Sri Lanka: Equity Market Roundup February 2021 - A Sentiment-driven Drop; Cheap Valuations Heading Into March - CSE

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Sri Lanka: Equity Market Roundup February 2021 - A Sentiment-driven Drop; Cheap Valuations Heading Into March - CSE
Sri Lanka: Equity Market Roundup
        February 2021
        A Sentiment-driven Drop; Cheap
        Valuations Heading Into March

February 2021

ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH
KEY TAKEAWAYS - FEBRUARY 2021

➢ Colombo All Share Price Index (ASPI) fell 13.7% while the S&P SL 20 fell 15.6% during the month.
➢ February losses carved into the January gains ending at +10.4% YTD. As a result, the ASPI fell back from
  being the top performing market in January to the 7th-ranked market globally YTD.
➢ Foreign exists continued in February, amounting to LKR 4.96bn, led by SAMP
➢ All sectors see a MoM decline in performance

➢ TTM market P/E fell to 11.1x as of the 25th of February (22.3% discount to its 10-year historic average of
  14.4x) on the back of 1) A weakening of the ASPI (numerator) and, 2) A pickup in TTM earnings with the 4Q
  CY20 earnings release (denominator).

➢ As noted in our previous update, the TTM P/E as of January (19.8x) seemed elevated on the back of the
  abnormally low earnings seen in the TTM period due to the pandemic

➢ Current P/B fell to 0.9x (1.3x end January), a 46.6% discount to the 10-year historic average of 1.7x

➢ As of 25th February, the ASPI traded at a 11.2x forward P/E 2021E, falling closer to the mid-band on a
  sentiment-driven drop; we see no changes to the earnings outlook and believe the low interest rate
  environment warrants further upside

➢ Earnings review 4Q CY20 – As expected, the Manufacturing sector led performance with robust earnings
  from both Domestic and Export companies; The Leisure sector remained the hardest hit as it continues to
  recover from the pandemic

➢ Asia securities portfolio returned 6.9% YTD vs. 10.4% ASPI YTD

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited

                                                                                                                     01
ASPI REMAINS IN THE TOP 10 RANKED PERFORMERS
         YTD, DESPITE WEAKENING IN FEBRUARY

A sentiment-driven weakening in February carved into the January gains…                                                             …as the ASPI ranked 7th on YTD performance
                   -25.4%              +12.6%             +16.2%              +13.2%             +10.4%                                 MSE Top 20 Index                                             74.8
Index                                                                                                               Index
10,000                                                                                                             4,000             GSE Composite Index                     13.5

                                                                                                                                                            Top Five
                                                                                                                                    ADX GENERAL INDEX                      12.3
 9,000
                                                                                                                   3,500        FTSE/JSE AFRICA ALL SHR                    11.3
 8,000
                                                                                                                                            SOFIX INDEX                    10.7
 7,000                                                                                                             3,000
                                                                                                                              SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH                     10.4         7th Ranked YTD
 6,000                                                                                                             2,500
                                                                                                                                   S&P/NZX 50 Index Gross -6.6

                                                                                                                                                                           Worst Five
                                                                                                                                        S&P NZX All Index -6.7
 5,000
                                                                                                                   2,000     MALTA STOCK EXCHANGE IND -7.1
 4,000
                                                                                                                                 BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX -7.6
 3,000                                                                                                          1,500                   S&P/NZX 20 Index -7.8
      Jan-20                 Mar-20               Jun-20              Sep-20               Dec-20          Feb-21
                                                                                                                                                           -20         0    20           40    60    80
                                     ASPI (LHS)                      S&P SL20 (RHS)

    • The ASPI fell 1,192 points in February, to close 13.7% lower MoM
    • S&P SL20 fell 15.6% in February (-548 points)
    • ASPI ranked 7th amongst top performing indices YTD globally, falling from its top performer status at the end of January

        Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities
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                                                                                                                                                                                                     02
SRI LANKA EQUITY | MONTHLY REVIEW - FEBRUARY

TOP 5 TRADED                                                                      SECTOR PERFORMANCE                                                                       GAINERS / LOSERS

                                                                                                                                                                           TICKER          25-Feb      29-Jan      Δ%
                   VAL                       CMP                                                                                       25-Feb    29-Jan         Δ%
 TICKER                                                            Δ%                              SECTOR                              25-Feb    29-Jan
                 (LKR mn)                   (LKR)                                                                                                                          SLNDN            3,000       1,812       +65.5
                                                                                     Food & Staples Retailing                            1,380     1,434          -3.8     CALFN            59.70       50.00       +19.4
BIL.N                  22,558                       5.80             -13.4
                                                                                     Telecommunication                                    9,71     1,015          -4.4     AGALN            30.20       27.30       +10.6
LOLC.N                    9,166                365.00                -28.8                                                                                                 ATLLN             9.50           8.70        +9.2
                                                                                     Insurance                                           1,399     1,468          -4.7
EXPO.N                    7,145                  46.50                 -7.9                                                                                                KFPN             156.0      147.50           +5.8
                                                                                     F&B and Tobacco                                      978      1,092         -10.5     NIFL.N           70.10      121.75       -42.4
SAMP.N                    5,432                155.75                -22.7           Banks                                                633           742      -14.8     CIT.N            113.0      197.25       -42.7
RCL.N                     5,208                285.50                -28.4           Capital Goods                                       1,184     1,436         -17.5     ASPH.N            0.40           0.70    -42.9
                                                                                                                                                                           SEMB.X            0.30           0.60    -50.0
                                                                                                                                                                           SEMB.N            0.60           1.30    -53.8
PERFORMANCE OF TOP 10 S&P STOCKS

TICKER                         Market Cap (LKR                       Market Cap (USD                           Val Traded                  % of total
                                                                                                                                                              High (LKR)    Low (LKR) Close (LKR)               Δ (%)
                                     mn)                                   mn)                                 (LKR mn)                    turnover
JKH.N                                             200,899                                   1,033                              4,234                    4.3       171.75        148.00          152.25              -8.8
LOLC.N                                            173,448                                       891                            9,166                    9.4       545.00        300.00          365.00             -28.8
DIAL.N                                            103,807                                       534                             398                     0.4        13.10           11.90            12.70           0.0
COMB.N                                              97,588                                      502                            1,671                    1.7       100.00           80.00            88.80          -10.9
DIST.N                                              97,060                                      499                              76                     0.1        23.50           19.20            21.10           -8.3
EXPO.N                                              90,904                                      467                            7,145                    7.3        56.40           38.40            46.50           -7.9
SAMP.N                                              59,412                                      305                            5,432                    5.6       210.00        145.50          155.75             -22.7
MELS.N                                              58,386                                      300                             714                     0.7        67.00           42.10            50.10          -24.9
HNB.N                                               54,880                                      282                            1,088                    1.1       159.75        125.25          133.75             -14.1
HHL.N                                               48,310                                      248                            1,621                    1.7        96.60           80.00            81.00          -16.1

          STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                        03
FOREIGN OUTFLOWS CONTINUED IN FEBRUARY, LED BY
    SAMP

Heavy selling by foreign investors continued in the month of February…                                                                     …with SAMP leading the outflows

LKR mn
                                                                                                                        HAYC.N                                                        1,124
100.00
      -                                                                                                                 HAYL.N                                                        1,083
(100.00)
                                                                                                                        LALU.N                                                  462
(200.00)
(300.00)                                                                                                                DIPD.N                                            167

(400.00)
                                                                                                                         JKH.N                                    (287)
(500.00)
                                                                                                                         RCL.N                                    (309)
(600.00)
(700.00)                                                                                                                 SUN.N                         (937)
(800.00)                                                                                                                         (2,505)
      01-Feb-21                07-Feb-21               13-Feb-21                19-Feb-21                25-Feb-21      SAMP.N

                                                                                                                             (2,600)         (1,600)              (600)   400
                                                                                                                                                               LKR mn

   • Macro concerns, specifically around foreign debt repayment outlook and ongoing UNHRC discussions continues to drive foreign
     outflows
   • A credit rating upgrade in 2021 will be a key catalyst to foreign inflows; the valuation advantage of the CSE would make it
     compelling
   Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities
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                                                                                                                                                                                         04
TTM MARKET P/E FALLS SHARPLY ON PRICE DROP &
  NORMALISING EARNINGS; P/B STILL AT A DISCOUNT

  Market P/E remains high due to abnormally low TTM EPS…                                                                               …however, current P/B remains at a discount
(x)                                                                                                                        (x)
36.0                                                                                                                       4.5
                                                                                                                           4.0
31.0
                                                                                                                           3.5
26.0                                                                                                                       3.0
                                                                                                                           2.5
21.0
                                                                                                                           2.0
16.0                                                                                                                       1.5
                                                                                                                           1.0                                                            0.9x
11.0
                                                                                                                           0.5
                                                                                                                   11.1x
 6.0                                                                                                                         -
    Jan-09            Jan-11           Jan-13            Jan-15           Jan-17            Jan-19           Jan-21           Jan-09    Jan-11   Jan-13   Jan-15   Jan-17   Jan-19    Jan-21

                                              *
                             ASPI - TTM PE (LHS)                                 10Y PE average                                             ASPI - PB (RHS)          10Y PB average

  •    According to Bloomberg, TTM market ASPI P/E stood at 11.1x as of the 25th of February, falling below its 10-year historic average of 14.4x
  •    Current P/E fell from 19.8x as of end of January, due to 1) A weakening of the ASPI (numerator) and, 2) A pickup in earnings with the 4Q CY20 earnings
       releases (denominator).
  •    As noted in our previous update, the TTM P/E as of January seemed elevated due to the abnormally low earnings seen in the TTM period
  •    Current P/B stood at 0.9x (1.3x end January), remaining at a 46.6% discount to the 10-year historic average of 1.7x
  Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities
  STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
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                                                                                                                                                                                           05
THE SENTIMENT-DRIVE DROP PUSHES FWD P/E CLOSER TO
    THE MID-BAND AS EARNINGS OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONG
ASPI.
                                                                                                                                                     ASPI - 7,476
12,000
                                                                                                                                                 FWD P/E - 11.2x 2021E)

10,000

 8,000

 6,000

 4,000

 2,000

       -
           Jan-12                 Jan-13                   Jan-14                    Jan-15                   Jan-16       Jan-17     Jan-18    Jan-19     Jan-20         Jan-21

                                                                          4x                7x               10x         14x    18x      ASPI

   •       As of 25th February, the ASPI traded at 11.2x forward P/E 2021E (12.7x Fwd P/E as of end January)
   •       We see February’s weakening as a sentiment-driven one, and see no changes to the fundamentals and earnings outlook of companies
   •       We see further room for upside from this point due to: 1) Continued drive towards equities in a historically low interest rate environment, 2) Strong recovery
           in corporate earnings in 2021 and 3) High likelihood of new listings in 2021
    Source: Bloomberg, Asia Securities
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                                                                                                                                                                                   06
ALL SECTORS SEE A MoM DECLINE IN FEBRUARY
      PERFORMANCE

(%)
             +1,105 %
 250

200

150

100

 50

  -

(50)
                Transportation

                                 Materials

                                             Automobiles & Components

                                                                        Diversified Financial

                                                                                                Capital Goods

                                                                                                                Retailing

                                                                                                                            Energy

                                                                                                                                     Consumer Durables

                                                                                                                                                           Healthcare Equipment & Services

                                                                                                                                                                                               Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Household & Personal Products

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Food & Staples Retailing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Food, Beverage & Tobacco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commercial & Proffessional Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Telecommunication Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Consumer Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Real Estate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Insurance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Banks
                                                                                                                                                         YoY                                 YTD           MoM

      Source: CSE, Asia Securities | Follow link for GICS company classification under each sector - Link
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           07
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW

        .                             EPS (LKR)                                       Growth
                                                                                                                                                      Sector Earnings Commentary
                               4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20                             QoQ %  YoY %

CONGLOMERATES
HHL                                  1.64             2.16             2.29               6.2            40.1          -     The Conglomerates coverage earnings declined 12.0% YoY overall (+13.8% QoQ)
JKH                                  1.82             0.52             0.75              45.5           -58.8
                                                                                                                       -     HEMS benefitted from its large exposure to the FMCG and Healthcare segments
Total                                3.45             2.67             3.04              13.7           -12.0
                                                                                                                             during the quarter, with majority of the portfolio classified as essentials

                                                                                                                       -     At JKH, lockdowns within the Western Province impacted the Consumer segment.

                                                                                                                       -     JKH should see a notable upside to group earnings as revenue recognition from
                                                                                                                             Cinnamon Life commences in 4Q FY21E

BANKS
SAMP                               11.01             3.19             8.46             165.2            -23.2          -     Bank earnings have been strong in 4Q mainly due to trading gains (FX gains and
HNB                                12.52             6.71             8.77              30.7            -30.0                realised/unrealised investment gains)
COMB                                5.71             3.51             5.44              55.0             -4.7
                                                                                                                       -     Loan growth has been muted across the sector, but has picked up slightly from the
SEYB                                2.44             1.18             1.63              38.1            -33.2
                                                                                                                             weak 1H CY20 levels
NDB                                 8.29             6.78             5.63             -17.0            -32.1
SDB                                 2.79             4.85             2.10             -56.7            -24.7          -     Impairments are still elevated as most banks have raised the credit risk for several
Total                              42.76            26.22            32.03              22.2            -25.1                sectors under pressure; SAMP was an exception, as it had booked higher impairments
                                                                                                                             for these sectors early on in the cycle

                                                                                                                       -     The sector reported ~40-50% lower take up in moratoriums in the second round
                                                                                                                             compared to round 1

                                                                                                                       -     The lower tax rate of 24% was not applied in Q4, as the legislation was not gazetted…

                                                                                                                       -     …however, this should come into effect from 1Q CY21

        Source: Asia Securities, CSE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                 08
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW

     .                             EPS (LKR)                                       Growth
                                                                                                                                                    Sector Earnings Commentary
                            4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20                             QoQ %  YoY %

FMCG/R
CARG                             2.15             2.78             3.98              43.3             85.2          -     FMCG/R counters within our coverage witnessed a 0.4% YoY decline in earnings
CCS                              5.99             8.62             5.35             -37.9            -10.7                overall (-25.2% QoQ)
KFP                              1.95             3.01             3.13               4.0             60.5
                                                                                                                    -     Localised lockdowns affected retail operations; stores also witnessed lower footfall and
NEST                            13.34            18.93            12.85             -32.1             -3.7                higher basket values
CTC                             21.36            26.33            19.29             -26.7             -9.7
Total                           44.79            59.67            44.60             -25.2             -0.4          -     FMCG demand recovered going into the festive season with take-home products
                                                                                                                          outperforming impulse products

                                                                                                                    -     Panic buying in 3Q CY20 and lower income levels affected cigarette volumes during
                                                                                                                          the quarter

                                                                                                                    -     We expect these trends to normalise with the gradual containment of the pandemic

                                                                                                                    -     Increased costs of raw materials and FX depreciation remain a concern in certain
                                                                                                                          instances

CONSTRUCTION
TKYO                             0.64             5.28             3.27             -38.1            410.9          -     Construction sector coverage earnings grew 135% YoY (+34.0% QoQ)
ACL                              2.74             3.76             2.96             -21.3              8.0
                                                                                                                    -     Strict import controls, particularly in the Tile and Cement sectors, continued to support
AEL                              0.32             0.53             0.68              28.3            112.5
                                                                                                                          earnings in 4Q CY20
TILE                             5.09             8.21            15.78              92.2            210.0
RCL                              9.09            11.68            18.15              55.4             99.7          -     Despite rising raw material costs due to the LKR depreciation and strengthening
PARQ                             2.28             5.51             6.04               9.6            164.9                commodity prices, better cost absorption from higher production levels helped margin
ALUM                             0.09             0.55             0.67              21.8            644.4                growth
Total                           20.25            35.52            47.55              33.9            134.8
                                                                                                                    -     On a YoY basis, the effective tax rate of 18.0% also helped bottom line growth

     Source: Asia Securities, CSE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                  09
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW

     .                             EPS (LKR)                                       Growth
                                                                                                                                                   Sector Earnings Commentary
                            4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20                             QoQ %  YoY %

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
LION             13.63                           13.60             9.78             -28.1            -28.2          -     Alcoholic Beverages counters within our coverage witnessed a 26.7% YoY drop in
DIST              0.32                            0.57             0.44             -23.1             36.9                earnings overall (-27.9% QoQ)
Total            13.95                           14.17            10.22             -27.9            -26.7
                                                                                                                    -     Localised lockdowns impacted volumes in October; however volumes were strong in
                                                                                                                          November and December

                                                                                                                    -     LION's cost of sales picked up YoY due to an excise duty increase in Dec 2019. We
                                                                                                                          expect this to normalize by the next quarter.

                                                                                                                    -     Sourcing of local ethanol continued to benefit DIST. We expect gross margins to
                                                                                                                          stabilise at current levels in FY22E.

MANUFACTURING
MGT                              0.13             0.98             1.26              28.6            869.2          -     The Manufacturing sector coverage earnings grew 129.4% YoY (-9.9% QoQ)
TJL                              1.03             0.90             1.10              22.2              6.8
                                                                                                                    -     HAYC and DIPD drove the YoY performance as both companies consolidated global
GLAS                             0.25             0.38             0.40               5.3             60.0
                                                                                                                          market share since the pandemic
HAYC                            16.45            34.42            23.53             -31.6             43.0
DIPD                             5.15            21.88            26.50              21.1            414.6          -     However, DIPD and HAYC witnessed a QoQ decline mainly on the back of a rise in
Total                           23.01            58.56            52.79              -9.9            129.4                raw material costs during the period

                                                                                                                    -     The SL apparel sector continue to benefit from vendor consolidation taking place
                                                                                                                          amongst global apparel brands…

                                                                                                                    -     …while a shift in volumes away from China to other regional producers also helped.

                                                                                                                    -     The LKR depreciation also helped the likes of MGT, TJL, DIPD and HAYC

     Source: Asia Securities, CSE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                               10
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW

      .                             EPS (LKR)                                       Growth
                                                                                                                                                     Sector Earnings Commentary
                             4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20                             QoQ %  YoY %

INSURANCE
CINS                           118.5            63.98           351.18             448.9             196.3           -     Insurance sector continued to improve in 4Q CY20 after the weak 1H CY20
AAIC                            0.94             0.01             2.63            >1,000             179.8           -     Agency business is still not 100% back online, but all the players are focusing on
HASU                            4.07             0.78             3.73             378.2              -8.4                 ramping this up
PINS                            0.80             1.09             1.19               9.2              48.8
Total                          124.3            65.86            358.7             444.7             188.5           -     GI continues to be under pressure with vehicle import restrictions, but home-loans
                                                                                                                           seems to offer some relief for companies with bancassurance partnerships

                                                                                                                     -     LI awareness has increased especially with COVID-19 concerns, but distribution ramp
                                                                                                                           up needs to realise full potential

NON-BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
PLC                 0.76    0.65                                   0.28             -56.9             -63.2          -     The NBFI sector saw shrinking net advances across the sector coverage
LFIN              10.20    11.90                                  12.10               1.7              18.6          -     High impairments also weighed on most companies, amidst a localised lockdowns
CFIN                4.66    8.60                                   4.22             -50.9              -9.4                during the quarter
CDB                 5.95    7.32                                   7.67               4.8              28.9
COCR                1.76    1.34                                   0.93             -30.6             -47.2          -     NIMs showed mixed movements, but overall a lower deposit re-rating during the
                                                                                                                           month supported most companies
Total            23.33    29.81                                   25.20             -15.5               8.0
                                                                                                                     -     Import controls on vehicles continue to dampen lease demand, while companies take
                                                                                                                           a cautious stance on loan disbursements

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
 DIAL              0.29                             0.57             0.43            -24.6              48.3         -     Strong top-line growth and EBITDA margins boosted the result

      Source: Asia Securities, CSE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                11
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW

     .                             EPS (LKR)                                       Growth
                                                                                                                                                   Sector Earnings Commentary
                            4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20                             QoQ %  YoY %

HEALTHCARE
ASIR                             0.44              0.50             0.53              6.0             20.5          -     The Healthcare sector coverage earnings grew 58.0% YoY (11.2% QoQ)
LHCL                             0.44              0.75             0.86             14.7             95.5          -     Tax reversal boosted EPS despite the revenue drop YoY
Total                            0.88              1.25             1.39             11.2             58.0
                                                                                                                    -     OPD and occupancy level continued to remain weak due to second wave concerns

                                                                                                                    -     PCR tests offset the lost revenue from normal operations to some extent

LEISURE
AHUN                             0.61           (4.31)           (3.39)             -21.3         -655.7            -     The Leisure sector coverage remained the hardest hit, declining by -12.6% QoQ (-
KHL                            (0.27)           (0.94)           (0.84)             -10.6          211.1                  1,302% YoY)
AHPL                             0.10           (0.80)           (1.06)              32.5          -1160            -     The Maldivian (MV) segment recovered during the quarter and supported the top-line
Total                            0.44           (6.05)           (5.29)             -12.6          -1302                  to most extent

                                                                                                                    -     The LKR depreciation also helped MV revenue

                                                                                                                    -     SL segment was impacted due to lockdowns and second wave concerns, which went
                                                                                                                          onto impact domestic tourism

     Source: Asia Securities, CSE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                               12
UPCOMING SHARE SPLITS…

                                                                                                                                                    Ordinary Shares (mn)
       Company                        Announcement Date                            Entitlement Date                    Effective Date    Split
                                                                                                                                                   Current        Post-Split

RCL                                    12-Feb-21                                TBA                                  TBA                10-for-1         111           1,108
TILE                                   15-Feb-21                                TBA                                  TBA                5-for-1              53            265
LWL                                    15-Feb-21                                TBA                                  TBA                5-for-1              55            273
PARQ                                   15-Feb-21                                TBA                                  TBA                5-for-1              27            137
LFIN                                   27-Jan-21                                10-Mar-21                            17-Mar-21          4-for-1          139               554
SAMP                                   27-Jan-21                                17-Mar-21                            23-Mar-21          3-for-1          381           1,144
ALUM                                   21-Jan-21                                3-Mar-21                             9-Mar-21           2-for-1          299               599
SERV                                   21-Jan-21                                3-Mar-21                             9-Mar-21           2-for-1          242               484
ALUF                                   21-Jan-21                                4-Mar-21                             10-Mar-21          2-for-1              22             44
REG                                    21-Jan-21                                4-Mar-21                             10-Mar-21          2-for-1              11             23
SINS                                   21-Jan-21                                4-Mar-21                             10-Mar-21          2-for-1              10             20
ACL                                    5-Jan-21                                 23-Feb-21                            2-Mar-21           2-for-1          120               240

      With the share splits, we see more liquidity creating valuation upside on counters that have seen low liquidity in the past;
                However, this may also prove to be counterproductive on counters with already a high level of liquidity

Source: CSE, Asia Securities | TBA – To Be Announced
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited

                                                                                                                                                                                 13
ASIA SECURITIES PORTFOLIO HAS RETURNED 6.9% YTD
 VS. 10.4% ASPI YTD

 •      ASEC portfolio underperformed the ASPI by ~3.5pp since 01 January 2021. The portfolio had returned ~25.0%
        as the end of January 2021.

 •      Our recommendations are based on the December 2020 strategy publication.

 •      As a tactical allocation, we exit our holdings in CCS as of end February and shift the proceeds towards HAYC (TP
        LKR 154.00)

Index value                                                                                                                                    February Performance
135

130

125
                                                                                                                                                                                                       -6.9%
120                                                                                                                                                                                      -8.8% -8.7%

115                                                                                                                                                                             -10.9%
                                                                                                                                                                       -12.3%
110                                                                                                                                                           -14.1%
                                                                                                                                                     -16.1%
105                                                                                                                                         -16.9%

                                                                                                                                   -19.7%
100
  31-Dec-20                  14-Jan-21                  28-Jan-21                  11-Feb-21                  25-Feb-21
                                                                                                                          -22.7%
                            ASEC                        SP20 TR                          CSEALL TR
                                                                                                                          SAMP HAYL          AEL     HEMS HNB          TKYO COMB JKH           CCS     AAIC
Source: Bloomberg, Asia Securities
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                                                                                                                                                                                                          14
KEY PUBLICATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2021

Asia Securities Publications

Macro Publications
•     25th February 2021 – The Billion Dollar Refinancing Question - Link
•     24th February 2021 - UNHRC Resolution unlikely to lead to hard trade sanctions- Link

Equity Publications
Earnings Updates
•     23rd February 2021 – DIST SL – 3Q FY21 - FY22E to see stable volumes; proposed ban poses risk - Link
•     23rd February 2021 – LION SL – 3Q FY21 – Volumes to see steady recovery in FY22E - Link
•     22nd February 2021 – AAIC SL – 4Q CY20 – Capital injections to fuel aggressive growth agenda - Link
•     22nd February 2021 – TKYO SL – 3Q FY21 – A record quarter in sight? We upgrade FY22/23E view - Link
•     22nd February 2021 – HHL SL – 3Q FY21 – Strong growth story intact as HEMS heads into FY22E - Link
•     19th February 2021 – AHUN SL – 3Q FY21 – Losses to continue into FY22E; MV recovery a positive - Link
•     18th February 2021 – TJL SL – 3Q FY21 – Attractive entry point to a solid growth story - Link
•     17th February 2021 – SAMP SL – 4Q CY20 – Robust 4Q to end a tough year; better outlook for ‘21 - Link
•     17th February 2021 – CFIN SL – 3Q FY21 – Impairments, shrinking net advances impact profits - Link
•     16th February 2021 – DIPD SL – 3Q FY21 – Orders full to 2021; wage hike a drag on Plantations - Link
•     16th February 2021 – HAYC SL – 3Q FY21 – Positioned for growth - Link
•     16th February 2021 – PLC SL – 3Q FY21 – Shrinking net advances, high impairments impact PAT- Link
•     10th February 2021 – JKH SL – 3Q FY21 – On slow path to earnings recovery; upside warranted - Link
•     09th February 2021 – MGT SL – 3Q FY21 – Trajectory remains upwards; UNHCR outcome a risk - Link
•     09th February 2021 – LFIN SL – 3Q FY21 – Low rates offset declining net advances - Link
•     08th February 2021 – ALUM SL – 3Q FY21 – Earnings to grow in 4Q; momentum to shift into FY22E - Link
•     05th February 2021 – KFP SL – 3Q FY21 – Improved sales mix to retail channel drives profits - Link

    STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
    Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited

                                                                                                                         15
KEY PUBLICATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2021

Asia Securities Publications

Equity Publications (Continued…)
•     05th February 2021 – KHL SL – 3Q FY21 – Quicker MV turnaround a positive for recovery - Link
•     03rd February 2021 – CCS SL – 3Q FY21 – Positioned for demand recovery in FY22E - Link
•     01st February 2021 – CARG SL – 3Q FY21 – Investments in Retail and FMCG to support growth - Link
•     01st February 2021 – ASIR SL – 3Q FY21 – Easing lockdowns and new investments to drive FY22E - Link

    Company Updates
•     16th February 2021 – HAYL SL – SOTP Valuation Post Split - Link

    Sector Updates
•     11th February 2021 – Tile Sector Update – Polished and Primed; No Cracks In This Story - Link

    STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION
    Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited

                                                                                                                         16
Disclaimer
Analyst Certification
I, Naveed Majeed, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views. I also certify that n o part of my compensation was, is, or will be, indirectly or directly, related to the
specific view or recommendation expressed in this report.

I, Shevon Mendis, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views. I also certify that n o part of my compensation was, is, or will be, indirectly or directly, related to the
specific view or recommendation expressed in this report.

Company Certification
Asia Securities (Private) Limited has no direct affiliation with the company/companies covered in this report and does not re ceive any material benefit from the company for publishing this report.

Disclaimer
The report has been prepared by Asia Securities (Private) Limited. The information and opinions contained herein has been com piled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to
be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation or warran ty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness,
reliability or suitability. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for info rmation purposes only, descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or solic itation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. In
no event will Asia Securities (Private) Limited be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or co nsequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising out of, or in
connection with the use of this report and any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.

Asia Securities (Private) Limited may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, con clusions, research or analysis in which they are based before the material is
disseminated to their customers. Not all customers will receive the material at the same time. Asia Securities (Private) Limited, their respective directors, officers, representatives, employees, related
persons and/or Asia Securities (Private) Limited, may have a long or short position in any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned or issuers described herein at any time and may make a
purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or
agent. Asia Securities (Private) Limited may make markets in securities or other financial instruments described in this publication, in securities of issuers described herein or in securities underlying or
related to such securities. Asia Securities (Private) Limited may have recently underwritten the securities of an issuer mentioned herein. The information contained in this report is for general information
purposes only. This report and its content is copyright of Asia Securities (Private) Limited and all rights reserved. This report- in whole or in part- may not, except with the express written permission of Asia
Securities (Private) Limited be reproduced or distributed or commercially exploited in any material form by any means whether graphic, electronic, mechanical or any means. Nor may you transmit it or store
it in any other website or other form of electronic retrieval system. Any unauthorized use of this report will result in immediate proceedings.

                                                                                          Barring any negative impact on irrigation systems, we
                                                                                          expect above average paddy harvests in 2020
CONTACT US
Research
 Kavinda Perera – Head of Research   Lakshini Fernando            Naveed Majeed
 Strategy | Banks | Insurance |      Economics | Finance          Manufacturing |
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 kavinda@asiasecurities.lk           +94 11 772 2045              naveed@asiasecurities.lk
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 Harini Wijayaratnam                                              Shevon Mendis
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Dayan Fernando                       Charith Perera                Gagani Jayawardhana
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Foreign Sales
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Retail Sales
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