RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE?
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ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX: WHERE IN THE WORLD COULD YOUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO THRIVE? U nderstanding how to flex and adapt your branch portfolio is a critical success factor for modern retailers. Relying on customer base, brand strength, and market confidence alone will not guarantee success. Retailers need to be empowered with data and insight that not only takes these elements into consideration but also reviews the varying factors that impact portfolio success. This will not only ensure risks are successfully mitigated and managed, but will also lead to higher returns from retail investment. The Arcadis Retail Operations Index offers insight into which locations are most and least difficult to execute, scale and flex large retail programs based on an in-depth analysis of the global retail market over 50 countries. Looking at market demands, economic climate, quality of infrastructure, and ease of establishment and operation, we have identified both the key challenges and the opportunities faced by the world’s largest retailers when opting to expand or reshape their store portfolios.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 2 HEADLINES AT A GLANCE T he majority of the Western European countries are concentrated in the top half of the index, indicating that the well-established retail markets continue to present sound opportunities for optimizing store performance. T he UAE ranks highly overall with both D espite being the largest consumer market in the world, China’s significant barriers to entry, a strong quality of including strict regulations, economic H ong Kong tops the ranking as the easiest market for retailers to enter. In spite of this, the latest market insight suggests infrastructure and a robust economic environment. slowdown and a fragmented market structure, have led to a lower rating on our attractiveness scale. that increasing operating overheads such as high property costs and softening sales will likely have an impact on local performance in 2015. B razil has a growing market demand due M to a rapidly growing middle arket demand class and increased foreign in the US interest. However, its low strengthens position in the index is with interesting reflective of the challenges polarisation in certain of an over-regulated labor retail categories and market, low degree of trade specific locations. transparency, high inflation and currency depreciation.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 3 CONTENTS 4 THE REVOLUTION OF THE RETAIL STORE 6 12 21 24 THE OUR MIDDLE RESEARCH ASIA THE USA EAST 17 EUROPE 22 LATIN AMERICA 25 WHAT CAN RETAILERS DO TO ENSURE OPTIMUM RESULTS FROM THEIR STORE 28 PORTFOLIOS ACROSS THE GLOBE? CONTACT US
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 4 THE REVOLUTION OF THE RETAIL STORE Evolution is part of the fabric of life within the retail world. However, the retail store environment has seen little change over the years – that is, until the birth of the digital world and, more importantly, the explosion of mobile technology and social media that has pushed evolution into revolution. The net result is that retailers have had to cope with and respond to both the technology enabling change and to the consumers who are dictating it. The challenge is then compounded by cultural and developmental differences across the world making it impossible to adopt a single solution. The key to keeping pace with this revolution is adaptability, flexibility and an absolute focus on really knowing your consumer. THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL Online retail revenues are expected to double over the next four need for lower cost, flexible, reusable store formats that can be years, led by China and the US. Asia has overtaken the USA in relocated to suit a rapidly changing environment. This is already online sales for the first time and Europe and emerging markets being played out through the explosion of the ‘Pop-Up’ store are growing exponentially. Retail property portfolios are expected environment. to shrink by 30% over the next 10 years as retailers are under Retailers with a heavy focus on services, such as retail banks and more pressure to maintain performance in their bricks-and-mortar mobile phone operators, will be equally challenged as their own assets. So how will this affect portfolios in the future? services continue to trend towards increasing online transactions. This depends heavily on the type of retailer you are and the multi- The number of bricks-and-mortar touch points for these types of channel strategy adopted. But we can certainly expect a heavier retailers are likely to reduce and be focused on premium locations emphasis on flagships for brand building and showcasing products, and premium customer experiences. They will offer higher levels supported by a variety of flexible store formats driving core sales of service to their VIP customers to generate the returns required through localized access for the consumer. There will be a greater from such premium locations.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 5 OMNI-CHANNEL IS CRITICAL There is a race on to find the optimal omni-channel solution but it would fair to say that there is no single model for success. Determining exactly how to provide customers with the most efficient seamless balance between in-store, online and mobile shopping experiences remains one of the biggest challenges for most retailers. Perhaps one of the best pioneering examples of successful omni-channel retailing could be found with Apple where the consumer experience is absolutely consistent. Even their physical store networks have a blend of high impact city flagships surrounded by an ecosystem of smaller distributor stores and kiosks providing tremendous flexibility to shape their retail real estate portfolio quickly and efficiently. CONVENIENCE IS KING In this rapidly changing environment, the consumer is demanding convenience throughout the experience. Now, more than ever before, convenience is truly a critical success factor for retailers. Retail stores and branches will need to be multi-functional and accessible as the brand experience touch-point for consumers in the real world. The seeds of the revolution were planted many years ago, perhaps as long as three decades ago when catalogue and mail order companies pioneered what has become ‘Click-and-Collect’. In a pre-digital age, this provided catalogue customers with the ability to place orders and then collect in store at their convenience. Most major retailers are adapting their existing store formats to incorporate a form of ‘Click-and-Collect’ allowing their online shoppers to not only collect goods at a convenient time and location, but also to handle returns, resolve customer service issues and make cash payments. Although “Click-and-Collect” is less common in Asia where consumers are not as likely to drive to stores, it is becoming an increasingly popular retail concept in the Americas and Europe where the car still dominates. Many have increased sales by embracing an adapted “Click- and-Collect” concept. The UK department store John Lewis, for example, has leveraged its sister company, supermarket Waitrose, adding almost 320 collection points across the region. Reducing the necessity for customers to make longer journeys into major towns has made the experience more convenient and attractive to consumers. Changes such as this can result in an increase of up to 20% in online sales. Online retailers are also seeing a growing need to adapt. When Amazon opened its first store early in 2014 in the US, its entry into the ‘real world’ bricks-and-mortar environment was an irony not lost on many. Amazon had pioneered the demise of many high street retailers, particularly music, video and bookstores. But the core intention was to provide a physical touch-point with the consumer, a place to experience the brand physically, and to pick up and drop off goods; proof to many that even the digital world requires real world stores in order to satisfy the consumer. THE FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO Most retailers have developed a toolkit of formats ranging from flagships and brand centers to kiosks and corners. Modifying an existing portfolio of formats requires a ground-up approach incorporating the needs of the chosen multi-channel strategy, demographic and customer research, and detailed local knowledge in each market. The virtual modelling of this data using different formats in various densities and locations will generate scenarios upon which these formats can be fine-tuned, together with real performance metrics from stores. The variety of formats needed will differ significantly between retailers depending on many factors including range and geography. But key to the formats is the ability to rapidly change and flex in response to performance and opportunity. The rapid depreciation of the capital cost of store developments has also become a priority, pressured further by a need to be opportunistic and an ability to respond to higher property costs. These factors all point to an increasing demand for a highly cost efficient and rapidly deployable arsenal of store formats at the disposable of retail executives.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 6 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 7 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: INFRASTRUCTURE RANKINGS VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 8 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: EASE OF GETTING UP-AND-RUNNING RANKINGS VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 9 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: MARKET DEMAND RANKINGS VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 10 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT RANKINGS VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 11 OUR RESEARCH When determining how to develop and optimize store portfolio CLICK HERE TO VIEW OVERALL RANKINGS ► 3. Market demand - level of disposable income, domestic market for maximum performance, retailers need to consider a number of size, passenger cars and competitive environment. 1. Infrastructure - quality of transportation, such as ports, roads factors. Knowing where to locate stores, the size and volume of the CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► and rail links. footprint needed, the right channel mix and the local demographics 4. Economic environment - labor costs, inflation and availability CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► are all key components to getting the balance right. The use of a of technologies. number of different store formats which can be applied to different 2. Ease of getting up-and-running - quality and quantity of local CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► locations types and demographics can then provide a framework suppliers, rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and upon which to move forward. business freedom. 5. Ease of operating - prevalence of foreign ownership, trade CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► freedom, labor freedom, logistics performance and freedom The Retail Operations Index offers some insight into how easy or difficult from corruption. it is for retailers to scale or flex their portfolios in response to changing CLICK HERE TO VIEW RANKINGS ► market conditions by considering the following five key factors: EASE OF OPERATING RANKINGS VIEW OVERALL TOTAL RANKINGS ►
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 12 ASIA SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ► Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the bottom. HONG KONG South Korea Hong Kong in the top spot means that it offers the best conditions 27 China in the world for retailers to operate within. Hong Kong provides 16 4 Japan some of the most advanced infrastructure in the world through world-class air and seaports, state of the art telecommunications Hong Kong and efficient local and regional transportation. It also benefits from 1 12 Taiwan stable and efficient business operating conditions and a strong Thailand economic climate supported by a high influx of Chinese mainland 43 India 21 41 Vietnam visitors taking advantage of tourism and access to international 36 Philippines and luxury brands at tax free prices. As a result, most international 33 13 Malaysia brands have established multiple high-end flagship stores here. Sri Lanka 2 Singapore Despite the ranking, retailers should exercise caution in 2015. 42 Indonesia Economists predict slow growth in retail sales due to a reduction in cross-border tourist numbers and a general slowdown in China. This is already evident as we saw a steady decline in sales volume in 2014 compared to the previous year. In addition, rents have continued to rise to unsustainable levels making portfolio flexibility more important than ever. 11 Australia Hong Kong key stats: GDP: $291bn (IMF Oct 2014) Real GDP growth: 2.5% (IMF Oct 2014) Population: 7.24m (IMF Oct 2014) Unemployment: 3.3% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 4.4% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 7.5% growth y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 13 ASIA SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ► Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the bottom. SINGAPORE South Korea Singapore occupies second place in the rankings as a country 27 China with outstanding ease of operations, business and economic 16 4 Japan environment. Grocery stores, primarily NTUC FairPrice, and Dairy Farm, dominate the retail market together with Hong Kong major department store operators such as Takashimaya and 1 12 Taiwan Robinsons. The highly successful urban malls have attracted Thailand international brands and created a strong platform for retailers 43 India 21 41 Vietnam to operate successfully in Singapore. 36 Philippines However, Singapore is constrained by being a small island nation 33 13 Malaysia and the significant volume of international brands has largely Sri Lanka 2 Singapore saturated the market. This success has driven up rents and made 42 Indonesia consumers more value focused. To feed growth ambitions, international brands are being forced to explore the out of town suburban retail landscape with mixed results. It has also forced an explosion in e-commerce activity. A number of foreign retailers with a rigid approach to retail and 11 Australia unwillingness to adapt to local conditions are struggling to move to profitability and several have exited. Whilst recent retail sales have been under pressure and reducing, the overall local economic conditions are still strong. Singapore key stats: GDP: $308m (2014) Real GDP growth: 2.92% (2014) Population: 5.47m (2014) Unemployment: 2.8% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 1% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 6.5% y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 14 ASIA SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ► Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the bottom. CHINA South Korea At no 27, China’s ranking is much lower than its regional 27 China counterparts. This is primarily due to the difficulties retailers face 16 4 Japan in getting up and running in a challenging business environment. Tightening of regulations and the imposition of heavy fines Hong Kong over the past few years has forced some of the luxury retailers, China key stats: 1 12 Taiwan and grocery stores such as Walmart, to deliver optimisation or Thailand consolidation strategies in China. Other retailers are pulling out of GDP: $10,360bn (2014) 43 India 21 41 Vietnam the market altogether. Real GDP growth: 7.35% (2014) 36 Philippines Attracted by the size and scale of the consumer base, many 33 13 Malaysia retailers in the past had rapidly expanded in China but in many Population: 1.364bn (2014) Sri Lanka 2 Singapore cases had not carried out sufficient research on reliable customer 42 Indonesia demand to be successful. Potential for growth and domestic Unemployment: 4.6% (2013) competition had been overestimated. For many, incorrect Consumer Price Index: 2% (2014) worldbank.org predictions have led to portfolio underperformance and, as a result, investors in stores in China are increasingly cautious. Retail Growth: 11.9% y/y (2014) tradingeconomics.com That said, for many retailers China is viewed as ‘long-play’ where 11 Australia it is important to be there and build brand awareness and loyalty. Although it is fiercely competitive, it also holds massive potential for A balanced portfolio with flexible formats that can be easily scaled those who are well prepared and knowledgeable about the market. is the most successful retailer platform. Having the right local partner to help navigate the unique pitfalls and prizes of local markets can ensure a more successful entry. In spite of these restrictions, there is no denying that China is set to be one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world - A principal issue facing retailers in China is its fragmented market but not at the rate of growth that we have previously experienced. structure: the combination of small and medium-sized retailers Overall, China anticipates a moderate retail sales growth of 8% and a large disparity of regional consumer purchasing power over the next five years and a positive growth in middle-income means consumer demand can differ greatly from one end of the earnings. Such growth forecasts point to China surpassing the US country to the other. in retail sale volumes over the next few years and, therefore, is still Due to the much higher income levels, the major urban areas of very much a country in the spotlight for retailers. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou make up the majority of China’s Casual and fast fashion retailers such as H&M and GAP, sports retail sales. Although international chain stores are growing, apparel retailers and many international automotive retailers are expanding from the major centers has proved very challenging all underway with large-scale expansions and a focus on the lower due to provincial barriers to market and the difficulty in getting tier cities. To operate successfully, retailers will need to plan their business cases to ‘stack up’. Confidence is easily bruised. portfolios carefully, understand the market conditions for the sector Although as much as 80% of demand comes from the Tier 1 cities, in which they operate and undertake thorough due diligence studies high rental rates faced in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are around customer sales demand. Above all, China is a long-term driving some retailers away from the market altogether. investment and expectations should be tempered accordingly.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 15 ASIA SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ► Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the bottom. INDIA South Korea A poor economic environment score leaves India at a very low 27 China 43 in the rankings. This may appear a surprising result when 16 4 Japan comparing the position of other Asian countries, especially with India’s burgeoning middle class and a consumer culture. However, Hong Kong challenges regarding the operating environment together with 1 12 Taiwan high inflation have created a difficult environment for retailers to Thailand expand. 43 India 21 41 Vietnam In the past, India has been restricted by a lack of quality mall 36 Philippines space outside of the major cities as well as on-going regulatory 33 13 Malaysia challenges for foreign retailers. In spite of this, retailing records Sri Lanka 2 Singapore healthy growth due to rising income levels in the middle classes 42 Indonesia and an improvement in the presence of consumer marketing, which has boosted the awareness of brands and products and supported growth during over the past year. The Indian government through Prime Minister Modi is recognizing the regulatory issues FDI companies are 11 Australia experiencing and is starting to relax these, introducing free trade and beneficial tax initiatives to promote retail growth. The Indian retail market reached US$490 billion in 2013, 69% of which came from food. In recognition of this, India is identified as a hot spot for expansion, specifically in grocery, with Metro and Spar experiencing significant growth and Walmart and Tesco planning ambitious rollout programmes. Alongside this, Internet retailing of non-grocery products is seeing strong growth and is India key stats: now posing huge competition to store-based retailing. Retailers remain undeterred with Ikea, Uniqlo, Burger King and other food GDP: $2,067bn (2014) and beverage retailers planning expansion into India during 2015. Therefore, given the positive outlook of this country, we Real GDP growth: 7.42% (2014) expect India’s position in the ranking to climb during 2015. Population: 1.267bn (2014) Unemployment: 3.6% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 6.4% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 13% forecast to 2018 ibef.org.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 16 ASIA SPOTLIGHT ON: HONG KONG ► SINGAPORE ► CHINA ► INDIA ► INDONESIA ► Asian countries feature at all points across the index, illustrating the differing opportunities and markets, with Hong Kong sitting at the top of the ranking and Indonesia, India and Pakistan occupying the bottom. INDONESIA South Korea Slower economic growth and diminishing purchasing power, 27 China 16 especially for the lower income class, has dampened any potential 4 Japan retail growth in Indonesia. Nevertheless, throughout 2014, major retailers continued to expand into developing cities to capture the Hong Kong growing middle class. One example is Ikea who established their 1 12 Taiwan first store in Indonesia last year and are moving ahead with further Thailand stores. 43 India 21 41 Vietnam As the economic recovery gains some pace, retailers should 36 Philippines expect to see sales growth of at least 10% this year and this 33 13 Malaysia is being recognized by new international retailers who have Sri Lanka 2 Singapore entered the market, including H&M and Uniqlo,who recently 42 Indonesia opened their first stores in Jakarta. For many, barriers to entry make the only route of entry into Indonesia through a joint venture or franchise model, which can be a lower risk but often less successful model. It is our opinion that caution should be taken when considering entering the 11 Australia market, however, due to challenges with importing materials and products where regulations and transparency issues continue to impact time and cost. Looking ahead, we expect slower yet positive sales growth across Indonesia, and although there are uncertainties around the economic environment we should expect it to remain positive due to increasing consumption and the expanding presence of leading brands. Indonesia key stats: GDP: $889bn (2014) Real GDP growth: 5.02% (2014) Population: 253m (2014) Unemployment: 6.3% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 6.4% worldbank.org Retail Growth: 18.6% y/y (July 2014) euromonitor.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 17 EUROPE SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ► The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far easier across Europe than in other regions. That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates, UNITED KINGDOM employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing The United Kingdom ranks fifth overall, reflecting a retail market heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and in growth mode once again, driven primarily by the gradual Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long economic recovery. it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the There is major structural change underway with most large retail sector, to achieve something by10 Sweden way of recovery. scale retailers reducing or halting their network expansion programmes for larger formats. Demand for innovative retail experiences will continue to grow in popularity, perhaps driven harder by the recent issues faced by major UK supermarkets United Kindom The Netherlands who are challenged by over-sized and inefficient store footprints. Investment capital is being spent on improving and remodelling 5 9 Despite its high ranking, the UK is let down by its infrastructure, 22 Poland existing stores to protect market share (against tougher 7 scoring 18 in that category. This is primarily based on negative competition from the hard discounters Aldi and Lidl), and growing Germany public perception of issues such as road congestion that is the convenience store-base. But some commentators argue that affecting traditional out of town malls, and limited public transport France 14 26 Hungary there is overcapacity amongst the major grocers and it remains investment. This is then impacting more recent town center to be seen whether further consolidation activity occurs. This will schemes, resulting in the construction of fewer new shopping test the flexibility and adaptability of their formats. 23 Italy centers. Even though e-commerce is rising in popularity in the UK, 90% 20 18 Spain The rise of “super regions” shopping centers such as Bluewater, 37 Greece of sales revenue is still generated in the physical store with food Kent, the Trafford Center, Manchester, and the two London Portugal retailers continuing to dominate the market in 2015. Tesco Westfield centers is attracting trade away from regional or maintains that their ‘in store picking’ approach for online shopping neighbourhood shopping centers. As a result, local retailers remains the only way to operate profitability. and owners need to reassess their retail proposition and target customer demographics to re-align these assets to the available market. UK key stats: GDP: $2,941bn (2014) GDP growth: 2.55% (2014) Population: 65m (2014) Unemployment: 6% (Aug 2014) (lowest since 2008 and largest annual fall) Consumer Price Index: 1.5% (2014) imf.org databank.worldbank.org Retail Growth: 2.7% y/y (2014) reuters.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 18 EUROPE SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ► The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far easier across Europe than in other regions. GERMANY That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its Germany ranks seventh overall. Annual sales in goods and mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates, services topped €2 trillion in 2014 making it the world’s employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing fourth largest economy. An area holding back Germany, heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and however, is its business environment and, in particular, its labor Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long restrictions with strict regulatory control and high unionisation. it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the Furthermore, Germany also controls credit card/store card retail sector, to achieve something by10 Sweden way of recovery. uptake at source so access to easy credit is restricted. Like the UK, Germany is experiencing a polarisation effect in the retail sector. Mid-range retailers are being driven out of United Kindom the market due to the growth of the personalised experience The Netherlands high-end retailers are creating in store. Retailers are optimising 5 9 omni-channel strategies as a result of a 0.5% decline in in-store 22 Poland 7 sales since 2007. With general living costs predicted to rise, Germany consumer spending may show signs of slowing in several sectors, although as the economy is in a strong position, the government France 14 26 Hungary may resolve this through easing of taxes over the next few years. Despite a robust economy, Germany, like all EU countries, 23 Italy is at risk from a decrease in market demand due to EU-Russia sanctions and the Eurozone fragility, which leave it vulnerable. 20 18 Spain 37 Greece Nonetheless, over the past year the grocery retailers such as Portugal Lidl, Edeka and Aldi have reported strong sales in Germany, as have pharmaceutical retailers. GDP is forecast to rise 1.6% in 2015, indicating a boost in consumer confidence and a potential increase in retail sales. Looking forward, high-end retail is expected to be a driver of Germany key stats: growth in Germany over the next 5 years. GDP: $3,852bn (2014) GDP growth: 1.6% (2014) Population: 80.6m (2014) Unemployment: 5.3% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 1.5% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 2.6% on previous month (Aug 2014) reuters.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 19 EUROPE SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ► The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far easier across Europe than in other regions. POLAND That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its Whilst Poland sits in the top half of the index rankings, the mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates, country’s downfall is its infrastructure, ranking below even the employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing developing economies of Thailand and Morocco. Technological heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and improvements in Poland’s transport systems and more efficient Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long power infrastructure are desperately required, but funding new it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the projects is constrained due to high public debt. Alongside this, retail sector, to achieve something by10 Sweden way of recovery. Poland’s government remains prone to bouts of instability, making this country a little risky for major retail investment. Irrespective of that, Poland demonstrates strong market United Kindom demand and the encouraging result in our ‘business The Netherlands environment’ category shows the potential in this market. 5 9 22 Poland Poland is fast becoming an inspirational target for retailers, 7 in particular retail banks, who are planning small expansion Germany strategies underpinned by a strengthening labor market. France 14 26 Hungary Growth has been apparent amongst the discount retailer chains, particularly in the grocery and apparel sectors due to stronger consumer confidence. Such discount retail chain expansions 23 Italy are, however, pushing out many of the independents causing 20 18 Spain a corresponding reduction in their store portfolios. There have 37 Greece been fewer new overseas entrants into the market over the past Portugal few months, primarily due to instability in neighbouring Ukraine. E-commerce is also becoming increasingly popular in the Polish market with a steady growth in online revenues. But it is the closing price gap between bricks and mortar and digital sales, Poland key stats: alongside a predicted uplift in market conditions which could mean a rapid growth in store outlets for the major market GDP: $548bn (2014) players. Looking ahead, retailing in Poland is expected to continue GDP growth: 3.37% (2014) developing in constant value terms. It is our opinion that retail chains looking for expansion opportunities will need to look more Population: 38m (2014) towards the small and medium sized cities as well as retail parks, currently dominated by larger homeware stores such as Ikea. Unemployment: 10.4% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 0.1% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 1.7% y/y (Aug 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 20 EUROPE SPOTLIGHT ON: UNITED KINGDOM ► GERMANY ► POLAND ► THE NETHERLANDS ► The well-established retail markets of Europe present sound opportunities for optimizing store performance. Many countries benefit from strong supply chains and our results demonstrate that overall the ease of doing business and becoming operational is far easier across Europe than in other regions. That said, the recent economic crisis within the Eurozone has left its mark on the retail sector; on-going uncertainty over interest rates, employment levels and overall economic stability are still weighing THE NETHERLANDS heavily on the continent with, perhaps unsurprisingly, Greece and The Netherlands high ranking in our index is primarily due to Italy performing comparatively poorly. Only time will tell how long slower market demand and economic environment following the it takes the individual European economies, and consequentially the prevailing influence of Europe’s recession. After a few years of retail sector, to achieve something by 10 Sweden way of recovery. economic turmoil and cuts in government spending, many Dutch households have faced financial difficulties that have impacted consumer spending. Although real GDP has started to show some signs of recovery, the economic environment for retailers has remained relatively low as consumer confidence and there- United Kindom The Netherlands fore spending remains modest. 5 9 22 Poland Internet retailing continues to have an impact as major chains 7 dominate at the expense of independents, and in recent years Germany this grip has strengthened. France 14 26 Hungary Real GDP is projected to see some growth in 2015, and inflation and unemployment will likely fall. In light of this, retail conditions 23 Italy are predicted to improve in the Netherlands. Whilst growth is predicted to be modest and slow, growth will return as confidence 20 18 Spain 37 Greece returns. Portugal The Netherlands key stats: GDP: $870m (2014) GDP growth: 0.87% (2014) Population: 17m (2014) Unemployment: 6.7% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 1% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 0.7% y/y (July 2014) tradingeconomics.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 21 THE USA SPOTLIGHT ON: USA ► The USA, the global leader of the retail industry by revenue and third Many of the larger chains (JC Penny, Macys, Walmart, and Sears) USA key stats: in our rankings, boasts strong market demand and a good business and teen-focused stores (Aeropostale, Abercrombie, Wet Seal environment for retailers to operate successfully. That said, it does and American Eagle) announced significant closures across their GDP: $17,419bn (2014) rank lower in the quality of its infrastructure, which is a barrier to portfolios in Q1 as post-holiday underperformers are outed. operations. Although recently the price of petroleum has fallen, GDP growth: 2.39% (2014) In contrast retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot and Lowes are easing the cost of logistics and shipping, there has been a reduced providing a strong online experience. Mobile apps that navigate Population: 319m (2014) investment in freight rail, roads, bridges and ports relative to other stores, find products and direct orders to fulfilment centers are regions over the past few decades, and journey times in comparison common-place and growing. Unemployment: 7.4% (2013) are long and uncompetitive. As a result, the US has a growing need to invest in infrastructure, as shown in Arcadis’ report Global The US retailing environment was irrevocably changed by the Consumer Price Index: 1.6% (2014) worldbank.org Infrastructure Investment Index 2014, placing the USA tenth out recession and, while parts of the economy look ready to surge of 41 countries for the greatest potential for growth and investment ahead, the picture as a whole is a mixed one. Retail Growth: 5% y/y (Sep 2014) tradingeconomics.com in their economic infrastructure. There is a growing need to renovate -0.3% m/m (Sep 2014) reuters.com Retailers should be aware that recent regulatory enforcement and upgrade existing assets, with costs estimated by the American initiatives focused on the retail market at the national and state Society of Civil Engineers at $3.6 trillion by 2020. levels (US Environmental Protection Agency, Occupational Safety The highly fragmented nature of the US retail market has meant and Health Administration and equivalent) have also presented that its gradual revival is not homogeneous and has generally been challenges and have the potential to increase operational costs in focused in major cities, with many suburban areas still experiencing the year ahead. However we believe that consumer spending will downsizing and closure of stores. grow steadily over the coming months, supported by stronger job creation, low interest rates and lessening levels of household debt. Despite a tepid economic recovery in many parts of the US, certain locations and sectors remain strong. Overall vacancy rates are at To operate successfully in the USA, the retailer should understand their lowest levels in three years resulting in a corresponding rise in the fragmented nature of its market; much of the consumer rental rates particularly seen in the major cities such as Houston, spending will be in food and high-end retail due to increasing Chicago, Boston, New York City and San Francisco. Some of this can disparities in household earnings. The polarisation affect is driving be attributed to longer opening hours which are generating higher out mid-range retail players and this is particularly impacting revenues, as evidenced in Trader Joes for example, where substantial the saturated department store retailers in a similar way as the customer numbers are frequenting the stores until their 10pm trends we are seeing in the UK and Western Europe. This should be closing time. Furthermore, we are seeing markets strengthening in considered carefully in expansion or optimization strategies. New England, the West Coast, the Gulf Coast, and to some degree, the South East. There is real consolidation in US grocery wholesalers that could change the availability and pricing structures for retailers in subsequent years. In this market there is shift towards ‘high end’ and specialty foods that are more profitable, especially in those more affluent regions. 3 USA Many of the food retailers have been traditionally very regional and we are starting to see expansion beyond their small cluster of states, such as is evident with Meijer, Marianos and Heinens in the Mid-West. Contrary to some other retail sectors, many food retailers are experiencing a shift from destination big box single tenant stores to convenience locations. Focus is on attracting increased footfall through creating bespoke customer experiences in an effort to lift revenues and reduce footprint.
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 22 LATIN AMERICA SPOTLIGHT ON: BRAZIL ► MEXICO ► In spite of fractured markets and continuing economic uncertainty in Latin America, a growing consumer class has proven resilient against entrenched corruption, roller-coaster inflation and eroding BRAZIL currencies. Throughout the majority of the region’s commercial With poor infrastructure and economic and business markets, falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar have environments, Brazil nears the bottom of our index at 40. slowed growth in larger cities, notably Sao Paulo, while oversupply and slow demand continue to push vacancies up and rents down. A principal reason for its low ranking is high tax levels, Nonetheless, there are positive signs and many retailers are taking particularly import and distribution tax. These taxes combined advantage of changing franchise regulations and the lack of make imported goods almost a third more expensive than modern formats to push ahead with expansion plans. equivalent local goods and this understandably is discouraging consumers and retailers alike. Brazil’s highly regulated labor market and consumer debt have resulted in low investment in infrastructure leaving much of the networks in need of 6 Canada intensive upgrade. Only 1.5% of GDP is invested in infrastructure development. However, Brazil’s growing middle class and reasonably unsaturated retail market is providing some incentive for retailers. Retailing continued to show healthy sales growth in consumer goods and midrange fashion as well as electronic 3 USA appliances and pharmaceutical retail. The competitive landscape is growing and we are experiencing greater competition between retailers in Brazil. Multi-channel strategies are growing in popularity, GDP has increased in recent 25 Mexico years, and despite an uncertain economic outlook, it is predicted that the retail sector will experience steady growth in 2015. Although local players dominate much of the market, many Costa Rica 34 international retailers see this as an opportunity and several of the grocery retailers, including Carrefour and Walmart, have 28 Columbia experienced successes to date. The main caution for international players considering entry is the deficiencies in the country’s infrastructure and a failure to Peru 31 Brazil 40 Brazil key stats: address complications in regulatory issues for FDI. GDP: $2,346bn (2014) 47 Paraguay GDP growth: 0.14% (2014) Population: 202m (2014) 44 Uruguay Chile 19 48 Argentina Unemployment: 5.9% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 6.3% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: -0.9% y/y (July 2014) www.arcadis.com
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 23 LATIN AMERICA SPOTLIGHT ON: BRAZIL ► MEXICO ► In spite of fractured markets and continuing economic uncertainty in Latin America, a growing consumer class has proven resilient against entrenched corruption, roller-coaster inflation and eroding currencies. Throughout the majority of the region’s commercial markets, falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar have slowed growth in larger cities, notably Sao Paulo, while oversupply MEXICO and slow demand continue to push vacancies up and rents down. Ranked at number 25 in the index, Mexico is proving an Nonetheless, there are positive signs and many retailers are taking interesting country to watch. A weak economic climate has advantage of changing franchise regulations and the lack of typically led to caution in this market historically, but with modern formats to push ahead with expansion plans. a growing middle class, reduction in petroleum prices and administrative reforms attempting to create a more stable business environment, we are seeing a trend of foreign retailers 6 Canada entering the market. Luxury retail, pharmaceutical retail, apparel and several retail banks are all in competition for prime space. Where existing retailers, particularly in food, are reaching saturation in Tier 1 cities such as Mexico City and Monterrey, plans to expand into Tier 2 cities are underway and here lies the biggest opportunity for retailers entering the market. Retailers are up against significant challenges which are 3 USA highlighted by the lower scores of infrastructure and economic environment in our index. These include Mexico’s high unemployment, income level inequality and elevated inflation. Retailers considering Mexico in their portfolio should also be 25 Mexico aware of, and learn from, mistakes made in China where a lack of data around sales and consumer statistics led to the closure of underperforming stores. Plans should most definitely consider Mexico key stats: Costa Rica 34 the Tier 2 growing cities but also factor in the challenges around GDP: $1,282bn (2014) 28 Columbia availability of sales data and infrastructure quality for logistical purposes as well as closely monitoring the economic recovery. GDP growth: 2.12% (2014) Peru 31 Brazil 40 Population: 124m (2014) Unemployment: 4.9% (2013) 47 Paraguay Consumer Price Index: 4% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 1.2% y/y (Nov 2014) tradingeconomics.com 44 Uruguay Chile 19 48 Argentina
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 24 THE MIDDLE EAST SPOTLIGHT ON: UAE ► Overall, the retail market is booming across the Gulf Cooperation 45 Council (GCC). High levels of wealth and disposable income for the majority of GCC nationals and sections of the expat communities are driving a high level of spending. Whilst the majority of major brands are already located in the region, many more are looking to enter the market and or to further increase their presence. A UAE growing population, and one that is increasingly fashion conscious, is The UAE ranks eighth overall, with a strong economic attracting all the major fashion brands. environment and infrastructure ranking. Much of the UAE retail is driven by the tourist industry that further boomed in 2014 Automotive retail is enjoying a boost with Infiniti reporting Q2 sales due to government efforts to maintain a wide number of tourist increase of 31% compared to the same period last year. A surge of attractions, and a high calibre infrastructure in the country. A high-end retail malls has also attracted the retailer and this makes healthy performance is forecasted and consumer confidence the UAE one of the most lucrative markets for foreign investors. will be boosted as a result of economic stability, which will in turn lead to more spending, higher employment and increased numbers of expats and tourists. Key stats: Retailers entering or optimising portfolios in the UAE need to be aware of these demographics and market demands and GDP: $402bn (2014) tailor their portfolios accordingly. Most retail categories are expected to thrive, with the exception of grocery retail which GDP growth: 3.61% (2014) has been constrained by government price controls that protect consumers from inflation of imported foods. This in turn has Population: 9.45m (2014) affected revenues for the grocery retailers. Unemployment: 3.8% (2013) Consumer Price Index: 2.3% (2014) worldbank.org Retail Growth: 5% (2014) gulfnews.com emirates247.com Kuwait 32 Qatar 15 8 United Arab Emirates 17 Saudi Arabia
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 25 WHAT CAN RETAILERS DO TO ENSURE OPTIMUM RESULTS FROM THEIR STORE PORTFOLIOS ACROSS THE GLOBE? The success of a retailer’s portfolio lies in integrating 100 ASSESS ASSESS demographic and market information into a robust omni-channel strategy based around consumer preferences. Retailers will have detailed information on sales per store and on various fixed and variable operating costs, but the key to a PROPERTY FLEXIBILITY SCORE successful portfolio is in understanding the variables that affect these figures and the relationships between them. These variables include: ■ Location ■ Footprint ■ Functionality ■ Flexibility ■ Fiscal Impact ■ Design Impact. ■ Socio-economic market dynamics. Knowing how to optimise these variables, and comparing them for each store across an entire portfolio, can lead to faster and more accurate decision-making, and consequentially to achieving greater and more sustainable financial returns. The graph below illustrates areas for portfolio optimization by highlighting the highest and lowest performing stores against the highest and lowest flexibility scores to potentially improve sales. The flexibility score measures the retailers ability has to change property attributes of a location e.g. ability to relocate, terminate or sub-let). CLOSE RENEW LEASE/ ACQUIRE 0.0 SALES PER STORE 100 BEFORE TRANSFORMATION AFTER TRANSFORMATION
ARCADIS • RETAIL OPERATIONS INDEX ← START I CONTENTS → 26 CASE STUDY `The Challenge BEFORE CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE PORTFOLIO AFTER OPTIMIZATION ► A retailer with a large store portfolio across Asia had expanded at pace and scale over the past five years resulting in an inconsistent customer experience and subsequently, poorly performing stores. The retailer was looking for ways to achieve higher returns from their store portfolio. The Approach The first step to solving the problem was to understand why some stores were achieving higher returns than others in the portfolio, and to consider which lessons they could apply to the poorer performing stores to reduce unnecessary operating costs and help improve sales. The next step involved collating a large amount of detailed information, such as performance figures, location demographics, space efficiency, condition of the store property etc. in order to get a clear picture of the current situation. In order to fully understand this information, the data was entered into a model which generated simulated results that could test the impact of various strategic decisions on the retailer’s portfolio and help make the right investments or divestments to improve BEFORE portfolio returns. TOTAL STORE NO. 12 A Positive Outcome FLAGSHIP 4 STANDARD 3 The results were significant, providing the retailer MINI 5 with a reduction in operating expenditure and square SQFT 38,000 footage and improving the customer experience in SALES HEADCOUNT 200 selected stores through added innovative design. This led to a portfolio that generated greater returns, as REVENUE 45M can be evidenced in the graphic on the right. EXPENSE 20M ROI 2.3
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