Residential Property Tax Reform in Northern Ireland: Impact Analysis and Spatial Redistribution
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Residential Property Tax Reform in Northern Ireland:
Impact Analysis and Spatial Redistribution
BY WILLIAM J. MCCLUSKEY, PH.D.; PEADAR DAVIS;
AND LAY CHENG LIM, PH.D.
T he treatment of housing for local
rates (property tax) has been the
subject of a continuing debate in the
of such a change to inform policy mak-
ers and decision makers on the future
direction of domestic rating in Northern
United Kingdom (UK) for decades, as it Ireland and elsewhere. A geographic in-
has been in many other countries. The formation system (GIS) also was used to
domestic sector in Northern Ireland has show the spatial distribution of tax and
recently been subject to rating reform the effect of a shift from the previous net
and a revaluation to a capital-improved annual value (NAV)-based domestic rates
basis. Previously, the domestic sector to one based on capital values. We found
was valued on the basis of rental values that a discrete value system performs well
prevalent in the late 1960s for the 1976 in terms of minimising the number of
General Revaluation (the last time losers (taxpayers with higher levies) and
domestic property was revalued). The providing a fairer and more equitable
valuation list was therefore out of date, local tax and that impact analysis has an
and there were significant anomalies in important role to play in property taxa-
the way it distributed the rate burden. As tion policy making.
a result, inequities had built up over the
years with the loss of a clear relationship Background
between tax bills and current market Through the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s,
values. there has been an intensive and extensive
Northern Ireland recently moved to a investigation into the fairest and most
capital value system, and the remainder equitable manner by which locally based
of the UK is considering a number of rating revenue can be raised (Hills and
options for reforming public finance. To Sutherland, 1991; Layfield Committee
assess the wider implications of a change 1976; Midwinter 1989; Ridge and Smith
in the domestic rating for Northern Ire- 1991; Smith and Squire 1987). The whole
land, we conducted a research study to question of domestic property rate re-
determine the likely redistributive effects form in Northern Ireland has to a large
William J. McCluskey, Ph.D.; Peader Davis; and Lay Cheng Lim, Ph.D., are on fac-
ulty at the Centre for Research in Property and Planning, School of the Built Environment at
University of Ulster in Northern Ireland.
Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3 59extent been overshadowed by events in replaces the current rental value system the rest of the United Kingdom. Neither with one based on capital values; at the the Community Charge nor the Coun- same time, all properties are being re- cil Tax has been imposed in Northern valued for the first time since 1976. As a Ireland. The so-called “Troubles” may result, there will be a significant redistri- have had a large part to play; however, bution of the rate burden, although the with the devolution of powers to a newly actual impact is likely to be cushioned formed Northern Ireland Assembly in by a transitional relief scheme (which 1998, the potential role of rates began to is outside the scope of our study). This take centre stage. (The Northern Ireland reform provides an unusually informa- Assembly was established as part of the tive opportunity to study the impact of Belfast Agreement [otherwise known as these changes on the residential prop- the Good Friday Agreement] on April 10, erty sector. 1998. The agreement set out the plan for Undertaking this type of redistributive devolved government including the cre- analysis is largely dependent upon hav- ation of the Assembly and Executive.) ing access to data of high quality and in The Programme for Government sufficient quantity. Earlier studies that 2001–04 (Northern Ireland Executive examined redistribution effects were, to 2001–2004) indicated the importance a large extent, constrained by the avail- of ensuring that local revenue is raised ability and quality of the data. Research in ways that are fair, taking into account conducted by Evans (1976) was based on the objectives of targeting social need and data from a 20 percent sample survey of promoting equality of opportunity. The sales reported to the Inland Revenue. then Minister of Finance and Personnel Evans found that, overall, 55 percent announced the Review of Rating Policy of dwellings would be entitled to a re- in March 2001 to evaluate the current sys- duction and 45 percent would have an tem and possible alternatives. The Review increase. Ford and Brown (1978) based of Rating Policy: A Consultation Paper was their results on a sample of 249 sales published in May 2002 (Northern Ireland (for the town of Woking). They found Executive 2002a). Despite the suspension that properties close to the city centre of the devolved administration in October would be beneficiaries, whereas proper- 2002, the review is seen as a central plat- ties in suburban areas would face rate form for delivering a fair and equitable increases. Wyatt (1982) found that an in- local rating system. Underpinning the crease in rates would shift from newer to review is the fact that the Reinvestment older properties, from smaller to larger and Reform Initiative for Northern Ire- properties, and from cheaper to more land allows the Executive to borrow funds expensive properties. He utilised a work- for infrastructure investment, with the able sample of 620 dwellings for the city loans being serviced by additional local of Derby. However, only asking prices, revenue, that is, local rates (Northern not actual selling prices, were available. Ireland Executive 2002b). (The Reinvest- Hattersley, Lizieri, and Chandler (1989) ment and Reform Initiative, announced studied 1,279 properties (for England on May 2, 2002, is aimed at addressing and Wales) drawn from the Department the long-standing problems in the ma- of the Environment/Building Societies jor public services of health, education, Association’s 5 percent Survey of Build- roads, water, and sewerage.) ing Society Mortgages for a single month The primary aim of Domestic Rating (June 1987). They found that 52 percent Reform is to achieve a balance between of dwellings would have a reduced rating economic efficiency (those who benefit liability and 48 percent would have an from services, pay) and fairness or equity increase. In addition, they found that (those who pay, can pay). The reform higher-priced dwellings would carry a 60 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
higher rate burden under a capital value The Pre-reform Domestic Rating
system and that lower-priced properties System
would have their rate burden reduced. The domestic rating system in Northern
In our study, we analysed the effects Ireland has remained virtually un-
of the rating changes on a sample of changed since its statutory inception in
46,407 sold properties. Utilising GIS, 1852. The basis of rating is an assessment
we generated maps that showed the of the hypothetical Net Annual Value for
distributional impact of a shift in tax each rateable property; the rate liability
bills from the current NAV system to the is simply calculated by applying a rate
alternative of a capital value system. We in the pound to the assessed NAV. Net
studied the relationship of tax incidence annual value is defined as follows:
to a measure of ability to pay at a ward
level (the spatial units used to elect local …the rent for which, one year with
government councillors). The measure, another, the hereditament might, in its
income deprivation, was compiled by the actual state, be reasonably expected to let
Social Disadvantage Research Centre from year to year, the probable average an-
(SDRC 2001) and is one of the accepted nual cost of repairs, insurance and other
benchmarks for assessing deprivation expenses (if any) necessary to maintain
for Northern Ireland policy makers. the hereditament in its actual state, and
This measure allowed us to compare the all rates, taxes or public charges (if any),
redistributive results with levels of depri- being paid by the tenant. (Schedule 12
vation in order to determine whether the Part 1 of the Rates [Northern Ireland]
reform is improving or worsening ability Order 1977)
to pay at the ward level.
The next section discusses the current In the mid-nineteenth and early
rating system and the basic policy op- twentieth centuries, the predominant
tions available. The data and methods tenurial form was based on the rent-
used in analysing these options are then ing of property. As figure 1 illustrates,
outlined, and the redistributive impact there has been a significant structural
of the reform is examined. The main change in the residential market with a
findings are drawn together in the final marked decline in the rental sector in
section. comparison to the growth in levels of
owner occupation.
Figure 1. Structure of the residential property market in Northern Ireland by tenure type
Source: Northern Ireland Housing Statistics
Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3 61The future shape of the domestic rat- which has extremely limited international
ing system therefore must recognise the usage, a discrete value approach has
availability of market evidence. In this widespread application (Bird and Slack
regard, the continued use of a rental- 2004; McCluskey, Lim, and Davis 2004;
value-based approach would be difficult McCluskey, Plimmer, and Connellan
to sustain simply on the basis of avail- 1999). Furthermore, research carried
ability of sufficient transaction evidence out in each of the three Great Britain
(Layfield Committee 1976; McCluskey, jurisdictions indicates that the current
Plimmer, and Connellan 1998; Wyatt Council Tax system is highly regressive
1983). The Reform of Rating Policy (Convention of Scottish Local Authori-
consultation document (Northern Ire- ties 2001; Giles and Ridge 1993; Institute
land Executive 2002b) indicated that to of Revenues, Rating and Valuation 1999;
retain a local rating system, the primary Kenway and Palmer 1999; Longley, Higgs,
option would be a capital-value-based and Martin 1996; Plimmer 1999; Plimmer,
approach. The arguments in support McCluskey, and Connellan 1999; Welsh
of capital value rating are persuasive; Assembly Government 2002). Whilst
for example, substantial information is more progressive banding approaches
available to valuers on open market sell- could be used, evidence suggests that a
ing prices. In addition, there would be discrete value approach is likely to pro-
greater transparency because ratepayers duce optimum property tax performance
would have a better understanding of the in terms of vertical and horizontal equity
rationale behind assessed values. and ability to pay (Davis, McCluskey, and
The shift to a capital value solution Lim 2004).
for Northern Ireland has, in essence,
two aspects: (1) whether to implement a Data Sources and Database
property-value-banded system, as used in Construction
the rest of the UK, or (2) whether to in-
The property sales data supplied by the
troduce a discrete capital value approach.
Valuation and Lands Agency (VLA)
This leads on to an interesting question
covered a five-year period from 1998 to
for local governments in the remainder
2002. For quality control, we excluded
of the UK: Should they retain a banded
from these data first-time sales from de-
system or move to a discrete system, if they
velopers, sales from the public sector to
indeed opt to retain a property tax? The
tenants under the “right to buy” scheme,
recently concluded Lyons Inquiry into
agricultural dwellings whose selling price
Local Government (2007) conducted a
included agricultural land, and any cases
wide-ranging investigation into these mat-
which evidenced data entry problems.
ters. The result was a recommendation
The data were further cleaned by remov-
that the Council Tax be retained in the
ing properties with obvious data errors
short term and revalued in the medium
and blank fields. The total number of
term, with an option of reform to discrete
usable sales for all 26 district councils
values in the long term.
was 46,407, or approximately 7 percent
Under a discrete capital value system,
of the total dwelling stock.
each individual property is given an as-
Given that data over a five-year period
sessed capital value. A banded capital
were used, it was necessary to adjust sell-
value system, as used in the rest of the
ing prices to a common valuation date,
UK, categorises property by reference to
that is, April 1, 1999. Applying this com-
a value band. In essence, a broad estimate
mon valuation date allowed for a more
of a property’s capital value is made, and
objective cross comparison between the
then it is allocated to the appropriate
various district councils. A time-adjusted
band (McCluskey, Plimmer, and Connel-
sales price (TASP) was calculated by us-
lan 2002). In contrast to value banding,
62 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3ing a regression-based technique that Results and Discussion calculates the monthly growth rate im- Hot-spot Analysis—Redistributive plied by the data. An implied monthly Effect at District Council Level growth rate index was calculated for each Any changes in a system of taxation are district council. These indexes were then likely to have an impact upon those upon used to adjust each sale price to reflect whom the tax is levied. A change in the its assumed value at the common date. way liability is assessed is likely to have an Whilst the market for each property type uneven effect: the creation of “winners,” or each area within a district council taxpayers whose levies are less under the may not have performed equally over new system, and ”losers,” taxpayers whose the period, this methodology gives the levies are more. In terms of tax proposals, most accurate estimate of house prices this result requires analysis of the ability on a common date. The approach is well to pay. Internationally, property value is documented (Gloudemans 1999) and taken to be an acceptable proxy for the is accepted for adjusting sales price and ability to pay a property tax, but this is value through time. by no means universally accepted and is The selling price for each dwelling certainly not enshrined as such in the UK has been used as a proxy for the assessed context. Nonetheless, there is generally a value under a capital value rating system positive relationship between an individu- (Hattersley, Lizieri, Chandler 1989). al’s ability to own and/or occupy property There may be cases in which the sell- and his or her wealth. Thus there is at ing price may not be an accurate and least a loose relationship between the objective proxy for assessed value, for value of property and the ability to pay a example, a special purchaser or sales to tax levied upon that value. In these terms, connected parties. However, in the ma- ability to pay is linked to the concept of a jority of cases, it is reasonable to assume proportional, or progressive, tax system. that normal market forces and buyer and Thus, a proportional, or progressive, tax seller behaviour occurred and thus de- system also achieves a positive outcome in termined the open-market selling prices. terms of ability to pay under that system, The research aggregates the data to the at least to some extent. To determine the ward level, which gives a fairly robust relative merit of rating reform in terms picture of average capital values. of ability to pay, we analysed the data From the TASPs calculated for each delineated by ward in terms of the ward property, we calculated the new tax bills average income deprivation measure under the capital value system. The (SDRC 2001) and aggregated for analysis calculation assumed a revenue-neutral and display purposes. position based on the current revenue Each district council was considered raised by the sample. These tax bills separately in terms of the actual redis- were then compared with the tax bills tributive effect. Table 1 shows the overall generated under the old system to results at the district council level in analyse the likely redistributive effects terms of winners (those with lower li- of the change in the basis of domestic abilities, a ratio of less than 1.0) and rating. The results of the individual-level losers (those with higher liabilities, a analysis were aggregated to the ward ratio greater than 1.0). In overall terms, level to allow meaningful analysis of the a change to discrete capital value rating effects. Whilst ward-level analysis can would result in approximately 61 percent give only a broad indication of effects, it of all ratepayers (within the sample) be- nonetheless illustrates broad trends and ing entitled to reduced rate liability. This identifies notable “hot spots” of change, percentage would vary by district coun- which would present policy makers with cil, the largest percentage of winners particular challenges. being in Armagh (70 percent), Ards (67 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3 63
percent), and North Down (66 percent), the effects within the Belfast City area,
and the largest percentage of losers the capital of Northern Ireland. This
being in Newtownabbey (46 percent), analysis is useful because Belfast has
Moyle (45 percent), Larne (45 percent), both large concentrations of high-value
and Ballymoney (44 percent). properties and areas of high deprivation.
Figures 2, 3, and 4 provide a Northern Of the 51 Belfast wards, 35 would on aver-
Ireland overview of the main hot spots age experience a fall in rate liability and
in terms of rate liability shifts. For ex- 16 would experience an increase. Those
ample, in the Armagh district council, wards with the largest increases would be
70 percent of all property owners would Ballynafeigh, Botanic, Malone, Stranmil-
receive reductions, whereas in Larne 55 lis, and Windsor (all amongst the most
percent would receive reductions and in prosperous wards in Northern Ireland).
Belfast, 61 percent. As figure 5 shows, the following wards
would experience the largest reductions:
Hot-spot Analysis—Redistributive Ardoyne, Ballysillan, Crumlin, Duncairn,
Effect for Belfast Urban Area Glencairn, Highfield, Legoniel, and
Having looked at the redistributive ef- Shankill (all amongst the most deprived
fects of changing to a capital value system wards in Northern Ireland).
on a Northern Ireland-wide scale, we Figure 6 depicts, on a ward basis, the
drilled down to examine more closely level of income deprivation compared
Table 1. Redistributive effect of capital value system at the district council level
Ratio of Liability
Winners (Less than 1.0) Losers (Greater than 1.0)
District Council Number Percentage Number Percentage
Antrium 787 61 496 39
Ards 1,660 67 838 33
Armagh 616 70 267 30
Ballymena 987 57 736 43
Ballymoney 316 56 250 44
Banbridge 760 64 436 36
Belfast 4,578 61 2,988 39
Carrickfergus 935 60 624 40
Castlereagh 1,541 60 1,028 40
Coleraine 1,378 62 851 38
Cookstown 323 62 204 38
Craigavon 1,376 59 947 41
Derry 875 57 662 43
Down 1,075 62 659 38
Dungannon 495 62 301 38
Fermanagh 651 63 381 37
Larne 654 55 548 45
Limavady 490 58 357 42
Lisburn 2,647 63 1,552 37
Magherafelt 407 62 255 38
Moyle 202 55 169 45
Newry 810 57 602 43
Newtownabbey 1,591 54 1,363 46
North Down 2,368 66 1,226 34
Omagh 363 61 231 39
Strabane 319 58 232 42
Total 28,204 61 18,203 39
64 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3Figure 2. Overall rate liability change at the ward level in Northern Ireland due to capital value system Figure 3. Rate liability increases of greater than 30 percent due to capital value system by ward in Northern Ireland Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3 65
Figure 4. Rate liability decreases of more than 20 percent due to capital value system by ward in Northern Ireland Figure 5. Rate liability decreases of more than 20 percent in Belfast urban area due to capital value system 66 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
with the percentage rate change. The revaluation, allowing considerable shifts
largest gainers would be households in in relative property values between dif-
the more deprived areas, whilst house- ferent geographic areas. It is essential
holds in the less deprived areas would to be able to identify and measure the
either gain less or indeed lose. In addi- localized effects of policy changes un-
tion, higher-priced dwellings would carry der such circumstances. Successful tax
a higher rate burden, whilst lower-priced reform depends upon public acquies-
properties would have their rate burden cence, which can be jeopardized if the
reduced. Analysis on a Northern Ireland- extreme effects of policy are not identi-
wide basis showed that this pattern was fied early and planned for appropriately.
generally consistent, with some notable The spatial dimension of tax incidence
exceptions where the makeup of a ward is fundamentally important in answering
included disparate elements of very high such questions as: Where will the difficul-
property values alongside, yet geographi- ties arise? Where is this policy weak? And
cally separate from, pockets of extreme perhaps, where is it strong?
deprivation. Note that this analysis mea- A number of important findings from
sured change from the previous rating our study illustrate the likely redistribu-
system, which already reflected these tive effects of a move to a capital value
factors to a greater or lesser extent. rating system. Firstly, introducing a sys-
tem of discrete capital values will result in
Conclusions a greater number of winners—taxpayers
The analysis reported in this paper used with reduced rate bills. Secondly, whilst
GIS to identify the spatial redistribu- lower-valued dwellings will tend to have
tion of property tax bills following a reduced liabilities, the most expensive
revaluation and change in the tax base. properties will experience an increase.
A long period had elapsed since the last Thirdly, from a spatial perspective, a
Figure 6. Percentage tax change in Belfast wards due to capital value system by income
deprivation measures (IDM)
Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3 67general pattern of redistribution was capital value approach appears to be both identified in which several inner-city methodologically simpler and fairer than wards and a number of suburban wards the banded approach, as well as more will experience increased rate liabilities. appropriate and feasible than the rental Detailed investigation at the property value approach. Given a similar degree of level indicated that a considerable reas- administrative feasibility, we suggest the signment of property values will take discrete approach that has been adopted place and result in major changes in tax is the approach best suited to the needs bills for individual properties, generally of the Northern Ireland jurisdiction for following the pattern just described. the foreseeable future. We would be In terms of an appropriate system overstating our findings if we suggested for Northern Ireland, whilst the dis- the introduction of a discrete capital crete capital value system that has been value system into the rest of the United introduced does not provide a total Kingdom, particularly given the highly local taxation solution, it does provide political nature of property taxation and a feasible alternative to the previous the necessity of public support for re- system and a better performance than form. Rather, the likelihood is that such a banded alternative in terms of ability an introduction would produce a similar to pay. Examination of the mapping of profile of outcomes, that is, redistribution the change to a discrete system indicated of the tax burden under a proportional that although most wards will witness system, creating a far less regressive tax limited change, there are localised hot and redistributing tax burden toward spots of large increases and decreases in more valuable properties in particular rate burden, particularly in the Belfast and more affluent areas in general. urban area. Liability increases raise the We have shown that the impacts of the issue of affordability; while for liability tax reform changes are fairly propor- decreases, the issue is local revenue- tional, although some deprived areas will raising potential. There may be wider gain less than the average. Nevertheless, implications for the funding of local in the switch to a capital value system, al- and regional government in Northern though many higher-value properties will Ireland—implications that will need no doubt simply see themselves as losing, to be addressed alongside the ongoing three-fifths of the households in Northern Review of Public Administration pro- Ireland will be winners. Our research and gramme. Other issues are those linked findings have strategic importance from to any system of taxation based upon a number of perspectives, not the least capital values, particularly the “asset rich, of which is the contribution to inform- income poor” issue. All these issues are ing the policy debate surrounding the likely to afflict any capital value system, reform of the domestic rating system for but are perhaps more pronounced in a Northern Ireland and other jurisdictions. discrete approach. More directly, our findings demonstrate The technological and data issues the need for jurisdictions considering facing this and other UK jurisdictions reform to carry out impact analyses to in- in introducing a discrete, capital value form, guide, and defend policy decisions. property tax system are surmountable, Clearly, other areas of research require by using a combination of proven tech- more detailed investigation, such as the niques and innovative approaches, and effect of the new system on low-income provide opportunities for cost-effective households, on areas of high depriva- periodic revaluation. For the remain- tion, and, ultimately, on the ability to ing issues, the answer would appear to pay. These areas are part of our ongoing be a well-balanced basket of reliefs and research, and we hope they will further deferments. Nevertheless, the discrete inform the decision-making process. 68 Journal of Property Tax Assessment & Administration • Volume 4, Issue 3
Acknowledgments Hills, J., and H. Sutherland. 1991. The
The authors thank the Valuation and proposed Council Tax. Fiscal Studies 12
Lands Agency for assistance in supply- (4): 1–21.
ing the data for the empirical work and Institute of Revenues, Rating and Valua-
for valuable comments on early drafts tion (IRRV). 1999. Council Tax collection
of this paper. arrangements in Scotland and England &
Wales. Edinburgh: Institute of Revenues,
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