Regional Skills Assessment Aberdeen City and Shire March 2022
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Regional Skills Assessment Aberdeen City and Shire March 2022
Contents
Introduction
The Context of Scotland’s Labour Market …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….5
Regional Economy
The Regional Economy: At a glance …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..7
The Aberdeen City and Shire Economy …………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………………..8
Regional Labour Market
Employment: Employment in Aberdeen City and Shire …………………………………………………………………………………………………….12
Other Labour Market Indicators: Current Job Postings ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..22
Impact of COVID-19: At a glance …………………………………………………….………………………….……………………………………………23
The impact of COVID-19 in Aberdeen City and Shire ……………………………………………………………………………………….……………...24
Regional Requirement
Future Demand for Skills ………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………….29
Future Demand for Skills – Job Openings in the mid-term (2021-2024) …………………………………………………………………………………30
Future Demand for Skills – Job Openings in the long-term (2024-2031) ………………………………………………………………………….……..33
March Spotlight: Skills Shortages, Gaps and Challenges
Scottish Employer Skills Survey (2020).………………………………………………………...……………………………………………………………37
Regional Insight…….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….42
References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………44Regional Skills Assessments
First launched in 2014, the Regional Skills RSAs also include forecast data that has been The RSA Data Matrix supplements this report and data
Assessments (RSAs) provide a robust evidence base commissioned through Oxford Economics. Caveats need on SDS products and services can be accessed from
to support partners in strategic skills investment to be applied when using forecast data. The Technical Publications and Statistics section on our corporate
planning. They have evolved over time based on an Note1 provides full detail on this, but broadly it should be website.
independent review carried out in 2015 and continuous noted that forecasts are based on what we know now and
feedback from partners. include past and present trends projected into the future. Finally, in the sections which follow, the numbers and
Their value is in identifying likely directions of travel rather figures in the body of the text are rounded for ease of
To ensure an inclusive approach to their development, than predicting exact figures. The more disaggregated reference and readability and therefore may differ
dissemination and utilisation, RSAs are produced by they become, especially at smaller geographical units, the slightly from other publications.
Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with less reliable they are likely to be. Standard occupational
Aberdeen City and Shire Enterprise, Scottish classifications (SOC) and standard industrial This RSA report is for Aberdeen City and Shire, which
Enterprise, Scottish Government, the Scottish Funding classifications (SIC) are used to define occupations and covers the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire local
Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities industries. authorities.
Economic Development Group.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have useful SIC2
In this March release we report on strategic drivers, the and SOC3 hierarchy tools that can be used to understand
economy, the impact of COVID-19, labour market the classifications in more detail.
requirement, supply of people and an update on SDS
regional action. Our March spotlight feature is on the In addition, we provide analysis by Key Sector. Key
Scottish Employer Skills Survey. Sectors are central to our Skills Investment Planning
approach. Each Key Sector has a tailored Skills
RSAs include the use of published data sets. Investment Plan (SIP) which gives a picture of the
Inevitably, when using published data there is a economic and labour market situation, trends in skills and
time lag but the data contained is the most up to date qualification supply and employers’ perspectives on the
available at the time of writing. In response to COVID- skills issues affecting the sector. Regional SIPs have also
19 we include more data derived from administrative been developed. SIPs and RSIPs are available on the
sources where possible as time lags with this data are, SDS website.4 Sector Skills Assessments are also
in general, shorter. However, we still rely mostly on available which provide updated Labour Market Insight for
data from the core labour market surveys. the Key Sectors.Introduction
The Context for Scotland’s Labour Market
COVID-19 has hit Scotland’s economy hard, exacerbating a number of pre-existing issues and challenges. In addition to the drivers listed here, the emergence of complex
challenges such as labour shortages, supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures could impact Scotland’s future course.51Global security issues heightened by the conflict
in Ukraine have the potential to cause further disruption, in particular to energy markets and costs. The development of fit-for-purpose skills has an important role in supporting
continued economic recovery and inclusive growth. An effective skills system helps support and attract inward investment, increase productivity and tackle inequality and
deprivation.6
The Economy and Demographic Equality and Automation Climate Change
Productivity Change Inclusive Growth
The Scottish Government’s focus Advances in technological The Scottish Government has set
At the time of writing, the Scottish As with many economies in the
on Fair Work remains, supporting developments continue unabated 2045 as the target for achieving a
Fiscal Commission (SFC) forecast developed world, Scotland’s
‘growth that combines increases in and these are changing the world net zero carbon economy. The
that Scotland's economy will grow population is ageing. By 2045, the
prosperity with greater equity, of work. In Scotland around 46% 2021 Energy Position Statement14
by 2.4% in 2022-23. The SFC also number of people of pensionable
creates opportunities for all and of jobs have high potential for ahead of COP26 cemented
suggest that longer-term scarring age in Scotland is expected to
distributes the dividends of automation, some 1.2m jobs.13 Scottish Government priorities.
to the economy from the pandemic increase by 20.6% (205,800
increased prosperity fairly’.11 Many jobs are expected to evolve The labour market will be affected
could mean that trend GDP at the people), whilst the working-age
rather than disappear, for example by changes to climate change
start of 2025 is forecast to remain population is projected to decline
COVID-19 has had an uneven skilled machine operatives rather legislation and consumer
2% lower than their pre-pandemic by 2.4% (84,400 people). This
impact on some groups in society than manual labour. behaviours as the economy
forecast.7 suggests the possibility for a
including young people, older moves towards greater
tighter labour market in future and
workers, women, disabled people, There will also be the creation of sustainability.
Measuring productivity during the an increasing dependency ratio.9
ethnic minority groups, low paid new high-quality jobs and
pandemic has been challenging, opportunities for more flexible ‘Green jobs’ are central to the
Based on population projections, and low income households.12
but at a high level, variance in working, expedited by the government’s plans for recovery.
productivity performance is Aberdeen City and Shire’s
pandemic. Demand for green jobs (and green
expected across sectors, and in dependency ratio will be 56%,
skills) is expected to increase
turn regions.8 compared to Scotland’s 60%.10
rapidly as a result of policy and
legislative drivers and consumer
choice. The region is well placed
to benefit from these opportunities.
Brexit
Prior to the pandemic, Brexit was a key source of uncertainty, and this created downwards pressure across productivity, business investment, retail sales and trade. The number of EU
workers in Scotland declined due to reduced in-migration and/or increased return migration. Ongoing Brexit concerns, and COVID-19 considerations, create heightened uncertainty
regarding the supply of migrant labour from the EU and further afield. 15 The region is slightly more exposed to reductions in EU exports, when compared to Scotland as a whole. In 2019,
EU citizens were 8% of all employees, compared to 6% for Scotland as a whole. 16Regional Economy17
The Regional Economy: At a glance
Gross Value Added (GVA) Wellbeing Economy
Total Aberdeen City and Shire GVA 2021:
£16,629m and 11 .3% of total Scottish output The pandemic has had a profound negative impact on Scotland’s wellbeing,
particularly in terms of health, the economy and fair work. This has brought further
From 2009-2019, GVA in Aberdeen City and Shire: impacts on already marginalised communities, further exacerbating inequalities.
increased by 12.9% or £2,010m
Existing inequalities face potential challenges as new forms of disadvantage may
Mid-term forecast average annual growth (2021-2024): emerge. For example, increasing reliance on technology, accelerated by the
Aberdeen City and Shire: 2.9% pandemic, may bring new opportunities as well as risks of excluding certain groups
Scotland: 3.0% where technology is not as accessible.
United Kingdom: 3.3%
Establishing a wellbeing economy18 remains a top priority for the Scottish
Longer-term forecast average annual growth (2024-2031): Government. This involves creating an inclusive and sustainable economy whilst
Aberdeen City and Shire: 0.8% also promoting prosperity and resilience. Wellbeing is a key aspect of the Scottish
Scotland: 1.3% Government’s 2021-22 Programme for Government.19 Scotland is a founding
United Kingdom: 1.5% member of the Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo), where members
collaborate to utilise expert advice on delivering a wellbeing economy. Previous
discussions included sustainable tourism, inclusive growth, child poverty and
Productivity wellbeing budgeting.20
Aberdeen City and Shire productivity 2021: The Scottish Government’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET)
£55,800, in Scotland it was £53,000 sets out ambitions for Scotland to become Fairer, Wealthier and Greener, with
people at the heart of a wellbeing economy.21
Mid-term forecast productivity (2024):
Aberdeen City and Shire: £59,100 In the RSA we, as of yet, do not include any measures of the wellbeing economy
Scotland: £55,700 alongside the traditional monetary measures of economic performance. This is an
area of development, and a number of other resources are available to support
Long-term forecast productivity (2031): partners and stakeholders with this policy area:
Aberdeen City and Shire: £64,000 • Wellbeing Economy Alliance
Scotland: £60,300 • Scotland's Centre for Regional Inclusive GrowthThe Aberdeen City and Shire Economy
Economic output Past Economic Performance
Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an
area and is an indicator of the economy’s health.
Prior to the pandemic, the region’s economic growth rate was lower
GVA is not an all-encompassing measure, it simply tells us about economic output.
than Scotland’s. On average Aberdeen City and Shire’s economy
Beyond the economic measures, the aim of achieving inclusive economic growth is a
grew by 1.3 per cent each year (2009-2019).
priority for Scotland as noted in a speech by the First Minister to the Wellbeing Economy
Alliance: “Scotland is redefining what it means to be a successful nation by focusing on the
broader wellbeing of the population as well as the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the
country.“ 22 From 2019 to 2020, the region’s economy contracted sharply as
measures were taken across the UK to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Current Economic Performance
In 2021, GVA was forecast to be £16,629m in Aberdeen City and Shire, 11.3 per cent of
Scotland’s output (£146,920m).
The contraction of economic output in Aberdeen City and Shire was
This share of GVA ranks Aberdeen City and Shire in the top third of RSA regions for GVA estimated to be 11.6 per cent between 2019 and 2020, which was
contribution to the Scottish economy. The highest value sectors in the regional economy greater than what occurred across Scotland.
were forecast to be:
Manufacturing:
£2,031m The pandemic had a substantial impact on the economy, with UK
GVA falling by 9.7 per cent in 2020..
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities:
£2,003m
Real Estate Activities:
£1,674m
*The GVA output from the Real Estate sector is however inflated by owner-occupier imputed rent. Imputed rent
captures, economically, the value of the service homeowners are providing to themselves by owning and living in
their own home.Future Economic Performance
Whilst it is possible to forecast what could happen, Figure 1: Forecast average annual GVA change by Industry (%) (2021-2031), Aberdeen City and Shire
there are a multitude of factors that can influence what
materialises. The greatest contributing factor to a
region’s economic performance will be their sectoral
footprint, however other place-based factors will also Accommodation and food service activities 3.9%
have an influence. Other service activities 3.4%
In the mid-term it is forecast that Scottish GVA will Administrative and support service activities 3.0%
return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with growth of Information and communication 2.7%
8.2 per cent in 2021 and 5.4 per cent in 2022. Overall,
GVA growth in Scotland is forecast to average 1.8 per Arts, entertainment and recreation 2.4%
cent per year between 2021 and 2031, 0.2 percentage Real estate activities 1.8%
points slower than the UK average.
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.8%
Between 2021 and 2031, the largest contributions to Transportation and storage 1.8%
growth across Scotland will come from Human Health
and Social Work (adding close to 0.1 percentage Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.6%
points per year to overall GVA growth in Scotland) and Construction 1.6%
Real Estate Activities (just over 0.1 percentage
points). This reflects the size of these sectors as well Manufacturing 1.4%
as levels of growth. Education 1.3%
As shown in Figure 1, Accommodation and Food Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and… 1.2%
service activities is forecast to have the largest annual Human health and social work activities 1.1%
GVA growth in Aberdeen City and Shire from 2021-
2031, at 3.9 per cent. It is followed by Other service Financial and insurance activities 0.9%
activities (3.4 per cent) and Administrative and Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation… 0.9%
Support Services (3.0 per cent).
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.8%
Data for absolute change is available in the RSA Data Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 0.3%
Matrix.
Mining and quarrying -1.8%Productivity Current Productivity Mid-Term Productivity Long-Term Productivity
Productivity is the measure of goods and services produced per unit of Based on forecasts as of October Based on forecasts as of October Based on forecasts as of October
labour input. COVID-19 has impacted on productivity across the UK in 2021, productivity in Aberdeen 2021, productivity in the region in 2021, productivity in the region in
several ways and it has created new challenges in how productivity is City and Shire was forecast to be the mid-term (2021-2024) is the long-term (2024-2031) is
accurately measured. The Office for National Statistics (ONS)23 £55,800. This was above the expected to grow by 1.9 per cent expected to grow by 1.2 per cent
highlight that measures based on output per job or worker are average for Scotland of £53,000. on average each year. on average each year. At a high-
expected to experience large declines, whereas falls in output per level, variance in productivity
hour could be less pronounced. The region’s productivity is This is more than the forecast performance is anticipated across
largely driven by the sectoral mix Scottish growth rate (1.7 per cent) regions due to their sectoral mix
Interventions like the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), that makes up its economy. over the same period. and place-based factors.
which ended on 30th September 2021, impacted on the underpinning
data. Under this scheme individuals on furlough were categorised as
being employed but working no hours. If a worker or jobs-based
productivity measure is used, the input (one worker or job) remains the Figure 2: Productivity (2021)
same but output declines as no work was taking place. Whereas if
hours worked was used both input and output would decline. This £62,700
demonstrates the possible divergences observed in productivity £57,200 £55,800
measures over the past two years. £53,200 £53,200
£51,500 £51,000 £50,600 £50,500 £50,300
£49,700
£47,800 £47,300 £46,900
£46,000
Caution is needed when interpreting the productivity data presented
and it must be considered in the context of other data and insight.
Despite the challenges, it remains advisable to report on productivity
as it is a measure that can help us to understand regional variances
and challenges.
The Oxford Economics forecasts of productivity shown here have
been calculated by dividing total regional GVA by total regional
employment (measured by jobs). We use this data as it provides a
forecast figure to help estimate the impact the pandemic has had on
productivity and longer-term trajectories post-pandemic. An equivalent
Lanarkshire
West Region
Forth Valley
Tayside
Aberdeen City
Fife
Highlands and
Edinburgh, East
West Lothian
Dumfries and
Scottish Borders
Ayrshire
Rural Scotland
Glasgow College
South of Scotland
and Midlothians
based on hours worked is not available.
Galloway
and Shire
Islands
RegionRegional Labour Market24 • Employment • Wider Labour Market Indicators
Employment: Employment in Aberdeen City and Shire
Current Employment Across Scotland, and within the region, more people Figure 3: Employment in Scotland by region (2021) (people)
Total employment in Aberdeen City and Shire worked full-time than part-time, 214,200 people (75.7
(measured by people) was estimated to be 283,000 in per cent) were in full-time jobs in Aberdeen City and
2021, 10.9 per cent of Scottish employment. Shire in 2021. This was a higher percentage share Rural Scotland 700,500
compared to Scotland where 74.2 per cent of people
According to the Annual Population Survey, between were in full-time employment. Glasgow College Region 514,300
October 2020 and September 2021, the employment Edinburgh, East and
rate for the working age population (aged 16-64) in the Part-time employment accounted for a lower Midlothians
407,700
region was 76.0 per cent, which was above the rate for percentage share of employment in the region
Scotland (72.9 per cent).25 compared to Scotland, 24.3 per cent compared to 25.8 Aberdeen City and Shire 283,000
per cent. Overall, there were 68,800 people in part-time
The region’s overall employment rate means that employment in Aberdeen City and Shire. Lanarkshire 260,500
approximately one in four of the region’s working age
population were unemployed (4.8 per cent) or Highlands and Islands 233,400
economically inactive (20.1 per cent). Inactivity
includes people who are studying, retired or looking Tayside 193,500
after their family or home.26
West Region 164,500
Fife 145,600
Ayrshire 138,800
Forth Valley 119,000
South of Scotland 114,200
West Lothian 79,800
Dumfries and Galloway 62,200
Scottish Borders 52,000
Note: data will not sum to 100% as unemployment rate is
based only on economically active populationIn Aberdeen City and Shire the largest employing Figure 4: Employment by Industry and share of total employment (2021), Aberdeen City and Shire
sectors, and their estimated regional share of
employment, in 2021 were (see Figure 4): Human health activities 28,200, 10.0%
Architectural and engineering 25,500, 9.0%
Human Health Activities:
Education 20,300, 7.2%
10.0 per cent
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles 20,000, 7.1%
Mining support service activities 13,300, 4.7%
Architectural and Engineering: Extraction of crude petroleum 12,600, 4.4%
9.0 per cent
Public administration and defence 12,200, 4.3%
Food and beverage service activities 11,400, 4.0%
Education: Specialised construction activities 9,600, 3.4%
7.2 per cent Social work activities 8,700, 3.1%
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles 7,200, 2.5%
Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles: Residential care activities 6,200, 2.2%
7.1 per cent Manufacture of food products 5,500, 2.0%
Accommodation 5,400, 1.9%
Land transport and transport 5,200, 1.8%
Mining Support Service Activities:
4.7 per cent Services to buildings and landscape 5,000, 1.8%
Construction of buildings 4,800, 1.7%
Legal and accounting activities 4,700, 1.7%
Activities of head offices 4,500, 1.6%
Sports activities and amusement 4,200, 1.5%Of the key sectors, Health and Social Care, was Figure 5: Employment by Key Sector and share of total employment, Aberdeen City and Shire (2021)
estimated to be the largest in Aberdeen City and Shire
in 2021. The sector accounted for 43,000 people.
Energy was the second largest with a total of 38,500
people (see Figure 5). Health and social care 43,000, 15.2%
Large sectors are an important source of jobs. Energy 38,500, 13.6%
However, regions also have sectoral strengths that
make them unique. This means that smaller sectors
can be more important than their size suggests, as Engineering 37,300, 13.2%
they are more concentrated in the region compared to
the national average. Construction 31,400, 11.1%
In Aberdeen City and Shire, Mining support service
Financial and business services 20,700, 7.3%
activities was the greatest specialism, with the
percentage of employment in this sector nearly 5 times
the Scottish average. Other sectors that had above Tourism 16,000, 5.6%
average concentrations in Aberdeen City and Shire
included: Food and drink 11,500, 4.0%
• Extraction of crude petroleum (4.8 times as
concentrated),
• Architectural and engineering (3.8 times as Creative industries 6,400, 2.3%
concentrated),
• Fishing and aquaculture (2.8 times as concentrated) ICT/digital 3,900, 1.4%
and
• Repair and installation of machinery (2.8 times as
Child-day care activities 2,900, 1.0%
concentrated).
Life sciences 800, 0.3%
Chemical sciences 400, 0.2%Sectors tell us about the industries that people work in, Figure 6: Employment by Occupation and share of total employment, Aberdeen City and Shire (2021)
and occupations provide insight on the type of jobs
people do. In 2021, 139,300 employed people (49.2
per cent) in Aberdeen City and Shire were in ‘higher Science and Technology Professionals 26,900, 9.5%
level’ occupations, 29.8 per cent were in ‘mid-level’
occupations and 21.0 per cent were in ‘lower level’
occupations. The occupational structure of Aberdeen Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services
25,900, 9.1%
City and Shire was different to Scotland. Compared to related
Scotland, the region had a higher percentage of the
workforce in higher level occupations and a higher Administrative Occupations 23,800, 8.4%
percentage of the workforce in mid-level
occupations. Scotland had a higher percentage of the
workforce in lower-level occupations. Business and Public Service Associate
23,800, 8.4%
Professionals
A detailed look at the occupational structure shows that Corporate Managers 23,700, 8.4%
the largest occupations in the region in 2021 were
estimated to be (see Figure 6):
Caring Personal Service Occupations 21,200, 7.5%
Science and Technology Professionals: 9.5 per
cent
Health Professionals 15,500, 5.5%
Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services
related: 9.1 per cent
Business and Public Service Professionals 14,700, 5.2%
Administrative Occupations: 8.4 per cent
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades 13,600, 4.8%
Business and Public Service Associate
Professionals: 8.4 per cent
Sales Occupations 10,500, 3.7%
Corporate Managers: 8.4 per centPast Employment Combining the change from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to However, growth is forecast to have occurred in sectors
Pre-COVID-19, employment in the region had 2021, employment declines were observed in 11 of the 19 that had increased demand as a result of the pandemic.
increased by 8.2 per cent from 2009 to 2019. There industry sectors in Aberdeen City and Shire (see Figure 7). The number of people estimated to be working in the
were 22,300 more people in employment in 2019 There were substantial job losses in Accommodation and region’s Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
compared to 2009. The percentage of growth within Food Services as employment declined by 4,000, which sector increased by 1,000 people and the Human Health
the region was more than the 5.9 per cent growth was a loss of 24.9 per cent of the sector’s workforce. and Social Work sector increased by 900.
observed across Scotland over the same time period.
The number of people in employment in Aberdeen City Figure 7: Employment change by Industry, Aberdeen City and Shire
and Shire was impacted by the pandemic. From 2019
to 2020 the number of people employed in the region Declining Sectors Employment change Employment change Employment change
was estimated to have declined by 9,800, from 2009-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
294,800 to 285,000. This was a decline of 3.3 per cent,
compared to a 1.2 per cent decline across Scotland.
Accommodation and Food Services 4,700 -3,300 -700
Employment contracted further across Scotland and in Wholesale and Retail Trade 1,900 -1,400 -1,100
the region from 2020 to 2021. These losses occurred
when income support schemes came to an end. A Mining and Quarrying 900 -2,100 -200
decrease of 1,900 people in work is estimated to have
occurred from 2020 to 2021 in Aberdeen City and Administrative and Support Services 3,900 -1,600 300
Shire, which is smaller than the contraction from 2019
to 2020. Overall, employment is estimated to have Manufacturing -1,700 -900 -300
declined by 11,800 from 2019 to 2021 in the region. Construction -2,100 -1,100 300
Public Administration and Defence 3,900 -1,600 300
Growth Sectors Employment change Employment change Employment change
2009-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021
Professional, Scientific and Technical 8,900 500 500
Human Health and Social Work 4,100 500 400
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -500 800 -100The employment forecast for the local authorities within Both local authorities are forecast to grow 0.8 per cent
Employment Forecast Aberdeen City and Shire shows a consistent outlook. on average each year over the mid-term.
In the mid-term (2021-2024) the number of people in Over the longer term, Aberdeenshire is forecast to
employment is forecast to grow by 6,800 in the region. contract by 0.5 per cent on average each year, and
Whilst positive, this growth does not fully replace jobs Aberdeen City by 0.3 per cent.
lost as a result of the pandemic.
For Scotland as a whole, it is forecast to be 2023 when Figure 8: Forecast Employment (2019-2031), Aberdeen City and Shire (people)
the number of people in employment reaches, and then
surpasses, 2019 employment levels. The region’s
employment recovery is forecast to be slower, with 2019
levels not forecast to be reached in the period up to 294,800
2031.
Over the longer term (2024-2031) employment within 289,800 289,800 289,700 289,200
the region is forecast to decrease. In 2031, it is forecast 287,800 288,200
287,400
that there will be 6,800 fewer people in employment
286,000
compared to 2024. Across Scotland the number of 285,000 284,500
people in employment is forecast to increase.
283,000 283,000
The level of employment contraction in the region
equates to an average annual rate of 0.3 per cent over
the longer term. For comparison, Scotland’s forecast
growth rate is 0.1 per cent.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031Although weak employment growth is forecast in the
mid-term in Aberdeen City and Shire, sectors will have Figure 9: Forecast Employment Change by Industry (2021-2024), Aberdeen City and Shire (people)
varying performance. The greatest employment growth
is forecast in Professional, Scientific and Technical
Professional, scientific and technical activities 2,300
Activities, with 2,300 more people expected to be
working in the sector by 2024 compared to 2021. Other Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and
1,200
motorcycles
sectors forecast to have growth over the mid-term
forecast period include Wholesale and Retail Trade Administrative and support service activities 1,100
(1,200 people), Administrative and Support Services Accommodation and food service activities 1,100
(1,100 people), Accommodation and Food Service
Activities (1,100 people), and Human Health and Social Human health and social work activities 900
Work Activities (900 people). Arts, entertainment and recreation 700
Not all sectors in the region are forecast to grow in the Transportation and storage 600
mid-term. Mining and Quarrying is the sector forecast to
Information and communication 400
have the greatest employment contraction from 2021 to
2024. During the forecast period a decline of 1,900 Construction 400
people in employment is anticipated. The Manufacturing
Other service activities 400
sector is forecast to have a decline of 300 people over
the same period of time. This reflects the general trend Real estate activities 100
of more capital intensive and higher value-added activity
in the sector, which requires less labour-intensive Education 100
methods (see Figure 9). Agriculture, forestry and fishing 100
Financial and insurance activities 0
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and
0
remediation activities
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0
Public administration and defence; compulsory social
-200
security
Manufacturing -300
Mining and quarrying -1,900Over the longer term, and similar to the mid-term,
sectors are expected to have varied outlooks. Figure 10: Forecast Employment Change by Industry (2024-2031), Aberdeen City and Shire (people)
Aberdeen City and Shire’s Professional, scientific and
technical activities sector is forecast to have the greatest Professional, scientific and technical activities 2,400
absolute growth. From 2024 to 2031 the number of Human health and social work activities 1,600
people employed in this sector is forecast to increase by
2,400. Other sectors forecast to have growth over the Administrative and support service activities 900
longer-term forecast period are Human Health and Arts, entertainment and recreation 400
Social Work Activities (1,600 people), Administrative
and Support Services (900 people), and Arts, Real estate activities 0
Entertainment and Recreation (400 people). Growth in
Construction 0
Human Health and Social Work Activities is driven by
Scotland’s ageing population, along with the aim to Other service activities 0
protect the provision of frontline services.
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and… 0
The mid-term contraction in the Manufacturing sector is Financial and insurance activities -100
forecast to continue over the longer term as the
adoption of new technologies and production methods Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply -100
continues and the sector produces more but with fewer Information and communication -100
workers. The sector with the greatest contraction is
forecast to be Mining and Quarrying (see Figure 10). Agriculture, forestry and fishing -200
Accommodation and food service activities -400
Education -500
Public administration and defence; compulsory social… -600
Transportation and storage -800
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and… -1,600
Manufacturing -3,200
Mining and quarrying
-4,600Similar to sectors, occupations have varying outlooks. In Figure 11: Forecast Employment Change by Occupation (2021-2024), Aberdeen City and Shire
the mid-term Corporate Managers is forecast to
experience the greatest employment increase in
Aberdeen City and Shire from 2021 to 2024 (of 1,100
workers). Growth in this occupation is closely related to Corporate Managers 1,100
the forecast rise in employment by sector. An additional Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services related 900
900 workers are expected to be required in Elementary Business and Public Service Associate Professionals 700
Occupations: Clerical and Services Related. Other
Caring Personal Service Occupations 600
occupations anticipated to have an increase that is
relatively large for the region include: Business and Public Service Professionals 600
Science and Technology Professionals 500
Business and Public Service Associate Health Professionals 500
Professionals: Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 400
700 people
Managers / Proprietors in agriculture and services 400
Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations 300
Caring Personal Service Occupations:
600 people Skilled Construction and Building Trades 300
Skilled Agricultural Trades 200
Business and Public Service Professionals: Administrative Occupations 200
600 people Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives 200
Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades 200
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives is likely to
experience the greatest contraction over the mid-term (- Sales Occupations 200
200 people) (see Figure 11). Customer Service Occupations 100
Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals 100
Teaching and Research Professionals 0
Elementary Occupations: Trades, Plant and Storage related 0
Secretarial and Related Occupations 0
Science and Technology Associate Professionals -100
Protective Service Occupations -100
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades -100
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -200Over the longer term, in Aberdeen City and Shire
the greatest growth is forecast to be in Caring Figure 12: Forecast Employment Change by Occupation (2024-2031), Aberdeen City and Shire
Personal Service Occupations (also 800 people)
and Health Professionals (with an additional 800 Caring Personal Service Occupations 800
workers). This is followed by Culture, Media and Health Professionals 800
Sports Occupations (300 people), Business and Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 300
Public Service Professionals (200 people), and
Business and Public Service Professionals 200
Managers/Proprietors in Agriculture and Services
(200 people). Growth in these roles reflect the Managers / Proprietors in agriculture and services 200
relatively strong performance in business services Corporate Managers 100
employment and the uplift in spending and Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals 0
recruitment in the health sector. Customer Service Occupations -100
Skilled Agricultural Trades -100
Occupations likely to have the greatest contractions Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations -100
over the longer-term are Skilled Metal and Electrical
Skilled Construction and Building Trades -100
Trades (-1,500 people), Sales Occupations (-1,400
Business and Public Service Associate Professionals -200
people), Elementary Occupations; Clerical and
Services related (-1,200 people), Administrative Protective Service Occupations -200
Occupations (-1,100 people) and Process, Plant and Teaching and Research Professionals -200
Machine Operatives (-1,000 people) (see Figure 12). Secretarial and Related Occupations -300
Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades -300
There will also be changes in the types of roles Elementary Occupations: Trades, Plant and Storage related -400
workers undertake within sectors, as new ways of Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives -500
working and technologies are introduced to the
Science and Technology Professionals -500
workplace. This supports growth in IT and
Science and Technology Associate Professionals -600
technological-based roles across a broad range of
sectors, from manufacturing to retail to professional Sales Occupations -800
services – so not just in the digital sector. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -1,000
Administrative Occupations -1,100
Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services related -1,200
Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades -1,400Other Labour Market Indicators: Current Job Postings
Figure 13: Job Postings by Occupation (February 2021 – January 2022),
Current Job Postings in Aberdeen City and Shire27 Aberdeen City and Shire
A source of real-time labour market information is data on online jobs postings. It provides a useful
barometer for the activity of the jobs market alongside other insight. COVID-19 has had a substantial
impact on the volume of job postings across Scotland. We report monthly on the latest national data in Care workers and home carers 2,316
our COVID-19 Labour Market Insights Report. Nurses 1,821
Sales related occupations n.e.c. 1,182
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 1,141
Chartered and certified accountants 1,124
Number of job postings from February 1st, 2021 to January 31st, 2022 were: Cleaners and domestics 1,025
45,100, 8.0% of all job postings in Scotland Programmers and software… 1,010
Customer service occupations n.e.c. 950
61.2% more than previous 12-month period
Kitchen and catering assistants 777
Teaching and other educational… 737
Engineering professionals n.e.c. 681
Within the region the locations with the The most requested specialised skills were: Engineering technicians 651
most jobs advertised were: Managers and proprietors in other… 647
Sales and retail assistants 631
Aberdeen Teamwork/Collaboration Book-keepers, payroll managers and… 573
31,700 postings 4,900 postings Nursing auxiliaries and assistants 572
Van drivers 544
Customer Service Human resources and industrial… 530
Peterhead
1,900 postings 4,000 postings Secondary education teaching… 514
IT business analysts, architects and… 463
Budgeting Science, engineering and production… 438
Inverurie
3,000 postings Nursery nurses and assistants 433
1,500 postings
Medical practitioners 424
Marketing and sales directors 400
Elementary storage occupations 376Impact of COVID-19: At a glance
Furloughed Jobs in Aberdeen City and Shire Redundancies
PACE information provision (individuals):
Jobs furloughed at 30th September 2021:
7,800, 9.7% of Scotland’s furloughed workforce Location 2019/20 2020/21 1st April 2021-
31st Jan 2022
Jobs furloughed by gender: Aberdeen City and 3,570 11.437 1,225
Sectors with largest number of furloughed jobs:
Shire
Accommodation and Food Services: Scotland 11,189 34,222 5,784
3,700 1,300
4,100 Professional, Scientific and Technical:
PACE information provision (employer sites):
1,300
Location 2019/20 2020/21 1st April 2021-
Wholesale and Retail Trade: 31st Jan 2022
1,100
Female Male Aberdeen City and 76 195 21
Shire
Number of jobs furloughed by local authority: Scotland 498 1,009 184
Aberdeen City: 4,000 Aberdeenshire: 3,800 Modern Apprenticeship redundancies:
Females: 1,800 Females: 1,900 Aberdeen City and Shire: Scotland
Males: 2,200 Males: 1,900 Q3 2020/21: 63 Q3 2020/21: 834
Q3 2021/22: 17 Q3 2021/22: 194Impact of COVID-19: At a glance
Unemployment October 2019 to September 2020, and October 2020 to Universal Credit claims in Aberdeen City and Shire:
September 2021 in Aberdeen City and Shire: 32,600 33,200 33,300 33,200 33,100 33,000 32,700 32,400 31,500 31,000 30,700 30,500
30,300 30,800 31,100 31,800 32,300
28,500 29,500
26,900
Unemployment 16+ Unemployment 16-24 22,200
14,400 14,900
13,400
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
January February March April May June July August September October November December
9,500 12,900 4,300* 4,800
2020 2021
3.5% 4.8% 15.8% 16.9%
Since March 2020, across Scotland the number of Universal Credit claimants has
increased by 185,300, from 264,100 to 449,400 in December 2021.
Unemployment October 2019 to September 2020, and October 2020 to Claimant Count claims in Aberdeen City and Shire:
September 2021 in Scotland: 15,200
15,800 15,900 15,700 15,900 15,700
13,800 14,200
16,000 16,400 16,200 15,800
11,900
Unemployment 16+ Unemployment 16-24 14,500
13,600 13,200
12,500
11,700 11,200
6,900 7,100 7,100 10,800 10,600
19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
99,800 113,300 38,200 33,900
January February March April May June July August September October November December
3.6% 4.2% 11.5% 10.4% 2020 2021
Since March 2020, across Scotland the number of Claimant Count claimants has
increased by 23,200, from 114,700 to 137,900 in December 2021.
Please note that Claimant Count data has not been seasonally adjusted.First published in 2020, our series of COVID-19 Labour The sectors with the largest number of jobs furloughed in Trends in Furloughed Jobs
Market Insights explore traditional and new sources of Aberdeen City and Shire as of 30th September were: Time series data to 30th September 2021 was only
data and evidence to understand the impact of the available at Scotland level. As shown at Figure 14, the
pandemic on the labour market. In this section we Accommodation and Food Service: 1,300 jobs number of furloughed employments in Scotland peaked
replicate as far as possible the COVID-19 Insights for at 736,500 on 30th June 2020. This fell by 73.5 per cent
Aberdeen City and Shire and include analysis to to a low of 195,200 on 31st October 2020. However, the
demonstrate how the impact in the region compares to Professional, Scientific and Technical: 1,300 jobs introduction of a second lockdown saw this nearly
Scotland. double, to 373,000 on 31st January 2021. Reflecting the
loosening of restrictions, from 31st January to 30th April
Furloughed Jobs Wholesale and Retail Trade: 1,100 jobs 2021 the number of furloughed jobs fell by 103,200 or
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) ended 27.7 per cent.
on 30th September 2021. It was a vital support
mechanism for businesses affected by the pandemic, The number of furloughed jobs continued to fall into the
helping them to retain and continue paying their The sectoral profile of furlough in the region was broadly the
summer of 2021, down to 117,300 by 31st July 2021, a
employees. Early indications suggested that 9 in 10 same as Scotland..
decrease of 56.5% since 30th April 2021. By the end of
people in the UK who were supported by the CJRS in the CJRS, the number of furloughed jobs had fallen to
September 2021 were in work in October 2021. Across Scotland more male employments were furloughed
80,800, a decline of 31.1% since 31st July 2021, or
However, there is evidence to suggest that than female employments, 41,800 compared with 39,000 at
36,500 in actual numbers.
redundancies in Scotland increased in the three 30th September 2021. Whilst earlier in the pandemic there
months to November 2021. were more furloughed female employments, male
employments were the most furloughed in the last few
Jobs Furloughed28 months of the CJRS. The gender breakdown in the region is:
Figure 14: Furloughed jobs (June 2020 – September
At 30th September 2021, there were 7,800 jobs 2021), Scotland
furloughed in Aberdeen City and Shire, accounting for Female employments: 736,500
3.6 per cent of eligible employments for furlough in the 3,700 jobs,
region and 9.7 per cent of Scotland’s furloughed 3.3 per cent take up rate
workforce (80,800 jobs). 373,000
Male employments: 195,200 269,800
This furlough take up rate compares with 3.0 per cent 4,100 jobs, 117,300
in Scotland and 4.0 per cent in the UK. 80,800
3.8 per cent take up rate
30th June 31st 31st 30th April 31st July 30th
2020 October January 2021 2021 September
2020 2021 2021Redundancies The sectors with the greatest information provision for In addition, fluctuations throughout the year are expected. Due to the
Whilst the CJRS played a significant role in preventing individuals in Aberdeen City and Shire in 2020/21 lower number of MA starts, comparisons with the same point year,
mass redundancies, data does suggest that were: should be treated with caution.
redundancies increased as a result of the pandemic.
Mining and Manufacturing: By Q3 2021/22, 194 MAs have been made redundant in Scotland.
Quarrying: 7,991 583 For comparison, 834 MAs had been made redundant by Q3
Partnership Action for Continuing Employment
2020/21.
(PACE)29
PACE is a partnership of 24 organisations, led by SDS,
Accommodation and Wholesale and In Aberdeen City and Shire, 17 MAs were made redundant by Q3
which was set up by the Scottish Government to
Food Services: 870 Retail: 537 2021/22, compared with 63 by Q3 2020/21. From Q3 2020/21 to Q3
support businesses and individuals facing redundancy.
2021/22 the number of MA redundancies in the region decreased by
PACE aims to minimise the risk of redundancy before it
These sectors are broadly similar to those with the 73.0 per cent, compared with 76.7 per cent across Scotland.
happens.
greatest information provision to individuals across
Scotland. The occupational groupings with the largest number of MA
In the financial year 2020/21, PACE provided
redundancies in Scotland as at Q3 2021/22 were:
information to 34,222 individuals and 1,009 employer
sites across Scotland. For comparison, 11,189 From 1st April 2021 to 31st January 2022, PACE
individuals and 498 employer sites were supported in delivered information provision to 1,225 individuals and Construction and Related: 117
2019/20. 21 employer sites in Aberdeen City and Shire, and
5,784 individuals and 184 employer sites across
Hospitality and Tourism: 21
In Aberdeen City and Shire, 11,437 individuals and 195 Scotland.
employer sites were supported by PACE in 2020/21,
compared with 3,570 individuals and 76 employer sites Modern Apprenticeship (MA) Redundancies30 IT and Other Services: 12
in 2019/20. Proportionally, the number of individuals As with redundancies across the labour market, the
and employer sites supported by PACE increased by CJRS likely masked the full economic impact of the
more in Aberdeen City and Shire than it did in pandemic when it was active.
Scotland.
COVID-19 has fundamentally changed the context in
which apprenticeship training is delivered, and the
statistics must be considered in this context.Regional and National Unemployment Universal Credit33 Since the beginning of 2021/22, claimant count decreased in
The latest data shows that unemployment has fallen Whilst Universal Credit includes individuals who are not the Aberdeen City and Shire, to 10,600 in December 2021.
across Scotland in the past year. unemployed, data on Universal Credit claimants is a useful For comparison, across Scotland claimant count has also
and timely barometer of how COVID-19 has impacted on decreased.
There were 104,800 people aged 16+ unemployed in individuals.
Scotland over the period November 2021 to January Claimant count rate shows the number of claimants as a
2022. This was 8,600 fewer than the previous three- In the Aberdeen City and Shire, Universal Credit claims proportion of residents aged 16-64. As shown in Figure 15, in
month period (August 2021 to October 2021). increased from 14,900 in March 2020 (prior to the onset of the Aberdeen City and Shire the claimant count rate has
Furthermore, there were 14,600 fewer people the pandemic), to 33,300 in March 2021 (the end of the increased from 2.2 per cent in March 2020 to 5.1 per cent in
unemployed compared to the same point last year 2020/21 financial year). Proportionally, Universal Credit March 2021, falling to 3.3 per cent in December 2021. This is
(November 2020 to January 2021).31 claims increased more in the Aberdeen City and Shire than in a decrease from a peak of 5.2 per cent in February 2021. For
Scotland. comparison, across Scotland the claimant count rate was 3.3
Comparable regional data is not available for November per cent in March 2020, 6.1 per cent in March 2021 and 3.9
2021 to January 2022. However, we can report Since the beginning of 2021/22, Universal Credit claims have per cent in December 2021. Nationally the claimant count
unemployment data for those aged 16 and over and decreased in the Aberdeen City and Shire, to 30,500 in rate peaked at 6.4 per cent in August 2020.
those aged 16-24 between October 2020 and December 2021. This suggests the situation is improving. For
September 2021. Youth unemployment in Aberdeen City comparison, across Scotland the number of Universal Credit
and Shire was 4,800 (16.9 per cent), whilst total 16+ claims has also decreased.
unemployment was 12,900 (4.8 per cent).32
Figure 15: Claimant Count rate (January 2020 – December
Claimant Count34
This compares with 10.4 per cent for youth Claimant count aims to provide data on the number of people 2021), Aberdeen City and Shire
unemployment and 4.2 percent for total unemployment receiving out of work benefits. This is currently an 6.4%
6.1%
in Scotland. experimental series, which counts the number of people
claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance plus those who claim 3.9%
Compared with October 2019-September 2020, the 3.3% 5.2%
Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be 3.2% 5.1%
youth unemployment rate in Aberdeen City and Shire in available for work.
October 2020-September 2021 had increased by 1.1 3.3%
percentage points and the 16+ unemployment rate had In the Aberdeen City and Shire, claimant count increased 2.2% 2.2%
increased by 1.3 percentage points in the region. This from 7,100 in March 2020 (prior to the onset of the
March
July
November
December
March
July
November
December
April
April
May
June
October
October
September
May
June
September
February
February
January
August
January
August
compares to a decline of 1.1 percentage points in the pandemic), to 16,200 in March 2021 (the end of the 2020/21
youth unemployment rate in Scotland, and an increase financial year). Proportionally, claimant count increased more
of 0.6 percentage points in the total 16+ unemployment in the Aberdeen City and Shire than in Scotland.
rate in Scotland. 2020 2021
Aberdeen City and Shire ScotlandRegional Requirement35
Future demand for skills
In this section we provide an overview of the total labour market
requirement in Aberdeen City and Shire. They should be used as guidance
on overall trends based on current evidence - rather than definitive Expansion Demand
numbers. We provide this overview for two time periods: Expansion demand is the measure of an increase/decrease in jobs,
as a result of economic growth or contraction.
• The mid-term, 2021-2024; and
• The longer-term, 2024-2031.
We do this as the data and evidence suggests that, for the most part, the
changes and dynamics in the mid-term are largely a result of the economy
and labour market recovering from the impacts of the pandemic.
Replacement Demand
Whereas over the longer-term we see changes associated with recovery Replacement demand is the number of job openings generated by
level-off, and the labour market operating in the ‘new normal’. In most people leaving the labour market (i.e. those who retire, move away,
cases by the end of 2024 or during 2025 we see labour markets return to a or change jobs).
position similar to that pre-pandemic. Whilst this is generally the case, not
all regions are expected to.
It is important to note that the forecasts do not account for national or
regional activities, initiatives or investments that are planned. This is true
for planned activity relating to jobs being lost in the area through relocation
or business closure, and also activity that may lead to jobs being created.
Users of the RSA are encouraged to overlay the forecasts with their
knowledge of local factors. Total Requirement
Total requirement is made up of expansion demand and replacement
demand to show the total number of job openings.Future demand for skills – Job openings in the mid-term (2021 - 2024)
In Aberdeen City and Shire, the labour market forecast for the mid-
term (2021-2024) suggests there could be some jobs growth and
opportunities created as a result of the need to replace workers
leaving the labour market due to retirement and other reasons.
In Aberdeen City and Shire, 31,800 job openings are forecast from Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Job Openings
2021 to 2024. In the region, and as shown in the previous chapter, the Aberdeen City and Shire: Aberdeen City and Shire: Aberdeen City and Shire:
number of people required is forecast to increase by 6,800 from 2021 6,800 people 25,000 people 31,800 people
to 2024 due to expansion in the labour market. The replacement
requirement of 25,500 people will also create a need for labour. Scotland: 72,500 people Scotland: 289,000 people Scotland: 361,500 people
In Aberdeen City and Shire, the total requirement for people with higher education level qualifications
are:
In Scotland, 361,500 job openings are forecast from 2021 to 2024. The SCQF 11-12 SCQF 7-10 SCQF 6 SCQF 5 SCQF 1-4 No quals.
number of people required is forecast to increase by 72,500 from 2021
to 2024 due to expansion in the labour market. The replacement
requirement of 289,000 people will also create a need for labour. 2,800 15,300 3,300 6,800 1,400 2,200
(9%) (48%) (10%) (21%) (4%) (7%)
Whilst positive, there are still a wide range of factors which may impact
on the labour market. At the time of writing, labour shortages continue In Scotland, the greatest requirement for people with higher education level qualifications are:
to be a dominant issue, and addressing this will require a concerted
effort across talent attraction, upskilling and reskilling, and reducing SCQF 11-12 SCQF 7-10 SCQF 6 SCQF 5 SCQF 1-4 No quals.
economic inactivity.
29,000 174,700 44,800 72,200 15,700 25,100
(8%) (48%) (12%) (20%) (4%) (7%)
* Figures may not sum due to roundingYou can also read
