SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK - Climate Change Adaptation Plan SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK
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South Downs Centre North Street SOUTH DOWNS Midhurst West Sussex NATIONAL PARK GU29 9DH T: 01730 814810 SOUTHDOWNS.GOV.UK Climate Change Adaptation Plan
SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK Climate Change Adaptation Plan Pond dipping in July ©SDNPA/ Mischa Haller 2 South Downs National Park
CONTENTS Introduction 04 The National Park Partnership 06 Management Plan Why produce a climate change 07 adaptation plan? Building resilience into ecological 08 networks The Adaptation Approach 09 (methodology) Evidence Base 10 National level projections till 2050 11 Primary habitats vulnerable to 12 climate change Impacts and observed changes on key 13 National Park assets and interests Ecosystem Services and climate change 20 Assessment of the risks and 22 opportunities Summary of high risk impacts over 24 short, medium and long term Interdependencies, barriers 25 and opportunities Next Steps – Implementing and 26 reviewing the Action Plan Annexes Annex 1 – Ecosystem Service Impacts 28 Annex 2 – Assessment of the principal 38 climate change risks and opportunities Annex 3 – Climate Change Action Plan 80 Annex 4 – Policy responses to climate 98 change within the Partnership Management Plan (PMP) Annex 5 – Bibliography 100 Climate Change Adaptation Plan 3
INTRODUCTION Climate change is one of the At the upper range of current predictions The South Downs National Park 1 ‘Where there are threats of serious or irreversible we may start to exceed the thresholds at principal drivers of environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall which these services function adequately. not be used as a reason change for the South Downs The current understanding of environmental for postponing cost effective measures that ALTON Godalming National Park in the future. Its limits is insufficient, but in terms of planning prevent environmental degradation’ (United Four Binsted KEY CRAWLEY EAST GRINSTEAD Marks impacts are likely to be significant adaptive responses we have adopted a Nations General New A3 1 Bordon South Downs National Park Railway Assembly, 1992’. Alresford Haslemere South Downs Way Settlement precautionary approach1. Liphook and profound across a whole range Selborne South Downs Way Crowborough WINCHESTER Horsham (footpath only) Northchapel Railway Stations Change is inevitable, and the ability of Liss of areas and assets. The impact natural systems to be resilient or adapt Twyford West Meon PETERSFIELD Haywards upon some of the key Ecosystem to climate change varies. Planning for Eastleigh Upham East Meon MIDHURST River Rother Petworth Heath Uckfield Services of the National Park are adaptation requires ‘adjustment in natural Bishopstoke River Meon Cocking Pulborough Hurstpierpoint Burgess Hill Heathfield Storrington also potentially significant. or human systems in response to actual or SOUTHAMPTON Rowlands Castle Singleton Steyning Ditchling expected climatic stimuli or their effects, River Arun LEWES Hailsham Lavant which moderate harm or exploits beneficial Havant River Adur River Ouse Arundel opportunities’ (Intergovernmental Panel on FAREHAM Alfriston CHICHESTER WORTHING BRIGHTON & HOVE Climate Change, 2007). Cuckmere River EASTBOURNE LITTLEHAMPTON N GOSPORT PORTSMOUTH East Dean The adaptive responses we have set out BOGNOR REGIS ENGLISH CHANNEL 0 10 km in this report have been informed by the five main adaptation principles (see below This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of her majesty’s Stationery Office © Crown copyright 100050083 2011 diagram) and seek to work with the dynamics of natural systems. The role of the South Downs National Park Authority The Purposes and Duty of the Diagram 1: Five principles National Park Authority of adaptation, England The South Downs National Park Authority (SDNPA) has Biodiversity Strategy: a key role in meeting the challenges and opportunities The National Park Authority has two statutory Climate Change climate change may present. We need to ensure we purposes: Adaptation Principles Maintain Accommodate 1 have a full understanding, underpinned by adequate ‘To conserve and enhance the natural (Defra, 2008) and increase evidence, of the risk posed to the National Park and ecological change its key assets. beauty, wildlife and cultural heritage of the National Park area’; resilience Our work, both in terms of policy and delivery, needs and to be sighted on the full range of potential impacts Take relating to climate change. Through our Partnership Management Plan and other action plans we need to 2 ‘To promote opportunities for the understanding and enjoyment of the practical ensure we properly co-ordinate our work in relation to special qualities of the National Park by the public’; action now climate change adaptation and mitigation. We need to use our convening power to achieve In carrying out these purposes, it also has a the necessary joined-up and shared action with our duty to: external partnerships as well. This climate change ‘Seek to foster the economic and social Integrate Develop adaptation report, the risk assessment and its well-being of the local communities within action across knowledge and accompanying action plan set out how we intend the National Park’. to do this. all sectors plan strategically In addition, Section 62 of the Environment Act 1995 requires all relevant bodies to have regard for these purposes in terms of their activities, plans and programmes. 4 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 5
THE NATIONAL WHY PRODUCE A CLIMATE PARK PARTNERSHIP CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN? MANAGEMENT PLAN In terms of its plan making Core Values and The requirement to report also The Climate Change Act (2008) in building resilience to climate n Preparing proposals and policy covers the impact on the rural gave a new directive power to the change across sectors, taking responses to adapt adequately and policies we, the SDNPA, Guiding Principles economy and how resilience for Secretary of State for Environment, into account the full range to the risks to their business that have sought to develop from the PMP that the future might be built in through Food & Rural Affairs. This allows of social, economic and relate to climate change; an integrated approach adaptive responses. them to ask public authorities, environmental impacts. to managing land, water are relevant to this statutory bodies and other n Co-operating with other The UK government is preparing reporting authorities to achieve and the living resources of adaptation plan ‘Promoting good governance – organisations performing functions to update the UK Climate Change that purpose. considering how to encourage of a public nature, to report on Risk Assessment and the supporting the National Park. It also ‘Living within environmental active participation’ their progress in adapting to The structure and approach taken evidence reports in 2017. To seeks to promote their limits – considering the climate change. This is known inform this process, the Secretary in this report has been informed The requirement to report also as the Adaptation Reporting by Defra’s reporting guidance. conservation and sustainable impact on the environment’ means that we need to identify of State for Environment, Food & The previous National Adaptation Power (ARP). The ARP places a use, to ensure that these risks associated with climate requirement on these bodies to Rural Affairs invited the National Programme report also provided This adaptation report and action Park Authorities to undertake essential natural services are plan is about identifying the risks change and plan effectively to produce a report that sets out how a second round of reporting. a good basis for defining some mitigate or adapt in response to of the principle topic heading protected and enhanced relating to climate change and those challenges. This reflects they are responding to the risks The SDNPA formally agreed to and impacts presented by climate and focal areas. now and for the future. how they might impact upon and promotes good governance. change to their core business. participate in this. the environmental, social and The reports submitted through The Adaptation Report, once Voluntary guidance on how to The Partnership Management Plan economic assets of the National In July 2013, the government the second round will help the completed, is a mechanism produce an Adaptation Report was (PMP) for the South Downs was Park. This is fundamentally about published the first National government assess the level of through which we can encourage issued to all reporting authorities published in 2013. It is the first living within environmental limits Adaptation Programme. This capacity within each sector to action by actively communicating giving them advice on: over-arching five year strategy for – either through highlighting summary report was based upon develop adaptive responses. the findings of the report. the South Downs National Park. mitigation or adaptation responses. data from the first ‘Adaptation n Assessing the current and The information provided will also Preparation of the PMP was led ‘Using evidence to support Plan’ reporting round. Based upon predicted impacts of climate inform the review of the National and co-ordinated by the National ‘Ensuring a strong healthy and current modelled projections, it change in relation to their Climate Change Risk Assessment proposals – taking account of Park Authority working jointly with just society – considering social sets out the current challenges purposes and statutory functions; in any updates of the Adaptation a high-level stakeholder group – the precautionary principle’. Programme thereafter. cohesion and wellbeing’ the South Downs Partnership and The adaptation report will need to with extensive public consultation. Environmental impacts, driven be properly evidenced to meet the by climate change, are also likely The PMP sets out a long-term vision requirements being placed on us to have significant impacts on for the National Park. It includes by the Climate Change Act and society, health and well-being. 11 outcomes which provide a the Adaptation Reporting Powers The requirement placed on us to framework for communities, being exercised by the Secretary of report covers social impacts as landowners, charities, businesses State. It needs to be based upon the well – as far as they relate to our and public bodies to work together best available science and the UK purposes and duty. to make this vision and these Climate Impacts Projections (UKCIP) outcomes a reality. The PMP also and national level risk assessment. ‘Achieving a sustainable drives the Authority’s own business As it requires us to think about economy – considering building adaptive responses for the and operational plans, and impacts on or contribution provides the starting point for the future, it is taking full account of the to a sustainable economy’ precautionary principle. development of the policies in our Local Plan document. southdowns.gov.uk/pmp Fulking Escarpment ©SDNPA 6 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 7
BUILDING RESILIENCE INTO THE ADAPTATION APPROACH ECOLOGICAL NETWORKS (METHODOLOGY) Biodiversity 2020: Five components of an ecological network: Through our involvement This identified the principal areas In terms of a broad methodology that we considered were necessary we have sought to: A strategy for England’s in the National Parks to address within the report, and wildlife and ecosystem 1 To achieve this the strategy recommends a spatially based England Climate Change gave us a broad framework within Identify the key assets and services (2011) sets out Core areas of high conservation approach and landscape scale Working Group we which to structure the report. features of the National Park. some priority actions that value – rare or important action. The risk and opportunity benefitted greatly from the In developing our adaptation seek to increase resilience habitats or areas that are of assessment, which is annexed experience accrued by approach, a major requirement Assess vulnerability of key high ecological value or deliver to this report, sets out these was to undertake a risk assessment to climate change, and challenges as fully as possible. the other National Parks in assets and features of the important ecosystem services. across the breadth of our business. National Park. suggests we actively review It also sets out an action plan for developing their first round This was developed from our our responses over time. reports. Our approach has Key to this is the need to 2 how we might seek to address the most significant effects, or make been informed by the best current evidence baseline and sought to identify the impacts upon Consider sectoral impacts for Corridors or stepping stones – best use of new opportunities. the key assets of the National principle land uses such as establish ‘more coherent practice identified as a Park. It also looked across relevant farming and forestry. provide a mosaic of habitats and resilient ecological allowing species to move between result of this exercise. sectors that are central to the networks on land that core areas and supporting landscape of the National Park For the preparation of our such as farming, forestry and Assess the impacts based safeguard ecosystem ecosystem service function. Adaptation Report and Action upon current climate change other principal land uses. services for the benefit Plan we have required expertise projections of wildlife and people’. 3 and input from across the SDNPA as well as from external partners. We have tried to assess the likely impacts upon Ecosystem estoration areas – creating R This has been achieved through Services and the functions which Score these risks and Coherent = new high value areas that restore establishing a ‘task and finish’ are provided by the natural opportunities based upon Has all the necessary elements habitats and ecosystem service group that brought together the environment that benefit society. likelihood, impact and risk and its value is more than the functions. relevant expertise from a wide for the short, medium and sum of its component parts. constituency. We have also run long term. Resilience = 4 a number of workshop events to facilitate joint working. uffer Zones – that protect core B Identify current policy responses Able to absorb, resist or areas from adverse impacts in the In order to fulfil the requirement and highlight any gaps. recover from disturbances wider environment. to report properly, we initially or damage from natural scoped the areas that were most influences, human activities Identify adaptation options relevant for us to report on. (including climate change) while continuing to provide 5 An initial exercise was carried (potential delivery/actions). Sustainable use areas – parts out to map our principal policy ecosystem services. of surrounding land that are responses and delivery within Assess the acceptability managed in a sustainable and the South Downs Partnership of those options, their wildlife friendly way. Management Plan against the interdependencies, and the focal areas set out in the National potential barriers to delivery. Adaptation Programme. Identify planned actions for the short, medium and long term (delivery/actions). 8 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 9
EVIDENCE BASE NATIONAL LEVEL PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2050 UK Climate Projects The UKCIP projections have been used to set the baseline range (UKCP09) projections of possible climatic change used suggest that by 2050 in the assessment of risk and we may see hotter, drier opportunities in Annex 2. These summers, changes in are for the short, medium and long term horizons which are 2020, patterns of rainfall and an 2050 and 2080. increase in the impact of extreme weather events Natural England such as flooding. Climate Change For the period 1960–1990 the Vulnerability Mapping annual average temperature Natural England have recently for the UK has increased. developed a mapping tool that Projected increases in mean identifies environmental assets temperature could be 2.8°C or which are most vulnerable to greater, along with a decrease climate change. The South Downs The SDNPA is looking The report was developed This was a theme that was further in average seasonal rainfall of was one of the areas included Rainbow on Iron Age fort in close collaboration with a developed in the Partnership 19%. Though summer rainfall within the first pilots of this to establish itself as a wide range of organisations Management Plan the following near Clanfield ©Warren Peters varies dramatically the overall work and this Climate Change strongly evidence based and individuals. It was a year. An online version of the trend has been a decrease. Vulnerability Mapping data is organisation. In 2012 key document to enable the State of the Park Report can be There is reasonable confidence available for us to use. This will we published our first Authority and our partners to found here: that the greatest impact of the address many of our evidence tackle the complex issues facing change in summer precipitation requirements but will require some State of the Park Report. the South Downs National snpr.southdowns.gov.uk/files/ work in-house to ensure we can default.html will be in the south of England. This sought to capture a Park. The issues it highlighted use the tool effectively to support By contrast the trend for winter picture of the National were the basis for developing Evidence gaps remain, rainfall for the last 30 years has the reporting process. the planned outcomes and particularly around the long term Park as it was at that or cumulative effects of climate been for it to fall in heavy events. policies with our first Partnership point, and to provide a Management Plan. change on ecological networks. There is reasonable confidence that baseline against which Where these have been identified these high seasonal rainfall events It is a comprehensive document will increase, with a corresponding future changes could they have been included within that pulls together a range of increase in flood events. In winter the the action plan in Annex 3. The be measured. data and evidence across the intention would be to prioritise mean temperature increase could sectors. This was an important be around 2.2°C with an increase these through the setting of our foundation document and the of average seasonal rainfall of 16% research priorities and work with first that started to develop and across the south east region. academic/research partners to introduce ecosystem services address these gaps. and benefits as being key to delivering our purposes and duty. Iping Common ©John Dominick 10 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 11
13 Families at Durleighmarsh farm beetles has also been lengthening. and development of the woodland temperature sensitive species such canopy as a result of advancing and the arrival of migrant birds. Ground flora in woodland may Climate Change Adaptation Plan The breeding season for many be impacted by earlier leafing as butterflies, dragonflies and frogs spawning, birds nesting seen their life cycles advance in recent decades including Many animal groups have CHANGES ON KEY NATIONAL PARK ASSETS AND INTERESTS seasonal events. Phenology is the study of seasonal and inter-annual periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how ©SDNPA/Mischa Haller variations in climate, as these are influenced by well as habitat factors (such as elevation). IMPACTS AND OBSERVED 2 species so affecting the interactions per decade and the pollen season has been between 2.5 and 4 days and animals. There has also been events such as flowering, budding an observed earlier occurrence of starts (of average) 10 days earlier warmer springs in recent decades events. The timing of such events which has meant that biological between species (LWEC, 2013). been occurring earlier. This rate There has been a trend towards spring seasonal events in plants in plants is shifting, with 78% of occurrence of autumn seasonal In terrestrial ecosystems there is advance of spring and summer 1971 and 2000. The average and egg laying/hatching have showing an advance between leafing and flowering records of change may vary between a corresponding shift in later Observed changes in species phenology2 than in the 1960s. days. Six of the ten longest growing days longer then the climatological season has been an average of 29 frost – where the temperature dips According to the Central England longest 336 days being recorded Climate (CET) record, during the 1961–1990 (Met Office, 2016). within the last 30 years, with the period 2006–2015 the average days for the period 2006–2015 The average number of air frost last ten years the plant growing another climatic trend, which is the period 1861 and 1890 the below 0° – has been declining. average was 244 days, for the growing season has been 280 that the number of days of air period 1961–1990. Between seasons recorded have fallen has dropped by 16.6% when in 2014 (Met Office, 2016) The CET series also reveals compared with the period PRIMARY HABITATS VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Primary Primary Habitats Primary Vulnerable Habitats Habitats to to Climate Vulnerable Vulnerable Change to Climate Climate Change Change Primary Habitats Vulnerable to Climate Change Primary Habitats Vulnerable to Climate Change SSouth outhDowns South South Downs South Downs Downs National National Downs National National Park Park boundary National Park boundary boundary Deciduous Park boundary Deciduous woodland woodland Deciduous Deciduous Deciduous woodland woodland woodland Main Park Main Habit Main Habit South boundary Habit Downs National Park boundary Deciduous Lowland woodland calcareous grassland Main Habit Lowland Lowland calcareous LowlandLowland calcareous calcareous calcareous grasslandgrassland grasslandgrassland Main Main Habitat Coastal South Coastal Habit Coastal and and floodplain Downs and National Coastal floodplain floodplain grazing grazing grazing marsh Park boundary and floodplain grazing marsh marsh marsh Deciduous woodland Lowland calcareous heathland grassland LowlandLowland Lowland Lowland heathland heathland heathland heathland Main Habit CCoastal oastal Coastal Coastal andand floodplain floodplain saltmarsh Coastal grazing marsh saltmarsh saltmarsh saltmarsh Lowland calcareous grassland Lowland Lowland heathland meadows LowlandLowland meadowsmeadows grazing Coastal andmarsh floodplain grazing marsh Lowland Lowland meadows meadows Coastal saltmarsh vegetated Coastal Coastal shingle vegetated vegetated shingle shingle Lowland heathland Coastal vegetated shingle Lowland meadows Traditional orchard orchard Traditional Traditional orchard orchard Coastal saltmarsh Coastal saltmarsh Traditional Traditional orchard Coastal vegetated shingle Lowland meadows Traditional Woodpasture Woodpasture orchard and and parkland Woodpasture and parkland parkland Woodpasture and parkland Woodpasture and parkland CCoastal oastal vegetated vegetated shingle shingle Traditional orchard Woodpasture and parkland Woodpasture and parkland South Downs National Park ¯¯ ¯¯ 00 0 55 5 10 20 Scale Scale at at A4 A4 450,000 Scale at A4 450,000 450,000 0 0 5 5 10 10 10 10 20 Kilometres 20 20 20 Kilometres Kilometres Kilometres Kilometres Scale at A4 450,000 © © Crown Crown©copyright and and database rights rights 2016 Ordnance Survey Survey 100050083 12 Crown copyright copyright and database database rights 2016 2016 Ordnance Ordnance Survey 100050083 100050083 © Crown copyright and database rights 2016 Ordnance Survey Scale 100050083 at A4 450,000 0 5 10 20 Kilometres © Crown copyright and database rights 2016 OrdnanceScale Survey 100050083 at A4 450,000 0 5 10 20 Kilometres © Crown copyright and database rights 2016 Ordnance Survey 100050083
Impacts upon local communities Flooding events increasingly affect the lives of many communities. Along with the risks to life and property there are also impacts upon health and wellbeing, social cohesion and disruption to essential services. Extremes or increases in summer temperatures can lead to increased mortality and morbidity in elderly or vulnerable groups of the population. Wellbeing decreases as a result of extreme cold spells or heat waves that exceed seasonal Southease Village ©SDNPA/AndrewPickettPhoto.com or comfortable temperatures. Heat waves over the last decade have caused thousands of premature Observed changes in storm severity deaths across central Europe. The and drought conditions. length and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in the The incidence and severity of With the advent of warmer, wetter long-term. Cold related mortality drought conditions seems to be winters there may be increased is projected to decrease due to increasing across Europe and the risk of flooding of properties and changes in seasonal climatic UK. The south of England was agricultural land in river valleys conditions and improved housing impacted by three major drought and low lying areas. and social conditions. events in 2005, 2011 and 2012. Average UK insured losses of Exposure to ground-level ozone While public water supply has damage to property through wind is currently estimated to cause precedence over other uses, there have been restrictions in place to storms are now at £620 million per around 20,000 deaths per year Impact on water resources annum. Extreme storm events such Europe wide. Future projected manage demand. Abstraction of water from This is well above the national as those in 1987, 1990, 2001, climate change is expected to The insurance costs from natural 2007 and 2016 may become cause an increase in ground level within the National Park average of 159 litres per disasters such as floods and storm more frequent. This will result in ozone concentrations, though this provides a water supply for person, per day. The high events have increased and are a loss of trees, disruption to may be off-set to some degree around 1.2 million people. demand is putting increased projected to increase further in the transport and other public services by reductions in future emissions. Groundwater abstraction totals pressure on natural resources as future. With the projected increase and damage to property. around 215,190 litres per it reduces the amount available The number of heating degree in the intensity and frequency of year, of which 92% is to meet for the environment. This is one Average rainfall across the days, that is the number of days extreme storm events this trend the demand for the public of the causes of poor ecological National Park is currently around that communities are likely to is likely to continue in the future. water supply. Surface water (41% currently failing) and 807mm per annum in the west require to heat their homes, Increases in population, economic abstraction totals a further chemical status (45.4% currently to 879 mm per annum in the has declined by an average of wealth and development on flood 125,514 million litres per year. failing) of many of the streams east. The recharge of the chalk 16 days since the 1980s. This prone areas are also a contributing A majority of this (59%) is for and rivers in the National Park. aquifers occurs during the reduced demand for heating is factor to these increasing costs. fish farming, with a further 29% Increased drought conditions autumn and winter and is the projected to continue. Conversely for the public water supply. and the potential for lower The cost of damage to UK abstraction for the public water we may see an increased levels of aquifer recharge in the properties through flooding has supply. Changes to seasonal energy demand for cooling of The population that is reliant on autumn or winter may further reached around £1.3 billion per rain patterns and evaporation buildings during the summer. water sourced from the South compound this issue. annum. More extreme rainfall rates may affect the ability of Downs National Park uses events, such as in 2007, 2009 the aquifer to recharge fully. an average of 170 litres per and 2012 have caused significant person, per day. disruption and damage to property. River Itchen ©SDNPA/Sam Moore 14 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 15
Observed impacts from invasive species and pathogens3 The pattern of introduction for non-native species has remained consistent, however climatic change is favouring the spread Iping Common with of some species once they have flowering gorse and heather established. There are a number of ©Nigel Symington natural species colonisations that can be attributed to warming such as the southern emerald damselfly. The risk posed by invasive species, pests and pathogens may be Observed changes on habitats, species abundance and distribution increased by an increase in climatic compatibility, especially The balance of tree species in The south east has seen a notable Around 20% of habitats and with milder winters. our woodland and the wider increase in risk on the UK wildfire 12% of species are potentially River Itchen at Ovington, Hampshire ©SDNPA/Guy Edwardes Increases in temperature has landscape may change due to index. The trend towards hotter, threatened by projected climate also favoured some species that some species, such as beech, drier summers may see an increase change impacts. The rate at which are the vector for disease. The Observed impacts on riparian being more sensitive to drought in fire risk on certain habitat types, change may occur is likely to and sun-scorch. More drought particularly lowland heath which exceed the ability of many species biting midge Culicoides imicola and freshwater ecosystems is typically a southern European tolerant trees, such as ash, may is also sensitive to reductions to adapt or move, this is more species but it has been extending UK river temperatures have seen Climate change is predicted to be impacted by the spread of tree in precipitation and may, over likely to be the case in habitats that its range north in recent years and increases broadly in line with those have a significant impact on water pathogens like Phytopthera, that time, be replaced by dry, acid are small, isolated or fragmented. as a result it has contributed to of air temperatures, and in some within the South Downs National affect the health and survival of grasslands. the spread of bluetongue virus in Species that are able to expand freshwater ecosystems there have Park. Groundwater fed rivers mature trees. UK livestock. Climate change will Observed changes in the range and increase in abundance are been observed changes in life cycle such as the River Meon could see Hedgerows are vulnerable to of some animal species are generally those with a relatively increase the risk of other diseases events. There is also evidence of reduced flows of between 5–10%. drought and changes in climatic consistent with recorded increases warm, southerly distribution. Those and pathogens expanding their some declines of fish species as Rivers within clay catchment areas conditions, such as hotter, drier of temperature. that are losing their climate space range into the UK. a result of these changes in water such as the River Ouse could summers which may lead to a in the UK are generally those temperature. Phytoplankton and see its summer flows reduced by There is good national data to decrease in diversity of hedgerow typical of colder, more upland zooplankton blooms are occurring 30%. This will impact on the water highlight this trend for a range species and associated flora. This areas. Genetic adaptation will help earlier, the incidence of species resource available, as well as of species groups including birds, will also reduce their effectiveness some species to expand their range (including toxic species) that water quality due to less dilution butterflies and dragonflies. in terms of proving habitat by increasing their ability for originate from warmer regions is of pollution and discharges from connectivity within the landscape. Data shows that most southerly dispersal, for example the brown also increasing. waste water treatment works. This distributed animal species have argus butterfly has started to use could be compounded by the Some chalk grassland species In terms of water flows there has been subject to a northerly drift in a new food plant, wild geranium effects of soil erosion and turbidity are more sensitive to drought and been a general observed trend distribution over the last 20–25 (LWEC, 2013). on water quality and ecology. heat stress than others. Overall since the 1960s towards increased years. This average shift for this species composition can change, There has been a marked decline river flows during winter and time period has been between 31 with conditions favouring some in wildfowl and wader species in the decreased river flows in summer, –60 km, representing an average grasses. Sites under 5Ha are UK with populations of the Bewick though this is subject to some rate of 13.7 to 24.8km per more vulnerable as they have swan declining by 44% between seasonal and regional variation. decade. Altitudinal margins have less resilience to change so small 1997/98 and 2007/08. They are also shifted upwards by around isolated fragments of habitat now overwintering further to the 25 metres. may be lost. north and east of their range. 3 An infectious agent such as a virus, bacterium, fungus or micro-organism that can cause disease or impact upon species health. 16 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 17
Observed impacts upon agricultural Observed impacts production and systems upon sea levels In terms of agriculture there has The economic impact of soil and coastal zones been a northward shift on the degradation in England is currently Tide gauge measurements show suitable range for growing estimated at between £250 and a mean sea-level rise of around several crops. £350 million per annum. Increased 1.7mm per year as fairly constant cycles of drought and flood are The growing season for a number over the course of the 20th century. projected which will impact upon of crop types has extended by Remote sensing data from satellites soil condition. Changes in soil an average of 11.4 days for the have shown an increase in this micro-biology may impact on its period 1992 to 2008 (EEA, 2012). rise to around 3mm per year fertility and decline of crop yields. The harvest dates for cereals and in the last 20 years. This is not A greater level and rate of surface some perennial crops has been uniform and some locations, and run-off may increase soil erosion advancing by around two days per corresponding vertical movement and nutrient loss on some steeper decade. The yields for some crops of land, are experiencing much cultivated slopes. such as wheat are falling across greater average rises in sea level. northern Europe, while yields of The UK has experienced a long- On the south coast the observed maize are increasing in part due term trend in warmer growing sea level rise between 1970 and to better suitability to changing conditions since the 1970s. In the 2000 has been around 50mm climatic conditions. In the south South Downs this has resulted in and now averages around 3mm there has been an increase in the a larger area of land under vine per year. If this trend continues, demand for water for irrigation and production. If this warming trend combined with an increase reduced yields due to heat waves continues as projected, crops that in seasonal storm events, the and droughts. are better adapted to warmer effectiveness of coastal defences climatic conditions such as fennel Since 1990, southern England may be reduced. This will increase and soya bean may become has experienced an increased the risk of coastal flooding, important commercial crops. trend in soil moisture deficit, with and the sea level rise may also a corresponding increase in water An extended growing season may affect the natural functioning abstraction for irrigation. In spring offer the potential for improved of tidal rivers and estuaries. 2011 the region experienced much grassland productivity, increased drier than average conditions, yields for some better adapted causing problems for farmers crops and the potential for and land managers. If this trend double-cropping. continues we may see a decline in yields or loss of some crops due to drought conditions. Impacts on cultural heritage assets Field above Plumpton © SDNPA Historical assets such as barrows, hill forts and buried archaeology are sensitive to rainfall, erosion and encroachment by trees and vegetation. If current and projected trends continue these features will be adversely affected. South Downs Way, Clayton Windmills ©SDNPA/Sam Moore 18 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 19
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Our current Partnership Management Plan (2014–2019) develop an integrated approach to managing land, water and the The climate change adaptation options considered within this AND CLIMATE CHANGE recognises that the conservation living resources of the National report, and the actions proposed, and enhancement of these Park. It also seeks to promote have potential to deliver ecosystem derived ‘goods and their conservation and sustainable multiple benefits. For example, services’ is fundamental to the use, to ensure that these essential new woodland planting would pursuit of National Park Purposes. natural services are protected and clearly have a positive impact on The plan seeks to deliver a wide enhanced now and for the future. biodiversity, but could also benefit range of ecosystem services and landscape character, recreation, air As a result of this we have applied benefits at a landscape scale. quality, water infiltration and help ecosystem service thinking in prevent soil erosion. Ecosystem Services are Key message from the NEA that It seeks to highlight the important relation to the assessment of are relevant to this plan are: relationship between people, the climate change risks and assessing Where possible we are proposing the services that the n The natural world, its landscape and the benefits nature options. This report includes an to move towards naturally natural environment provides for society. assessment of the likely impacts functioning systems which in most biodiversity and its delivers for society. ecosystems are critically of climate change on a range of cases offer the best adaptation The SDNPA has sought to embed They are the functions important to our wellbeing the Ecosystems Approach across Ecosystem Services (see Annex solutions and deliver multiple 1). This has also influenced the Ecosystem Service benefits. or processes that and economic prosperity, all of its work. but they are consistently selections of options within the ecosystems support In terms of its plan making and Action Plan in Annex 3. undervalued in conventional and provide a range of economic analyses and policies, the SDNPA has sought to goods and services that decision making. we benefit from. Diagram 4: Ecosystem Services Delivered in the South Downs National Park n Ecosystems and ecosystem services, and the ways people The Millennial Ecosystem benefit from them, have Assessment (2005) identified changed markedly in the past four main categories of 60 years, driven by changes Ecosystem Services: in society. Provisioning Services n The UK’s ecosystems are such as food, raw materials, currently delivering services energy and fresh water. well, but others (30%) are in Regulating Services long-term decline. such as air or climate regulation n Population growth and and purification of water. climate change are likely Cultural Services to increase pressure on such as recreational, heritage ecosystem services or experiential values. in the future. Supporting Services n Actions taken and decisions such as habitats and nutrient made now will have or water cycling. consequences far into the future for ecosystem services The National Ecosystem and human wellbeing. It is Assessment (NEA) (2011) was important these consequences the first attempt to assess the are understood and we make full range of benefits that nature the best choices for present provides. The assessment and future generations. also tried to consider how they had been impacted n We need to move to a more historically, and how they may integrated approach to be affected by future changes. ecosystem management. Succisa pratensis, Devil’s-bit scabious ©Nigel Symington 20 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 21
ASSESSMENT OF THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Cuckmere Haven ©Sam Moore The risks and opportunities from climate change have been considered under Built Environment Natural Farming Recreation the following broad headings and Development Control, Spatial Environment and Forestry and Tourism cover the range of natural and cultural Planning and Infrastructure. Species diversity and habitats, Agriculture, Food Security, Land Rights of Way and Access, assets of the National Park, principle n Flood and coastal erosion Water, Soils and Resource Management, Plantation and Visitor and Recreational land uses, and the core business of the risk management Protection. Managed Woodland. Infrastructure, Visitor Use and Numbers, Transport. Authority itself. These have been based n Spatial planning n Building ecological n Building resilience on the headings used in the UK climate n Increasing adaptive capacity resilience to the impacts in the agricultural sector n Sustainable tourism of climate change change adaption plan (2013). n Making homes and n Effective water management n Making recreational communities more resilient n Developing adaptive infrastructure more resilient The assessment of risks and opportunities from climate n Resilience in forestry capacity at Landscape Scale change is presented in Annex 2 – Assessment of the n Infrastructure networks n Opportunities to diversify n Resilience to pests principal climate change risks and opportunities. (energy, water and n Preparing for and the rural economy and disease transport etc.) accommodating n South Downs Shared Identity inevitable change n Innovation and evidence n Infrastructure management Landscape Historic Community NPA Business Geology and landform, Environment and Economy Continuity Landscape Character, Historic Buildings and Local Economy, Community n Forward planning for Landscape Features, settlements, Archaeology, Life and Resilience. operational impacts Land use and Settlements. Historic Landscapes. n Healthy and resilient n SDNPA property and estate n Building ecological n Building resilience to the Communities resilience to the impacts n Staff welfare and practices impacts of climate change of climate change n Climate resilience n Adapting to prepare in the health and n Adaptive capacity for inevitable change social care systems at Landscape Scale n Vulnerable groups n Preparing for and accommodating n Emergency services inevitable change and community resilience 22 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 23
SUMMARY OF HIGH RISK INTERDEPENDENCIES, IMPACTS OVER SHORT, BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Challenges of working Ecological Organisational at a landscape scale There are significant impacts on The South Downs National Park species, habitats and the natural covers an area of 1653km² and The South Downs National assets of the South Downs. In has the largest resident population some cases the speed of change of any UK National Park. There Park is a landscape that has may be greater than the ability are 15 constituent local authorities been heavily influenced of species or habitats to fully and a broad partnership of and shaped by farming adapt or shift their range. Though statutory bodies and interest and other land uses. Many evidence is being accrued, we groups that have been brought do not fully understand the full together around the delivery of of the key risks associated ecological impacts of climate the Partnership Management Plan with climate change relate change. In the longer term there (PMP). The National Park Authority to agriculture and land use. are challenges in deciding which will need to work very effectively species and habitats it is realistic at building and maintaining these There are significant challenges to conserve and enhance, and cross-sectoral partnerships to in terms of influencing land use which need to be supported to deliver the action plan, and the A summary table of the main risks/opportunities decisions and in delivering the adapt or shift their range – or outcomes of the PMP. is included in Annex 2. necessary adaptation responses face loss. at landscape scale. The National This sets out the main These have been based around Park Authority needs to work the projections presented vulnerabilities to climate within the UK Climate Impact very closely with farmers and Funding Political land managers in and around change impacts relating Projections (2009). More recent the National Park. to develop Budgets across the public Shifts in political support and short to the key natural and projections were not available adaptation responses that also sector are declining and under term horizons mean that often cultural assets of the for the preparation of this report, support the economic viability of pressure. Funding adaptation climate change and the risks it being due sometime in 2017. National Park. For each farming and other rural businesses. actions at the necessary scale, presents are not given the priority Recent review of the evidence and over the long term, will they should be in terms of national broad heading the risks supports the likelihood that present a significant challenge. policy. There is also a wide diversity and opportunities have observed changes are likely to When actions are required of public attitudes to climate been scored using a be within the central estimate for from a broad range of partners change and whether it is being simple RAG scoring 2020 and beyond. In terms of and organisations it will be driven by human activity. There the South Downs specifically, the necessary to develop joint is a need to present the scientific system (low to high) for highest risks are those relating funding packages. This may be evidence in such a way that it short, medium and long to water, land management, difficult in light of competing gains wider public acceptance. term projections. flooding and impacts on the corporate priorities but there are There is also a lack of awareness biodiversity and habitats. opportunities to work together of the impacts which also limits to achieve co-financing from the opportunity to make the case existing public budgets, private for action and build capability. sector finance and other national Looking over the Cuckmere River ©SDNPA/Mischa Haller funding sources. 24 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 25
St Catherine’s Hill, nr. Winchester and Cheriton ©Sam Moore NEXT STEPS: IMPLEMENTING & Diagram 5: Climate-smart planning cycle Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles REVIEWING THE ACTION PLAN into Practice (National Wildlife Federation, 2014). The action plan that This is well beyond the current Over the longer term other risks Review goals, Partnership Management Plan may materialise that were not Implement actions Define planning appears in Annex 3 is (PMP) cycle, and through to the considered or planned for. It is objectives and and monitor results purpose and scope based upon the best strategies end of the expected lifecycle of considered sensible to review this current evidence – both the current Local Plan document. in tandem with the PMP cycle so observed and projected In many cases these actions will that planned adaptation responses need to be carried forward into can be built into our delivery – and aims to set a subsequent Management Plan framework. long-term horizon for Evaluate and select Assess climate impact and Corporate Plan cycles. In terms of delivering climate adaptation options and vulnerabilities planned actions. Many of In the short term the risk change adaptation at a truly the risks and opportunities assessment and action plan will landscape scale, we will also identified through this help to inform the review and need to look beyond our set priorities for the next PMP boundary. The South Downs adaptation report require (post 2019). The action plan will National Park Authority will look Review goals, actions over the medium also inform the development of to work collaboratively with the Identify possible objectives and to long term (up to 2030 the next 5 Year Corporate Plan other Protected Landscapes and adaptation options strategies and beyond). (2016–2021) for impacts that adjoining Areas of Outstanding relate to business continuity, Natural Beauty. This will help to property and estate or staff welfare develop a strategic approach for the National Park Authority and deliver adaptation responses specifically. across organisational, sectoral and geographic boundaries. By Review vulnerabilities Looking ahead, the risk using the collective power of the assessment and action plan will protected landscapes, and their also need to be kept under review statutory Management Plans as as climate change impacts that a delivery mechanism, we can have been considered may face up to the challenges and occur over a shorter timescale opportunities that climate than originally projected. change presents. 26 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan 27
ANNEX 1 – ECOSYSTEM Function Nutrient Cycling Ecosystem Service Plants, animals and micro-organisms are Likely Impact Extreme cycles of drought and flooding will increase Adaptation Actions n Encourage land management practices that maintain the structural and microbial condition SERVICE IMPACTS essential to the natural cycle of nutrients and help maintain nutrient loss through surface run-off and change soil microbial activity. Soil drying of soils and maximise its ability to store water and nutrients. n Promote soil conservation measures Supporting Services soil and water and resulting changes in especially in areas that are prone to erosion quality. Increased agricultural practices may Functions provided by ecosystems that underpin all of the other services. or may be more susceptible to drought levels of nutrients impact on its ability to conditions. such as nitrates and sequester carbon. Loss of soil Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions phosphates from condition will affect its ability n Encourage measures that retain soils in situ sewage and fertilisers to store water and nutrients such as contour ploughing, minimum or ‘no Soil Formation Soil is formed by Higher temperatures and n Maintain good soil structure and condition can result in poor which will affect soil fertility tillage and long term grass lays. Promote the the interaction repeated cycles of drought by maintaining high organic matter levels water quality. and yields. Excessive nutrients use of green manures and cover crops. between plants, and flooding will increase the to help retain water and nutrients in the soil. loads may also be carried into micro-organisms risk of soil erosion. Climatic Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid associated water bodies. This and the underlying change may also impact on over-grazing. will impact on water quality geology. We depend soil microbial activity and the and on their chemical and n Where there is high risk of soil erosion on healthy soils for rate that organic matter is environmental status. encourage conservation measures such as growing food. Soils recycled. contour ploughing, buffer strips, improving soil Water Cycling We rely on the natural Increased intensity or duration n Work to restore the hydrological connection are slow to form structure or changes in land management such environment and its of drought events may impact between rivers, open water and wetlands. but can be quickly as transition from arable to long-term grass lays functions to provide on surface and groundwater degraded by poor n Develop catchment level approaches and or cover crops. us with fresh water. levels. Lower levels of land management, techniques that have potential to deliver erosion and the n Improve adaptive capacity through the use infiltration may also mean enhanced flood storage and manage rates impacts of weather of buffer strips, cover crops, contour ploughing that the aquifer may become of run-off. and climate. to retain the soil in situ. depleted at times of greater demand. This problem may be n Encourage naturally functioning floodplains n In high risk areas promote shift from arable exacerbated by an increased and sustainable urban drainage schemes that to minimum or ‘no tillage’ and long-term demand for abstraction during plan for the potential changes in flooding as a grass lays. the summer months. This will result of climate change. Primary We rely greatly on Rates of primary production n Maintain good soil structure and condition impact upon the availability of n Promote the role of Green Infrastructure Production processes such as and photosynthesis may by maintaining high organic matter levels water for agriculture, public (GI) and Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUDs) photosynthesis where increase as a result of extended to help retain water and nutrients in the soil. supply. It will also impact upon to enhance the resilience of urban areas. plant communities growing seasons and warmer, Ensure good vegetation cover and avoid wetland habitats and their use solar energy wetter conditions. This is likely over-grazing. associated bio-diversity. n Increased permeability of urban surfaces to convert water to be a short term effect, as and use of rain gardens will help improve n Research which species may be most Chalk streams and ponds and nutrients into if observed temperatures are storage and infiltration. impacted by changes in climatic conditions. may dry out due to drought biological growth, at the upper level of current conditions or experience n Create habitat and wet woodland along Plan ahead in terms of planting species that food and raw projections (>2°C) then this changes in flow. Potential streams and rivers to enhance connectivity, may be more resilient to prevailing climatic materials. increase will be offset. drying up of spring lines and flood storage, help reduce run-off and conditions in the medium/long term. winterbournes in their upper diffuse pollution. courses with impacts upon their associated wetlands. Deterioration of wetland habitats due to the impact on their hydrology. 28 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 29
Supporting Services (continued) Provisioning Services Products of ecosystems such as water, food, and the supply of raw materials. Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Function Ecosystem Service Likely Impact Adaptation Actions Biodiversity Plants and animals Changes in species n Target project funding and environmental Water Supply Clean water is Higher summer temperatures n Encourage good soil and land management and Wildlife drive many of the composition and declines grant funding towards measures that increase essential for life. The and seasonal reductions in the practices that maintain and improve water processes that in diversity due to changes resilience to a changing climate, support chalk aquifers and rate of rainfall could reduce the infiltration and reduces water run-off. result in a healthy in climatic conditions and biodiversity and provide wider ecosystem river catchments of rate of aquifer recharge and n Promote uptake of high precision or ecosystem, and the vulnerability of some species to service benefits. the South Downs deplete the supply of water. This low-input farming techniques so that the benefits we get from temperature change. Impacts provides drinking will impact upon the availability n Increase habitat connectivity and the application of nitrate fertilisers does not result it. The richness and on species may include water for 1.2 million of water for agriculture and permeability of the landscape to wildlife. in excess nutrients passing into the aquifers at diversity of species changes in distribution and people and we rely public supply. It will also impact Undertake adaptive management and ensure key times of recharge (autumn/winter). and habitats are abundance, and the timing of on the supply for all upon wetland habitats and their that areas of valuable habitat are bigger, better vital to conserve as seasonal events and habitat our commercial and associated biodiversity. managed and joined up. Increase the quality they support and use. As a consequence there domestic uses. and habitat diversity of wildlife sites. underpin many of are likely to be changes in n Improve the quality of existing ‘core’ wildlife Food Farmers in the South Climate change is likely to impact n Support for farmers in terms of the processes we the composition of plant and sites (such as Sites of Special Scientific Interest Production Downs produce upon the kinds of crops that will diversification to new crops and livestock rely on to sustain our animal communities. Habitats (SSSIs)) to enable populations of target species food and other be grown in the South Downs breeds that may be more resilient to changing lives. Many species are also likely to change, for to grow and expand their range. raw materials. The National Park. Warmer, drier climatic conditions. of plants and animals example higher growth rates in farmed environment seasonal conditions may impact are also important forests. Decrease in the overall n Move towards more drought tolerant n Deliver large scale habitat creation where of the South Downs upon yields and the viability of as they provide food ecological connectivity of varieties of arable crops to reduce the need opportunities exist, create buffer zones for is a major producer livestock systems. There may and other resources the wider landscape. Loss of for irrigation. vulnerable or fragmented habitats. of cereals and be more drought tolerant or (e.g. timber) for condition of designated sites wheat, oilseeds, novel crops, there may be an n Use of natural pest controls or pest people, and wildlife or priority habitats may occur. n Work at a landscape and catchment scale to deliver effective environmental outcomes, sheep and cattle increase in demand for water for resistant crop species to reduce the need has significant cultural Species migration and loss amongst other irrigation. Warmer wetter winters for pesticide use. heritage value. allow for climate change adaptation and of small or isolated patches produce. may lead to increased survival improve ecosystem service function. n Encourage mixed sustainable farming of habitat will affect their rates for crop pests and diseases n Develop and implement a landscape-scale that protect the environmental assets and resilience. Fragmentation of with a corresponding increase in strategy for tackling invasive and non-native ecosystem services of the South Downs while some habitat types such as the need for pesticides and other species. Work to reduce their impact and maintaining the profitability of farming. chalk and other unimproved pest controls. grassland will limit their spread within the National Park. n Encourage adaptation responses and land Direct damage from extreme adaptive capacity. Potential use practices that support or benefit the weather events such as drought, for increased competition special qualities of the National Park. flooding or storms may impact from invasive and non-native on the viability of harvests. The species. Loss of native species impact of climate change on that may be more susceptible agriculture globally may lead to drought or water stress. to greater intensification as the Planting of non-native trees need for greater food security may lead to a decline in native exerts an effect. species and composition of Timber Woodland cover Drought sensitive species may n Research on which tree species may woodland. Increase in the loss is around 24% of be impacted by hotter drier be most impacted by changes in climatic of trees to disease and impact the total area of the conditions. Vulnerable hardwood conditions. Plan ahead in terms of planting of pest species on growth National Park. Many species such as beech may be species that may be more resilient to prevailing and vigour. Species that are estate woodlands significantly affected. Higher climatic conditions in the medium/long term. adapted to, or reliant on, native in the central and temperatures, dryer conditions trees may be impacted by shift n Encourage best practice woodland western downs are and longer growing seasons in their range. management techniques to adapt to changing under commercial may favour new or introduced climatic conditions. management. There species. Forestry plantations is great potential for may suffer increased losses n Encourage woodland management that bringing other areas and damage from drought, provides the best range of ecosystem service of woodland into strong winds and storm events. benefits including enhancing biodiversity, active management, Reductions in timber supply from natural flood management, air quality, carbon through coppicing overseas may stimulate demand sequestration and renewable energy potential. for example. for increased UK production n Promote the benefits of wood pasture, in- and potential for carbon field and boundary trees. sequestration. 30 South Downs National Park Climate Change Adaptation Plan: Annex 1 31
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