Rethinking Security - Civil Security I - Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden
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Civil Security I II III IV V Rethinking Security From military to civil security Towards 2040: a scenario Abridged version Becker, Ralf & Maass, Stefan & Schneider-Harpprecht, Christoph [Eds.]
2 CONTENTS CONTENTS Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.1 Europe faces a choice: Militarisation or a transition to civil security . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.2 The starting point: The resolution of the Regional Synod. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.3 How the “Rethinking Security” scenario was created: The scenario technique. . . . . . . 6 1.4 What is our vision in practical terms? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.5 Who should bring about the transformation?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.6 Focus on the role of Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.7 Factual basis and note regarding copyright. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.8 Full-length version and distribution of the scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2 The positive scenario: „Sustainable civil security“ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1 Von 2018 bis 2040 – Meilensteine der Entwicklung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 The pillars of a German sustainable civil security policy from the year 2025 onwards . . 14 I Just foreign relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 II Sustainable development in the EU’s neighbourhood countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 III Participation in the international security architecture (EU, OSCE, NATO, UN). . . 16 IV Resilient democracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 V Conversion of the federal armed forces and the armaments industry. . . . . . . . . 23 3 Civil security in numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 4 A scenario extrapolating current trends: “Creeping Militarisation” . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 5 A negative scenario: “Close to the abyss” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 6 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Impressum: Edited by Ralf Becker, Stefan Maass & Christoph Schneider-Harpprecht (Eds.) on behalf of the Regional Protestant Church Council Year of publication: 2019 Title: Rethinking Security: From military to civil security Design: Zentrum für Kommunikation, Ulrike Fuhry, www.ekiba.de Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden, Postfach 2269, 76010 Karlsruhe Translated from the original German by Gordon Matthews
PREFACE 3 PREFACE TO THE INTERNATIONAL EDITION OF “RETHINKING SECURITY” I am delighted that one year after the publi- The resolution states: cation of “Sicherheit neu denken – Von der “Committed work for peace is rooted in militärischen zur zivilen Sicherheitspolitik” prayer and worship. Prayers for peace in the („Rethinking Security - from military to civil world are an integral part of many church ser- security”), this book is now appearing in both vices. In addition, the annual ecumenical English and French. When we published the “Peace Decade” and the International Day of scenario, “Rethinking Security”, in April 2018, Prayer for Peace (21 September) will continue we never imagined that there would be such to be occasions for celebrating worship ser- a high demand for it in Germany. We already vices for peace. Working for peace and recon- printed a second edition in January 2019. And ciliation is at the heart of the Church‘s wit- more and more people from other countries ness. This witness cannot just be left to the were approaching us and asking us to have it Church as a whole; It requires long-term com- translated. I am pleased that the Protestant mitment at every level within the Church. Church in Baden agreed to have the abridged The Church is regarded by the public as an version translated into English and French and authority on ethical issues and is rightly ex- thereby to facilitate the promotion of an inter- pected to express its views on violence, in national debate about civil security policy as justice, and persecution. an alternative to the current military security policy. As we turned our attention to peace ethics, we became aware that we have paid too little It is unusual for a church publication to arouse attention to the subject of peace and have so much interest both within the church and not done enough to strive for peace. We need outside it. And it is equally unusual for the to ask ourselves more often how much our church to make such a clear political state lifestyle and consumption aggravate conflict ment. How did this happen? and sow the seeds of war. We do not take a The starting point for this scenario was a clear enough stance, when people are threat- resolution which was put to the synod of the ened or hurt by violence. We do too little to Protestant Church in Baden in 2011 by Chris- ensure that nonviolent means are used to re- tians in one of the church districts. They solve conflicts. called for a reorientation of protestant peace We now want to take responsibility for justice ethics in accordance with the core biblical and peace. And we urge Christians at all levels messages of the Christian faith. They took of our Regional Church to do as much as they issue with the “preferential option for non can to implement the following suggestions violence”, which is advocated especially in and recommendations in their own circles.” the EKD (Evangelical Church in Germany) memorandum “Live from God’s Peace - Care The resolution then listed 12 practical propos- for Just Peace” and legitimises military vio- als and recommendations. Unfortunately the lence under certain circumstances. position paper has not yet been translated into The Protestant Church in Baden subsequently other languages in its entirety. So far only the wrote a position paper which was sent to the resolution has been translated into English. 25 church districts for discussion. There was a This resolution is the basis for our work on process of intensive discussion, at the end of peace ethics. Decision no. 6 of the resolution which the Synod resolved that it wanted “to sets out the task of creating a scenario which become a just peace church”. entails turning away from military security
4 PREFACE (see see page 6). A working group was set up Can the scenario be transposed onto other for this task and this publication is the result. countries? We hope that this book will provide ideas and suggestions which each country can This book shows that a different security pol- use to develop their own scenarios (positive, icy is possible and outlines what shape such a extrapolating current trends, and negative). policy might take. A lot of people in Germany These scenarios will turn out to be different, have been protesting against arms exports depending on the situation and the conditions and military intervention, etc. for years, be- prevailing in each country. Some initial think- cause they recognise that neither peace nor ing has already been done in the Netherlands. lasting security can be brought about by mili- We hope that a lot of people in many countries tary means. But so far, in Germany, these will set to work with as much enthusiasm as protests have not led to any change in secu- the group in the Protestant Church in Baden rity policy. We believe that it is necessary not did. And we hope they are convinced that this only to protest against injustice but also to will inspire a positive response in other coun- work for a world with a different understanding tries too. In Germany, more than 30 organisa- of security. This book shows what changes tions have now declared their willingness to might be possible between now and 2040. join a campaign for a new security policy. The focus is on German policies. Positive examples and approaches from Germany and Please let us know how you get on. You will soon also from other countries have been used as a be able to find downloadable texts in English basis for this scenario, the goal of which is to and French on our website (www.ekiba.de/ bring about a change in German policy and to friedensszenario). If you want to contact us, influence international alliances as well. This please send an e-mail to Ralf.Becker@ekiba.de book is intended to stimulate a rethinking of or Stefan.Maass@ekiba.de security policy. Karlsruhe, May 2019 Stefan Maass
1 INTRODUCTION 5 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Europe faces a choice: Militarisation or a transition to civil security • “At their summit in Newport in Wales NA- The conventional wisdom still seems to be TO’s member states agreed to make fur- that violence can get rid of “evil” and thereby ther increases to their military budgets. banish any threat to security. This thinking is According to a formal declaration, the tar- fundamental to the so-called “logic of secu- get of at least two per cent of GDP is to be rity”. But it leads neither to security nor to reached within ten years.”1 peace. Hanne-Margret Birckenbach’s peace- logic approach represents an alternative way • “The EU Commission proposes that the of doing things: It frames a problem in terms budget of the IcSP (the “Instrument con- of the task of “building peace, which means tributing to Stability and Peace”, which is facilitating relationships in which violence is essentially a civil programme) be in- unlikely because cooperation is successful.”4 creased by 100 million euro by 2020 in order to integrate military capacity-build- What follows is intended to describe this idea ing into the programme.”2 and how the problems and threats can be tackled at a practical level in a different, i.e. • On 13 November 2017, the President of the non-military, way - in the course of a process European Parliament, Mr Tajani, called for similar to the transition from nuclear power the EU’s total budget to be doubled from to alternative sources of energy. 140 to 280 billion euro, in part because of the need to finance defence cooperation3 We are talking here about a transition from and the fight against terrorism. military to civil security policy as a conse- quence of German sustainability policy be- These three statements foreshadow a strong tween now and 2040. And we are also talking militarisation of EU policy. But why? Has the about conversion of the German armed forces, current military-based security policy brought the Bundeswehr, from its current form as an lasting security? Or has it instead created ever institution which is designed to use various increasing insecurity? Have the overseas mis- forms of violence to deal with conflict. The sions of the Bundeswehr (the federal armed authors of this text wish to show by means of forces) since 2000 been successful? What a scenario how German security policy could about the negative consequences of military evolve from a military security policy into a security policy (the number of victims, trau- civil security policy. matisation of civilian populations and sol- diers, hindrance of the development of dem- ocratic societies, physical destruction, and environmental disasters)? 1 News on faz.net dated 6 September 2014, ac- cessed on 12 January 2018. 2 C News on faz.net dated 6 September 2014, ac- cessed on 12 January 2018. 3 Cf. ibid., p. 2ff. This is a reference to the so-called Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). 4 Cf. Birckenbach, 2016, p. 4.
6 1 INTRODUCTION 1.2 The starting point: the resolution of the Regional Synod5 The resolution of the synod of the Protestant scenario for phasing out military means of Church in Baden, that the church become a securing peace.” 5 just peace church, includes the following de- cision regarding implementation (point 1.6): “Now that a national law has been passed to phase out nuclear power as a source of energy, 5 For further information regarding the regional it is time to draft - perhaps in agreement with church’s resolution on peace ethics, see: other EU Member States - a medium-term www.kirche-des-friedens.de 1.3 How the “Rethinking Security” scenario was created: The scenario technique The goal of the working group was to draft by ments.”6 The working group decided to de- the autumn of 2018 a scenario setting out the velop the scenario “Rethinking Security” with ways in which a democratic society based on 2040 as the end point. respect for human rights might assert itself The positive scenario is presented in the nonviolently. The scenario was also intended greatest detail, because this is in line with the to indicate how the transition might be made task of producing a scenario phasing out mili- in the medium term from military peacekeep- tary approaches to security. Set against the ing to nonviolent ways of securing peace. positive scenario are two alternative scenar- In order to reach this goal, the working ios: One extrapolates current trends and the group chose to use what is called “the other is a negative scenario. Both of them are scenario technique”. This is “usually used to presented as a series of milestones. explore solutions to future problems, for global modelling, or to predict long-term develop- 6 6 Cf. Albers und Broux (1999), p. 57. 1.4 What is our vision in practical terms? “We must move past indecision to action. We must find ecological resources only in proportion to our new ways to speak for peace ... and for justice through- share of the world’s population, and which also out the developing world, a world that borders on our leads to global trade and economic relations doors. If we do not act, we shall surely be dragged down the long, dark, and shameful corridors of time reserved which are ecologically and socially just. Shared for those who possess power without compassion, might security requires rigorous implementation of without morality, and strength without sight. Now let us the global sustainable development goals begin.” Martin Luther King7 (SDGs), which have been agreed at the UN Shared security means, for the sake of our own level and are to be achieved by 2030. This sce- security, adopting appropriate lifestyles and nario entails the diversion of all financial re- developing an economy, which uses the Earth’s sources from military security to civilian pre- vention and management of conflicts by 2040. In this scenario, Germany works together with other countries as civil (as opposed to military) 7 Clayborne, Carson; King, Martin Luther, 2000, The actors within the EU, the OSCE, the UN, and Autobiography of Martin Luther King, Jr., New NATO. In this way Germany promotes aware- York, Abacus. p. 342
1 INTRODUCTION 7 ness throughout Europe and the world of the particular situation, UN police and peacekeeping importance of training and education in nonvi- forces are sent in. The purpose of all UN missions olent conflict resolution. This leads at the in- is to defend human rights and save lives. And all ternational level to the demilitarisation of con- UN staff are trained in unarmed civilian peace- flict resolution by UN police forces, the keeping and other instruments and methods of outlawing and abolition of war and armed civilian conflict management. Because the UN forces, and the promotion of a culture of non- and the continental organisations have the nec- violence in responding to conflict. essary structures and financial resources to be able to guarantee that the population of every The basic global vision underlying this scenario nation state is protected, there is no longer any is as follows: need for any nation to keep a standing army. War A (reformed) UN is the central institution which is outlawed not just in theory but in practice. regulates the peaceful coexistence of peoples Because of the great importance of global and nation states. It is an umbrella organisation trade, the institutions and regulatory instru- for continental organisations (OSCE, OAS, AU, ments of the WTO are subordinated to a new ASEAN, etc.), each of which has its own security organisation governing the global economy ac- council and police force. Everywhere in the world cording to universal social and ecological stand- conflicts are dealt with through the use of nonvi- ards. The vision described here was created by olent mechanisms (prevention, early warning, further developing the SDGs, the 17 global goals rapid response), which can be found in every cul- for sustainable development which are to be ture on Earth. These mechanisms promote mu- achieved by 2030. Goal 16 “Peace and Justice” tual respect, compromise, and fair outcomes, states the framework very clearly: which together remove the causes of the escala- tion of violence in conflict situations. If a conti- “Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable nental security council decides that these mech- development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all lev- anisms are not functioning effectively in a els.” 1.5 Who should bring about the transformation? Because politics is always an interplay of so- The Protestant Church in Baden’s initiative cial forces, in order for this scenario to be- could stimulate the development of a broad come reality there will have to be a broad so- alliance of churches and civil society organi- cial movement, like there was behind the sations (including other faith organisations) phasing out of nuclear power and the energy throughout Germany from 2018 onwards. transition. The churches could play a leading Then church networks in particular through- role, especially in implementing the sustaina- out Europe could campaign for widespread ble development goals (SDGs), just as they did acceptance of a sustainable civil security pol- in the successful Jubilee Debt Campaign be- icy by 2040. tween 1996 and 2000. The SDGs can be taken up by the ecumenical movement and pro- moted throughout civil society. Broad general discussion of the sustainability goals could contribute a great deal towards their imple- mentation.
8 1 INTRODUCTION 1.6 Focus on the role of Germany The positive scenario focuses on Germany, power and opportunities therefore of the because the authors want to highlight the po- people in Germany, together with everyone litical power and the opportunities which else, regardless of origin or nationality, who their country has in relation to the demilitari- wants to set out on the same path. sation of European security policy, and the 1.7 Factual basis and note regarding copyright In the positive scenario the case studies and The positive scenario is a compilation and de- data relating to the years up to and including velopment of a large number of contributions 2017 are based on fact. Most of the data is to the debate made by other authors. These taken from the Fourth Report of the Federal are listed in the bibliography. Government on the Implementation of the Ac- tion Plan “Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution, and Post-Conflict Peace-Building” or from the guidelines “Preventing Crises, Re- 8 Cf. Die Bundesregierung, 2017 and solving Conflict, Building Peace”. 8 Die Bundesregierung, 2014. 1.8 Full-length version and distribution of the scenario This is a complex scenario, which should be Ralf Becker recounted in detail. The authors have there- project coordinator fore created a full-length version which draws „Sicherheit neu denken“ on a large number of concrete examples, both Email: ralf.becker@ekiba.de historical and current, of nonviolent action at the local, national, and international levels. Stefan Maass The authors hope that the scenario “Rethink- programme manager ing Security: From military to civil security” „Kirche des gerechten Friedens werden“ will set the discourse about security and in der Ev. Landeskirche in Baden peace off in a new direction. Your support is Email: stefan.maass@ekiba.de needed for this scenario to be made available Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden to a broad public throughout the churches Postfach 2269, 7610 Karlsruhe and civil society and for it to become part of a public debate within the churches and civil For further information regarding the regional society. We are willing to present the sce- church’s peace ethics programme, see our nario at conferences and events. website at: www.kirche-des-friedens.de The full-length version of the scenario, fur- Current news about the scenario can also be ther copies of this short version, and an infor- found at www.ekiba.de/friedensszenario mation sheet about the scenario are available from:
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 9 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 2.1 FROM 2018 TO 2040 - MILESTONES ALONG THE WAY 2017: Minister of Defence von der Leyen scientious Objection and Peace), the BSV seeks support for civil security policy (Federation for Social Defence), the Fellowship Minister of Defence von der Leyen seeks support of Reconciliation, the Werkstatt für gewalt- for a strengthening of the civilian pillars of freie Aktion (Nonviolent Action Workshop). European security and defence policy.9 Diplo- In the Federal Foreign Office, the number of macy and also support for economic develop- staff in Section S - Humanitarian Assistance, ment in the countries in the EU’s neighbour- Crisis Prevention, Stabilisation, and Post-Con- hood should be strengthened in future. flict Rehabilitation, created in 2015, is in- 2018: The Protestant Church in Baden publi creased from 500 to 1,000. cises the scenario as a contribution to public A publicity campaign run by churches and civil debate society organisations concerned with human The synod of the Protestant Church in Baden rights leads to restrictions on the number of entrusts the church leadership with the task films and film trailers with violent content on of publicising - in conjunction with other civil public service television. society and church organisations - the sce- 2019: EKD commissions study to devise a nario “Rethinking Security: From military to sustainable civil security policy for Ger civil security” as a contribution to public de- many bate in Germany and Europe in 2018 and 2019. The scenario will also be fed into the public The scenario is then presented at more than debate at the European level through the Eu- 500 events in cooperation with other regional ropean network Church and Peace, the Inter- Protestant churches and many other organisa- national Fellowship of Reconciliation, the tions, including the Konsortium Ziviler Community of Protestant Churches in Europe Friedensdienst (Civil Peace Service Group), AGDF (Action Committee Service for Peace), (CPCE), the WCC in Geneva, and the Commis- the Verein für Friedensarbeit im Raum der sion of the Bishops’ Conferences in the Euro- EKD (the Association for Peace Work within pean Union (COMECE). the Evangelical Church in Germany), Brot für The head of the German Armed Forces Asso- die Welt (Bread for the World), Misereor, Mis- ciation, Mr Wuestner complains publicly that sio, the Plattform Zivile Konfliktbearbeitung the Bundestag is not setting clear aims for the (German Platform for Peaceful Conflict Man- armed forces’ overseas missions and is thereby agement), the Netzwerk Friedenskooperative regularly putting soldiers in an intolerable po- (Network of the German Peace Movement), sition. Kooperation für den Frieden (Alliance for The Evangelical Church in Germany (EKD) crit- Peace), the Berghof Foundation, Pax Christi, icises the fact that the armed forces’ over- the EAK (Protestant Working Group for Con- seas missions increasingly rarely fulfil the cri- teria, laid down in 2007, for ethically 9 Verbal statement by Defence Minister von der acceptable use of military force as a last re- Leyen during the TV programme “Anne Will” sort. The EKD, in cooperation with a nascent shown on ARD on 22 January 2017. campaign for a civil security policy, calls on
10 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” the federal government to fund a comprehen- gen Area. Germany and the Benelux countries sive inquiry into the potential effectiveness react to this by building up their police forces and limitations of a sustainable civil security and expanding social integration programmes. policy. 2021: The state no longer guarantees arms The widespread problem of traumatisation of exports soldiers through participation in overseas mis- The Bundestag passes a definitive ban on nu- sions comes increasingly to the attention of clear weapons on German soil. Germany lob- the public. bies with growing success at both European The sustainable civil security scenario be- and international levels for a universal and comes known to a broad spectrum of the pub- complete nuclear weapons ban. lic as a result of newspaper advertisements, a “Aktion Aufschrei - Stoppt den Waffenhan- large poster campaign, and days of action del!” (“Operation Outcry: Stop the Arms funded by various churches and civil society Trade”) succeeds in getting a resolution organisations throughout Germany. Various passed by the Bundestag to end state guaran- news programmes report on the scenario and tees for arms exports. Their demand for an representatives of the scenario are invited to end to all arms exports has been taken up by take part in television talk shows. the national campaign for a civil security pol- In Austria, Sweden, and the Netherlands there icy. As a result of a successful action cam- is a positive response to the ideas of the sce- paign and extremely creative public relations nario not only from civil society and the work the campaign gains more than 1,000 churches, but also from the national govern- member organisations. In the run-up to the ments. general election in 2021 the campaign con- ducts a large number of public debates 2020: A civil society campaign for a civil throughout Germany and succeeds in making security policy is founded the scenario “Rethinking Security” known to A national campaign for a civil security policy the parliamentary candidates of all the politi- is founded as an independent association by cal parties. 30 member organisations whose goal is the passing of a corresponding resolution by the 2022: Government commissions inquiry Bundestag in 2025. The member organisations into sustainable civil security commit initially to participating in the cam- The civil society and church organisations in- paign until 2025. volved in the campaign intensify their dia- logue with members of the Bundestag and Fifteen of the campaign’s 30 member organi- government ministers by organising numerous sations employ staff to support the campaign. events throughout Germany at church study The campaign council, which is made up of centres and with the think-tank foundations representatives of the Protestant Church in associated with each of the political parties. Baden and other church and civil society or- ganisations, draws up the campaign’s policy The dialogue is also promoted through a na- and programme of action. The campaign fo- tionwide campaign in which people send post- cuses initially on calling on the federal gov- cards to members of the Bundestag. And im- ernment to work at both the European level aginative events are held in every constituency. and the international level for a universal and The EKD works in cooperation with the cam- complete nuclear weapons ban. paign and succeeds in persuading the federal Several major terrorist attacks shake Ger- government to commission a comprehensive many, France, and the Benelux countries. inquiry into the potential effectiveness and There are violent demonstrations by citizens limitations of a sustainable civil security policy. who call for their country to leave the Schen-
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 11 Politicians belonging to conservative parties 2024: Government commission recom and representatives of the armaments indus- mends implementation of the campaign’s try set up the “Organisation for Military Secu- scenario rity”, which places full-page advertisements The government-appointed commission of in all the major daily newspapers and adver- inquiry into the potential effectiveness and tises on television for the continued mainte- limitations of a sustainable civil security pol- nance of a military security policy. icy, reports in its findings that civilian peace- 2023: Papal encyclical “Fructus justiciae keeping is economically and politically effi- pax” cient in terms of the input of resources and the achievement of the desired goals. The The Pope, in an encyclical entitled “Fructus commission recommends that a series of steps justiciae pax” (The fruit of justice will be be taken to implement the scenario advo- peace, Isaiah 32:17), calls on every country in cated by the campaign. the world, and industrialised countries in par- ticular, to transfer funding from military to The campaign for civil security policy now has non-military security. As a consequence, more 5,000 member organisations which organise a and more congregations and churches in Ger- series of actions at military bases throughout many and throughout Europe join in the cam- the country over several months. This wins paign, which has more than 3,000 member or- sympathetic media coverage at the national ganisations by the end of the year. level. In opinion polls as many as 60 % say that they are in favour of a sustainable civil secu- In order to comply with a Directive issued by rity policy. the Federal Constitutional Court, the federal government passes a regulation to protect 2025: The Bundestag resolves that Ger freedom of conscience as enshrined in Article many should make the transition to a civil 4 (1) of the German Constitution. The regula- security policy tion makes it illegal to force any tax-payer to The sustainable civil security scenario for pay towards armaments or armed forces Germany gains widespread support at the against their conscience. More and more peo- ecumenical Kirchentag (church gathering) in ple assert their right to conscientious objec- Bonn, and the topic dominates the national tion to paying taxes for military purposes, to news. The leaders of almost all political par- the extent that some political parties begin to ties are open to the idea, and they promise include in their manifestos proposals for wind- that it will be implemented step-by-step after ing down the armed forces. the forthcoming general election. During a Both the Protestant and the Roman Catholic historic session, the newly-elected German churches in Germany work within their Euro- Bundestag resolves, with a large majority in pean networks to push for acceptance in the favour, that Germany shall make the transition other EU Member States of the intended de- from a military security policy to a sustainable militarisation of European security policy in civil security policy based on five pillars: conjunction with Germany’s policy to pro- 1. Just foreign relations (development of for- mote sustainability. eign relations which are ecologically, so- In opinion polls, as many as 40% say that they cially, and economically just); are in favour of Germany making the transi- 2. Sustainable development in the EU’s tion to civil security. Neighbourhood countries. (promotion of economic development and security in the EU’s eastern and southern neighbour- hood);
12 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 3. Participation in the international security curity Forum. The Forum launches various cam- architecture (German membership of the paigns to promote the concept of common civil EU, the OSCE, NATO, and the UN); security, as envisaged by the scenario, amongst the churches and civil society in the Member 4. Resilient democracy; and States of the EU and the EAEU. 5. Conversion of the federal armed forces The Bundestag initiates a re-launch of the or- and the armaments industry. ganisation “desertec” by the EU together with The Bundestag’s resolution also stipulates all the countries (government and civil society) that Germany should push for the creation by bordering the Mediterranean. The aim of the 2030, of a common economic area encom- organisation is to realise the eco-social vision of passing the EU and Russia/the EAEU (Eurasian the UN’s SDGs. Economic Union). This should be the basis for Under the umbrella of the OSCE (Organisation a security partnership between the EU and for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and at Russia to be agreed in 2030. The Bundestag’s the behest of Germany, the EU and the Eurasian resolution also includes support for education Economic Union (EAEU), which encompasses and training in the field of civilian conflict Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyr- management and resilient democracy. This is gyzstan, begin negotiations with the aim of cre- to be provided by the member organisations ating a common economic area from Lisbon to of a newly created civil society organisation: Vladivostok. This common economic area is in- the Nonviolence Association. tended to form the basis of a security partner- The Bundestag Subcommittee for Civilian Cri- ship between the EU and Russia, which is to be sis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and created at the same time. Joined-up Action is reconstituted as the “Re- silient Democracy” committee. 2027: ITHW receives first delivery of equipment from the Bundeswehr 2026: Negotiations take place between the In the course of conversion of the Bundeswehr EU and Russia on the creation of an eco (German armed forces), the International nomic area Agency for Technical Relief (ITHW) receives Having reached the goal of a resolution by the the first delivery of equipment which can be Bundestag to implement the scenario, the cam- used for civilian purposes, thereby increasing paign for a civil security policy, founded in 2020 its capacity for future medical and technical for a limited period only, winds itself up. A suc- missions worldwide. cessor organisation is set up: The national civil Arms factories develop and manufacture the society organisation, the Nonviolence Associa- first items of equipment for use by the ITHW tion, starts off with 2,500 member organisa- and thus begin converting their production to tions and 7,500 individual members. This asso- the manufacture of civilian products. ciation works together with the churches and government bodies to further the following NATO criticises the 2025 resolution of the aims: to develop education and training through- Bundestag to change over to an exclusively out the country; to establish another temporary civil security policy. The German cabinet re- campaign to build the Fourth Pillar, “Resilient sists the pressure from other NATO Member Democracy”; and to provide support, including States and points out that they have the clear constructive criticism, for the implementation backing of public opinion for the intended of the Bundestag resolution within Germany. policy transformation. The USA responds by temporarily suspending cooperation of their At the same time, civil society and church or- intelligence agencies with the German au- ganisations from within the EU and the EAEU thorities. come together under the leadership of the World Council of Churches to form the Civil Se-
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 13 2028: Negotiations for a security partner 2032: OSCE Centre for Civilian Crisis Pre ship with Russia begin vention and Intervention opens in Stock On the basis of promising negotiations for the holm and UN Centre for Social Resistance creation of a common economic area encom- opens in Bonn. passing the EU and Russia/the EAEU, negotia- The Economic and Security Partnership be- tions begin on the formation of a security tween the EU and Russia/the EAEU facilitates partnership with Russia under the auspices of a continuous process of disarmament through- the OSCE. out Europe. This is accompanied by the crea- The Munich Security Conference and the Fed- tion of an OSCE police force to protect the eral Academy for Security Policy orient their economic and security interests of the states programmes in line with the Bundestag’s 2025 which are part of the partnership. 70% of resolution, i.e. in accordance with a purely Germans have confidence in the Economic civil security policy. The Munich Security Con- and Security Partnership with Russia/the ference Change Project and the national cam- EAEU. paign for a civil security policy have both As a result of German involvement, the OSCE done a lot to bring about this transformation. expands its civilian crisis prevention and in- 2029: Nonviolent conflict management and tervention activities and opens a new centre resilient democracy are a compulsory part in Stockholm. of the curriculum in all schools At the same time the UN Secretary General In accordance with the 2025 Bundestag reso- inaugurates the UN Centre for Social Resist- lution, which was also agreed with the states ance in Bonn as a training centre for building of the federal republic (Bundesländer), the resilient democracy. German states make nonviolent conflict man- 2035: Bundestag resolution on complete agement and resilient democracy part of the conversion of the Bundeswehr by 2040 compulsory curriculum of all schools. Throughout the federal republic, in consulta- As a result of intensive cooperation by the tion with the state ministries of education, German government with the Civil Security civil society organisations belonging to the Forum and the Nonviolence Association, the Nonviolence Association are given responsibil- ground is laid for a Bundestag resolution in ity for teaching these subjects. This serves to 2035 which provides for the complete con- demonstrate how important a functioning version of the German Bundeswehr into a civil society is to resilient democracy. purely civilian section of the (International) Agency for Technical Relief. Henceforth the 2030: Economic and security treaty with OSCE plays the key role in ensuring peace Russia/EAEU and security in Europe. The Economic and Security Partnership be- 2037: NATO accepts the purely civilian na tween the EU and Russia/the EAEU is founded ture of Germany’s contribution to peace under the auspices of the OSCE. With the cre- keeping ation of a common economic area from Lisbon to Vladivostok, Europe overcomes the eco- At a NATO summit, Germany’s allies agree to nomic division which reached its height dur- allow Germany to make a purely civilian con- ing the Ukraine crisis in 2014. In the partner- tribution to peacekeeping within the NATO al- ship agreement the economic and security liance in future. interests of Russia and all the other Member The last German armaments factories are States of the EU and the EAEU are recognised converted to the production of (non-military) in their entirety and are balanced out. technical equipment for the International The Bundeswehr stops holding information Agency for Technical Relief. events in schools.
14 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 2040: Complete conversion of the Bundes Prevention. The Bundeswehr hands over its wehr last facilities and equipment to the Interna- tional Agency for Technical Relief. Germany What has until now been the Ministry of De- has completed the conversion of its security fence becomes the Ministry for Civilian Crisis policy to sustainable civil security. 2.2 The PILLARS of German sustainable civil security policy from the year 2025 From the year 2025, in accordance with the • rigorously implement the climate goals to trail-blazing resolutions of the German Bun- which they committed themselves in the destag in 2025 and 2035, Germany’s sustaina- 2015 Paris climate agreement, ble civil security policy rests on the following pillars: • in cooperation with their European part- ners, invest in measures to end hunger, 1. Development of foreign relations which poverty, and disease throughout the are ecologically, socially, and economi- world. cally just; Germany contributes 4 billion euro annually 2. Promotion of economic development and to the UN World Food Programme. security in the EU’s eastern and southern The results of this policy are as follows: neighbourhood countries; 3. Participation in the international security • The EU ends subsidies for agricultural ex- ports; architecture: German membership of the EU, the OSCE, NATO, and the UN; • The “global South” is no longer structur- ally disadvantaged because of Western 4. Resilient democracy; domination of the global trade and finan- 5. Conversion of the Bundeswehr and the ar- cial system;. maments industry. • In the raw materials sector, there are clear and transparent global regulations 2.2.I Just foreign relations and effective institutions which guarantee 2040 - Overview that there is no violent conflict and that environmental and social standards are Germany, Austria, Sweden, and the Nether- upheld; lands • Germany contributes 6 billion euro annu- • conduct foreign relations which are eco- ally to the UN Sustainable Development logically, socially, and economically just, Goals Fund. The Federal Ministry for Eco- and maintain a fair balance of trade, nomic Cooperation and Development in- • steadily increase the proportion of traded vests an additional 6 million euro annually goods which are certified as fair trade, in global climate protection. • practise a lifestyle which places demands on ecological resources which are com- mensurate with their share of the world’s population,
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 15 The Global extractive Resources Initiative • From 2030 the Economic and Security Partnership between the EU and the Rus- The Global extractive Resources Initiative sian-led EAEU regulates the economic in- (GeRI), which was launched at the begin- terests of all the partner states by means ning of 2012, promotes the creation of clear of a treaty and through the creation of a and transparent legal regulations and the common economic area. establishment of effective institutions in the mining sector. • Germany is the biggest supporter of the African Peace and Security Architecture During 2007/2008, following the recom- (APSA) and contributes more than 60% of mendations of the G8 summit in Heiligen- the EU’s support for the African Union’s damm in 2007, the Federal Institute for Ge- (AU’s) budget for this. osciences and Natural Resources, working together with partner institutions on be- • Germany contributes 12 billion euro annu- ally to the UN Development Plan for the half of the federal government, developed EU and the member states of the African a raw materials certification system (Certi- Union and the Arab League. The focus is fied Trading Chains). This system was the on fair trade, good governance, sustaina- first to specifically address the challenges ble private and public investment, bot- of artisanal and small-scale mining, while tom-up economic development, entrepre- also monitoring environmental and social neurial spirit, and jobs and employment. standards, including the degree to which minerals are “conflict-free”. • The African and Middle Eastern countries supply 30% of the EU’s consumption of en- After a successful pilot scheme covering ergy from renewable sources. For this pur- five mines in Rwanda, German support for pose Germany invests a further 5 million certification measures was extended ini- euro in the energy infrastructure of coun- tially to the Great Lakes region and subse- tries bordering the Mediterranean. quently to the whole of the African conti- nent and then to the whole world. The UN Development Plan for Africa and The importance of the issue of raw materi- the Middle East10 als and crisis prevention and German ac- The UN Development Plan stands on three pil- tion to tackle it were highlighted interna- lars: tionally by the publication in 2014 of the 1. Economy, trade, and employment EU’s draft regulation on responsible trade in tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold. 2. Peace and security, and The global orientation of the EU regulation, 3. Democracy and the rule of law. which was finally adopted in 2020, led to Cooperation is governed by the following growth in the importance of due diligence guidelines: measures and certification in the African Great Lakes Region and beyond. • an effective ban on harmful exports to Af- rica; a transition from free trade to fair trade; support for the development of in- 2.2.II Sustainable development in the EU’s frastructure; targeted development of Neighbourhood countries value-adding processes at source; 2040 – Overview • The countries of Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe form a stable “peace belt” around the EU. 10 This is an extrapolation of ideas drawn from BMZ, 2017.
16 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” • the upholding of international environ- than 60% of the total EU support for this sec- mental and social standards; tion of the AU budget. • the closure of international tax havens; Support for regional civilian peacekeep pressure on international financial markets ing training centres in Africa and banks to end illegal transfers of funds out of Africa; One of the main priorities of these measures is to support regional civilian peacekeeping • restrictions on arms exports to Africa, es- training centres in Africa. The support pecially on the export of small and light focusses on the training of African police weapons; officers for UN and AU peace missions. • pressure on governments which finance The federal government has therefore been religious extremism in Africa and thereby funding training courses at the Kofi Annan destabilise entire regions, to stop doing so. International Peacekeeping Training Centre The Development Plan is driven by a new eco- (KAIPTC) in Accra, Ghana, since 2008. More nomic policy which focusses on economic di- than 100,000 West African police officers versification, the development of value have been trained since 2012. chains, targeted promotion of agriculture and Alongside its support for African regional small and medium-sized enterprises, and civilian peacekeeping training centres, Ger- greater recognition of the value of crafts and many is also funding UNITAR (United Nations trades and thereby the creation of a new mid- Institute for Training and Research). UNITAR dle class. Europe supports the development supports the training of personnel for UN of Africa and the Middle East by opening up missions at African civilian peacekeeping access to its internal market and by removing training centres and is building up an Afri- existing trade barriers. can regional network of 25 civilian peace- Strengthening the peace and security ar keeping training centres. chitecture in Africa and the Middle East In 2013/2014 the BMZ (Federal Ministry for Integration of the economic areas of Economic Cooperation and Development) Russia/ the EAEU and the EU published a policy document entitled “Devel- In 2026, prompted by Germany, Austria, Swe- opment for Peace and Security: Development den, and the Netherlands, the EU and the Policy in the Context of Conflict, Fragility and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU, encompass- Violence”. This document emphasises the im- ing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and portance of institutional and legally estab- Kyrgyzstan), which was founded in 2014, lished mechanisms for political participation begin negotiations with the aim of creating a and for negotiated management of conflicting common economic area from Lisbon to Vlad- interests as preconditions for peaceful and in- ivostok. From 2030, as a result of this eco- clusive development in the Neighbourhood of nomic partnership, Europe overcomes the the EU. economic division which reached its height Key partners in the prevention and de-escala- during the 2014 Ukraine crisis, because the tion of conflict in Africa are the African Union economic interests of Russia and all the other (AU) and other regional organisations which Member States of the EU and the EAEU are together form the African Peace and Security recognised in their entirety and are balanced Architecture (APSA). Germany is the biggest out. supporter of the APSA, especially where the funding of current peace missions is con- cerned. Indeed Germany contributes more
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 17 2.2.III Participation in the international • The UN Security Council is now composed security architecture (EU, OSCE, of representatives of the continental se- NATO, UN) curity councils. 2040 - Overview Paradigm shift from “national security” to “common security”12 • The OSCE is the key organisation for early warning, crisis prevention, conflict resolu- Common security is a concept based on the tion, and post-conflict rehabilitation understanding that a peaceful European order throughout Europe. As a subsidiary organ- depends on a form of European security which isation of the UN, the OSCE tackles all respects the security interests of all the par- conflicts within Europe using only civilian ties involved. According to this concept, one’s methods of policing, etc. own security always depends on the security of one’s neighbour or opponent. It does not • From the standpoint of shared or common work for each of us to seek our own security security, security in Europe has to take by defending ourselves against our neigh- into account the security interests of all bours. We must all seek our security together. the players. One’s own security is always Common security rests on the recognition of dependent on the security of one’s neigh- economic and political interdependence and bour or opponent. on shared and indivisible responsibility for • Germany invests 6 billion euro annually in peace. Socio-political differences need to be the creation of a pan-European UN police recognised and accepted. The overriding aim force under the auspices of the OSCE. This is coexistence: There may not be a consensus police force is always on stand-by and in terms of shared values, but everyone’s in- ready to intervene, so it can go into action terests can be balanced out. just as rapidly and effectively as army The federal government’s 2016 White Paper units were expected to in the past. on security policy adopted the national secu- • NATO accepts the purely civilian contribu- rity paradigm and portrayed our own inter- tions made by two of its members, Ger- ests as naturally justified. The White Paper many and the Netherlands. states that these interests can be pursued • The training of the population in resilient using any suitable means, including military, democracy becomes established as a pil- anywhere in the world. But political oppo- lar of common security policy in the EU, nents are not granted the same right to pur- the OSCE, and NATO.11 sue their own interests using these same means. The White Paper does not mention • Germany contributes more than 5,000 po- the risk to world peace and international se- lice and 50,000 civilian experts to interna- curity which arises when every nation claims tional UN peacekeeping missions and is this right for themselves. the largest contributor to the UN Peace- building Fund. Before and after the German Bundestag reso- lutions on sustainable civil security policy are • Germany pushes for UN peacekeeping mis- passed in 2025 and 2035, Germany builds up sions to be organised as police operations its contributions to non-military peacebuild- and hosts the annual UN police confer- ing under the auspices of the UN, the EU, and ence. the OSCE in accordance with its action plan “Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolu- tion, and Post-Conflict Peace-Building”. This 11 Drawn from FEST (Ed.), 2017. 12 Cf. FEST (Ed.), 2017, p. 8.
18 2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” action plan was published in 2004 and most rope. It is intended that - as a subsidiary or- recently revised in 2017, when it was re-pub- ganisation of the UN, as described in Chapter lished as guidelines for “Preventing Crises, VIII of the UN Charter - the OSCE should in fu- Resolving Conflicts, Building Peace”. ture tackle all conflicts within Europe by using policing and other civilian measures only. EU - Common Security and Defence Policy With the creation of an international OSCE (CSDP) police force, all the remaining national armies According to Article 42 (1) of the EU treaty, are to be drastically reduced in strength. This the Common Security and Defence Policy is development is made possible by the exist- an integral part of the Common Foreign and ence of the Economic and Security Partner- Security Policy. “It shall provide the Union ship between the EU and the Russian-led with an operational capacity drawing on civil- EAEU. From 2030 onwards, this Partnership ian and military assets. The Union may use regulates the economic interests of all the them on missions outside the Union for partner states by means of a treaty and through peace-keeping, conflict prevention and the creation of a common economic area. strengthening international security in ac- cordance with the principles of the United NATO - Germany as a purely civil actor Nations Charter.” There has been a strong peace movement in Germany ever since the Second World War. From 2030 onwards, Germany, Austria, Swe- The peaceful revolution which brought down den, and the Netherlands participate only in the Berlin Wall in 1989 already gave rise to the civilian missions within the framework of hopes that it might become possible in future the CSDP. From the beginning of the 2020s, to resolve conflicts using nonviolent means. civilian missions already play an increasing role compared with the military components Since 1989, the German government has re- of the CSDP. But it is not until the Bundestag’s peatedly stressed that civilian means of con- 2025 resolution and the subsequent increase flict management take precedence, while the in funding for the civilian components of the use of military force has always been regarded CSDP that they develop into an important pil- as a last resort. And yet in the years up until lar of the EU’s security and defence policy.13 2016 Germany spent ten times as much (36 billion euro annually) on military as opposed OSCE - the key to peace and security in to civilian means of preventing and resolving Europe conflict.14 From the point of view of Germany, the OSCE By 2024 Germany even increases its annual (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in military defence spending to more than 60 Europe) is the key organisation for early warn- billion euro. ing, crisis prevention, conflict resolution, and post-conflict peacebuilding throughout Eu- By the time the Bundestag passes its resolu- rope. tion in 2025, it is generally recognised that spending on military peacekeeping, as op- Following the Bundestag’s resolution in 2025, posed to purely civilian peacemaking, cannot it is Germany’s stated aim to work together no longer be justified economically or so- with all the states of Europe to build up the cially. OSCE into the sole security institution in Eu- Bearing in mind, amongst other things, our vi- olent history up until 1945, and in an attempt 13 These structures are part of the federal govern- to inspire other countries to disarm, Germany ment’s report on the implementation, between 2010 and 2014, of the action plan “Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution, and Post-Conflict 14 Cf. Bund für Soziale Verteidigung, January 2017, Peace-Building”. See: Die Bundesregierung, 2014. p. 1.
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY” 19 decides in 2025 to disarm militarily by 2040 strongly for a strengthening - instead of the and to make its contribution to common secu- continued weakening - of the UN and to in- rity as a member of NATO through the expan- crease its diplomatic and humanitarian in- sion of the civilian capacities of the OSCE. volvement. This means bolstering and in- Prior to 2024, Directorate General S of the creasing the use of existing UN instruments Federal Foreign Office, “Crisis Prevention, for peaceful conflict prevention and resolu- Stabilisation, and Post-Conflict Peace-Build- tion whilst also reforming them and develop- ing”, which was created in 2015, already un- ing them further. During the years running up dergoes major expansion. to 2030, it is possible to further develop the “just policing” model as a project which Germany’s increasing prioritisation of civil se- demonstrates the way forward. This model is curity encounters strong resistance from outlined in the Catholic-Mennonite dialogue in NATO partner countries initially. But several the USA and is recommended as a preventive factors lead to a growing willingness to accept measure, which the international community Germany’s concentration on policing and civil can use in response to threats to world peace, security measures only: the growing success by a study published by the FEST of German diplomacy; the establishment of (Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studi- the Economic and Security Partnership be- engemeinschaft) in 2017.15 tween the EU and the EAEU; and the contri- bution made by German civilian experts to From 2025 Germany pushes for emerging na- crisis prevention and de-escalation, which can tions and the global South to have better op- no longer be overlooked. portunities to participate in international bodies commensurate with their growing po- So from 2040 onwards Germany contributes tential. Germany thereby promotes more to common security in Europe and the world equal participation in the development of the exclusively through civilian staff and resources international order. At the same time, Ger- under the umbrella of the OSCE. Although this many drives the growth and development of contribution initially meets with sceptical international criminal law under the aegis of sneers and opposition, it nevertheless gains the UN. growing recognition within NATO. The deploy- ment of civilian peace experts and the train- Strong participation in UN peacekeeping ing of local people in resilient democracy be- missions come established pillars of the OSCE. Even Although Germany contributed only 19 police NATO, in its policy and practice, recognises officers and 63 civilian experts to interna- these measures as a contribution of the EU’s tional UN peacekeeping missions in 2014,16 Common Security and Defence Policy. this contribution increases to 1,000 police of- The UN - the global security architecture ficers and 2,000 civilian experts in 2030. In 2017 the federal government committed itself Since 11 September 2001 the world has be- to long-term, strong and highly qualified sup- come more and more accustomed to individ- port for international missions in its guide- ual groups of states claiming for themselves lines “Preventing Crises, Overcoming Conflict, the right to wage war against other states, Promoting Peace” (Chapter 3.2.2). Following parastate entities, or terrorist organisations - the Bundestag’s 2025 resolution, Germany in- even without an explicit mandate in accord- creases its involvement in international UN ance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter. peacekeeping missions to more than 5,000 In conjunction with the reduction and finally police officers and 50,000 civilian experts. the termination of Germany’s oft disputed participation in international military inter- vention, the German Bundestag instructs the 15 Cf. Schabach, 2007 and Werkner et al, 2017. federal government in 2025 and 2035 to push 16 Cf. Bundesregierung, 2014, p. 46
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