Q4FY21: Result Preview - SECTOR UPDATE - Edelweiss

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India Equity Research          Media      April 9, 2021

Q4FY21: Result Preview
SECTOR UPDATE

                                                         Braving headwinds
                                                         For media at large, Q4FY21 began on a positive note with some movie
                                                         releases and steady advertising. Television ad demand increased
                                                         modestly and would help broadcasters record a decent quarter. We
                                                         expect revenues for ZEEL and Sun TV to grow 4.9% YoY and 7.5% YoY,
                                                         respectively. Multiplexes logged a QoQ uptick in footfall, and we
                                                         expect PVR and INOX to post revenues of INR1.5bn (-76.7% YoY) and
                                                         INR820mn (-77.9% YoY), respectively. However, overall occupancy
                                                         remains low and would lead to EBITDA loss.
                                                         Uncertainties over movie releases and the spike in covid-19 cases
                                                         would blight multiplexes’ prospects in the near term. Our top picks are
                                                         Sun TV and ZEEL.
                                                         Broadcasters: Modest performance
                                                         With the advertising environment improving sequentially, we estimate ZEEL’s ad
                                                         revenue would grow ~6% YoY and subscription revenue would grow ~12% YoY
                                                         owing to modest digital subscription growth and absence of music revenue in base.
                                                         Overall, we expect modest revenue growth of 4.9% YoY, along with a 25.8% EBITDA
                                                         margin for Q4FY21. We expect SUN TV's ad revenue to remain flat YoY as local
                                                         advertising remains weak (9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21) along with 9% YoY subscription
                                                         growth led by an 8% uptick in the DTH segment. Overall, for Sun TV, we expect
                                                         revenue to grow by ~7.5% YoY along with a marginal EBITDA decline of ~-1.1% YoY

                                                         Multiplexes: Occupancy and movie delay woes
                                                         The spurt in covid-19 cases in pockets towards the end of Q4FY21 has further hurt
                                                         occupancy for the quarter, which began on a good note with a decent response to
                                                         movies such as Master and Roohi. There were delays in release of some major films
                                                         due to the 50% occupancy cap in the quarter initially. Footfall mostly picked up in
                                                         south as regional releases garnered a better response. But with overall occupancy
                                                         low and scanty releases, we expect revenue to slide -76.7% YoY for PVR and -77.9%
                                                         YoY for INOX, respectively. Similarly, we expect them to report EBITDA losses of
                                                         ~INR604mn and ~INR695mn, respectively

                                                         Outlook: Broadcasters likely to fare much better in near term
                                                         We expect broadcasters to fare much better than multiplexes in the near term. With
                                                         covid-19 cases increasing across the country, we expect footfalls in multiplexes to
                                                         be abysmal, not to mention scanty movie releases. Meanwhile, producers are likely
                                                         to hold back on releases, leading to further content supply risk. In addition,
                                                         uncertainty over rental payments for FY22 remains an overhang. Factoring the
                                                         above, we revise down FY22E revenue/EBITDA 45%/58.9% for PVR and 45%/55%
                                                         for INOX. On the other hand, broadcasters are likely to benefit from advertising
                                                         aggression by FMCG and e-commerce businesses. With lockdown being imposed in
                                                         pockets, TV viewership is also likely to increase. We expect the ad environment to
                                                         improve over coming quarters owing to higher advertising demand (IPL, summer
                                                         season, lockdowns) and improving ad rates. Our top picks are SUN TV and ZEEL.

Abneesh Roy                                Prateek Barsagade
+91 (22) 6620 3141                         +91 (22) 4063 5407
Abneesh.Roy@edelweissfin.com               Prateek.Barsagade@edelweissfin.com

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset      Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                Q4FY21 Media results preview snapshot
    Stock (INR mn)                                              Q1FY21E                  Q1FY20              YoY (%)           Q4FY20           QoQ (%)
    ZEE                 Revenue                                    20,460                 19,511                 4.9            27,294             (25.0)
                        EBITDA                                      5,279                 (2,839)                NM              7,157             (26.2)
                        Adjusted Profit                             3,657                 (4,093)                NM              4,579             (20.1)
                        Other income                                  300                    407                                   276
                        Tax                                         1,232                   (372)                                1,937
                        EBITDA margin (%)                            25.8                  (14.5)                                 26.2
    Sun TV              Revenue                                     7,900                   7,352                7.5             9,723             (18.8)
                        EBITDA                                      5,325                   5,035                5.8             6,007             (11.4)
                        Adjusted Profit                             3,635                   2,500               45.4             4,418             (17.7)
                        Other income                                  550                    570                                   621
                        Tax                                         1,225                    759                                 1,508
                        EBITDA margin (%)                            67.4                    68.5                                 61.8
    PVR                 Revenue                                     1,500                   6,451              (76.7)              454              230.4
                        EBITDA                                      (695)                   1,727                NM              (781)                NM
                        Reported Profit                           (3,025)                   (746)                NM              (488)                NM
                        Other income                                  350                    167                                 2,747
                        Tax                                              -                     44                                (241)
                        EBITDA margin (%)                           (46.3)                   26.8                              (172.1)
    INOX Leisure        Revenue                                       820                   3,716              (77.9)              149              451.1
                        EBITDA                                      (604)                   1,100                NM              (645)                NM
                        Reported Profit                          (1,649.4)                (821.5)                NM           (1,025.0)               NM
                        Other income                                  300                      48                                  607
                        Tax                                              -                   615                                 (343)
                        EBITDA margin (%)                           (73.7)                   29.6                              (433.7)
    Source: Edelweiss Research

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Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                              ZEE Entertainment Enterprise
                                                              With advertising demand improving sequentially, we expect Q4FY21 to be a decent
                                                              quarter for ZEE Entertainment, primarily led by improving ad rates and volumes.
                                                              Though market share improved for Hindi GEC, loss of share in markets such as
                                                              Marathi, Bangla and Tamil could prompt a change in the programming strategy.

                                                              For Q4FY21, we expect advertising revenues to increase ~6% YoY, riding the broad-
                                                              based economic recovery and resumption of television viewership across markets.
                                                              We expect subscription revenue to grow ~12% owing to modest growth in
                                                              linear/digital subscription and impact from absence of music business revenue in the
                                                              base. Programming cost is likely to inch up given the resumption in programming
                                                              and introduction of new shows. Overall, we expect 4.9% YoY revenue growth for
                                                              Q4FY21, along with a 25.8% EBITDA margin for the quarter.

                ZEEL | Q4FY21 result preview
     (INR mn)                                                     Q4FY21E              Q4FY20               YoY (%)                  Q3FY21                 QoQ (%)
     Revenue                                                       20,460               19,511                      4.9               27,294                    (25.0)
     EBITDA                                                         5,279              (2,839)                      NM                  7,157                   (26.2)
     Adjusted Profit                                                3,657              (4,093)                      NM                  4,579                   (20.1)
     Other income                                                     300                  407                                            276
     Tax                                                            1,232                (372)                                          1,937
     EBITDA margin (%)                                               25.8                (14.5)                                          26.2
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                Zee entertainment | Trends at a glance
     ZEEL                             Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20                   Q3FY20     Q4FY20       Q1FY21      Q2FY21     Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
     EBITDA margin%                     31.9     34.2      34.8       28.1     32.9      32.7       27.6      (14.5)       16.8         18.1       26.7         25.8
     Ad revenue growth%                 18.6     22.7      21.7       16.0      3.6       1.2      (15.8)     (14.7)      (64.5)       (26.3)      4.0          6.0
     Subscription revenue growth %      12.2     26.0      28.6       3.9      46.8      26.8       21.7       40.7        6.2          11.0       15.0         12.0
    Source: Edelweiss Research

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                Edelweiss Securities Limited            3
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                              Sun TV Network
                                                              We expect SUN TV Network to register a modest performance in Q4FY21. Given the
                                                              challenges to ad revenues from local advertising and aggression by other television
                                                              broadcasters in key markets, we expect SUN TV's ad revenues to remain flat YoY
                                                              (9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21). For subscription, we expect SUN TV to register 9% YoY
                                                              growth led by an 8% uptick in DTH subscription revenue.

                                                              In absence of any movie releases or the IPL tournament during the quarter, we
                                                              expect margins to improve sequentially. Overall, we expect SUN TV's revenue
                                                              growth to be broadly 7.5% YoY along with a marginal YoY decline in EBITDA and YoY
                                                              growth of 45.4% in PAT (primarily owing to high amortisation charge in the base).

                Sun TV Network | Q4FY21 result preview
     (INR mn)                                                    Q4FY21E              Q4FY20                YoY (%)              Q3FY21                 QoQ (%)
    Revenue                                                        7,900                7,352                    7.5              9,723                    (18.8)
    EBITDA                                                         5,325                5,035                    5.8              6,007                    (11.4)
    Adjusted Profit                                                3,635                2,500                  45.4               4,418                    (17.7)
    Other income                                                     550                  570                                       621
    Tax                                                            1,225                  759                                     1,508
    EBITDA margin (%)                                               67.4                  68.5                                      61.8
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                Sun TV | Trends at a glance
    Sun TV                           Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20                    Q3FY20    Q4FY20     Q1FY21    Q2FY21       Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
     EBITDA margin%                    65.6      73.9     73.8       68.4      62.0      58.9      71.2       68.5       68.7     66.4          62.3      67.4
    Ad revenue growth%                 18.6      22.7     21.7       16.0      3.6        1.2      (15.8)    (14.7)     (64.5)    (26.3)        4.0        0.5
    Subscription revenue growth%       15.3      22.2     24.1       1.7       27.2      16.8      17.7       26.8       17.7      7.6          4.2        9.0
    Source: Edelweiss Research

4         Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                                 PVR
                                                                 While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie
                                                                 releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes.
                                                                 Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to
                                                                 be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest
                                                                 response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India,
                                                                 leading to sequential improvement in ATP and SPH for the quarter for PVR. Given
                                                                 low occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect PVR to register
                                                                 an EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect PVR to report ~INR1,500mn in
                                                                 revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR6,954mn in Q4FY21.
                  PVR | Q4FY21 result preview
     (INR mn)                                                     Q4FY21E                   Q4FY20                YoY (%)             Q3FY21                  QoQ (%)
     Revenue                                                         1,500                    6,451                (76.7)                 454                    230.4
     EBITDA                                                          (695)                    1,727                  NM                 (781)                     NM
     Reported Profit                                                (3,025)                   (746)                  NM                 (488)                     NM
     Other income                                                        350                    167                                     2,747
     Tax                                                                    -                    44                                     (241)
     EBITDA margin (%)                                               (46.3)                    26.8                                    (172.1)
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                                 Furthermore, factoring in the loss of business for two months, impact of fixed cost,
                                                                 customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in the initial phase and potential
                                                                 bunching of movie releases, we have cut FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and
                                                                 58.9% respectively.

                  PVR | Estimates revision
                         FY20       YTD21                  FY21E                                       FY22E                                     FY23E
     (INR mn)
                       Actual       Actual    Previous      Revised        % change         Previous   Revised      % change      Previous         Revised    % change
     Revenue           34,144         986        4,158           2,486          (40.2)       35,033     19,268         (45.0)      42,268          42,268            -
     growth (%)          11%         -91.9        -78.1          -86.9                       1564.3      674.7                         20.7         192.3
     EBITDA            10,766      (2,809)      (2,940)      (3,504)              NM         12,280      5,053         (58.9)      14,878          14,878            -
     growth (%)          84%        -232.6      -117.0       -158.7                         -1308.7     -244.2                         21.2         257.6
     PAT                  264      (4,613)      (7,462)      (9,027)              NM            980     (4,427)             NM        2,299         2,299            -
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                  PVR | Trends at a glance
     PVR                        Q1FY19    Q2FY19     Q3FY19        Q4FY19        Q1FY20      Q2FY20    Q3FY20       Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
     EBITDA margin%               19.7       17.5         19.5           19.2        31.6       32.7      33.6          26.8     NM           NM         NM       NM
     Ad revenue Growth%            6.5       13.2         28.9           22.4        27.6       15.6       9.1        (22.0)     NM           NM         NM       NM
    Source: Edelweiss Research

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Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                                     INOX Leisure
                                                                     While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie
                                                                     releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes.
                                                                     Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to
                                                                     be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest
                                                                     response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India,
                                                                     leading to a sequential uptick in ATP and SPH for Q4FY21. Given sub-optimal
                                                                     occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect INOX to register an
                                                                     EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect INOX to report ~INR820mn in
                                                                     revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR604mn in Q4FY21.
                 INOX Leisure | Q4FY21 result preview
                                                                      Q4FY21E                      Q4FY20               YoY (%)             Q3FY21                  QoQ (%)
    Revenue                                                                   820                    3,716               (77.9)                 149                    451.1
    EBITDA                                                               (604)                       1,100                 NM                 (645)                     NM
    Reported Profit                                                     (1,649)                      (822)                 NM                (1,025)                    NM
    Other income                                                              300                       48                                      607
    Tax                                                                             -                  615                                    (343)
    EBITDA margin (%)                                                    (73.7)                       29.6                                   (433.7)
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                                     Furthermore, factoring in continued headwinds such as loss of business for two
                                                                     months, impact of fixed cost, and customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in
                                                                     the initial phase, we are cutting FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and 55%
                                                                     respectively.

                  INOX Leisure | Estimates revision
                        FY20       YTD21                       FY21E                                          FY22E                                    FY23E
    (INR mn)
                      Actual       Actual      Previous         Revised         % change           Previous   Revised     % change     Previous          Revised    % change
    Revenue           18,974            155          2,165            975               (53.7)      19,249     10,587        (45.0)     21,323           21,323            -
    growth (%)           12%        -98.7            -88.6           -94.9                           814.4      788.0                        10.8         146.3
    EBITDA             5,968      (1,322)       (1,006)         (1,926)                   NM         6,372      2,870        (55.0)         7,085         7,085            -
    growth (%)           93%       -162.4        -117.0             -132.3                           -727.2    -249.0                        11.2         247.1
    PAT                  150      (2,440)       (4,039)         (4,189)                   NM           600     (2700)             NM         838            838            -
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                  INOX Leisure | Trends at a glance
    INOX                       Q1FY19     Q2FY19       Q3FY19         Q4FY19            Q1FY20     Q2FY20     Q3FY20      Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
     EBITDA margin%              20.1         12.3           19.3            20.3           30.4       32.3     32.9         29.6      NM           NM         NM       NM
    Ad revenue growth%           19.8         17.8           38.2            28.4           17.1        5.8      2.2        (19.8)     NM           NM         NM       NM
    Source: Edelweiss Research

6         Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                          Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                              Rental agreement negotiations
                                                              With footfalls at multiplexes far below pre-covid levels and a surge in covid cases
                                                              being reported in pockets, particularly in bigger cities, multiplexes will face uncertain
                                                              cash flows going ahead. Up until now, rental agreements had been renegotiated,
                                                              which allowed multiplexes a breather in the present rough weather. But, landlords
                                                              may be running out of patience/financial tolerance after taking a hit for the whole
                                                              year. Landlords could lean towards higher revenue share in future agreements. We
                                                              continue to await more clarity from multiplex players.

                                                              Possible movie release delays
                                                              Despite many states now allowing 100% occupancy, overall occupancy and footfalls
                                                              have been far lower than pre-Covid levels and remained very low during the quarter.
                                                              There were few major releases: Roohi and Master. But most other movies received
                                                              less than enthusiastic response.

                                                              The inertia in footfalls has been further aggravated by increasing Covid cases in big
                                                              cities towards the quarter-end. This may result in caps by states. This has also led to
                                                              some major movies being postponed such as Sooryavanshi and Bunti aur Babli 2.
                                                              Some highly anticipated Hollywood productions such as Black Widow and Eternals
                                                              have been postponed. Given there is not much improvement in occupancy and Covid
                                                              caseload, It is likely that other major releases in the coming quarter could get
                                                              postponed. This can bunch up movie releases, which would further affect box office
                                                              collections.

                     Release dates and status of movies
     Movie                                                                                                    Date                                   Status
     Roohi                                                                                               11-Mar-21                              Released
     Time To Dance                                                                                       12-Mar-21                              Released
     Fauji Calling                                                                                       12-Mar-21                              Released
     Mumbai Saga                                                                                         19-Mar-21                              Released
     Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar                                                                            19-Mar-21                              Released
     Flight                                                                                              19-Mar-21                              Released
     No Means No                                                                                         22-Mar-21                            Postponed
     Haathi Mere Saathi                                                                                  26-Mar-21                            Postponed
     Saina                                                                                               26-Mar-21                              Released
     Koi Jaane Na                                                                                        26-Mar-21                              Released
     Bunty Aur Babli 2                                                                                   23-Apr-21                            Postponed
     Thalaivi                                                                                            23-Apr-21                    No announcement
     Chehre                                                                                              30-Apr-21                    No announcement
     Sooryavanshi                                                                                        30-Apr-21                            Postponed
     Radhe                                                                                              13-May-21                     No announcement
     Satyameva jayate 2                                                                                 14-May-21                     No announcement
     Toofan                                                                                             21-May-21                     No announcement
     Bell bottom                                                                                        28-May-21                     No announcement
     83 the film                                                                                         04-Jun-21                    No announcement
    Source: Industry, Edelweiss Research

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Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                                Advertising: Rocky year behind; hopeful for the future
                                                                According to the EY advertising report, advertising and event spends took a hit of
                                                                29% in CY20—the highest one-year drop in the history of advertising expenditure.
                                                                There was only a modest improvement in advertisement rates and volumes for
                                                                broadcasters, and cinema advertising remained negligible.
                   Advertising spend across media
    (INR bn)                                                                                CY2019                         CY2020                      CY2021E
    Television                                                                                  320                             251                          304
    Print                                                                                       206                             122                          152
    Events                                                                                       83                              27                           53
    OOH                                                                                          39                              16                           22
    Radio                                                                                        31                              14                           23
    Cinema                                                                                        8                               2                            5
    Traditional total                                                                           687                             432                          559
    Digital                                                                                     191                             191                          234
    Total                                                                                       878                             623                          793
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                                                                Television Advertising: Regional pull and hopeful of volume recovery
                                                                The pandemic gave a strong push to the average time Indians spent on TV. Overall
                                                                in CY20, the time spent increased by 7% over 2019 levels. The rise in viewership had
                                                                largely stabilized by Dec-20. But the increase in viewership did not translate to ad
                                                                volumes for most part of the year. Though ad volumes have not reached pre-covid-
                                                                19 levels, the last part of the year marked a modest increase in ad volumes.
                   Viewership change and corresponding ad volume change for CY20
    (% change)                                                                            Viewership Change vs 2019                   Ad volume change vs 2019
    Pre Covid (week 1-10)                                                                                         -6%                                        -3%
    During lockdown (week 11-26)                                                                                  18%                                      -32%
    After lockdown (week 27-37)                                                                                   14%                                        5%
    Year end (week 38-52)                                                                                          6%                                       20%
    Total for the year                                                                                             9%                                        -3%
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                                                                Going ahead for broadcasters, we expect that aggressive marketing and new
                                                                launches by FMCG, pharma and e-commerce companies to continue to improve ad
                                                                volumes. During the pandemic, ad spends were dominated by household products,
                                                                hygiene products and two new entrant to the list of top advertisers - entertainment
                                                                companies and E-commerce players. With the resurgence in Covid cases, the
                                                                increase in online ordering, rising social media commerce and people spending more
                                                                time on screen, we can expect these categories to continue to increase their spends.
                                                                We expect FMCG, durables and e-commerce players to focus the bulk of their
                                                                advertising budget on TV.

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Q4FY21: Result Preview

                   Television ad spends across Industries
     Ad spend across Industries                                                                            CY 2019                  CY 2020               Growth
     FMCG                                                                                                      49%                     51%                      -9%
     E-Com                                                                                                      5%                     11%                    95%
     Consumer Durables                                                                                         12%                      8%                    44%
     Telecom                                                                                                    7%                      6%                    -29%
     Auto                                                                                                       5%                      4%                    -28%
     BFSI                                                                                                       1%                      4%                    193%
     Education                                                                                                  3%                      3%                    -17%
     Real estate                                                                                                2%                      2%                      1%
     Others                                                                                                    16%                     11%                    -41%
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                   Top advertisers by product category
                                                       2019                                                                  2020
            Rank                         Categories                          %Share                            Categories                              %Share
              1                          Toilet soap                           7%                              Toilet soap                               7%
              2                           Shampoo                              3%                        Ecomm/entertainment                             4%
              3                        Floor Cleaners                          3%                             Toothpastes                                4%
              4                       Washing powder                           3%                               Shampoo                                  4%
            11                          Toothpastes                            3%                           Washing powder                               4%
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                                                              In 2020, regional channels dominated the screens compared with national channels,
                                                              both in terms of viewership increase and ad volumes. Regional channels received
                                                              27% more advertising compared with national channels. Regional channels also
                                                              logged more than 50% of viewership. Almost all major regional languages revelled
                                                              in a good jump in viewership, barring Kannada and Marathi, which marked a
                                                              negligible decline. English channels, on the other hand, saw a decline.
                                                                            Advertisement volumes by channel type

                                                                                  Ad volume (in Hours per channel)

                                                                                            National
                                                                                              526
                                                                                                                      Regional
                                                                                                                        666

                                                              Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset              Edelweiss Securities Limited           9
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                                Though presently Hindi GEC, movies and news are the top ad volume contributors,
                                                                going ahead, we can expect more advertisement spends towards regional channels.
                                                                This bodes well for ZEEL, which has a widespread regional language portfolio. The
                                                                company has also expressed that it would focus new investments towards regional
                                                                content, particularly Tamil, Bangla, Marathi and Punjabi. This will help ZEEL take
                                                                advantage of the shifting ad spends to regional language channels.

                   Viewership change in CY2020 versus 2019 by Language
     (% change)                                                                                                                    Viewership Change vs 2019
     Gujrathi                                                                                                                                             57%
     Multi-language                                                                                                                                       27%
     Punjabi                                                                                                                                              26%
     Bangla                                                                                                                                               14%
     Tamil                                                                                                                                                12%
     Malyalam                                                                                                                                             11%
     Hindi                                                                                                                                                11%
     Oriya                                                                                                                                                 9%
     Telugu                                                                                                                                                5%
     Kannada                                                                                                                                               -1%
     Marathi                                                                                                                                               -2%
     English                                                                                                                                             -28%
     Others                                                                                                                                              -59%
     Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                   Top 10 genres by ad volume share
                                                      2019                                                                  2020
     Rank              Genre                                               %Share          Genre                                               %Share
     1                 Hindi Movie                                         10%             Hindi Movie                                         11%
     2                 Hindi News                                          6%              Hindi News                                          6%
     3                 Hindi GEC                                           5%              Hindi GEC                                           6%
     4                 Music                                               5%              Tamil GEC                                           4%
     5                 Tamil GEC                                           4%              Music                                               4%
     6                 Bengali GEC                                         4%              Hindi regional news                                 4%
     7                 Bengali news                                        3%              Bengali news                                        3%
     8                 Hindi regional news                                 3%              Bengali GEC                                         3%
     9                 Malyalam GEC                                        3%              Malyalam GEC                                        3%
     10                Telugu GEC                                          3%              Telugu news                                         3%
     11                Others(68)                                          54%             Others(69)                                          55%
     Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

10          Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset           Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                                                              Digital Advertising: Withstanding the storm
                                                              Though traditional advertising took a hit due to the pandemic, digital advertising saw
                                                              a modest increase. During 2020, the average screen time of Indians rose. Indians
                                                              spent on an average 4.6 hours on their phone overtaking South Korea and China to
                                                              take the third place for hours spent on phone.

                                                              In December 2020, India crossed 700 million in broadband connections while
                                                              smartphone users touched 448 million. Advertisers took to digital media to take
                                                              advantage of the increased screen time and capture attention. As per EY media &
                                                              entertainment report and Dentsu advertising report, Digital media is the only
                                                              segment which logged growth during CY20. Most advertising spends in digital
                                                              medium came from the usual e-commerce players and consumer durables. We
                                                              expect this trend to continue.

                   Digital advertising spend across industries
     Digital Ad spend across Industries (% Share)                                                                   CY 2019          CY 2020                 Growth
     FMCG                                                                                                              27%               14%                   -13%
     E-Com                                                                                                             19%               24%                    5%
     Consumer Durables                                                                                                 11%               17%                    6%
     Telecom                                                                                                            9%               13%                    4%
     Auto                                                                                                               7%                6%                    -1%
     BFSI                                                                                                              10%               10%                    0%
     Education                                                                                                          6%                5%                    -1%
     Real estate                                                                                                        5%                2%                    -3%
     Others                                                                                                             6%                9%                    3%
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                                                              Present and future relative landscape
                                                              During the year, FMCG continued to be the top spender relative to ad spends by
                                                              other sectors. But it was closely followed by e-commerce players, which ramped up
                                                              marketing to take advantage of the uptrend in online spending.

                                                              In CY20, five sectors spent more than 30% of their advertising budget on digital
                                                              media. Looking forward, we expect digital advertising to grow faster than traditional
                                                              means, while television would continue to capture the major share of ad spends
                                                              backed by expenditure from FMCG and consumer durables. While many advertisers
                                                              across industries decided to rely on digital media in CY20, Television remained the
                                                              preferred medium for FMCG and consumer durables companies.

                                                              Overall, we expect continued growth in digital ad spends and ad spends in television
                                                              to return to pre-covid levels before other traditional media channels. The EY Market
                                                              survey has also indicated that the marketing community expects ad spends to return
                                                              by CY22.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset             Edelweiss Securities Limited            11
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                    Overall ad spend by industry
     Ad spend across Industries                                                                                        Ad spend (INR bn)                      % share
     FMCG                                                                                                                               1155                      21%
     E-Com                                                                                                                               979                      17%
     Consumer Durables                                                                                                                   575                      10%
     Telecom                                                                                                                             512                       9%
     Auto                                                                                                                                409                       7%
     BFSI                                                                                                                                284                       5%
     M&E                                                                                                                                 254                       5%
     Retail                                                                                                                              116                       3%
     Others                                                                                                                             1314                      23%
     Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research

                    Industry ad spend share across media
     Ad spend across various media                                                 TV          Print         Digital         Radio             Cinema            OOH
     FMCG                                                                         64%           11%            19%                2%                  1%           4%
     Auto                                                                         29%           39%            25%                3%                  1%           3%
     E-commerce                                                                   45%           14%            39%                1%                  1%           1%
     Retail                                                                       19%           47%            23%                1%                  1%           5%
     Telecom                                                                      50%            6%            40%                3%                  1%           3%
     BFSI                                                                         16%           19%            57%                6%                  1%           3%
     M&E                                                                          19%           37%            32%                5%                  1%           5%
     Consumer Durables                                                            35%           15%            45%                1%                  1%           4%
     Others                                                                       34%           48%            10%                6%                  1%           2%
     Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research

                    Ad spend across media
     Ad spend across various media (INR bn)                                        TV          Print         Digital         Radio             Cinema            OOH
     FMCG                                                                        739.2       127.05          219.45              23.1               11.55         46.2
     Auto                                                                       283.91       381.81          244.75           29.37                  9.79        29.37
     E-commerce                                                                 258.75         80.5          224.25              5.75                5.75         5.75
     Retail                                                                      97.28       240.64          117.76              5.12                5.12         25.6
     Telecom                                                                     3450          3450           3450               3450               3450         3450
     BFSI                                                                        45.44        53.96          161.88           17.04                  2.84         8.52
     M&E                                                                         48.26        93.98           81.28              12.7                2.54         12.7
     Consumer Durables                                                            40.6         17.4            52.2              1.16                1.16         4.64
     Others                                                                     446.76       630.72           131.4           78.84                 13.14        26.28
     Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research

                    Expected change in media ad spend share
     (% share)                                    2017                  2018                 2019                  2020                    2021                 2022E
     Television                                      40                   40                    39                     41                      40                   39
     Print                                           34                   31                    29                     25                      23                   21
     Radio                                            4                     4                    4                      3                       3                    3
     Cinema                                           2                     2                    2                      1                       1                    1
     OOH                                              6                     6                    6                      3                       3                    3
     Digital                                         15                   17                    20                     28                      30                   34
     Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research

12           Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                  Edelweiss Securities Limited
Q4FY21: Result Preview

                  Expected growth in CY21 and time to recovery by media
     (INR bn)                                                        2019             2020            2021E                   Recovery to pre-Covid level
     Television                                                       320              251               304                                        2022
     Print                                                            206              122               152                                       2025+
     Events                                                            83                27               53                                        2023
     OOH                                                               39                16               22                                        2024
     Radio                                                             31                14               23                                       2024+
     Cinema                                                              8                2                5                                        2023
     Traditional total                                                687              432               559                                        2023
     Digital                                                          191              191               234                                         N/A
     Total                                                            878              623               793                                        2023
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

                  Marketing community expectations for CY22
     Expected change in Ad spending                                                                                 Overall                  Traditional
     Increase over 10%                                                                                                46%                           27%
     Increase under 10%                                                                                               18%                           29%
     No major change                                                                                                  20%                           20%
     Reduce under 10%                                                                                                   5%                          10%
     Reduce over 10%                                                                                                  10%                           14%
    Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset   Edelweiss Securities Limited           13
Q4FY21: Result Preview

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