SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK

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SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
South Downs Centre
North Street
                                         SOUTH DOWNS
Midhurst
West Sussex                              NATIONAL PARK
GU29 9DH
T: 01730 814810
                     SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK   Climate Change Adaptation Plan
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
SOUTH DOWNS
                                NATIONAL PARK
                                Climate Change Adaptation Plan

Pond dipping in July      ©SDNPA/ Mischa Haller

2 South Downs National Park
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
CONTENTS
Introduction                               04
The National Park Partnership              06
Management Plan
Why produce a climate change               07
adaptation plan?
Building resilience into ecological        08
networks
The Adaptation Approach                    09
(methodology)
Evidence Base                              10
National level projections till 2050       11
Primary habitats vulnerable to             12
climate change
Impacts and observed changes on key 13
National Park assets and interests
Ecosystem Services and climate change 20
Assessment of the risks and                22
opportunities
Summary of high risk impacts over          24
short, medium and long term
Interdependencies, barriers                25
and opportunities
Next Steps – Implementing and              26
reviewing the Action Plan
Annexes
Annex 1 – Ecosystem Service Impacts        28
Annex 2 – Assessment of the principal 38
climate change risks and opportunities
Annex 3 – Climate Change Action Plan 80
Annex 4 – Policy responses to climate      98
change within the Partnership
Management Plan (PMP)
Annex 5 – Bibliography                     100

                    Climate Change Adaptation Plan   3
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
INTRODUCTION
Climate change is one of the            At the upper range of current predictions                                       The South Downs National Park
                                                                                           1
                                                                                             ‘Where there are threats
                                                                                           of serious or irreversible
                                        we may start to exceed the thresholds at
principal drivers of environmental
                                                                                           damage, lack of full
                                                                                           scientific certainty shall
                                        which these services function adequately.          not be used as a reason
change for the South Downs              The current understanding of environmental         for postponing cost
                                                                                           effective measures that                                                      ALTON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Godalming

National Park in the future. Its        limits is insufficient, but in terms of planning   prevent environmental
                                                                                           degradation’ (United
                                                                                                                                                                Four
                                                                                                                                                                                          Binsted                                                       KEY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CRAWLEY                                            EAST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           GRINSTEAD
                                                                                                                                                                Marks
impacts are likely to be significant    adaptive responses we have adopted a               Nations General                                            New               A3
                                                                                                                                                                           1                    Bordon                                                        South Downs National Park                   Railway
                                                                                           Assembly, 1992’.                                         Alresford                                                     Haslemere                                   South Downs Way                             Settlement
                                        precautionary approach1.                                                                                                                             Liphook
and profound across a whole range                                                                                                                                              Selborne                                                                       South Downs Way                                                          Crowborough
                                                                                                                          WINCHESTER                                                                                                                            Horsham
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (footpath only)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Northchapel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Railway Stations
                                        Change is inevitable, and the ability of                                                                                                   Liss
of areas and assets. The impact
                                        natural systems to be resilient or adapt                                                         Twyford        West Meon              PETERSFIELD                                                                                                       Haywards
upon some of the key Ecosystem          to climate change varies. Planning for                                            Eastleigh
                                                                                                                                             Upham                  East Meon
                                                                                                                                                                                                     MIDHURST
                                                                                                                                                                                          River Rother                    Petworth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Heath
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Uckfield
Services of the National Park are       adaptation requires ‘adjustment in natural                                                    Bishopstoke      River Meon
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cocking                     Pulborough            Hurstpierpoint                   Burgess Hill                                  Heathfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Storrington
also potentially significant.           or human systems in response to actual or
                                                                                                                            SOUTHAMPTON
                                                                                                                                                                         Rowlands Castle            Singleton
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Steyning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Ditchling

                                        expected climatic stimuli or their effects,                                                                                                                                               River Arun                                                                  LEWES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hailsham
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Lavant
                                        which moderate harm or exploits beneficial                                                                                        Havant                                                                         River Adur                                        River Ouse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Arundel
                                        opportunities’ (Intergovernmental Panel on                                                       FAREHAM                                                                                                                                                                      Alfriston
                                                                                                                                                                                               CHICHESTER                                  WORTHING BRIGHTON & HOVE
                                        Climate Change, 2007).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cuckmere
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        River            EASTBOURNE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 LITTLEHAMPTON            N
                                                                                                                                             GOSPORT
                                                                                                                                                             PORTSMOUTH                                                                                                                                                                  East Dean
                                        The adaptive responses we have set out                                                                                                                                  BOGNOR REGIS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ENGLISH CHANNEL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0                 10 km

                                        in this report have been informed by the
                                        five main adaptation principles (see below                                                                                                                                                                 This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   on behalf of the Controller of her majesty’s Stationery Office © Crown copyright 100050083 2011

                                        diagram) and seek to work with the dynamics
                                        of natural systems.
                                                                                                                        The role of the South Downs
                                                                                                                        National Park Authority                                                                                        The Purposes and Duty of the
Diagram 1: Five principles                                                                                                                                                                                                             National Park Authority
of adaptation, England                                                                                                  The South Downs National Park Authority (SDNPA) has
Biodiversity Strategy:                                                                                                  a key role in meeting the challenges and opportunities                                                          The National Park Authority has two statutory
Climate Change                                                                                                          climate change may present. We need to ensure we                                                                purposes:
Adaptation Principles
                                         Maintain
                                                                           Accommodate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1
                                                                                                                        have a full understanding, underpinned by adequate                                                                     ‘To conserve and enhance the natural
(Defra, 2008)                          and increase                                                                     evidence, of the risk posed to the National Park and
                                        ecological                            change                                    its key assets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of the National Park area’;
                                        resilience                                                                      Our work, both in terms of policy and delivery, needs                                                            and
                                                                                                                        to be sighted on the full range of potential impacts

                                                              Take
                                                                                                                        relating to climate change. Through our Partnership
                                                                                                                        Management Plan and other action plans we need to                                                               2      ‘To promote opportunities for the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                understanding and enjoyment of the
                                                           practical                                                    ensure we properly co-ordinate our work in relation to                                                                  special qualities of the National Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                by the public’;
                                                          action now                                                    climate change adaptation and mitigation.
                                                                                                                        We need to use our convening power to achieve                                                                    In carrying out these purposes, it also has a
                                                                                                                        the necessary joined-up and shared action with our                                                               duty to:
                                                                                                                        external partnerships as well. This climate change                                                             ‘Seek to foster the economic and social
                                     Integrate                               Develop                                    adaptation report, the risk assessment and its                                                                   well-being of the local communities within
                                   action across                         knowledge and                                  accompanying action plan set out how we intend                                                                   the National Park’.
                                                                                                                        to do this.
                                    all sectors                          plan strategically                                                                                                                                             In addition, Section 62 of the Environment Act
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1995 requires all relevant bodies to have regard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        for these purposes in terms of their activities,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        plans and programmes.

4    South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Climate Change Adaptation Plan                             5
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
THE NATIONAL                                                                                                           WHY PRODUCE A CLIMATE
PARK PARTNERSHIP                                                                                                       CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN?
MANAGEMENT PLAN
In terms of its plan making           Core Values and                       The requirement to report also             The Climate Change Act (2008)         in building resilience to climate     n	Preparing proposals and policy
                                                                            covers the impact on the rural             gave a new directive power to the     change across sectors, taking           responses to adapt adequately
and policies we, the SDNPA,           Guiding Principles                    economy and how resilience for             Secretary of State for Environment,   into account the full range             to the risks to their business that
have sought to develop                from the PMP that                     the future might be built in through       Food & Rural Affairs. This allows     of social, economic and                 relate to climate change;
an integrated approach                                                      adaptive responses.                        them to ask public authorities,       environmental impacts.
to managing land, water
                                      are relevant to this                                                             statutory bodies and other
                                                                                                                                                                                                   n	Co-operating with other
                                                                                                                                                             The UK government is preparing          reporting authorities to achieve
and the living resources of           adaptation plan              ‘Promoting good governance –                        organisations performing functions
                                                                                                                                                             to update the UK Climate Change         that purpose.
                                                                    considering how to encourage                       of a public nature, to report on
                                                                                                                                                             Risk Assessment and the supporting
the National Park. It also            ‘Living within environmental active participation’                               their progress in adapting to                                               The structure and approach taken
                                                                                                                                                             evidence reports in 2017. To
seeks to promote their                limits – considering the
                                                                                                                       climate change. This is known
                                                                                                                                                             inform this process, the Secretary
                                                                                                                                                                                                   in this report has been informed
                                                                            The requirement to report also             as the Adaptation Reporting                                                 by Defra’s reporting guidance.
conservation and sustainable          impact on the environment’            means that we need to identify                                                   of State for Environment, Food &
                                                                                                                                                                                                   The previous National Adaptation
                                                                                                                       Power (ARP). The ARP places a
use, to ensure that these                                                   risks associated with climate              requirement on these bodies to
                                                                                                                                                             Rural Affairs invited the National
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Programme report also provided
                                      This adaptation report and action                                                                                      Park Authorities to undertake
essential natural services are        plan is about identifying the risks
                                                                            change and plan effectively to             produce a report that sets out how
                                                                                                                                                             a second round of reporting.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   a good basis for defining some
                                                                            mitigate or adapt in response to                                                                                       of the principle topic heading
protected and enhanced                relating to climate change and
                                                                            those challenges. This reflects
                                                                                                                       they are responding to the risks
                                                                                                                                                             The SDNPA formally agreed to
                                                                                                                       and impacts presented by climate                                            and focal areas.
now and for the future.               how they might impact upon
                                                                            and promotes good governance.              change to their core business.
                                                                                                                                                             participate in this.
                                      the environmental, social and                                                                                                                                The reports submitted through
                                                                            The Adaptation Report, once                                                      Voluntary guidance on how to
The Partnership Management Plan       economic assets of the National                                                  In July 2013, the government                                                the second round will help the
                                                                            completed, is a mechanism                                                        produce an Adaptation Report was
(PMP) for the South Downs was         Park. This is fundamentally about                                                published the first National                                                government assess the level of
                                                                            through which we can encourage                                                   issued to all reporting authorities
published in 2013. It is the first    living within environmental limits                                               Adaptation Programme. This                                                  capacity within each sector to
                                                                            action by actively communicating                                                 giving them advice on:
over-arching five year strategy for   – either through highlighting                                                    summary report was based upon                                               develop adaptive responses.
                                                                            the findings of the report.
the South Downs National Park.        mitigation or adaptation responses.                                              data from the first ‘Adaptation       n	Assessing the current and          The information provided will also
Preparation of the PMP was led                                              ‘Using evidence to support                 Plan’ reporting round. Based upon       predicted impacts of climate        inform the review of the National
and co-ordinated by the National      ‘Ensuring a strong healthy and                                                   current modelled projections, it        change in relation to their         Climate Change Risk Assessment
                                                                             proposals – taking account of
Park Authority working jointly with    just society – considering social                                               sets out the current challenges         purposes and statutory functions;   in any updates of the Adaptation
a high-level stakeholder group –                                             the precautionary principle’.                                                                                         Programme thereafter.
                                       cohesion and wellbeing’
the South Downs Partnership and                                             The adaptation report will need to
with extensive public consultation.   Environmental impacts, driven
                                                                            be properly evidenced to meet the
                                      by climate change, are also likely
The PMP sets out a long-term vision                                         requirements being placed on us
                                      to have significant impacts on
for the National Park. It includes                                          by the Climate Change Act and
                                      society, health and well-being.
11 outcomes which provide a                                                 the Adaptation Reporting Powers
                                      The requirement placed on us to
framework for communities,                                                  being exercised by the Secretary of
                                      report covers social impacts as
landowners, charities, businesses                                           State. It needs to be based upon the
                                      well – as far as they relate to our
and public bodies to work together                                          best available science and the UK
                                      purposes and duty.
to make this vision and these                                               Climate Impacts Projections (UKCIP)
outcomes a reality. The PMP also                                            and national level risk assessment.
                                      ‘Achieving a sustainable
drives the Authority’s own business                                         As it requires us to think about
                                       economy – considering                building adaptive responses for the
and operational plans, and             impacts on or contribution
provides the starting point for the                                         future, it is taking full account of the
                                       to a sustainable economy’            precautionary principle.
development of the policies in our
Local Plan document.
southdowns.gov.uk/pmp
                                                                                                                       Fulking Escarpment    ©SDNPA

6   South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                              Climate Change Adaptation Plan   7
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
BUILDING RESILIENCE INTO                                                                           THE ADAPTATION APPROACH
ECOLOGICAL NETWORKS                                                                                (METHODOLOGY)

Biodiversity 2020:          Five components of an ecological network:                              Through our involvement               This identified the principal areas    In terms of a broad methodology
                                                                                                                                         that we considered were necessary      we have sought to:
A strategy for England’s                                                                           in the National Parks                 to address within the report, and
wildlife and ecosystem               1                       To achieve this the strategy
                                                             recommends a spatially based
                                                                                                   England Climate Change                gave us a broad framework within        Identify the key assets and
services (2011) sets out    Core areas of high conservation approach and landscape scale
                                                                                                   Working Group we                      which to structure the report.          features of the National Park.
some priority actions that  value – rare or important        action. The risk and opportunity      benefitted greatly from the           In developing our adaptation
seek to increase resilience habitats or areas that are of    assessment, which is annexed          experience accrued by                 approach, a major requirement           Assess vulnerability of key
                            high ecological value or deliver to this report, sets out these                                              was to undertake a risk assessment
to climate change, and                                       challenges as fully as possible.
                                                                                                   the other National Parks in                                                   assets and features of the
                            important ecosystem services.                                                                                across the breadth of our business.     National Park.
suggests we actively review                                  It also sets out an action plan for   developing their first round          This was developed from our
our responses over time.                                                                           reports. Our approach has
Key to this is the need to           2                       how we might seek to address the
                                                             most significant effects, or make     been informed by the best
                                                                                                                                         current evidence baseline and
                                                                                                                                         sought to identify the impacts upon     Consider sectoral impacts for
                            Corridors or stepping stones –   best use of new opportunities.                                              the key assets of the National          principle land uses such as
establish ‘more coherent                                                                           practice identified as a              Park. It also looked across relevant    farming and forestry.
                            provide a mosaic of habitats
and resilient ecological    allowing species to move between                                       result of this exercise.              sectors that are central to the
networks on land that       core areas and supporting                                                                                    landscape of the National Park
                                                                                                   For the preparation of our            such as farming, forestry and           Assess the impacts based
safeguard ecosystem         ecosystem service function.
                                                                                                   Adaptation Report and Action                                                  upon current climate change
                                                                                                                                         other principal land uses.
services for the benefit                                                                           Plan we have required expertise                                               projections
of wildlife and people’.             3                                                             and input from across the SDNPA
                                                                                                   as well as from external partners.
                                                                                                                                         We have tried to assess the
                                                                                                                                         likely impacts upon Ecosystem
                                      estoration areas – creating
                                     R                                                             This has been achieved through        Services and the functions which        Score these risks and
    Coherent =                       new high value areas that restore                             establishing a ‘task and finish’      are provided by the natural             opportunities based upon
    Has all the necessary elements   habitats and ecosystem service                                group that brought together the       environment that benefit society.       likelihood, impact and risk
    and its value is more than the   functions.                                                    relevant expertise from a wide                                                for the short, medium and
    sum of its component parts.                                                                    constituency. We have also run                                                long term.

    Resilience =                     4                                                             a number of workshop events to
                                                                                                   facilitate joint working.
                                      uffer Zones – that protect core
                                     B                                                                                                                                           Identify current policy responses
    Able to absorb, resist or
                                     areas from adverse impacts in the                             In order to fulfil the requirement                                            and highlight any gaps.
    recover from disturbances
                                     wider environment.                                            to report properly, we initially
    or damage from natural
                                                                                                   scoped the areas that were most
    influences, human activities                                                                                                                                                 Identify adaptation options
                                                                                                   relevant for us to report on.
    (including climate change)
    while continuing to provide
                                     5                                                             An initial exercise was carried                                                (potential delivery/actions).

                                     Sustainable use areas – parts                                 out to map our principal policy
    ecosystem services.
                                     of surrounding land that are                                  responses and delivery within                                                 Assess the acceptability
                                     managed in a sustainable and                                  the South Downs Partnership                                                   of those options, their
                                     wildlife friendly way.                                        Management Plan against the                                                   interdependencies, and the
                                                                                                   focal areas set out in the National                                           potential barriers to delivery.
                                                                                                   Adaptation Programme.

                                                                                                                                                                                 Identify planned actions for the
                                                                                                                                                                                 short, medium and long term
                                                                                                                                                                                 (delivery/actions).

8    South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                       Climate Change Adaptation Plan   9
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
EVIDENCE BASE                                                                                                   NATIONAL LEVEL
                                                                                                                PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2050

                                                                                                                UK Climate Projects                       The UKCIP projections have been
                                                                                                                                                          used to set the baseline range
                                                                                                                (UKCP09) projections                      of possible climatic change used
                                                                                                                suggest that by 2050                      in the assessment of risk and
                                                                                                                we may see hotter, drier                  opportunities in Annex 2. These
                                                                                                                summers, changes in                       are for the short, medium and long
                                                                                                                                                          term horizons which are 2020,
                                                                                                                patterns of rainfall and an               2050 and 2080.
                                                                                                                increase in the impact of
                                                                                                                extreme weather events                    Natural England
                                                                                                                such as flooding.                         Climate Change
                                                                                                                For the period 1960–1990 the
                                                                                                                                                          Vulnerability Mapping
                                                                                                                annual average temperature                Natural England have recently
                                                                                                                for the UK has increased.                 developed a mapping tool that
                                                                                                                Projected increases in mean               identifies environmental assets
                                                                                                                temperature could be 2.8°C or             which are most vulnerable to
                                                                                                                greater, along with a decrease            climate change. The South Downs
   The SDNPA is looking        The report was developed              This was a theme that was further          in average seasonal rainfall of           was one of the areas included
                                                                                                                                                                                                Rainbow on Iron Age fort
                               in close collaboration with a         developed in the Partnership               19%. Though summer rainfall               within the first pilots of this
   to establish itself as a    wide range of organisations           Management Plan the following
                                                                                                                                                                                                near Clanfield ©Warren Peters
                                                                                                                varies dramatically the overall           work and this Climate Change
   strongly evidence based     and individuals. It was a             year. An online version of the             trend has been a decrease.                Vulnerability Mapping data is
   organisation. In 2012       key document to enable the            State of the Park Report can be            There is reasonable confidence            available for us to use. This will
   we published our first      Authority and our partners to         found here:                                that the greatest impact of the           address many of our evidence
                               tackle the complex issues facing                                                 change in summer precipitation            requirements but will require some
   State of the Park Report.   the South Downs National
                                                                     snpr.southdowns.gov.uk/files/
                                                                                                                                                          work in-house to ensure we can
                                                                     default.html                               will be in the south of England.
   This sought to capture a    Park. The issues it highlighted                                                                                            use the tool effectively to support
                                                                                                                By contrast the trend for winter
   picture of the National     were the basis for developing         Evidence gaps remain,
                                                                                                                rainfall for the last 30 years has
                                                                                                                                                          the reporting process.
                               the planned outcomes and              particularly around the long term
   Park as it was at that                                            or cumulative effects of climate           been for it to fall in heavy events.
                               policies with our first Partnership
   point, and to provide a     Management Plan.                      change on ecological networks.             There is reasonable confidence that
   baseline against which                                            Where these have been identified           these high seasonal rainfall events
                               It is a comprehensive document                                                   will increase, with a corresponding
   future changes could                                              they have been included within
                               that pulls together a range of                                                   increase in flood events. In winter the
                                                                     the action plan in Annex 3. The
   be measured.                data and evidence across the
                                                                     intention would be to prioritise           mean temperature increase could
                               sectors. This was an important                                                   be around 2.2°C with an increase
                                                                     these through the setting of our
                               foundation document and the                                                      of average seasonal rainfall of 16%
                                                                     research priorities and work with
                               first that started to develop and                                                across the south east region.
                                                                     academic/research partners to
                               introduce ecosystem services
                                                                     address these gaps.
                               and benefits as being key to
                               delivering our purposes and duty.

                                                                              Iping Common     ©John Dominick

10 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                         Climate Change Adaptation Plan   11
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Families at Durleighmarsh farm
                                                                                                                               beetles has also been lengthening.
                                                                                             and development of the woodland

                                                                                                                               temperature sensitive species such
                                                                                             canopy as a result of advancing

                                                                                                                               and the arrival of migrant birds.
                                                                                             Ground flora in woodland may

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Climate Change Adaptation Plan
                                                                                                                               The breeding season for many
                                                                                             be impacted by earlier leafing

                                                                                                                               as butterflies, dragonflies and
                                                                                                                               frogs spawning, birds nesting
                                                                                                                               seen their life cycles advance
                                                                                                                               in recent decades including
                                                                                                                               Many animal groups have
               CHANGES ON KEY NATIONAL
               PARK ASSETS AND INTERESTS

                                                                                             seasonal events.

                                                                                                                                                                              Phenology is the study of

                                                                                                                                                                           seasonal and inter-annual
                                                                                                                                                                           periodic plant and animal
                                                                                                                                                                           life cycle events and how

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ©SDNPA/Mischa Haller
                                                                                                                                                                           variations in climate, as
                                                                                                                                                                           these are influenced by

                                                                                                                                                                           well as habitat factors
                                                                                                                                                                           (such as elevation).
               IMPACTS AND OBSERVED

                                                                                                                                                                           2
                                                                                             species so affecting the interactions

                                                                                                                                              per decade and the pollen season
                                                                                                                                              has been between 2.5 and 4 days
                                                                                                                                              and animals. There has also been
                                                                                             events such as flowering, budding

                                                                                                                                              an observed earlier occurrence of

                                                                                                                                              starts (of average) 10 days earlier
                                                                                             warmer springs in recent decades

                                                                                                                                              events. The timing of such events
                                                                                             which has meant that biological

                                                                                             between species (LWEC, 2013).
                                                                                             been occurring earlier. This rate
                                                                                             There has been a trend towards

                                                                                                                                              spring seasonal events in plants

                                                                                                                                              in plants is shifting, with 78% of
                                                                                                                                              occurrence of autumn seasonal
                                                                                                                                              In terrestrial ecosystems there is

                                                                                                                                              advance of spring and summer
                                                                                                                                              1971 and 2000. The average
                                                                                             and egg laying/hatching have

                                                                                                                                              showing an advance between
                                                                                                                                              leafing and flowering records
                                                                                             of change may vary between

                                                                                                                                              a corresponding shift in later
                                                   Observed changes in species phenology2

                                                                                                                                              than in the 1960s.
                                                                                             days. Six of the ten longest growing
                                                                                             days longer then the climatological
                                                                                             season has been an average of 29

                                                                                                                                                                    frost – where the temperature dips
                                                                                             According to the Central England

                                                                                             longest 336 days being recorded
                                                                                             Climate (CET) record, during the

                                                                                                                                                                    1961–1990 (Met Office, 2016).
                                                                                             within the last 30 years, with the
                                                                                             period 2006–2015 the average

                                                                                                                                                                    days for the period 2006–2015
                                                                                                                                                                    The average number of air frost
                                                                                             last ten years the plant growing

                                                                                                                                                                    another climatic trend, which is
                                                                                             the period 1861 and 1890 the

                                                                                                                                                                    below 0° – has been declining.
                                                                                             average was 244 days, for the

                                                                                             growing season has been 280

                                                                                                                                                                    that the number of days of air
                                                                                             period 1961–1990. Between

                                                                                             seasons recorded have fallen

                                                                                                                                                                    has dropped by 16.6% when
                                                                                             in 2014 (Met Office, 2016)
                                                                                                                                                                    The CET series also reveals

                                                                                                                                                                    compared with the period
     PRIMARY HABITATS VULNERABLE
     TO CLIMATE CHANGE                                                                      Primary
                                                                                            Primary Habitats
                                                                                                Primary      Vulnerable
                                                                                                        Habitats
                                                                                                    Habitats            to
                                                                                                                        to Climate
                                                                                                                 Vulnerable
                                                                                                             Vulnerable            Change
                                                                                                                            to Climate
                                                                                                                           Climate     Change
                                                                                                                                   Change
                                                                                            Primary Habitats Vulnerable to Climate Change
                                                                                            Primary Habitats Vulnerable to Climate Change
                                                                                                                                                                              SSouth
                                                                                                                                                                                 outhDowns
                                                                                                                                                                                South
                                                                                                                                                                                South  Downs
                                                                                                                                                                                       South
                                                                                                                                                                                      Downs
                                                                                                                                                                                      Downs      National
                                                                                                                                                                                             National
                                                                                                                                                                                             Downs
                                                                                                                                                                                             National
                                                                                                                                                                                             National
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Park boundary
                                                                                                                                                                                                    National
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Park boundary
                                                                                                                                                                                                           boundary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Deciduous
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Park boundary Deciduous woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Deciduous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Deciduous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Deciduous        woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     woodland
                                                                                                                                                                    Main   Park
                                                                                                                                                                    Main Habit
                                                                                                                                                                          Main
                                                                                                                                                                         Habit
                                                                                                                                                                            South boundary
                                                                                                                                                                               Habit
                                                                                                                                                                                  Downs National Park boundary                                                     Deciduous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lowland   woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           calcareous grassland
                                                                                                                                                                    Main Habit                                                                                    Lowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lowland    calcareous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LowlandLowland  calcareous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           calcareous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           calcareous  grasslandgrassland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       grasslandgrassland
                                                                                                                                                                    Main
                                                                                                                                                                    Main    Habitat
                                                                                                                                                                            Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                            South
                                                                                                                                                                            Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                         Habit
                                                                                                                                                                            Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                                    and
                                                                                                                                                                                    and floodplain
                                                                                                                                                                                  Downs
                                                                                                                                                                                    and
                                                                                                                                                                                          National
                                                                                                                                                                                    Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                                        floodplain
                                                                                                                                                                                        floodplain
                                                                                                                                                                                                   grazing
                                                                                                                                                                                                   grazing
                                                                                                                                                                                                   grazing
                                                                                                                                                                                                           marsh
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Park boundary
                                                                                                                                                                                            and floodplain grazing marsh
                                                                                                                                                                                                           marsh
                                                                                                                                                                                                           marsh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Deciduous woodland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lowland calcareous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           heathland grassland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LowlandLowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Lowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lowland         heathland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             heathland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           heathland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           heathland
                                                                                                                                                                    Main Habit
                                                                                                                                                                           CCoastal
                                                                                                                                                                              oastal
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal
                                                                                                                                                                                     andand    floodplain
                                                                                                                                                                                         floodplain
                                                                                                                                                                                     saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                     Coastal        grazing marsh
                                                                                                                                                                                             saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                     saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                     saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lowland calcareous grassland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lowland heathland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                meadows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LowlandLowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           meadowsmeadows
                                                                                                                                                                            grazing
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal andmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                         floodplain grazing marsh                                                 Lowland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lowland   meadows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           meadows
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                                     vegetated
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal Coastal    shingle
                                                                                                                                                                                             vegetated
                                                                                                                                                                                     vegetated  shingle shingle                                                         Lowland heathland
                                                                                                                                                                               Coastal vegetated shingle                                                                Lowland  meadows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Traditional orchard orchard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Traditional orchard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               orchard
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal    saltmarsh
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal saltmarsh                                                                    Traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Traditional    orchard
                                                                                                                                                                             Coastal vegetated shingle                                                                  Lowland meadows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Woodpasture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Woodpasture orchard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and parkland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Woodpasture   and parkland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           parkland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Woodpasture and parkland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Woodpasture      and parkland
                                                                                                                                                                             CCoastal
                                                                                                                                                                                oastal    vegetated
                                                                                                                                                                                       vegetated shingle shingle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Traditional orchard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Woodpasture and parkland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Woodpasture and parkland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   South Downs National Park
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                                                                                                                                                                                                            Crown©copyright and
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         rights 2016 Ordnance  Survey
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Crown copyright
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  copyright          and database
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                database          rights
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                                                                                                                                                                                                          © Crown copyright and database rights 2016 Ordnance Survey 100050083
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
Impacts upon
                                                                                     local communities
                                                                                     Flooding events increasingly affect
                                                                                     the lives of many communities.
                                                                                     Along with the risks to life and
                                                                                     property there are also impacts
                                                                                     upon health and wellbeing,
                                                                                     social cohesion and disruption
                                                                                     to essential services.
                                                                                     Extremes or increases in summer
                                                                                     temperatures can lead to increased
                                                                                     mortality and morbidity in elderly
                                                                                     or vulnerable groups of the
                                                                                     population. Wellbeing decreases
                                                                                     as a result of extreme cold spells
                                                                                     or heat waves that exceed seasonal
 Southease Village       ©SDNPA/AndrewPickettPhoto.com
                                                                                     or comfortable temperatures. Heat
                                                                                     waves over the last decade have
                                                                                     caused thousands of premature
Observed changes in storm severity                                                   deaths across central Europe. The
and drought conditions.                                                              length and intensity of heat waves
                                                                                     is projected to increase in the
The incidence and severity of                  With the advent of warmer, wetter     long-term. Cold related mortality
drought conditions seems to be                 winters there may be increased        is projected to decrease due to
increasing across Europe and the               risk of flooding of properties and    changes in seasonal climatic
UK. The south of England was                   agricultural land in river valleys    conditions and improved housing
impacted by three major drought                and low lying areas.                  and social conditions.
events in 2005, 2011 and 2012.
                                               Average UK insured losses of          Exposure to ground-level ozone
While public water supply has
                                               damage to property through wind       is currently estimated to cause
precedence over other uses, there
have been restrictions in place to
                                               storms are now at £620 million per    around 20,000 deaths per year         Impact on water resources
                                               annum. Extreme storm events such      Europe wide. Future projected
manage demand.                                                                                                             Abstraction of water from           This is well above the national
                                               as those in 1987, 1990, 2001,         climate change is expected to
The insurance costs from natural               2007 and 2016 may become              cause an increase in ground level     within the National Park            average of 159 litres per
disasters such as floods and storm             more frequent. This will result in    ozone concentrations, though this     provides a water supply for         person, per day. The high
events have increased and are                  a loss of trees, disruption to        may be off-set to some degree         around 1.2 million people.          demand is putting increased
projected to increase further in the           transport and other public services   by reductions in future emissions.    Groundwater abstraction totals      pressure on natural resources as
future. With the projected increase            and damage to property.                                                     around 215,190 litres per           it reduces the amount available
                                                                                     The number of heating degree
in the intensity and frequency of                                                                                          year, of which 92% is to meet       for the environment. This is one
                                               Average rainfall across the           days, that is the number of days
extreme storm events this trend                                                                                            the demand for the public           of the causes of poor ecological
                                               National Park is currently around     that communities are likely to
is likely to continue in the future.                                                                                       water supply. Surface water         (41% currently failing) and
                                               807mm per annum in the west           require to heat their homes,
Increases in population, economic                                                                                          abstraction totals a further        chemical status (45.4% currently
                                               to 879 mm per annum in the            has declined by an average of
wealth and development on flood                                                                                            125,514 million litres per year.    failing) of many of the streams
                                               east. The recharge of the chalk       16 days since the 1980s. This
prone areas are also a contributing                                                                                        A majority of this (59%) is for     and rivers in the National Park.
                                               aquifers occurs during the            reduced demand for heating is
factor to these increasing costs.                                                                                          fish farming, with a further 29%    Increased drought conditions
                                               autumn and winter and is the          projected to continue. Conversely
                                                                                                                           for the public water supply.        and the potential for lower
The cost of damage to UK                       abstraction for the public water      we may see an increased
                                                                                                                                                               levels of aquifer recharge in the
properties through flooding has                supply. Changes to seasonal           energy demand for cooling of          The population that is reliant on
                                                                                                                                                               autumn or winter may further
reached around £1.3 billion per                rain patterns and evaporation         buildings during the summer.          water sourced from the South
                                                                                                                                                               compound this issue.
annum. More extreme rainfall                   rates may affect the ability of                                             Downs National Park uses
events, such as in 2007, 2009                  the aquifer to recharge fully.                                              an average of 170 litres per
and 2012 have caused significant                                                                                           person, per day.
disruption and damage to property.                                                                                                                                                                     River Itchen    ©SDNPA/Sam Moore

14   South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                     Climate Change Adaptation Plan   15
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
Observed impacts
                                                                                                                         from invasive species
                                                                                                                         and pathogens3
                                                                                                                         The pattern of introduction for
                                                                                                                         non-native species has remained
                                                                                                                         consistent, however climatic
                                                                                                                         change is favouring the spread
Iping Common with                                                                                                        of some species once they have
flowering gorse and heather                                                                                              established. There are a number of
©Nigel Symington                                                                                                         natural species colonisations that
                                                                                                                         can be attributed to warming such
                                                                                                                         as the southern emerald damselfly.
                                                                                                                         The risk posed by invasive species,
                                                                                                                         pests and pathogens may be
Observed changes on habitats, species abundance and distribution                                                         increased by an increase in
                                                                                                                         climatic compatibility, especially
The balance of tree species in         The south east has seen a notable        Around 20% of habitats and               with milder winters.
our woodland and the wider             increase in risk on the UK wildfire      12% of species are potentially                                                 River Itchen at Ovington, Hampshire      ©SDNPA/Guy Edwardes
                                                                                                                         Increases in temperature has
landscape may change due to            index. The trend towards hotter,         threatened by projected climate          also favoured some species that
some species, such as beech,           drier summers may see an increase        change impacts. The rate at which        are the vector for disease. The       Observed impacts on riparian
being more sensitive to drought        in fire risk on certain habitat types,   change may occur is likely to
and sun-scorch. More drought           particularly lowland heath which         exceed the ability of many species
                                                                                                                         biting midge Culicoides imicola       and freshwater ecosystems
                                                                                                                         is typically a southern European
tolerant trees, such as ash, may       is also sensitive to reductions          to adapt or move, this is more           species but it has been extending     UK river temperatures have seen        Climate change is predicted to
be impacted by the spread of tree      in precipitation and may, over           likely to be the case in habitats that   its range north in recent years and   increases broadly in line with those   have a significant impact on water
pathogens like Phytopthera, that       time, be replaced by dry, acid           are small, isolated or fragmented.       as a result it has contributed to     of air temperatures, and in some       within the South Downs National
affect the health and survival of      grasslands.                                                                       the spread of bluetongue virus in
                                                                                Species that are able to expand                                                freshwater ecosystems there have       Park. Groundwater fed rivers
mature trees.                                                                                                            UK livestock. Climate change will
                                       Observed changes in the range            and increase in abundance are                                                  been observed changes in life cycle    such as the River Meon could see
Hedgerows are vulnerable to            of some animal species are               generally those with a relatively        increase the risk of other diseases   events. There is also evidence of      reduced flows of between 5–10%.
drought and changes in climatic        consistent with recorded increases       warm, southerly distribution. Those      and pathogens expanding their         some declines of fish species as       Rivers within clay catchment areas
conditions, such as hotter, drier      of temperature.                          that are losing their climate space      range into the UK.                    a result of these changes in water     such as the River Ouse could
summers which may lead to a                                                     in the UK are generally those                                                  temperature. Phytoplankton and         see its summer flows reduced by
                                       There is good national data to
decrease in diversity of hedgerow                                               typical of colder, more upland                                                 zooplankton blooms are occurring       30%. This will impact on the water
                                       highlight this trend for a range
species and associated flora. This                                              areas. Genetic adaptation will help                                            earlier, the incidence of species      resource available, as well as
                                       of species groups including birds,
will also reduce their effectiveness                                            some species to expand their range                                             (including toxic species) that         water quality due to less dilution
                                       butterflies and dragonflies.
in terms of proving habitat                                                     by increasing their ability for                                                originate from warmer regions is       of pollution and discharges from
connectivity within the landscape.     Data shows that most southerly           dispersal, for example the brown                                               also increasing.                       waste water treatment works. This
                                       distributed animal species have          argus butterfly has started to use                                                                                    could be compounded by the
Some chalk grassland species                                                                                                                                   In terms of water flows there has
                                       been subject to a northerly drift in     a new food plant, wild geranium                                                                                       effects of soil erosion and turbidity
are more sensitive to drought and                                                                                                                              been a general observed trend
                                       distribution over the last 20–25         (LWEC, 2013).                                                                                                         on water quality and ecology.
heat stress than others. Overall                                                                                                                               since the 1960s towards increased
                                       years. This average shift for this
species composition can change,                                                 There has been a marked decline                                                river flows during winter and
                                       time period has been between 31
with conditions favouring some                                                  in wildfowl and wader species in the                                           decreased river flows in summer,
                                       –60 km, representing an average
grasses. Sites under 5Ha are                                                    UK with populations of the Bewick                                              though this is subject to some
                                       rate of 13.7 to 24.8km per
more vulnerable as they have                                                    swan declining by 44% between                                                  seasonal and regional variation.
                                       decade. Altitudinal margins have
less resilience to change so small                                              1997/98 and 2007/08. They are
                                       also shifted upwards by around
isolated fragments of habitat                                                   now overwintering further to the
                                       25 metres.
may be lost.                                                                    north and east of their range.           3
                                                                                                                           An infectious agent such
                                                                                                                         as a virus, bacterium,
                                                                                                                         fungus or micro-organism
                                                                                                                         that can cause disease or
                                                                                                                         impact upon species health.

16    South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                            Climate Change Adaptation Plan   17
Observed impacts upon agricultural                                              Observed impacts
                                                                                         production and systems                                                          upon sea levels
                                                                                         In terms of agriculture there has       The economic impact of soil             and coastal zones
                                                                                         been a northward shift on the           degradation in England is currently
                                                                                                                                                                         Tide gauge measurements show
                                                                                         suitable range for growing              estimated at between £250 and
                                                                                                                                                                         a mean sea-level rise of around
                                                                                         several crops.                          £350 million per annum. Increased
                                                                                                                                                                         1.7mm per year as fairly constant
                                                                                                                                 cycles of drought and flood are
                                                                                         The growing season for a number                                                 over the course of the 20th century.
                                                                                                                                 projected which will impact upon
                                                                                         of crop types has extended by                                                   Remote sensing data from satellites
                                                                                                                                 soil condition. Changes in soil
                                                                                         an average of 11.4 days for the                                                 have shown an increase in this
                                                                                                                                 micro-biology may impact on its
                                                                                         period 1992 to 2008 (EEA, 2012).                                                rise to around 3mm per year
                                                                                                                                 fertility and decline of crop yields.
                                                                                         The harvest dates for cereals and                                               in the last 20 years. This is not
                                                                                                                                 A greater level and rate of surface
                                                                                         some perennial crops has been                                                   uniform and some locations, and
                                                                                                                                 run-off may increase soil erosion
                                                                                         advancing by around two days per                                                corresponding vertical movement
                                                                                                                                 and nutrient loss on some steeper
                                                                                         decade. The yields for some crops                                               of land, are experiencing much
                                                                                                                                 cultivated slopes.
                                                                                         such as wheat are falling across                                                greater average rises in sea level.
                                                                                         northern Europe, while yields of        The UK has experienced a long-
                                                                                                                                                                         On the south coast the observed
                                                                                         maize are increasing in part due        term trend in warmer growing
                                                                                                                                                                         sea level rise between 1970 and
                                                                                         to better suitability to changing       conditions since the 1970s. In the
                                                                                                                                                                         2000 has been around 50mm
                                                                                         climatic conditions. In the south       South Downs this has resulted in
                                                                                                                                                                         and now averages around 3mm
                                                                                         there has been an increase in the       a larger area of land under vine
                                                                                                                                                                         per year. If this trend continues,
                                                                                         demand for water for irrigation and     production. If this warming trend
                                                                                                                                                                         combined with an increase
                                                                                         reduced yields due to heat waves        continues as projected, crops that
                                                                                                                                                                         in seasonal storm events, the
                                                                                         and droughts.                           are better adapted to warmer
                                                                                                                                                                         effectiveness of coastal defences
                                                                                                                                 climatic conditions such as fennel
                                                                                         Since 1990, southern England                                                    may be reduced. This will increase
                                                                                                                                 and soya bean may become
                                                                                         has experienced an increased                                                    the risk of coastal flooding,
                                                                                                                                 important commercial crops.
                                                                                         trend in soil moisture deficit, with                                            and the sea level rise may also
                                                                                         a corresponding increase in water       An extended growing season may          affect the natural functioning
                                                                                         abstraction for irrigation. In spring   offer the potential for improved        of tidal rivers and estuaries.
                                                                                         2011 the region experienced much        grassland productivity, increased
                                                                                         drier than average conditions,          yields for some better adapted
                                                                                         causing problems for farmers            crops and the potential for
                                                                                         and land managers. If this trend        double-cropping.
                                                                                         continues we may see a decline in
                                                                                         yields or loss of some crops due to
                                                                                         drought conditions.

                                                        Impacts on cultural
                                                        heritage assets                                                                                                       Field above Plumpton © SDNPA
                                                        Historical assets such as
                                                        barrows, hill forts and buried
                                                        archaeology are sensitive
                                                        to rainfall, erosion and
                                                        encroachment by trees and
                                                        vegetation. If current and
                                                        projected trends continue
                                                        these features will be
                                                        adversely affected.
South Downs Way, Clayton Windmills   ©SDNPA/Sam Moore

18 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                  Climate Change Adaptation Plan   19
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES                                                                                                   Our current Partnership
                                                                                                                     Management Plan (2014–2019)
                                                                                                                                                           develop an integrated approach
                                                                                                                                                           to managing land, water and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                 The climate change adaptation
                                                                                                                                                                                                 options considered within this

AND CLIMATE CHANGE
                                                                                                                     recognises that the conservation      living resources of the National      report, and the actions proposed,
                                                                                                                     and enhancement of these              Park. It also seeks to promote        have potential to deliver
                                                                                                                     ecosystem derived ‘goods and          their conservation and sustainable    multiple benefits. For example,
                                                                                                                     services’ is fundamental to the       use, to ensure that these essential   new woodland planting would
                                                                                                                     pursuit of National Park Purposes.    natural services are protected and    clearly have a positive impact on
                                                                                                                     The plan seeks to deliver a wide      enhanced now and for the future.      biodiversity, but could also benefit
                                                                                                                     range of ecosystem services and                                             landscape character, recreation, air
                                                                                                                                                           As a result of this we have applied
                                                                                                                     benefits at a landscape scale.                                              quality, water infiltration and help
                                                                                                                                                           ecosystem service thinking in
                                                                                                                                                                                                 prevent soil erosion.
     Ecosystem Services are               Key message from the NEA that                                              It seeks to highlight the important   relation to the assessment of
                                          are relevant to this plan are:                                             relationship between people, the      climate change risks and assessing    Where possible we are proposing
     the services that the
                                          n	The natural world, its                                                  landscape and the benefits nature     options. This report includes an      to move towards naturally
     natural environment                                                                                             provides for society.                 assessment of the likely impacts      functioning systems which in most
                                            biodiversity and its
     delivers for society.                  ecosystems are critically                                                                                      of climate change on a range of       cases offer the best adaptation
                                                                                                                     The SDNPA has sought to embed
     They are the functions                 important to our wellbeing                                               the Ecosystems Approach across
                                                                                                                                                           Ecosystem Services (see Annex         solutions and deliver multiple
                                                                                                                                                           1). This has also influenced the      Ecosystem Service benefits.
     or processes that                      and economic prosperity,                                                 all of its work.
                                            but they are consistently                                                                                      selections of options within the
     ecosystems support                                                                                              In terms of its plan making and       Action Plan in Annex 3.
                                            undervalued in conventional
     and provide a range of                 economic analyses and                                                    policies, the SDNPA has sought to
     goods and services that                decision making.
     we benefit from.                                                                                                Diagram 4: Ecosystem Services Delivered in the South Downs National Park
                                          n	Ecosystems and ecosystem
                                            services, and the ways people
     The Millennial Ecosystem               benefit from them, have
     Assessment (2005) identified           changed markedly in the past
     four main categories of                60 years, driven by changes
     Ecosystem Services:                    in society.
     Provisioning Services                n	The UK’s ecosystems are
     such as food, raw materials,           currently delivering services
     energy and fresh water.                well, but others (30%) are in
     Regulating Services                    long-term decline.
     such as air or climate regulation    n	Population growth and
     and purification of water.             climate change are likely
     Cultural Services                      to increase pressure on
     such as recreational, heritage         ecosystem services
     or experiential values.                in the future.
     Supporting Services                  n	Actions taken and decisions
     such as habitats and nutrient           made now will have
     or water cycling.                       consequences far into the
                                             future for ecosystem services
     The National Ecosystem
                                             and human wellbeing. It is
     Assessment (NEA) (2011) was
                                             important these consequences
     the first attempt to assess the
                                             are understood and we make
     full range of benefits that nature
                                             the best choices for present
     provides. The assessment
                                             and future generations.
     also tried to consider how
     they had been impacted               n	We need to move to a more
     historically, and how they may         integrated approach to
     be affected by future changes.         ecosystem management.
                                                                                           Succisa pratensis,
                                                                             Devil’s-bit scabious ©Nigel Symington

20    South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                       Climate Change Adaptation Plan   21
ASSESSMENT OF THE
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Cuckmere Haven        ©Sam Moore

The risks and opportunities from climate
change have been considered under                        Built Environment                 Natural                           Farming                            Recreation
the following broad headings and                         Development Control, Spatial      Environment                       and Forestry                       and Tourism
cover the range of natural and cultural                  Planning and Infrastructure.
                                                                                           Species diversity and habitats,   Agriculture, Food Security, Land   Rights of Way and Access,
assets of the National Park, principle                   n	Flood and coastal erosion      Water, Soils and Resource         Management, Plantation and         Visitor and Recreational
land uses, and the core business of the                    risk management                 Protection.                       Managed Woodland.                  Infrastructure, Visitor Use
                                                                                                                                                                and Numbers, Transport.
Authority itself. These have been based                  n	Spatial planning               n	Building ecological            n	Building resilience
on the headings used in the UK climate                   n	Increasing adaptive capacity      resilience to the impacts         in the agricultural sector      n	Sustainable tourism
                                                                                              of climate change
change adaption plan (2013).                             n	Making homes and                                                 n	Effective water management      n	Making recreational
                                                           communities more resilient      n	Developing adaptive                                                  infrastructure more resilient
The assessment of risks and opportunities from climate                                                                       n	Resilience in forestry
                                                                                              capacity at Landscape Scale
change is presented in Annex 2 – Assessment of the       n	Infrastructure networks                                                                             n	Opportunities to diversify
                                                                                                                             n	Resilience to pests
principal climate change risks and opportunities.           (energy, water and             n	Preparing for and                                                   the rural economy
                                                                                                                               and disease
                                                            transport etc.)                  accommodating
                                                                                                                                                                n	South Downs Shared Identity
                                                                                             inevitable change               n	Innovation and evidence
                                                         n	Infrastructure management

                                                         Landscape                         Historic                          Community                          NPA Business
                                                         Geology and landform,             Environment                       and Economy                        Continuity
                                                         Landscape Character,
                                                                                           Historic Buildings and            Local Economy, Community           n	Forward planning for
                                                         Landscape Features,
                                                                                           settlements, Archaeology,         Life and Resilience.                 operational impacts
                                                         Land use and Settlements.
                                                                                           Historic Landscapes.
                                                                                                                             n	Healthy and resilient           n	SDNPA property and estate
                                                         n	Building ecological
                                                                                           n	Building resilience to the       Communities
                                                            resilience to the impacts                                                                           n	Staff welfare and practices
                                                                                             impacts of climate change
                                                            of climate change                                                n	Climate resilience
                                                                                           n	Adapting to prepare               in the health and
                                                         n	Adaptive capacity
                                                                                             for inevitable change              social care systems
                                                            at Landscape Scale
                                                                                                                             n	Vulnerable groups
                                                         n	Preparing for and
                                                           accommodating                                                     n	Emergency services
                                                           inevitable change                                                    and community resilience

22   South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                     Climate Change Adaptation Plan   23
SUMMARY OF HIGH RISK                                                        INTERDEPENDENCIES,
IMPACTS OVER SHORT,                                                         BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM
                                                                            Challenges of working Ecological                                             Organisational
                                                                            at a landscape scale  There are significant impacts on                       The South Downs National Park
                                                                                                                  species, habitats and the natural      covers an area of 1653km² and
                                                                            The South Downs National              assets of the South Downs. In          has the largest resident population
                                                                                                                  some cases the speed of change         of any UK National Park. There
                                                                            Park is a landscape that has
                                                                                                                  may be greater than the ability        are 15 constituent local authorities
                                                                            been heavily influenced               of species or habitats to fully        and a broad partnership of
                                                                            and shaped by farming                 adapt or shift their range. Though     statutory bodies and interest
                                                                            and other land uses. Many             evidence is being accrued, we          groups that have been brought
                                                                                                                  do not fully understand the full       together around the delivery of
                                                                            of the key risks associated           ecological impacts of climate          the Partnership Management Plan
                                                                            with climate change relate            change. In the longer term there       (PMP). The National Park Authority
                                                                            to agriculture and land use.          are challenges in deciding which       will need to work very effectively
                                                                                                                  species and habitats it is realistic   at building and maintaining these
                                                                            There are significant challenges      to conserve and enhance, and           cross-sectoral partnerships to
                                                                            in terms of influencing land use      which need to be supported to          deliver the action plan, and the
   A summary table of the main risks/opportunities                          decisions and in delivering the       adapt or shift their range – or        outcomes of the PMP.
   is included in Annex 2.                                                  necessary adaptation responses        face loss.
                                                                            at landscape scale. The National
   This sets out the main             These have been based around          Park Authority needs to work
                                      the projections presented
   vulnerabilities to climate         within the UK Climate Impact
                                                                            very closely with farmers and         Funding                                Political
                                                                            land managers in and around
   change impacts relating            Projections (2009). More recent       the National Park. to develop         Budgets across the public              Shifts in political support and short
   to the key natural and             projections were not available        adaptation responses that also        sector are declining and under         term horizons mean that often
   cultural assets of the             for the preparation of this report,   support the economic viability of     pressure. Funding adaptation           climate change and the risks it
                                      being due sometime in 2017.
   National Park. For each                                                  farming and other rural businesses.   actions at the necessary scale,        presents are not given the priority
                                      Recent review of the evidence                                               and over the long term, will           they should be in terms of national
   broad heading the risks            supports the likelihood that                                                present a significant challenge.       policy. There is also a wide diversity
   and opportunities have             observed changes are likely to                                              When actions are required              of public attitudes to climate
   been scored using a                be within the central estimate for                                          from a broad range of partners         change and whether it is being
   simple RAG scoring                 2020 and beyond. In terms of                                                and organisations it will be           driven by human activity. There
                                      the South Downs specifically, the                                           necessary to develop joint             is a need to present the scientific
   system (low to high) for           highest risks are those relating                                            funding packages. This may be          evidence in such a way that it
   short, medium and long             to water, land management,                                                  difficult in light of competing        gains wider public acceptance.
   term projections.                  flooding and impacts on the                                                 corporate priorities but there are     There is also a lack of awareness
                                      biodiversity and habitats.                                                  opportunities to work together         of the impacts which also limits
                                                                                                                  to achieve co-financing from           the opportunity to make the case
                                                                                                                  existing public budgets, private       for action and build capability.
                                                                                                                  sector finance and other national
Looking over the Cuckmere River   ©SDNPA/Mischa Haller
                                                                                                                  funding sources.

24 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                  Climate Change Adaptation Plan   25
St Catherine’s Hill, nr. Winchester
                                                                                                                                                                                                    and Cheriton ©Sam Moore

NEXT STEPS: IMPLEMENTING &
                                                                                                           Diagram 5: Climate-smart planning cycle
                                                                                                           Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles

REVIEWING THE ACTION PLAN
                                                                                                           into Practice (National Wildlife Federation, 2014).

 The action plan that          This is well beyond the current        Over the longer term other risks
                                                                                                                    Review goals,
                               Partnership Management Plan            may materialise that were not                                        Implement actions            Define planning
 appears in Annex 3 is         (PMP) cycle, and through to the        considered or planned for. It is
                                                                                                                    objectives and         and monitor results         purpose and scope
 based upon the best                                                                                                  strategies
                               end of the expected lifecycle of       considered sensible to review this
 current evidence – both       the current Local Plan document.       in tandem with the PMP cycle so
 observed and projected        In many cases these actions will       that planned adaptation responses
                               need to be carried forward into        can be built into our delivery
 – and aims to set a           subsequent Management Plan             framework.
 long-term horizon for                                                                                                           Evaluate and select                            Assess climate impact
                               and Corporate Plan cycles.
                                                                      In terms of delivering climate                             adaptation options                              and vulnerabilities
 planned actions. Many of      In the short term the risk             change adaptation at a truly
 the risks and opportunities   assessment and action plan will        landscape scale, we will also
 identified through this       help to inform the review and          need to look beyond our
                               set priorities for the next PMP        boundary. The South Downs
 adaptation report require     (post 2019). The action plan will      National Park Authority will look                                                                  Review goals,
 actions over the medium       also inform the development of         to work collaboratively with the                                      Identify possible
                                                                                                                                                                         objectives and
 to long term (up to 2030      the next 5 Year Corporate Plan         other Protected Landscapes and                                       adaptation options
                                                                                                                                                                           strategies
 and beyond).                  (2016–2021) for impacts that           adjoining Areas of Outstanding
                               relate to business continuity,         Natural Beauty. This will help to
                               property and estate or staff welfare   develop a strategic approach
                               for the National Park Authority        and deliver adaptation responses
                               specifically.                          across organisational, sectoral
                                                                      and geographic boundaries. By                                                    Review vulnerabilities
                               Looking ahead, the risk
                                                                      using the collective power of the
                               assessment and action plan will
                                                                      protected landscapes, and their
                               also need to be kept under review
                                                                      statutory Management Plans as
                               as climate change impacts that
                                                                      a delivery mechanism, we can
                               have been considered may
                                                                      face up to the challenges and
                               occur over a shorter timescale
                                                                      opportunities that climate
                               than originally projected.
                                                                      change presents.

26 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                  Climate Change Adaptation Plan   27
ANNEX 1 – ECOSYSTEM                                                                                                                 Function
                                                                                                                                    Nutrient
                                                                                                                                    Cycling
                                                                                                                                                    Ecosystem Service
                                                                                                                                                    Plants, animals and
                                                                                                                                                    micro-organisms are
                                                                                                                                                                               Likely Impact
                                                                                                                                                                               Extreme cycles of drought
                                                                                                                                                                               and flooding will increase
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Adaptation Actions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   n Encourage land management practices that
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   maintain the structural and microbial condition

SERVICE IMPACTS                                                                                                                                     essential to the natural
                                                                                                                                                    cycle of nutrients
                                                                                                                                                    and help maintain
                                                                                                                                                                               nutrient loss through surface
                                                                                                                                                                               run-off and change soil
                                                                                                                                                                               microbial activity. Soil drying
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of soils and maximise its ability to store water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and nutrients.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   n Promote soil conservation measures
Supporting Services                                                                                                                                 soil and water             and resulting changes in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   especially in areas that are prone to erosion
                                                                                                                                                    quality. Increased         agricultural practices may
Functions provided by ecosystems that underpin all of the other services.                                                                                                                                          or may be more susceptible to drought
                                                                                                                                                    levels of nutrients        impact on its ability to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   conditions.
                                                                                                                                                    such as nitrates and       sequester carbon. Loss of soil
 Function          Ecosystem Service        Likely Impact                       Adaptation Actions                                                  phosphates from            condition will affect its ability   n Encourage measures that retain soils in situ
                                                                                                                                                    sewage and fertilisers     to store water and nutrients        such as contour ploughing, minimum or ‘no
 Soil Formation    Soil is formed by        Higher temperatures and             n Maintain good soil structure and condition                        can result in poor         which will affect soil fertility    tillage and long term grass lays. Promote the
                   the interaction          repeated cycles of drought          by maintaining high organic matter levels                           water quality.             and yields. Excessive nutrients     use of green manures and cover crops.
                   between plants,          and flooding will increase the      to help retain water and nutrients in the soil.                                                loads may also be carried into
                   micro-organisms          risk of soil erosion. Climatic      Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid                                                         associated water bodies. This
                   and the underlying       change may also impact on           over-grazing.                                                                                  will impact on water quality
                   geology. We depend       soil microbial activity and the                                                                                                    and on their chemical and
                                                                                n Where there is high risk of soil erosion
                   on healthy soils for     rate that organic matter is                                                                                                        environmental status.
                                                                                encourage conservation measures such as
                   growing food. Soils      recycled.
                                                                                contour ploughing, buffer strips, improving soil    Water Cycling   We rely on the natural     Increased intensity or duration     n Work to restore the hydrological connection
                   are slow to form
                                                                                structure or changes in land management such                        environment and its        of drought events may impact        between rivers, open water and wetlands.
                   but can be quickly
                                                                                as transition from arable to long-term grass lays                   functions to provide       on surface and groundwater
                   degraded by poor                                                                                                                                                                                n Develop catchment level approaches and
                                                                                or cover crops.                                                     us with fresh water.       levels. Lower levels of
                   land management,                                                                                                                                                                                techniques that have potential to deliver
                   erosion and the                                              n Improve adaptive capacity through the use                                                    infiltration may also mean
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   enhanced flood storage and manage rates
                   impacts of weather                                           of buffer strips, cover crops, contour ploughing                                               that the aquifer may become
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of run-off.
                   and climate.                                                 to retain the soil in situ.                                                                    depleted at times of greater
                                                                                                                                                                               demand. This problem may be         n Encourage naturally functioning floodplains
                                                                                n In high risk areas promote shift from arable                                                 exacerbated by an increased         and sustainable urban drainage schemes that
                                                                                to minimum or ‘no tillage’ and long-term                                                       demand for abstraction during       plan for the potential changes in flooding as a
                                                                                grass lays.                                                                                    the summer months. This will        result of climate change.
 Primary           We rely greatly on       Rates of primary production         n Maintain good soil structure and condition                                                   impact upon the availability of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   n Promote the role of Green Infrastructure
 Production        processes such as        and photosynthesis may              by maintaining high organic matter levels                                                      water for agriculture, public
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (GI) and Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUDs)
                   photosynthesis where     increase as a result of extended    to help retain water and nutrients in the soil.                                                supply. It will also impact upon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   to enhance the resilience of urban areas.
                   plant communities        growing seasons and warmer,         Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid                                                         wetland habitats and their
                   use solar energy         wetter conditions. This is likely   over-grazing.                                                                                  associated bio-diversity.           n Increased permeability of urban surfaces
                   to convert water         to be a short term effect, as                                                                                                                                          and use of rain gardens will help improve
                                                                                n Research which species may be most                                                           Chalk streams and ponds
                   and nutrients into       if observed temperatures are                                                                                                                                           storage and infiltration.
                                                                                impacted by changes in climatic conditions.                                                    may dry out due to drought
                   biological growth,       at the upper level of current                                                                                                      conditions or experience            n Create habitat and wet woodland along
                                                                                Plan ahead in terms of planting species that
                   food and raw             projections (>2°C) then this                                                                                                       changes in flow. Potential          streams and rivers to enhance connectivity,
                                                                                may be more resilient to prevailing climatic
                   materials.               increase will be offset.                                                                                                           drying up of spring lines and       flood storage, help reduce run-off and
                                                                                conditions in the medium/long term.
                                                                                                                                                                               winterbournes in their upper        diffuse pollution.
                                                                                                                                                                               courses with impacts upon
                                                                                                                                                                               their associated wetlands.
                                                                                                                                                                               Deterioration of wetland
                                                                                                                                                                               habitats due to the impact on
                                                                                                                                                                               their hydrology.

28 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                                               Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 29
Supporting Services (continued)                                                                                                         Provisioning Services
                                                                                                                                        Products of ecosystems such as water, food, and the supply of raw materials.

 Function          Ecosystem Service          Likely Impact                       Adaptation Actions                                     Function          Ecosystem Service         Likely Impact                        Adaptation Actions
 Biodiversity      Plants and animals         Changes in species                  n Target project funding and environmental             Water Supply      Clean water is            Higher summer temperatures           n Encourage good soil and land management
 and Wildlife      drive many of the          composition and declines            grant funding towards measures that increase                             essential for life. The   and seasonal reductions in the       practices that maintain and improve water
                   processes that             in diversity due to changes         resilience to a changing climate, support                                chalk aquifers and        rate of rainfall could reduce the    infiltration and reduces water run-off.
                   result in a healthy        in climatic conditions and          biodiversity and provide wider ecosystem                                 river catchments of       rate of aquifer recharge and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          n Promote uptake of high precision or
                   ecosystem, and the         vulnerability of some species to    service benefits.                                                        the South Downs           deplete the supply of water. This
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          low-input farming techniques so that the
                   benefits we get from       temperature change. Impacts                                                                                  provides drinking         will impact upon the availability
                                                                                  n Increase habitat connectivity and the                                                                                                 application of nitrate fertilisers does not result
                   it. The richness and       on species may include                                                                                       water for 1.2 million     of water for agriculture and
                                                                                  permeability of the landscape to wildlife.                                                                                              in excess nutrients passing into the aquifers at
                   diversity of species       changes in distribution and                                                                                  people and we rely        public supply. It will also impact
                                                                                  Undertake adaptive management and ensure                                                                                                key times of recharge (autumn/winter).
                   and habitats are           abundance, and the timing of                                                                                 on the supply for all     upon wetland habitats and their
                                                                                  that areas of valuable habitat are bigger, better
                   vital to conserve as       seasonal events and habitat                                                                                  our commercial and        associated biodiversity.
                                                                                  managed and joined up. Increase the quality
                   they support and           use. As a consequence there                                                                                  domestic uses.
                                                                                  and habitat diversity of wildlife sites.
                   underpin many of           are likely to be changes in
                                                                                  n Improve the quality of existing ‘core’ wildlife
                                                                                                                                         Food              Farmers in the South      Climate change is likely to impact   n Support for farmers in terms of
                   the processes we           the composition of plant and
                                                                                  sites (such as Sites of Special Scientific Interest    Production        Downs produce             upon the kinds of crops that will    diversification to new crops and livestock
                   rely on to sustain our     animal communities. Habitats
                                                                                  (SSSIs)) to enable populations of target species                         food and other            be grown in the South Downs          breeds that may be more resilient to changing
                   lives. Many species        are also likely to change, for
                                                                                  to grow and expand their range.                                          raw materials. The        National Park. Warmer, drier         climatic conditions.
                   of plants and animals      example higher growth rates in
                                                                                                                                                           farmed environment        seasonal conditions may impact
                   are also important         forests. Decrease in the overall                                                                                                                                            n Move towards more drought tolerant
                                                                                  n Deliver large scale habitat creation where                             of the South Downs        upon yields and the viability of
                   as they provide food       ecological connectivity of                                                                                                                                                  varieties of arable crops to reduce the need
                                                                                  opportunities exist, create buffer zones for                             is a major producer       livestock systems. There may
                   and other resources        the wider landscape. Loss of                                                                                                                                                for irrigation.
                                                                                  vulnerable or fragmented habitats.                                       of cereals and            be more drought tolerant or
                   (e.g. timber) for          condition of designated sites
                                                                                                                                                           wheat, oilseeds,          novel crops, there may be an         n Use of natural pest controls or pest
                   people, and wildlife       or priority habitats may occur.     n Work at a landscape and catchment scale
                                                                                  to deliver effective environmental outcomes,                             sheep and cattle          increase in demand for water for     resistant crop species to reduce the need
                   has significant cultural
                                              Species migration and loss                                                                                   amongst other             irrigation. Warmer wetter winters    for pesticide use.
                   heritage value.                                                allow for climate change adaptation and
                                              of small or isolated patches                                                                                 produce.                  may lead to increased survival
                                                                                  improve ecosystem service function.                                                                                                     n Encourage mixed sustainable farming
                                              of habitat will affect their                                                                                                           rates for crop pests and diseases
                                                                                  n Develop and implement a landscape-scale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          that protect the environmental assets and
                                              resilience. Fragmentation of                                                                                                           with a corresponding increase in
                                                                                  strategy for tackling invasive and non-native                                                                                           ecosystem services of the South Downs while
                                              some habitat types such as                                                                                                             the need for pesticides and other
                                                                                  species. Work to reduce their impact and                                                                                                maintaining the profitability of farming.
                                              chalk and other unimproved                                                                                                             pest controls.
                                              grassland will limit their          spread within the National Park.                                                                                                        n Encourage adaptation responses and land
                                                                                                                                                                                     Direct damage from extreme
                                              adaptive capacity. Potential                                                                                                                                                use practices that support or benefit the
                                                                                                                                                                                     weather events such as drought,
                                              for increased competition                                                                                                                                                   special qualities of the National Park.
                                                                                                                                                                                     flooding or storms may impact
                                              from invasive and non-native
                                                                                                                                                                                     on the viability of harvests. The
                                              species. Loss of native species
                                                                                                                                                                                     impact of climate change on
                                              that may be more susceptible
                                                                                                                                                                                     agriculture globally may lead
                                              to drought or water stress.
                                                                                                                                                                                     to greater intensification as the
                                              Planting of non-native trees                                                                                                           need for greater food security
                                              may lead to a decline in native                                                                                                        exerts an effect.
                                              species and composition of
                                                                                                                                         Timber            Woodland cover            Drought sensitive species may        n Research on which tree species may
                                              woodland. Increase in the loss
                                                                                                                                                           is around 24% of          be impacted by hotter drier          be most impacted by changes in climatic
                                              of trees to disease and impact
                                                                                                                                                           the total area of the     conditions. Vulnerable hardwood      conditions. Plan ahead in terms of planting
                                              of pest species on growth
                                                                                                                                                           National Park. Many       species such as beech may be         species that may be more resilient to prevailing
                                              and vigour. Species that are
                                                                                                                                                           estate woodlands          significantly affected. Higher       climatic conditions in the medium/long term.
                                              adapted to, or reliant on, native
                                                                                                                                                           in the central and        temperatures, dryer conditions
                                              trees may be impacted by shift                                                                                                                                              n Encourage best practice woodland
                                                                                                                                                           western downs are         and longer growing seasons
                                              in their range.                                                                                                                                                             management techniques to adapt to changing
                                                                                                                                                           under commercial          may favour new or introduced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          climatic conditions.
                                                                                                                                                           management. There         species. Forestry plantations
                                                                                                                                                           is great potential for    may suffer increased losses          n Encourage woodland management that
                                                                                                                                                           bringing other areas      and damage from drought,             provides the best range of ecosystem service
                                                                                                                                                           of woodland into          strong winds and storm events.       benefits including enhancing biodiversity,
                                                                                                                                                           active management,        Reductions in timber supply from     natural flood management, air quality, carbon
                                                                                                                                                           through coppicing         overseas may stimulate demand        sequestration and renewable energy potential.
                                                                                                                                                           for example.              for increased UK production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          n Promote the benefits of wood pasture, in-
                                                                                                                                                                                     and potential for carbon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          field and boundary trees.
                                                                                                                                                                                     sequestration.

30 South Downs National Park                                                                                                                                                                                                       Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 31
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