS has a widespread geographical
presence across North America, Latin America, continental Europe, the United Kingdom (UK), India, Asia Pacific, West Asia and Africa.
Peer Comparison
Company CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr. EPS 12M Rs. OPM % NPM % Div Yld % ROE % P/E P/BV
TCS 2238.6 840176.9 83.2 26.8 19.9 1.5 37.2 26.8 10.0
Infosys 947.1 403385.1 40.1 25.1 18.3 1.9 25.2 23.7 6.1
HCL Technologies 710.2 192710.9 38.3 25.7 16.3 0.7 23.9 16.4 3.8
Wipro 272.4 155633.8 16.9 20.5 15.9 0.4 17.4 16.0 2.8
Tech Mahindra 735.6 71081.1 46.4 14.7 10.8 2.0 19.1 17.6 3.3
L & T Infotech 2496.9 43540.5 90.9 19.1 13.9 1.1 29.5 27.6 8.1
Mindtree 1149.4 18926.8 45.6 15.3 9.6 1.1 19.5 25.2 5.5
6TCS Ltd.
Financials (Consolidated)
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E As at March FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Net Revenues 123104.0 146463.0 156949.0 156446.3 172155.4 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 4.4 19.0 7.2 -0.3 10.0 Share Capital 191.0 375.0 375.0 375.0 375.0
Operating Expenses 90588.0 106957.0 114840.0 114195.7 123786.7 Reserves 84937.0 89071.0 83751.0 83293.6 87137.2
EBITDA 32516.0 39506.0 42109.0 42250.6 48368.6 Shareholders' Funds 85128.0 89446.0 84126.0 83668.6 87512.2
Growth (%) 0.6 21.5 6.6 0.3 14.5 Long Term Debt 54.0 44.0 6906.0 6906.0 6906.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.4 27.0 26.8 27.0 28.1 Net Deferred Taxes -2279.0 -1614.0 -2049.0 -2049.0 -2049.0
Depreciation 2014.0 2056.0 3529.0 3922.4 4345.1 Long Term Provisions & Others 1714.0 1874.0 1405.0 1405.0 1405.0
EBIT 30502.0 37450.0 38580.0 38328.2 44023.5 Minority Interest 402.0 453.0 623.0 762.4 955.8
Other Income 3642.0 4311.0 4592.0 3071.2 3333.9 Total Source of Funds 85019.0 90203.0 91011.0 90693.0 94730.0
Interest expenses 52.0 198.0 924.0 568.0 571.9 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
PBT 34092.0 41563.0 42248.0 40831.4 46785.5 Net Block & Goodwill 11973.0 12290.0 20928.0 20048.2 21074.7
Tax 8212.0 10001.0 9801.0 9973.6 11228.5 CWIP 1278.0 963.0 906.0 906.0 906.0
RPAT 25880.0 31562.0 32447.0 30857.8 35557.0 Other Non-Current Assets 8278.0 6808.0 5926.0 5925.0 5957.4
APAT 25826.0 31472.0 32340.0 30687.3 35363.7 Total Non Current Assets 21529.0 20061.0 27760.0 26879.2 27938.1
Growth (%) -1.8 21.9 2.8 -5.1 15.2 Current Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS 68.8 83.9 86.2 81.8 94.2 Inventories 26.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Trade Receivables 25037.0 27441.0 30606.0 30508.2 33564.2
Cash & Equivalents 13387.0 22836.0 23894.0 23875.6 24449.4
Other Current Assets 42868.0 41939.0 35806.0 36443.5 37086.9
Total Current Assets 81318.0 92226.0 90311.0 90832.4 95105.4
Short-Term Borrowings 181.0 0.0 1268.0 1268.0 1268.0
Trade Payables 5094.0 6292.0 6740.0 6718.4 7393.0
Other Current Liab & Provisions 12553.0 15792.0 19052.0 19032.1 19652.5
Total Current Liabilities 17828.0 22084.0 27060.0 27018.6 28313.5
Net Current Assets 63490.0 70142.0 63251.0 63813.8 66791.9
Total Application of Funds 85019.0 90203.0 91011.0 90693.0 94730.0
7TCS Ltd.
Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E (Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Reported PBT 34,092.0 41,563.0 42,248.0 40,831.4 46,785.5 EBITDA Margin 26.4 27.0 26.8 27.0 28.1
Non-operating & EO items -2,764.7 -3,273.7 -3,526.7 -2,321.0 -2,533.8 EBIT Margin 24.8 25.6 24.6 24.5 25.6
Interest Expenses 52.0 198.0 924.0 568.0 571.9 APAT Margin 21.0 21.5 20.6 19.6 20.5
Depreciation 2,014.0 2,056.0 3,529.0 3,922.4 4,345.1 RoE 30.3 35.2 38.4 36.7 40.4
Working Capital Change -775.0 -894.0 -497.0 -3,217.1 -2,240.4 RoCE 40.1 46.7 51.3 49.5 54.1
Tax Paid -7,609.0 -9,958.0 -9,801.0 -9,973.6 -11,228.5 Solvency Ratio
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 25,009.3 29,691.3 32,876.3 29,810.1 35,699.8 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Capex -1,875.0 -2,053.0 -4,106.0 -2,984.6 -5,371.6 Net D/E 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Free Cash Flow 23,134.3 27,638.3 28,770.3 26,825.5 30,328.2 PER SHARE DATA
Investments 4,534.0 8,250.0 3,766.0 -14,666.1 -603.7 EPS 134.9 83.9 86.2 81.8 94.2
Non-operating income 2,764.7 3,273.7 3,526.7 2,321.0 2,533.8 CEPS 446.8 239.6 225.9 210.4 221.1
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 5,423.7 9,470.7 3,186.7 -15,329.7 -3,441.5 Dividend 52.0 30.0 73.0 65.0 70.0
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -36.0 -191.0 8,130.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS 446.8 239.6 225.9 210.4 221.1
Interest Expenses -52.0 -198.0 -924.0 -568.0 -571.9 Turnover Ratios (days)
FCFE 23,046.3 27,249.3 35,976.3 26,257.5 29,756.3 Debtor days 74.2 68.4 71.2 71.2 71.2
Share Capital Issuance -6.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory days 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend -27,198.6 -29,545.2 -39,625.2 -31,144.8 -31,520.0 Creditors days 15.1 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VALUATION
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -27,292.6 -29,941.2 -32,419.2 -31,712.8 -32,091.9 P/E 16.7 26.7 26.0 27.4 23.7
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 3,140.4 9,220.8 3,643.8 -17,232.4 166.4 P/BV 5.0 9.3 9.9 10.6 10.1
EV/EBITDA 24.5 20.2 19.3 19.2 16.8
EV / Revenues 6.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.7
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 1.4 3.3 2.9 3.2
Dividend Payout (%) 38.5 35.8 84.7 79.5 74.3
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)
8TCS Ltd.
One Year Price Chart
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)
9TCS Ltd.
Disclosure:
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Any holding in stock – No
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