Q4FY21: Result Preview - SECTOR UPDATE - Edelweiss
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India Equity Research Media April 9, 2021 Q4FY21: Result Preview SECTOR UPDATE Braving headwinds For media at large, Q4FY21 began on a positive note with some movie releases and steady advertising. Television ad demand increased modestly and would help broadcasters record a decent quarter. We expect revenues for ZEEL and Sun TV to grow 4.9% YoY and 7.5% YoY, respectively. Multiplexes logged a QoQ uptick in footfall, and we expect PVR and INOX to post revenues of INR1.5bn (-76.7% YoY) and INR820mn (-77.9% YoY), respectively. However, overall occupancy remains low and would lead to EBITDA loss. Uncertainties over movie releases and the spike in covid-19 cases would blight multiplexes’ prospects in the near term. Our top picks are Sun TV and ZEEL. Broadcasters: Modest performance With the advertising environment improving sequentially, we estimate ZEEL’s ad revenue would grow ~6% YoY and subscription revenue would grow ~12% YoY owing to modest digital subscription growth and absence of music revenue in base. Overall, we expect modest revenue growth of 4.9% YoY, along with a 25.8% EBITDA margin for Q4FY21. We expect SUN TV's ad revenue to remain flat YoY as local advertising remains weak (9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21) along with 9% YoY subscription growth led by an 8% uptick in the DTH segment. Overall, for Sun TV, we expect revenue to grow by ~7.5% YoY along with a marginal EBITDA decline of ~-1.1% YoY Multiplexes: Occupancy and movie delay woes The spurt in covid-19 cases in pockets towards the end of Q4FY21 has further hurt occupancy for the quarter, which began on a good note with a decent response to movies such as Master and Roohi. There were delays in release of some major films due to the 50% occupancy cap in the quarter initially. Footfall mostly picked up in south as regional releases garnered a better response. But with overall occupancy low and scanty releases, we expect revenue to slide -76.7% YoY for PVR and -77.9% YoY for INOX, respectively. Similarly, we expect them to report EBITDA losses of ~INR604mn and ~INR695mn, respectively Outlook: Broadcasters likely to fare much better in near term We expect broadcasters to fare much better than multiplexes in the near term. With covid-19 cases increasing across the country, we expect footfalls in multiplexes to be abysmal, not to mention scanty movie releases. Meanwhile, producers are likely to hold back on releases, leading to further content supply risk. In addition, uncertainty over rental payments for FY22 remains an overhang. Factoring the above, we revise down FY22E revenue/EBITDA 45%/58.9% for PVR and 45%/55% for INOX. On the other hand, broadcasters are likely to benefit from advertising aggression by FMCG and e-commerce businesses. With lockdown being imposed in pockets, TV viewership is also likely to increase. We expect the ad environment to improve over coming quarters owing to higher advertising demand (IPL, summer season, lockdowns) and improving ad rates. Our top picks are SUN TV and ZEEL. Abneesh Roy Prateek Barsagade +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 4063 5407 Abneesh.Roy@edelweissfin.com Prateek.Barsagade@edelweissfin.com Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview Q4FY21 Media results preview snapshot Stock (INR mn) Q1FY21E Q1FY20 YoY (%) Q4FY20 QoQ (%) ZEE Revenue 20,460 19,511 4.9 27,294 (25.0) EBITDA 5,279 (2,839) NM 7,157 (26.2) Adjusted Profit 3,657 (4,093) NM 4,579 (20.1) Other income 300 407 276 Tax 1,232 (372) 1,937 EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 (14.5) 26.2 Sun TV Revenue 7,900 7,352 7.5 9,723 (18.8) EBITDA 5,325 5,035 5.8 6,007 (11.4) Adjusted Profit 3,635 2,500 45.4 4,418 (17.7) Other income 550 570 621 Tax 1,225 759 1,508 EBITDA margin (%) 67.4 68.5 61.8 PVR Revenue 1,500 6,451 (76.7) 454 230.4 EBITDA (695) 1,727 NM (781) NM Reported Profit (3,025) (746) NM (488) NM Other income 350 167 2,747 Tax - 44 (241) EBITDA margin (%) (46.3) 26.8 (172.1) INOX Leisure Revenue 820 3,716 (77.9) 149 451.1 EBITDA (604) 1,100 NM (645) NM Reported Profit (1,649.4) (821.5) NM (1,025.0) NM Other income 300 48 607 Tax - 615 (343) EBITDA margin (%) (73.7) 29.6 (433.7) Source: Edelweiss Research 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview ZEE Entertainment Enterprise With advertising demand improving sequentially, we expect Q4FY21 to be a decent quarter for ZEE Entertainment, primarily led by improving ad rates and volumes. Though market share improved for Hindi GEC, loss of share in markets such as Marathi, Bangla and Tamil could prompt a change in the programming strategy. For Q4FY21, we expect advertising revenues to increase ~6% YoY, riding the broad- based economic recovery and resumption of television viewership across markets. We expect subscription revenue to grow ~12% owing to modest growth in linear/digital subscription and impact from absence of music business revenue in the base. Programming cost is likely to inch up given the resumption in programming and introduction of new shows. Overall, we expect 4.9% YoY revenue growth for Q4FY21, along with a 25.8% EBITDA margin for the quarter. ZEEL | Q4FY21 result preview (INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Revenue 20,460 19,511 4.9 27,294 (25.0) EBITDA 5,279 (2,839) NM 7,157 (26.2) Adjusted Profit 3,657 (4,093) NM 4,579 (20.1) Other income 300 407 276 Tax 1,232 (372) 1,937 EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 (14.5) 26.2 Source: Edelweiss Research Zee entertainment | Trends at a glance ZEEL Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E EBITDA margin% 31.9 34.2 34.8 28.1 32.9 32.7 27.6 (14.5) 16.8 18.1 26.7 25.8 Ad revenue growth% 18.6 22.7 21.7 16.0 3.6 1.2 (15.8) (14.7) (64.5) (26.3) 4.0 6.0 Subscription revenue growth % 12.2 26.0 28.6 3.9 46.8 26.8 21.7 40.7 6.2 11.0 15.0 12.0 Source: Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 3
Q4FY21: Result Preview Sun TV Network We expect SUN TV Network to register a modest performance in Q4FY21. Given the challenges to ad revenues from local advertising and aggression by other television broadcasters in key markets, we expect SUN TV's ad revenues to remain flat YoY (9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21). For subscription, we expect SUN TV to register 9% YoY growth led by an 8% uptick in DTH subscription revenue. In absence of any movie releases or the IPL tournament during the quarter, we expect margins to improve sequentially. Overall, we expect SUN TV's revenue growth to be broadly 7.5% YoY along with a marginal YoY decline in EBITDA and YoY growth of 45.4% in PAT (primarily owing to high amortisation charge in the base). Sun TV Network | Q4FY21 result preview (INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Revenue 7,900 7,352 7.5 9,723 (18.8) EBITDA 5,325 5,035 5.8 6,007 (11.4) Adjusted Profit 3,635 2,500 45.4 4,418 (17.7) Other income 550 570 621 Tax 1,225 759 1,508 EBITDA margin (%) 67.4 68.5 61.8 Source: Edelweiss Research Sun TV | Trends at a glance Sun TV Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E EBITDA margin% 65.6 73.9 73.8 68.4 62.0 58.9 71.2 68.5 68.7 66.4 62.3 67.4 Ad revenue growth% 18.6 22.7 21.7 16.0 3.6 1.2 (15.8) (14.7) (64.5) (26.3) 4.0 0.5 Subscription revenue growth% 15.3 22.2 24.1 1.7 27.2 16.8 17.7 26.8 17.7 7.6 4.2 9.0 Source: Edelweiss Research 4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview PVR While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes. Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India, leading to sequential improvement in ATP and SPH for the quarter for PVR. Given low occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect PVR to register an EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect PVR to report ~INR1,500mn in revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR6,954mn in Q4FY21. PVR | Q4FY21 result preview (INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Revenue 1,500 6,451 (76.7) 454 230.4 EBITDA (695) 1,727 NM (781) NM Reported Profit (3,025) (746) NM (488) NM Other income 350 167 2,747 Tax - 44 (241) EBITDA margin (%) (46.3) 26.8 (172.1) Source: Edelweiss Research Furthermore, factoring in the loss of business for two months, impact of fixed cost, customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in the initial phase and potential bunching of movie releases, we have cut FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and 58.9% respectively. PVR | Estimates revision FY20 YTD21 FY21E FY22E FY23E (INR mn) Actual Actual Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Revenue 34,144 986 4,158 2,486 (40.2) 35,033 19,268 (45.0) 42,268 42,268 - growth (%) 11% -91.9 -78.1 -86.9 1564.3 674.7 20.7 192.3 EBITDA 10,766 (2,809) (2,940) (3,504) NM 12,280 5,053 (58.9) 14,878 14,878 - growth (%) 84% -232.6 -117.0 -158.7 -1308.7 -244.2 21.2 257.6 PAT 264 (4,613) (7,462) (9,027) NM 980 (4,427) NM 2,299 2,299 - Source: Edelweiss Research PVR | Trends at a glance PVR Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E EBITDA margin% 19.7 17.5 19.5 19.2 31.6 32.7 33.6 26.8 NM NM NM NM Ad revenue Growth% 6.5 13.2 28.9 22.4 27.6 15.6 9.1 (22.0) NM NM NM NM Source: Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 5
Q4FY21: Result Preview INOX Leisure While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes. Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India, leading to a sequential uptick in ATP and SPH for Q4FY21. Given sub-optimal occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect INOX to register an EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect INOX to report ~INR820mn in revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR604mn in Q4FY21. INOX Leisure | Q4FY21 result preview Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Revenue 820 3,716 (77.9) 149 451.1 EBITDA (604) 1,100 NM (645) NM Reported Profit (1,649) (822) NM (1,025) NM Other income 300 48 607 Tax - 615 (343) EBITDA margin (%) (73.7) 29.6 (433.7) Source: Edelweiss Research Furthermore, factoring in continued headwinds such as loss of business for two months, impact of fixed cost, and customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in the initial phase, we are cutting FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and 55% respectively. INOX Leisure | Estimates revision FY20 YTD21 FY21E FY22E FY23E (INR mn) Actual Actual Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Revenue 18,974 155 2,165 975 (53.7) 19,249 10,587 (45.0) 21,323 21,323 - growth (%) 12% -98.7 -88.6 -94.9 814.4 788.0 10.8 146.3 EBITDA 5,968 (1,322) (1,006) (1,926) NM 6,372 2,870 (55.0) 7,085 7,085 - growth (%) 93% -162.4 -117.0 -132.3 -727.2 -249.0 11.2 247.1 PAT 150 (2,440) (4,039) (4,189) NM 600 (2700) NM 838 838 - Source: Edelweiss Research INOX Leisure | Trends at a glance INOX Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E EBITDA margin% 20.1 12.3 19.3 20.3 30.4 32.3 32.9 29.6 NM NM NM NM Ad revenue growth% 19.8 17.8 38.2 28.4 17.1 5.8 2.2 (19.8) NM NM NM NM Source: Edelweiss Research 6 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview Rental agreement negotiations With footfalls at multiplexes far below pre-covid levels and a surge in covid cases being reported in pockets, particularly in bigger cities, multiplexes will face uncertain cash flows going ahead. Up until now, rental agreements had been renegotiated, which allowed multiplexes a breather in the present rough weather. But, landlords may be running out of patience/financial tolerance after taking a hit for the whole year. Landlords could lean towards higher revenue share in future agreements. We continue to await more clarity from multiplex players. Possible movie release delays Despite many states now allowing 100% occupancy, overall occupancy and footfalls have been far lower than pre-Covid levels and remained very low during the quarter. There were few major releases: Roohi and Master. But most other movies received less than enthusiastic response. The inertia in footfalls has been further aggravated by increasing Covid cases in big cities towards the quarter-end. This may result in caps by states. This has also led to some major movies being postponed such as Sooryavanshi and Bunti aur Babli 2. Some highly anticipated Hollywood productions such as Black Widow and Eternals have been postponed. Given there is not much improvement in occupancy and Covid caseload, It is likely that other major releases in the coming quarter could get postponed. This can bunch up movie releases, which would further affect box office collections. Release dates and status of movies Movie Date Status Roohi 11-Mar-21 Released Time To Dance 12-Mar-21 Released Fauji Calling 12-Mar-21 Released Mumbai Saga 19-Mar-21 Released Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar 19-Mar-21 Released Flight 19-Mar-21 Released No Means No 22-Mar-21 Postponed Haathi Mere Saathi 26-Mar-21 Postponed Saina 26-Mar-21 Released Koi Jaane Na 26-Mar-21 Released Bunty Aur Babli 2 23-Apr-21 Postponed Thalaivi 23-Apr-21 No announcement Chehre 30-Apr-21 No announcement Sooryavanshi 30-Apr-21 Postponed Radhe 13-May-21 No announcement Satyameva jayate 2 14-May-21 No announcement Toofan 21-May-21 No announcement Bell bottom 28-May-21 No announcement 83 the film 04-Jun-21 No announcement Source: Industry, Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 7
Q4FY21: Result Preview Advertising: Rocky year behind; hopeful for the future According to the EY advertising report, advertising and event spends took a hit of 29% in CY20—the highest one-year drop in the history of advertising expenditure. There was only a modest improvement in advertisement rates and volumes for broadcasters, and cinema advertising remained negligible. Advertising spend across media (INR bn) CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E Television 320 251 304 Print 206 122 152 Events 83 27 53 OOH 39 16 22 Radio 31 14 23 Cinema 8 2 5 Traditional total 687 432 559 Digital 191 191 234 Total 878 623 793 Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Television Advertising: Regional pull and hopeful of volume recovery The pandemic gave a strong push to the average time Indians spent on TV. Overall in CY20, the time spent increased by 7% over 2019 levels. The rise in viewership had largely stabilized by Dec-20. But the increase in viewership did not translate to ad volumes for most part of the year. Though ad volumes have not reached pre-covid- 19 levels, the last part of the year marked a modest increase in ad volumes. Viewership change and corresponding ad volume change for CY20 (% change) Viewership Change vs 2019 Ad volume change vs 2019 Pre Covid (week 1-10) -6% -3% During lockdown (week 11-26) 18% -32% After lockdown (week 27-37) 14% 5% Year end (week 38-52) 6% 20% Total for the year 9% -3% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Going ahead for broadcasters, we expect that aggressive marketing and new launches by FMCG, pharma and e-commerce companies to continue to improve ad volumes. During the pandemic, ad spends were dominated by household products, hygiene products and two new entrant to the list of top advertisers - entertainment companies and E-commerce players. With the resurgence in Covid cases, the increase in online ordering, rising social media commerce and people spending more time on screen, we can expect these categories to continue to increase their spends. We expect FMCG, durables and e-commerce players to focus the bulk of their advertising budget on TV. 8 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview Television ad spends across Industries Ad spend across Industries CY 2019 CY 2020 Growth FMCG 49% 51% -9% E-Com 5% 11% 95% Consumer Durables 12% 8% 44% Telecom 7% 6% -29% Auto 5% 4% -28% BFSI 1% 4% 193% Education 3% 3% -17% Real estate 2% 2% 1% Others 16% 11% -41% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Top advertisers by product category 2019 2020 Rank Categories %Share Categories %Share 1 Toilet soap 7% Toilet soap 7% 2 Shampoo 3% Ecomm/entertainment 4% 3 Floor Cleaners 3% Toothpastes 4% 4 Washing powder 3% Shampoo 4% 11 Toothpastes 3% Washing powder 4% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research In 2020, regional channels dominated the screens compared with national channels, both in terms of viewership increase and ad volumes. Regional channels received 27% more advertising compared with national channels. Regional channels also logged more than 50% of viewership. Almost all major regional languages revelled in a good jump in viewership, barring Kannada and Marathi, which marked a negligible decline. English channels, on the other hand, saw a decline. Advertisement volumes by channel type Ad volume (in Hours per channel) National 526 Regional 666 Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 9
Q4FY21: Result Preview Though presently Hindi GEC, movies and news are the top ad volume contributors, going ahead, we can expect more advertisement spends towards regional channels. This bodes well for ZEEL, which has a widespread regional language portfolio. The company has also expressed that it would focus new investments towards regional content, particularly Tamil, Bangla, Marathi and Punjabi. This will help ZEEL take advantage of the shifting ad spends to regional language channels. Viewership change in CY2020 versus 2019 by Language (% change) Viewership Change vs 2019 Gujrathi 57% Multi-language 27% Punjabi 26% Bangla 14% Tamil 12% Malyalam 11% Hindi 11% Oriya 9% Telugu 5% Kannada -1% Marathi -2% English -28% Others -59% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Top 10 genres by ad volume share 2019 2020 Rank Genre %Share Genre %Share 1 Hindi Movie 10% Hindi Movie 11% 2 Hindi News 6% Hindi News 6% 3 Hindi GEC 5% Hindi GEC 6% 4 Music 5% Tamil GEC 4% 5 Tamil GEC 4% Music 4% 6 Bengali GEC 4% Hindi regional news 4% 7 Bengali news 3% Bengali news 3% 8 Hindi regional news 3% Bengali GEC 3% 9 Malyalam GEC 3% Malyalam GEC 3% 10 Telugu GEC 3% Telugu news 3% 11 Others(68) 54% Others(69) 55% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research 10 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview Digital Advertising: Withstanding the storm Though traditional advertising took a hit due to the pandemic, digital advertising saw a modest increase. During 2020, the average screen time of Indians rose. Indians spent on an average 4.6 hours on their phone overtaking South Korea and China to take the third place for hours spent on phone. In December 2020, India crossed 700 million in broadband connections while smartphone users touched 448 million. Advertisers took to digital media to take advantage of the increased screen time and capture attention. As per EY media & entertainment report and Dentsu advertising report, Digital media is the only segment which logged growth during CY20. Most advertising spends in digital medium came from the usual e-commerce players and consumer durables. We expect this trend to continue. Digital advertising spend across industries Digital Ad spend across Industries (% Share) CY 2019 CY 2020 Growth FMCG 27% 14% -13% E-Com 19% 24% 5% Consumer Durables 11% 17% 6% Telecom 9% 13% 4% Auto 7% 6% -1% BFSI 10% 10% 0% Education 6% 5% -1% Real estate 5% 2% -3% Others 6% 9% 3% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Present and future relative landscape During the year, FMCG continued to be the top spender relative to ad spends by other sectors. But it was closely followed by e-commerce players, which ramped up marketing to take advantage of the uptrend in online spending. In CY20, five sectors spent more than 30% of their advertising budget on digital media. Looking forward, we expect digital advertising to grow faster than traditional means, while television would continue to capture the major share of ad spends backed by expenditure from FMCG and consumer durables. While many advertisers across industries decided to rely on digital media in CY20, Television remained the preferred medium for FMCG and consumer durables companies. Overall, we expect continued growth in digital ad spends and ad spends in television to return to pre-covid levels before other traditional media channels. The EY Market survey has also indicated that the marketing community expects ad spends to return by CY22. Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 11
Q4FY21: Result Preview Overall ad spend by industry Ad spend across Industries Ad spend (INR bn) % share FMCG 1155 21% E-Com 979 17% Consumer Durables 575 10% Telecom 512 9% Auto 409 7% BFSI 284 5% M&E 254 5% Retail 116 3% Others 1314 23% Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research Industry ad spend share across media Ad spend across various media TV Print Digital Radio Cinema OOH FMCG 64% 11% 19% 2% 1% 4% Auto 29% 39% 25% 3% 1% 3% E-commerce 45% 14% 39% 1% 1% 1% Retail 19% 47% 23% 1% 1% 5% Telecom 50% 6% 40% 3% 1% 3% BFSI 16% 19% 57% 6% 1% 3% M&E 19% 37% 32% 5% 1% 5% Consumer Durables 35% 15% 45% 1% 1% 4% Others 34% 48% 10% 6% 1% 2% Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research Ad spend across media Ad spend across various media (INR bn) TV Print Digital Radio Cinema OOH FMCG 739.2 127.05 219.45 23.1 11.55 46.2 Auto 283.91 381.81 244.75 29.37 9.79 29.37 E-commerce 258.75 80.5 224.25 5.75 5.75 5.75 Retail 97.28 240.64 117.76 5.12 5.12 25.6 Telecom 3450 3450 3450 3450 3450 3450 BFSI 45.44 53.96 161.88 17.04 2.84 8.52 M&E 48.26 93.98 81.28 12.7 2.54 12.7 Consumer Durables 40.6 17.4 52.2 1.16 1.16 4.64 Others 446.76 630.72 131.4 78.84 13.14 26.28 Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research Expected change in media ad spend share (% share) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E Television 40 40 39 41 40 39 Print 34 31 29 25 23 21 Radio 4 4 4 3 3 3 Cinema 2 2 2 1 1 1 OOH 6 6 6 3 3 3 Digital 15 17 20 28 30 34 Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research 12 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview Expected growth in CY21 and time to recovery by media (INR bn) 2019 2020 2021E Recovery to pre-Covid level Television 320 251 304 2022 Print 206 122 152 2025+ Events 83 27 53 2023 OOH 39 16 22 2024 Radio 31 14 23 2024+ Cinema 8 2 5 2023 Traditional total 687 432 559 2023 Digital 191 191 234 N/A Total 878 623 793 2023 Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Marketing community expectations for CY22 Expected change in Ad spending Overall Traditional Increase over 10% 46% 27% Increase under 10% 18% 29% No major change 20% 20% Reduce under 10% 5% 10% Reduce over 10% 10% 14% Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 13
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The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong and is/are not licensed to carry on regulated activities in Hong Kong and does not / do not hold themselves out as being able to do so. Copyright 2009 Edelweiss Research (Edelweiss Securities Ltd). All rights reserved. ADITYA Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED, ou=SERVICE, Aditya Narain 2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e0c8 9e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02, Head of Research NARAIN postalCode=400011, st=MAHARASHTRA, serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f2 0bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20, Aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com cn=ADITYA NARAIN Date: 2021.04.09 15:08:24 +05'30' Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 15
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