Real-Time Consumption Trends: Cardholder Transaction Analysis - Grupo Bancolombia
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Real-Time Consumption Trends:
Cardholder Transaction Analysis
In the week of September 30 to October 6, consumption grew 19% compared September 30 to October 6,
to 2020 and 9% against 2019. 2021
So far in 2021, the Caribbean region, Antioquia, and Bogota have posted the Economic, Industry & Market
best performance against 2020, while the Central and Eastern regions present Research Area Retail Sector
the best records compared to 2019. Nicolás Pineda Bernal
In the reference week, Bogota, Santa Marta, Cartagena, and Valledupar Head of commerce Research
nipineda@Bancolombia.com.co
showed the best dynamics in consumption compared to the same period in
2020, and Ibague and Manizales had the highest growth compared to 2019. Mateo Andrés Rivera Arbeláez
In September, consumption expanded 6% compared to 2019, one of the best Commerce Sector Analyst
marivera@bancolombia.com.co
records so far this year. According to Bancolombia’s monthly consumption
index, in September consumption reached 98 points, ranking second along Valentina Gómez Garzón
with August as the months with the best performance. Commerce Sector Analyst
valgomez@Bancolombia.com.co
In the reference week, against 2020, the categories with the best performance
were travel, entertainment and education, with triple-digit growth rates.
In August, 347,302 establishments carried out at least one transaction with ¿What are the characteristics of the data we
Bancolombia cards, the second highest record in the pandemic to date. use to map consumption and retail?
Please check the annexes of the report, where a series of graphs detailing the
behavior of each region is included.
394 11 COP39
mil
billones en
establecimientos millones de
consumidores facturación al año
de comercio
(2020)General Data
Consumption between September 30 and October 6 posted a 19% growth compared to 2020, and the performance was
positive even against 2019, up 9%. These results reflect an acceleration in the pace of recovery in consumption, since the
levels of purchases in the reference week were higher than those observed in a scenario without the effects of the
pandemic.
Regarding the monthly dynamics, in September consumption grew 6% compared to 2019, one of the best records so far
this year. According to Bancolombia’s monthly consumption index, in September consumption reached 98 points, ranking
second along with August as the months with the best performance, with July as the month with the highest level of
consumption, with 101 points, beating the records seen during 2019.
Estimated growth in consumption* per week
Estimated monthly growth in consumption* (annual % var.)
(annual % var. per week)
YoY Var 2021/2020 YoY Var 2021/2020 YoY Var 2021/2019
70% YoY Var 2021/2019 (right edge) 25% 100%
60% 20%
80% 79% 56%
15%
50% 9% 60%
10%
40%
40% 36%
5% 20%
30% 20% 44%
11% 38%
0% 20% 5% 4% 6%
20% -1% -6% -4% 23%
-5% 0%
10% 19%
-10% 9% 3% 9%
-20%
-9%
0% -15% -18%
Jul 1 to 7
Jul 8 to 14
Jul 15 to 21
Jul 22 to 28
-40%
Sep 30 to Oct 6
Jul 29 to Aug 4
Aug 26 to Sep 1
May 27 to Jun 2
Jun 3 to 9
Aug 5 to 11
Aug 12 to 18
Aug 19 to 25
Jun 10 to 16
Jun 17 to 23
Jun 24 to 30
Sep 2 to 8
Sep 9 to 15
Sep 16 to 22
Sep 23 to 29
March
May
September
July
October*
February
April
June
January
August
*Calculated from the consumption of goods and services by Bancolombia **As of October 6
cardholders.
Source: Grupo Bancolombia. Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
Bancolombia consumption index** Estimated consumption growth during 2021 vs. 2019
Base** 2019 = 100 (nominal variations)
Bancolombia consumption index
10.0%
2019 Consumption Levels
9.0% 8.6% 8.5%
118
120 8.0%
7.0%
100
105 101.0 97.6
98 101 6.0%
80
97 97 97.7
91
83 83 84 87 87 5.0%
74 73 74 79
60
4.0%
58 3.1%
40 3.0%
45
20 2.0%
0 1.0%
Apr-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Mar-20
Oct-20
Mar-21
Jan-20
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Aug-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
May-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
May-20
Jul-20
Jul-21
0.0%
Parcial 2021 Parcial September* Week 40
(from Sep 30 to Oct
6)
Source: Grupo Bancolombia. Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
* Values at constant 2019 prices
** 2019 average consumptionRegional Data
Compared to 2020, so far in 2021 the Caribbean region, Antioquia, and Bogota and Cundinamarca have led the recovery
in consumption, up close to 26%. Second comes Central and the Eastern regions, up 21% and 19%, respectively. In
contrast, the Western region continues to show the lowest performance, with a 12% growth, due to the social unrest.
Against 2019, the results are more moderate, where the Central and Eastern regions are the best performing, with
growths close to 16%, followed by Caribe and Antioquia, up 7% and 6%. In contrast, the recovery in pre-pandemic
consumption levels has been more moderate in the Western region, with a growth of 2%, while in Bogota and
Cundinamarca consumption is below the 2019 levels.
By cities, during the last week of analysis, Bogota, Santa Marta, Cartagena, and Valledupar showed the best dynamics in
consumption with respect to the same period in 2020, which can be explained by the normalization of tourism related
activities. On the other hand, against 2019, it is important to highlight that most cities in the reference group show
positive variations, with seven even reaching double-digit growth. Finally, the cities that presented the highest
consumption levels in the reference week, against 2019, were Ibague, Manizales, and the other cities group.
Estimated growth in consumption by regions (annual % var. in current COP)
Bogota y Cundinamarca Antioquia Caribbean West East Center
30% 25% 25% 27%
19% 21%
20% 15% 17%
12%
10% 6% 7%
2%
0%
-10% -2% -1% -2%
-7%
-20% -13%-12%
-20%
-30%
Var. 2020 Var. Parcial 2021/2020 Var. Parcial 2021/2019
**As of October 6
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
Estimated consumption growth by city (annual % var. per week)
Annual % var. per week 2021/2020 Annual % var. per week 2021/2019
Sep 2 Sep 9 Sep 16 to Sep 23 Sep 30 Total Parcial Sep 2 Sep 9 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 30 to Parcial
City to 8 to 15 22 to 29 to Oct 6 2020 2021 to 8 to 15 to 22 to 29 Oct 6 2021
Ibagué 14% 3% 24% 12% 14% -3% 29% 23% 12% 35% 22% 33% 22%
Manizales 14% 9% 19% 15% 16% -6% 29% 22% 14% 31% 12% 24% 17%
Otras 6% 7% 9% 9% 6% 2% 20% 17% 11% 22% 15% 23% 20%
Pereira 16% 16% 13% 15% 14% -7% 23% 18% 14% 18% 15% 19% 12%
Cúcuta 3% 12% 1% -3% 2% -1% 22% 13% 17% 17% 5% 17% 19%
Pasto 2% 6% 4% 10% -1% 1% 16% 13% 7% 14% 21% 15% 14%
Valledupar 21% 31% 23% 20% 19% -9% 20% 6% 5% 12% 2% 15% 5%
Santa Marta 46% 41% 28% 33% 19% -19% 40% 12% 5% 16% 10% 14% 7%
Neiva 5% 4% 9% 11% 0% -1% 20% 7% 10% 22% 11% 12% 16%
Barranquilla 16% 16% 17% 12% 13% -16% 29% 7% -1% 13% 1% 11% 2%
Medellín 17% 15% 15% 18% 17% -19% 27% 3% 0% 4% 2% 7% -1%
Cartagena 38% 31% 31% 27% 19% -22% 34% 1% -3% 7% 1% 7% 0%
Cali 10% 10% 13% 10% 6% -14% 15% 2% -1% 9% 1% 6% -4%
Bucaramanga 16% 16% 7% 5% 7% -14% 24% 1% 3% 9% -2% 6% 2%
Armenia 9% 5% -1% 5% 3% -6% 19% 2% 1% 6% 5% 4% 8%
Bogotá D.C. 41% 46% 43% 41% 32% -22% 26% -6% 31% -17% 5% 3% -4%
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.Figures by Retail Category
In 2021, the performance of the different consumer categories has been positive compared to 2020. A total of 14 out of
15 categories showed a positive variation, highlighting the food (109%), entertainment (93%), travel (76%) and beauty
(76%) segments. It is important to note that the double- or triple-digit growth rates in these categories are largely due to
the base effect given the low levels of purchases during 2020. Of these categories, only food presents consumption
levels higher than those observed in 2019 (pre-pandemic year). In the case of entertainment, travel and beauty, despite
the recovery process in recent months, consumption continues to be lower than the pre-pandemic scenario.
The results in the reference week, against the same period in 2020, show an outstanding performance in the travel,
entertainment and education categories, growing above 100%. The good performance is due to the normalization of
daily activities and the return to classrooms in the different educational institutions of the country.
Compared to 2019, in the week of September 16 to 22, the categories with the best results were miscellaneous services,
home and insurance and taxes, growing over 40%. Finally, regarding the recovery of consumption, it is noteworthy that
year-to-date, 10 of the 15 categories are above the levels seen in 2019.
Retail purchases growth by category (annual % var. per week)
Annual % var. per week 2021/2020 Annual % var. per week 2021/2019 **
Sep 2 Sep 9 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 30 Parcial Sep 2 Sep 9 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 30 Parcial
Category to 8 to 15 to 22 to 29 to Oct 6
Total 2020
2021 to 8 to 15 to 22 to 29 to Oct 6 2021
Miscellaneous services 20% 15% 15% 15% 27% 21% 24% 53% 36% 48% 43% 63% 47%
Household items 14% 24% 19% 21% 16% 13% 29% 35% 44% 51% 40% 47% 42%
Grocery stores ex hypermarkets* 7% 2% 22% 20% 17% 7% 34% 31% 45% 37% 41% 46% 36%
Food 150% 123% 100% 89% 75% -39% 109% 37% 29% 42% 36% 42% 11%
Grocery stores 6% 4% 7% 7% 9% 32% 2% 35% 28% 45% 31% 42% 39%
Grocery stores -9% -9% -7% -10% 4% 16% -8% 8% 1% 12% -7% 25% 10%
Healthcare 26% 25% 23% 22% 14% -6% 35% 23% 13% 36% 25% 21% 21%
Vehicles 16% 13% 16% 13% 9% -7% 28% 13% 11% 19% 22% 16% 14%
Sports & hobbies 1% 2% 1% -10% 6% -9% 20% 11% 2% 10% 7% 16% 5%
Entertainment 243% 194% 163% 164% 125% -48% 93% 33% 21% 40% 26% 12% -9%
Clothing & accesories 13% 21% 15% 14% 11% -23% 43% 12% 6% 14% 8% 10% -2%
Travel 274% 265% 238% 215% 189% -56% 76% -10% -11% -6% -2% 4% -27%
Technology -4% -6% -5% -2% -7% 3% 6% -1% -1% 2% -2% -4% 6%
Education 59% 75% 75% 71% 101% -35% 9% -17% -27% -20% -25% -7% -27%
Beauty 97% 101% 54% 62% 37% -43% 76% -7% 8% 10% 3% -15% -10%
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
*We separate the grocery stores category into two: grocery stores without hypermarkets, to see the effect only of supermarkets and convenience stores, where turnover is associated
with basic goods, while grocery stores include the turnover of hypermarkets, where there is a share of durable goods such as are clothing, appliances and technology.
Changes in the pocket share* of the Colombian consumer by retail category
100%
Education
90%
Beauty
80% 4% 6% 5% Sports & hobbies
7% 6% 6% 5%
Entertainment
70% 8%
7% 2% 9% 8% Technology
9% 8% 8%
60% 8% 10% 3% 4%
5% 7% Insurance & taxes
10% 8%
12% Healthcare
50% 11% 10% 12% 11% 12% Miscellaneous services
40% 15%
15% 22% Food
16% 16%
30% 17% Household items
45% Travel
20%
29% 32% Vehicles
27% 26% 27% 23%
10% Clothing & accesories
0% Grocery stores*
Trim 1 2020 Trim 2 2020 Trim 3 2020 Trim 4 2020 Trim 1 2021 Trim 2 2021 Trim 3 2021
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
**As of October 6
*The pocket share measures the percentage of money that Colombian consumers allocate to each retail category.Active Retail Establishments
In September, 347,302 establishments recorded at least one transaction with Bancolombia cards, the second-best record
since the pandemic began, after July 2021. Although the results for the month are positive against 2020 (up 34%) , they
are still 9% below the 2019 average record.
Given the great advances in vaccination and the process of reactivating the economy, the recovery in the different
establishments may be faster than expected and, in that sense, there is evidence, for now, of a more accelerated
recovery in Bogota and Cundinamarca, Antioquia, and the Caribbean region.
Annual variation in the number of establishments that recorded transactions over the month
Number of retail stablishments 2019 Avarage Var. Anual
500,000 137% 160%
394,357 120%
400,000 71%
80%
300,000 44%
36% 34%
40%
14% 15% -29%
177,975 -37% -25% 43%
200,000 -32% -26%
-14% -44% -41% -34%
-53% -29% 0%
-67% -3%
100,000
-40%
- -80%
Enero 2021
Febrero 2021
Abril
Octubre
Julio
Marzo 2021
Mayo 2021
Agosto 2021
Enero
Septiembre
Febrero
Junio 2021
Diciembre
Abril 2021
Julio 2021
Septiembre 2021
Marzo
Mayo
Agosto
Noviembre
Junio
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
Annual variation in the number of establishments that recorded transactions in the month
by regions
Sep-20 Sep-21 Var
160,000 51% 60%
42%
140,000
120,000
100,000 29%
80,000 30%
21% 20%
60,000
40,000 20%
20,000
- 0%
West
Center
East
Antioquia
Cundinamarca
Caribbean
Bogota y
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.Annex: Impact of Bogota and Cundinamarca in
Graphics
Estimated consumption growth* per week Estimated consumption growth* per week
(annual % var. per week) 2021/2020 (annual % var. per week) 2021/2019
Bogota y Cundinamarca Rest of the country Bogota y Cundinamarca Rest of the country
90% 40%
80% 30%
70%
20% 13%
60%
50% 10%
40% 29%
0%
30% 4%
20% 11% -10%
10%
-20%
0%
Jun 3 to 9
Aug 26 to Sep 1
Jul 1 to 7
Sep 2 to 8
Jun 10 to 16
Jun 17 to 23
Jun 24 to 30
Aug 12 to 18
Aug 19 to 25
May 27 to Jun 2
Aug 5 to 11
Sep 23 to 29
Sep 30 to Oct 6
Jul 15 to 21
Jul 22 to 28
Jul 29 to Aug 4
Sep 16 to 22
Jul 8 to 14
Sep 9 to 15
-30%
May 27 to Jun 2
Sep 16 to 22
Jul 15 to 21
Jul 22 to 28
Jul 29 to Aug 4
Sep 23 to 29
Sep 30 to Oct 6
Jun 3 to 9
Jul 8 to 14
Aug 26 to Sep 1
Sep 9 to 15
Jul 1 to 7
Sep 2 to 8
Aug 12 to 18
Aug 19 to 25
Jun 10 to 16
Jun 17 to 23
Jun 24 to 30
Aug 5 to 11
Source: Grupo Bancolombia. Source: Grupo Bancolombia.
*Estimated growth of retail sales: the behavior in the billing of purchases made by Bancolombia cardholders (debit and credit card).
Annual variation (2021/2019) by retail category during protests in Colombia and Bogota and Cundinamarca
(January 1 to October 6, 2021)
80% Bogota y Cundinamarca 70%
Rest of the country
60%
49%
38%
40% 31% 32%
27% 29% 30% 24%
16%
20% 10% 11%
10%
5% 5% 5% 2%
1%
0%
-3% -6%
-20% -10%
-16% -18% -14%
-26%
-40% -30% -31%
-33%
Food
Beauty
Travel
Insurance & taxes
Education
Miscellaneous services
Technology
Clothing & accesories
Household items
Grocery stores
Vehicles
Healthcare
Sports & hobbies
Entertainment
Source: Grupo Bancolombia.Annex: Detail of retail categories*
Categoría Subcategoría
Belleza Perfumerías y tienda de cosméticos
Belleza Salones de belleza, peluquerías
Belleza Baños turcos, salas de masajes, centros estética
Belleza Gimnasios, sauna, baños turcos y centros de estética
Comida Dulcerías
Comida Panaderías y reposterías
Comida Restaurantes y demás
Comida Venta de Comidas Rápidas
Deportes y Hobbies Almacén de bicicletas, venta y servicios
Deportes y Hobbies Almacenes de artículos deportivos
Deportes y Hobbies Librerías y papelerías
Educacion Colegios, Universidades, Institutos de Educación Tecnológica y Preescolar
Educacion Escuelas de enseñanza informal
Educacion Servicios de guardería
Educacion Congresos y seminarios
Entretenimiento Eventos, fiestas y banquetes
Entretenimiento Bares, tabernas y discotecas
Entretenimiento Cigarrerías y licoreras
Entretenimiento Almacenes de juegos, juguetes y hobbies
Entretenimiento Salas de cine
Entretenimiento Agencias de boletería (teatro) excepto cine
Entretenimiento Casinos, juegos de azar, loterías y rifas
Hogar Viveros y almacenes para jardinería
Hogar Suscripción TV por cable y otros servicios de radio y TV
Hogar Ferreterías
Hogar Almacenes de misceláneas, cacharrería y artículos para regalo
Hogar Muebles para el hogar y oficina
Hogar Almacenes de artículos para el hogar
Hogar Almacenes de electrodomésticos y gasodomésticos
Hogar Almacenes de artículos típicos y antigüedades (venta, reparación y restauración)
Hogar Almacenes de mascotas, alimentos y accesorios para mascotas
Hogar Inmobiliarias
Hogar Servicios públicos
Mercado Supermercados
Mercado Salsamentarias, ventas de carnes y lácteos
Mercado Almacén por departamento con supermercado
*Las subcategorías que se ilustran en esta tabla son las más representativas de cada categoría de comercioCategoría Subcategoría Salud Droguerías, farmacias y tiendas naturistas Salud Venta de artículos médicos, odontológicos y ortopédicos Salud Consultorios y servicios médicos y odontológicos Salud Clínicas y hospitales Salud Laboratorios clínicos Seguros e impuestos Instituciones financieras Seguros e impuestos Aseguradoras y medicina prepagada Seguros e impuestos Servicios médicos y de salud Seguros e impuestos Pago de impuestos y agencias gubernamentales Servicios Varios Contratistas generales, residenciales y comerciales Servicios Varios Servicios de mensajería, correo y encomiendas Servicios Varios Depósito de materiales de construcción Servicios Varios Almacenes de artículos de oficina y escolares Servicios Varios Servicio de lavatapetes y tapizados Servicios Varios Servicios de exterminación y desinfección Servicios Varios Administración de áreas comunes, servicios de limpieza, mantenimiento y celaduría Servicios Varios Servicios de alquiler de equipos, muebles y herramientas (incluye leasing) Tecnologia Venta de equipos y servicios de telecomunicaciones Tecnologia Computadores, equipos, accesorios, hardware y software Tecnologia Almacenes de venta de equipos electrónicos Tecnologia Almacenes de computadores y software Vehiculos Venta de vehículos automotores y motocicletas Vehiculos Servitecas y llantas Vehiculos Repuestos y accesorios automotrices Vehiculos Venta de combustibles Vehiculos Compañías de alquiler de vehículos Vehiculos Garajes y parqueaderos Vehiculos Talleres de mecánica y latonería y pintura y servicios de grúa Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes por departamento sin supermercado Vestuario y Accesorios Perfumerías y tiendas de cosméticos Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes de vestuario y accesorios Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes de calzado y remontadoras Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes de relojes, joyas y platerías Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes de artículos de cuero, maletas y accesorios Vestuario y Accesorios Almacenes de telas y accesorios para costura Vestuario y Accesorios Lavanderías y lavasecos Vestuario y Accesorios Alquiler de vestidos y disfraces Viajes Transporte de pasajeros terrestre, fluvial y marítimo Viajes Compañías de aviación nacional Viajes Agencias de viaje y operadores de turismo Viajes Venta directa, aerolíneas y turismo Viajes Hoteles nacionales
Economic, Industry and Market Research
Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango
Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research
juespino@bancolombia.com.co
Economic Research Industry Research Equity Research
Arturo Yesid González Peña Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo
Quantitative Specialist Head of Agroindustry Research Head of Equity Research
arygonza@bancolombia.com.co jhescoba@bancolombia.com.co jjagudel@bancolombia.com.co
Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes Nicolás Pineda Bernal Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar
Macroeconomic Specialist Head of Commerce Research Utilities Analyst
juamenes@bancolombia.com.co nipineda@bancolombia.com.co diebuit@bancolombia.com.co
Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez Mateo Andrés Rivera Arbeláez Andrea Atuesta Meza
Markets and Central Banking Analyst Commerce Industry Analyst Financial Sector Analyst
jupachec@bancolombia.com.co marivera@bancolombia.cobm.co aatuesta@bancolombia.com.co
Paolo Betancur Montoya Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA
Santiago Espitia Pinzón
Agroindustry Analyst Cement & Infrastructure Analyst
Macroeconomic Analyst
pabetanc@bancolombia.com.co juaguila@bancolombia.com.co
sespitia@bancolombia.com.co
Javier David Villegas Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera
Bryan Hurtado Campuzano Oil & Gas and Airlines Analyst
International Analyst Real Estate and Hotels Analyst
javilleg@bancolombia.com.co rsandova@bancolombia.com.co
brhurtd@bancolombia.com.co
Valentina Martínez Jaramillo
Deiby Alejandro Rojas Cano Valentina Gómez Garzón Consumer & Industry Analyst
Macroindustry Analyst Commerce Sector Analyst vamjaram@bancolombia.com.co
deirojas@bancolombia.com.co valgomez@bancolombia.com.co
Laura Natalia Capacho Camacho
Luisa Daniela Espejo Rodríguez Juan Esteban Echeverri Agudelo Junior Sector Analyst
Intern Administrative Assistant lcapacho@bancolombia.com.co
lespejo@bancolombia.com.co jueagude@bancolombia.com.co
Andrés Camilo Chacón Briceño
Simón Londoño Duque
Intern
Intern
anchacon@bancolombia.com.co
silondon@bancolombia.com.co
Research Assistant
Alejandro Quiceno Rendón
Research Editor
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below, subject to the following criteria:
The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target
price is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair
price the market should pay for the shares on a given date.
Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the
assets are determined as follows:
•Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index.
•Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index.
•Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index.
•Under Review: the company’s coverage is under review and therefore there’s no rating or target price.
Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking
into account the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show.
The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index,
considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and
November of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used.
Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 18 companies under coverage, distributed as follows:
Overweight Market Weight Underweight Under Review
Number of issuers with ratings of: 10 2 5 1
Percentage of issuers with ratings of: 55.5% 11% 28% 5.5%You can also read
