Taiwan's Threatened Democracy Stays on Course
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NO. 7 FEBRUARY 2020 Introduction Taiwan’s Threatened Democracy Stays on Course Fear of China’s Dictatorship Pushes Taiwan’s President to a Landslide Victory Frédéric Krumbein Presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Taiwan on 11 January 2020. The island is de facto a sovereign state and a consolidated democracy but is claimed by the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has been in power since 2016, and her Democratic Progress Party (DPP) won both elections by a clear majority. The DPP stresses Taiwan’s de facto independence. The largest opposi- tion party, Kuomintang (KMT), stands for closer economic cooperation with mainland China. The election campaign was marked by increasing pressure from Beijing on the island and by protests in Hong Kong. Hong Kong serves as a warning to the Taiwanese about what could happen if Taiwan becomes too close to the mainland or even merges with it: The island state could lose its democracy and freedom. In the presidential elections in January, In the parliamentary elections, the dif- Tsai received 57.1 percent of the vote, Han ference in votes between the DPP and the Kuo-yu from the KMT 38.6 percent, and KMT was less marked: 6.4 percentage points. the third candidate, James Soong from the The seats are allocated through a mixture People First Party, 4.3 percent. In parlia- of majority and proportional representation. ment, the DPP has lost 7 seats, but with 61 The reasons for the smaller difference in Members of Parliament, it retains a comfort- votes are, firstly, that some KMT supporters able majority of the total 113 seats. The KMT did not vote for the unpopular Han, but did won 38 seats; smaller parties and independ- vote for their party in the parliamentary elec- ent candidates won the remaining 14 seats. tions; secondly, most small parties did not The clear election victory for Tsai can be nominate their own presidential candidates, explained on the one hand by the fact that as there is no run-off vote. This favors a con- the KMT sent Han Kuo-yu, a weak presiden- centration of votes on just a few candidates. tial candidate, into the race. On the other In the parliamentary elections, however, a hand, the electorate trusts the incumbent part of the electorate then opted for smaller president, rather than the KMT, to protect parties and independent candidates. Taiwan’s democracy and freedom from the People’s Republic.
KMT: Strong Start, Weak Finish internal party primaries, she was able to
assert herself as a candidate. After being
Han has experienced a rapid rise as a poli- defeated, Lai called for support for the
tician during the last one and a half years. president and was nominated by her as a
In November 2018 he was elected mayor candidate for the office of vice president.
of Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern In addition, the “green camp” was able
Taiwan, traditionally a stronghold of the to mobilize its electorate, including the
ruling DPP. His unconventional and people- younger generation. Voter turnout in the
oriented manner, his image as a political presidential elections was 74.9 percent,
outsider, and his promise to make Kaoh- significantly higher than four years ago,
siung rich led many people to vote for him. when it was 66.3 percent.
Almost as fast as his meteoric rise was his With the “Taiwan People’s Party,” a
fall – burning out after coming into con- third force – the “white” force – has
tact with political and economic reality. finally entered the political stage alongside
Han is a classic populist who had promised the “blue” and “green” forces. Founded by
a lot, but in the end was unable to keep the mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, the party
his promises for Kaohsiung, instead “dis- wants to govern unideologically, pragmati-
tinguishing himself” through the chaotic cally, and efficiently – it sees itself as a
management of the city. In addition, there force between the “blue” and “green” camps.
were private scandals, for example an issue The party will have only five seats in the
concerning a luxury apartment, that dam- newly elected parliament; however, in the
aged his image as a “man of the people.” 19 constituencies in which it has been
Shortly after he won the KMT party prima- elected, it has achieved more than 5 percent
ries in July 2019, his decline in the polls of the vote almost everywhere – in one-
began. third of the constituencies even more than
Internal conflicts within the KMT and 10 percent. It is widely believed that Ko will
the “blue camp” of KMT and smaller parties run for president in 2024. His lack of ideol-
close to it contributed to his poor election ogy and his deliberately open political posi-
results. One of the veterans of Taiwanese tions, for example on relations with main-
politics, 77-year-old James Soong, ran for land China, are both his strength and his
president for the fourth time, supported weakness.
by Terry Gou, founder of Apple supplier
Foxconn and one of the richest men on
the island. Soong also stands for a stronger Today Hong Kong,
rapprochement with mainland China and Tomorrow Taiwan?
belongs to the “blue camp.” Gou himself
was defeated by Han in the KMT prelimi- Apart from the “candidate question,” the
nary election polls and then resigned from second main reason for Tsai’s election vic-
the KMT. He and Soong disputed Han’s tory is the fact that Taiwan’s relationship
competence to govern Taiwan. Even parts with mainland China overshadowed other
of the elite of the KMT had little use for the issues in the election.
popular Han. On 2 January 2019, President Xi Jinping
reaffirmed in a keynote address on Taiwan
that a union of the mainland with Taiwan
Mobilization for the DPP and a is inevitable, if necessary by force. It should
New “Third Force” be carried out under the formula “one coun-
try, two systems,” which provides that
In contrast, the “green camp” around Presi- territories within the People’s Republic of
dent Tsai has shown itself to be united. Al- China can have a partially independent
though she had to compete with her former political system. The “one country, two sys-
prime minister, William Lai, in the DPP’s tems” concept was developed 40 years ago
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
2by Deng Xiaoping for Taiwan and later ap- peaceful protest march with up to 2 million
plied to Hong Kong and Macau. Although people.
the People’s Republic did not name a dead- The protests had been sparked by the
line for unification with Taiwan, Xi stressed planned passing of an extradition law. The
that this issue should not be passed on from draft law provided that criminals wanted in
generation to generation. The unspoken mainland China could be extradited there.
end date is (at the latest) the year 2049: Ac- Many Hong Kong citizens feared that the
cording to Xi, the “great rejuvenation of the law could be misused to extradite people
Chinese nation” is to be completed on the there to the People’s Republic who were
occasion of the country’s centennial anni- critical of it. One of Hong Kong’s most im-
versary – and this includes unification portant achievements compared with main-
with Taiwan. land China is the largely intact rule of law.
In Taiwan “one country, two systems” In mainland China, the judiciary has to
was, and is, rejected by the overwhelming bow to the instructions of the CCP in cases
majority of the population, as well as by all of doubt, which does not meet the stand-
parties in parliament. Since Taiwan is de ards of the rule of law. Protests in Hong
facto a sovereign state, the island republic Kong have quickly developed into a move-
can only lose under this concept. ment against the gradual erosion of the
The political line of conflict on Taiwan is city’s remaining freedoms by the People’s
different: between the ideal of an independ- Republic.
ent Taiwan, for which the DPP stands, and The situation in Hong Kong has made
the ideal of a united democratic China, the one thing above all clear to the Taiwanese:
Republic of China, which the KMT is striv- the considerably lower level of democratic
ing for. The Republic of China was founded freedoms under the “one country, two sys-
in 1912 and ended the Chinese Empire. It tems” concept compared to Taiwan. In
was ruled dictatorially by the KMT until the addition, the central government in Beijing
KMT was defeated by the Chinese Commun- and the local government in Hong Kong
ist Party (CCP) in the Chinese Civil War and have shown themselves to be uncompro-
had to flee to Taiwan in 1949. The Republic mising; the only concession made was the
of China still exists there today. Taiwan withdrawal of the controversial extradition
was successfully democratized in the 1990s. law in September 2019. The other four de-
Neither the ideals of the DPP nor the KMT mands of the protest movement have been,
are currently attainable. Accordingly, the and are still being, ignored:
major parties are making efforts to main- 1) the introduction of free and general
tain the status quo, that is, Taiwan’s de elections,
facto independence: the DPP through closer 2) an independent investigation into police
ties to the United States and greater distance violence,
from mainland China, the KMT through 3) an amnesty for all accused protesters and
close economic ties to mainland China. the release of detainees, and
In Taiwan, Xi’s speech was perceived as 4) the demand that the protests not be char-
a hardening of the position toward Taiwan, acterized as riots.
even if Xi essentially only reaffirmed the Instead, the police reacted with harsh-
existing positions of the People’s Republic ness and brutality and have arrested several
on this issue. However, in his speech, he thousand protesters to date, many of them
missed the opportunity to present new students. There have been numerous reports
options for a solution to the conflict that of the mistreatment of detainees. A small
would also be acceptable to Taiwan. part of the protest movement has radical-
A turning point for the election cam- ized itself and committed violence against
paign in Taiwan was the resurgence of the the police, whereas the vast majority re-
democracy movement in Hong Kong. It main peaceful and have the support of the
reached its first climax in June 2019 in a Hong Kong people. On the one hand, the
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
3People’s Republic insists on the “one coun- ing as party leader as a result. The focus in
try, two systems” formula for Taiwan. On the election campaign on relations with
the other hand, the Taiwanese see that – mainland China, the protests in Hong Kong,
compared to their democracy – even the and the disenchantment with Han helped
much more limited democratic freedoms Tsai to make a comeback in 2019. In addi-
and rights in Hong Kong are being under- tion, she has raised the minimum wage
mined by the CCP. several times, implemented tax cuts, and
Tsai has stressed in several speeches and taken other social policy measures, which
statements that Taiwan’s democracy is non- has enabled her to regain her popularity.
negotiable and that “one country, two sys-
tems” is not an acceptable solution. She
also expressed her solidarity with Hong Taiwan’s Exemplary Democracy
Kong’s democracy movement. At the same
time, however, she avoided granting asylum Under Tsai, Taiwan has made further pro-
to a larger number of protesters or other- gress in the areas of democracy and human
wise offering support for the protest move- rights. For example, the rights of Taiwan’s
ment in order not to provoke mainland 16 officially recognized indigenous peoples
China. The KMT also rejects “one country, have been strengthened. In 2016, Tsai be-
two systems,” and Han said during the came the first president of the island state
election campaign that this concept would to apologize for injustices committed in the
only be applied in Taiwan “over his dead treatment of indigenous Taiwanese, who
body.” But the majority of Taiwanese fear make up about 2 percent of the population.
that mainland China could expand its In addition, the authoritarian past was
political influence if there were closer eco- dealt with by setting up a commission to
nomic cooperation, as envisaged in Han’s investigate the period of the KMT dictator-
election platform. ship from 1945 until the complete abolition
of martial law in 1992 and to compensate
victims. Germany’s reappraisal of the Ger-
Solid Economic Development man Democratic Republic (GDR) dictator-
ship serves as a model for this; in December
President Tsai’s first term in office was 2019, a declaration of intent was signed to
marked by sound economic management, facilitate cooperation with the Agency for
democratic progress in Taiwan, difficult the Records of the State Security Service of
relations with mainland China, and close the former GDR.
ties with the United States, Japan, and the In 2019, Taiwan was the first country in
European Union (EU). Asia to introduce same-sex marriage. The
The Taiwanese economy has grown island state is one of the continent’s front-
steadily during Tsai’s first term, averaging runners in terms of freedom of expression
2.5 percent per year from 2016 to 2019. and religion, women’s rights, LGBTQ* rights,
With the reductions in pensions for civil and freedom for civil society. Direct democ-
servants, it has pushed through an impor- racy has been developed in the form of sim-
tant – albeit unpopular – reform for the plified referendum procedures. Together
financial sustainability of the social welfare with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan is the
systems. Many Taiwanese are dissatisfied most developed democracy in Asia and
above all with the almost two decades of the only Chinese democracy that has ever
stagnating wages and the simultaneous existed.
sharp rise in property prices. The president
has not yet been able to solve this problem.
This is one of the reasons why the DPP suf-
fered a crushing defeat in the local elec-
tions in November 2018, with Tsai resign-
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
4Turbulent Relations with China the one hand, it adopted the “31 measures”
in 2018 and a further “26 measures” in 2019
After her election in 2016, Tsai promised to create incentives for Taiwanese workers
to maintain the status quo in relations with and companies to work and invest in main-
mainland China. In her inaugural speech, land China; among other things, Taiwanese
she acknowledged the historical signifi- workers and companies were put on an
cance of the talks between the two sides in equal footing with mainland Chinese in
1992 without fully embracing the concept many areas. Apparently, these measures
of the “1992 Consensus,” which goes back have not yet had the desired effect – in-
to an informal agreement between the CCP vestments by Taiwanese companies on the
and the KMT: Although there is one China, mainland have been declining since 2016.
there are different interpretations of which However, mainland China remains the
state precisely this one China was. The CCP largest market outside Taiwan for Taiwan-
means the People’s Republic of China, the ese workers and companies, with around
KMT the Republic of China. Central from 1 million Taiwanese working there.
the CCP’s point of view is the recognition On the other hand, the People’s Republic
that Taiwan is a part of China, although has put Taiwan under a lot of pressure.
not necessarily the People’s Republic. Firstly, warships and fighter jets regularly
The DPP has never accepted this concept circle the island. In addition, Taiwan is the
and takes the view that the Taiwanese victim of an estimated 15 million cyber-
people must decide on Taiwan’s sovereignty. attacks per month from the People’s Repub-
In her inaugural speech, Tsai went a long lic.
way toward accommodating mainland China Secondly, the People’s Republic of China
by explicitly mentioning the 1992 talks. has further restricted Taiwan’s already lim-
She had not received a mandate for fur- ited international scope. Since 2016, the
ther steps toward integration with main- People’s Republic has persuaded seven states
land China. She did, however, leave in force to recognize the People’s Republic diplo-
the 21 agreements that had been ratified matically instead of the Republic of China.
by the KMT with mainland China under her This means that Taiwan is now officially
predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, which primarily recognized as a state by only 15 countries,
concern economic integration. She rejects in Europe only by the Holy See. Pressure is
demands for Taiwanese independence, as being exerted on international companies
raised by the radical wing of her party. to add the word “China” whenever Taiwan
For Xi’s government, however, Tsai’s is mentioned: In 2018, for example, more
inaugural speech and its policies offered than 30 airlines were prompted to change
too little: The People’s Republic demands “Taiwan” to “Taiwan, China” on their web-
the recognition of the “1992 Consensus” sites. Most of them complied with the re-
and further steps toward integration with quest so as not to jeopardize their presence
the aim of uniting Taiwan with the main- on the mainland Chinese market.
land under the formula “one country, two Thirdly, the People’s Republic exerts
systems.” As a consequence, Beijing broke influence on the media in Taiwan. One
off all contact with the government in Tai- strategy is to buy up media companies in
pei after Tsai assumed office in May 2016. Taiwan through China-friendly entrepre-
neurs, who then spread the propaganda of
the People’s Republic. An example of this
“Hide a Dagger behind a Smile” – is the China Times of Taiwanese “cookie
China’s Taiwan Politics tycoon” Tsai Eng-meng, who makes most of
his profits on the mainland. The China Times
After the breakdown of relations, the and other “red media” apparently receive
People’s Republic pursued a double strat- direct instructions from Beijing on how and
egy of “carrot and stick” toward Taiwan. On what they should report on. Another strat-
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
5egy is to use social media to spread misinfor- record for visitors, with 11.8 million people.
mation. With the help of fake accounts, In tourism, Taiwan’s government has suc-
social media increases the popularity of ceeded in reducing its dependence on main-
pro-Chinese politicians in Taiwan. For land China. Although the mainland Chinese
example, Han owes his rapid rise to hun- are still the largest group, with 2.7 million
dreds of thousands of fake users on Face- people in 2019, under Tsai’s predecessor,
book, inflating his popularity in fan groups. President Ma, there were still 4.1 million at
Taiwan’s democracy is probably the the peak of 2015, with 10.4 million visitors
world’s biggest victim of the “sharp power” in total. The situation is more difficult for
of the People’s Republic, a form of destruc- exports: Mainland China and Hong Kong
tive power that seeks to undermine the remain by far the largest export markets for
attractiveness and legitimacy of a political the island state, with a combined export
system. The aim is to weaken the Taiwanese share of around 40 percent, far ahead of the
government and divide Taiwanese society United States (12 percent) and Japan (7 per-
through misinformation, propaganda, cent). This share of around 40 percent has
threats, and subversion. remained largely stable for 15 years. It will
take a lot of patience and determination to
reduce Taiwan’s close economic ties with
Taiwan Strengthens mainland China.
Its Own Resilience After all, Taiwan’s government is count-
ing on intensive relations with other devel-
In response to growing pressure from main- oped democracies, first and foremost with
land China, the government of Tsai has the United States, but also with Japan and
strengthened Taiwan’s resilience. Planned the EU. Both sides consider relations be-
defense spending for 2020 has been raised tween the United States and Taiwan to be
to $13.1 billion, compared to $10.7 billion very good. For example, the United States
in 2015. The development and construction passed the “Taiwan Travel Act” in 2018,
of its own submarines is boosting the which allows meetings at the government
domestic defense industry. level. Both houses of Congress unanimously
The parliament has passed several laws adopted the law, a signal of the cross-party
against mainland Chinese influence on and visible support Taiwan enjoys in the
media and politics, the last measure being United States. In the same year, the United
the “Anti-Infiltration Law” at the end of States opened a new large building in
December 2019. Among other things, these Taipei for its unofficial representation, the
laws prohibit Taiwanese parties from ac- American Institute.
cepting money from the People’s Republic The United States is sending warships
and tighten restrictions on retired officials through the Taiwan Strait more frequently
and soldiers from participating in CCP than in the past and regularly sells weapons
activities on the Chinese mainland. to Taiwan. The last major package, agreed
The Tsai government is also working in 2019, provides for the sale of 66 F-16
to reduce economic dependence on main- fighter aircraft of the latest generation.
land China. To this end, it has initiated the In two high-profile speeches on US policy
“New Southbound Policy,” which aims to toward China, delivered in October 2018
strengthen economic, cultural, and social and 2019, respectively, US Vice President
relations with South and Southeast Asia. Mike Pence made positive statements about
For example, the inhabitants of many of Taiwan; both times he said, “America will
these states can now enter Taiwan without always believe that Taiwan’s embrace of
a visa, which has led to an increase in tour- democracy shows a better path for all the
ism from these regions. In addition, more Chinese people.”
and more travelers are coming from Japan US policy is to maintain the status quo in
and South Korea. In 2019, Taiwan set a new the Taiwan Strait. They are signaling to the
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
6People’s Republic that they are supporting policy has weakened the KMT. The party’s
Taiwan in order to prevent mainland mili- problem is that it wants to continue the poli-
tary actions against the island. If the pres- cies of President Ma (2008–2016). In doing
sure of the People’s Republic on Taiwan so, it overlooks the fact that the People’s
increases further, the United States will Republic is not the same today as it was 10
probably be forced to make an even stronger years ago, but rather that it is more aggres-
commitment to defend the island state if sive and demanding toward Taiwan while
it wants to prevent military actions by the becoming more repressive at home. More-
People’s Republic. over, the KMT has hardly any voters under
Taiwan’s relations with Japan and the EU the age of 40 because they do not identify
have also developed in a positive manner with the Republic of China and usually see
during Tsai’s first term of office. Japan has themselves exclusively as Taiwanese. The
traditionally maintained close relations comparatively solid performance of the
with the DPP. The EU regards the human KMT in the parliamentary elections shows,
rights situation in Taiwan as being exem- however, that with suitable – young –
plary in Asia and bases bilateral relations personnel and new ideas, the party can
on shared values and good economic become competitive again.
relations. Initial reactions from the People’s Repub-
lic indicate that it is continuing its policy
of putting pressure on Taiwan and sticking
Threat to Taiwan Increases to the “one country, two systems” formula.
The repression by the CCP in Tibet, Xin-
For President Tsai’s second term of office, a jiang, and Hong Kong demonstrates its lack
continuation of her policy of the past four of ability to compromise and grant political
years is expected. freedom. In current Chinese politics, it is
As far as relations with mainland China also less risky for politicians to adopt a
are concerned, much depends on the gov- tough and nationalistic stance than to be
ernment in Beijing. One option would be willing to compromise and be open to new
for the People’s Republic to maintain, or ideas and concepts. Accordingly, the People’s
even increase, the pressure on Taiwan, and Republic will continue to try to infiltrate
a second option would be for it to change Taiwan’s democracy and spread misinfor-
its policy on Taiwan in favor of more dia- mation as well as increase military and
logue and compromise. This second pos- diplomatic pressure.
sibility seems unlikely at present. It would,
however, be the prerequisite for peaceful
unification, which is the publicly expressed EU: Safeguarding the Status
goal of the government in Beijing. Quo and Supporting Taiwan’s
In her speech on election evening in Democracy
2020, President Tsai again emphasized her
willingness to engage in dialogue and The most recent strategy paper on EU–
understanding with the mainland. The China relations of March 2019 characterizes
basis must be a commitment to peace and bilateral relations in this way: cooperation,
the renunciation of threats, a dialogue based balancing mutual interests, competition,
on mutual respect and parity, and respect and rivalry in terms of values and political
for the democratic will of the Taiwanese. systems. Taiwan only appears in a footnote.
The Taiwanese must be allowed to decide Following on from the EU Strategy Paper of
on their own future in a democratic process. 2016, the Union is basing its relations with
The harsh attitude of the People’s Repub- Taiwan on the “One China Policy,” the fur-
lic over the last four years has been coun- ther development of relations with Taiwan
terproductive and has further alienated on the basis of shared values, and peace in
Taiwan from the mainland. Thus, Beijing’s the Taiwan Strait.
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
7The Union’s most recent strategy paper plained by Chinese media as being the
illustrates the tensions in relations in which result of the fraud and dirty tricks of the
it finds itself with the People’s Republic. DPP and the influence of the United States,
On the one hand, China is an economic and without giving any facts or evidence. Tai-
political partner in trade and investment wan’s democracy is only “a coat under
as well as the solution for global problems which the forces of Taiwanese independ-
such as climate protection; on the other ence hide,” as a professor from the People’s
hand, the People’s Republic is a rival that Republic said at a recent conference in
propagates an authoritarian model of gov- Shanghai. Just as with the situation in Hong
ernment and undermines global norms Kong, Beijing cannot imagine that people
© Stiftung Wissenschaft such as human rights. want to live in freedom.
und Politik, 2020 European policy toward Taiwan also finds
All rights reserved itself in this area of tension. The island
state shares European values of democracy
This Comment reflects
and human rights. As with the support for
the author’s views.
human rights defenders in mainland China
The online version of and Hong Kong or taking action concerning
this publication contains the repression of people in Xinjiang and
functioning links to other Tibet, the EU must consider what it values
SWP texts and other relevant
in its relations with Taiwan in promoting
sources.
democracy and human rights. The planned
SWP Comments are subject EU–China summit in Germany in Septem-
to internal peer review, fact- ber 2020 is an appropriate time for such a
checking and copy-editing. discussion on a “Taiwan strategy.”
For further information on In addition, EU member states should
our quality control pro-
engage more with the United States and
cedures, please visit the SWP
website: https://www.swp- Japan on how to maintain peace and sta-
berlin.org/en/about-swp/ bility in the Taiwan Strait and how the
quality-management-for- world’s democracies can better support one
swp-publications/ of their own.
There are many opportunities for co-
SWP
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
operation with Taiwan below the level of
Politik formal state recognition from which both
German Institute for sides could benefit and which can be in-
International and tensified: in technology and science, the
Security Affairs energy revolution, and the promotion of
human rights. In Germany and Europe,
Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4
10719 Berlin Taiwan is not sufficiently understood as
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 the valuable partner it is – as a successful
Fax +49 30 880 07-100 democracy and a technologically innovative
www.swp-berlin.org economy. Its IT industry, for example, is
swp@swp-berlin.org
one of the world’s most advanced.
ISSN 1861-1761
At the same time, the EU could offer to
doi: 10.18449/2020C07 organize dialogues and conferences involv-
ing itself, mainland China, and Taiwan.
(English version of These dialogues should, among other things,
SWP-Aktuell 5/2020) try to make mainland China more under-
standing of Taiwan’s democracy and values.
Tsai’s election victory, for example, is ex-
Dr Frédéric Krumbein is Heinrich Heine Visiting Professor at Tel Aviv University.
SWP Comment 7
February 2020
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