Richard GADAS, Oliver KOCH, Kay PARPLIES, Hubert BEUVE-MÉRY (1) - European Commission

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Competition Policy Newsletter

Ryanair/Aer Lingus: Even “low-cost” monopolies can harm

                                                                                                                                MERGER CONTROL
consumers
Richard GADAS, Oliver KOCH, Kay PARPLIES, Hubert BEUVE-MÉRY (1)

I. Introduction                                                  more than 30 Irish routes (). Since also a “low-
                                                                 cost” or “low-fares” monopolist ultimately aims at
The Ryanair/Aer Lingus case, which concerned a                   maximising its profits, Ryanair would thus have
proposed merger of the two leading airlines oper-                had the ability and incentive to raise prices (by
ating from Ireland, raised a number of interest-                 increasing fares or various associated charges)
ing procedural, legal and economic questions and                 and/or decrease quality of its services on these
required a particularly careful investigation ().               routes. This would have had an immediate effect
The Commission found that the acquisition would                  for more than 14 million passengers who are
have led to very high market shares on more                      currently flying each year on the routes directly
than 30 routes from/to Ireland, reducing choice                  affected by the merger.
for consumers and exposing them to a high risk
of price increases. The merger would have com-                   The in-depth investigation of the Commission
bined two airlines with a similar operation model                not only made use of the “classic” investigative
(“low-frills”) and with a significant presence in                techniques such as questionnaires and telephone
particular at Dublin Airport, where they would                   interviews. In addition, the Commission has com-
together account for approximately 80% of Euro-                  missioned a specific customer survey at Dublin
pean short-haul traffic. Based on these findings,                Airport, and has complemented its work with a
the Commission ultimately prohibited the trans-                  number of detailed econometric analyses which
action in June 2007 (). It was the first prohibition            are further described in a separate article in this
decision since December 2004 and the first time                  issue ().
an airline merger was prohibited.
                                                                 II. The parties and the transaction
The acquisition of Aer Lingus by Ryanair was
in many aspects different from previous airline                  Ryanair is an airline offering point-to-point
merger cases, which involved “network” carriers                  scheduled air transport services on more than
and combined two airlines with operations at dif-                400 routes across 24 European countries. Ryanair
ferent airports, often in different countries. Unlike            operates more than 75 routes between Ireland
those rather “complementary” mergers, ­Ryanair’s                 (mainly Dublin, but also Shannon, Cork, Kerry and
proposed acquisition of Aer Lingus would have                    Knock) and other European countries. The com-
combined the two by far largest airlines at one                  pany has a fleet of around 120 aircraft and more
and the same airport (Dublin), both operating                    than 20 bases across Europe, the most important
according to “point-to-point” and “low-cost/low-                 ones being London-Stansted and ­Dublin.
fares” business models. Although an expansion of                 Aer Lingus is a Dublin-based airline. Like Ryanair,
Ryanair, the European pioneer for cheap flights,                 it offers point-to point scheduled air transport
might intuitively sound like being in the ­interest              services on more than 70 routes connecting the
of consumers, the Commission found that the                      Irish airports of Dublin, Shannon and Cork with
transaction would not have been a good deal for                  a number of European and several non-European
the affected passengers, since it would have elimi-              destinations. In addition Aer Lingus offers long-
nated Ryanair’s only significant ­ competitor on                 haul flights, mainly to the Unites States, and cargo
                                                                 transport services and seats to tour operators.
                                                                 Aer Lingus is based principally at Dublin Airport
                                                                 (and to a smaller extent in Cork and Shannon)
(1) Directorate-General for Competition, units D-4, B-1, 02      with a total fleet of 30 short-haul and 9 long-haul
    and F-1 respectively. The content of this article does not   ­aircraft.
    necessarily reflect the official position of the European
    Communities. Responsibility for the information and
    views expressed lies entirely with the authors.
(2) See also the article «Econometric and survey evidence in     (4) It should be noted that the merger would, in addition to
    the competitive assessment of the Ryanair / Air Lingus           actual competition on these routes, also have eliminated
    merger» in this issue of the Competition Policy Newslet-         potential competition on a number of further routes.
    ter (page 73).                                               (5) See also the article “Econometric and survey evidence in
(3) COMP/M.4439 — Ryanair/Aer Lingus, decision of                    the competitive assessment of the Ryanair / Air Lingus
    27.6.2007; see: http://ec.europa.eu/competition/mergers/         merger» in this issue of the Competition Policy Newslet-
    cases/index/m88.html#m_4439.                                     ter (page 73).

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Merger control

The transaction concerned a proposed acquisi-             short-haul flights from/to Ireland, which would
tion of sole control by Ryanair of Aer Lingus by          have been based in particular on the supply-side
way of a public bid for all outstanding shares not        substitutability between different routes from the
already acquired announced on 5 October 2006.             common base of the parties in Dublin, was not
The fact that Ryanair’s bid had technically lapsed        upheld, mainly because the supply-side substitu-
after the opening of the Phase II did not remove          tion (switching capacity between routes to/from
the Commission’s jurisdiction, since Ryanair had          Dublin by airlines) would not be sufficiently
announced to make a new bid should the Com-               immediate and effective. Further, this market def-
mission clear the transaction.                            inition would disregard the lack of demand-side
                                                          substitution between different routes for a large
Like in previous airline merger cases, the Com-
                                                          majority of customers. However, the relevant sup-
mission had to find a meaningful method for the
                                                          ply side considerations were not disregarded but
allocation of the turnover of the Merging Parties’
                                                          were addressed within the framework of the com-
in the respective Member States. After a careful
                                                          petitive assessment of individual routes.
assessment of this issue and the different calcula-
tion methods, the Commission concluded that the           “City-to-city” approach
transaction fulfils the criteria of Article 1(3) of the
Merger Regulation and thus fell within the juris-         Ryanair argued that the relevant O&D markets
diction of the Commission.                                should be limited to airport-to-airport pairs as,
                                                          according to Ryanair, even in cases where there
III. Market definition                                    are more airports in or in the vicinity of a particu-
                                                          lar city, the customer do not regard these airports
The activities of Ryanair and Aer Lingus overlap          as substitutable. By contrast, the Commission’s
in the field of scheduled passenger air transport         investigation showed that a large number of these
services within the EEA.                                  airports are regarded by the customers as substi-
Ryanair is no market of its own                           tutable and that the relevant O&D pairs should
                                                          for many routes rather be defined on a city-to-city
Ryanair argued that due to the specificity of its         basis. The qualitative () as well as the quantita-
business model and its extremely low cost basis,          tive () analysis confirmed the substitutability of
its pricing is not constrained by any airline but         airports for final passengers for 18 out of the in
rather by consumers’ overall discretionary spend-         total 20 routes with exclusively city-to-city but
ing. While the Commission acknowledged that               not airport-to-airport overlaps. Serving different
Ryanair is indeed a “classic” no-frills carrier, the      airports is thus only an element of differentiation
market investigation did not support that Ryanair         between competing airline services within one
was not in competition with other airlines. Both          market and does not justify defining two different
airlines are active in the differentiated market for      markets.
scheduled passenger air transport services, where
different airlines operate with a number of dif-          Indirect flights are disregarded
ferent business and service models. Aer Lingus is         The market investigation also confirmed that
indeed positioned somewhat more “up-market”               ­indirect flights and other means of transport can-
than Ryanair, i.e. it provides some additional serv-       not in general be regarded as substitutes for the
ices (for instance it also flies into more expensive       direct flights of the parties on the overlap routes.
main airports while Ryanair flies only into sec-           Only intra-European flights with their short jour-
ondary ones), which is reflected by the fact that          ney times are affected by the transaction. The
Aer Lingus’ average fares are higher than Rya-             Commission also in the past in general excluded
nair’s. However, both Ryanair and Aer Lingus are           indirect flights for these types of routes (subject
considered as “low-frills” carriers by customers,
and despite a certain level of product differentia-
                                                          (6) The qualitative analysis focused on a number of factors
tion, both companies currently compete with each              such as distance and travelling times from the airports
other on the affected routes.                                 to the relevant city, available transport connections,
                                                              travel costs for different airports, available flight sche-
Point-to-point services                                       dules and quality of services at different airports, views
                                                              of competitors and customers, studies conducted by the
In line with the previous decision practice of the            airports (if available) or how the relevant airport is mar-
Commission, the relevant product market was                   keted by the carriers flying there.
defined as point-to-point scheduled air transport         (7) The quantitative analysis consisted inter alia in the cor-
services, whereby each route between a point-                 relation analysis of the parties’ fares for flights to dif-
                                                              ferent airports over time. In a number of cases, a high
of-origin and point-of-destination is defined as              correlation between fares for flights to different airports
a separate market (O&D approach). The other                   further confirmed the conclusions of the qualitative
option, namely to define an overall market for                analysis about airport substitutability.

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to some case-by-case exceptions). Further, as this        Conclusion on market definition

                                                                                                                                 MERGER CONTROL
case concerns primarily point-to-point passengers
with no (Ryanair) or only limited (Aer Lingus)            On the basis of this market definition and in
connecting services, indirect flights are even more       view of the flights offered by the merging parties
unattractive for the customers. In view of the geo-       at the time of the Commission decision, the pro-
graphic characteristics of Ireland, other means of        posed transaction led to actual overlaps between
transport are either not available (e.g. high speed       the merging parties in 35 markets defined as
trains) or not competitive with air transport (e.g.       individual O&D pairs (). Further, the proposed
bus/ferry).                                               transaction also raised competition concerns on
                                                          some other markets where currently only one of
No significant impact of charter airlines                 the merging parties operates and where the other
                                                          party is considered as the most likely potential
Ryanair put forward that in particular on the pre-        entrant.
dominantly leisure routes, charter airlines provide
significant competitive constraints to the services       IV. Competitive Effects of the Merger
of the parties. However, the market investigation
did not confirm that charter airlines would to a          As already mentioned above, the Ryanair / Aer
significant extent constrain the merging parties          Lingus merger was different from the previous
on the Irish routes. Charter seats are predomi-           air transport cases assessed by the Commission,
nantly sold in Ireland as part of package holidays,       combining two “low-frills” carriers concentrat-
are distributed largely through tour operators,           ing on point-to-point traffic within Europe, with a
provide less flexibility as the flights are often oper-   significant presence at their strong bases at Dublin
ated only on weekends and only seasonally. In             Airport.
Ireland, unlike in other countries, charter airlines      Indeed, Ryanair and Aer Lingus would have
offer only very few so-called “dry seats”, i.e. seats     together accounted for approximately 80% of
that are sold separately and not as part of a holi-       European short-haul traffic to and from Dublin
day package to end customers and are more closer          post-merger, by far exceeding their next com-
to services offered by the merging parties. The           petitors on these routes, as set out in the diagram
Commission left open whether “dry seats” sold             below:
by charter airlines may be considered as belong-
ing to the affected relevant markets as even if “dry      Graph 1: S
                                                                    hares of European passengers to and
seats” sales were taken into account, the competi-                 from Dublin (2006)
                                                                                                                    Ryanair &
tive assessment of the case would not be affected                                                                  Aer Lingus:
due to their insignificant volumes.                                                                                  ~
                                                                                                                       80 %

No separate market for “time-sensitive”
                                                                                                                      Aer
passengers                                                                                                          Lingus

Further, the Commission has in the past cases
involving network carriers such as Lufthansa or
                                                            British     Air   Lufthansa:  Aer     BMI:   Others:
Air France differentiated between time-sensitive            Airways   France:            Arann:                     Ryanair
Merger control

Very high market shares on a large number                    ties are not the closest competitors as they are dif-
of routes                                                    ferent and occupy different spaces in the markets
                                                             in which they operate. Further, Ryanair argued
Not the least because both airlines operate from             that there are no significant barriers to entry
the same main airport, Aer Lingus’ and Ryanair’s             due to airport congestion and that the position
operations overlap on an unprecedented large                 of the merging parties in Dublin and in Ireland
number of individual routes, as shown in the fol-            in general would not prevent competing airlines
lowing graph:                                                from entering the affected markets or even from
Graph 2: 3 5 direct route overlaps between                  basing aircraft in Ireland. Ryanair claimed that
          Ryanair and Aer Lingus (2007)                      there are a number of competing airlines which
                                                             would be able to enter the overlap routes in case
                                                             the merged entity would increase prices. Accord-
                                                             ing to Ryanair these potential competitors do not
                                                             have to be based at Dublin airport to constitute
                                                             an effective constraint but could enter the relevant
                                                             routes either from their existing base at the desti-
                                                             nation non-Irish airport or even without any base
                                                             at either end of the route. These arguments were,
                                                             however, not confirmed by the Commission’s in-
                                                             depth market investigation.

                                                             Elimination of competition between the
                                                             closest competitors on Irish routes
                                                             Despite being a former state-owned Irish flag car-
                                                             rier, Aer Lingus has significantly changed its busi-
Ryanair’s and Aer Lingus’ operations do not over-            ness model recently and has repositioned itself as
lap only insignificantly on these 35 routes. On the          a “low-frills” airline, focussing on point-to-point
contrary, on all these routes Aer Lingus and/or              services on its short-haul routes. The services
Ryanair are the strongest airline(s), and the trans-         included in the Aer Lingus base fare are broadly in
action would lead to monopoly on not less than 22            line with those included in the Ryanair base fare.
routes, and to very high combined market shares              Even though there continue to be some differences
on a further 13 routes, as can be seen from the fol-         in the services offered by both carriers, which are
lowing table.                                                also reflected in their different fare level, this does
                                                             not exclude existence of effective competitive con-
                  Routes                       Combined      straints between them. On the contrary, the market
                                              market share
                                                             investigation confirmed that on the routes where
 Dublin — Alicante; Berlin; Bilbao/Vitoria;      100%        both operate, each of them takes into account the
 Birmingham; Bologna; Brussels;                              fares and services offered by the other and adjust
 Edinburgh; Faro; Hamburg/Lübeck; Lyon;                      its operations and fares accordingly. Further, most
 Marseille; Milan; Newcastle; Poznan;
 Rome; Salzburg; Seville; Tenerife;
                                                             of the competitors present on the overlap routes
 Toulouse/Carcassonne; Venice                                are either full-service network carriers or smaller
 Shannon — London; Cork — London                             regional airlines, often focusing on business cus-
                                                             tomers, which cannot be considered as close com-
 Dublin — Glasgow; Malaga; Manchester         [90-100%]
                                                             petitors to the parties. Finally, the customer survey
 Dublin — Frankfurt; Paris                     [80-90%]      conducted as part of the investigation among the
                                                             passengers at Dublin airport showed that passen-
 Dublin — Barcelona; Krakow; London;           [70-80%]
 Riga; Vienna/Bratislava
                                                             gers consider the parties to be closer substitutes
                                                             than other carriers. The investigation has thus
 Dublin — Madrid; Warsaw                       [60-70%]      confirmed that the services of the merging parties
 Cork — Manchester                                           are close substitutes in a differentiated market for
                                                             passenger air transport services. There is a high
Despite these high market shares, the Commis-                degree of competition between Ryanair and Aer
sion has, as in previous airline cases, investigated         Lingus for destinations, capacity, schedules, prices
to what extent these shares do actually translate            and service to/from Ireland.
into a significant impediment to effective compe-
tition. Ryanair has indeed provided several argu-            The Commission has notably found that both air-
ments why the merger would not lead to competi-              lines regularly monitor the prices of the other on
tion concerns: It argued that the two merging par-           the overlap routes with the help of specialised soft-

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Competition Policy Newsletter

ware and adjust their prices in reaction to the price           riers would be in a position to effectively replace

                                                                                                                         MERGER CONTROL
level of the other. This is confirmed by the fact that          Aer Lingus with its current flexibility and cost effi-
in marketing campaigns they both present their                  ciency to compete on a number of routes to/from
low fares as a key argument and they often com-                 Ireland. Any new entrant would face a strong and
pare themselves to one another. The merger would                established merged entity with substantial cost
thus remove the important competitive rivalry                   advantage which would be able to react quickly to
between the two parties on a number of routes                   any selective entry on only a few routes.
on which their activities overlap and thus lead
to higher prices. This was also confirmed by the                The significant entry costs and risks relate to the
Commission’s regression analysis which provided                 fact that Irish intra-European flights are now
additional quantitative evidence about the effect               dominated by Ryanair and Aer Lingus who have
of the presence of Ryanair on Aer Lingus fares.                 well established brands and a portfolio of a large
                                                                number of routes. Competing against these two
Apart from competing on direct overlap routes,                  brands makes competition much more difficult
the fact that both carriers have significant bases at           than in other countries where there are not such
the same airport () leads to a dynamic competitive             two well-established low-frills carriers present
environment where both carriers frequently enter                with large bases. Further, there are significant
and exit new routes to/from Dublin. The transac-                shares of Irish-originating passengers on many
tion therefore would not only remove the actual                 of the overlap routes. Therefore, any new entrant
competition between the parties on the overlap                  would have to invest substantial amounts into
routes, but eliminate Ryanair and Aer Lingus as                 marketing and promotion in Ireland. In addition,
the most likely potential entrant on existing routes            there were several examples of aggressive reaction
to/from Ireland currently served by only one of                 by Ryanair against new entrants on the Irish mar-
them, i.e. it would remove potential competition                kets who were subsequently driven out of the Irish
between the parties. The merger would remove                    routes. A number of competing airlines thus indi-
the competitive rivalry between Ryanair and Aer                 cated that, taking into account the limited volume
Lingus on routes to/from Ireland which was at                   of the Irish market and the investments and risks
least one of the sources for a major expansion of               involved in establishing a presence in this market,
the Irish short-haul routes in recent years.                    they would have better opportunities elsewhere in
                                                                Europe.
Barriers to entry to the affected markets
are high                                                        As regards the capacity constraints in terms of
                                                                slots, such constraints played a less prominent
The Commission’s investigation confirmed that                   role compared to previous air transport merger
there are substantial barriers to entry to the routes           cases, since in particular Ryanair mainly flies to
where the activities of the merging parties over-               “secondary”, non-congested airports. At some
lap. These barriers to entry relate in particular to:           airports, however, congestion was identified as a
(i) a disadvantage of not having large operations               barrier to entry by the Commission. Notably at
(“bases”) in Dublin; (ii) significant entry costs and           Dublin Airport, where the congestion problems
risks for any new competitor in a market which                  were limited to the peak hours of the day, con-
is already served by two strong airlines with                   gestion was mentioned as a significant barrier
well-established brands in particular in Ireland;               by potential entrants to compete effectively with
(iii) Ryanair’s reputation to react aggressively to             Aer Lingus and Ryanair in particular on those
entrants; (iv) capacity constraints at Dublin air-              routes where high frequency services covering
port as well as at some destination airports.                   peak times of the day are necessary. Further, on a
The Commission found evidence confirming that                   number of these routes, congestion at the destina-
a large base in Dublin provides important cost                  tion airports (in particular London, Paris, Frank-
advantages and flexibility for any carrier operat-              furt or Milan) also created a barrier to entry for
ing routes to/from Dublin. Therefore, removal of                those carriers which for the supply-side reasons
Aer Lingus as the main actual or potential com-                 do not have the possibility to efficiently use any
petitor of Ryanair based in Dublin would inevi-                 possible substitute airport (such as Paris-Beauvais
tably soften the competitive constraints faced by               or Frankfurt — Hahn).
Ryanair on the Irish routes. None of the other car-             Competitors were not likely to replace the
(9) At the time of the Commission decision, Ryanair and
                                                                loss of competition
    Aer Lingus based at Dublin airport 20 and 23 short-haul     In view of the barriers to entry described above,
    aircraft respectively while the other Dublin based airli-
    nes, Aer Arann and Air France/Cityjet, had only 4 and       the Commission’s market investigation further
    3 smaller aircraft based in Dublin and several other air-   focused on identifying any carriers which would
    lines overnighted only one aircraft each.                   have the ability and incentive to enter the over-

Number 3 — 2007	69
Merger control

lap routes and provide efficient competitive con-       to Ryanair, this would enable it to lower Aer Lin-
straints to the merged entity. The Commission           gus’ operating costs towards its own levels. The
has carefully assessed to what extent individual        claimed efficiencies would originate in the fields
competitors might have the intention and ability        of aircraft ownership costs, ground operations,
to enter into direct competition with Ryanair/Aer       staff costs, maintenance costs, airport charges,
Lingus post-merger in case of a price increase. The     ancillary sales and distribution efficiencies.
Commission’s investigation showed that there is
                                                        As regards the first criterion (verifiability), the
a likelihood of post-merger entry only on very
                                                        Commission found that Ryanair’s efficiency claim
few routes and that this limited entry would not
                                                        was hardly verifiable, mainly because it consisted
be likely to provide a significant competitive con-
                                                        essentially of a general assertion that Ryanair
straint to the merged entity.
                                                        would transfer its business model and in particular
The potential entrants analysed in more detail          the related cost levels to Aer Lingus, without tak-
in the decision include Air France/CityJet, Aer         ing into account implications for product charac-
Arann, easyJet, British Airways, bmi/bmibaby,           teristics and revenue of Aer Lingus. With respect
Flybe/BA Connect, SkyEurope, Air Berlin, and            to the condition of “merger specificity”, the analy-
Clickair. However, most of these carriers were          sis revealed that a number of the claimed efficien-
reluctant to compete directly with Ryanair/Aer          cies were not merger specific, since they could be
Lingus, referring to the above described barriers       achieved by Aer Lingus even without the merger
to entry and difficulties they would face in estab-     and did not originate from economic synergies
lishing their operations against the strong posi-       between the two carriers. Finally, the claimed effi-
tion of the merged entity. The investigation clearly    ciencies would affect primarily Aer Lingus’ fixed
showed that no airlines could be expected to enter      costs, which makes it uncertain that they would
in competition against Ryanair/Aer Lingus on the        be passed on to consumers. In addition, as indi-
short-haul routes to/from Ireland at a larger scale,    cated in the Horizontal Merger Guidelines, the
providing a competitive constraint on the merged        Commission noted that it is highly unlikely that
entity comparable to the constraint currently           a merger leading to a market position approach-
exercised by Aer Lingus.                                ing that of a monopoly, can be declared compat-
                                                        ible with the common market on the ground that
Therefore, the market investigation did not con-
                                                        efficiency gains would be sufficient to counteract
firm that potential entry or expansion on the indi-
                                                        its potential anti-competitive effects (11).
vidual overlap routes would be likely, timely and
sufficient to constitute a competitive constraint       For these reasons the Commission was not in a
for the merged entity and would thus compensate         position to conclude that the merger would give
for the loss of the rivalry between Ryanair and Aer     rise to efficiencies that would counteract the iden-
Lingus on the affected routes.                          tified significant impediment to effective competi-
                                                        tion.
Conclusion
The Commission therefore concluded that the             VI. Proposed remedies
transaction would significantly impede effective        During the Commission’s proceedings, Rya-
competition on a large number of routes to and          nair submitted several sets of remedies aimed at
from Ireland.                                           removing the identified competition concerns.
                                                        Following the model of previous airline cases,
V. Efficiencies                                         Ryanair’s commitments mainly aimed at remov-
The Commission has also analysed whether effi-          ing entry barriers for other airlines, in particular
ciencies brought about by the merger might have         in the form of the transfer of airport slots. The last
outweighed its anti-competitive effects. In the         set of remedies submitted within the legal dead-
most detailed discussion of efficiencies in a merger    line of the Phase II proceedings included the fol-
decision so far (10), the Commission analysed           lowing main elements:
whether the conditions of the Horizontal Merger         a) Heathrow slots: Ryanair offered to make avail-
Guidelines (i.e. verifiability, merger specificity          able slots for the Dublin — London Heathrow
and benefit to consumers) were met. Ryanair                 route, which were exclusively reserved for Brit-
claimed that efficiencies would result essentially          ish Airways and Air France.
from applying Ryanair’s low-cost business model
and management skills to Aer Lingus. According          b) Slots for other routes from/to Dublin, Shan-
                                                            non and Cork: Ryanair offered to make avail-
                                                            able slots for other overlap routes from and to
(10) See already cases M.4000 — Inco/Falconbridge;
     M.4057 — Korsnäs/Assidomän Cartonboard; M.3732 —
     Procter & Gamble/Gillette.                         (11) See paragraph 84 of the Horizontal Guidelines.

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   Dublin, Shannon and Cork. With respect                 offered, the scope of such entry would still have

                                                                                                                     MERGER CONTROL
   to Dublin, these slots would, according to             been far too small to address the parties’ com-
   Ryanair, allow airlines to operate with up to          petitive overlap. The market test confirmed
   [4-8] aircraft based in Dublin. Ryanair fur-           that slots for the offered number of aircraft
   ther offered to make available an equivalent           based in Dublin would not suffice to replace
   number of slots at specific destination airports       the competitive constraint currently exercised
   on the overlap routes.                                 by Aer Lingus. Aer Lingus and Ryanair operate
                                                          in Dublin with 23 and 20 aircraft respectively.
c) “Up-front buyer” provision: Ryanair offered           Although Aer Lingus does not only serve the
    not to complete the acquisition of Aer Lingus         overlap routes with its 23 aircraft, the investi-
    before it has found a competitor/competitors          gation confirmed that [4-8] (12) aircraft would
    that commit to taking up the slots for the [4-8]      be insufficient to serve all overlap routes from/
    based aircraft operation at Dublin.                   to Dublin and provide sufficient competitive
d) Fare/brand-related commitments: Ryanair               constraints on the merged entity.
    offered to reduce immediately Aer Lingus’          — Slots at some important destination airports
    short-haul fares by at least 10%, to eliminate       were missing from Ryanair’s proposal.
    immediately the fuel surcharges Aer Lingus
    applies on its long-haul flights, to retain Aer    — The commitments did not ensure a significant
    Lingus’ brand and to continue to operate Rya-        entry of one single airline with a suitable busi-
    nair and Aer Lingus separately.                      ness model which would ensure that the rivalry
                                                         between the two most important low-frills car-
e) “Frequency freeze”: Ryanair offered not to           riers operating to/from Ireland eliminated by
    increase the number of frequencies on any of         the merger is restored.
    the claimed overlap routes in the event of a
    new entrant to the route, in excess of the fre-    — There were, in addition, significant doubts that
    quencies jointly operated by Ryanair and Aer         Ryanair could legally relinquish Aer Lingus’
    Lingus on each route for a period of six IATA        Heathrow slots. The airline’s Articles of Associ-
    seasons. It also offered not to reduce the fre-      ation confer certain veto rights to the minority
    quencies on these routes unless a route is or        shareholders (including the Irish government
    becomes unprofitable.                                or the Aer Lingus employees’ trust), which
                                                         would enable them to block the slot transfer.
Having analysed the proposed commitments and
                                                       — With regard to the various behavioural com-
conducted an extensive market test, the Commis-
                                                         mitments offered by Ryanair (10% reduction of
sion concluded that they fall significantly short of
                                                         Aer Lingus’ fares, abolition of fuel surcharges,
remedying the identified competition problems
                                                         frequency freeze, maintaining separate
and are, on both formal and substantive grounds,
                                                         brands), it should be noted that they do not
insufficient to remove the competition concerns.
                                                         directly address any of the identified competi-
The conclusion of the Commission was based in
                                                         tion problems. In addition, they raise numer-
particular on the following considerations:
                                                         ous questions with regard to monitoring and
— It was doubtful whether the instrument of slot         enforceability. These commitments even con-
  remedies is appropriate for the transaction at         tain elements that could lessen, rather than
  hand. Indeed, Aer Lingus and Ryanair are low-          strengthen, competition.
  frill airlines, flying to secondary and often to
                                                       — The content of the commitment proposal con-
  other non-congested airports. Airport conges-
                                                         tained numerous contradictions and vague or
  tion is not the main reason why other airlines
                                                         ambiguous formulations which put into ques-
  do not enter Ireland. A slot based remedy thus
                                                         tion the viability of the commitments as such,
  failed to address many of the other identified
                                                         since it was doubtful whether the commit-
  barriers to entry described above.
                                                         ments as submitted would be at all workable
— The market testing of the proposed remedies            and enforceable.
  clearly showed that the offered remedies are
  not likely to trigger any substantial entry on       At a very late stage of the proceedings (more than
  the overlap routes. Except for a very limited        four weeks after the legal deadline for commit-
  number of routes, there were no indications          ments) Ryanair submitted a slightly revised set
  that new entry was likely on the basis of the        of draft commitments. This text was provided
  proposed remedies.                                   explicitly in “draft” form, without signature and
                                                       without complying with the necessary formal
— The scope of the commitments was insufficient.
  Even if, hypothetically, the remedies would          (12) The precise number of aircraft is confidential to Rya-
  have triggered entry to the maximum extent                nair.

Number 3 — 2007                                                                                                71
Merger control

requirements. Following an informal reaction by         solved problems included, in particular, the legal
the Commission to the draft modified remedies,          uncertainty with respect to the London Heathrow
Ryanair chose not to submit them formally. Leav-        slots and the unspecific criteria for the upfront-
ing apart this fact, it must be acknowledged that       buyer.
the Commission can in exceptional circumstances
                                                        For these reasons, the Commission concluded that
accept modifications of submitted remedies even
                                                        the commitments offered by Ryanair are not suf-
when a renewed market test is no longer possi-
                                                        ficient to remedy the identified significant imped-
ble. Such commitments must, however, resolve
                                                        iment to effective competition and, thus, cannot
all identified competition problems in a clear-cut
                                                        render the proposed concentration compatible
fashion. This was not the case as even the modified
                                                        with the common market.
commitments would clearly have not been suffi-
cient to address all of the identified shortcomings
of the previous set of commitments. In particular,
                                                        VII. Conclusion
the draft modified commitments were still based         The Commission thus concluded that the pro-
primarily on slot transfers and did not provide         posed acquisition by Ryanair of Aer Lingus would
any new elements which would address the other          significantly impede effective competition and
identified barriers to entry and thus enable the        declared the concentration incompatible with the
Commission to re-evaluate the negative results of       common market. In view of the identified nega-
the market test as to the likelihood of actual entry.   tive effects of the transaction and clearly insuffi-
Furthermore, the scope of the guaranteed new            cient remedies proposed by Ryanair, the prohibi-
entry pursuant to the “up-front buyer” provision        tion was the only way how the Commission could
was still insufficient. The draft modified remedies     ensure that a competitive environment beneficial
also did not provide for the transfer of slots at all   to passengers on the routes to/from Ireland is
relevant destination airports. Additional unre-         maintained.

72                                                                                       Number 3 — 2007
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