SIGNALS Understanding the coronavirus crisis - 3 April 2020 - Ipsos
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SIGNALS Understanding the coronavirus crisis 3 April 2020 AN IPSOS WEBINAR Eric Landwaart Chief Client officer Maaike Goes Head of Marketing © Ipsos | GCO Sharing Call
CORONAVIRUS: The story so far
1 CORONAVIRUS
2
A FAST
3
CHANGING
BECOMES CHANGING BEHAVIOURS:
REAL CLIMATE OF The early signs
OPINION
2 © Ipsos
CORONAVIRUS BECOMES REAL 3 ‒ © Ipsos
RISE IN PERCEPTION OF THREAT TO COUNTRY
Feb 7-9 Feb 14-15 Feb 28-29 Mar 12-14 % Very high + High threat for your country
90%
84%
80%
74%
70% 72% 71% What level of
65% 63%
60% threat do you
60% think the
53% coronavirus
50% 50%
46% 45% poses to your
40% country?
36%
30% 32%
20%
10%
0%
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK US Vietnam China India NL
4 – © Ipsos
How seriously do you think COVID-19 would affect
your health?
Mar 12-14 Mar 19-21 % Extremely/very seriously
90%
If you were infected by
80% coronavirus or
COVID-19, how
70% seriously do you
think it would affect
60% your health?
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5–
DO YOU THINK THAT COVID-19 POSES A THREAT TO
YOUR JOB OR BUSINESS?
Feb 14-15 Feb 28-29 Mar 12-14 Mar 19-21 % Very high + High threat
70% What level of threat do
you think COVID-19
60% poses to your job or
business?
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
6 – © Ipsos
CORONAVIRUS: The story so far
1 CORONAVIRUS
2
A FAST
3
CHANGING
BECOMES CHANGING BEHAVIOURS:
REAL CLIMATE OF The early signs
OPINION
7 © Ipsos
A FAST-CHANGING CLIMATE OF OPINION 8 ‒ © Ipsos
DO YOU THINK THE BORDERS OF YOUR COUNTRY
SHOULD BE CLOSED UNTIL COVID-19 IS CONTAINED?
To what extent do you
Mar 12-14 Mar 19-21 % Agree agree or disagree with
the following:
100% We should close the
borders of my country
90% and not allow anyone in
or out until the virus is
80% proven to be contained.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
9 – © Ipsos
END FEB: ITALY THOUGHT THE MEDIA WAS EXAGGERATING
% Strongly + Somewhat Agree
Feb 28 - 29 Mar 12 - 14
90% The media has
exaggerated the
73%
80% extent of the
70%
coronavirus
outbreak?
58%
55%
55%
60%
50%
48%
43%
43%
43%
42%
50%
40%
30%
29%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK US Vietnam China India NL
Note: Feb 28-29 used a modified scale; this was
10 – © Ipsos adjusted for indicative comparison.AND HOW ABOUT SOCIAL MEDIA?
Best media for Corona information in the Netherlands
Government websites
TV
Google
WhatApp
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
11 © IpsosA FAST-CHANGING CLIMATE OF OPINION Back to normal? 12 ‒ © Ipsos
MAJORITIES IN MOST COUNTRIES ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT
THINGS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY JUNE, DESPITE
TRAJECTORIES SHOWING THE OPPOSITE
Agree
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Australia
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Russia
UK
US
Vietnam
China
India
NL
© Ipsos
I expect things to return to normal by JuneUNTIL THEN; THE NEW NORMAL IN THE NETHERLANDS
30% in 69% agree to
quarantine heavy fines
46%
delaying
major
purchases 45% watching
more Netflix
14 © IpsosA FAST-CHANGING CLIMATE OF OPINION examples from other countries 15 ‒ © Ipsos
SPOTLIGHT on France Reacting to the lockdown 16 ‒ © Ipsos
RESPONDING TO SOCIAL ISOLATION WITH SOCIAL NETWORKS
Imposition of self-isolation on 17
March is accompanied by highest level
of social media traffic for 30 days
300,000 posts, 740,000 retweets Netherlands; 41% of people say they
One in four posts are around the increased their use of social media
consequences on daily life
Follow the links for the analysis in
French and English.
“It appears as though the French
were responding to the loss of
freedom of movement by moving
to a place of virtual expression
and exchange: ‘total isolation’ is
synonymous with ‘social
network’”
17 ‒ © IpsosSPOTLIGHT on Spain Self- assessments during the lockdown 18 ‒ © Ipsos
THINKING ABOUT WHERE WE ARE TODAY
One way to look at the key stages of the journey through an epidemic.
DISBELIEF I feel confusion and fear, as there is inaccurate information and lots of rumours
I start to change my plans, to stock up on provisions, getting to grips with particular products
PREPARATION
being sold out or in short supply
Adjusting day by day to the new restrictions and measures as they are announced. Working
ADJUSTMENT
out new routines
Settling into new routines and facing the daily challenges of boredom and forced contact with
ACCLIMATISATION family. Discovering positive aspects of the situation, such as exploring new activities and
interests
Tension builds with time, with the restriction of movement and reduced social contact affecting
ENDURANCE
mood and relationships. All aggravated by the uncertainty of how long this will last
Feelings of relief when businesses start to reopen, signalling that the end is in sight. Looking
RELIEF
forward to getting back to life as it was
Feelings of relief when businesses start to reopen, signalling that the end is in sight. But new
FEAR
concerns arise about work, finances and the economic consequences
19 ‒ © IpsosSPAIN FINDS ITSELF IN THE “ADJUSTMENT” PHASE
Adapting to the situation and working out new routines
| 19 Marzo 2020 |
“I’m doing as the government “I’m a bit worried, but “As well as having to go to
DISBELIEF 12% says, adapting along the relaxed at the same time. work and not caring if I catch
way. It’s exhausting” Although I haven’t left home, the virus, my boss this
PREPARATION I have had spare time to morning told me that I have
5%
disconnect, practice to take holiday because of
meditation and have been coronavirus. It makes me
“These are hard times and
ADJUSTMENT 55% I’m sad about everything that
spending more time
practicing yoga. Of course I
angry that businesses are
taking advantage of the
is being lost – above all so hope they will find a situation.”
many deaths in such little vaccine/treatment soon for
ACCLIMATISATION 16% time. As a population we are the virus.”
reluctantly accepting the
recommendations.” “I feel ‘trapped’, like
“We are obviously very everyone else. But it’s also
ENDURANCE 12% affecting my general
worried, we don’t know
where all this is going – wellbeing – I feel very
people panic buying, children down.”
RELIEF 0% at home, without knowing
“I’m confused and anxious.
when it will end. It’s
I didn’t we would get to this
overwhelming, I feel
point.”
FEAR 0% overwhelmed.”
From the experiences of people in other countries, we see some key stages moving through the journey of the Covid-19 pandemic.
20 ‒ © Ipsos Which phrase best describes how you are feeling today? Base: 557 participants. Ipsos W&W Community en España.SPOTLIGHT on Italy Looking outside the EU for help 21 ‒ © Ipsos
HOSPITALS AND (LOCAL) GOVERNMENT STILL TRUSTED… 22 ‒ © Ipsos
BUT LITTLE TRUST IN EU, MORE TRUST IN CHINESE MEASURES 23 ‒ © Ipsos
FIRST SIGNALS OF COVID-19 IMPACT ON DUTCH PUBLIC OPINION 24 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
RALLY AROUND THE FLAG 25 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
RALLY AROUND THE FLAG
Mostly an American
phenomenon
Surge in support for
presidents
Usually short-term
Source: https://source.wustl.edu/2010/06/anger-drives-support-for-wartime-presidents/
26 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc NameRALLY AROUND THE FLAG
100%
80% Trust in government
+ 22 points
Satisfaction with PM Rutte
60% Satisfaction with government
+ 15 points
+ 23 points
40%
59%
54%
20%
37% 40% 39%
17%
0%
March February March February March February
27 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
Source: Ipsos online polls, n=1000 per poll, nationally representative samples. March 27-29, February 21-24 2020.RALLY AROUND THE FLAG
FEB-20 SEATS MAR-20 SEATS Δ
VVD 27 35 +8
PVV 18 15 -3
CDA 14 14
D66 13 13
GL 15 14 -1
SP 7 7
PvdA 14 15 +1
CU 6 6
PvdD 6 6
50Plus 10 10
SGP 3 3
DENK 2 2
FvD 15 10 -5
28 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
Source: Ipsos online polls, n=1000 per poll, nationally representative samples. March 27-29, February 21-24 2020.CHANGES IN THE POLITICAL AGENDA 29 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
CHANGES IN THE POLITICAL AGENDA
Short-term
Top 5 issues for voters
MAR-20
1. Healthcare 59% +19 points
2. Coronavirus 57%
3. Education 21% -12 points
4. Climate change 20% -22 points
5. Jobs 18% +9 points
30 ‒ © Ipsos | Doc Name
Source: Ipsos online polls, n=1000 per poll, nationally representative samples. March 27-29, February 21-24 2020.CORONAVIRUS: The story so far
1CORONAVIRUS
2
A FAST
3
CHANGING
BECOMES CHANGING BEHAVIOURS:
REAL CLIMATE OF The early signs
OPINION
31 © IpsosA ‘shock’ to the
Making eco-system!
Covid-19 has
sense of produced a tsunami
of new signals that
are impacting life now
events and may result in
impending change to
our future societies.
© Ipsos © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly ConfidentialLOTS OF ACTIVITIES SWITCH TO ONLINE, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FUTURE? 33 ‒ © Ipsos
A REPORTED RISE IN E-COMMERCE IN CHINA AND ITALY IN
PARTICULAR – SIGN OF THINGS TO COME IN OTHER COUNTRIES?
Using e-commerce to purchase products you would normally buy in-store
18% 16% 16% 12%
18% 18% 23%
31% 27% More frequently
7% 6% 15% 5%
10% 6%
57% 50% 55%
12% Less frequently
12% 19%
Netherlands 30%, but also potential
38% 45% 51% 38%
marketshift for food, 28% buy this more
No change
49%
57%
42%
online
I rarely or never do this activity
44% 25%
40% 21% 25%
35% 32% 35% 14% 19%
28% 27% 23% 14%
20%
13% 14% 9% 6% 7%
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United US Vietnam China India
Kingdom
What about each of the following, would you say are doing each of
the following more frequently or less frequently compared to one
© Ipsos month ago?CHANGING BEHAVIOURS (EARLY SIGNS?): CHINA CASE STUDY
Survey across China
24 February
A shift towards using
private cars
Enhanced intention to
buy a car
Sales channels: More
interested in door-to-
door test drive and car
delivery
Important attributes:
Health-related features
Access the report here
35 ‒ © IpsosMORE HEALTHIER LIFESTYLE? 36 ‒ © Ipsos
CORONAVIRUS AND BEHAVIOR CHANGE What does it mean for brands?
CORONAVIRUS MEANS FLUID TIMES
Consumer decision-making and behavior adapts based on individual and contextual characteristics.
In a fluid time, it is harder to depend on automatic behaviors that may reflect mastery of a past that no longer exists.
Physical Context Social Context Processing Motivation Ability
Channels/movement Norms and Framing & integrating Emotion and Skills
restrictions cultural influence new information identity and routines
Adaptive Decision Making
BEHAVIOR
© Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global Science Organization
38 ‒HOW “Brands are nervous about appearing to profit
from this crisis. The conversation is being had in
SHOULD
many client and agency organizations, but they
have to be absolutely sure they are helping
BRANDS
people not just making money from it, or being
seen to make money from it.”
RESPOND?
Owen Lee, Chief Creative Officer
FCB Inferno (The Drum)
© IpsosRISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE © Ipsos
RISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE © Ipsos
RISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE © Ipsos
RISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE © Ipsos
RISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE © Ipsos
RISING TO THE OCCASION WAYS BRANDS CAN HELP PEOPLE ADAPT TO A SHIFTING CONTEXT AND SUPPORT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE (OR NOT) © Ipsos
BRANDS NEED TO BE PRESENT & INVEST IN RELATIONSHIPS
It can be tempting But we have a unique
for brands to go window where brands
into cost can earn trust by
containment mode maintaining presence
in times of distress, and delivering relevant
quietly weathering value in a fluid period
the storm. of heightened anxiety.
© Ipsos
46 ‒AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR COMMERCIAL BREAKTHROUGH © Ipsos
LAST BUT NOT LEAST; CHANGES IN DUTCH SOCIETY TO BE EXPECTED Medium-term / Long-term 1. Return of Big Government? - healthcare investments - bail-out efforts - wealth redistribution 48 ‒ © Ipsos
LAST BUT NOT LEAST; CHANGES IN DUTCH SOCIETY TO BE EXPECTED Medium-term / Long-term 2. Globalisation debate - COVID-19 as a global crisis, or a crisis of globalisation? - Trump: ‘Chinese virus’ 49 ‒ © Ipsos
LAST BUT NOT LEAST; CHANGES IN DUTCH SOCIETY TO BE
EXPECTED
Medium-term / Long-term
3. Privacy debate
- Governments keeping tabs on
the outbreak, but also on
citizens?
- Data sharing and the power of
Big Tech
50 ‒ © Ipsos
Picture: The Economist March 28 – April 3.SIGNALS Understanding the coronavirus crisis 3 April 2020 AN IPSOS WEBINAR Eric Landwaart Chief Client officer Maaike Goes Head of Marketing © Ipsos
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