AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTORS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION GUIDANCE NOTE
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AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTORS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION GUIDANCE NOTE Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 1
Disclaimer This document has a restricted distribution and may be and other information used in this report does not imply used by recipients only in the performance of their official any judgment or views on the part of IsDB nor its member duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed countries concerning the legal status of any territory or the without the authorization of IsDB. The content including endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries boundaries shown on any map, colors, denominations, and information. 2 | Islamic Development Bank
Acknowledgments The preparation of the Agriculture & Rural The guidance note was reviewed and received input from Development Sectors guidance note was Dr. Bashir Jama Adan (Agriculture Infrastructure Division, led by the IsDB Climate Change Division IsDB) and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization with input from agriculture sector experts (FAO) staff including Rima Al-Azar, Habimana Didier, and at the Islamic Development Bank and Kim Jeongha. partner institutions. The main author of this guidance note was the World The guidance note was developed by the IsDB Climate Resources Institute (WRI), technical consultant to the Change Division (Dr. Ahmed Al Qabany, Olatunji Yusuf) Islamic Development Bank. Special thanks to Lauren under the general oversight of Dr. Mansur Muhtar, Vice Sidner (WRI) and Michael Westphal (WRI) for their effort President (Country Programs) and May Babiker, Acting in this work. Director, Resilience and Social Development Department. Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 3
1. About this Guidance Note This guidance note on the agriculture and rural development After a brief background on projected climate changes in the sectors was prepared by the World Resources Institute (WRI) regions where IsDB operates and their projected impacts for the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) to enable IsDB project on the agriculture and rural development sectors (Section teams to integrate information on climate risks into project 2), Section 3 explains the purpose of this note within a design. It applies to agriculture and rural development projects broader climate risk management process. It describes involving physical assets. For the purposes of this note, the the steps involved in managing a project’s climate change agriculture and rural development sectors include the following: risks—beginning with climate risk screening, followed by project impact and adaptation assessments, and ending • Crop production projects, including rainfed and irrigated with project implementation. Section 4 then describes production systems the process of determining potential climate impacts on • Livestock production projects agriculture and rural development projects and identifying • Aquaculture projects adaptation options to address those impacts. Section 5 presents an approach to evaluate adaptation options, and • Projects relating to postharvest elements of the food Section 6 concludes with a case study that demonstrates a value chain, including postharvest storage, processing, practical example of this approach. distribution, and marketing • Rural housing projects 2. Background: Climate Change and the Agriculture and Rural Development Sectors In 2017, a total of $3.9 billion was approved from IsDB’s (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), precipitation is Ordinary Capital Resources. (IsDB 2017). Of the total, 18.4 likely to increase at higher latitudes by the middle of the 21st percent went to agricultural and rural development century and in parts of eastern and southern Asia by the (IsDB 2017). IsDB operates in four core regions: the Middle late 21st century. Water scarcity is expected to be a major East and North African, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and challenge for most of Asia due to increased water demand Central Asia, and Asia and Latin America. Observed and 1 and poor water management (Hijioka et al. 2014). In Europe, projected climate changes vary across these regions. future climate projections vary regionally, with projected temperature increases throughout the region, precipitation Throughout much of Africa, mean temperatures have increases in northern Europe, and precipitation decreases in increased by at least 0.5°C over the last 50 to 100 years, southern Europe. Across the continent, climate projections with minimum temperatures rising faster than maximum indicate a marked increase in heat waves, droughts, and temperatures. Much of the region lacks sufficient data to heavy precipitation events (Kovats et al. 2014). draw conclusions about trends in annual precipitation. However, in the western and eastern Sahel regions, annual Lastly, significant trends in precipitation and temperature precipitation has likely decreased, and in parts of eastern have been observed in Central America and South America, and southern Africa, it has likely increased. In terms of but the patterns vary regionally. Increased warming has model projections, it is likely that land temperatures over been observed throughout the region, with the exception of Africa will rise faster than the global average, particularly the Chilean coast. Increases in temperature extremes have in the more arid regions. There is considerable uncertainty been measured in Central America and most of tropical and regarding projected precipitation patterns in sub- subtropical South America, while more frequent extreme Saharan Africa, but there is greater model agreement that rainfall in southeastern South America has produced more precipitation will increase in east Africa and decrease in landslides and flash floods. Under the RCP 8.5, climate north and southwest Africa. Across the continent, climate models project a mean reduction of 10 percent in annual change is expected to exacerbate existing water stress precipitation for Central America (with a reduction in (Niang et al. 2014). summer precipitation) by 2100, a decrease of 10 percent for tropical South America east of the Andes, and an increase in In the past century, much of Asia has experienced warming 15 to 20 percent for southeastern South America. One major trends and increasing temperature extremes. There is concern is the melting of the Andean cryosphere, which is little agreement on projected precipitation patterns at a altering the seasonal distribution of streamflow. subregional scale, but under a higher warming scenario 4 | Islamic Development Bank
The projected impacts of climate change on agricultural In Africa, rising temperature and changes in precipitation production vary geographically and are highly dependent on are likely to decrease cereal production; high-value perennial the overall warming and the degree of adaptation employed. crops may also experience yield losses due to temperature One factor that will impact agricultural production is the increases (Niang et al. 2014).In Asia, many rice-growing degree to which elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have regions are near the heat stress limits for rice, and rising a stimulatory impact on yields (known as CO2 fertilization). temperatures are expected to result in lower yields due to While there is some uncertainty (and a lack of evidence in shorter growing periods. In Central Asia, cereal production nontemperate regions), field studies indicate that C3 plants could increase in Kazakhstan, while in Turkmenistan (wheat, rice, cotton, soybean, sugar beets, and potatoes) and Uzbekistan, frequent droughts could affect cotton will benefit more than C 4 plants (corn, sorghum, sugarcane). production, and increased water demand for irrigation may However, the impact will vary widely based on the availability exacerbate desertification. In the Indo-Gangetic Plains of of water and nutrients, with studies indicating that rainfed South Asia, heat stress could result in a decrease of about systems may benefit more from higher CO2 concentrations 50 percent in the most favorable and high-yielding wheat than irrigated systems do (Porter et al. 2014). areas, while sea-level rise will inundate low-lying areas and will significantly affect rice growing regions in Asia Overall, there is high confidence that a rise of 4°C or more (e.g., Bangladesh) (Hijioka et al. 2014). in global temperature, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security, particularly Climate change many have positive or negative impacts in low-latitude regions. In the absence of adaptation, local in northern latitudes; the potential for a longer growing temperature increases of 2°C or more will likely negatively season may be offset by, inter alia, water scarcity, increases impact production of major crops like wheat, rice, and maize in extreme weather events, or increased disease and pest in tropical and temperate regions. Projected impacts vary outbreaks. On average, adaptation improves yields by the across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios: about equivalent of approximately 15 to 18 percent of current 10 percent of projections for the period 2030–2049 show yields, but the projected benefits of adaptation are greater yield gains of more than 10 percent, and about 10 percent for crops in temperate, as opposed to tropical regions, with of projections show yield losses of more than 25 percent, wheat- and rice-based systems more adaptable than those with respect to the late 20th century. After 2050, the risk of of maize (Porter et al. 2014). more severe impacts increases, particularly for low-latitude regions (Porter et al. 2014). 3. Project Climate Risk Management This guidance aims to help project teams incorporate Aware identifies key climate risk areas for the project, climate change considerations into project planning and based on project category and location. If the initial climate design. It will support the broader climate risk management risk screening using Aware indicates that a project has process, which begins with climate risk screening and some level of climate risk, project impact and adaptation concludes with project implementation. Figure 1 below assessments follow. This guidance note is meant to support briefly summarizes the climate risk management process.2 those phases of the climate risk management process. Though the terminology and precise sequencing of steps Climate risk screening and project impact assessment vary, many comparable institutions, including multilateral together establish the climate change vulnerability development banks and bilateral development agencies, context of a project. That context informs the adaptation apply these steps in one form or another. See Appendix 1 assessment that follows, which aims to identify those for a glossary of key terms used in Figure 1 and throughout measures best suited to reduce climate vulnerability, the note. thereby establishing a direct link between specific project The first phase of the process is climate risk screening. activities and the overall objective of reducing climate IsDB plans to begin using Acclimatise Aware, a climate risk vulnerability. The sections that follow discuss project screening tool, for this phase. It will use Aware at the early 3 impact and adaptation assessments in greater detail. concept stage for all projects involving physical assets. In addition to generating an overall climate risk ranking, Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 5
FIGURE 1: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS CLIMATE RISK SCREENING Preliminary, rapid assessment of the risks posed to a planned project as a result of climate change. Tools and methodologies used include Acclimatise, Aware; World Bank, Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool; International Institute for Sustainable Development, Community-Based Risk Screening Tool—Adaptation & Livelihoods (CRiSTAL). PROJECT IMPACT ASSESSMENT • Identify the climatic variables of interest for the project. These may include meteorological (e.g., temperature, precipitation); hydrologic (e.g., runoff volume, groundwater recharge, soil moisture); and other environmental (e.g., sea-level rise) variables. When their impacts are harmful, these variables are referred to as climate hazards. ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT • Establish • Identify • Use a multi-criteria approach to appraise adaptation adaptation adaptation options (e.g., functional effectiveness, technical feasibility, objective. options. affordability, stakeholder acceptability, etc.). IMPLEMENTATION • Establish implementation arrangements for selected adaptation measures (determine roles and responsibilities; identify needs for technical support and capacity building, etc.). Sources: ADB 2014; ADB 2012; USAID 2015; GIZ 2014 6 | Islamic Development Bank
• Identify the changes in environmental • Determine the vulnerability of different conditions (or system impacts) likely project components to changes in to follow from changes in the above environmental conditions. Vulnerability variables (e.g., reduced raw water is a function of th project’s exposure, This quality, increased evapotranspiration, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to a guidance increased frequency of floods). specific climate hazard. note can help to inform these steps. • Conduct economic • Select • Stakeholder engagement is critical to all assessment of shortlisted adaptation of these steps. adaptation options. strategy. • Provide for ongoing monitoring and evaluation. Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 7
4. Identifying Potential Impacts and Adaptation Options As explained above, the Aware climate risk screening tool location-specific climate information (USAID 2017).6 identifies the key climate risk areas based on the project’s Additionally, the web mapping tool, Aqueduct Commodities, type and location. Project teams can use this information, provides more localized information on water scarcity along with expert judgment and other available climate data, and agricultural production (WRI). From there, project to determine the climate hazards most likely to be relevant teams can begin to evaluate the likely impacts and potential for a project. The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge adaptation responses. This section provides tools to Portal and The Nature Conservancy’s Climate Wizard 4 5 support this evaluation. are two examples of publicly available tools for identifying Identifying Potential Impacts The decision trees below can guide project teams in note there is considerable uncertainty about the extent identifying potential climate vulnerabilities of projects of potential benefits and how different climate drivers involving crop production (Figure 2); livestock production will interact. One example is the carbon dioxide (CO2) (Figure 3); aquaculture (Figure 4); postharvest elements of fertilization effect referenced above: elevated atmospheric the food value chain (Figure 5); and rural housing (Figure CO2 may increase the productivity of some crops, but the 6). For example, if the Aware tool flags sea-level rise as a extent of potential production gains from CO2 fertilization key risk area for a food processing facility project, a project remains uncertain (World Bank 2009). Moreover, the net team would see that coastal inundation and erosion could effect of such gains and potential losses associated with physically damage the facility, causing delays or increasing other climate drivers is highly uncertain. For instance, it is maintenance requirements. It could also cause power possible that in some regions, increased yields stemming outages, which would disrupt facility operations from CO2 fertilization will be offset by elevated temperatures (see Figure 5). (World Bank 2009). There is also evidence to suggest that elevated atmospheric CO2 can reduce the nutritional quality However, project teams must be aware of several important of some crops, so some increases in yield could also be caveats in using the decision trees. First, the trees effectively offset by diminished nutritional value (Vermeulen et provide a generalized overview of potential impacts, but al. 2014). Similarly, warmer temperatures and longer growing climate change is likely to affect the agriculture and rural seasons may increase productivity in some high-latitude development sectors in diverse and highly context-specific and high-altitude regions, but changes in other climate ways (Fanzo et al. 2018). Impacts, such as reductions in crop conditions, such as declining rainfall, could temper potential yield, are likely to vary across different geographies and gains (World Bank 2009). agro-ecological zones, different production systems, and different socioeconomic contexts (Fanzo et al. 2018). Finally, the decision trees primarily focus on the potential physical impacts of climate change, but climate change Second, the different climate drivers cannot be viewed in could impact the agriculture and rural development sectors isolation. Instead, project teams must consider how the in diverse ways, including direct and indirect physical various drivers interact with each other. Some climate impacts and a variety of nonphysical impacts. Potential drivers may amplify one another, while others counteract nonphysical impacts include market, legal, employment, one another (FAO 2018). At the same time, a variety of and reputational impacts. Climate change could cause nonclimate factors, such as population growth, land- shifts in demand or changes in comparative advantage use change, economic development, and urbanization, across regions. For instance, rising temperatures and pose significant challenges to the agriculture and rural extreme heat could prompt increased refrigeration development sectors (USAID 2014). In many instances, these requirements in postharvest storage and distribution nonclimate stressors interact with climate stressors in (Brown et al. 2015). It could also affect labor markets, altering similarly complex ways (USAID 2014). For example, population supply or demand for rural labor. Changing conditions could growth and rising incomes are likely to drive up future also lead to revised regulatory requirements. For example, global food demand as changing climate conditions strain increased risk of mycotoxin contamination (Stathers et al. 2013)7 agricultural productivity (FAO 2016). in stored products during rising temperatures could lead to Third, some agricultural production may benefit from more stringent phytosanitary requirements for cross-border certain climate drivers. Some of these potential benefits marketing of goods (Stathers et al. 2013). are highlighted in the decision trees, but it is important to 8 | Islamic Development Bank
Because nonphysical impacts tend to be context- and That said, upon identifying potential physical project project-specific, they are not the focus below. The precise vulnerabilities, project teams should consider whether legal impacts, for example, will depend entirely on the legal such vulnerabilities could have follow-on, nonphysical and regulatory framework in the project country or the consequences for a particular project. specific contractual arrangements underlying a project. Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 9
FIGURE 2: DECISION TREE FOR CROP PRODUCTION PROJE CLIMATE HAZARD Atmospheric CO2 increase Temperature increase SYSTEM IMPACTS Increased Increased incidence of Potential changes in distribution and incidence of some pathogens and abundance of some insects, some weeds other plant pests pollinators, and natural enemies of plant pests PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Increased pest pressure and risk Potential lack of pollinators Increased of plant diseases; productivity or mismatch between evaporative losses decline or crop losses; increased crop flowering periods from irrigation use of pesticides; increased labor and active periods of delivery demand for weeding pollinators infrastructure and bare soil ADAPTATION OPTIONS PAdopt improved integrated PMonitor and evaluate PImprove water pest and disease management pollinators to better collection, techniques understand climate risks to storage, and PAdopt more disease resistant the services they provide distribution varieties; provide access to and PIdentify and preserve the hardware to training on new varieties natural habitats of wild reduce water pollinator species losses (e.g., line PImprove capacity for canals, cover surveillance and early detection PDevelop corridors of channels, use of pest invasions suitable habitats that piping) ensure food and nesting PIncrease diversity of crops to PMinimize resources are available for hedge against risk of individual evaporative pollinators failure; diversify through losses from intercropping PDiversify sources of income; bare soils pursue nonfarm income- PDiversify sources of income; (e.g., organic or generating activities pursue nonfarm income- plastic generating activities mulching) 10 | Islamic Development Bank
ECTS (page 1) Shifts in agroclimatic Increased Higher mean growing season Rising winter zones; changes in crop evapotranspiration temperatures; more frequent temperatures; reduced phenology rates heat waves and temperature occurrence of frost extremes Increased crop water Increased heat stress may reduce Longer growing seasons and possible demand;more rapid productivity and increase risk of crop increased productivity in some areas; depletion of soil moisture; failure or decrease labor productivity/ cropping may become feasible in increased risk of water health; decreased suitability of some previously unsuitable areas deficit crops for some regions PIdentify supplemental sources of irrigation water for irrigated PAdopt crop species or varieties with systems greater heat tolerance; provide access PImplement irrigation systems in previously rainfed systems to and training on new varieties PEnhance soil moisture retention (e.g., conservation agriculture, PIncrease diversity of crops to hedge mulching, terracing, cover cropping) against risk of individual crop failure PImplement conservation agriculture and other practices to improve PAlter planting dates to better soil quality and enhance soil moisture retention (e.g., cover crops, match seasonal conditions to crop crop rotation, balanced use of fertilizers and manure) characteristics (e.g., earlier planting to reduce exposure to mid-summer PImplement agroforestry systems to increase water infiltration and extreme heat) reduce erosion PImplement agroforestry or other PSwitch to less water-intensive crops or drought-resistant varieties; intercropping systems to provide provide access to and training on new varieties shade and reduce temperature PAlter planting dates to better match seasonal conditions to crop PEvaluate alternative uses of crop land characteristics PDiversify sources of income; pursue PImplement weed control techniques to reduce competition for nonfarm income-generating activities water and transpiration losses by weeds Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 11
FIGURE 2: DECISION TREE FOR CROP PRODUCTION PROJE CLIMATE HAZARD Decreasing precipitation and drought Sea-level rise and storm surge SYSTEM IMPACTS Soil moisture depletion; increased erosion, Diminished rainfall, reduced land degradation, and desertification streamflow and inflows to reservoirs and aquifers PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Reduced soil quality; Water supply sufficiency Increased salinity of water and loss of arable land due and reliability reduced; soils in coastal areas; reduced to land degradation productivity decline or freshwater availability; and wind erosion crop failure productivity decline or crop failure; loss of arable land ADAPTATION OPTIONS Irrigated & Rainfield Systems Irrigated Systems PImplement conservation agriculture and PImprove water collection, storage, other practices to improve soil quality and distribution hardware to reduce and enhance soil moisture retention water losses (e.g., line canals, cover (e.g., crop rotation; balanced use of channels, use piping) fertilizers and manure; cover cropping; PAdopt irrigation technologies and terracing, etc.) practices that use less water (e.g., PImplement agroforestry systems to drip irrigation, improved irrigation increase water infiltration and reduce scheduling, deficit irrigation) erosion PImplement demand-management PAdopt drought-resistant varieties; policies (e.g., overconsumption water provide access to and training on new tariffs, temporary drought surcharge varieties rates) PExplore opportunities to share water PIdentify supplemental sources of across uses (e.g., integrated crop- irrigation water (e.g., rainwater aquaculture systems) harvesting, reuse of marginal water PAlter planting dates to better sources) Rainfield Systems match seasonal conditions to crop characteristics PProvide access to supplementary irrigation where possible and PImplement weed control techniques sustainable to reduce competition for water and transpiration losses by weeds 12 | Islamic Development Bank
ECTS (page 2) Increase in precipitation or increased frequency of extreme precipitation events Saltwater Increased Increased runoff; Increased incidence of weeds, insects, intrusion flood risk increased soil erosion pathogens, and other plant pests Damage to crops; damage Decreased soil quality could limit Increased pest pressure to the irrigation or drainage yields; increased pollution and and risk of plant diseases; infrastructure; field siltation of water storage areas could productivity decline or crop waterlogging; inability to limit availability of water for irrigation losses; increased use of cultivate land; delays in planting pesticides or harvesting PAdopt more saline- PAdopt flood-resistant or short- PEnhance soil PAdopt improved tolerant crop duration crop varieties; provide stability and integrated pest- varieties; provide access to and training on new productivity (e.g., and disease- access to and varieties conservation management training on new PIncrease water capture and agriculture, techniques varieties storage to avert flooding mulching, cover PAdopt more disease- PLimit saltwater cropping) resistant varieties; PIncrease flood protections using intrusion (e.g., built and/or green infrastructure PBuild structures provide access to establish physical (e.g., earth and training on new PImprove climate data collection or hydraulic barrier, bunds, terraces, varieties and forecasting; implement early aquifer recharge) buffer strips) to PImprove capacity warning systems PIdentify alternative limit runoff and for surveillance and PIncorporate flood risk into erosion sources of irrigation early detection of infrastructure design; climate- water PImplement pest invasions proof irrigation infrastructure PConsider alternative agroforestry PIncrease diversity PImprove drainage systems (e.g., systems to uses of land (e.g., of crops to hedge drainage tiles, pumps) reduce soil aquaculture) against risk of PDesilt drainage canals and erosion and individual crop strengthen bunds runoff failure Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 13
FIGURE 3: DECISION TREE FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION P CLIMATE HAZARD Atmospheric CO2 increase Decreasing precipitation and drought SYSTEM IMPACTS Change in p asture Water scarcity Saltwater Increased flood risk composition intrusion PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Reduced freshwater Reduced a vailability o f pasture Flooding could availability (drinking and and f eed supplies; d ecreased physically harm servicing water) nutritional quality o f forage; livestock or damage potential overgrazing supporting equipment and facilities ADAPTATION OPTIONS PIdentify alternative PAdjust stocking densities to feed availability sources of water supply PImplement system of rotational grazing (e.g., boreholes, rainwater PPurchase supplementary feed harvesting) PBreed feed crops and forages for heat/drought/ PPromote water-use salinity tolerance efficiency for these and competing water uses PImplement agroforestry with fodder trees and legume shrubs to provide alternative feed resources, PProtect water quality shade, and retain water (e.g., measures to limit saltwater intrusion) PEmploy crop residue management techniques (e.g., conservation tillage, mulching) PAdopt systems to manage competing water PIrrigation feed crops and grasslands uses (including conflict- PRehabilitate degraded grassland management system) PImplement feed banks for livestock during drought PAdopt community-level rules to manage communal grazing/rangeland 14 | Islamic Development Bank
PROJECTS Sea-level r ise and storm surge Increase in precipitation Temperature increase or increased frequency of extreme precipitation events Higher mean growing season Rising winter Increased prevalence of certain temperatures; more frequent temperatures; reduced livestock pathogens and p arasites; heat waves and temperature extremes occurrence o f frost expanded distribution of vectors Heat stress c an lead to Longer growing seasons Increased r isk of disease; increased diminished feed intake; and p ossible increased use of veterinary medicines declining rates of growth, productivity in some areas; survival, and reproduction; decreased risk of harm from and reduced production of extreme cold meat, milk, eggs PIncrease flood PSwitch to more heat-tolerant species PSwitch to more disease-resistant species protections, PAdopt/increase selective breeding to PAdopt/increase selective breeding to including built improve heat tolerance improve resistance to disease and/or green PImplement feeding modifications that PUpgrade animal housing structure for infrastructure reduce metabolic heat build up better pest and disease management PIntegrate flood PConstruct shade structures or provide PAdopt appropriate disease surveillance management cooling/insulation in enclosed facilities and control measures procedures (e.g., to reduce livestock exposure to PProvide training on livestock disease forecasting and extreme temperatures prevention and control early warning systems) in PDiversify sources of income; pursue PDiversify sources of income; pursue operational planning nonfarm income-generating activities nonfarm income-generating activities Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 15
FIGURE 4: DECISION TREE AQUACULTURE PROJECTS (pag CLIMATE HAZARD Atmospheric CO2 increase Temperature increase SYSTEM IMPACTS Ocean acidification Higher temperatures may reduce the abundance or alter the ranges of some capture fisheries PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Adverse effects on Potential scarcity Potential Warming may shell formation of of raw materials scarcity of increase growth and cultured mollusks and used for feed wild seed productivity in some crustaceans; adverse in aquaculture; for capture- areas effects on pearl rising prices for based development feed aquaculture ADAPTATION OPTIONS PSwitch farmed species or strains PFind fishmeal and fish oil PImplement (e.g., away from shell-bearing replacement system for organisms) PSwitch to terrestrial-based hatchery- PSwitch to freshwater aquaculture feeds produced/ propagated PClose farms or relocate to other PImprove feed-management seed production zones practices PPromote PFor pearls, culture in deeper waters PShift to noncarnivores or more or in new sites; Increase R&D for nonfed species efficient use low pH tolerant strains of available seed 16 | Islamic Development Bank
ge 1) Higher water temperatures; increased stratification of Increased prevalence and shifts in the distribution water column and oxygen depletion of pathogens and parasites Increased heat stress could decrease Increased incidence of Increased risk of disease; increased productivity and growth and increase harmful algal bloom that mortality of stock susceptibility to disease; species with release toxins and deplete narrow thermal range may no longer oxygen levels; increased be farmed in some places mortality of stock PFarm species or strains with higher thermal tolerance; PIncrease environmental, food safety, and selective breeding to improve heat tolerance quality monitoring in aquaculture facilities; PClose farms or relocate to cooler areas improve disease-surveillance systems PFor pond systems, deepen ponds PSite facilities in areas less vulnerable to eutrophication and harmful algal blooms PAdjust crop calendars to account for higher temperature (i.e., moving practices to earlier/later to avoid temperature peaks) PFarm species and/or strains that tolerate low dissolved oxygen levels PConstruct shade structures or plant shade trees to reduce thermal stress PDiversify species or product range to hedge against risk of individual stock failure PDiversify income-generating activities to include nonaquaculture-related activities PInvest in depuration facilities PPromote best management practices and biosecurity measures to reduce risk of disease Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 17
FIGURE 4: DECISION TREE AQUACULTURE PROJECTS (pag CLIMATE HAZARD Decreasing precipitation and drought Sea-level rise and storm surge SYSTEM IMPACTS Reduced water levels, flow rates, and Saltwater intrusion Coastal inundation and overall water availability erosion PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Limited access to Some water bodies may become Increased salinity could water for farming or unsuitable for aquaculture if water lower growth, increase for use in producing quality is diminished by reduced mortality, or render feed; higher cost to inflow or if retention periods are some systems artificially maintain shorter than the minimum period unsuitable for culture of pond levels needed to attain marketable size freshwater species ADAPTATION OPTIONS PImprove water-use efficiency PUse of fast PShift to more saline-tolerant PExplore opportunities to growing fish strains or species share water across uses species PLimit saltwater intrusion (e.g., integrated aquaculture/ PConsider risk in (e.g., establish physical or agriculture systems, siting facilities; hydraulic barrier, aquifer aquaponics) relocate to recharge, coastal PSwitch to feed ingredients lower-risk areas groundwater monitoring, that require less water to be etc.) produced PClose farms or relocate PSwitch from pond aquaculture further upstream to other nonconsumptive water use aquaculture 18 | Islamic Development Bank
ge 2) Increase in precipitation or increased frequency of extreme precipitation events Increased flood risk Extreme winds associated with Increased runoff and transport of pathogens storms/hurricanes and other pollutants; reduced water quality Saline intrusion or coastal Loss of intertidal areas that Physical damage to Increased erosion that make act as nursery grounds and aquaculture facilities and pollution areas unsuitable for provide coastal protection, equipment, loss of stock, and could lead agriculture could create increasing exposure mass release with potential to reduced new opportunities for to storms and limiting impacts on biodiversity; loss productivity aquaculture availability of seed of livelihoods of freshwater aquaculture PIncrease protection, PIncrease flood protections near facilities, including build PShift to species restoration, and and/or green infrastructure (e.g., rasied dykes in flood-prone with higher enhancement of pond systems or constructed wetlands) tolerance to poor wetlands and coastal PImplement improved early warning and forecasting systems water quality forests PReduce land- PImprove design to minimize mass release PAdopt and implement (e.g., nylon netting) based sources living shoreline of pollution (e.g., PEncourage use of indigenous species to minimize impacts approach agricultural and on biodiversity PSwitch to inland urban runoff) PInvest in stronger facilities and equipment (e.g., cages and aquaculture PMonitor water mooring systems) PClose farms or relocate to less exposed areas (e.g., quality upstream, protected bays) PDiversify income- PDiversity income-generating activities to include generating activities nonaquaculture-related activities to include nonaquaculture- related activities Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 19
FIGURE 5: DECISION TREE FOR POSTHARVEST SUPPLY CH CLIMATE HAZARD Sea-level rise and storm surge Increase in precipitation or increased frequency of extreme precipitation events SYSTEM IMPACTS Coastal Increased Extreme winds Increased Increased inundation flood risk associated variability/ incidence of and erosion with storms/ unpredictability in insects, pathogens, hurricanes rainfall patterns and other pests PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Physical damage to storage, Rain exposure Increased risk of spoilage or processing, and distribution during drying or contamination (e.g., aflatoxin) facilities/systems, causing delays, storage could in storage; increased storage and increased maintenance increase risk losses due to insects; requirements; disruption to of spoilage or increased refrigeration needs, operations due to power outages contamination which increase costs ADAPTATION OPTIONS PIncrease flood protections near facilities, including built and/or green PProtect infrastructure drying PIncreased wind/squall protection products from rain PIntegrate flood-risk, risk of high winds into facility design (e.g., elevate using key components, use water-resistant materials) covered PRelocate existing or planned facilities to lower-risk areas drying PDevelop contingency plans structures PImplement early warning systems PAdopt improved PInvest in improved storage (e.g., metal silos, water-tight containers drying PSwitch to portable storage structures that can be moved in case of practices flood PImprove coordination within value chain to minimize transportation distances PRelocate critical hubs to lower-risk areas PSee Transport Sector Guidance Note for detail on distribution system adaptations 20 | Islamic Development Bank
HAIN PROJECTS Atmospheric CO2 Temperature increase Decrease in precipitation and drought increase Shifting agroclimatic Higher mean and extreme Increased Reduced surface water levels, zones cause poleward temperatures; more wildfire risk stream flows; increased water shift in where crops are frequent heat waves scarcity produced Need to adjust Extreme heat can damage Potential distribution Decreased processing, transportation infrastructure disruptions; reduced availability and packaging, distribution (e.g., rail tracks and roads); visibility requires road reliability of infrastructure to disruption, delays, and or airport closures; water for use in reflect production increased maintenance decreased navigability processing shifts requirements of inland waterways PInvest in improved storage (e.g., metal PUse crop PImprove PRelocate existing or silos, hermetically sealed bags) suitability coordination panned processing PIncrease smallholder access to maps and within value facilities to less drought- improved storage facilities (e.g., climate chain to minimize prone area through collective storage facilities) projections to transportation PIncrease water storage PImprove store hygiene, maintenance, inform siting distances capacity (e.g., water and monitoring skills of processing, PDevelop PShade storage containers or keep them packaging, and contingency plans harvesting, communal cool in indoor places distribution PSee Transport ponds) PTreat grain to be stored for more infrastructure Sector Guidance PIntroduce demand-side than 3 months with appropriate grain Note for additional water efficiency measures protectant detail PImprove technology for early control and detection (e.g., rapid testing kids foodborne risks) PImprove efficiency of cooling systems to reduce storage/energy costs Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 21
FIGURE 6: DECISION TREE FOR RURAL HOUSING PROJECT CLIMATE HAZARD Sea-level rise and storm surge Increase frequency and intensity of extreme weather events SYSTEM IMPACTS Coastal Increased flood Increased More frequent heat waves and inundation and risk; potential risk risk of temperature extremes; increased erosion of landslides/ tropical overnight temperature minimums; mudslides cyclones longer, more intense hot season PROJECT VULNERABILITIES Sanitation facilities may be Flooding can Tropical cyclones can flooded or filled with silt, damage or destroy damage or destroy homes, which could cause structural houses, threaten threaten safety of residents, damage, environmental safety of residents, and displace communities contamination, and harmful and displace health impacts communities ADAPTATION OPTIONS See PRelocate existing communities to or site PSite planning: relocate to Water new communities in lower-risk areas lower-risk areas; site housing Sector PUse flood-resilient design features (e.g., to reduce wind pressure Guidance elevate the plinth and door thresholds; (e.g., use of nonparallel Note use reinforced building materials; elevate roads, unequal distribution electrical equipment) of houses) PIncrease water capture and storage (e.g., PIncrease structural stability; retention ponds, infiltration trenches, incorporate posts, beams, rainwater harvesting) and roof reinforcement into PReduce impervious paving; plan the structure; ensure that all developments in a way that leaves building components are natural vegetation in place securely connected; PInvest in improved drainage strengthen foundations of PIncrease flood protections near housing structures; used communities, including build and/or reinforced windows green infrastructure PInclude wind breaks in PImplement early warning systems and community design ensure access to emergency shelter PImplement early warning PImplement erosion and sedimentation systems and ensure access control measures (e.g., swales, to emergency shelter sedimentation pits, vegetation growth) PInclude a solid, safe failure room in building design Sources (Figures 2-6): ADB 2012; FAO 2016; FAO 2011; FAO 2017; Fanzo et al. 2018; IFPRI 2017; Lipper et al. 2018; Rojas-Downing et al. 2017; Thornton et al. 2015; Cochraine et al. 2009; IFAD 2014; Beuno and Soto 2017; Brown et al. 2015; Stathers et al. 2013; Khan et al. 2014; Tran et al. 2014; Sabbag 2013; Barnett et al. 2013; USAID 2013a; World Bank 2015; World Bank 2009. 22 | Islamic Development Bank
TS Temperature increase Decrease in precipitation and drought Increased risk Reduced surface water Altered soil and rock conditions may increase of wildfire levels, stream flows; ground movement or differential settlement increased water scarcity Heat stress can Increased risk of Reduced freshwater Damage to building foundation cause heat-related loss of homes availability for and facade from ground illnesses and loss of from fire household use movement and subsidence productivity PIncorporate consideration of PRelocate away from PIncrease PSite new or relocate thermal comfort into design, fire-prone areas water existing communities to including building orientation PIncorporate fire- capture and lower-risk areas and materials used resistant design storage PEnhance structural PImprove thermal features and materials PDiversify engineering standards to performance by insulating in buildings water supply account for risk roofs and external walls, PEstablish or improve options (e.g., using light colored or early-warning and recycling, reflective roofing material, rapid-response rainwater or including a false ceiling/ systems for fire harvesting) radiant barrier PEstablish fuel breaks PIncrease PMaximize natural ventilation to slow fire spread water-use PIncrease shading, including PImplement forest/ efficiency window shading vegetation (e.g., low- PPlant trees and incorporate management flow toilets) green spaces into planning measures to reduce risk Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 23
Identifying Adaptation Options Once a project team determines potential project nonexhaustive list of potential adaptation options for vulnerabilities, it can proceed to identifying possible addressing particular climate impacts. adaptation solutions. An important preliminary step is defining Adaptation is context-specific, and the adaptation options the objective of adaptation. In setting objectives, project teams identified in the decision trees will not be applicable or should consider what vulnerabilities they seek to address and appropriate in all cases. For example, some may be technically what their desired outcomes are. Seeking input from relevant infeasible in the project location. Others may not be stakeholders at this stage and throughout the process will sustainable due to high operational or maintenance costs. The improve the likelihood that the ultimate adaptation decisions steps described in Section 5 on appraising adaptation options are deemed successful (UK Climate Impacts Programme 2007). will help project teams determine the appropriateness of Ideally, the objective would include specific timelines and different adaptation options for particular projects. measurable thresholds for what would and would not be Additionally, because this guidance applies to projects considered successful adaptation. For example, the objective involving physical assets, many of the options identified could be to achieve a certain level of flood protection (e.g., are structural or physical adaptation options. Such options protect facility from physical damage by 100-year flood event are often referred to as “hard” adaptation options. They or ensure facility remains fully operational during 50-year flood involve on-the-ground physical infrastructure and technical event) or a certain degree of resilience (e.g., ensure facility can equipment, like upgraded irrigation systems or structural resume operations within five days of a 100-year flood event) flood protections. Structural adaptation options also include by a certain date. a variety of ecosystem- or nature-based adaptation measures Once the team defines its adaptation objectives, it should (Noble et al. 2014). There are also a variety of nonstructural (or strive to compile a wide range of measures to meet “soft”) adaptation options. See Box 1 for more detail on soft those objectives. The above decision trees offer an initial, adaptation options. Box 1 | Soft Adaptation Options Soft adaptation encompasses management, Other examples of soft adaptation measures operational, or policy changes, as well as capacity- include policy measures, such as modifying building and knowledge-management activities. building codes and standards for rural housing or Many soft adaptation measures are not specific infrastructure to increase their resilience; capacity- to a particular subsector or category of project building efforts, like establishment of field schools and, instead, are sensible across a wide range of to provide training on integrated pest management projects. For example, improved data collection or on the use of new, more resilient seed varieties; and forecasting capabilities, climate information institutional changes to support mainstreaming services, and early warning systems may be critical consideration of climate change into development to the success of projects in any of the subsectors and sector strategies; and provision of other this note covers. services, like increasing farmer access to market information and transport options. Building resilience often requires a combination of hard As such, an integrated, ecosystem-based approach is needed and soft adaptation measures, as well as engineered and (DuBois et al. 2012). Consulting with a variety of stakeholders nature-based infrastructure options (GEF-UNEP 2017). As such, (including community and nongovernmental organizations, in identifying adaptation options, project teams should environmental specialists, engineers, vulnerable populations, consider a wide range of options. Moreover, the varied and and others) can help to identify a comprehensive list of complex ways agricultural systems interact with other sectors adaptation options (ADB 2017a). and systems means that adopting a narrow, sector-based Finally, in identifying adaptation options, project teams approach to adaptation may not be appropriate. Adaptation should remember that adaptation measures will ideally be measures for one sector or subsector may indirectly affect aligned with existing country or sector resilience plans. another sector or subsector, by impacting the ecosystems, water resources, or biodiversity on which it relies, for example. 24 | Islamic Development Bank
Appraising Adaptation Options 5. A variety of approaches are available for evaluating and mentioned above, includes location-specific climate data prioritizing among adaptation options.8 One such approach, and references to a variety of other climate data sources, described below, is to use multi-criteria analysis to identify and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a short list of preferred adaptation options, followed by a Data Distribution Centre10 provides general guidance on more detailed, quantitative assessment of those options. 9 the use of scenarios and data in adaptation assessments. Additional analysis, including simulation modeling, may At the outset, assessing the performance of different be required to determine how changes in primary climatic adaptation measures, whether in qualitative or quantitative and hydrological variables can lead to more complex terms, requires an understanding of future climate phenomena, such as drought or flooding (ADB 2017b). Finally, conditions. The adaptation options identified in the above project teams can judge project performance in the context decision trees vary widely in cost. The level of investment of probable future conditions. in adaptation that is economically justified will depend on the severity of potential impacts within the relevant Although climate projections are an imperfect time horizon. Accordingly, project teams must develop representation of reality, they allow project teams to explore climate change scenarios representing plausible future how the future may unfold and how the project will perform states (ADB 2017b). They first identify the climatic and under different conditions. That said, uncertainty about hydrological variables most relevant to project design. future climate conditions creates important methodological They can then use climate model projections, analysis challenges for adaptation decision-making, so this of historic data, available studies, and expert judgment section concludes with a brief discussion of the to develop assumptions about how those variables are importance of incorporating uncertainty into appraisal likely to change over the project’s life span (ADB 2017b). of adaptation options. The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Multi-Criteria Analysis Multi-criteria analysis allows for a qualitative and • Stakeholder acceptability comparative assessment of different adaptation options. »» Does the measure have cultural, economic, or It is often used to assess factors that are not easily environmental effects that could impact stakeholder quantifiable in monetary terms or during preliminary stages or community acceptance? when the precise cost implications of various options have • Ease of implementation yet to be developed (USAID 2015). Multi-criteria analysis »» Are there factors (e.g., those related to human capital, should be conducted in a participatory manner that seeks availability of materials, or existing technical skills) input from the external stakeholders likely to be affected by that may impede implementation? the project and any potential adaptation measures (Trevor et al. 2011). • Flexibility/robustness »» How effective will the measure be in the face of The project team would first identify the appropriate criteria uncertain future conditions? for the given project. Possible criteria include the following (USAID 2015; European Commission 2013; Weiland and Troltzsch 2015): • Cobenefits »» Does the measure support other climate-related • Functional effectiveness (e.g., carbon sequestration) or development »» Does the adaptation measure accomplish the objectives (e.g., economic security, private sector desired outcome? development, institutional strengthening)? »» Does it do so within an acceptable timeframe? The project team would then agree on a scale or metric • Technical feasibility for each criterion. In some cases, quantitative metrics, »» Is the measure technically feasible in the like cost, may be available. In others, qualitative metrics project location? can be translated into a numerical form (e.g., on a 1 to 5 scale) (USAID 2013b; Van Ierland et al. 2013). Project teams could • Affordability also attach different weights to different criteria to reflect »» Are the upfront costs of the measure affordable? relative importance (USAID 2013b). »» Are operations and maintenance costs of the Next, the project team would score projects incorporating measure affordable? the different adaptation alternatives against each of the Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 25
criteria. As described above, the performance of different Finally, the project team would compare the weight-adjusted options will depend on projected climate conditions. For scores of the various alternatives (UNFCCC 2011). The example, evaluating the functional effectiveness of a project team could use the outcome to produce a short planned shoreline protection measure would require sea- list of preferred options that perform best against the level-rise projections for the lifetime of the project. selected criteria. Detailed Economic Assessment The remaining options can then be evaluated in greater valuation should be used to estimate nonmarket costs and detail using a quantitative economic assessment. benefits, where possible (UNFCCC 2011). Contingent valuation Two possible techniques for economic assessment of uses the stated preferences of impacted individuals to adaptation options are cost-benefit analysis and cost- estimate the economic value of nonmarket goods, like effectiveness analysis (GIZ 2013; UNFCCC 2011). ecosystem services. For example, contingent valuation could be used to estimate the monetary value of an artificial • Cost-benefit analysis wetland’s benefit to water quality by asking impacted Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) involves quantifying (in present- individuals how much they would be willing to pay for an value terms) and comparing the costs and benefits of an equivalent water quality improvement. adaptation investment to determine its likely efficiency Having quantified all costs and benefits, project teams (UNFCCC 2011). CBA is generally the preferred technique, discount them to present value and aggregate them to so long as all costs and benefits of adaptation can be compute the net present value (NPV) of each alternative. expressed in monetary terms (GIZ 2013). Adaptation costs The NPVs of different adaptation options can then be include direct costs, like initial investment and operating compared to identify the most suitable option or options. costs, as well as any indirect costs, like transitional costs or social welfare losses (UNFCCC 2011). • Cost-effectiveness analysis Adaptation benefits include benefits accrued and losses Cost-effectiveness analysis identifies the least cost option avoided as a result of an adaptation measure (IPCC 2007). or set of options for achieving adaptation objectives As such, adaptation benefits are assessed relative to a (UNFCCC 2011). It can be applied when adaptation benefits are project baseline (i.e., the project without adaptation).11 The difficult to quantify and express in monetary terms.12 Cost- appropriate project baseline and net benefits of different effectiveness analysis may also be appropriate in situations adaptation options relative to that baseline are ultimately where the issue is not whether to adopt adaptation dependent on future climate conditions. Project teams measures but rather how to achieve a certain level of first assess the costs and benefits of the project baseline adaptation in the most cost-effective way. under projected climate conditions. Where multiple future Like cost-benefit analysis, this technique requires planners scenarios are plausible, there would be multiple baselines to quantify (in monetary terms) the various costs of (European Commission 2013). They then assess the net benefits adaptation options. Project teams quantify all costs, of various adaptation alternatives relative to discount them to present value, and aggregate them. Rather the baseline(s). than quantifying project benefits in monetary terms, project Adaptation projects often involve impacts on things like teams quantify them in physical terms (Watkiss et al. 2013). The public health, environmental quality, or cultural heritage. unit of measurement depends on the adaptation objective. These sorts of nonmarket costs and benefits are difficult Project teams can then compare different options in terms to quantify but should not be excluded from any economic of their cost effectiveness, measured as cost per unit of analysis conducted. Instead, techniques like contingent benefit delivered. 26 | Islamic Development Bank
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