September 06 2021 Daily Forex Analysis - Finveo
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
September 06 2021 Daily Forex Analysis
Daily News
• On the first trading day of the week, when the U.S markets will be closed, the effect of weak U.S non-farm employment data is observed. On the Japanese side,
the expectation of more incentives after the resignation decision reflects positively on the markets. On the day when the U.S and Canadian markets will be
closed for Labor Day, Asia Pacific stock markets are rising, led by Japan. Japanese shares rose more than 1 % as hopes for more stimulus rose in Japan on news
that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will step down as leader of the ruling LDP. Topix hits its highest level in 30 years. Other Asian stock markets are also rising
after weak U.S jobs data. China Shanghai Compound is at a premium of close to 2 %. U.S futures are flat. Oil prices are falling due to Saudi Arabia's price cut.
The U.S crude oil planting futures contract, which fell 1 % on Friday, fell 1.2% to $ 68.5. The Brent November contract, which closed Friday with a decrease of
0.6 %, found buyers at $ 71.7 with a decrease of 1.2 %. The CBRT will release its August Price Developments assessment today. This week, Joe Biden is expected
to announce his election for the Fed chair.
• U.S economic calendar is quiet for a short week due to holidays: producer price inflation figures will be the most important data. Unemployment claims
numbers may draw more attention than usual after the big loss in Friday's jobs report. After the disappointment of the August employment report, the
statements of Fed officials will also attract attention. Equity markets may continue to gain support after the jobs report undermined the argument for a
reduction in the short term. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to discuss whether to reduce stimulus at this week's meeting.
China will share trade and inflation data and is expected to show that the recovery in the world's number two economy is losing momentum.
• The ECB is meeting on Thursday against calls by some hawkish politicians to start slowing the stimulus program that began during the pandemic amid recent
inflation spikes. Inflation in the euro area reached a 10-year high of 3%. Although the ECB points out that the increase in inflation may be temporary, some
officials think differently. Markets are starting to react to the possibility of eurozone inflation to be more stable and the ECB to reduce stimulus. On Monday,
China will release trade data for August. On Wednesday, both consumer and producer inflation figures for the last month will be shared. These figures will be
released after the latest weak economic data showing that the recovery in the country's economy has lost momentum due to the restrictions imposed to
prevent the spread of the Delta variant. China's service sector activity contracted sharply in August, according to a special survey on Friday . A similar
manufacturing survey showed factory activity last month contracted for the first time in nearly a year and a half. This slowdown has increased expectations that
Beijing will offer more support to revive growth.
• EUR/USD is trading under pressure, heading towards 1.1850, shrugging off the upbeat German factory data. The pair is
EUR/USD retreating, as the US dollar recovers ground following a disappointing NFP-led slide. The focus turns to the ECB meeting this
week, with tapering expectations back on the table. The U.S Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the
greenback against the six majors, rebounds near 92.00, which pushes EUR/USD into a lower trajectory. The U.S economy
added 372K new jobs in August. Much below the market expectations of 750K rise. The Unemployment Rate fell to 5.2% in
August from the previous 5.4%. The shared currency gained on the broad-based USD selling following the disappointing NFP
data on Friday. European Central Bank might start talking about limiting the emergency bond-buying. ECB Vice President Luis
de Guindos remained positive about the bloc’s economic recovery and paving the way for the eventual withdrawal of the
stimulus package.
• Resistance: 1,1890– 1,1908- 1,930
• Support: 1,1856– 1,1834 - 1,1812
• GBP/USD takes offers around 1.3850 while marking the first daily loss in five heading into Monday’s London open. In doing
so, the quote refreshes intraday low while flashing 0.18% downside on a day. The coronavirus woes and an off in the US join
GBP/USD a light calendar to weigh on the market sentiment, underpinning the US dollar. Also negative for the GBP/USD prices are the
headlines covering the Brexit fears and tax-hike in the UK. In addition to the Brexit and covid woes, global economic fears,
recently underpinned by the U.S jobs report for August, exert additional downside pressure on the GBP/USD prices. Given
the lack of major data/events, as well as the UK holiday, GBP/USD may extend the latest pullback moves as the U.S Dollar
Index (DXY) attempts recovery on mildly cautious sentiment.
• Resistance: 1,3880 – 1,3910 - 1,3960
• Support: 1,3800– 1,3770 - 1,3730
• Gold climbed to a one-month high on Friday after following a flat course as investors focused on employment data in the U.S
XAU/USD last week. Gold prices started the new week around $1,826 after hitting over $1,830 on Friday as U.S nonfarm payrolls data
dropped to a 7-month low. Employment is at the top of the data that the Fed focuses on for the asset purchase reduction
calendar. In his speeches, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that the reduction in asset purchases could begin this
year, with the employment market showing a remarkable improvement. The stronger-than-expected employment data may
support the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Last week, as investors focused on employment data, ounce of
gold, which completed the week with a relatively flat course, rose to $1,833 after the non-farm employment data released on
Friday. After gradually decreasing, the ounce gold started the new week around $1,826.
• Resistance: 1832$ - 1839 $ - 1847$
• Support: 1819$ - 1812 $ - 1804$
• Oil prices fell as Saudi Arabia lowered oil prices for Asian customers. Futures fell 1 % to just under $69 a barrel in the New
York market on Friday. Saudi Arabia has cut the price of its oil to be delivered in October, almost twice as expected. While it
BRENTOIL is estimated that Saudi Arabia has made discounts in order not to lose its market share, it is thought that with the increase in
the delta variant, the manufacturers in the market will be in a tight competition to not lose their market share. Iranian
President Ibrahim Reisi said that they are ready to resume the nuclear talks in Vienna, the capital of Austria, which were
suspended in June, but that they will not accept negotiations under pressure. West Texas Oil for October delivery was down
1 % to trade around $68.58 a barrel on the Nymex market. Brent oil for November delivery fell 1.1 % to $71.80 a barrel after
falling 0.6 % on Friday on the London ICE Futures Europe market.
• Resistance: 72,31 $ - 73,13 $ - 74,11 $
• Support: 71,10 $ - 70,22 $ - 69,29 $
• S&P 500 Futures portray a dull start to the key week, down 0.10% intraday around 4,530 during early Monday. Australian
stocks closed modestly higher on Friday. Among the major miners, BHP Group, Rio Tinto and OZ Minerals are edging down 0.2
S&P500 % each, while Mineral Resources is losing almost 1 %. Fortescue Metals is adding more than 1 %. Oil stocks are mostly lower,
with Oil Search, Santos and Beach energy losing more than 2 percent each, while Origin Energy and Woodside Petroleum are
down almost 2 percent each. Santos and Oil Search have agreed to extend their period of exclusive due diligence for another
week before finalising a $22 billion merger deal. Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are losing
more than 1 % each, while National Australia Bank and ANZ Banking are declining almost 1 % each.
• Resistance: 4,540 – 4,551 – 4,565
• Support: 4,523 – 4,4509 – 4,496Daily Stock News • Kroger Company (NYSE: KR), will release its 2021 second quarter results ahead of the market opening on Friday, Sept. Analysts expect earnings of $0.6281 per share with sales of $30.56 billion. Kroger announced that same-store sales excluding fuel fell at a slower rate in June than analysts had predicted, as consumers returned to their normal shopping habits after a year of stocking up . Compared to the same quarter of 2019, total sales including fuel grew by 10.9%. However, the Cincinnati-based company continues to benefit from the persistence of some behaviors acquired during the epidemic. One of these behaviors is the increased consumption of fresh produce, such as meat and vegetables, which are higher margin products. Kroger stock has gained 50% this year as sales increased and the company's participation in the US vaccination efforts against COVID-19. The company has vaccinated millions across the country, gaining more repeat customers for its pharmacy and supermarket divisions. Kroger recorded record sales of $132.5 billion in a year ending June 30. (Positive) • GameStop (NYSE: GME), will release its second-quarter results on Wednesday, September 8, after the market close. Analysts averaged a loss of $0.66 per share with sales of $1.12 billion. Activist investor Ryan Cohen, who became GameStop's Chairman of the Board after raising a 13% stake, told investors in June that he would not disappoint them. GME shares, which closed Friday at $202.75, have lost more than 20% in the past three months. The stock has been very volatile in the past year, gaining around 2,500%. (Neutral) • Boeing (NYSE: BA), Singapore's aviation regulator announced on Monday that the Boeing Co 737 MAX has confirmed the return to service more than two years after the aircraft was grounded, making it the latest country in the Asia Pacific region to do so. The company said in a presentation in May that Singapore Airlines has six planes and plans to take delivery of eight more in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022. (Positive)
Currency Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
EURUSD 1,1868 -0,10 -0,10 -2,85
GBPUSD 1,3844 -0,19 -0,19 1,27
USDJPY 109,79 -0,07 -0,07 -5,96
USDCHF 0,9148 -0,15 -0,15 -3,24
EURGBP 0,85725 -0,01 -0,47 4,26
INDEX FUTURE Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
SPA INDEX 4534,4 -0,02 0,00 21,57
GXA INDEX 15776 0,00 0,00 14,87
DMA INDEX 35341 -0,03 -0,03 16,51
Commodities Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
GC1 Comdty 1826,8 -0,26 -0,26 -3,60
XAUUSD Curncy 1826,36 -0,07 -0,07 -3,79
CLA Comdty 68,57 -1,04 -1,04 42,82
CO1 Comdty 71,82 -1,09 -1,09 38,65
Time Cur. Event
08:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
09:30 GBP BoE MPC Members Saunders Speaks
10:30 GBP Construction PMI (Aug)
10:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
All-Day USD Holiday - United States Labor DayYou can also read
