Q2 2021 Artisan Focus Fund
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Q2 2021 Artisan Focus Fund This is an offering of shares of an Artisan Fund and does not create a relationship between the investor and Artisan Partners. The Notes and Disclosures section of this presentation contains important information. Readers are encouraged to review it carefully.
Antero Peak Group Investment Results Since Inception Cumulative Returns Risk/Return Summary 180% 30% 160% Artisan Focus Fund 140% 25% Morningstar Large Growth Category Annualized Return 120% 20% 100% S&P 500® Index 80% Morningstar Large Blend Category 15% 60% MSCI ACWI Index 40% 10% 20% 0% 5% Apr 17 Sep 17 Dec 18 Aug 20 Jan 21 Feb 18 Jul 18 Oct 19 Jun 21 May 19 Mar 20 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Annualized Volatility Artisan Focus Fund S&P 500® Index Performance Statistics Annualized Cumulative Standard Sharpe Max Relative to the S&P 500® Index As of 30 Jun 2021 Returns Inception Returns Inception Deviation Ratio Drawdown Beta Up Capture Down Capture Artisan Focus Fund (ARTTX) 26.49% 167.28% 15.1% 1.7 -14.5% 0.8 116% 74% S&P 500® Index 17.44% 95.90% 16.0% 1.0 -19.6% — — — Source: S&P/MSCI/Morningstar. Inception: 24 Apr 2017. Risk and return statistics from 1 May 2017 to 30 Jun 2021. Annualized volatility measured by standard deviation. Artisan Focus Fund is categorized by Morningstar in the Morningstar Large Growth category. Past performance does not guarantee and is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns and principal values will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than that shown. Call 800.344.1770 for current to most recent month-end performance. Performance may reflect agreements to limit a Fund’s expenses, which would reduce performance if not in effect. The Fund’s investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) made a material contribution to performance. IPO investments may contribute significantly to a small portfolio’s return, an effect that will generally decrease as assets grow. IPO investments may be unavailable in the future. ARTISAN PARTNERS 2
Antero Peak Group Consistency of Returns Rolling 12-Month Returns: Artisan Focus Fund vs. S&P 500® Index # of Observations # Outperform Benchmark % Outperform Benchmark 39 36 92% 80% Artisan Focus Fund Outperforms 70% 60% Artisan Focus Fund Returns (%) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Artisan Focus Fund Underperforms -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% S&P 500® Index Returns (%) Source: Artisan Partners/S&P. As of 30 Jun 2021. Past performance does not guarantee and is not a reliable indicator of future results. Returns based on month-end data from 1 May 2017 to 30 Jun 2021. Green dots indicate rolling 12 month returns of the Artisan Focus Fund (ARTTX, Y-axis) relative to the S&P 500® Index (X-axis). Dotted line differentiates outperformance or underperformance of the fund relative to the index for the rolling periods. Inception: 26 Apr 2017. ARTISAN PARTNERS 3
Antero Peak Group Investment Results—Average Annual Total Returns (Latest Month-End) Expense Ratios (Gross / Net) ARTTX Semi-Annual Report 31 Mar 20211,2 1.26% Prospectus 30 Sep 20202 1.32% 1Excludes Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses as described in the prospectus. 2See prospectus for further details. Past performance does not guarantee and is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns and principal values will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than that shown. Call 800.344.1770 for current to most recent month-end performance. Performance may reflect agreements to limit a Fund’s expenses, which would reduce performance if not in effect. The Fund’s investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) made a material contribution to performance. IPO investments may contribute significantly to a small portfolio’s return, an effect that will generally decrease as assets grow. IPO investments may be unavailable in the future. Source: S&P. Returns greater than one year are annualized unless otherwise noted. Fund inception: 24 Apr 2017. ARTISAN PARTNERS 4
Antero Peak Group Investment Process —A Differentiated Approach We seek to construct a focused portfolio designed to maximize alpha while limiting downside risk over the long term We seek to identify inflections in multi-year trends, which are often misunderstood by Thematic Idea Generation market participants, allowing us to take differentiated views on industry fundamentals We apply a systematic framework for analyzing companies across sectors and Systematic Analytical Framework themes, creating a repeatable and methodical decision-making process We incorporate risk management into all stages of our investment process, evaluating Proactive Risk Management various metrics regularly and using options actively Operational Alpha Artisan’s operational infrastructure allows the team to focus on the investment process and provides business stability, operational support and flexibility in the scope and duration of our investment process ARTISAN PARTNERS 5
Antero Peak Group Quantifying Differentiation: Key Tenets of Our Research Our process is rooted in finding inflections that are underpinned by secular, cyclical or idiosyncratic/company-specific forces We’ve found that these inflections are often misunderstood or mis-modeled by the street, which allows us to take a differentiated view on the earnings power and multiple paid for the business Moreover, we seek fundamental acceleration on a sustained, multi-year basis Inflections are Mismodeled by the Street1 Return on Capital Drive Valuation 12% 20 Actual R² = 0.54 Antero Peak Group Estimate 18 10% Street Estimate 16 8% 14 Price-to-Book 12 6% 10 8 4% 6 4 2% 2 0% 0 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Cash Flow Return on Investment Source: Source: Credit Suisse, HOLT analysis. Universe is 615 US companies with a market cap over $5 billion (ex-financials and real estate) as of 12/31/2017. ROI measure is HOLT Cash Flow Return on Investment (CFROI). The HOLT CFROI is based on a proprietary HOLT methodology that converts income statement and balance sheet information into a CFROI® return, a measure intended to more closely approximate a company’s underlying economics. 1This hypothetical example is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to constitute a past specific recommendation or reflect a past or current holding. The stylized example is intended to convey a high-level overview of the analysis performed in connection with the team’s research process, and the type of information that is considered in that analysis. The information contained herein represents a simplified presentation of a complex process, which may vary and differ materially from what is illustrated. ARTISAN PARTNERS 6
Antero Peak Group Earnings Revisions and Quality Were Key Drivers of 1H21 Performance Deeply cyclical areas like energy, financials and materials were the best performers in 1H 21, with excess performance driven by sharply rising earnings estimates However, these areas show little evidence of any genuine increase in earnings power, as the revision cycle is a COVID-related recovery story rather than a true inflection in the business Many of these areas did not satisfy all aspects of our process, and were a headwind to our performance in 1H 21 Earnings Revisions by Sector—Concentrated in Low Quality… As a result, High Quality Companies Underperformed Change in 2021 EPS Estimates Dow Jones US Thematic Quality Index: YoY Returns 150% 5% 129% 100% 0% 50% 37% 31% -5% 16% 12% 2% 2% 0% -10% -10% -5% -5% -13% -19% -50% -31% -15% -69% -100% -20% May-21 Dec-20 Jun-20 Apr-21 Jun-21 Jun-21 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Mar-21 CY 2020 CY 2021 Source: Antero Peak/Standard & Poor’s/Refinitiv/FactSet/Credit Suisse. EPS figures represent consensus estimates according to data collected by FactSet. The Dow Jones U.S. Thematic Market Neutral Quality Index is designed to measure the performance of a long/short strategy utilizing a long position in high quality companies and a short position in low quality companies. Quality is calculated using a ranking process based on the trailing 12-month return on equity and debt-to-equity ratio. The index is calculated using long and short indices as its basis. It is designed to be market- and sector-neutral. Past performance does not guarantee and is not a reliable indicator of future results. ARTISAN PARTNERS 7
Antero Peak Group Moderating Trends—An Environment of Decelerating Growth Earnings revisions are set to materially slow going forward Cyclical Revisions also tend to track the ISM Manufacturing index very closely We believe this moderation in earnings revisions and decelerating growth favors our process— a focus on deep, fundamental research and thoughtful portfolio construction—moving forward Earnings Revisions Should Slow Going Forward This is Partly Driven by a Peaking of Short-Cycle Indicators S&P 500 Index: EPS and Forward Estimates ISM Manufacturing PMI (LH) vs % of Positive Revisions (RH) 200 70 80% Cyclical Areas are Most Vulnerable 195 65 70% S&P 500 Earnings Per Share 60% 190 60 Forward Estimates % Positive Revisions 3% 50% 185 55 ISM PMI 40% 180 50 EPS Growth 30% 175 15.9% YTD 45 20% 170 40 10% 165 35 0% May-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Dec-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-01 May-18 Dec-99 Dec-16 Jun-08 Apr-11 Sep-95 Feb-97 Jul-98 Oct-02 Mar-04 Aug-05 Jan-07 Nov-09 Sep-12 Feb-14 Jul-15 Oct-19 Mar-21 ISM Manufacturing PMI % Positive Revisions Source: Antero Peak Group/ Standard & Poor’s/Refinitiv/FactSet/Credit Suisse. Data as of 30 June 2021. Forward EPS based on consensus estimates according to data collected by FactSet. % of positive revisions based on data collected by Credit Suisse. The ISM Manufacturing Index, also know as the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of US economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the US economy. Past performance does not guarantee and is not a reliable indicator of future results. ARTISAN PARTNERS 8
Antero Peak Group An Improved Setup for Our Process Going Forward Revisions should now be more linked to medium-term and longer-term fundamental changes rather than a recovery of COVID contractions or purely cyclical oscillations We believe this strongly favors our process heading into 2H 2021, with portfolio holdings set to see meaningfully higher growth than the S&P500 on a go forward basis Forward Estimates—Artisan Focus Fund vs S&P 500 35% 33% 30% 25% 20% 15% 15% 12% 10% 5% 1% 0% Artisan Focus Fund Artisan Focus Fund Revenue Growth Above S&P 500 Index EPS Growth Above S&P500 Index 2021 2022 Source: Antero Peak Group estimates/S&P. Based on Antero Peak Fund holdings exposure as of 30 Jun 2021. 2021 and 2022 company growth estimates are based on team projections relative to the S&P 500 Index consensus estimates. ARTISAN PARTNERS 9
Antero Peak Group Life Sciences Update: Tools Industry Acceleration Continues Life sciences has shifted away from industrial exposure through M&A and divestitures, as an accelerating core growth—the emergence of biologics and growth from China—has materially bolstered opportunities The pandemic has created phasing issues in organic growth rate of change, requiring discipline in our process in stock selection Nonetheless, COVID has only amplified our secular thesis on the sector we laid out a few years ago, and we think the industry continues to structurally accelerate in coming years—now with cyclical tailwinds further bolstering growth Biopharma funding levels are at all-time highs The success of RNA-based vaccines will encourage additional research that will be immediately accretive to the tools industry COVID has encouraged additional government investment—NIH budget will continue to grow in excess of COVID levels Pandemic highlighted the fragility of the drug industry’s supply chain and its need for immediate restructuring Structural Tools Growth Acceleration Continues Revenue accelerators are driving opportunities in our process +6-9% +4-5% 3-4% 2012-2016 2017-2020 2021-2024 Tools Industry—Organic Growth, Low Tools Industry—Organic Growth, High Source: Antero Peak Group estimates. As of 30 Jun 2021. This material contains the views and opinions of the manager as of the date of publication, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate, and is subject to change without notice. ARTISAN PARTNERS 10
Antero Peak Group Capturing America’s Building Boom COVID impact: Leading to a natural cyclical recovery and potentially leading to a secular shift in de-urbanization, which is underpinned by a decade of delays in household formation following the 2009 Financial Crisis. Proving the linkage between commercial and residential: Investors incorrectly try and disaggregate commercial and residential construction dollars, yet our research proves that residential is the true demand driver. The correlation is over 90% between single family housing starts and on- residential construction on a one-year lagged basis. Bottom-Up Analysis: Leads to differentiation in multiple compelling subgroups COVID-19 Shift in urbanization and Bottom-up modeling leads Cyclical contraction that relationship between to differentiation in multiple Disruption leads to inflection commercial and residential subgroups Accelerating, differentiated and benefitting from pricing power HVAC Aggregates Commercial service Building Products Homebuilders Cyclical, lack of Thematic Cyclical, lack of differentiation and Inflection differentiation and hurt by inflation hurt by inflation Source: Antero Peak Group ARTISAN PARTNERS 11
Antero Peak Group HVAC: A Consolidated Industry Inflecting on Multiple Fronts Company Focus – The large HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning) companies are far more focused today than in the past, primarily being held inside large industrial conglomerates. This has undergone a dramatic change in the last few years. Energy Efficiency - HVAC is estimated to account for 30-40% of greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings and homes, with meaningful increases likely in expected government funding for upgrades Technology and Software Attachment - Increased complexity of applied HVAC systems is driving a longer-term acceleration in the more recurring, service nature of the business, which drives increased market share wins for industry leaders and reduces the overall cyclicality of the HVAC business more broadly Cyclicality - Commercial construction—representing 25% of commercial demand—is set to accelerate following a mid-2021 trough HVAC Industry: Company Focus Has Dramatically Improved '21-23 HVAC Revenue—Compounding 3-6% Above Consensus Johnson Controls International (JC) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Top Pick—Business mix radically improve 2016 spin-off of ADNT largest global auto seats Base-growth 3.0% 2018 sale of largest global lead battery business Addition of Tycho building products Upgrading IOT/Controls 2.5% Trane Technologies (TT) Modernization 1.3% Increased focus on the core business 2020 spin-off of Ingersoll Rand with Gardner Denver Replacement of aging equip. 1.3% Complete exit of golf carts, material handling and industrial compression Base-case 8.0% Carrier Global Corp (CARR) K-12 stimulus 2.0% Focused as a standalone company 2020 spin-off from United Technologies Inc (UTX) Accelerated refurbishment 2.0% UTX was one of the largest industrial conglomerates in the Bull-case 12.0% world, lacking focus Source: Antero Peak Group estimates. The holdings mentioned above comprised the following percentages of the Fund's total net assets as of 30 Jun 2021: Johnson Controls International PLC 5.0%. Securities mentioned, but not listed here are not held in the Fund as of the date of this report. ARTISAN PARTNERS 12
Artisan Partners Notes and Disclosures This section of this presentation contains information important to a complete understanding of the material presented. Please review it carefully. Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks and charges and expenses. This and other important information is contained in the Fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, which can be obtained by visiting www.artisanpartners.com/prospectus. Read carefully before investing. These materials are presented in connection with an offer of the shares of a Fund in the series of Artisan Partners Funds, Inc. These materials are not an offer for any other mutual fund mentioned. A purchase of shares of an Artisan Partners Fund does not create an investment advisory relationship between the investor and Artisan Partners Limited Partnership, the investment adviser to the Fund. In addition to acting as investment adviser to the Fund, Artisan Partners provides institutional investment management services. Artisan Focus Fund Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. A non-diversified portfolio may invest a larger portion of assets in securities of a smaller number of issuers and performance of a single issuer may affect overall portfolio performance greater than in a diversified portfolio. The portfolio’s use of derivative instruments may create additional leverage and involve risks different from, or greater than, the risks associated with investing in more traditional investments. High portfolio turnover may adversely affect returns due to increased transaction costs and creation of additional tax consequences. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid and may have underperformed securities of large companies during some periods. International investments involve special risks, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Portfolio Statistics: Portfolio statistics are intended to provide a general view of the entire portfolio, or Index, at a certain point in time. Statistics are calculated using information obtained from various data sources. Artisan Partners excludes outliers when calculating portfolio statistics. If information is unavailable for a particular security Artisan may use data from a related security to calculate portfolio statistics. Portfolio Holdings: For the purpose of determining the Fund’s holdings, exposures are delta-adjusted at the issuer level and may include multiple securities of the same issuer. Portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and are not intended as recommendations of individual securities. This material contains the views and opinions of the manager as of the date of publication, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate, and is subject to change without notice. While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any investment service, product or individual security. The investment process information contained herein represents a simplified presentation of a complex process. The investment process is subject to change and may differ materially from what is stated herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Theme and security examples are not intended to constitute a past specific recommendation or past or current holding. The stylized examples are only intended to convey a high-level overview of the investment team's approach when analyzing a company, and the type of information that is available about such company. Additionally, there is no obligation to update, modify or amend this material or to otherwise notify a reader in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This material is provided for informational purposes without regard to your particular investment needs. This material shall not be construed as investment or tax advice on which you may rely for your investment decisions. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments in order to determine the appropriateness of any investment product discussed herein. We expressly confirm that neither Artisan Partners nor its affiliates have made or are making an investment recommendation, or have provided or are providing investment advice of any kind whatsoever (whether impartial or otherwise), in connection with any decision to hire Artisan Partners as an investment adviser, invest in or remain invested in any funds to which we serve as investment adviser or otherwise engage with Artisan Partners in a business relationship. In no event shall Artisan Partners have any liability for direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) losses or any other damages resulting from the use of this material. Standard deviation is a measure of the volatility of a fund used to indicate the dispersion of past returns. A higher standard deviation means a greater potential for volatility. Sharpe ratio is risk-adjusted measure calculated using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the historical risk-adjusted performance. Drawdown is a statistical measure that shows the maximum loss occurring during any sub-period over the time period listed. Beta is a historic measure of a portfolio’s relative volatility, which is one of the measures of risk. Up capture measures the percentage of market gains captured by a manager when markets are up. Down capture measures the percentage of market losses endured by a manager when markets are down. Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding and indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock. Price-to-book value (P/B) is the ratio of the market value of a company's shares (share price) over its book value of equity. The book value of equity, in turn, is the value of a company's assets expressed on the balance sheet. R-squared (R2) is a statistical measure that represents the proportion of the variance for a dependent variable that's explained by an independent variable or variables in a regression model. Return on investment (ROI) is a financial ratio most commonly measured as net income divided by the original capital cost of the investment. ARTISAN PARTNERS 13
Artisan Partners Notes and Disclosures S&P 500® Index measures the performance of 500 US companies focused on the large-cap sector of the market. MSCI ACWI Index measures the performance of the full opportunity set of large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 26 emerging markets. The index(es) are unmanaged; include net reinvested dividends; do not reflect fees or expenses; and are not available for direct investment. S&P 500® Growth Index measures the performance for growth companies included in the S&P 500® Index. The index identifies growth stocks using three factors: sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum. S&P 500® Value Index represents the value companies of the S&P 500® Index. Morningstar Large Growth Category Average consists of large-growth portfolios that invest primarily in big U.S. companies that are projected to grow faster than other large-cap stocks. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap. Growth is defined based on fast growth (high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow) and high valuations (high price ratios and low dividend yields). Morningstar Large Blend Category Average consists large-blend portfolios that are fairly representative of the overall US stock market in size, growth rates and price. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the US equity market are defined as large cap. The blend style is assigned to portfolios where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. These portfolios tend to invest across the spectrum of US industries, and owing to their broad exposure, the portfolios' returns are often similar to those of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“S&P DJI”) and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use. Copyright © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). None of S&P DJI, Dow Jones, their affiliates or third party licensors makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and none shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. © 2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Artisan Partners Funds offered through Artisan Partners Distributors LLC (APDLLC), member FINRA. APDLLC is a wholly owned broker/dealer subsidiary of Artisan Partners Holdings LP. Artisan Partners Limited Partnership, an investment advisory firm and adviser to Artisan Partners Funds, is wholly owned by Artisan Partners Holdings LP. © 2021 Artisan Partners. All rights reserved. ARTISAN PARTNERS 14
You can also read