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Summary: Intervention & Options Department /Agency: Title: Impact Assessment of EuP Implementing Measures for washing machines Stage: Draft EU Legislation vote at Regulatory Committee Version: 1.3 Date: 19 March 2009 Related Publications: Available to view or download at: http://www. Contact for enquiries: Martyn Webb Telephone: 0207 238 4628 What is the problem under consideration? Why is government intervention necessary? The level of carbon emissions and energy usage in the UK and globally remain a concern to the UK as a result of global warming, the emissions reduction targets the UK has set itself and the threat to the country's energy security. Climate change means that the UK must reduce emissions quickly and the carbon emission caps established with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme need to be met in the most cost effective manner. Domestic washing machines ("washing machines") account for a significant proportion (5%) 1 of energy use and carbon emissions associated with domestic appliance products. The continuing availability and sales of less efficient washing machines has meant that whilst there has been progress in terms of the market for efficient domestic washing machines, the level of installation and use of more energy efficient products has not been as great as desired. Technical solutions are available to produce energy efficient appliances which are in demand by consumers and which could use significantly less power during operation whilst providing the same level of cleaning performance. The market itself has not moved sufficiently quickly towards sufficiently low levels of power consumption. As a result, it is felt that Government intervention (at EU level, due to the Single Market) in the form of regulation to set minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) along with revising existing energy labelling requirements for washing machines should be introduced to achieve the desired cost effective abatement. This IA considers two alternative proposals for standards for washing machines (the European Commission Proposed Implementing Measures and the UK’s preferred proposals). The former considers MEPS both separately and combined with the European Commission's new proposed labelling scheme. It is deemed essential to assess the interaction between the two policies as their design and intended effects on the market as well as scenarios’ implications are intrinsically linked. Due to time constraints, the UK preferred position only considers the MEPS implementing scenario (without taking the labelling scheme into consideration). The latter scenario is nonetheless useful in informing the UK’s negotiating and voting position. 1 Amount of energy used by washing machines: http://whatif.mtprog.com/Level3/SummaryData.aspx?ScenarioID=0&SchemeID=1&FilterInfo=P12; As a proportion of household energy used in the following products: refrigerating appliances, washing machines, dishwashers, tumble driers, lighting, consumer electronics, ICT, cooking (gas and electric) 0 www.mtprog.com/spm/files/download/byname/file/10_07_08%20PA&P%2008%20v1.pdf . 1
What are the policy objectives and the intended effects? The Energy White Paper, issued on the 23 May 2007 announced a renewed commitment from the government to improve the performance of energy using products over the next 10–20 years, including proposals for product standards and targets to phase out the least efficient products. The objective of implementing restrictions for washing machines is to contribute to realising CO2 savings required to achieve the EU ETS cap in the most cost effective way, by mitigating for the effects resulting from barriers to behaviour change. Product policy is considered as a necessary complement to the EU ETS for the overall ambition to reduce CO2 in the most cost effective manner possible. Lower energy usage as a result of the lower power consumption (and therefore lower energy demand) will also contribute to energy security of the UK. What policy options have been considered? Please justify any preferred option. The UK, as a Member of the European Union, has implemented Framework Directive 2005/32/EC of 6 July 2005 establishing a framework for the setting of Ecodesign requirements for energy using products (EuP). Implementing Measures (IM) have been issued by the Commission setting out requirements for washing machines. These come in the form of two separate pieces of draft legislation: one setting minimum energy efficiency requirements for washing machines and the other labelling and information provision requirements. This impact assessment (IA) sets out the potential costs and benefits of implementing the washing machines measures according to currently drafted requirements. As explained above, these IMs relate to two separate pieces of draft legislation: one setting minimum energy efficiency requirements and the other revising existing energy labelling requirements. Accordingly, this IA distinguishes between the cost and benefits broadly attributable to these separate but related measures by assessing first those attributable to the proposed EC MEPS alone and then considering them in conjunction with the effects of the proposed revised labelling measures which are likely to be adopted in parallel. This IA considers two alternative proposals for standards for washing machines (the European Commission Proposed Implementing Measures and Defra's more ambitious proposals). As mentioned above, the former considers MEPS both separately and combined with the European Commission's proposed revision of the labelling scheme. Due to time constraints, the UK preferred position only considers the MEPS implementing scenario (without taking the labelling scheme into consideration). The latter scenario is nonetheless useful in informing the UK’s negotiating and voting position. The costs and benefits presented here are considered against the counterfactual of no implementation of the measure, and indeed for the EC and UK proposals where only MEPS are modelled, it has only been possible to net off the effect of currently implemented labelling using an end of model adjustment due to the time available. When will the policy be reviewed to establish the actual costs and benefits and the achievement of the desired effects? The IM will be subject to review not later than 5 years after it enters into force. This planned review will, however, not apply to the labelling requirements. Ministerial Sign5off For SELECT STAGE Impact Assessments: I have read the Impact Assessment and I am satisfied that, given the available evidence, it represents a reasonable view of the likely costs, benefits and impact of the leading options. Signed by the responsible Minister: .......................................................................................................... Date: 2
Summary: Analysis & Evidence Description: Setting of minimum standards and labelling for washing machines through European Commission Regulation and Directive implementing Directive 2005/32/EC ANNUAL COSTS Description and scale of key monetised costs by ‘main affected groups’ One5off (Transition) Yrs EC Proposals – MEPS & Labelling: £ n/a Costs to consumers of appliance purchases = £ 81,666,000 45,366,493 Increased CO2 emissions from HRE = £ 514,000 TOTAL COSTS: £82,180,220 [The costs projected to arise as a result of the minimum standards element of this policy which represent 86% of changes in carbon emissions are around £31.6m adjusted to reflect the effects of the COSTS current labelling scheme also included in the reference scenario (and £12.7m as originally modelled, without). The costs projected to arise attributable to labelling (introduced alongside the MEPS) are around £50.6m adjusted to reflect the effects of Average Annual Cost the current labelling scheme included in the reference scenario (and (excluding one off) £69.5m as originally modelled, without).]. 12 Total Cost (PV) £82m £9m Other key non5monetised costs by ‘main affected groups’ Manufacturers will be required to make changes to product documentation and labelling in order to accommodate information requirements included in the EU Implementing Measures. These costs, however, are likely to be negligible. 3
ANNUAL BENEFITS Description and scale of key monetised benefits by ‘main affected groups’ One5off Yrs EC Proposals – MEPS & Labelling: £ n/a Total Value Energy Savings (net) = £ 149,881,000 Total Value EU ETS allowance savings (from CO2 emissions savings) £ 34,214,000 Total value air quality damages avoided = £ 3,199,000 Total value of absolute reduction in required delivery of renewable energy £ 42,504,000 TOTAL BENEFITS: £229,800,000 [The benefits projected to arise as a result of the minimum standards BENEFITS element of this policy which represent 86% of changes in carbon emissions are around £197.3m adjusted to reflect the effects of the current labelling scheme also included in the reference scenario (and £192.8m as originally modelled, without). The benefits projected to arise attributable to labelling (introduced alongside the MEPS) are around £32.5m adjusted to reflect the effects of Average Annual Benefit the current labelling scheme included in the reference scenario. (and (excluding one off) £37m as originally modelled, without)]. £ 24m 12 Total Benefit (PV) £230m Other key non5monetised benefits by ‘main affected groups’ Key non monetised benefits fall under the following categories: • Post 2030 effects • Increased security of energy supply. • Global positive externalities. • Development of machines capable of even greater efficiency. • Effects on future washer dryers implementing measure. These are set out in further detail in section 4 below. 4
Key Assumptions/Sensitivities/Risks The Market Transformation Programme (MTP) model developed to generate costs and benefits from the EuP Implementing Measures has accounted for the impacts from other policies/initiatives also focusing on energy efficiency. The figures presented are therefore considered to be net of the impacts of these other policies. The Implementing Measures apply to washing machines. They do not include washer dryers: these are intended to be covered by a subsequent Implementing Measure. A future washer dryers measure is likely to follow the line taken in the washing machines IM for the washing part of the cycle. This has not been taken into consideration in this impact assessment. The UK preferred position has been modelled without the proposed change in the formula. This significantly underestimates the differences between the proposed policy scenarios. It does not, however, impact the EC proposals which the UK will be voting on. Both the UK and EC MEPS only scenarios have been modelled without taking into consideration the current energy label. Whilst neither of them are realistic scenarios (since, from a political perspective, it is clear that the UK proposal will not be adopted and the EC MEPS are unlikely to be accepted without an agreement on a new label in place), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption that the current effects of labelling continue in the future. In the time available for completing this impact assessment, it has not been possible to fully remodel the scenarios and present all the result in this document. However, headline calculations have been undertaken to allow the impact of the proposed revision of the EC label to be better assessed and these are separately presented in this impact assessment. A key feature of product policy is that costs are incurred in the year of purchase whereas the benefits are realised in later years (net of the running costs). Therefore, in order to present a balanced picture of both the costs and benefits of the Measure, the MTP model calculates the impact on the market up to 2020, and includes the impact of the use of the products bought up to 2020 for a further ten years (until 2030). It omits the costs and benefits associated with products bought beyond 2020, and also any impacts of the pre 2021 that occur beyond 2030. Price Base Time Period Net Benefit Range (NPV) NET BENEFIT (NPV Best estimate) Year 2008 Years 12 £148m £ 148m [MEPS only:£1655180m] What is the geographic coverage of the policy/option? UK(but same in EU) On what date will the policy be implemented? 1 year after publication in Official Journal – expected mid 2009 Which organisation(s) will enforce the policy? Under review but currently UK Trading Standards What is the total annual cost of enforcement for these organisations? Unknown but share of c. £1m. Note this amount is indicative for ALL products being considered under EuP Implementing Measures Does enforcement comply with Hampton principles? Yes Will implementation go beyond minimum EU requirements? No What is the value of the proposed offsetting measure per year? £ N/A What is the value of changes in greenhouse gas emissions? £ 34m Will the proposal have a significant impact on competition? No 5
Annual cost (£ £) per organisation Micro Small Medium Large (excluding one off) Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Are any of these organisations exempt? No No No No Impact on Admin Burdens Baseline (2005 Prices) (Increase Decrease) Increase of £ Unknown Decrease of £ Unknown Net Impact £ Unknown Key: Annual costs and benefits: (Net) Present Constant Prices Value 6
Summary: Analysis & Evidence Description: Setting of minimum standards and labelling for washing machines through European Commission Regulation and Directive implementing Directive 2005/32/EC 8 ANNUAL COSTS Description and scale of key monetised costs by ‘main affected groups’ One5off (Transition) Yrs UK preferred position – MEPS £ n/a Costs to manufacturers = £negligible Costs to consumers of appliances £17,935,000 45,366,493 Costs from increased CO2 emissions due to extra heating: £640,000 TOTAL COSTS: £18,574,640 [This policy scenario has been modelled without either the proposed revision of the EC label or the current energy label. Whilst this is not a realistic scenario (since, from a political perspective, it is clear that the UK proposal will not be adopted), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption that the current effects of labelling Average Annual Cost continue in the future. This scenario is nonetheless useful in informing the (excluding one off) UK's negotiating and voting position.] 12 Total Cost (PV) £19m £2m Other key non5monetised costs by ‘main affected groups’ Manufacturers will be required to make changes to product documentation and labelling in order to accommodate information requirements included in the EU Implementing Measures. These costs, however, are likely to be negligible. Due to lack of available information and difficulty in modelling these in the time available, the costs arising as a result of the UK's proposal to reduce tolerance levels may have been underestimated in this scenario. 7
ANNUAL BENEFITS Description and scale of key monetised benefits by ‘main affected groups’ One5off Yrs UK preferred position – MEPS £ n/a Total Value Energy Savings = £186,308,000 Total Value EU ETS allowance savings (from CO2 emissions savings) £42,656,000 Total value air quality damages avoided = £3,981,000 Total value of absolute reduction in required delivery of renewable energy £ 52,938,000 TOTAL BENEFITS: £285,883,896 [This policy scenario has been modelled without either the proposed BENEFITS revision of the EC label or the current energy label. Whilst this is not a realistic scenario (since, from a political perspective, it is clear that the UK proposal will not be adopted), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption that the Average Annual Benefit current effects of labelling continue in the future. This scenario is (excluding one off) nonetheless useful in informing the UK's negotiating and voting position.] £30m 12 Total Benefit (PV) £286m Other key non monetised benefits by ‘main affected groups’ Key non monetised benefits fall under the following categories: • Post 2030 effects • Increased security of energy supply. • Global positive externalities. • Development of machines capable of even greater efficiency. • Effects on future washer dryers implementing measure. These are set out in further detail in section 4 below. 8
Key Assumptions/Sensitivities/Risks The Market Transformation Programme (MTP) model developed to generate costs and benefits from the EuP Implementing Measures has accounted for the impacts from other policies/initiatives also focusing on energy efficiency. The figures presented are therefore considered to be net of the impacts of these other policies, as presented in section 5 of this IA. However, since the market for washing machines is currently saturated at A rated appliances, existing policies are not projected to have significant impacts on the market. The Implementing Measures apply to washing machines. They do not include washer dryers: these are intended to be covered by a subsequent Implementing Measure. A future washer dryers measure is likely to follow the line taken in the washing machines IM for the washing part of the cycle. This has not been taken into consideration in this impact assessment. The UK preferred position has been modelled without the proposed change in the formula. This significantly underestimates the differences between the proposed policy scenarios. It does not, however, impact the EC proposals which the UK will be voting on. Both the UK and EC MEPS only scenarios have been modelled without taking into consideration the current energy label. Whilst neither of them are realistic scenarios (since, from a political perspective, it is clear that the UK proposal will not be adopted and the EC MEPS are unlikely to be accepted without an agreement on a new label in place), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption that the current effects of labelling continue in the future. In the time available for completing this impact assessment, it has not been possible to fully remodel the scenarios and present all the result in this document. However, headline calculations have been undertaken to allow the impact of the proposed revision of the EC label to be better assessed and these are separately presented in this impact assessment. A key feature of product policy is that costs are incurred in the year of purchase whereas the benefits are realised in later years (net of the running costs). Therefore, in order to present a balanced picture of both the costs and benefits of the Measure, the MTP model calculates the impact on the market up to 2020, and includes the impact of the use of the products bought up to 2020 for a further ten years (until 2030). It omits the costs and benefits associated with products bought beyond 2020, and also any impacts of the pre 2021 that occur beyond 2030. Moreover, due to the difficulty in predicting the timing and types of technological changes likely to occur, this IA does not take into consideration the long run benefits due to possible technological innovation creating changes likely to produce more energy efficient products at lower prices. Price Base Time Period Net Benefit (NPV) NET BENEFIT (NPV Best estimate) Year 2008 Years 12 £ 267m £ 267m What is the geographic coverage of the policy/option? UK (but same in EU) On what date will the policy be implemented? 1 year after publication in Official Journal – expected mid 2009 Which organisation(s) will enforce the policy? Under review but currently UK Trading Standards What is the total annual cost of enforcement for these organisations? Unknown but share of c. £1m. Note this amount is indicative for ALL products being considered under EuP Implementing Measures Does enforcement comply with Hampton principles? Yes Will implementation go beyond minimum EU requirements? No What is the value of the proposed offsetting measure per year? £ N/A 9
What is the value of changes in greenhouse gas emissions? £ 43m Will the proposal have a significant impact on competition? No Annual cost (£ £) per organisation Micro Small Medium Large (excluding one off) Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Are any of these organisations exempt? No No No No Impact on Admin Burdens Baseline (2005 Prices) (Increase Decrease) Increase of £ Unknown Decrease of £ Unknown Net Impact £ Unknown Key: Annual costs and benefits: Constant Prices (Net) Present Value 10
Evidence Base (for summary sheets) 1. Introduction/Purpose The Framework Directive for the Eco design of Energy Using Products (EuP) was adopted in July 2005 and implemented in the UK and other Member States (MS) in August 2007. EuP establishes a framework by which the Commission and MS can bring forward measures to establish minimum standards relating to the environmental impacts of products (e.g. their energy consumption). The legal basis is Article 95 – Single Market. The ability to establish minimum energy performance standards in this way is a key foundation of the UK approach to reducing the carbon impacts of products in the UK. As a member of the EU, the UK is bound to implement the Framework Directive and any Implementing Measures made under it. Therefore, it can be argued that the UK has effectively ceded its legislative competence in this policy area and so cannot take unilateral measures to take regulatory/ legislative action in this area. The Implementing Measures addressed here apply to washing machines. Two linked measures (ecodesign and labelling) are considered here. They set out: • minimum washing machine appliances energy performance standards at different implementation stages from 2010 to 2013 (Annex I, Ecodesign measures); and • revised labelling requirements (Annex A1 to this document, extracted from Labelling measures). This Impact Assessment will enable the UK to assess the costs and benefits to the UK of the measure as proposed by the European Commission and help inform our negotiating and voting position during the forthcoming Regulatory Committee meeting and at any subsequent meetings. The UK has fully participated in all EU discussions on this measure to date, using evidence developed by the UK Market Transformation Programme (MTP) to inform discussions and to influence the development of the proposal. The Commission proposal has now been formally tabled for a vote of the relevant EU Regulatory Committee expected on 30/31 March 2009, where the UK will need to be in a position to either support or oppose the measures. Voting at the Committee is under the Qualified Majority Voting Procedure. If approved the measures will go to the European Parliament for Scrutiny; if not approved they will then be passed to the Council to resolve. If approved these measures will be subject to review no later than [5] years after entry into force (around 2010). 2. Rationale for Intervention According to the results of the EU Preparatory Study on washing machines, the primary environmental impact of washing machines is related to energy consumption in the use phase. The average annual energy consumption of washing machines has improved over the last decade. The Preparatory Study, however, suggests that additional improvements are unlikely without new policy measures. The continued use and sale of inefficient and high energy using washing machines represents a market failure in the sense that whilst negative externalities such as carbon emissions may be compensated for in market transactions, via the EU ETS, this mechanism does not correct for all market failures e.g. where barriers to behaviour change still persist (for example, those due to a lack of, or inequality in, information). The analysis is consistent with the “third leg” of the Stern Report (the need to develop policies to remove barriers to behaviour change such as a lack of reliable information, transaction costs, and organisational and individual inertia) and provides the rationale for the Implementing Measures which complements the EU ETS as described above. 11
Moreover, the Energy White Paper, issued on the 23 May 2007 announced a renewed commitment from the government to improve the performance of energy using products over the next 10–20 years, with this including proposals for product standards and targets to phase out the least efficient products. 3. Content of the proposed Implementing Measures 3.1 Efficacy and Functionality Requirements The Implementing Measures addressed here apply to washing machines. They do not include washer dryers: these are intended to be covered by a subsequent Implementing Measure. Moreover, they are restricted to washing machines used for domestic use and do not apply to industrial washing machines. The minimum standards/ecodesign measure sets out in its Annex I (ecodesign requirements), minimum washing machine performance standards at different implementation stages from 2010 to 2013 (expected to be promulgated as an EU Regulation directly applicable to all market parties). These are accompanied by revised labelling requirements contained in a separate implementing measure and reproduced in Annex 1 of this IA (expected to be promulgated as an EU Directive requiring transposition into UK legislation). In practice, the implications of the minimum standard requirements are that some lower efficiency washing machines will be phased out by the regulations at different stages and some models will be modified in order to comply whilst others will be allowed to remain on the market. The revised labelling requirements provide information to consumers and incentives to manufacturers to produce appliances with better energy efficiency than required by the minimum standards. Competition on energy efficiency provides consumers with corresponding increased choice. The potential impacts from the phase out and/or remodelling of some of these products are described in section 4. The Ecodesign Implementing Measure under the EuP Framework Directive sets out minimum performance standards for washing machines, summarised in Table 3.1, alongside the alternative ‘UK preferred position’. Both scenarios have been modelled for this Impact Assessment. The implication of the requirements of the Implementing Measures for washing machines are set out in Table 3.2 below. Table 3.2 demonstrates the proportion of products assumed to be removed from the market by the minimum standards (ecodesign). Washing machine efficiency is defined using the Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) which allows a comparison of different appliances whilst taking into account machine capacity: the more efficient the technology, the closer the value of EEI is to zero. Table 3.1: Requirements of the Implementing Measures (IM) 2010 2012 2013 Formula and (1 yr after IM) (3 yrs after IM) (4 yrs after IM) Tolerances EC proposal Removal of all washing Removal of all washing The formula will be position machines higher than EEI machines higher than changed into an annual 68 (current A class) EEI 59 (equivalent to energy performance unofficial A+ 0.17 requirement and energy New labelling scheme kWh/kg) efficiency verification introduced tolerances lowered from 15% to 10%. UK preferred Removal of all washing Removal of all washing The formula will be position machines higher than EEI machines higher than EEI changed into an annual 68 (current A class) 59 (equivalent to unofficial energy performance A+ 0.17 kWh/kg) requirement with a New labelling scheme different mix of wash introduced cycles and energy efficiency verification lowered to 5%. 12
Table 3.2: Implications of requirements of the Implementing Measure (IM) Proportion removed from the market Proportion removed from the market compared compared to Ref scenario 2010 to Ref scenario 2013 1 year after IM 2010 4 years after IM 2013 1.64% 47.5% The intention of the measure is to phase out less efficient washing machines in favour of products with greater energy efficiency. A summary of the requirement levels in the implementing measure and UK preferred position is set out in Table 3.3 below. Table 3.3: EEI labelling requirement levels in the Implementing Measure (IM) 2008 – 2010 2010 onwards EEI A3
The remainder of the document is structured as follows: Section 4 assesses the environmental, economic and social impacts at the three life cycle phases of a product and presents the associated costs and benefits. Section 5 considers the other policies and measures for the product area (which have been included in the reference scenario). Section 6 summarises the overall costs and benefits under both scenarios. Finally, section 7 presents the Climate Change Policy Cost Effectiveness Indicator. 4. Identification of Potential Impacts The Implementing Measures, in setting the requirements identified in section 3.1 above, seek to improve the environmental performance of washing machines. Environmental performance of products must be considered throughout their life cycle, at the component/product manufacturing, usage and end of life phases. Table 4.1 below sets out the potential environmental, economic and social impacts at each of the life cycle phases examined in subsequent sections. As explained above, these IMs come in the form of two separate pieces of draft legislation: one setting minimum energy efficiency requirements for washing machines and the other revised labelling and information provision requirements. Accordingly, for the proposed EC measures, this IA distinguishes between the cost and benefits broadly attributable to these separate but related measures by assessing first those attributable to the MEPS alone and then considering them in conjunction with the effects of the Labelling measures which accompany them. Moreover, MEPS are mandatory whereas the energy saving effects attributable to labelling will depend on the actions of manufacturers and consumers in designing and purchasing products that are more efficient than the mandatory minimum standards set out in the MEPS measure improvements. The main implication of the Ecodesign Implementing Measure will be to phase out some lower efficiency washing machines and modify others to ensure that they comply with the new requirements. Mandatory labelling requirements encourage manufacturers to produce appliances which go beyond the minimum standards prescribed by the Ecodesign requirements. They also provide consumers with additional information enabling them to take energy consumption into consideration when purchasing a washing machine. Taken together, these factors will result in a shift in the market towards energy efficient products above the minimum standards/MEPS. Without revised labelling provisions, manufacturers have little incentive to produce appliances with energy efficiencies which go beyond the required minimum standards. Accordingly, energy savings which go beyond Ecodesign MEPS can be attributed to labelling. It is, however, important to note that the two pieces of legislation are intrinsically linked: without the MEPS, the labelling on its own would have different effects than those it has when introduced alongside them. The MEPS required by the Implementing Measures (Ecodesign requirements) will be mandatory. The extent of their impact will depend on whether manufacturers of appliances failing to meet the threshold choose to improve the energy efficiency of the products they sell or are removed from the market. 2 As mentioned above, beyond providing information to consumers, labelling requirements encourage manufacturers to produce appliances with energy efficiencies above the minimum standard required. Whilst displaying the revised label on products will be mandatory, improvements in energy efficiency beyond those prescribed by the MEPS are voluntary. The effects of such improvements are attributed, in this impact assessment, to the labelling requirements: they are not, however, mandatory effects since the 2 A third option of manufacturers illegally placing on the market appliances which do not meet the minimum standards is possible but not considered in this Impact Assessment. This scenario of no attempt at compliance is not considered to be likely. 14
manufacturer has a choice as to whether or not to improve the energy efficiency of the appliances. Table 4.1: Areas of potential impacts Impact Category Life cycle stage Environmental Economic Social Material and energy use Costs of production for manufacturers. None foreseen. requirements during Unlikely possibility of producers of non manufacturing process compliant washing machines going out anticipated to be minimal of business as current suppliers are increase due to the measure. capable of meeting measures. Availability of technology and limited need for R&D – most technology Component/Product required has already been Manufacture demonstrated. Other compliance issues e.g. labelling, supply chain management, competitive position. Market surveillance and compliance systems and processes. Purchase cost of washing machines to consumers. Changes in CO2 emissions Changes in electricity consumption None foreseen across UK. across UK due to less power Changes in air quality as consumed. result of less electricity being Changes in energy costs for washing generated. machine users (consumers) resulting Usage from any changes in electricity consumption. Changes in the required delivery of renewable energy as a result of changes in electricity demands. None foreseen None foreseen. Costs of disposal as None foreseen End of life previously and take back system costs attributed to WEEE Directive. Certain benefits have not been taken into account in this impact assessment. The key non monetised fall under the following categories: • Post52030 effects – The MTP model accounts for all impacts from the use of washing machines from the implementation of the measure up until 2030. In so doing, it models the impact on the market up to 2020 and includes the impact of the use of these products up until 2030. Given that the lifespan of washing machines ranges from approximately 10 to 14 years, this represents a significant underestimation of the benefits. • Increased security of supply – The UK requires less energy than it otherwise would as a result of lower washing machine energy use. • Global positive externalities – The regulation may also produce potentially wider benefits on a global scale: (1) in particular in areas where there are no “caps” on carbon emissions. Washing machines produced in or for the EU and sold in these areas, as well as those produced locally to EU standards for the UK and EU markets and also used locally, will use less energy and produce lower carbon emissions than would have otherwise been the case. (2) Adopting the IM will also assist in enabling a longer run agenda shift towards tighter emission “caps” in the future. • Development of machines capable of even greater energy efficiency – The combination of labelling schemes and higher minimum standards is intended, among other, to produce technological changes in the form of increased innovation and product development. The Implementing Measure may promote technology developments including, for example the development of load sensitive machines creating the possibility of further energy saving technology in the future. 15
• Effects on future washer5dryers implementing measure – washer dryers are intended to be covered by a subsequent Implementing Measure. A future washer dryers measure is likely to follow the line taken in the washing machines IM for the washing part of the cycle. (This benefit, will, however, be monetised and attributed to the washer dryer implementing measure when such measure is considered. Accordingly, it would not be appropriate since it would involve double counting its impact, to attribute it directly to this measure). The extent of impact under each of the policy options described below will be strongly influenced by the decisions taken by consumers and manufacturers when choosing which efficiency of washing machines they will purchase/produce. Shifts between the lower energy classes (e.g. C to B) are more cost effective than those between the higher energy classes (e.g. A to A1). A set of assumptions has been made to predict behaviour with regards to the level of efficiency they will purchase. These assumptions are set out in Tables 4.2 for the following policy options: Reference scenario All costs and benefits of the two scenarios below are measured relative to a reference scenario. The reference scenario takes account of underlying trends in markets and technologies, and accounts for the estimated impacts of historical and current policy measures. It indicates what would happen in the market – e.g. predictions of changing consumer purchasing preferences if no further measures were to come into place. It thereby provides a baseline from which to measure the expected impacts of the IM. The reference scenario includes an assumption that the current effects of labelling continue in the future. EC proposed IM This is considered to be the most likely policy scenario. It is based on the EC proposed IM as set out in the latest version of the working documents and the consequential impacts of the IM on manufacturer production/consumer purchasing behaviour (across appliances of all energy efficiencies which will be available). The EC proposed IM has been modelled both with and without the proposed revision of the EC label. In the scenario modelled without the energy label (EC proposal – MEPS), the current energy label has not been taken into consideration. Whilst this is not a realistic scenario (since, from a political perspective, the EC MEPS will not be accepted without an agreement on a new label in place), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption that the current effects of labelling continue in the future. In the time available for completing this impact assessment, it has not been possible to fully remodel the scenario and present all the result in this document. However, headline calculations have been undertaken to allow the impact of the proposed revision of the EC label to be better assessed and these are separately presented in this impact assessment. UK preferred position This presents a more ambitious proposal with minimum standards being introduced a year earlier than proposed by the European Commission and a smaller allowance for uncertainty in measurement (5%, as opposed to 10%). Consumers are still expected to purchase appliances across the range of available efficiencies remaining on the market. The effects of the ecodesign measures are considered alongside those of the European Commission's new proposed labelling scheme. The UK has proposed a more ambitious and representative formula for the calculation of the energy efficiency of appliances. This has, however, not been taken into account in the model due to the complexity involved in modelling it. The UK preferred position (UK preferred position – MEPS) has been modelled without either the proposed revision of the EC label or the current energy label. Whilst this is not a realistic scenario (since, from a political perspective, it is clear that the UK proposal will not be adopted), this does not allow a fair comparison with the reference scenario which includes an assumption 16
that the current effects of labelling continue in the future. In the time available for completing this impact assessment, it has not been possible to fully remodel the scenario and present all the result in this document. No headline results have been calculated or presented to compensate for this due to the lesser importance of this scenario. This scenario is nonetheless useful in informing the UK's negotiating and voting position. Table 4.2: Summary of two IM scenarios modelled Requirement EC IM UK preferred position Effect of MEPS proposed in table 3.1. Effect of MEPS proposed in table 3.1. (with second stage 4 years after IM). (with second stage 3 years after IM). Minimum This would result in a reduction in supply This would result in a reduction in standards and sales of less efficient models. supply and sales of less efficient models. The effect of a revised label in 2010 and The effect of a revised label in 2010 reclassification of the energy efficiency and reclassification of the energy classes showing an uplift and definition efficiency classes showing an uplift Labelling of better than A classes/ classes above and definition of better than A the relevant MEPS at any given time. classes/ classes above the relevant MEPS at any given time. A correction has been made for the A correction has been made for a reduction in the measurement allowance reduction in the measurement Measurements from 15% to 10% for energy allowance from 15% to 5% for energy measurements measurements to demonstrate greater saving potential Key modelling assumptions are as follows: • There will be no change in consumer preferences for washing machine sizes or features; • Manufacturers will respond to the measure by improving their machines to perform just better than the new requirements and the new label class thresholds; • Machine prices will continue to decrease, as before (1% p.a.) for energy performance classes that already have a significant share on the UK market, and faster than that (2.5% p.a.) for newly introduced products; and • Under the influence of energy labelling, manufacturers will gradually increase the production of machines in and better than the current A class. It is also assumed that the Implementing Measure has a small effect on the market in 2009, before it comes into force, since manufacturers have begun to adapt their products in anticipation of the Implementing Measure coming into force. Overview of the UK Market for Washing Machines The UK washing machine market consists almost entirely of automatic front loading washing machines (99.7%).3 Three main players manufacture 60% of washing machines on the UK market under different brand names. These are: • Indesit accounts for around 34% (under brands Hotpoint (22.5%) and Indesit (11.5%)); • BSH group (Bosch, Siemens and Neff brands) with market share of approximately 12.7%; • Electrolux group (Electrolux, Zanussi, Tricity Bendix, AEG) with approximately 10%. A number of smaller brands that make up the remaining 40% with the leading player, Indesit, accounting for a significant share of the 20% of the the market which is made up of retailer 3 The exceptions are a few US style large capacity automatic top loaders some slim0line automatic top loaders (top loaders in total are 0.3%) and a very few semi0automatic top loaders(
exclusive models and own label products. Two other brands each hold over 5% of the UK market, Beko and Hoover. The remaining 15% of the UK market is made up of smaller brands including Whirlpool, Servis, Miele, Samsung, LG etc. By the time the IMs come into force, there will be no manufacturers of washing machines in the UK. Manufacturing of these appliances has, over time, moved to lower cost manufacturing countries. The two remaining washing machine production facilities in the UK (Indesit/Hotpoint and Hoover) will close in the near future: Hotpoint announced closure on 3 March 20094 and Hoover plans to close on 14 March 20095. The majority of the washing machines supplied to the UK are manufactured in the rest of Europe, particularly Italy and the lower cost manufacturing countries such as Poland and Turkey. Some of the smaller brands of washing machine are not produced by the brand owner, but bought from third party manufacturers who do not retail under their own brands. A small number of machines come from Korea and China. Washing machines in the UK are very similar to those found in other EU member state. The UK exhibits a preference for appliances with slightly larger load sizes and higher spin speeds than those found elsewhere. Note that approximately 15% of sales and ownership of washing machines in the UK are washer driers, a product which is not covered by this EuP implementing measure. The supply chain for laundry appliances (washing machines and dryers) is dominated by the electrical multiple stores which in 2007 took 48% of sales. These are followed by independent retailers (17%), department stores (11%), internet (9%) and others including grocery retailers, catalogue show rooms and kitchen specialists (15%). The situation may have changed slightly since 2007, with a number of internet only electrical retailers (i.e Empiredirect, Miller Bros) entering administration during 2008 (although their websites have since been bought by new or existing incumbents), and the electrical multiple stores facing more competition from department stores and grocery retailers. The remaining sub sections in this section set out the potential costs and benefits to each stakeholder group as they relate to the potential impacts identified in Table 4.1 above. 4.1 Component/Product Manufacture 4.1.1 Component/Product Manufacture – Environmental The main implication of the Implementing Measure will be to phase out some lower efficiency washing machines and modify others to ensure that they comply with the new requirements. In order to adapt and meet the new standards some washing machines will require different components. Changes may include increasing the drum size, decreasing the distance between the inner and outer drum, optimising the control systems, improving insulation, the motor, the water distribution system and/or the mechanical action of the appliance. Overall, the changes in the material composition itself are, however, likely to be negligible. 4.1.2 Component/Product Manufacture – Economic 4.1.2.1 Making Products Compliant The intention of the Implementing Measure is to make washing machines more energy efficient and to phase out less energy efficient products moving towards products already in existence. The main changes likely to occur are as described in section 4.1.1 above. 4 BBC. 4 March 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7922445.stm 5 BBC, 6 March 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/7929423.stm 18
In the time available for completing this Impact Assessment, it has been very difficult to obtain any clear information on the potential costs to manufacturers of implementing the requirements of the Implementing Measure. Technical experts contracted under the Market Transformation Programme (MTP) have been unable to obtain information from industry. The general impression is that there will be negligible effects on manufacturers’ profitability due to the costs being passed onto consumers through higher prices paid for compliant products, economies of scale and the fact that the market has already begun transition to producing compliant products. A brief analysis of this is provided below. Costs to Manufacturers The availability of the more energy efficient washing machines means that the technological solutions for manufacturers to comply with the measure are already available. Further improvements in efficiency and ensuring compliance with the regulation requires some technological changes, mainly as described in section 4.1.1 above, and there may be minimal research and development (R&D) costs. Lead times enable the market to minimise any cost implications from increased efficiency regulations by integrating design and manufacturing changes into normal industrial cycles. Future developments should be incorporated into the manufacturers usual 3 to 5 year design platform for new ranges and are therefore not expected present an additional cost over normal product improvement practices. Past experience from similar regulation has shown 6 that leading white goods manufacturers have been able to meet energy performance requirements at little or no additional cost. This is due to the following reasons: • There has been sufficient advanced notice to meet the requirements through normal re design processes. • Manufacturers have been innovative in the ways in which energy performance has been improved. • The costs of some components have fallen considerably. For example, electronic controls have become very much more available and cheaper. These reasons are considered to be equally applicable to the current proposals. Over time the economies of scale are expected to drive down the cost of new components. Any marginal costs incurred by manufacturers in the short term are expected to be passed on to the consumers in the short term, but again past examples of similar regulations have not demonstrated significant price increases to consumers. Costs to Consumers The main costs to consumers associated with the Implementing Measure will be related to the difference in purchase costs of those washing machines which are to be phased out and those that they select to replace them. Generally it is assumed that manufacturers' costs for producing more efficient models will be passed on to consumers, so any changes in the manufacturing cost as a result of the measure will be reflected in the market price. 6 Do energy efficient appliance cost more? ECEEE report 2007 Mark Ellis International Energy Agency, France 19
Currently the more efficient models tend to be offered at a premium price due to the brand position or additional features that generally higher specification models demand. It is assumed that as these more efficient models become more readily available the price differential between current non compliant models will reduce as the compliant models take up more of the volume sales and are also available in more standard formats with basic features. In the 3rd quarter of 1999 MEPS were introduced in the UK. The energy consumption of refrigerators and freezers fell markedly around this date. Taking into account the relevant counterfactuals, the real average price of these types of equipment also declined substantially, apparently unaffected by the introduction of MEPS7. In 1997, a voluntary agreement between manufacturers and the European Commission resulted in a commitment to reduce energy efficiency of washing machines. There is no information to suggest that this had an impact on prices. Table 4.3 a) sets out the assumed percentage sales, by energy label class, under the EC proposal. Tables 4.3 b) below set out the prices used to predict the effects on purchase costs for consumers. Cost and market share projections are based on GfK data, studies (including the Preparatory Study and research by the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory which provides evidence to the US government on US standards setting), market information and expert opinion. Due to the difficulty in predicting developments in future technologies, it is difficult to accurately predict future costs and market shares. The estimates are, however, based on expert interpretation of the best information available. Since costs are difficult to predict, our experts have erred on the side of caution in their cost projections. Table 4.3a) Percentage sales assumed for washing machines under the EC proposal (MEPS & Labelling) Proposed classes A2 A1 A B C D Current classes A+ A B C 2009 0 1 45 54 0 0 2010 0 2 53 45 0 0 2013 0 5 90 5 0 0 2020 3 12 85 0 0 0 Table 4.3b) Washing machine costs used in impact modelling for the IA Current Energy Cost Cost Cost Cost energy class excl excl excl excl class 2010 VAT VAT VAT VAT 2009 2010 2013 2020 (£) (£) (£) (£) A2 293 A1 278 275 267 249 A+ A 226 224 217 203 (unofficial) A B 218 216 209 195 Table 4.4 sets out predictions for net costs to consumers (as generated by the impact modelling underpinning this IA) resulting from the Implementing Measure under the two different scenarios. 7 Do energy efficient appliance cost more? ECEEE report 2007 Mark Ellis International Energy Agency, France Schiellerup, 2001 20
Under the EC proposal, the impact of the MEPS and MEPS & label have been set out separately. Table 4.4: Costs to Consumers (excl. VAT) from washing machine purchases resulting from the IM (£2008) EC proposal – MEPS & label UK preferred position 5 EC proposal 5 MEPS MEPS £ £ £ Year (Discounted @3.5%) (Discounted @3.5%) (Discounted @3.5%) 2009 70,100 1,217,600 70,100 2010 – Stage 1 203,500 2,424,000 203,500 2011 41,800 3,681,900 41,800 2012 110,300 4,882,000 2,444,000 2013 – Stage 2 1,599,900 7,213,400 4,687,400 2014 3,793,300 7,591,800 3,793,300 2015 2,952,800 8,215,900 2,952,800 2016 2,164,100 8,716,600 2,164,100 2017 1,415,800 9,046,500 1,415,800 2018 728,600 9,331,700 728,600 2019 86,400 9,527,500 86,400 2020 513,000 9,817,000 513,000 Total 12,293,000 81,666,000 17,935,000 TOTAL 12m 82m 18m 4.1.2.2 Revised Energy Labelling Requirements The Implementing Measure sets out specific requirements regarding information on efficiency performance, among other, that manufacturers will be obliged to supply. These are set out in detail in the Annex A1 of this Impact Assessment. Information requirements are the same for all scenarios. Some information is to be provided on the product itself, with other information to be made available from manufacturer’s information (brochures) and on public access websites. Manufacturers already provide certain information on products and websites, and will only incur costs in re designing labelling and product information leaflets, as well as web re design costs. These are not deemed to be significant costs in comparison with the volume of sales and costs of the appliances. 4.1.2.3 Supply Chain Management and Competitive Position It has not been possible to quantify what this effect will be on manufacturers of non compliant products following the measures. However, it is expected that the effect will be consistent across the industry since manufacturing is undertaken by a few key players who supply a variety of appliances under different brand names and also exclusive brands/models to retailers. The potential solutions for ensuring compliance with the Implementing Measure requirements are likely to involve a range of the supply chain situations along the lines of those described in section 4.1.1 above which provides more detail on supply chain issues associated with the Implementing Measure. Expert opinion from the Market Transformation Programme suggests that there is widespread availability of suppliers of the components required to ensure compliance with the Implementing Measure, and in a competitive market, suggesting that there is unlikely to be a shortage of required parts and that individual suppliers will not be able to impose significantly higher prices due to higher demand. There are therefore unlikely to be any significant competition issues associated with adoption of the Implementing Measure. 21
The range of supply solutions and the number of companies able to provide the required solutions also suggest that it will be relatively straightforward for manufacturers to adapt their supply chains to the requirements of the Implementing Measure at minimal cost. Competition Assessment The proposal as it stands does not directly limit the number or range of suppliers to the UK washing machines market. Companies would be free to enter and exit the market as previously, with the only restriction being that those placing products on the market ensure that they are compliant with the regulations. It is unlikely that the Implementing Measures will significantly indirectly limit the number of suppliers due to an increase in the costs of production, thereby discouraging companies from entering or expanding into the market. The initial fixed costs of setting up a business (and marginal costs of producing washing machines resulting in higher product prices) may be marginally higher after the Implementing Measures comes into force. This is, however, unlikely to have a significant impact on competition. There are currently only around 5 major manufacturers 8 of washing machines remaining in Europe, after much consolidation in the industry in the 1990s. New entrants from outside the EU are developing a position in the market, however, competing on price and on quality and energy performance, This suggests that the requirements may increase competition rather than decrease it. It has not been possible, with the data available to quantify the overall effect in this Impact Assessment. It is not expected that the measure will affect the range of models on the market in terms of size and value as the main manufacturers currently produce top and lower end specification models. The measure will apply across the European Union in an equal manner and it is therefore unlikely that UK firms will be affected any more than their competitors in other Member States. The UK divisions of the main manufacturers tend to service the marketing and supply elements of the business rather than R&D or manufacturing. The UK currently has a small washing machine manufacturing presence with Indesit/Hotpoint and Hoover having small facilities in Wales. These will soon close as companies seek to reduce output and costs in a period of economic decline: Hotpoint announced closure on 3 March 20099 and Hoover plans to close on 14 March 200910. Firms operating within the market would still be likely to compete since there is no indication that the measure will encourage firms to collude or share information regarding pricing. 4.1.2.5 Market Surveillance and Compliance Systems and Processes Under the Implementing Measure, manufacturers are obliged to carry out a conformity assessment of any product which they place on the market in accordance with Article 8 of Directive/2005/32/EC. They can choose between the internal design and control system or the management system set out in Annexes IV and V of Directive 2005/32/EC in order to comply with this requirement. The internal design and control system requires that a technical documentation file is compiled which contains specific information relating to the design and performance of the product against the standards set down in the Implementing Measure. The latter system involves generating and maintaining similar information and also establishing and documenting the management control and design process. 8 BSH (Bosch, Siemens, Neff); Indesit (Hotpoint); Electrolux (Electrolux, Zanussi, AEG); Miele; Merloni. LG, and Arcelik (Beko) are non0 EU based suppliers. 9 BBC. 4 March 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7922445.stm 10 BBC, 6 March 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/7929423.stm 22
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