Sri Lanka: Equity Market Roundup February 2021 - A Sentiment-driven Drop; Cheap Valuations Heading Into March - CSE
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Sri Lanka: Equity Market Roundup February 2021 A Sentiment-driven Drop; Cheap Valuations Heading Into March February 2021 ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH
KEY TAKEAWAYS - FEBRUARY 2021 ➢ Colombo All Share Price Index (ASPI) fell 13.7% while the S&P SL 20 fell 15.6% during the month. ➢ February losses carved into the January gains ending at +10.4% YTD. As a result, the ASPI fell back from being the top performing market in January to the 7th-ranked market globally YTD. ➢ Foreign exists continued in February, amounting to LKR 4.96bn, led by SAMP ➢ All sectors see a MoM decline in performance ➢ TTM market P/E fell to 11.1x as of the 25th of February (22.3% discount to its 10-year historic average of 14.4x) on the back of 1) A weakening of the ASPI (numerator) and, 2) A pickup in TTM earnings with the 4Q CY20 earnings release (denominator). ➢ As noted in our previous update, the TTM P/E as of January (19.8x) seemed elevated on the back of the abnormally low earnings seen in the TTM period due to the pandemic ➢ Current P/B fell to 0.9x (1.3x end January), a 46.6% discount to the 10-year historic average of 1.7x ➢ As of 25th February, the ASPI traded at a 11.2x forward P/E 2021E, falling closer to the mid-band on a sentiment-driven drop; we see no changes to the earnings outlook and believe the low interest rate environment warrants further upside ➢ Earnings review 4Q CY20 – As expected, the Manufacturing sector led performance with robust earnings from both Domestic and Export companies; The Leisure sector remained the hardest hit as it continues to recover from the pandemic ➢ Asia securities portfolio returned 6.9% YTD vs. 10.4% ASPI YTD STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 01
ASPI REMAINS IN THE TOP 10 RANKED PERFORMERS YTD, DESPITE WEAKENING IN FEBRUARY A sentiment-driven weakening in February carved into the January gains… …as the ASPI ranked 7th on YTD performance -25.4% +12.6% +16.2% +13.2% +10.4% MSE Top 20 Index 74.8 Index Index 10,000 4,000 GSE Composite Index 13.5 Top Five ADX GENERAL INDEX 12.3 9,000 3,500 FTSE/JSE AFRICA ALL SHR 11.3 8,000 SOFIX INDEX 10.7 7,000 3,000 SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 10.4 7th Ranked YTD 6,000 2,500 S&P/NZX 50 Index Gross -6.6 Worst Five S&P NZX All Index -6.7 5,000 2,000 MALTA STOCK EXCHANGE IND -7.1 4,000 BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX -7.6 3,000 1,500 S&P/NZX 20 Index -7.8 Jan-20 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 -20 0 20 40 60 80 ASPI (LHS) S&P SL20 (RHS) • The ASPI fell 1,192 points in February, to close 13.7% lower MoM • S&P SL20 fell 15.6% in February (-548 points) • ASPI ranked 7th amongst top performing indices YTD globally, falling from its top performer status at the end of January Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 02
SRI LANKA EQUITY | MONTHLY REVIEW - FEBRUARY TOP 5 TRADED SECTOR PERFORMANCE GAINERS / LOSERS TICKER 25-Feb 29-Jan Δ% VAL CMP 25-Feb 29-Jan Δ% TICKER Δ% SECTOR 25-Feb 29-Jan (LKR mn) (LKR) SLNDN 3,000 1,812 +65.5 Food & Staples Retailing 1,380 1,434 -3.8 CALFN 59.70 50.00 +19.4 BIL.N 22,558 5.80 -13.4 Telecommunication 9,71 1,015 -4.4 AGALN 30.20 27.30 +10.6 LOLC.N 9,166 365.00 -28.8 ATLLN 9.50 8.70 +9.2 Insurance 1,399 1,468 -4.7 EXPO.N 7,145 46.50 -7.9 KFPN 156.0 147.50 +5.8 F&B and Tobacco 978 1,092 -10.5 NIFL.N 70.10 121.75 -42.4 SAMP.N 5,432 155.75 -22.7 Banks 633 742 -14.8 CIT.N 113.0 197.25 -42.7 RCL.N 5,208 285.50 -28.4 Capital Goods 1,184 1,436 -17.5 ASPH.N 0.40 0.70 -42.9 SEMB.X 0.30 0.60 -50.0 SEMB.N 0.60 1.30 -53.8 PERFORMANCE OF TOP 10 S&P STOCKS TICKER Market Cap (LKR Market Cap (USD Val Traded % of total High (LKR) Low (LKR) Close (LKR) Δ (%) mn) mn) (LKR mn) turnover JKH.N 200,899 1,033 4,234 4.3 171.75 148.00 152.25 -8.8 LOLC.N 173,448 891 9,166 9.4 545.00 300.00 365.00 -28.8 DIAL.N 103,807 534 398 0.4 13.10 11.90 12.70 0.0 COMB.N 97,588 502 1,671 1.7 100.00 80.00 88.80 -10.9 DIST.N 97,060 499 76 0.1 23.50 19.20 21.10 -8.3 EXPO.N 90,904 467 7,145 7.3 56.40 38.40 46.50 -7.9 SAMP.N 59,412 305 5,432 5.6 210.00 145.50 155.75 -22.7 MELS.N 58,386 300 714 0.7 67.00 42.10 50.10 -24.9 HNB.N 54,880 282 1,088 1.1 159.75 125.25 133.75 -14.1 HHL.N 48,310 248 1,621 1.7 96.60 80.00 81.00 -16.1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 03
FOREIGN OUTFLOWS CONTINUED IN FEBRUARY, LED BY SAMP Heavy selling by foreign investors continued in the month of February… …with SAMP leading the outflows LKR mn HAYC.N 1,124 100.00 - HAYL.N 1,083 (100.00) LALU.N 462 (200.00) (300.00) DIPD.N 167 (400.00) JKH.N (287) (500.00) RCL.N (309) (600.00) (700.00) SUN.N (937) (800.00) (2,505) 01-Feb-21 07-Feb-21 13-Feb-21 19-Feb-21 25-Feb-21 SAMP.N (2,600) (1,600) (600) 400 LKR mn • Macro concerns, specifically around foreign debt repayment outlook and ongoing UNHRC discussions continues to drive foreign outflows • A credit rating upgrade in 2021 will be a key catalyst to foreign inflows; the valuation advantage of the CSE would make it compelling Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 04
TTM MARKET P/E FALLS SHARPLY ON PRICE DROP & NORMALISING EARNINGS; P/B STILL AT A DISCOUNT Market P/E remains high due to abnormally low TTM EPS… …however, current P/B remains at a discount (x) (x) 36.0 4.5 4.0 31.0 3.5 26.0 3.0 2.5 21.0 2.0 16.0 1.5 1.0 0.9x 11.0 0.5 11.1x 6.0 - Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 * ASPI - TTM PE (LHS) 10Y PE average ASPI - PB (RHS) 10Y PB average • According to Bloomberg, TTM market ASPI P/E stood at 11.1x as of the 25th of February, falling below its 10-year historic average of 14.4x • Current P/E fell from 19.8x as of end of January, due to 1) A weakening of the ASPI (numerator) and, 2) A pickup in earnings with the 4Q CY20 earnings releases (denominator). • As noted in our previous update, the TTM P/E as of January seemed elevated due to the abnormally low earnings seen in the TTM period • Current P/B stood at 0.9x (1.3x end January), remaining at a 46.6% discount to the 10-year historic average of 1.7x Source – Bloomberg, Asia Securities STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 05
THE SENTIMENT-DRIVE DROP PUSHES FWD P/E CLOSER TO THE MID-BAND AS EARNINGS OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONG ASPI. ASPI - 7,476 12,000 FWD P/E - 11.2x 2021E) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 4x 7x 10x 14x 18x ASPI • As of 25th February, the ASPI traded at 11.2x forward P/E 2021E (12.7x Fwd P/E as of end January) • We see February’s weakening as a sentiment-driven one, and see no changes to the fundamentals and earnings outlook of companies • We see further room for upside from this point due to: 1) Continued drive towards equities in a historically low interest rate environment, 2) Strong recovery in corporate earnings in 2021 and 3) High likelihood of new listings in 2021 Source: Bloomberg, Asia Securities STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 06
ALL SECTORS SEE A MoM DECLINE IN FEBRUARY PERFORMANCE (%) +1,105 % 250 200 150 100 50 - (50) Transportation Materials Automobiles & Components Diversified Financial Capital Goods Retailing Energy Consumer Durables Healthcare Equipment & Services Utilities Household & Personal Products Food & Staples Retailing Food, Beverage & Tobacco Commercial & Proffessional Services Telecommunication Services Consumer Services Real Estate Insurance Banks YoY YTD MoM Source: CSE, Asia Securities | Follow link for GICS company classification under each sector - Link STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 07
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW . EPS (LKR) Growth Sector Earnings Commentary 4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20 QoQ % YoY % CONGLOMERATES HHL 1.64 2.16 2.29 6.2 40.1 - The Conglomerates coverage earnings declined 12.0% YoY overall (+13.8% QoQ) JKH 1.82 0.52 0.75 45.5 -58.8 - HEMS benefitted from its large exposure to the FMCG and Healthcare segments Total 3.45 2.67 3.04 13.7 -12.0 during the quarter, with majority of the portfolio classified as essentials - At JKH, lockdowns within the Western Province impacted the Consumer segment. - JKH should see a notable upside to group earnings as revenue recognition from Cinnamon Life commences in 4Q FY21E BANKS SAMP 11.01 3.19 8.46 165.2 -23.2 - Bank earnings have been strong in 4Q mainly due to trading gains (FX gains and HNB 12.52 6.71 8.77 30.7 -30.0 realised/unrealised investment gains) COMB 5.71 3.51 5.44 55.0 -4.7 - Loan growth has been muted across the sector, but has picked up slightly from the SEYB 2.44 1.18 1.63 38.1 -33.2 weak 1H CY20 levels NDB 8.29 6.78 5.63 -17.0 -32.1 SDB 2.79 4.85 2.10 -56.7 -24.7 - Impairments are still elevated as most banks have raised the credit risk for several Total 42.76 26.22 32.03 22.2 -25.1 sectors under pressure; SAMP was an exception, as it had booked higher impairments for these sectors early on in the cycle - The sector reported ~40-50% lower take up in moratoriums in the second round compared to round 1 - The lower tax rate of 24% was not applied in Q4, as the legislation was not gazetted… - …however, this should come into effect from 1Q CY21 Source: Asia Securities, CSE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 08
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW . EPS (LKR) Growth Sector Earnings Commentary 4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20 QoQ % YoY % FMCG/R CARG 2.15 2.78 3.98 43.3 85.2 - FMCG/R counters within our coverage witnessed a 0.4% YoY decline in earnings CCS 5.99 8.62 5.35 -37.9 -10.7 overall (-25.2% QoQ) KFP 1.95 3.01 3.13 4.0 60.5 - Localised lockdowns affected retail operations; stores also witnessed lower footfall and NEST 13.34 18.93 12.85 -32.1 -3.7 higher basket values CTC 21.36 26.33 19.29 -26.7 -9.7 Total 44.79 59.67 44.60 -25.2 -0.4 - FMCG demand recovered going into the festive season with take-home products outperforming impulse products - Panic buying in 3Q CY20 and lower income levels affected cigarette volumes during the quarter - We expect these trends to normalise with the gradual containment of the pandemic - Increased costs of raw materials and FX depreciation remain a concern in certain instances CONSTRUCTION TKYO 0.64 5.28 3.27 -38.1 410.9 - Construction sector coverage earnings grew 135% YoY (+34.0% QoQ) ACL 2.74 3.76 2.96 -21.3 8.0 - Strict import controls, particularly in the Tile and Cement sectors, continued to support AEL 0.32 0.53 0.68 28.3 112.5 earnings in 4Q CY20 TILE 5.09 8.21 15.78 92.2 210.0 RCL 9.09 11.68 18.15 55.4 99.7 - Despite rising raw material costs due to the LKR depreciation and strengthening PARQ 2.28 5.51 6.04 9.6 164.9 commodity prices, better cost absorption from higher production levels helped margin ALUM 0.09 0.55 0.67 21.8 644.4 growth Total 20.25 35.52 47.55 33.9 134.8 - On a YoY basis, the effective tax rate of 18.0% also helped bottom line growth Source: Asia Securities, CSE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 09
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW . EPS (LKR) Growth Sector Earnings Commentary 4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20 QoQ % YoY % ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES LION 13.63 13.60 9.78 -28.1 -28.2 - Alcoholic Beverages counters within our coverage witnessed a 26.7% YoY drop in DIST 0.32 0.57 0.44 -23.1 36.9 earnings overall (-27.9% QoQ) Total 13.95 14.17 10.22 -27.9 -26.7 - Localised lockdowns impacted volumes in October; however volumes were strong in November and December - LION's cost of sales picked up YoY due to an excise duty increase in Dec 2019. We expect this to normalize by the next quarter. - Sourcing of local ethanol continued to benefit DIST. We expect gross margins to stabilise at current levels in FY22E. MANUFACTURING MGT 0.13 0.98 1.26 28.6 869.2 - The Manufacturing sector coverage earnings grew 129.4% YoY (-9.9% QoQ) TJL 1.03 0.90 1.10 22.2 6.8 - HAYC and DIPD drove the YoY performance as both companies consolidated global GLAS 0.25 0.38 0.40 5.3 60.0 market share since the pandemic HAYC 16.45 34.42 23.53 -31.6 43.0 DIPD 5.15 21.88 26.50 21.1 414.6 - However, DIPD and HAYC witnessed a QoQ decline mainly on the back of a rise in Total 23.01 58.56 52.79 -9.9 129.4 raw material costs during the period - The SL apparel sector continue to benefit from vendor consolidation taking place amongst global apparel brands… - …while a shift in volumes away from China to other regional producers also helped. - The LKR depreciation also helped the likes of MGT, TJL, DIPD and HAYC Source: Asia Securities, CSE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 10
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW . EPS (LKR) Growth Sector Earnings Commentary 4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20 QoQ % YoY % INSURANCE CINS 118.5 63.98 351.18 448.9 196.3 - Insurance sector continued to improve in 4Q CY20 after the weak 1H CY20 AAIC 0.94 0.01 2.63 >1,000 179.8 - Agency business is still not 100% back online, but all the players are focusing on HASU 4.07 0.78 3.73 378.2 -8.4 ramping this up PINS 0.80 1.09 1.19 9.2 48.8 Total 124.3 65.86 358.7 444.7 188.5 - GI continues to be under pressure with vehicle import restrictions, but home-loans seems to offer some relief for companies with bancassurance partnerships - LI awareness has increased especially with COVID-19 concerns, but distribution ramp up needs to realise full potential NON-BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS PLC 0.76 0.65 0.28 -56.9 -63.2 - The NBFI sector saw shrinking net advances across the sector coverage LFIN 10.20 11.90 12.10 1.7 18.6 - High impairments also weighed on most companies, amidst a localised lockdowns CFIN 4.66 8.60 4.22 -50.9 -9.4 during the quarter CDB 5.95 7.32 7.67 4.8 28.9 COCR 1.76 1.34 0.93 -30.6 -47.2 - NIMs showed mixed movements, but overall a lower deposit re-rating during the month supported most companies Total 23.33 29.81 25.20 -15.5 8.0 - Import controls on vehicles continue to dampen lease demand, while companies take a cautious stance on loan disbursements TELECOMMUNICATIONS DIAL 0.29 0.57 0.43 -24.6 48.3 - Strong top-line growth and EBITDA margins boosted the result Source: Asia Securities, CSE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 11
4Q CY20 – EARNINGS REVIEW . EPS (LKR) Growth Sector Earnings Commentary 4Q CY19 3Q CY20 4Q CY20 QoQ % YoY % HEALTHCARE ASIR 0.44 0.50 0.53 6.0 20.5 - The Healthcare sector coverage earnings grew 58.0% YoY (11.2% QoQ) LHCL 0.44 0.75 0.86 14.7 95.5 - Tax reversal boosted EPS despite the revenue drop YoY Total 0.88 1.25 1.39 11.2 58.0 - OPD and occupancy level continued to remain weak due to second wave concerns - PCR tests offset the lost revenue from normal operations to some extent LEISURE AHUN 0.61 (4.31) (3.39) -21.3 -655.7 - The Leisure sector coverage remained the hardest hit, declining by -12.6% QoQ (- KHL (0.27) (0.94) (0.84) -10.6 211.1 1,302% YoY) AHPL 0.10 (0.80) (1.06) 32.5 -1160 - The Maldivian (MV) segment recovered during the quarter and supported the top-line Total 0.44 (6.05) (5.29) -12.6 -1302 to most extent - The LKR depreciation also helped MV revenue - SL segment was impacted due to lockdowns and second wave concerns, which went onto impact domestic tourism Source: Asia Securities, CSE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 12
UPCOMING SHARE SPLITS… Ordinary Shares (mn) Company Announcement Date Entitlement Date Effective Date Split Current Post-Split RCL 12-Feb-21 TBA TBA 10-for-1 111 1,108 TILE 15-Feb-21 TBA TBA 5-for-1 53 265 LWL 15-Feb-21 TBA TBA 5-for-1 55 273 PARQ 15-Feb-21 TBA TBA 5-for-1 27 137 LFIN 27-Jan-21 10-Mar-21 17-Mar-21 4-for-1 139 554 SAMP 27-Jan-21 17-Mar-21 23-Mar-21 3-for-1 381 1,144 ALUM 21-Jan-21 3-Mar-21 9-Mar-21 2-for-1 299 599 SERV 21-Jan-21 3-Mar-21 9-Mar-21 2-for-1 242 484 ALUF 21-Jan-21 4-Mar-21 10-Mar-21 2-for-1 22 44 REG 21-Jan-21 4-Mar-21 10-Mar-21 2-for-1 11 23 SINS 21-Jan-21 4-Mar-21 10-Mar-21 2-for-1 10 20 ACL 5-Jan-21 23-Feb-21 2-Mar-21 2-for-1 120 240 With the share splits, we see more liquidity creating valuation upside on counters that have seen low liquidity in the past; However, this may also prove to be counterproductive on counters with already a high level of liquidity Source: CSE, Asia Securities | TBA – To Be Announced STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 13
ASIA SECURITIES PORTFOLIO HAS RETURNED 6.9% YTD VS. 10.4% ASPI YTD • ASEC portfolio underperformed the ASPI by ~3.5pp since 01 January 2021. The portfolio had returned ~25.0% as the end of January 2021. • Our recommendations are based on the December 2020 strategy publication. • As a tactical allocation, we exit our holdings in CCS as of end February and shift the proceeds towards HAYC (TP LKR 154.00) Index value February Performance 135 130 125 -6.9% 120 -8.8% -8.7% 115 -10.9% -12.3% 110 -14.1% -16.1% 105 -16.9% -19.7% 100 31-Dec-20 14-Jan-21 28-Jan-21 11-Feb-21 25-Feb-21 -22.7% ASEC SP20 TR CSEALL TR SAMP HAYL AEL HEMS HNB TKYO COMB JKH CCS AAIC Source: Bloomberg, Asia Securities STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 14
KEY PUBLICATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2021 Asia Securities Publications Macro Publications • 25th February 2021 – The Billion Dollar Refinancing Question - Link • 24th February 2021 - UNHRC Resolution unlikely to lead to hard trade sanctions- Link Equity Publications Earnings Updates • 23rd February 2021 – DIST SL – 3Q FY21 - FY22E to see stable volumes; proposed ban poses risk - Link • 23rd February 2021 – LION SL – 3Q FY21 – Volumes to see steady recovery in FY22E - Link • 22nd February 2021 – AAIC SL – 4Q CY20 – Capital injections to fuel aggressive growth agenda - Link • 22nd February 2021 – TKYO SL – 3Q FY21 – A record quarter in sight? We upgrade FY22/23E view - Link • 22nd February 2021 – HHL SL – 3Q FY21 – Strong growth story intact as HEMS heads into FY22E - Link • 19th February 2021 – AHUN SL – 3Q FY21 – Losses to continue into FY22E; MV recovery a positive - Link • 18th February 2021 – TJL SL – 3Q FY21 – Attractive entry point to a solid growth story - Link • 17th February 2021 – SAMP SL – 4Q CY20 – Robust 4Q to end a tough year; better outlook for ‘21 - Link • 17th February 2021 – CFIN SL – 3Q FY21 – Impairments, shrinking net advances impact profits - Link • 16th February 2021 – DIPD SL – 3Q FY21 – Orders full to 2021; wage hike a drag on Plantations - Link • 16th February 2021 – HAYC SL – 3Q FY21 – Positioned for growth - Link • 16th February 2021 – PLC SL – 3Q FY21 – Shrinking net advances, high impairments impact PAT- Link • 10th February 2021 – JKH SL – 3Q FY21 – On slow path to earnings recovery; upside warranted - Link • 09th February 2021 – MGT SL – 3Q FY21 – Trajectory remains upwards; UNHCR outcome a risk - Link • 09th February 2021 – LFIN SL – 3Q FY21 – Low rates offset declining net advances - Link • 08th February 2021 – ALUM SL – 3Q FY21 – Earnings to grow in 4Q; momentum to shift into FY22E - Link • 05th February 2021 – KFP SL – 3Q FY21 – Improved sales mix to retail channel drives profits - Link STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 15
KEY PUBLICATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2021 Asia Securities Publications Equity Publications (Continued…) • 05th February 2021 – KHL SL – 3Q FY21 – Quicker MV turnaround a positive for recovery - Link • 03rd February 2021 – CCS SL – 3Q FY21 – Positioned for demand recovery in FY22E - Link • 01st February 2021 – CARG SL – 3Q FY21 – Investments in Retail and FMCG to support growth - Link • 01st February 2021 – ASIR SL – 3Q FY21 – Easing lockdowns and new investments to drive FY22E - Link Company Updates • 16th February 2021 – HAYL SL – SOTP Valuation Post Split - Link Sector Updates • 11th February 2021 – Tile Sector Update – Polished and Primed; No Cracks In This Story - Link STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION Any use of this material without specific permission of Asia Securities (Pvt) Ltd Sri Lanka is strictly prohibited 16
Disclaimer Analyst Certification I, Naveed Majeed, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views. I also certify that n o part of my compensation was, is, or will be, indirectly or directly, related to the specific view or recommendation expressed in this report. I, Shevon Mendis, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views. I also certify that n o part of my compensation was, is, or will be, indirectly or directly, related to the specific view or recommendation expressed in this report. Company Certification Asia Securities (Private) Limited has no direct affiliation with the company/companies covered in this report and does not re ceive any material benefit from the company for publishing this report. Disclaimer The report has been prepared by Asia Securities (Private) Limited. The information and opinions contained herein has been com piled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation or warran ty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for info rmation purposes only, descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or solic itation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. In no event will Asia Securities (Private) Limited be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or co nsequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising out of, or in connection with the use of this report and any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk. Asia Securities (Private) Limited may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, con clusions, research or analysis in which they are based before the material is disseminated to their customers. Not all customers will receive the material at the same time. Asia Securities (Private) Limited, their respective directors, officers, representatives, employees, related persons and/or Asia Securities (Private) Limited, may have a long or short position in any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned or issuers described herein at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent. Asia Securities (Private) Limited may make markets in securities or other financial instruments described in this publication, in securities of issuers described herein or in securities underlying or related to such securities. Asia Securities (Private) Limited may have recently underwritten the securities of an issuer mentioned herein. The information contained in this report is for general information purposes only. This report and its content is copyright of Asia Securities (Private) Limited and all rights reserved. This report- in whole or in part- may not, except with the express written permission of Asia Securities (Private) Limited be reproduced or distributed or commercially exploited in any material form by any means whether graphic, electronic, mechanical or any means. Nor may you transmit it or store it in any other website or other form of electronic retrieval system. Any unauthorized use of this report will result in immediate proceedings. Barring any negative impact on irrigation systems, we expect above average paddy harvests in 2020
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