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SURGE Highlights Navy Arctic Strategy Climate & Energy Executive Orders Energy Security Lessons Nord Stream 2 Report Ambassador Richard Morningstar Battery Reactivity ENERGY ACADEMIC GROUP QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER SPRING 2021 Russia’s Dangerous Game: Mutually Assured Darkness? By Lawrence M. Walzer Faculty Associate-Research, Energy Academic Group Increasingly, the United States is confronted with a strategic While many Americans were distracted with other headlines environment of intense Great Power in the fall and early winter closing out 2020, there were Competition and persistent hybrid threats where the energy sector can be several reports of alleged Russian hacking into all levels of used to leverage governments politically U.S. energy infrastructure and systems including into the through potential energy market Department of Energy. manipulation or—more dangerously— via targeted attacks on energy infrastructure. While there are concerns the first reported blackouts caused antics go far beyond Ukraine and the regarding China, Iran, North Korea, and by a cyberattack in 2015. Russia’s previous incursions in Georgia, as some non-state actors, Russia remains deliberate hybrid campaign led to its Russia aggressively seeks to return a a very prominent hybrid threat actor illegal occupation of Crimea making perceived sphere of influence into its on many fronts and in many regions— the Kremlin an international pariah in fold. Volunteers are few. some far away, others closer to home. the West and beyond. Nonetheless, Much closer to home, cyberattacks As we seemingly enter a new era of its advancement of the Nord Stream into our election apparatus and energy potential Mutually Assured Darkness, 2 pipeline both furthers its energy infrastructure—reportedly at the hands the recent blackouts in Texas and other influence in Western Europe and of the most sophisticated Russian- areas highlight that it is more than just attempts to weaken Ukraine in order directed hackers—paint a stark picture the lights that go out. to punish Kyiv for its steadfast goals of our vulnerabilities, which Russia Most will recall Russia’s aggression to escape Moscow’s yoke and align and attacks on Ukraine, which led to with the liberal West. Russia’s hardball Continued on page 2 S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 1
Continued from page 1 energy infrastructure and systems Combating Hybrid Threats, which will including into the Department of Energy. focus initial research efforts on Russia, undoubtedly seeks to exploit in order Deterring our adversaries from energy, and naturally, hybrid threats in to achieve its objectives of returning to conducting hybrid attacks will the maritime domain. We must do far great power status and broadening its take a whole of government and more than keep the lights on. scope and influence on an international comprehensive approach in partnership scale. While many Americans were with the private sector, and also a LEARN MORE distracted with other headlines in the fall and early winter closing out 2020, there were several reports of alleged determined team effort with our allies and other partners. The Naval Email Larry Walzer at lmwalzer1@nps.edu Postgraduate School will do its part Russian hacking into all levels of U.S. with its recently approved Center on Defense Energy Certificate Awardees Dr. Dan Nussbaum and the Energy Academic Group (EAG) congratulate Cohort III students for completing the Defense Energy Certificate, and also acknowledge their hard work and dedication to the program. Upon conclusion of the winter quarter, we conferred certificates to 24 students. Feedback from these talented students indicates a NPS's academic worth-while and “eye-opening” programs experience, in Defense with Energy a practical are supplemented application to address DoDby aneeds. seminar series which provides a forum for leading voices within the field, practitioners, EAG’s Defense Energy Certificate program is a graduate-level accredited certificate program and other consisting Defense Energy of four influencers. These professionals give presentations, engage in brown bag courses, offered via Distributed Learning on a pace of one course per quarter for four consecutive quarters. discussions, and The program is open tofacilitate informal all federal civiliangatherings employeesthat andencourage active dutyDefense military. Energy faculty It provides thoseand students working to discourse military and civilian employeesover current issues the opportunity in Defense to gain Energy, supplementing an understanding of the complex classroom teaching issues facing with practical, the Operational and Installation Energyprofessional segments ofexperiences. the DoD. The Defense Energy Seminars Series is a permanent part of NPS's We are pleasedDefense to reportEnergy that Cohort IV began program, and athekeyprogram on 29 March to its real-world 2021 with a capacity-filled class of 30 relevance. students. Cohort Five is expected to begin on 28 March 2022 with an announcement scheduled for 1 October 2021. For more information, or to apply, email Kevin Maher at kjmaher@nps.edu. Giovanni Albanese (CIV) Clinton Gorman (CIV) Noe Nunez-Feliz (CIV) Directorate of Public Works, Public Works Department Naval Sea Systems Command, U.S. Army Garrison, Italy Monterey, CA Washington Navy Yard Washington, D.C. Jeannie Belew (CIV) Geoffry Graves (CIV) Director of Public Works Norfolk Naval Shipyard James Olden (CIV) Fort Leonard Wood, MO Portsmouth, VA Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (SAF/IEN), Pentagon Marisol Bonnet-Acosta (CIV) David Kiel (CIV) Washington, D.C. Department of Energy Naval Surface Warfare Center, Washington, D.C. Dahlgren Division Benito Perez (CIV) Dahlgren, VA Installation Management Command Philip Criswell (CIV) Fort Bliss Garrison Naval Surface Warfare Center, Frank Kim, CDR, USN Fort Bliss, TX Philadelphia Division Commander, Logistics Group Philadelphia, PA Western Pacific Jesse Rougeux (CIV) Sembawang, Singapore Program Executive Office Ships, Michael Davis, COL, USA Washington Navy Yard North Atlantic Treaty Joshua Lappen (CIV) Washington, D.C. Organization School Naval Surface Warfare Center, Oberammergau, Germany Carderock Division Matthew Suess (CIV) West Bethesda, MD Public Works Department Zachary Eberbach (CIV) Monterey, CA Installation Management Command, Sara Lohmann (CIV) U.S. Army Garrison Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Daniel Temple (CIV) Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany Division, Washington Navy Yard Energy Academic Group, Naval Washington, D.C. Postgraduate School Joshua Edwards (CIV) Monterey, CA Department of Public Works William Mcshane (CIV) U.S. Army Garrison, Italy Department of Energy Benny Tomlinson (CIV) Washington, D.C. Installation Management Command Toniann Fisher (CIV) Fort Bliss Garrison Office of the Deputy Assistance Matthew Munroe, Maj, USMC Fort Bliss, TX Secretary of Defense for Environment 6th Engineer Support Battalion and Energy Resilience, Pentagon Battle Creek, MI Gregory Vallery (CIV) Washington, D.C. Installation Management Command Garmisch, Germany
FROM THE CHAIR Dan Nussbaum, Chair of the Energy Academic Group In this article I address three senior officials in the Pentagon are most recent NDAA speaks directly issues: climate change concerns of clear implementations of these new to this fact, and it imposes sanctions the new administration; geopolitical policies. Mr. Bryan has been appointed on some participants in the implications of a natural gas pipeline; as the Senior Advisor to the SECDEF on program. You can read about some and a recent development in climate change; he was a former DASN of the EU-U.S.-Russia geopolitical assessing issues in hybrid warfare. for operational energy. Mr. Kidd is tensions of NS2 in “Nord Stream 2: Every new administration comes now the DASD (Environment & Energy Implications and Outcomes for U.S.- with its own priorities. For example, Resilience), with a portfolio covering German Relations and the NATO the Biden administration has “enabling resilience and cyber-secure Alliance “, here. reintroduced climate change as an energy for weapon systems and Finally for this article, I want to aspect of National Security, reviving installations, oversight of programs mention the establishment of a new, what has been an in-and-out topic related to climate change, compliance interdisciplinary research center at ever since the 1990s when the U.S. with environmental laws, prevention NPS that was initiated by the Energy Naval War College issued Global of pollution, management of natural Academic Group, the Center on Climate Change Implications for and cultural resources, and cleanup of Combating Hybrid Threats (CCHT). In the United States, which found that contaminated sites, as well as energy an era of Great Power Competition, “Naval operations in the coming half resilience, risk, and performance.” we face increased challenges from century may be drastically affected He was formerly a Deputy Assistant hybrid threats as adversaries seek by the impact of global climate Secretary within the Army Secretariat. to operate in the “gray zone” which change.” Later, in October 2003, I know them both as dedicated, falls short of full war, is less costly, the National Defense University articulate and committed civil servants, and yet is an increasingly effective published a report stating that and look forward to working with them space to conduct hybrid operations “global warming could have a chilling and their offices. and campaigns. The ongoing effect on the military.” In 2018, the The worldwide flows of natural gas challenges from Russia, China, Iran, National Defense Authorization Act are a hard-to-overestimate dimension North Korea, and non-state actors (NDAA) addressed the vulnerabilities of international politics and economics, pertaining to hybrid threats require to military installations over the and, as such, they play an important greater interdisciplinary attention. next two decades and warned that role in great power competition. Two The Center will have three pillars, rising temperatures, droughts, recent developments in this sphere are namely research, education, and and famines might lead to more noteworthy: the recently completed outreach, and will work closely with failed states―which are “breeding Southern Gas Corridor, and the almost other departments and centers on grounds of extremist and terrorist completed Nord Stream 2 (NS2) the NPS campus such as the Center organizations.” Now, President natural gas pipeline. The Southern Gas for Infrastructure Defense and the Biden’s Executive Order (EO) Corridor routes natural gas from the Cyber Academic Group. If you’re establishes climate considerations Caspian to Europe, and one of its main interested in this topic, please do as an essential element of U.S. goals is to reduce Europe's dependency not hesitate to reach out to me. foreign policy and national security. on Russian gas by diversifying Europe’s The EO commissions a “National energy sources. NS2 will double CONTACT Intelligence Estimate on the security implications of climate change,” and the capacity of the existing, parallel undersea route (NS1) from Russian DR. DAN NUSSBAUM Email danussba@nps.edu it directs DoD to “develop plans fields to Germany (and then onwards or call 831-656-2387 to adapt to a warming world.” The to get to Europe). There is some recent announcements of Mr. Joe concern that NS2 increases Europe’s Bryan and Mr. Richard Kidd as dependence on Russia. In fact, the
ENERGY POLICY Navy Releases Strategic Blueprint for the Arctic By Kristen Fletcher, Faculty Associate-Research, Energy Academic Group The crew of the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine, USS Connecticut (SSN 22) during Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Michael B. Zingaro) On January 5, the Navy released a Blue Arctic, its “strategic blueprint” "Without sustained American naval presence and for the Arctic region in preparation for an increasingly accessible and partnerships in the Arctic region, peace and prosperity navigable region. The document will be increasingly challenged by Russia and China, whose defines the Arctic region as “stretching interests and values differ dramatically from ours." from Maine in the North Atlantic across the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait and Alaska in the North Pacific to claim as a “near-Arctic state,” the 2019 Guard capabilities, and synchronizing the southern tip of the Aleutian Island DoD Arctic Strategy disputes the claim. our Fleets.” Continuing joint military chain.” With the increased investments and exercises, like the submarine-focused The document follows the 2019 activities by China and Russia, the ICEX, are essential to evaluate and Strategic Outlook for the Arctic, Arctic document prioritizes the need for enhance American preparedness for Roadmap 2014–2030, and 2009 Navy sustained partnerships with allies within operations in the region. Arctic Roadmap. The blueprint opens by and outside the region. acknowledging the significant changes The blueprint shows prioritization in the region, especially increasingly of operating more assertively across the region “to prevail in day-to- LEARN MORE navigable Arctic waters as a result of rapidly melting sea ice. It states that a day competition as we protect the Download a Blue Arctic blue Arctic “will create new challenges homeland, keep Arctic seas free and from defense.gov and opportunities off our northern open, and deter coercive behavior and EAG Interns have prepared two shores. Without sustained American conventional aggression.” This includes Arctic reports available at: naval presence and partnerships in the improving the Navy’s exercises and fleet nps.edu/web/eag/intern-research Arctic region, peace and prosperity will synchronization above and underwater by “regionally posturing our forces, Email Kristen Fletcher at be increasingly challenged by Russia conducting exercises and operations, kristen.fletcher@nps.edu and China, whose interests and values differ dramatically from ours.” While the integrating Navy-Marine Corps-Coast blueprint does not reference China’s S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 4
ENERGY POLICY Executive Orders Create National Priorities on Climate and Energy By Kristen Fletcher, Faculty Associate-Research, Energy Academic Group President Joe Biden signs one of the 17 Executive Orders he signed on Inauguration Day Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) Between January 20 and February EO 14008 calls for the creation of its future National Defense Strategy. 4, President Biden issued three of a National Climate Task Force, DoD will analyze its own carbon Executive Orders (EOs) which prioritize which is chaired by National Climate footprint and spur the “development climate at the center of U.S. foreign Advisor Gina McCarthy, and includes of climate-friendly technologies at policy and national security and senior White House officials and scale.” Secretary Austin concluded instruct executive agencies regarding Cabinet-level leaders from 21 federal the statement with “There is little energy and climate actions. The agencies including the Secretaries about what the Department does to Executive Orders are: of Defense, Homeland Defense, and defend the American people that is Energy. The Task Force will facilitate not affected by climate change. It is a • Executive Order 13900 (January the organization and deployment national security issue, and we must 20, 2021): Protecting Public Health of a government-wide approach to treat it as such.” and the Environment and Restoring combat the climate crisis, including Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis leveraging federal procurement to decarbonize the electricity sector by • Executive Order 14008 (January 27, 2035 and replace government vehicles LEARN MORE 2021): Tackling the Climate Crisis at with zero-emission vehicles. EO 14008 The Climate Change EOs and Home and Abroad reboots the Presidential Memorandum Secretary Austin’s statement are • Executive Order 14013 (February on Climate Change and National available at: nps.edu/web/eag/ 4, 2021): Rebuilding and Enhancing Security of September 21, 2016, and energy-climate Programs to Resettle Refugees and calls for an analysis of the security All Executive Orders and Planning for the Impact of Climate implications of climate change to be Presidential Memoranda are Change on Migration incorporated into defense planning available at: along with deployment of clean energy whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ EO 13900 calls for conservation of 30% technologies and infrastructure. presidential-actions of federal land and oceans by 2030; Secretary of Defense Austin issued institutes a moratorium on new oil and a statement noting that the Pentagon Email Kristen Fletcher at gas leases on public lands and waters; will begin incorporating climate analysis kristen.fletcher@nps.edu and coincides with the United States into its war-gaming and analysis efforts reentering the Paris Climate Accord. as well as featuring the issue as part S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 5
ENERGY POLICY Lessons for the States on Energy Security By Brenda Shaffer, Faculty Associate-Research, Energy Academic Group Article originally published February 23, 2021 in RealClearEnergy and reprinted These lessons include the need for government involvement with permission. in energy security, the necessity of emergency-supply The recent extended electricity plans, the importance of diversifying fuel sources, the need outage in Texas has spurred a sharp for energy storage and dual-fuel power plants, and legal debate on how to prevent future protection of ownership and operations of critical energy disasters in Texas and other states. infrastructure. Much of this debate ignores the fact that few states have adopted a proactive approach to energy security. alone can’t provide it. Accordingly, U.S. particularly residential customers, will Instead, most have left energy security states need energy security policies. receive energy supplies. As the recent matters to market mechanisms and While market mechanisms and private bitter freeze loomed, Texas should have to Washington, neither of which can companies can play the dominant preemptively ordered such a shutdown. deliver on local needs. States would role in energy production, transit, and Instead, several days into the crisis, benefit from adopting energy security marketing, the state must stay involved energy-intensive industries in Texas, policies. In crafting these policies, in ensuring that mechanisms are in like gas-liquefaction plants, chose to they can learn from the tenets of place for energy security. shut down. Texas and many other U.S. international energy security policy Second, well-governed states states rely on market mechanisms to as practiced by many countries with develop and execute detailed direct such shutdowns, but the market smaller populations and GNP than emergency plans in case of disruptions mechanisms did not deliver. A simple medium and large U.S. states. of natural gas, liquid fuels, and emergency-response plan could have These lessons include the need for electricity supplies. Most NATO prevented the meltdown. government involvement in energy member countries, for instance, have Next, diverse fuel mixes enhance security, the necessity of emergency- energy emergency-supply plans. These security of energy supply. Following the supply plans, the importance of plans allow these governments to pre- Texas outage, interested parties sought diversifying fuel sources, the need emptively shut down energy-intensive, to blame specific energy sources such for energy storage and dual-fuel non-essential industries, such as as wind and natural gas for the failure. power plants, and legal protection of cement production, desalination plants, It’s a good thing that Texas’s electricity ownership and operations of critical and some manufacturing. is produced by multiple energy energy infrastructure. By doing so, governments can sources, but as foreign countries know, Lesson one is that energy security is prevent grid collapse and ensure that energy systems need back up and akin to national security, and markets those that need the supplies most, redundancies. Governments need to S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 6
mandate that natural gas companies ownership in U.S. energy infrastructure. equipped than the vast federal store backup supplies, not leave it to Most foreign countries enact laws to government to provide for local the companies’ discretion. protect their strategic infrastructure security of supply of energy. Market Israel, for instance, despite from being acquired by potential hostile mechanisms are not enough to get possessing, like Texas, vast natural actors. For instance, Lithuania in 2012 the job done. The public expects local gas resources in the ground, stores barred ownership of its energy and governments to ensure secure energy liquefied gas for emergency use. And other strategic national infrastructure supplies. When the lights go out, some of the electricity power plants by companies that do not share a citizens blame their states, not private should be dual-fuel, so that when gas “trans-Atlantic orientation,” in an effort companies or Washington. supplies are disrupted, they can easily to prevent Russian ownership of its transfer from one fuel type to another grids and ports. U.S. states need also LEARN MORE and keep generation going. The dual- fuel plants are less efficient, so the private market tends not to install to assess the risks from foreign actors and put legislation in place to protect essential energy infrastructure. Email Brenda Shaffer at eag_poc@nps.edu them. Again, it falls to governments Marketization of energy trade has to ensure some backup plants are had many worthwhile results, leading available when needed. Most Eastern to greater supplies and lower prices European nations possess dual- of many forms of energy. However, fuel power plants to offset potential U.S. states need to enact policies disruptions of Russian gas. that ensure the reliability of those While not connected to the Texas supplies, especially as most American supply outage, future disruptions could communities plan expanded use of be tied to foreign actors that acquire electricity. States are much better NEW REPORT Nord Stream 2: Implications and Outcomes for U.S.-German Relations and the NATO Alliance Resolving the areas of 2 will secure additional volumes NATO Alliance. Ultimately, careful contention between Germany from Russia. Ironically, this will diplomacy and compromise and the United States is of also increase Russia’s political and solutions from Washington and the utmost importance early in economic leverage over Ukraine as Berlin offer the best potential President Joe Biden’s term. One well as several Central and Eastern for ameliorating trans-Atlantic of these disputes is the ongoing European Allies dependent on relations during a fraught election disagreements on the Nord Russian gas. The U.S. has voiced year in Germany. Stream 2 undersea natural gas strong opposition to Nord Stream pipeline. This issue comes at 2, but Germany is determined to a difficult time as Berlin is in a proceed with its construction, precarious position regarding its further complicating efforts to LEARN MORE energy security outlook. To meet normalize relations between the Read the entire report economic and environmental two nations. This position paper on the EAG's website at obligations after the shutdown of provides three potential scenarios nps.edu/web/eag/news its nuclear power plants, Germany on Nord Stream 2, discussing will depend on steady imports the implications of each for U.S.- of natural gas; and Nord Stream German relations, as well as for the S U R G E W I N T E R 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 7
ENERGY OUTREACH Interview with Ambassador Richard Morningstar By Brenda Shaffer, Faculty Associate – Research, Energy Academic Group Ambassador Richard Morningstar (retired), founding chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center In August 2020, the Energy we were thinking about and we really successful project.” This project brings Academic Group held an advanced wanted there to be a diversity of the first new gas volumes in decades energy security course for pipelines, not just pipelines going to Europe, versus pipeline projects that professionals in Azerbaijan, through Russia. We didn’t want to see just reroute existing gas supplies. Georgia and Turkey. The virtual pipelines going through Iran—but course was co-sponsored with ADA it was important that pipelines go University in Baku. One of the highlights west… We really wanted to emphasize of the course was an interview and ensure the sovereignty of the LEARN MORE with (retired) Ambassador Richard new states, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Watch the full interview at Morningstar, founding chairman of Central Asian countries.” In addition, nps.edu/web/eag/august-12-2020 the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy “What was important is that this was Center. Ambassador Morningstar held a a bipartisan policy. Republicans and Read the full interview at the number of positions over the last three Democrats both supported it. And atlanticcouncil.org decades leading major aspects of U.S. it’s been consistent since that time. Email Brenda Shaffer at international energy policy, including With all of the issues in the United eag_poc@nps.edu U.S. Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy States, all the fighting back and forth and U.S. Ambassador to the EU, and between Republicans and Democrats, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. His our Caspian policy has been fully interview captures lessons learned on consistent for 25 years. And I think U.S. international energy policy and is that’s been very important because it an important primary document for gave us credibility.” On the Southern students and researchers studying Gas Corridor natural gas project, which the intersection between U.S. foreign brings gas from the Caspian to Europe policy and U.S. international energy and which Morningstar worked over a policy, Caspian energy, and the politics decade to help establish, Morningstar of the South Caucasus. In addition remarked, “I think that the Southern Morningstar explained “At that time, Gas Corridor has been an incredibly S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 8
RESILIENCE CORNER The Four Horsemen of Infrastructure Vulnerability arise as a challenge to a system that by determining the probability it will be By Dan Eisenberg, PhD, causes assets and systems to fail. inoperable given normal conditions. Department of Operations Here, experts use consequence Reliability engineering focuses on Research, NPS models to estimate impacts brought updating poorly managed, out-of- by challenges. In contrast, threats also date, and faulty systems before they Resilience is a “new” term creeping arise from flaws within our systems. fail. Reliability is the language of into military directives, but what Here, bad design or poor management systems engineers and engineering does it mean and how do we use can cause systems to fail. Flaws can be professionals. it to guide decisions? Earlier in the managed without knowing the failures Resilience Corner, we described or consequences they may cause. Adversarial Analysis: Adversarial how achieving resilience means Taken together, these perspectives analysis deals with possible challenges improving the robustness, extensibility, allow us to organize a comprehensive to a system. While the likelihood restoration, and adaptation of military framework for vulnerability analysis. of an adversarial attack can only systems. However, improving resilience Specifically, perspectives relate to four be estimated with possibility, the is impossible without first knowing technical fields, each exemplifying one consequences of an adversarial attack system vulnerability. of the “four horsemen of infrastructure can be explicitly measured. Adversarial So, how do we identify vulnerability” that will come to your analysis is the language of military and vulnerabilities? My answer to this base to tell you that your energy security experts. question hinges on the idea that system is vulnerable. A comprehensive Safety Engineering: Safety deals vulnerabilities arise from how we model vulnerability analysis should consider with possible flaws in a system. the predictability and source of threats. each perspective prior to making Safety concerns itself with managing There are at least two ways to model recommendations on how to improve dangerous conditions and tries to threat predictability. Predictability resilience. identify protections and precautions can be modeled with probabilities Risk Analysis: Risk analysis identifies that prevent failures from occurring. representing the likelihood of a threat predictable challenges to a system. Safety is the language of safety (e.g., the return period for a flood). The likelihood of a risk is modeled with professionals and human factors. Predictability is also modeled with possibilities representing imagined probability and the consequences of events that are unlikely, but possible. system failure is explicitly measured. LEARN MORE In the military, we often consider possibilities through wargaming and Risk analysis is the language of the insurance industry and actuaries. Email Dan Eisenberg at daniel.eisenberg@nps.edu exercises to see how people respond to Reliability Engineering: Reliability ficticious situations. identifies predictable flaws in a system. There are also two ways to model The reliability of a system is informed the source of threats. Threats can S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 9
ENERGY RESEARCH COTS Microgrid Lab Operational at NPS By Brandon Naylor, Faculty Associate-Research, Energy Academic Group The microgrid is housed in a 20’ standard shipping container for easy to transport for future experiments in different testing environments. The Energy Academic Group at the the COTS components used in the as monitoring the voltage of individual Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) microgrid differ from what students battery cells. Demonstrating COTS has completed construction of might see in a forward deployed technologies in this microgrid lab may a small-scale microgrid using low operational environment, their pave the way for future exploration or cost commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) open architecture and component- adoption of COTS energy technologies parts. This microgrid facility will allow agnostic nature makes them ideal for at CONUS DoD installations. Until students to collect experimental student experimentation; the COTS then, the microgrid lab will serve as a data on the performance of different components used in the microgrid valuable educational tool for students technologies for renewable generation, are designed to interface with a wide studying power electronics at NPS. energy storage, and power distribution. variety of hardware, so students will be The microgrid is housed in a 20’ able to integrate new components such LEARN MORE standard shipping container which makes the system easy to transport for future experiments in different as hydrogen or compressed air energy storage. Work is ongoing to improve the data collection capabilities of the Email Brandon Naylor at blnaylor@nps.edu testing environments. Although microgrid for adavanced features such Operational Energy Research Available on Calhoun Allreserved Space NPS resident students Energy for our Operation write aTheses thesisplug or capstone project report as part of their curricular requirements. Many theses are unclassified and accessible on Calhoun—the Naval Postgraduate School's digital repository for research materials and institutional publications created by the NPS community. To access theses which involve operational energy, please use the following link. New theses are added every quarter. View operational energy theses available on Calhoun: https://calhoun.nps.edu/ S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 10
ENERGY RESEARCH Battery Reactivity, a Key Consideration By Eric Hahn, Faculty Associate – Research, Energy Academic Group Energy storage is an integral component of an increasingly Spent Li-ion batteries add to hazardous waste streams electrified modern battlefield. This will result in a greater need generated by the force. The risks and costs associated for light-weight yet energy-dense with this waste stream could be reduced or potentially storage systems. The increasing eliminated with implementation of deactivation demand for these systems has technology. resulted in the deployment of lithium ion (Li-ion) battery technologies across the force. materials recycling describes it as Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), The requirement to enable and follows: “Li-ion battery reactivity can OnTo Technology LLC (a DLA Small protect the force on the modern lead to explosion, even with state-of- Business Innovation Research battlefield, as well as minimize the-art recycling practices. To show Contractor), and the Energy risks of collateral damage, places a the risk of fire and energy release with Academic Group are collaborating premium on efficient and effective batteries, a single small cell can reach on concept stage exploratory study life cycle management of Li-ion over 600˚C and melt aluminum when in the southwest region to identify battery technology. cut with a shearing action, like what and prioritize specific research Key life cycle considerations occurs in an industrial shredder.” Spent development locations, activities of Li-ion battery systems Li-ion batteries add to hazardous and transition needs to enable involve efficient and effective waste streams generated by the implementation of new battery management of not only their force. The risks and costs associated deactivation technology. energy storage benefits, but with this waste stream could be also their hazardous energy reduced or potentially eliminated risks. Steve Sloop, a technology LEARN MORE developer focused on battery with implementation of deactivation technology. Email Eric Hahn at ehahn1@nps.edu S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L 11
Calendar of Events JUNE June 29–July 2 Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (CEIP) Analysis Workshop Baku, Azerbaijan Interested in Energy-related Thesis Research? Since 2013, NPS and the EAG supported a plethora of student thesis research in the area of energy. Publicly viewable student theses can be searched from the Resources page of the EAG website at nps.edu/web/eag/resources. The EAG’s extensive resources, intellectual capital, and connections with multi-disciplinary faculty and energy professionals provide students enhanced support for energy-related research. If interested in energy research, please reach out to the EAG team! Contribute to an issue of Surge If you would like to Connect with the Energy Academic Group contribute an article or The Energy Academic Group is located in Room 101A, Spanagel Hall on have your research/work the NPS campus in Monterey, California. A wide range of NPS faculty are published in the Surge affiliated with the energy program, actively participate in energy graduate newsletter, please contact education, energy executive education, and energy research. For questions, Lois Hazard via email at please contact one of the principal EAG faculty members: lkhazard@nps.edu. CHAIR LCDR USN (Ret) Dr. Brenda Shaffer Dr. Daniel Nussbaum Eric Hahn eag_poc@nps.edu Surge is published quarterly by danussba@nps.edu ehahn1@nps.edu the Energy Academic Group at LtCol USMC (Ret) 831-656-2387 Tahmina Karimova Dan Temple the Naval Postgraduate School. ASSOCIATE CHAIR ttkarimo@nps.edu daniel.temple@nps.edu 831-656-6405 Lois Hazard Alan Howard LtCol USMC (Ret) Editor-In-Chief arhoward@nps.edu Brandon Naylor Lawrence Walzer 831-656-3855 blnaylor@nps.edu lmwalzer1@nps.edu Frank Chezem 831-656-1986 831-656-3777 Art Direction and FACULTY Graphic Design Kristen Fletcher CDR USN (Ret) Jacob Wigal kristen.fletcher@nps.edu Kevin Maher jacob.wigal@nps.edu 831-656-6195 kjmaher@nps.edu 831-656-1897 831-656-2691 EAG WEBSITE FOLLOW EAG ON LINKEDIN nps.edu/energy linkedin.com/company/energy-academic-group The views and perspectives herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Navy (or Marine Corps).
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