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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
SAN DIEGO REGION
Real Estate
Trends Report
Photo by Scott Murphy
1
2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Welcome to the San Diego-Tijuana
2021 Emerging Trends in Real Estate Report.
Brian F. Mooney FAICP
Principal, RICK Engineering Company
District Chair 2020-2022, San Diego/Tijuana ULI
The Urban Land Institute (ULI) is a leading voice in real estate The local version of Emerging Trends in Real Estate looks at
regionally, in the US and throughout major global markets. the key market sectors for Office, Industrial, Hotel/Hospitality,
Our “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” is a trend and forecast Retail, For-Sale Housing, Rental Housing and Affordable
publication now in its 42 edition, and it is considered one of Housing. We have also included a Special Report on State
the most highly regarded forecast reports in the real estate and Local Policy that will affect real estate trends. A review
and land use industry. The year 2020, due to the worldwide of Tijuana and its regional markets is being produced as a
pandemic for COVID-19, has reshaped the playing field separate report.
for multiple industries, which in turn has had a significant
Our team at the San Diego-Tijuana ULI has conducted
impact on the real estate industry. On a national scale, the
interviews with key leaders, developed a questionnaire to
ULI Emerging Trends Report has focused on “Dealing with
help build on the research and interviews and analyzed the
Certain Uncertainties,” and to better understand these issues
potential trends for 2021 and 2022. The result is a report
and how they affect our local San Diego-Tijuana region, our
that critically examines and draws conclusions on what to
District Council decided to develop a focused study by local
anticipate in these varying land use categories. I believe it
professionals to delve into the market trends that relate to
will help both public and private professionals, agencies and
our real estate and land use issues.
businesses make informed decisions relating to potential
land use and investment opportunities.
I look forward to learning your comments on this new and
important endeavor, and to all the professionals, business
leaders and government officials that have helped make this
a reality, I thank you.
Brian F. Mooney, FAICP
San Diego-Tijuana ULI, District Chair 2020-2022
2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report ULI San Diego-Tijuana would like to thank and recognize the many people who contributed to this local Real Estate Trends Report. Committee, Authors, Editors & Contributors And to our local Sponsors Beth Callender CallenderWorks Allen Matkins Kimley-Horn Gary London London Moeder Associates Bank of America KTUA Brian Mooney Rick Engineering Company Brookfield Properties LISC San Diego Chris Clark Director, ULI San Diego-Tijuana Buchalter LOWE Eduardo Velasquez Research Director, San Diego Regional EDC C&S Companies McCullough Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director, SANDAG CallenderWorks Miller Hull Partnership Belinda Sward Strategic Solutions Alliance Cavignac & Associates National CORE Tony Pauker Former San Diego-Tijuana District Council Chair Civic SD Procopio Peter Dennehy Vice President Customer & Market Research, Newland Dudek Project Design Consultants Richard Gollis Principal & Co-Founder, The Concord Group Fairfield Residential Resmark Equity Partners Nicole Sadowsky Manager, The Concord Group Gensler RICK Engineering Company Michael Combs Associate Director, CBRE Greenhaus Silvergate Development Derek Hulse Managing Director, Cushman Wakefield Hensel Phelps SGPA Bret Morriss Managing Director, Stream Realty Group HomeFed Corp Tideline Partners Steve Williams Founder & Partner, SENTRE Hub & Spoke Communities University of San Diego Robert Rauch Hotel Entrepreneur, RAR Hospitality IDS Ware Malcomb Julie Coker President & CEO San Diego Tourism Authority Katz & Associates Daniel Reeves Juniper Strategic Advisory Jennifer Whitelaw Senior Consultant, TW2 Marketing Notice to Readers This report is a forecast publication produced by ULI San Diego-Tijuana with the support of industry members from throughout the region. It is inspired by the Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate report and based on the best available information at the time of writing. The San Diego-Tijuana Trends Report seeks to provide an informed outlook on real estate investment and development as understood by ULI San Diego-Tijuana and our contributing authors. The analysis, views and opinions expressed herein are those of the contributing authors and not necessarily their employers, the Urban Land Institute or the ULI San Diego-Tijuana chapter. The material that follows was developed from a number of sources: interviews, research by individual contributing authors, surveys and forecasting. Contributing authors to this report are identified at the beginning of each section and are responsible for the content of their chapters. While the information contained in this report represents informed analysis of the San Diego-Tijuana real estate market, it should not be used to make business decisions in lieu of professional consultation.
2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
SAN DIEGO REGION
Real Estate
Trends Report
Contents
1 ������� Executive Summary From EVOLUTION TO 19 ����� Property Type Outlook RENTAL HOUSING Market
REVOLUTION Gary H. London, Senior Principal, Overview Richard Gollis, Principal & Co-Founder,
London Moeder Advisors The Concord Group
5 ������� San Diego Region ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 22 ����� Property Type Outlook RETAIL Market Overview
PRIORITIES: 2021 & Beyond Eduardo Velasquez, Michael Combs, Associate Director, CBRE
Research Director, San Diego Regional EDC
25 ����� Property Type Outlook OFFICE Market Overview
7 ������� How SANDAG’s Five Big Moves Could Reshape Our Derek Hulse, Managing Director, Cushman Wakefield
Region. Q & A with HASAN IKHRATA
28 ����� Property Type Outlook INDUSTRIAL Trends &
Executive Director, SANDAG
Investment Prospects Bret Morriss, Managing
9 ������� Real Estate Outlook INSIGHTS from District Council Director, Stream Realty Partners
Members Belinda Sward, Strategic Solutions Alliance
31 ����� Property Type Outlook HOTEL Hospitality Forecast
14 ����� Property Type Outlook HOUSING Introduction Robert Rauch, Hotel Entrepreneur, RAR Hospitality
Tony Pauker, Former ULI District Council Chair &
33 ����� The Impact of COVID-19 on Hospitality & Tourism.
Advisory Board Member
Q & A with JULIE COKER President & CEO,
15 ����� Property Type Outlook FOR-SALE HOUSING Market San Diego Tourism Authority
Overview Peter Dennehy, Vice President Customer &
34 ����� Special Report POLICY Round-up by Daniel Reeves,
Market Research, Newland
Juniper Strategic Advisory
2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Executive Summary
From EVOLUTION TO REVOLUTION
by Gary H. London, Senior Principal, London Moeder Advisors
Oh, what a year it was. Even though forecasting is, at best, Because real estate is a reflection of the physical places
a business fraught with failure, the year 2020 started with which accommodate all of our activities, persons in the land
economic forecasts, including those of ULI, blindingly use and real estate business have only to look to the pace of
absent of any real sense of the economic calamity that vaccination to offer some prediction on the pace of recovery
would play out as a response to global pandemic. Most of of the real estate market.
those forecasts portrayed 2020 as a mirror image of 2019,
To be sure, some aspects of real estate were more burdened
with continued economic prosperity showing no real sign of
than others. Those relative burdens are detailed in this Trends
impending recession, and all systems more or less “go”.
report and summarized here. But none of the real estate
All systems were not “go” as the world, the U.S. and the San sectors have been left unscathed. There are both temporary
Diego region experienced a full year of economic deep freeze, and permanent changes in their use, occupancy and
pending vaccination as the likely solution to end the ravaging relevancy which will be reflected in their future performance.
of the disease and reopen the economy. The nation has lost The more ”sticky” changes have been catalyzed by the
nearly ten million jobs in the past year. Over that time, the pandemic. But they were going to happen anyway. What the
unemployment rate surged from 3.5% in January 2020 to pandemic wrought was a sooner-than-expected alteration in
6.7% by the end of the year. The high point was 14.8% in April. use and occupancy. That suggests some permanence.
In San Diego, there still is the sobering reality that the region
Other changes are not so sticky and are likely to shake
lost an estimated 70,000 to 105,000 jobs last year, particularly
off the aftereffects of pandemic as it slips further into our
in the lower wage and economically vulnerable sectors, and
rear-view mirror. There are also silver linings for new types
there is no letup in the region’s high cost of living.
of real estate uses which are accelerating. The challenge
The economic salvation of the San Diego region has always for land use professionals is to be able to sort out the sticky
been the military, an employer which counts 150,000 persons from the temporary and make decisions on development,
who always meet their payroll. There are 354,000 military
COVID-19’s Impact on Key Trends
connected jobs accounting for 22 percent of all jobs in the
region. But there is also an increasingly diversified mix of Accelerated by COVID-19 Stopped or slowed by
tourism, technology, life science, healthcare, manufacturing, • Work from home COVID-19 (for now)
and general business (most of which are small). Implication? A • Move to Sun Belt states • Appeal of CBDs/density
deficiency in one sector (tourism, for instance, this past year) • Suburban migration • In-person conferences
• Public open space & meetings
does not take down the whole economy.
• Retail sector • Experiential retail
transformation • Leisure travel/tourism
• Importance of • Business travel
redundant supply chains • Mass transit use
• Proptech shift to WFH • Apartment amenity wars
& building safety • Tourist-oriented retail
• Municipal/state • Live entertainment
fiscal issues • University towns
• Safety/health • Student housing
concerns in buildings
• Global supply chains
• Affordable housing crisis
• Concerns about
racial equity
• Federal deficit
• Bikes & scooters
Photo by Scott Murphy National ULI 2021 Emerging Real Estate Trends Report
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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
conversion of Horton Plaza from predominantly retail to
OVERALL REAL ESTATE HOMEBUILDING office; the buildout of the RAD project fronting San Diego
PROSPECTS RANKING PROSPECTS RANKING
Bay to create a giant commercial office and life-science
1 Raleigh/Durham 1 Raleigh/Durham footprint, as well as hotels and retail; the deal completion
2 Austin 2 Austin and entitlement of the San Diego Padres Tailgate Park
7 Salt Lake City 9 Denver project near Petco Park as a mixed-use, commercial
13 Denver 15 Orange County office complex.
15 Phoenix 18 Salt Lake City • The voter approved elimination of height restrictions in
17 Inland Empire 24 San Diego-Tijuana the Midway District and completion of negotiations on
18 Orange County 26 Phoenix City-owned land to initiate the Sports Arena project by
28 Los Angeles 34 Inland Empire Brookfield Properties.
31 San Diego-Tijuana 63 Los Angeles • Solidification of the proposed San Diego Regional
60 San Francisco 74 San Francisco Transportation Hub in a deal between the Navy and
SANDAG on the old NAVWAR site, which one day could
Rankings according to the National ULI 2021
Emerging Real Estate Trends Report
house thousands of housing units and commercial,
sitting above multiple levels of transportation hub
redevelopment, investment, and adaptive reuse in a way connected to the airport.
which is not over reaction, while not ignoring the long-term No doubt we neglected to mention a major project that is
consequences. near and dear to someone including projects underway
San Diego’s economy of $241.2 billion gross regional product throughout San Diego’s North and South County. In its
is forecasted to grow by 4.3% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, above totality it is a lot to take in, particularly amid a recession.
its 10-year average of 2.7%. The challenge for the real estate What follows is a summary of the trends and prospects, by
and land use sectors is to provide the built environment to sector. It is a report card on how we are doing.
accommodate that growth.
Residential: The San Diego region housing market remains
To offer perspective, we conducted research comparing San grossly under supplied in its housing counts, a problem that
Diego to other major metropolitan areas, confirming that our is likely to remain, perpetual, but has never been worse. Over
region is performing well, with obvious relative advantages, the past eight years we have amassed a shortage of 36,000
including our economic diversification, our coastal location units, with only 6,700 homes constructed in the past year. The
which encourages a “blue” economy, and high quality of life, need going forward is for the construction of 16,000 homes
which portend a healthy economic future. But there are also per year. The deficiencies cannot exclusively be made up in
disadvantages, the most obvious being our high cost of living. simply adding infill projects. The real world impacts have
Our saving grace is that other California metropolitan markets been a dramatic rise in home prices and rental rates, all of
(San Francisco-Bay area, Los Angeles, and Orange County) which have been exacerbated by a dramatic drop in resale
are more expensive and fraught with difficult regulatory listings, brought on by low interest rates and pandemic-
frameworks, factors which encourage people and companies induced protocols.
to look to us for expansion and relocation.
This year will also be unprecedented in the introduction
and continuation of big projects and investments, at a level
seldom, if ever, envisioned in the San Diego Region. Among
these projects include:
• Early phase development of the Port’s Chula Vista
Bayfront; as well as continued planning for a new
Seaport Village.
• San Diego State University’s Mission Valley West campus,
which is well underway.
• Mega-projects in San Diego’s downtown in planning
and/or construction including the completion of the Source: London Moeder Advisors, SANDAG, RERC
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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Office: Vacancy rates have taken a significant jump, from Capital Markets: As in every recession, opportunity funds
12% to 17%. Over time offices will reoccupy, but at a low level will emerge. So called “bottom fishing” is a defined art in the
of near-term absorption, and overall demand will decline on real estate investment world, and capital will be available.
a person per square foot basis as company’s downsize and However, the level of underwriting scrutiny will be high as
address flexible options. Lease rates are expected to decline developers must defend new projects in the throes of a
at least 8% from 2020 as renewals will account for 42% of recession and unprecedented change in real estate demand
transactions. However, Downtown San Diego is expected along all asset classes. Expect no bargains in the apartment
to experience 3 to 5 million square feet of new construction sector, but there are likely to be opportunities for investment
starting this year, a result of life science and technology in the commercial sectors. Supporting new development are
cluster expansion. the lowest interest rates in modern times, which favor the
spectrum of debt lending.
Retail: Retail employment has declined 13.5% over the past
year, and no sector has experienced change as significant as A Word on Land Use Policy, Population Growth,
competition from online, coupled with an overabundance and the Regional Economy
of space are now taking their toll on ‘sticks and bricks’.
2020 was a Presidential political year, creating a sea change
Shopping center vacancy was 6.1% at the end of 2020 and is
in national leadership. But it was no less a sea change in
rising. Expect dynamic activity in adaptive reuse, conversions
local leadership, with Democrats achieving solid control in
and redevelopment.
both the City and County of San Diego. The City of San Diego
Industrial: This sector has remained strong, and new adopted an inclusionary housing ordinance, middle income
development on Otay Mesa will result in the addition of 5.6 density bonus program, and two elements of the Complete
million of the roughly 6 million square feet under construction Communities policy initiative. We expect that there will be
in the region, the largest project being the completion of a 3 an aggressive push to redeveloping and densifying existing
million square foot Amazon facility. Much of this sector has communities, all to add housing and to revitalize. The City’s
been adapted to serve retail warehousing, high tech and Climate Action Plan also supports the efficiencies associated
defense related activities. with urban development.
Hotel: This sector, which is perennially the riskiest in the At the County level, things may get more difficult in an
real estate food chain experienced the perfect storm in 2020. already onerous development climate involving San Diego’s
Historic high occupancy of 90% one year ago dropped to vast unincorporated lands. Perhaps 2021 is the year that
50% today, while rates have declined from $180 to $130 per the newly installed Board of Supervisors revisit how and
night. It’s pretty simple: if we cannot travel, hold conferences how much housing they should accommodate, not a small
or conventions then hotels do not get occupied. However, challenge given the delicate balance between environmental
our forecast is one of optimism, as post-pandemic travel consciousness and economic sustainability.
will dramatically increase during the second half of 2021,
although business, conference and convention demand
will trail. Overall, the hotel sector will take several years to
restabilize.
LOCAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE: LOCAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE:
INVESTOR DEMAND DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Austin 4.47 Raleigh/Durham 4.03
Raleigh/Durham 4.00 Austin 3.75
Denver 3.97 Inland Empire 3.73
Inland Empire 3.79 Phoenix 3.73
Orange County 3.76 Salt Lake City 3.64
Los Angeles 3.73 Orange County 3.55
Phoenix 3.73 Denver 3.51
Salt Lake City 3.72 San Diego-Tijuana 3.39
San Diego-Tijuana 3.70 Los Angeles 3.30
San Francisco 3.53 San Francisco 2.88
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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
The County has dedicated itself to reembark on its carbon A potential new challenge for our region is new growth. While
offset program which, at the very least, will delay the over the overall size of the 3.5 million San Diego region grew by a
10,000 housing units approved two years ago from starting paltry 5,208 persons according to the 2020 U.S. Census, owed
construction. Who knows how much prospective new only to a natural increase of 15,633 persons, while a total net
development a new Board of Supervisors will allow? But if of 10,425 persons moved away. The San Diego region has
last year’s failure of Newland’s large master plan in the form historically grown by 20,000 to 40,000 persons each year.
of a ballot measure is any indication, even the transportation However, the rate of growth has slowed over the past four
rich unincorporated North County lands will remain green. years. This is partially explained by recession, increasing
This will paralyze the development of much needed housing home prices, dearth of new housing starts, and overall high
for the middle class, young family market, whose heads of cost of living.
households are employed in San Diego, and who jam the I-15
However, something else may be at work. San Diego
corridor from their homes in faraway Riverside County in their
competes with other high-cost housing markets. Our
carbon infested commute to their San Diego jobs.
deficiency is that we have historically been good at
The State of California has been considering and gradually incubating companies, then subsequently losing them
implementing new legislation aimed at encouraging more to other markets where the fruits of incubation are
housing, infrastructure, and transit. There is tension between manufactured and brought to market. Local government
new and proposed State legislation and local policy, politics, has been more interested in investing public resources into
and control. There is also concern that these new policies tourism (such as current efforts to expand the Convention
may add to market interference, and the danger of making Center) and the military (“birds in the hand” so to speak) and
things worse, not better. But we do expect to see many new not as aggressive as other regions in promoting the kinds of
legislative proposals. jobs and industry which generate the sustainable, high paying
jobs, or in attracting a richer pool of investment capital.
Of note is the second Port of Entry at Otay Mesa at the
When we keep the firms, we reap the rewards, as with the life
Mexican Border. This and other projects are meant to
science cluster, which mostly incubate and stay.
facilitate movement of people and goods, which heighten the
interdependence of the San Diego/Tijuana greater metropolis Ultimately this could cause a slowdown in our regional
by facilitating more efficient and greater movement along economy. It is important that our political leadership
the various border crossings. It matters because Tijuana and throughout the region’s 18 municipalities, the County and the
the greater Baja region are experience a growth spurt of their numerous special districts recognize the marriage between
own. An overview of the dynamic Tijuana real estate market a strong economy and the need to accommodate new
will be issued as a separate San Diego-Tijuana ULI District growth at a reasonable pace. They can cause change through
Council Special Report. investment which leads and supports land use mandates,
including transportation, communication/connectivity, and
The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is
capital improvements. Each of the projects detailed in this
also considering its “Five Big Moves” program—Complete
report were preceded and catalyzed by some form of public
Corridors, Transit Leap, Mobility Hubs, Flexible Fleets, and
investment. Over time these investments paid off. While 2021
the Next OS which is dedicated to creating policy and funding
represents a fiscal challenge to all, we expect that our policy
to integrate the transportation, infrastructure and housing
leaders will be aspirational, and plan accordingly.
needs of the San Diego Region over the next several decades.
2021 will be the year that the SANDAG Board may move
forward with this plan. What follows is a summary of the trends and
prospects, by sector. It is a report card on
how we are doing. ULI remains committed
to assist policy makers in addressing the
challenges ahead for the San Diego Region.
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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
San Diego Region
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES: 2021 & Beyond
by Eduardo Velasquez, Research Director, San Diego Regional EDC
With the largest military concentration in the world, a Skilled Talent
year-round tourist destination, and home to breakthrough More than anything else, San Diego companies depend
technology companies and top-ranked research on talent. From software engineers to machinists, and
organizations, the San Diego region rebounded from the everything in between, innovation companies are always
Great Recession, more prosperous than many of our peer looking to recruit, retain, and develop the best and the
regions due to our growing innovation cluster. San Diego is brightest. Despite rapid growth and average wages of nearly
globally recognized as a tech and life sciences hub, leading $155,000 per year, many employers report difficulty filling
in everything from medical device manufacturing and positions. Rapid technological and demographic changes
genomics to cybersecurity and 5G wireless communications. are likely to grow existing talent shortages. Hispanics are the
As a result, we’ve seen record inflows of venture capital in region’s fastest growing population and statistically the least
biotech and healthcare as homegrown companies rise to prepared for high-skilled, high-wage jobs; they represent
respond to the global pandemic. The industries that produce only 16% of current degree holders and almost half of today’s
these life-changing and life-saving products and services are seventh graders. The proportion of jobs requiring some form
collectively known as San Diego’s “innovation cluster” – they of post-secondary education is only expected to rise.
provide 10 percent of all jobs and are an important driver of
economic growth. Each job in the innovation cluster supports JOB POSTINGS BY SECTOR, YEAR-AGO CHANGE,
another two jobs elsewhere in our economy. DECEMBER 2020
JOB SHARE BY TRADED CLUSTER, 2019
Source: CA EDD, SDREDC Calculations.
While more prosperous it continues to widen the economic
disparities in ways that threaten our competitiveness and
resilience. Over the last two decades, San Diego’s economy Source: EMSI.
has more than doubled in size. Meanwhile, the typical
household has seen its income increase at roughly half that An increasingly high cost of living had made talent attraction
rate. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of and retention more difficult. The pandemic has made the
households did not earn enough to meet region’s expected region even more unaffordable even as more than 70,000
costs of living. To address the competitiveness challenge people have lost their job. Demand for skilled talent has
caused by rising inequality, we must focus on the building rebounded while the surge of unemployed are primarily
blocks of strong economy: concentrated lower-skill occupations. Solving for this
1. A strong local pipeline of skilled talent. heightened mismatch of skills between employers’ needs and
2. Quality jobs, particularly in small businesses, that enable available workers will be vital in the short term. In the long
economic mobility. run, to meet the demands of San Diego’s future economy, we
3. An affordable region with the infrastructure needed so will need to double the local production of skilled workers.
that households can thrive.
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2021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Quality Jobs region are not thriving, meaning their incomes do not meet
Small businesses (those with fewer than 100 employees) play the typical costs of living. San Diego is roughly 50 percent
a critical role in our economy. They represent 98 percent of more expensive than the average metro area. This is driven in
all firms, employ nearly 60 percent of the total workforce large part by the cost of housing, due to housing production
– double the national average – and are responsible for not keeping pace with employment growth. As a result, San
nearly half of all job growth in the last five years. Despite Diego has the second highest median home price among the
their outsized importance to the region’s economy, many 25 largest metros. However, a lack of transportation options
small businesses report struggling to attract customers and and severe shortages in childcare are also major contributors.
generate new sales and have a lower concentration of quality We must grow household incomes through the development
jobs (those that pay middle-income wages) compared to of more skilled workers and the creation of more quality
their larger peers. The pandemic has hit small businesses jobs, but we must also invest the infrastructure to meet the
especially hard. One in three is currently not operating, demands of our region.
pushing revenues down 32 percent during the year. This The pandemic impacted every facet of life, from the needs
comes after years of slowing new business formation. of working families to how businesses operate. Companies
As we move into recovery, stabilizing small businesses in every industry are rapidly evaluating and changing the
and increasing their resilience is critical to the long-term way they interact with customers, manage supply chains,
health of the economy. We must expand and diversify small and where their employees are physically located. This has
businesses’ access to customers. That can be connecting massive immediate and long-term implications for San
them to international markets and large institutional buyers. Diego’s workforce, as well as regional land use decisions
For more locally-serving businesses, providing them big and infrastructure investment. Nearly the entire urban core
business tools such as digital storefronts and electronic of San Diego is being reimagined over the next decade,
payments processing will help them to recover in the short with multiple large development projects throughout the
term and insulate them from future shocks. There is also region concurrently being planned alongside a new regional
newfound interest in employee ownership, which serves transportation plan. Due to their size and timing, these
to boost employee retention and wealth creation while developments have the potential to transform communities
preserving the business itself after the retirement of its and create thousands of newly thriving households, should
owner. This can be especially impactful for women and they provide more housing, better connect people and jobs,
people of color, where rates of ownership remain low. All and promote transit.
these strategies will help to grow the number of quality jobs
Looking Ahead
in small businesses.
The innovation cluster will lead us out of this pandemic-
Thriving Households driven economic downturn—just like it has from each past
Ensuring San Diego is an attractive and affordable place downturn—but it is not currently accessible to everyone. In
for talent and business is critical to maintaining its regional fact, high-wage jobs have already more than recovered from
competitiveness. However, a majority of households in the the recession. Meanwhile, low-wage jobs ended 2020 down
nearly 30 percent. The stakes could not be higher that we get
SMALL BUSINESSES OPEN, this recovery right. We must rebuild an economy that is more
PERCENT CHANGE FROM JANUARY 2020 resilient than before, so prosperity reaches more people. It
means ensuring that small businesses not only recover but
thrive. It means that everyone—no matter the zip code they
were born in—has access to opportunities and the education
that enables them. It means designing a region where owning
a car is not a requirement to access opportunities. For the
region to fully recover and remain competitive, an inclusive
economic development strategy is needed.
Learn more and get involved at inclusiveSD.org.
Source: Womply.
62021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
How SANDAG’s Five Big Moves Could Reshape Our Region.
Q&A with HASAN IKHRATA
Executive Director, San Diego Association of Governments
Over the next few years
the San Diego region will
reimagine the future
of its transportation.
A year into the pandemic, public decision making is The second strategy is the Transit Leap. Many of our transit
obviously in a very different place than it was in lines exist because a previous generation of leaders found
early 2020. What are your expectations for the San Diego an existing railroad line and decided to make it light rail. It
region over the next few years? doesn’t mean that we did it to best connect communities, or
change the urban form, or change our growth pattern. The
I strongly feel that it is time for San Diegans and our region Transit Leap means that we should be putting transit where
to reimagine the future of our transportation and urban form the demand is. If that means we put it underground, so be it.
throughout San Diego County. It is very challenging for many If it means we put it elevated above the road, so be it.
of our leaders to agree that this is what we need, or at least
there are some who feel that we are fine where we are, but The third is what we call Mobility Hubs. This is where new
a region like San Diego cannot go for a long time without thinking about land use comes in. Consider the Navy NAVWAR
amazing projects, like the ballpark, that catalyze economic site: at this location you can build a transportation hub, you
growth. can build housing, you can build office space, you can make
it walkable and bikeable so that you can go into town, go see
I believe the reimagining of both transportation and land use, a movie or take your family out. The mobility hubs are how
the urban form of the future, the application of technology we are going to change the urban form and how San Diegans
and the future of mobility has to happen. At SANDAG, I am move about the region.
working to advance what we call The Five Big Moves, which is
a multimodal land use strategy with economic development The fourth Big Move is what we call Flexible Fleet. Think of
emphasis. this as following the Uber or Lyft model. You don’t need a big
bus to carry five people around town. We can devise an on
In short, I expect that over the next few years the San Diego demand service in a flexible format, so before leaving home
region will reimagine the future of its transportation. you can order your trip, pay for your trip, and when you walk
Can you provide a bit more detail on the Five Big out your door your ride is ready, and you don’t need to worry.
Moves? This is a change in thinking to start seeing transportation as
The Five Big Moves is a plan made up of five strategies a utility. I believe our world is moving that direction whether
working in unison. You cannot pick just one and leave the we like it or not. Right now in Europe, this is becoming a big
other four behind. business. They treat transportation similar to electricity or
water: you pay a baseline for basic trips and you pay more
The first is Complete Corridors. Every transportation than that if you need more.
corridor in San Diego, for example the I-5, should provide
choices for people. If you choose to drive, you should not The fifth, and probably the most important, is the Next
face any safety or congestion problems. If you choose to take Operating System. This is how technology, apps and on
transit, it should be as fast and convenient as a car. If you demand service is going to link the four strategies above. With
want to bike, you should feel safe with separated bikeways. this we can redefine the future of transportation in California.
72021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
It doesn’t have to be highway against transit, that is a failed This is a moment where the stars are aligning for us, in terms
strategy. Rather than pitting one transportation strategy of public support and civic leadership. I think in some ways
against another, we need to have a strategy that includes that is because we have never been in more of a crisis in
all modes. That is how I hope to reimagine the future of terms of housing and transportation.
transportation in San Diego.
Normally, we are a reactionary society. We wait for something
Do you feel that San Diego is more supportive of to be really bad and then deal with it. The Five Big Moves is
those initiatives today than it was a few years ago? giving an alternate path. San Diegans do not want congestion
And do you feel like you have the political support? like in LA. Today, in comparison to LA, we are fine. But if we
do reach that point it will be ten times harder. We have the
If you had asked me that question before November 3rd, I luxury of time to be able to make this proactive investment
would probably have said no. But today I am more optimistic. now and do it right.
Today we have a board at SANDAG that believes in these Five
Big Moves, especially Mayor Todd Gloria. Supervisor Nathan
Fletcher has become the Chair of the Board of Supervisors
and he believes in our vision.
It seems clear to me that this strategy will reach the finish line
in terms of the support from our leaders. The bigger question
to me is - Will the region be willing to pay $177 billion over the
next 30 years? That decision is up to San Diegans.
If enough people in our region believe in this vision and
believe there is something in it for them, then it will become
reality. I am optimistic given my experience in Los Angeles
where we got four sales tax measures passed. I believe that
next year some time we will be able to go to the voters, and I
believe our region’s leadership is going to take it to the finish
line.
Now, this is a lot of money we’re talking about, but this is
money over three decades. When you invest in infrastructure Blue Line MTS Trolley
you have to do it thinking about many generations to come.
Are we ahead of the curve in comparison to other
municipalities?
Yes. We have support from Chair of the California Senate
Transportation Committee Lorena Gonzalez and Senator Toni
Atkins. I think the Governor’s office and state agencies are
starting to use the Five Big Moves as an example of how the
state should move forward, both with an aggressive climate
action plan but also an aggressive mobility strategy.
Nationally, we recently spoke to the National Association of
Region Councils and had a great response with many regions
wanting to come and get more in-depth information.
82021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Real Estate Outlook
INSIGHTS from District Council Members
by Belinda Sward, Strategic Solutions Alliance
San Diego-Tijuana Emerging Trends in Real Estate Report In real estate, the commercial real estate market, retail and
2021 reflects the views of the San Diego-Tijuana District small businesses, hospitality, travel and tourism, academia,
Council membership. Approximately one-third of total 500 and government and civic entities have all been the hardest
active members (at the time of the report) participated in the hit. Housing has been negatively impacted less so as
online survey and/or were interviewed as part of the research home has become the central hub for multiple aspects of
process for this report. Survey respondents represented life, including working, schooling, exercising, eating and
membership types, age categories, and geographic markets entertaining to a greater degree.
of the District Council membership. Throughout this
Consumers remain highly motivated to move and to purchase
publication, the views of the survey respondents and/or
a home, particularly for greater control of their environment
those interviewed for this report have been presented in the
and a need for more space as home-based activities increase.
graphics.
Housing throughout the region has experienced a strong
Theme: Dealing with Certain Uncertainties surge in demand, as seen in heightened construction activity,
housing sales and above average increases in sales paces,
The San Diego-Tijuana regional economy and real estate
prices, and appreciation rates.
markets have been disrupted and negatively impacted by
COVID-19 and related conditions over the past year. Between In light of this and similar to the ULI national Emerging Trends
social distancing, business closures, travel restrictions, in Real Estate, The San Diego-Tijuana District Council trends
job losses, and fears of getting sick, San Diegans, as most survey began with a question regarding confidence levels
Americans, have faced unprecedented disruption in their of making real estate decisions in today’s environment.
everyday lives. Uncertainties remain regarding the length Approximately 80% of responses from San Diego-Tijuana
and severity of the coronavirus and possibilities of continued indicated they have the confidence to make long-term
regulations, restrictions, and shutdowns, which have had far- decisions, compared to only 44% nationally. Not surprisingly,
ranging economic consequences. ULI members who have been in their professions longer have
somewhat higher confidence to make long-term strategic real
estate decisions.
San San
Diego-Tijuana (80%)
Diego-Tijuana vs. National
(80%) vs. National(44%)(44%)
HaveHave
Confidence to
Confidence
SANMake Long-Term
to Make Long-Term
DIEGO-TIJUANA Decisions
(80%) VS. Decisions
NATIONAL (44%)
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE LONG-TERM DECISIONS
ULI National
ULI National San Diego-Tijuana District
San Diego-Tijuana Council
District Council
Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly
Strongly
Disagree, 6%
Disagree, 6%
Disagree,Disagree,
5% 5% Agree, 10%
Agree, 10% Disagree, 3%
Disagree, 3%
Neither Neither
Agree Agree Strongly
Strongly
Nor Disagree,
Nor Disagree, Agree,Agree,
19% 19%
Disagree,Disagree, 11% 11%
26% 26%
Agree, 34%
Agree, 34%
Neither
NorAgree Nor
Neither Agree Agree,Agree,
61% 61%
Disagree,Disagree,
23% 23%
92021 San Diego Region
High
High
Neutral
Neutral
and
and
Negative
Negative
Impact
Impact
from
from Covid-19
Covid-19 and
and
Real Estate Trends Report
Younger
Younger
Professionals
Professionals
More
More
Negatively
Negatively Impacted.
Impacted.
Impacts of COVID-19 Q2: From
Q2: From
youryour
perspective,
perspective,
howhow
has COVID-19
has COVID-19
uniquely
uniquely
affected
affected
youryour
We asked how COVID-19 has impacted specific
specific
industry
industry
segment
segment
and/or
and/or
youryour
company?
company?
members in regard to their industry 60% 60%
54% 54%
segment and/or their company 50% 50%
49% 49%
45% 45%
specifically. Half of respondents
40% 40%
indicated that COVID-19 has negatively 33% 33%
31% 31%
33% 33%
affected their industry and/or company. 30% 30%
20% 20%
As might be expected the impact was 20% 20% 17% 17%
15% 15%
less pronounced among those with 10% 10%
more than 20 years in their profession. 1% 1% 0% 0%
2% 2%
0% 0%
All Responses
All Responses Less Than
Less 20
Than
Years
20 Years
in Profession
in Profession 20 Years
20 Years
or More
or More
in Profession
in Profession
More
MorePositive
PositiveororNeutral
NeutralImpact
ImpactAmong
AmongThose
Thoseinin
PositivePositive
ImpactImpactNeutralNeutral
ImpactImpactNegative
Negative
ImpactImpactBusiness
Business
Closed Closed
North
NorthCounty,
County,East
EastCounty
Countyand
andTijuana-North
Tijuana-NorthBaja
Baja 3 3
Q2:Q2:
From
From
your
your
perspective,
perspective,
how
how
hashas
COVID-19
COVID-19uniquely
uniquely
affected
affected
your
your
Respondents working in North specific
specific industry
industry segment
segment and/or
and/or your
your company?
company?
and East County as well as 60%60% 57%57%
Tijuana-North Baja indicated 50%50% 47%47%
more positive or neutral impacts 41%41%
43%43%
41%41%
40%40% 37%37% 37%37% 37%37%
to their respective industry and/ 33%33%
30%30%
or company. North and East 30%30%
25%25%
County areas, in particular, are 20%20%
20%20%
18%18%
16%16%
14%14%
experiencing higher for-sale
10%10%
housing growth and activity. 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0%
Central
Central
SanSan
Diego
Diego North
North
County
County EastEast
County
County South
South
County
County Tijuana-North
Tijuana-North
BajaBaja
Positive
Positive
Impact
Impact Neutral
Neutral
Impact
Impact Negative
Negative
Impact
Impact Business
Business
Closed
Closed
and/or
and/or
LossLoss
of Employment
of Employment
Military,
Military,Manufacturing
Manufacturingand
andLife-Science
Life-ScienceLeast
Least 4 4
Impacted
Impactedand
andTourism
TourismMost
MostImpacted
ImpactedByByCovid-19
Covid-19
Q3:
Q3:Please
Pleaserate
ratethe
theimpact
impactofofCOVID-19
COVID-19totoeach
eachofofthe
thefollowing
followingeconomic
economic
drivers
driversininthe
theSan
SanDiego
Diegoregion.
region. Where has COVID-19’s impact
4.90
4.90
500%
500%
450%
450% 4.21
4.21 4.28
4.28 been the greatest among the
400%
400% 3.79
3.79 economic drivers in the San
350%
350% 3.19
3.19 3.30
3.30
Diego region? As shown to the
300%
300%
250%
250%
2.42
2.42 left, respondents rated Military,
200%
200% Manufacturing and Life-Science
150%
150% as least impacted and as can be
98%
98%
83%
83% 82%
82%
100%
100%
55%
55%
38% 37%
38% 42%
42%
65%
65% expected Tourism having been
50%
50% 31%
31% 25% 37%
25% 35%
35% 23%
23% 24%
24%
0%0%
14%
14% 11%
11% 12%
5%5% 12% 4%4% 14%
14%
0%0%2%2% the most impacted by COVID-19.
Military
Military Manufacturing
Manufacturing Life-Science
Life-Science Government
Government University
UniversitySystem
System Cross-border
Cross-border Tourism
Tourism
Economy
Economy
NoNo
or or
LowLow
Impact
Impact Some
Some
Impact
Impact Significant
Significant
Impact
Impact Weighted
WeightedAverage
Average
5 5
In addition to challenges, respondents rated a list of opportunities from COVID-19 in the San Diego region. Greater adoption of
Technology, the Reshuffling of Retail Space, and the Reimagined Use of Streets and Outdoor Spaces were ranked as being the
greatest areas of opportunity.
We should note that the reshuffling of commercial office and retail space including renegotiating current lease rates are both
trends highlighted by our office and retail experts in this report.
102021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Capital Markets
According to our members, real estate capital markets returned to some level of normalcy by the middle of summer 2020.
In regard to the availability of various sources of debt and lending capital for real estate in 2020 as compared to 2019, they
identified the greatest availability and increase in debt and lending capital is in Government Sponsored Enterprises and
Greatest
Greatest
CommercialIncrease
Increase
Banks as mostininrestrictive.
Debt/Lending
Debt/LendingCapital: Capital:Government
Government
Sponsored
SponsoredEnterprises;
Enterprises;Commercial
CommercialBanks
BanksMost
MostRestrictive
Restrictive
Q6:Q6:
HowHow
hashas
thethe
availability
availability Debt/Lending
of of Debt/Lending
Capital
Capitalforfor
real
real
estate
estate Approximately 52% of respondents
investment
investment
from
fromthethe
following
following
source
source
types
types
changed
changed
in in
2020
2020versus
versus
2019?
2019?
300%
300% 2.882.88
believe debt and lending capital
2.812.81 2.772.77 2.742.74 2.722.72
2.642.64 2.592.59 will be in balance for real estate
250%
250%
development and redevelopment
200%
200% in the San Diego region in 2021.
150%
150%
In addition to debt and lending
100%
100% capital, we asked about the
56%56% 55%55% 54%54% 57%57%
50%50%
51%51%
29%29%
51%51%
34%34% 34%34% 35% 35% 37% 37% 43%43%
43%43% availability of various sources
21%21% 28%28% 15%15% 15%15% 14%14%
0% 0%
11%11% 11%11% 6% 6% of equity capital for real estate
Banks in 2020 as compared to 2019.
Greatest Government
Availability
Government NonbankNonbank Financial
of Equity Capital: Companies
Financial Debt Debt
Funds
Funds Mortgage
Mortgage REITS
REITS
Private
Insurance
Insurance
Equity/
Securitized
Securitized Commericial
Commericial
Banks
Greatest
Greatest Sponsored
Availability
Sponsored
Availability
Institutions
Institutions
ofofEquityEquityCapital: Capital:Private Private
Companies
Equity/
Equity/
Lenders/CMBS
Lenders/CMBS
As shown right, respondents
Opportunity/Hedge Funds, Private Investors and Private REITS indicated they believe the greatest
Enterprises
Enterprises
Opportunity/Hedge
Opportunity/Hedge Funds,
Funds,Private PrivateInvestors Investorsand andPrivate PrivateREITS REITS
Large
Large
Increase/Less
Increase/Less
Restricted
Restricted Neutral
Neutral Large
Large
Decline/More
Decline/More
Restricted
Restricted Weighted
Weighted
Average
Average
Q8: How has the availability of Equity Capital for real estate availability and increase in
Q8:
Q8: HowHow has
has thethe availability
availability of ofEquity
Equity Capital
investment from the following source types changed in 2020 versus 2019?Capital forforreal
real
estate
estate 8 8
investment
2.88
investmentfrom fromthe thefollowing
followingsource
sourcetypes typeschanged
changedinin2020 2020versus
versus2019?
2019? equity capital is in Private Equity/
300%
300%
300% 2.88
2.88 2.71
2.71
2.71
2.71
2.71
2.71
2.61 2.59 2.52
Opportunity/Hedge Funds, Private
250% 2.61
2.61 2.59
2.59
250%
250%
2.52
2.52 Investors and Private REITS.
200%
200%
200% Expectations for 2021 indicate
150%
150%
150%
higher oversupply of equity capital
100% as compared to debt and lending
100%
100% 58%
50%
49% 47%
33% 58%
58%
30%
49%
37%
54%
54%
54%35%
44% 42% capital. Even so, almost 50% of
25% 49% 26%
49% 20% 47%
47% 49%
49%
14% 44%
44%
42%
42%
50%
50%
25%
25% 26%
26% 20%
20%
33%
33% 12%
12%
12%
30%
30% 14%
14%
14%
37%
37% 11%
11%
11%
35%
35%
14%
14%
respondents believe the equity
0%
0%0% Private Private Local Investors Private REITS Institutional Pulbic-Equity REITS Foreign Investorss capital markets will be in balance
Equity/Opportunity/Hedge
Private
Private Private
Private
Local
Local
Investors
Investors Private
Private
REITS
REITS Investors/Pension
Institutional Funds
Institutional Pulbic-Equity
Pulbic-Equity
REITS
REITS Foreign
Foreign
Investorss
Investorss
Funds
Equity/Opportunity/Hedge
Equity/Opportunity/Hedge Investors/Pension
Investors/Pension Funds
Funds in 2021.
Funds
Funds
Large Increase/Less Restricted Neutral Large Decline/More Restricted Weighted Average
Large
Large
Increase/Less
Increase/Less
Restricted
Restricted Neutral
Neutral Large
Large
Decline/More
Decline/More Restricted
Restricted Weighted
WeightedAverage
Average
10
1010
Investment by Property Type Greatest
GreatestInvestment
Investmentand
andDevelopment
DevelopmentProspects:
Prospects:Single-
Single-
& by Region Family
FamilyHousing,
Housing,Multifamily
Multifamilyand
andIndustrial/Distribution
Industrial/Distribution
To provide an outlook by property Q10:
Q10:Please
Pleaserate
ratethe
theinvestment
investmentandanddevelopment
developmentprospects
prospectsinin2021
2021ininthe
the
type, we asked survey respondents San
SanDiego
Diegoregion
regionfor
forthe
theeach
eachofofthe
thefollowing
followingland
landuses.
uses.
500%
500%
to provide insights regarding 450%
450%
4.14
4.14 4.10
4.10 4.08
4.08
investment and development 400%
400%
prospects among various land 350%
350% 3.24
3.24
uses in 2021 in the San Diego 300%
300%
250%
250%
region. Overwhelmingly and 200%
200%
2.13
2.13
1.83
1.83 1.77
1.77
consistent with national trends, 150%
150%
respondents indicated they 100%
100% 77%
77% 76%
76% 74%
74% 71%
71%
85%
85% 86%
86%
35%
35% 39%
39%
believe that Single-Family Housing, 50%
50%
13%
13% 10%
10% 17%7%
17% 7% 18%8%
18% 8%
26%
26%
3%
3%
26%
26%
3% 12%
3%12% 7%7%
7% 7%
0%
0%
Multifamily and Industrial/ Single-family
Single-familyHousing
Housing Multifamily
MultifamilyHousing
Housing Industrial/Distribution
Industrial/Distribution Mixed-Use
Mixed-Use Office
Office Retail
Retail Hotels/Entertainment
Hotels/Entertainment
Distribution have the greatest
investment and development Significant
SignificantOpportunity
Opportunity Neutral
Neutral No
NoororLow
LowOpportunity
Opportunity Weighted
WeightedAverage
Average
potential over other land uses. 1212
112021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
Greatest
GreatestDevelopment
DevelopmentOpportunities
Opportunitiesinin2021:
2021:Central
Central
San
SanDiego,
Diego,South
SouthCounty
Countyand
andNorth
NorthCounty
County Geographic markets that represent
Q11:
Q11:
Please
Please
provide
provide
your
your
opinion
opinion
of of
realreal
estate
estate
development
development
opportunities
opportunities
in 2021 in each
in 2021 of of
in each thethe
following submarkets.
following submarkets.
the best opportunities for
400%
400% 3.863.86 3.793.79 development include Central San
3.583.58 3.573.57
350%
350%
3.213.21
Diego (City of San Diego and Central
3.093.09
300%
300% Business District, and cities of La
250%
250% Jolla and Del Mar), South County
200%
200% (cities of National City, Chula Vista,
150%
150% Imperial Beach, Coronado, and
100%
100%
three communities of the City of San
64%64%
50%50%
58%58%
32%32%
51%51%
40%40%
53%53%
29%29%
42%42%
31%31%
27%27% 34%34% 38%38%
28%28%
Diego: Otay Mesa, Nestor and San
26%26% 18%18%
0% 0%
10%10% 10%10% 9% 9%
Ysidro.), and North County (North of
Central
Central
San San
Diego
Diego South
South
County
County North
North
County
County
Inland
Inland North
North
County
County
Coastal
Coastal EastEast
County
County Tijuana-North
Tijuana-North
BajaBaja Del Mar/Highway 56, both coastal
Multiple
Multiple
Development
Development
Opportunities
Opportunities Neutral
Neutral No or
NoLow
or Low
Development
Development
Opportunities
Opportunities Weighted
Weighted
Average
Average and inland).
Buy:
Buy:Residential
Residentialand
andIndustrial;
Industrial;Hold:
Hold:Mixed-Use,
Mixed-Use, 13 13
Hotel/Entertainment
Hotel/Entertainmentand andOffice;
Office;Sell:
Sell:Retail
Retail
As part of the outlook by property Q12:
Q12:
Please
Please
indicate
indicate
your
your
appropriate
appropriate
recommendation
recommendation- Buy,
- Buy,
HoldHold
or Sell
or Sell
- -
by asset
by asset
class
class
youyou
would
would
givegive
for for
thethe
SanSan
Diego
Diego
region
region
in 2021.
in 2021.
type, we asked survey respondents 70% 70%
62% 62%
60% 60%
to provide Buy, Hold, Sell 60% 60%
55% 55%
52% 52%
recommendations for each land 50% 50%
51% 51%
43% 43%
43% 43%
use type in 2021 in the San Diego 40% 40%
35% 35%
region. 30% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29%
30% 30%
The greatest Buy opportunities 20% 20%
19% 19%
15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14%
included Residential and 9% 9%
11% 11%
10% 10%
Industrial. As shown below, Hold
recommendations included Mixed- Buy:
Buy:Senior
Seniorand
0% 0% andAffordable
AffordableHousing;
Housing;Hold:
Hold:Rental
Rental
Housing,
Housing,Single-Family
Single-Familyand
andFor-Sale
For-SaleMultifamily
Multifamily
Residential
Residential Industrial/Distribution
Industrial/Distribution Mixed-Use
Mixed-Use Hotel/Entertainment
Hotel/Entertainment OfficeOffice RetailRetail
Use, Hotel/Entertainment and Buy Buy
Hold Hold
Sell Sell
Office. Recommendations for Retail
included Hold or Sell, depending Q13:Q13:
Please
Please
indicate
indicate
youryour
appropriate
appropriate
recommendation
recommendation- Buy,
- Buy,
HoldHold
or Sell
or Sell
- -
14 14
upon retail type, situation, and by residential property
by residential typetype
property youyou
would givegive
would for for
thethe
SanSan
Diego region
Diego in 2021.
region in 2021.
70% 70%
location. 60% 60% 56% 56%
54% 54%
We asked specifically about Buy, 50% 50% 47% 47%
43% 43%
41% 41%
Hold and Sell recommendations 40% 40%
40% 40% 40% 40%
36% 36%
40% 40%
39% 39%
by residential type. As shown, 30% 30%
most recommendations include 20% 20%
21% 21% 21% 21%
Buy or Hold, with Senior Housing 12% 12%
10% 10% 6% 6%
and Affordable Housing the 4% 4%
0% 0%
greatest Buy opportunities. SeniorSenior
Housing
Housing Affordable
Affordable
Housing
Housing RentalRental
Housing
Housing Single-Family
Single-Family
HomesHomes For-Sale
For-Sale
Multifamily
Multifamily
Buy Buy
Hold Hold
Sell Sell
15 15
122021 San Diego Region Real Estate Trends Report
More About Survey Participants
Respondents closely resemble District Council members by length of time in profession.
Respondents Ages of respondents exactly match those of the
A member 20 years or less 45% San Diego-Tijuana District Council membership.
More than 20 years 55% Under age 35 18%
Age 35 to 44 20%
Members-at-large Age 45 to 54 24%
A member 20 years or less 46% Age 55 to 64 24%
More than 20 years 54% Age 65 & older 14%
We had good representation from each of the Lastly, participants and interviewees represent a
geographical regions of San Diego County with some wide range of industry experts, including developers,
representation from Tijuana. These are the geographic consultants and advisors, architects, capital providers
areas where the respondents work. and investors, property managers, urban planners,
lenders, and other.
1%
24% 23%
North County
(Coastal & Inland)
35% 18%
Central San Diego
12% 10%
8%
South County
East County
31% 12% 5%
17%
Tijuana-North Baja
Work outside the region
4%
op e e
sF y
chi rs/
r ok r s
r ac r s
er s
blic
vel tat
ic e i s o r
rs
irm
ts
er s
s
& B nage
ont ilde
tor
/Ar nne
te c
De al Es
end
/Pu
er v Ad v
& C eb u
ers Pla
a
er L
en t
ty M
Re
o r S te
m
ine an
nm
a
Ho
O th
t
p er
E ng Ur b
l Es
ver
k&
Pr o
Rea
Go
Ban
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