SIX TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS - Zenith Media
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2038
SIX TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS
1CONTENTS
TREND 1: THE AGE OF THE I-STREET 6-9
TREND 2: THE RISING MARKETS PHENOMENON 10 - 13
TREND 3: COLLECTIVELY RESPONSIBLE CONSUMERISM 14 - 17
TREND 4: WELCOME TO THE SOCIAL COOPERATIVE 18 - 21
TREND 5: THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING 22 - 25
TREND 6: DEMOCRATISATION OF CONTENT CREATION 26 - 29
2INTRODUCTION Other areas we can predict with some level of
confidence, for example, demographics and
of our role in making it a better place. We believe
the next 25 years will only bring the world closer.
On the 30th October 2013, ZenithOptimedia economic growth. Analysing how these trends As global citizens, we have learnt to embrace
celebrated a very important date in its history – 25 evolved and how they inter-connect with one the diversity of cultures, collaborate with other
years since the launch of Zenith Media. We have another helps us see the bigger picture. nations for mutual benefit and to be responsible
grown from our origins as a small buying agency for the wellbeing of the planet we live in. Consumer
in London, and an equally small agency in Paris – Technology has evolved at a faster pace in the values will shift from looking inwards to looking
Optimedia launched a year later – to become the past two decades than in any other time in history. outwards as people become more aware of how
world’s third largest media network. Since the We believe the next 25 years will be even better. their actions affect other people.
merger in 2001, ZenithOptimedia has gone from The global digital revolution has had a significant
strength to strength. influence on many of the trends of the past 25 The rise in social networking sites has extended
years and will continue to shape what is to come our social circle, going beyond our family and
To mark the anniversary, we have developed a over the next 25 years. The internet has changed friends and now including like-minded individuals
future-facing report to look at trends that are our lives in so many ways that through greater who share similar interests and experiences.
going to shape marketing communications over use of personal data in technology, we can expect We believe the collective mentality is going to
the next 25 years. The ‘2038’ report is intended more convenience, individual empowerment and empower individuals to be in control and make
to help marketers understand and prepare for the personalisation. Over the next 25 years the world things happen for themselves.
future. We have come up with six key trends that will go truly mobile – we will expect to do just
we believe will help brands better engage with about anything, anywhere and anytime. Through technological advancements,
consumers over the next 25 years. demographic change, internet convergence,
For the first time in history, more than 50% of and the growing power of social networking and
Our vision for the next 25 years has been shaped the world’s population live in an urban area. The social collaboration, the next 25 years will drive
by a careful assessment of the future in four World Health Organisation projects 70% of the us to optimise the opportunities to lead a more
key areas: economy, society, technology and world’s population will be living in towns and cities meaningful life. Based on these scenarios, we have
entertainment. In order to do this, we reviewed by 2050. We can expect all of these cities to be developed six key trends leading to 2038.
the major trends that evolved over the past 25 fully connected online. These connected cities of
years to understand what influenced these trends the future will be able to offer better services and
and how they might shape the trends of the future. efficient infrastructure as more data is produced
and processed.
Not all trends are linear, making it difficult to
predict even a few years ahead. Technology The internet has been a major driver of
trends move very fast and some key technological globalisation since its launch. It has made us more
advancements happen through trial and error. aware of what is happening around the world and
3Y WO
UNIT RK
EXPERIENTIAL LOUNGE
COMM
3D PRINTING
SHO
ECT
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FAIRTRADE
BE SOURCE
SUSTAINABLE LOCALLY
TREND 1: THE AGE OF THE I-STREET TREND 2: THE RISING MARKETS TREND 3: COLLECTIVELY
PHENOMENON RESPONSIBLE CONSUMERISM
New technologies are going to revolutionise how Over the next 25 years, the current emerging markets We are now more aware of the consequences of our
products are manufactured, distributed, marketed will rise to be major economic players of the world. consumption habits on the wellbeing of society and
and sold. We believe the high street will transform into They will account for 50% of the world’s consumption. the environment. Over the next 25 years, we will see
the ‘i-Street’ where digital technology converges with As such, we believe the term emerging markets will be a new movement, which we are calling ‘Collectively
physical stores to provide personalised and unique outdated by 2038. We coined the term ‘Rising Markets’ Responsible Consumerism’ – people, business and
experiences. as these markets have reached the stage where they governments working together to protect our health,
jostle with developed markets to control the world wellbeing and the environment.
economy.
4TREND 4: WELCOME TO TREND 5: THE INTERNET TREND 6: DEMOCRATISATION
THE SOCIAL COOPERATIVE OF EVERYTHING OF CONTENT CREATION
The rise of social media has revolutionised the way It is estimated that by 2020, 50 billion objects will be Over the next 25 years, we believe people will
we connect with people. Consumers are increasingly connected to the internet. This will result in a smart increasingly create their own content, as well as
turning to their network of friends to gain collective integrated system of sensors, data and internet enabled curating the content of others. This content will go
retail bargaining power and to collaborate on new devices that manage our lives. Over the next 25 years, beyond simple self-expression into broader areas of
initiatives. Companies will need to work with consumers through technological convergence, the ‘Internet of opinion and information sharing. By 2038, we believe
in a more integrated and collaborative approach for Everything’ will enable us to manage all aspects of our we will live in a world of ‘Democratisation of Content
mutual benefit. We are calling this phenomenon ‘The lives in real time. Creation’, where individuals producing content for
Social Cooperative’ . both their social circle and for the wider public will
stand shoulder to shoulder with media corporations.
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UNIT RK
EXPERIENTIAL LOUNGE
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3D PRINTING
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CLICK & COLLECT
P
TREND 1: THE AGE OF THE I-STREET
The internet has revolutionised the way many of us and distributed, but how we search for, experience Customers will touch, try and feel products and have
shop. And that retail revolution – fueled by advances in and purchase those products. We believe the high the freedom to purchase the merchandise in-store
technology - is set to continue over the next 25 years. street will change from being the place where we buy or online. Ecommerce sites are now starting to see
So much so, that ZenithOptimedia believes that high products to where we experience products. With the benefits of this and are opening physical stores.
streets, or shopping malls, as we know them today will the increase of transactions taking place online, both ZenithOptimedia believes this trend will continue over
look very different by 2038. retailers and brands will have well established online the next 25 years – we should never underestimate
sites to cater for majority of purchases. Physical stores the value of human touch in elevating the brand
New technologies will fundamentally change not will become invaluable for brands to really engage with relationship to the next level.
only how products are manufactured, marketed their customers and provide ‘real’ brand experience.
6However, in the future, human touch will be taken to
a new level with digital interactivity. The high street
print them locally. Brands will also offer customers
the choice of creating one-offs. Products that lend
WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
will become the ‘i-Street’. The physical space will themselves to self-expression and individualisation “In future retailers will no longer lose
be powered by digital technology, enhancing the in- will be at the forefront of the 3D printing revolution, customers to ‘showrooming’ as they will know
store experience. Physical stores will be converted turning consumer’s ideas into a reality. exactly who has entered their store and they
into ‘experiential lounges’ enabling us to interact with will connect with them online to price-match
brands and their products through an array of multi- Convenience will be the consistent thread throughout when they attempt to buy through another
sensory experiences. ‘Retailtainment’ will become the the shopping experience of the future. Once we have retailer.”
norm as retailers and brands go all out to develop a decided what we want to buy or produce on a 3D
Kevin Caine, Zenithptimedia Canada
dramatic hub of exploration, interactivity and creativity. printer, we will simply complete the transaction at a
Window-shopping will never be the same again as we time and in a way that suits us. With the rapid global
will expect stores to stage performances, in which we adoption of mobile handsets and tablets, Mcommerce
“High-end specialty shops will have sample
can interact and play out our retail fantasies. will become the default method of purchase. By 2017,
items so that customers can touch, feel, try
the value of Mcommerce is expected to reach $3.2
on, and then have the item delivered to their
The i-Street revolution promises a whole new trillion, representing about 20% of all retail sales across
doorstep. This type of shopping will harken
personalised shopping experience. Powered by a both developed and developing countries (source:
back to days of old when shopkeepers were
wealth of customer data, sophisticated predictive e-marketer). In fact, mobile technology is going to
also the manufacturers. In the future, personally
models will enable brands to customise our shopping facilitate every step of our path to purchase: search,
designed shoes will be printed in plastic on 3D
experiences around our moods, behaviours, needs experience, purchase, delivery and even collection. If
printers and then finished by shopkeepers with
and interests. Interactive displays and augmented we are not at home to receive our purchases, they will
leather linings.”
reality experiences will present us with things brands simply be delivered to one of many ‘click and collect’
know we like, and inspire us with new ideas that are shops on the i-Street. Amazon has already secured Philip Prock, Zenith United States
just right for us. lockers in grocery, convenience and drug stores that
accept packages for a later pick-up.
Customisation and personalisation of products “The virtual space is only useful as far as it can
will become commonplace in the future with the In the new era of high-convenience, personalised enhance our physical and personal spaces.
advancement of 3D printing technology. Over the shopping, consumers are going to have high The best brands create a seamless bridge
next 25 years, 3D printers will become very affordable, expectations and become ever more demanding. between the i-Street and main street; they
online 3D stores will appear, and the range of materials Consumers will increasingly take charge of the process segway from my screen to my living room.
for printing will significantly increase. And with the of retailing, identifying and leveraging many different Envisioning a future of i-Street as a purely
mass market adoption of this technology, brands sources and channels to optimise their shopping virtual space I believe is too one sided.”
will share design templates with consumers, so they experience. Brands are going to have to keep on their
Sarah Joyce, Zenith United States
can customise products to their own taste, and then toes in order to meet and exceed our expectations.
7FIGURE 1. % of population with mobile connected devices FIGURE 3. TOTAL RETAIL
AND E-cOMMERCE SALES
% of Population
2013
+70% +24%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: ZenithOptimedia
FIGURE 2. FIXED BROADBAND PENETRATION
VERSUS MOBLE INTERNET USERS
2017
% Penetration
% Population Accessing Internet Via Mobile 2016 Total Retail Sales Ecommerce Sales
Source: ZenithOptimedia Source: eMarketer & Euromonitor
8IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
1. Integrate Seamlessly 2. Organise Your 3. Ensure You 4. Reassess Your 5. Deliver On A New
Across In-Store, Business To Nurture Are Technology Brand Experience Customer Service
Digital And Mobile Customer-Centricity Ready Map Promise
Consumers of the future The changing retail The speed at which As consumers become Brands will need to empower
are going to want a landscape requires brands consumers adopt new savvier, they are increasingly in-store sales staff to connect
shopping experience that to review how they organise technologies will only taking charge of their shopping with customers and provide a
shifts seamlessly across their processes, systems, increase. Brands must experience, identifying and personalised experience. As
all environments: in-store, people and metrics to meet understand how to harness leveraging different sources customers are increasingly
online and mobile. Creating consumer needs. Brands these new technologies of information to optimise well informed, they expect
brand experiences that work may well need to adjust their in order to provide a truly the various stages of their more from the service they
across multiple platforms product range, inventory, personalised service and to retail journey. Brands will receive in-store. They enter
and devices will therefore services and marketing to maximise retail revenues. need to create a meaningful the store armed with a wealth
be essential. Consumers provide consumers the and integrated brand of information and sales
will expect marketers to convenience, personalisation experience map across staff need to be able to not
know them, remember past and empowerment across these different channels to only match this high level of
interactions and to integrate the consumer journey. influence decisions across the knowledge, but also add to it
brand experiences across consumer journey. and provide additional value.
all channels.
9TREND 2: THE RISING MARKETS PHENOMENON Over the next 25 years, we will see a major shift in surpassing that of the United States even before 2030 ZenithOptimedia believes the term emerging markets global economic power, with today’s emerging markets (source: World Bank). And just behind the BRIC markets is now outdated. Some of the emerging markets have becoming significantly stronger and a new tier of emerging are the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, already emerged, and are as technologically advanced markets coming to the fore. The BRIC markets (Brazil, Turkey and South Africa), which best represent the and productive as markets in the ‘developed’ world. We Russia, India and China), identified as the first wave of current emerging countries to watch. have coined the term ‘Rising Markets’ to better describe emerging markets way back in 2001, will continue to grow. the ever growing number of countries that are classed In fact, these markets will generate half of the world’s Collectively, these countries will be some of the as emerging markets. Over the next 25 years, the Rising GDP by 2030, with China set to have the largest economy, major players in the world economy by 2038, so Markets will jostle for power with the world’s mature 10
markets, which will continue to struggle with debt –
something that few markets around the world will escape
in productivity as they attract international investment,
which will increasingly come from the likes of the BRIC
WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
– slowing down of innovation, and an ageing population. markets. They will also adopt new technologies and “The young generations of the Rising Markets are
become centres of innovation in their own right. digital natives, but they don’t have computers,
Rising Markets are already the driving force behind growth they are in fact mobile natives. They never use a
in global advertising. China and Brazil are among the ten By 2025, annual consumption in the Rising Markets will mouse, they are touch natives; they have never
largest advertising markets in the world, and will soon be reach $30 trillion (source: McKinsey) [Figure 5]. This is the benefited from the welfare state, they are ‘hack
joined by Russia. We expect the BRICs to account for biggest growth opportunity in the history of capitalism, natives’. The young generations of the Rising
23% of global advertising expenditure by 2038, up from representing 50% of world consumption. The expanding Markets will drive innovation.”
14% in 2013. The CIVETS currently account for 13% of middle class and urban migration unleashes tens of
Ronan Delacroix, ZenithOptimedia China
the world’s advertising expenditure, but we expect this to thousands of new, eager consumers into the retail arena
shrink to 10% by 2038 as the next wave of Rising Markets everyday. For markets with ageing populations, such
“By 2038 I think mature markets will have accepted
take their place on the world stage [Figure 4]. We have as China, working age empty nesters represent a key
that in order to maintain growth and their position
identified six markets that represent this new growth - opportunity for brands as they have disposable income
in ‘the global race’ they will have to allow the
markets that are embracing the developments that will to indulge and pamper themselves. The diversity and
relatively free movement of people in and out of
transform the way people live, work and communicate dynamics of consumers will require brands to structure
their country as well as that of money. The disparity
over the next 25 years. These markets are Peru, Pakistan, their product portfolio and price range to meet the
between the ease of bringing money into a mature
Nigeria, Ghana, Philippines and Myanmar [Figure 6]. needs of these different types of consumers.
market and the ease of bringing in a globally
competitive workforce will have either been
Over the next 25 years we forecast global advertising The new middle classes in the Rising Markets will be
removed or will have become an acute issue.”
expenditure will grow by 212% at today’s prices. We willing to spend on products and brands that reflect
expect our six markets to grow much faster, ranging from their new wealth and status. They will eagerly embrace Denise Rubino, ZenithOptimedia Germany
333% for the Philippines and 374% for Ghana, through technology and will have a high demand for consumer
to 583% for Peru, 601% for Pakistan, 616% for Nigeria, goods, cars and property – driving up house prices. “One of the most important things for the
and all the way up to a staggering 1,898% for Myanmar. ZenithOptimedia believes that consumers in Rising global companies to address is harnessing local
The key reasons for this explosive growth are significant Markets will welcome global brands, but they will talent. Companies will have to ‘go glocal’. This
increases in population size, productivity, consumption, question how these new ‘foreign’ brand experiences means merging their tested processes with the
and an increasingly competitive and commercial media. create or add meaning to their lives. Global brands that insights of the local workforce. They must have
Population growth is likely to vary wildly across these really understand local mindsets will have the potential flexibility in their processes so that they can be
six markets between now and 2038. The UN expects to deliver experiences that are powerful and meaningful sensitive to and accommodate local customs
Myanmar’s population to grow only 12% over this period, for consumers in Rising Markets. and yet still realise their global goals.”
while Nigeria’s population is set to double to over 330
Dan Malachowski, Performics United States
million. All of these markets are set to enjoy huge rises
11Figure 4. 25 years adspend forecast and annual growth Figure 5. proportion of world consumption by geography
Adspend US$ (millions)
% Growth
New CIVETS BRI CHINA G8
Rising
Adspend 2013 Adspend 2038 Average Annual Growth
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Figure 6. Progression of the Rising Markets
BRIC
CIVETS
FUTURE RISING
MARKETS
As BRIC and Rising Markets mature, more
markets will rise, such as the CIVETS.
Other New Rising Markets will follow
behind, like the ones we have selected
Source: ZenithOptimedia
12IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
1. Target By Cultural 2. Get The Right 3. Predict Moments 4. Invite The Middle 5. Build An Inspiring
Similarity, Not Balance Between Of Growth For Classes In The Brand That Resonates
Just Geographical Local Needs And Your Product Rising Markets With Consumer
Location Global Efficiencies Category To Spend! Aspirations
Targeting consumers with Global companies will need Per-capita income is a crucial Brands targeting the Rising The outlook of consumers in
similar cultures and values will to determine how to refine variable in determining the Markets must understand Rising Markets differs from
be as important as targeting their products and services time it will take a product the relative value consumers those in developed markets
by geography. For instance, so that they appeal to or category to be embraced in these markets place on in many ways. On the whole,
Philippines, India and Brazil shape local tastes, while still in a Rising Market. Brands money. Spending or saving consumers in Rising Markets
share similar values: strong leveraging economies of scale entering the market during attitudes are often culturally are younger and new to
family ties and community across markets. Determining the early stages of adoption defined, despite short traditional middle class
spirit, despite geographic the level of local adaptation will enjoy early mover changes brought on by the product categories. They
dispersion. Targeting consumers requires an understanding advantage in establishing highs and lows of economic are keen to understand how
according to shared cultures of: demographics, cultural brand familiarity even before growth. It is important these new products fit with
and values in the Rising Markets preference, consumers’ some consumers have the for brands to understand their aspirational lifestyles.
will become an increasingly openness to try new money to spend. just how much these new To effectively engage with
important brand communication experiences and consumption consumers are willing to these consumers, global
strategy. behaviours. spend – this will be a key brand communication needs
factor in developing product to inspire and empower them
and marketing strategies. to be confident in living out
their aspirations.
13FAIRTRADE FAIR
BE SOURCE HEALTH
SUSTAINABLE LOCALLY CHARTER
TREND 3: COLLECTIVELY RESPONSIBLE CONSUMERISM
Informed by a multitude of news platforms and social media While action and campaigning of this nature has been consumerism is still relatively small scale and largely
channels, we are now more aware of the consequences around for some time, ZenithOptimedia believes that restricted to the developed markets. Focused on
of our consumption habits on our world than ever before. over the next 25 years it will be taken to a completely issues such as organic food products and fair trade, it
Social campaigns and guidance from our governments new level. We believe that we will see a completely is still seen by some as aspirational or the preserve of
are helping us to understand just how our behaviour is new movement, which we are calling ‘Collectively the affluent.
affecting our health, wellbeing and the environment. People, Responsible Consumerism’: people, businesses and
companies and governments are being collectively spurred governments working together to protect our health, However, ZenithOptimedia believes this is going to
to do something about the situation. wellbeing and the environment. Currently, responsible change significantly. Practices that are currently more
14about individual choice, such as walking and cycling to
reduce carbon emissions, are set to become collective
moments when consumers act and, crucially, whether
brand rewards or value exchanges are appropriate/
WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
social movements. We have seen more individuals effective in this space. “By 2038, all purchases will become
and non-profit organisations in both developed part of a virtuous circle where money is
and developing countries championing causes and As Collectively Responsible Consumerism gains redistributed to an identified source eg a
empowering others to be involved too. Over the next traction over the next 25 years, consumers will farmer in Romania, or a shoe-maker in Turkey.
25 years, this will develop in strength and complexity, expect brands to be ethical in all areas of their And in the name of product ‘trackability’,
and influence will be taken to new levels via social business, and in their involvement with Collectively all stakeholders will be mentioned on the
networks. This will see responsible consumerism Responsible Consumerism movements. How brands label, just like the ingredients.”
become Collectively Responsible Consumerism. behave will be one of the factors that will influence
Ronan Delacroix, ZenithOptimedia China
consumer purchase decisions. ZenithOptimedia
The area of focus of ‘Collectively Responsible believes brands will become more transparent and
Consumerism’ will extend beyond current concerns, increasingly act out of collective interest. We are
“By 2038, packaging will inform us via augmented
such as sustainability and fair trade. ZenithOptimedia already starting to see this. Heineken has become
reality about every bit of its origin and impact on
believes this focus will change over the coming years a pioneer in promoting responsible drinking. One
the environment. This will lead to people being
in line with consumers’ collective changing values of its recent ads shows a young man in a night club
more cognisant of the impact their purchases
and interests. If we continue to see a rise in thrift, refusing another Heineken and ordering water in
have on the environment and the health and
populism, justice, courtesy and sustainability (source: order to drink responsibly. Through their own efforts
wellbeing of the people involved in making
Iconoculture), it is likely that Collectively Responsible – and pressured by governments and consumers –
those products.”
Consumerism will include protecting workers rights, brands will increasingly make positive changes to
championing equality and minimising wastage. drive Collectively Responsible Consumerism. Denise Rubino, ZenithOptimeida Germany
The growth of Collectively Responsible Consumerism
will be determined to a large extent by the time, effort “Brands that are well positioned for this
and money required for change. Most of us have the new reality will be those that market
intentions to be moral and ethical consumers, but it is themselves with transparency: disclosing
a challenge to fully commit to Collectively Responsible their ingredients, where they were sourced,
Consumerism. And with so many causes out there, it is information about animal welfare, and a
difficult to keep up. Brands will need to understand the statement about the changes they plan to
true value of the many causes that will become part of make in order to be a healthier, more socially-
Collectively Responsible Consumerism. They need to responsible brand.”
understand the roles they play in the consumers’ lives,
Dan Malachowski, Performics United States
the intensity of consumer commitment, the defining
15figure 7. DRIVERS OF COLLECTIVELY RESPONSIBLE COMSUMERISM
Rising Values Collective Themes Collectively Responsible Causes
Gender Equality
Equality AND Care for
THRIFT Consumer Rights
Community
POPULISM Protection of Workers
Care for the Environment
JUSTICE Minimal Waste
Living Well for Less
COURTESY
Ageing Welfare
Health and Wellbeing
SUSTAINABILITY
Reuse and Recycle
Collaborative Consumption
Sharing Culture
16IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS IRTT A
FAIRTRADE
1. Champion Collectively 2. Share Your Vision 3. Keep Track Of 4. Involve Your 5. Reward Your
Responsible Consumerism For Your Collectively Your Collectively Customers In Your Customers’ Allegiance
Causes That Match Your Responsible Responsible Collectively Responsible To Your Causes
Values Consumerism Causes Consumerism Initiatives Consumerism Initiatives
As with individuals, brands will Sharing the company’s Consumers are becoming Invite your customers to Rewards should not be the
need to choose Collectively vision for these causes will increasingly aware that their participate in your causes. primary reason for consumers
Responsible Consumerism demonstrate serious and buying habits have a direct Take steps to understand your to support your initiatives.
causes that are meaningful to long term commitment. impact on the environment, customers, their requirements However, surprising your
them and fit with their values. Consumers of the future are and want to know that and expectations. Create customers with rewards
more likely to support your whatever they buy is good motivating content to help at relevant times will be
chosen causes if they feel for the planet. It is important drive behavioural changes. engaging and make them feel
they will make a difference to to keep consumers and other their efforts are recognised.
people’s lives. stakeholders updated on
your progress to demonstrate
that initiatives are on track in
making a difference.
17TREND 4: WELCOME TO THE SOCIAL COOPERATIVE The rise of social media has revolutionised our ability to platform for creative projects, is an example of this. It signals where they work with consumer communities for connect with people. We make new friends and share a shift in power between companies and consumers, and mutual benefit. This will see social media being used content with like-minded people at the click of a mouse. brands need to adapt accordingly. by brands as a platform and an organising structure And we turn to our network of friends for consultation, help that is central to their business strategy, not just and support. Our online friends and contacts influence our Today, social media is regarded as one of many their media strategy. Businesses that are ‘socially purchase decisions and increasingly we are joining together media channels available to a brand when devising organised’ will give consumers the power to provide to collaborate on new initiatives. Consumers are now a communication strategy. Over the next 25 years, product feedback, make contributions to product empowered to work around established companies and are however, ZenithOptimedia believes brands will development or become brand advocates. This discovering new ways to mobilise their peers for common move from traditional communication models phenomenon we are calling ‘The Social Cooperative’ cause. Kickstarter, the world’s largest crowd-funding towards more integrated, collaborative approaches, [See Figure 8]. 18
Crowd-sourcing – seeking business contributions from Over the next 25 years, new forms of brand ambassadorship
the general public – will be a key element of The Social will arise, where consumers - and celebrities - go beyond simply WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
Cooperative. It enables brands to leverage the innovative promoting products to actively contributing to the brand and its
“By responding to and involving consumers,
power of consumers, bringing them together to cooperate development. They may play a part in designing a product, or
companies can improve the customer or
and contribute, and ultimately building authentic value-rich be given a platform to provide advice to shoppers or other fans
user experience, furthering the relationship
relationships with the brand and with each other. of a brand. However, consumers will not allow brands into their
between the two and turning their
private space unless they add value to their experience. Brands
consumers into ‘prosumers’. In a world with
Volkswagen China has already done this with its People’s therefore need to facilitate platforms for meaningful interaction
so many choices and so much information,
Car Project, which resulted in the biggest ever crowd- between themselves and consumers.
brand trust will be an increasingly
sourced product, inspired by 260,000 consumer ideas. The
valuable commodity.”
result was a car designed by the people of China for the In the future, consumers will be able to tell brands what they
people of China. In the gaming industry, voluntary testing want and how they want it. They will be explicit about the Angela Mayfield, Zenith United States
and collaboration between consumers and brands has terms of service, and will help build loyalty programmes. By
been taking place for some time now. Savvy gamers used tapping into this new consumer behaviour, it will be possible
to test games for free, but are now prepared to pay for an to drive business in a new way, maximising benefits for both “By 2038, customers experience will be used to
unfinished game. In return for this purchase, they can expect brands and consumers. IKEA, for example, started an online refine products and services, foster innovation
further updates for free, whilst actively contributing to the flea market to sell its consumers’ second hand furniture, and bring new ideas to market in ways that
finished product. This gives them a sense of ownership and sharing its advertising space with its consumers and handling create early traction. By doing this, companies
involvement. The company in turn obtains revenue to fund all the marketing. By offering this service to its consumers, will create an army of ambassadors who will tell
the whole testing and upgrading programme. it has been able to provide a meaningful service to clients, the world about their products.”
while driving sales of IKEA products.
Denise Rubino, ZenithOptimedia Germany
In many Rising Markets, engaging the consumer can be a
challenge due to local circumstances. The world’s largest By 2038, the role of The Social Cooperative will become
reward platform, Jana, helps brands to reach their fans increasingly defining. While current initiatives are
“In the future advocacy will move from being
more easily - particularly in Rising Markets - by relocating promising, in the future, companies will have to rethink
the last stage of pathways to becoming one
money directly into the pockets of their consumers. They their business models to shift towards a more ‘social
of the first ones”
are able to instantly reward 3.48 billion people at the click organisation’, which involves employees and consumers
of a button with airtime credit on their mobile phones. Most alike. Facilitating consumer input and offering services Aly Mahfouz, Zenith UAE
mobile phone users in Rising Markets are on pre-paid mobile to consumers to maximise convenience and wellbeing
subscriptions, and spend as much as 10% of their daily will ultimately enable a less brand-centric model, where
salaries on airtime. Engaging with brands online can be a costly brands and consumers work together on a level playing
business, which is why Jana’s platform rebates mobile airtime as field.
an incentive for consumers to go online to share or refer.
19Figure 8. Tomorrow’s Social Organisation
OUTDOOR DISTRIBUTION
RESEARCH
PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
TV PRINT
SOCIAL
ORGANISATION
TOUCHPOINTS
VALUE
PROPOSITION
PAYMENT
ONLINE SOCIAL AUDIENCE &
MEDIA INFLUENCERS
Today: Social as a media channel Tomorrow: Social powers the business model
20IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
DISTRIBUTION
RESEARCH
PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
SOCIAL
ORGANISATION
VALUE
PROPOSITION
PAYMENT
AUDIENCE &
INFLUENCERS
1. Value Your 2. Be Open With Your 3. Reward Your 4. Provide A Meaningful 5. Set Up A Socially
Consumers’ Input Consumers Consumers Value Exchange Organised Business
Brands must have a genuine Transparency is another key Reward people for their efforts When soliciting the consumer, Use social media to power
interest in the opinions of factor in building trust. The and contributions, preferably it should not be for the brand your business, not just
their consumers, a willingness modern consumer is aware in surprising and creative ways. alone. Value should be added your communications. Engage
to listen, and an ability to and wants to be well informed. Inviting consumers to events, to the consumer’s life through your whole community –
react to feedback. This will Be honest about decisions you giving them sneak preview utility or entertainment, so staff, consumers, partners
build value-rich relationships make in response to consumer trials and free limited-edition that engagement is mutually – to ensure that everyone
of trust, respect and mutual feedback, explain what you are products will keep them beneficial. is involved at all levels. The
appreciation. doing and why. involved with the brand. Social Cooperative should
be a continuous process
that runs through the whole
organisation.
21TREND 5: THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING The internet has changed our lives in ways few could about 50 billion objects will be connected to the internet-enabled devices that will manage our lives have predicted before its launch. We are online internet (Source: Cisco). By 2038, smart watches, and the cities we live in [Figure 9]. at all times of the day, through our mobiles, PCs smart glasses, activity trackers and a host of other and tablets, and now game consoles, household types of personal connectivity will be commonplace. Intel has already launched a smaller and low appliances and vehicles are also entering the world We believe that by then, we will also see internet- power QuarkX1000 processor specially designed of hyper connectivity. Over the next 25 years, as connected chips that can be implanted under the skin, for the ‘Internet of Things’ and wearable devices technology evolves, the internet will extend to many so that even our bodies can be online. This will result (GCN), and over the next 25 years we will see different physical objects. It is estimated that in 2020, in a smart integrated system of sensors, data and the implementation of microchips just about 22
anywhere. In healthcare, this technology will
report on patients in real time, and allow doctors
control their lives. We can already see how much we
exercise and sleep, but as more devices facilitate
WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
to monitor them at a distance. data collection, self-tracking will undergo a huge rise “The more appliances that are connected to
in popularity. Such data analysis will yield valuable the internet, the more specific advertising can
With a global population of close to 9 billion by insights, but the collection of this data will continue be. On TV, advertisers will no longer choose
2038 - with over 62% living in cities - (Source: to raise concerns about privacy, as use of it by third channels and shows to appear in, but will
UN), the Internet of Everything could have far parties may result in health and credit risk profiling. select individuals according to demographics,
reaching implications on urban logistics, such as interests and previous online behaviour from
waste, traffic and water management, reducing At present, 73% of people are willing to share other appliances and internet usage..”
costs and pollution while maximising wellbeing and data in return for benefits (source PWC, Figure
Ryan Fitzgibbon, ZenithOptimedia UK
convenience for people. 11). Going forward, the market will need to take
necessary steps to protect consumer data, and
Through the many connected objects, new brands will need to build a reputation of trust and
“In order to suprprise consumers, brands will
opportunities will be created for collecting vast respect. The use of consumer data must be used for
need to dive deeply into their interests and
amounts of data [Figure 10], in turn yielding a the consumer’s benefit.
offer them things that even they did not know
multitude of new consumer insights. By 2016
they wanted/liked/existed. Smart suggestions
global data traffic will approximately double to And issues around privacy are not the only concern
are also a way for people to voluntarily engage
110 exabytes per month (Source: Cisco). With this for marketers in the new era of the Internet of
in chance experiences. Brands can then
data, the creation of hyper-personalised profiles Everything. In this world, we will know everything
legitimately engage with consumers during
will enable brands to personalise goods, services about ourselves and brands will know exactly how
those experiences.”
and offers tailored to the mobile consumer’s exact to target us - our expectations will be met without
requirements. This radically shifts the consumer any space left for coincidence. While creating Lilyana Boneva, ZenithOptimedia Bulgaria
experience into one of frictionless convenience and perfect matches for us, and making everything
efficiency. The house of the future will turn down more convenient and controllable, might sound
heating and switch off lights as you leave home, and problem-free, but where is the room for impulse “The workplace is likely to be a very different
the fridge will automatically place orders with the and surprise in this new order? If everything can place with the benefits of the Internet of
supermarket to replenish low stocks of your usual be predicted and matched, will this mean the Everything. Homeworking will become the
orders. end of serendipity? Consumers still yearn for the norm rather than the exception. Where’s the
unexpected, so in the future, we believe brands need to be located in an office when you can
As consumers become increasingly informed about will have a key role in putting the surprise back access everything you need at home, hold
health and wellbeing, data from the Internet of into a hyper-personalised world. virtual meetings, and where necessary meet
Everything will set the basis for new forms of self- in rented meeting rooms?”
analysis that empower people to manage and
Evelyne Rose, Performics EMEA
23Figure 9. HOW THE NUMBER OF ‘THINGS’ CONNECTED IS PREDICTED TO GROW
25 to 50
35% Consumer
electronics
‘THINGS’
(Figures in billions)
30% Buildings
6 to 12
Mobiles
10% Utilities/energy
10% Automotive
5% Healthcare
PCs
1 10% Other
Early Early 2020 2020 The Internet of
2000s 2011 Everything
Source: GSM Assosiation
Figure 10. THE EXPLOSION OF DATA BETWEEN 2005 & 2020
THE DIGITAL UNIVERSE IN EXABYTES (BILLIONS OF GIGABYTES)
40,026
8,591
2,837
1,227
130
2005 2010 2012 2015 2020
Figure 11. in future, consumers will commoditise
Source: ADF their own data
24IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
1. Invest, Implement 2. Partner-Up 3. Help The Consumer 4. Build Trust And 5. Keep
And Structure Creatively To Improve Their Life Protect Privacy Surprising
Invest in big data technology, The Internet of Everything Ensure that you put data Brand-consumer relationships While the Internet of
and make sure it is fully is about connectivity, and so and technology to good are increasingly based on Everything will be able to
implemented - currently brands need to partner with use to optimise the lives of trust which takes effort to create perfect matches, people
only 8% of companies do so consumers and a wide variety consumers. Hand them the build but is easily damaged. Be will still expect surprising
(Source: Gartner). To harness of companies. Be creative tools, or provide them with sure to take your consumers’ experiences. Brands will need
the potential of the Internet of in your partnerships, and information and advice to privacy seriously and invest in to work hard to provide these.
Everything, companies have work together with others empower them and improve infrastructure to protect their Some companies are already
to be ready for it. They need to optimise experience their lifestyle habits in a fun data. Consumers will be more starting to curate surprise
to structure their insights and and convenience for the and engaging way. willing to contribute and share experiences and mystery
give clear feedback to their consumer. if they know their data is truly packages to counteract the
consumers. in safe good hands. predictability of customisation
and personalisation.
25TREND 6: DEMOCRATISATION OF CONTENT CREATION
The rise of social media has spurred us to search and people will increasingly create their own content, Democratisation of Content Creation will see the
curate content. What we post online is driven to a large as well as curating the content of others. This emergence of individual content producers and
extent by our need to validate our lives through social content will go beyond simple self-expression into publishers who produce content not just for their
approval. And user-friendly technology has made self- broader areas of opinion and information sharing. social circle but for the wider public. Content for the
expression and sharing so easy: Instagram and Vine This socially created content will stand shoulder- people by the people. The Democratisation of Content
became platforms of choice almost overnight. to-shoulder with professionally produced news and Creation will see everyday celebrities becoming the
entertainment content. By 2038, we believe we will norm. With an increasing number of people creating
Over the next 25 years, ZenithOptimedia believes live in a world of ‘Democratised Content Creation’. and posting content on social media, network sites
26will become a talent spotting ground. And the public Just like any artist or pop star, content creators need to
will have more control than ever to decide the type of market themselves and find the right opportunity to give WHAT OUR PEOPLE THINK
content they like and who they want to see more of. We them the big break. Financial support and opportunities
“Really, we are asking: ‘in a digital world what
are already seeing this today, with the rise of YouTube are likely going to come from established mainstream
is the value of content?’ This is a particularly
stars commanding millions of views and enjoying the content publishers or distributors and brands. In the race
pertinent question when it comes to pieces
status of an actor or pop star. to win the attention of audiences, mainstream content
of culture eg films and audio. Brands/creators
publishers and distributors will welcome opportunities
should acknowledge most users do not
Democratisation of Content Creation will also bring to collaborate [Figure 12]. Brands too have a lot to gain
value their content and expect to consume
together like-minded people to collaborate on content from working with these everyday content producers,
it for zero/very little cost: hence piracy and
creation. Collective input is welcomed in the creative from branded content and the appointment of brand
the rise of Spotify etc. However, there will
process to spur inspiration and better ideas. There are ambassadors to purely buying up their content for brand
be superfans of brands/creators willing to
many collaboration software applications emerging marketing purposes.
pay for content with scarcity value built-in.
to support these initiatives, from example project
Limited edition or unique cultural objects
management to real time sharing software. Niche Despite the rise of everyday content creators,
that resonate highly with fans will be worth
interests groups may collaborate to create content that we believe there will still be a strong demand for
more and more. By 2038, brands/creators will
mainstream publishers deem not to be commercially high quality professional content from mainstream
have woken up to this and stopped trying to
viable. Such ventures are likely to be supported by publishers and entertainment companies. These
generate revenue from all consumers. Instead
crowd-funding. companies are well established, credible sources
they will operate under the assumption that
and offer quality content to inspire content curation.
revenue can be generated by giving free
By leveraging people’s interest to create content, Most entertainment companies also have the
access to a piece of culture, but then charging
established media publishers can also serve as investment backing to produce big scale productions
those people who wish to use that content.”
facilitators, providing platforms for audiences to or blockbusters to whet our appetite for drama, effects
share and contribute content. In effect, they will act and high quality entertainment. Consumers will always Richard Kirk, ZenithOptimedia Worldwide
as content curators, showcasing the works of their be willing to pay for good quality news, information and
audiences. The facilitator’s role is not to shape people’s entertainment content.
thinking, but to help generate conversations about “By 2038, content will surround us. We will
specific topics of interest. A successful facilitator will have to adapt to a new environment. From
know how to tap engaging topics and find ways to information seekers, to information blockers.
encourage self-expression and creativity. For us, as social and economical creatures, a
transformation that is comparable with the first
However, to turn an interest in creating content into a animals substituting water with air.”
commercially viable opportunity requires these everyday
Sascha Divsalar, VivaKi Austria
content producers to cut through the noise out there.
27FIGURE 12. CHANGING CONTENT RELATIONSHIPS
today
BRANDS PEOPLE MEDIA
TOMORROW
BRANDS MEDIA
PEOPLE
28IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
1,000,000 VIEWS
1. Become A Creative 2. Invest In Your 3. Leverage The 4. Stimulate Your 5. Plan Your Content
Collaborator Brand Asset Pool New Commoditised Owned And Earned Distribution To
Content Media Attract High Traffic
Consider partnering with The volume of quality content In the future, brands may Given the stress of information Brands can consider cross-
successful everyday content out there provides both not necessarily produce overload, brands can be the promoting content with the
producers to co-produce inspiration and opportunities content from scratch. By go-to resource for quality, everyday content producers
content. This can be in the for brands to invest in content buying content from the new timely and relevant content. and established media
form of branded content, well suited to build their ‘everyday content producers’, Brands can provide meaningful publishers/distributors. This
discreet use of product brand assets. brands will be able to save on content for consumers to will help drive traffic to each
placement or appointing production expenditure. curate and share. other’s site and lead people
everyday content producers to identify the brands with
to be brand ambassadors. certain type of content.
29CONCLUSION
Companies and brands will need to rethink how they to leverage efficiencies. Investment in the latest To build long lasting relationships with consumers,
organise themselves to capitalise on the opportunities technology will help marketers create seamless brand brands will need to be consumer-centric in their
that the next 25 years will present. experiences across the consumer journey. engagement. They will need to empower consumers
and continue to suprise and entertain them. Brands
As companies reorganise for the future, they need to Collaboration will be key moving forward as consumers need to stay relevant and truly add value. They must
stay true to their values. Being transparent on how of the future expect more from brands in terms of fulfilling invite consumers to provide product feedback and to
they conduct their business is becoming a necessity their needs and wants. New technologies will empower share their thoughts on areas of potential development.
rather than an exception. In line with Collectively consumers to make smarter decisions, and will increase A refreshing and inspiring brand story can encourage
Responsible Consumerism, brands need to take their demand for personalisation and convenience. consumers to fall in love with the brand again and again.
into account the consequences of their actions on Meanwhile, the growing influence of social media will see
consumers and communities. a new group of consumers who want to be connected
with brands and their brand community. They will expect
Consumers in Rising Markets have different needs their relationships with brands to elevate to a level of
and wants, and companies will need to determine equality, where they can have a say in what they expect
their product portfolio and distribution strategies from their favourite brands.
Y WO
UNIT RK
EXPERIENTIAL LOUNGE
COMM
3D PRINTING
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CLICK & COLLECT
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FAIRTRADE FAIR
BE SOURCE HEALTH
SUSTAINABLE LOCALLY CHARTER
30www.zo2038.com
How our people shaped ZenithOptimedia’s 2038 trends
As part of our 25th anniversary celebrations, ZenithOptimedia invited the network – 90 offices and over 7000 people
around the world – to share their views on our six trends. We created a dedicated website for the research programme –
www.zo2038.com – where we posted our six trends and invited everybody to share their thoughts on how the world will
change over the next 25 years. Three of our global media partners – Yahoo!, Microsoft and Google – provided prizes for the
best comments. We have included some of the best posts from the 2038 website in this book.
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