PROPERTY OUTLOOK - REALESTATE
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Property Outlook
Australian Property Market Report - October 2018
The realestate.com.au Property Outlook report brings
you the latest data and insights for residential dwellings
across Australia.
Should you Nerida Conisbee
trust all the
Chief Economist at realestate.com.au
Nerida is one of Australia’s leading property experts. She
bad news?
provides regular market commentary to a wide range of
Australian media outlets across digital, print, television and
radio. She also contributes content for REA Group’s websites
including realestate.com.au and realcommercial.com.au.
REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Table of contents
National 3
NSW 6
VIC 9
QLD 11
SA 13
TAS 15
NT 17
ACT 19
WA 21
Methodology 23
2REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
National
Demand
for all property -0.3%
Year-on-Year
Houses Apartments
-0.5%
Year-on-Year
-8.5%
Year-on-Year
Year-on-year demand by capital city
NT
11.8%
QLD
1.4%
WA
-2.0% SA
3.2%
NSW
-23.0%
ACT
5.4%
TAS VIC
22.2% -20.0%
Despite recent media reports, a 40% decline in prices in Sydney or Melbourne continues to be highly unlikely, however our
biggest cities will continue to see tough conditions for the remainder of the year… unless you’re a buyer.
The sheer number of price measurements available today can be confusing and it’s little wonder Australians are often at
a loss when it comes to knowing what to do with property, particularly if you’re in Melbourne or Sydney. For example,
Melbourne is up year-on-year using median price, but declining if you use an adjusted index, as has been in the news this
month. The point is, there is almost too much price related data, so how can you make sense of what’s really going on?
At realestate.com.au, we use other measures outside of just price guides to paint a picture about how the market is
performing. While buyer demand in Melbourne or Sydney has seen a sharp decline over the last year, indicating that
conditions aren’t great, there are some clear differences between the two cities that are worth mentioning. Sydney is being
harder hit because it has farther to fall – while buyer demand and price growth have dropped, the city is also seeing a
decline in rental demand and a significant decrease in offshore property seekers. In Melbourne, while buyer demand may be
down, offshore property seekers and rental demand remain strong which is helping to cushion the fall.
For complete methodology, see page 23 3REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Australia
All dwellings
1. South Hobart, TAS 6. Collaroy Plateau, NSW
2. Battery Point, TAS 7. Park Orchards, VIC
3. Crafers West, SA 8. Middle Park, VIC
4. Red Hill, VIC 9. West Hobart, TAS
5. Aldgate, SA 10. Birchgrove, NSW
Median price
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra Perth
Median price $790,000 $640,000 $490,000 $440,500 $417,000 $470,000 $600,000 $455,000
YoY growth -3.1% +1.3% +1.0% +4.3% +11.2% +0.9% +12.1% -5.8%
There are more positive signs elsewhere in Australia. Canberra and Hobart have slowed slightly but prices are still increasing.
Adelaide and Brisbane are also seeing steady positive growth. And while Perth’s price road to recovery seems stop/start at
present, premium suburbs are doing well, which is an early sign that conditions are still moving in the right direction.
Right now, the entire country is being hit by increased scrutiny over lending, however in some markets it is simply slowing
growth and not completely turning prices around.
Another good news story is that first home buyers are back, with finance approvals to this group well up compared to
the same time last year. While a relatively small buyer group, the combination of renewed first home buyer Government
incentives, fewer investors and calmer prices has been a positive. This is particularly the case in Sydney where we are seeing
the greatest number of first home buyer finance approvals in almost a decade.
This quarter we’ve also seen a change in Australia’s most in demand suburbs which are no longer dominated by Hobart.
It’s a sign that the extreme price growth we continue to see in this city may soon be coming to an end. South Hobart and
Battery Point still top the list but the Adelaide suburbs of Crafers West and Aldgate also feature. Surprisingly, particularly
given how tough the Sydney market has been, we are seeing very high demand in Birchgrove and Collaroy Plateau. Both
suburbs, while not exactly cheap, could be considered to be at the lower cost end of premium Sydney.
For complete methodology, see page 23 4REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
What is going to turn things around?
It does look like the remainder of Spring will be slower than last year, but there are a number of things that could turn the
market around heading into the new year.
The end of the Financial Services Royal Commission:
The bright spotlight being shone on banks and other lenders is leading to very conservative lending behaviour. Everyone is
finding it hard to get finance, but investors are feeling particularly challenged. The end of the Royal Commission is unlikely
to be a positive for lending, but at the very least, it shouldn’t get much harder than it is now.
The final report and recommendations will be released at the start of 2019 and at this time banks will have greater certainty
around what they can and cannot do. It is possible that the recommendations will be far more restrictive than what is
expected, however the likelihood of this is low. The aim of the Commission wasn’t to make the banking sector unviable or
crash the property market, but we can be certain that lending conditions after the Commission will be more restrictive than
they were prior.
Positive economic and jobs growth, particularly wage rises:
Do you remember the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis? Property in Sydney and Melbourne declined substantially,
primarily because of job loss. Right now, we are moving into very different economic conditions. Businesses are confident
and employment growth is strong. Job vacancies recently hit an all-time high, unemployment is at its lowest level in six
years and GDP growth is at its highest level in six years. Eventually this will lead to more confident consumers and wages
growth, so while prices are declining in Sydney and Melbourne, these factors will certainly cushion how hard and far they
fall.
Greater political stability:
No market enjoys uncertainty and instability and in Australian politics, we have certainly had our fair share. While the
political problems in the US and UK seem never ending, in Australia it is likely that things will settle down soon. Either
because the Coalition becomes more stable, or we have a new Government sometime next year. A new Government,
however, will have its own property related problems (see below).
The return of foreign buyers:
Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approvals have shown a big drop in purchases from offshore buyers, and the media
in Asia now actively focuses on the fact that Australia is overpriced with large falls are ‘expected’. While this is impacting
buyers, we can see on realestate.com.au that property seekers from Asia, particularly China, are still very interested in
Australian property. It’s true that foreign buyers are unlikely to start becoming more active in a hurry, particularly given the
difficulties in getting finance in their local markets, as well as additional taxes on foreign buyers, but it is possible within the
next two years that they will return. This will however primarily impact the new home space, given that they are restricted to
only buying new property.
But we still need to be aware of the risks…
While there is a lot of positivity, there are some risks to the outlook. Thus far, the discussion has centered on the problems
for housing from rising interest rates and people switching from interest only to interest plus principle, but job loss is the
factor that most impacts prices.
Trump’s trade war:
As he promised, Trump has started a trade war and China is his major target. Australia’s economic growth is reliant on
China’s economic growth for a number of reasons. They buy a lot of our resources, they send a lot of students here and
they provide us with low costs goods. Right now, Chinese economic growth is solid off the back of better global growth
conditions, however a trade war isn’t good news. If China’s economic growth takes a dive, Australia’s economic growth will
also grind to a halt. Of all uncertainties in the market, this is the one that will have the greatest impact on jobs and ultimately
house prices.
A rapid rise in interest rates:
A rise in interest rates is bad news for mortgage holders in that their loans increase, but for many it is also good news
– interest rates will start increasing once wages start to rise. On one hand, you will pay more on your mortgage but on
the other, you will be getting paid more. While most people could easily survive a couple of rate rises, it will be more
challenging if they start to rise rapidly, something which right now seems unlikely. At this stage, a steady rise in interest rates
is primarily a risk for highly leveraged buyers, or those switching from interest only loans.
Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions:
A month ago it seemed unlikely we would see a change of Government, however now it is definitely on the cards. A policy
change outlined by the ALP is for current tax incentives to only apply to new housing. For existing properties already
negatively geared, there will be no changes. This could have a big impact on pricing, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.
Whether the policy is changed however remains to be seen. It was announced at a time at which prices were increasing
dramatically and investors were particularly active. Investors have now pulled back and prices are declining.
For complete methodology, see page 23 5REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Sydney
NSW
Tough Sydney is being hit hardest on all measures on realestate.com.au – buyer demand, rental demand
conditions
and foreign buyer demand are all struggling. It is therefore unsurprising that prices have taken a
dive. What is surprising for some is that Sydney is being hit harder than Melbourne, but a number
bring back first
of factors make Sydney more vulnerable to price declines. The first is how expensive the city
continues to be. In the same way we find buyer demand drops off when a suburb becomes
home buyers excessively expensive, this seems to now hold for a city as a whole.
Demand -23.0%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$790,000
-3.1%
Year-on-Year
-4.8%
Quarter-on-Quarter
First home buyers aren’t the only ones that are price sensitive – investors, both foreign and local, are as well. There is simply
less for them to buy in Sydney than elsewhere in Australia. The second is that jobs growth is not looking as promising in
Sydney as it is in Melbourne. To top it all off, rental demand in Sydney is dropping, a key sign that fewer people are looking to
move to the city. This is not the case in Melbourne where we continue to see growth.
While the headline numbers are negative, across suburbs, there is a high degree of variability.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
-22.0%
Year-on-Year
-23.3%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$885,000 $691,000
-8.3%
Year-on-Year
-8.8%
Quarter-on-Quarter
-2.7%
Year-on-Year
-3.4%
Quarter-on-Quarter
Premium Sydney is doing pretty well – we can see this in both price growth and in the most in demand suburbs. Birchgrove,
with a median of almost $2 million, made it into the most in demand suburbs in Australia. This strength in premium reflects
that if you are a well-paid professional in Sydney right now, things are ok. Similarly, business growth is doing quite well,
benefitting those who are self-employed. The cheapest suburbs are also holding up – while not exactly seeing strong
growth, they are not falling, propped up by lots of first home buyers, we are seeing the greatest number of first home buyer
finance approvals in almost a decade, and perhaps home owners who are less stretched in their mortgages.
For complete methodology, see page 23 6REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
The areas that are seeing the toughest conditions tend to be Sydney’s middle market, in properties prices between $1.0 to
$1.5 million – both fewer buyers and more sellers are leading to falls.
Overall, Sydney prices look set to continue to fall for the remainder of the year and a decline of around 10% from peak to
trough is not looking all that unlikely. It is realistic that the end of the Royal Commission and better economic growth for
Australia next year will be a positive for this market. Sydney is unlikely to return to double digit growth any time soon but
flatter conditions next year look more likely.
Regional NSW is showing far more diverse conditions. Orange and the Richmond Valley continue to see strong growth in
buyer demand and price growth. Fewer property seekers in Newcastle and Wollongong has yet to hit pricing however is likely
to be a factor over the next six months.
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Sydney
Houses Apartments
1. Neutral Bay 6. Collaroy Plateau 1. Mcmahons Point 6. Mosman
2. Freshwater 7. Fairlight 2. Fairlight 7. Paddington
3. Paddington 8. Greenwich 3. Queenscliff 8. Naremburn
4. Cammeray 9. Willoughby 4. Artarmon 9. Stanmore
5. Como 10. Erskineville 5. Wollstonecraft 10. Balgowlah
Sydney metro regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Baulkham Hills & Hawkesbury $1,160,000 -7.2% -1.3% -29.6%
Blacktown $690,000 -1.4% 0.0% -31.6%
City & Inner South $930,000 -5.1% -3.1% -16.4%
Eastern Suburbs $1,350,000 -11.2% -8.5% -16.7%
Inner South West $810,000 -2.4% -2.6% -17.8%
Inner West $990,000 2.0% -3.9% -10.0%
North Sydney & Hornsby $1,121,350 -11.9% -10.1% -19.0%
Northern Beaches $1,305,000 -13.3% -6.8% -19.6%
Outer South West $635,000 -3.8% -3.8% -27.9%
Outer West & Blue Mountains $650,000 0.0% -0.8% -32.8%
Parramatta $725,000 -0.7% -0.7% -21.6%
Ryde $1,114,000 15.4% -1.2% -17.0%
South West $725,000 -2.7% -1.4% -33.5%
Sutherland $940,000 -9.6% -6.0% -21.5%
For complete methodology, see page 23 7REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
NSW regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Albury $270,000 -11.5% -11.5% 2.1%
Armidale Dumaresq $339,000 -5.3% 1.2% 9.7%
Ballina $618,500 2.6% -3.4% 4.2%
Bathurst Regional $440,000 4.8% 3.4% -29.2%
Byron Bay $920,000 12.0% 5.7% -11.2%
Clarence Valley $398,000 7.6% 7.6% 11.3%
Coffs Harbour $493,250 3.8% 1.2% 3.0%
Dubbo $363,000 2.8% -1.9% -10.9%
Eurobodalla $486,250 14.4% 3.2% 8.3%
Great Lakes $470,000 2.2% -5.1% 16.0%
Lismore $407,500 11.6% 4.5% -4.9%
Newcastle $598,000 3.1% -1.0% -24.1%
Orange $372,000 3.5% -4.5% 49.5%
Port Macquarie-Hastings $515,000 3.2% 2.0% -1.6%
Queanbeyan $480,000 2.1% 6.7% 2.7%
Richmond Valley $368,000 23.7% 9.2% 44.0%
Shellharbour $624,500 -1.7% 0.7% -44.9%
Shoalhaven $536,000 -2.0% -2.5% -30.7%
Tamworth Regional $335,500 0.1% -3.0% 20.9%
Tweed $535,000 0.9% -6.3% 7.0%
Wagga Wagga $350,000 4.2% 2.4% 26.2%
Wingecarribee $782,500 1.0% 3.0% -33.4%
Wollongong $690,000 1.0% -0.5% -35.7%
For complete methodology, see page 23 8REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Melbourne
VIC
Is Geelong On all measures, Melbourne is holding up better than Sydney. Despite recent headlines that prices
the new
are falling year-on-year, using median price as a measure, as opposed to an index, we can see that
prices are actually slightly up by 1.3% compared to the same time last year. However, it’s not all
Hobart?
good news as we are seeing a sharp reduction in buyer demand, on par with the decline in Sydney.
Demand -20.0%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$640,000
1.3%
Year-on-Year
-2.3%
Quarter-on-Quarter
On a more positive note, rental demand continues to rise and property seekers from overseas are increasing. Melbourne also
continues to feature in the most in demand suburbs in Australia. Melbourne’s relative affordability compared to Sydney seems
to be giving the city a very slight edge when it comes to pricing. While prices are slightly up, the big drop in demand does
suggest that this is temporary. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that Melbourne will see the same degree of price declines as
Sydney.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
-25.7%
Year-on-Year
-7.8%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$695,121 $535,000
-2.1%
Year-on-Year
-5.0%
Quarter-on-Quarter
1.1%
Year-on-Year
0.8%
Quarter-on-Quarter
While Melbourne prices shouldn’t increase substantially for some time, regional Victoria is doing very well. Geelong in
particular is seeing strong price growth and buyers and renters are very active. When we look at the most in demand suburbs
outside of our capital cities, nine of the top 10 are located in the Geelong region. First home buyers and young families are
particularly active however the city is also benefitting from strong Government investment in infrastructure. The new home
market is also strong, both for house and land in places like Torquay and new apartments in inner Geelong. Extending from
this, other regional cities of Victoria that are within commuting distance to Melbourne are also doing well.
For complete methodology, see page 23 9REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Melbourne
Houses Apartments
1. Albert Park 6. St Kilda 1. Montmorency 6. Black Rock
2. Hawthorn 7. Hawthorn East 2. Parkdale 7. Sydenham
3. Red Hill 8. Armadale 3. Middle Park 8. Rosanna
4. Clifton Hill 9. Toorak 4. Mitcham 9. Greensborough
5. Fitzroy North 10. Elsternwick 5. Coburg North 10. Dingley Village
Melbourne metro regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Inner $609,000 -2.2% -2.9% 2.1%
Inner East $957,000 -21.1% -11.0% -0.7%
Inner South $877,000 -9.2% -2.6% -6.9%
North East $655,000 1.6% -2.2% -31.3%
North West $590,000 4.4% -1.7% -35.4%
Outer East $711,500 -4.0% -4.2% -28.3%
South East $630,000 5.5% 0.6% -32.0%
West $580,000 7.4% 0.0% -24.6%
VIC regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Ballarat $355,000 10.9% 5.0% 36.6%
Greater Bendigo $325,000 0.0% -2.4% 15.9%
Greater Geelong $510,000 11.5% -0.2% 19.8%
Greater Shepparton $269,000 2.7% 0.1% 23.2%
Mildura $255,000 8.1% -1.9% 18.8%
Surf Coast $765,000 9.3% -6.7% -2.5%
Warrnambool $321,250 2.0% -4.1% 31.8%
Wodonga $310,000 -5.9% -9.8% 14.1%
For complete methodology, see page 23 10REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Brisbane
QLD
Economic Even with such tough finance conditions, Brisbane continues to hold up pretty well. Almost
growth
everything is up just a bit – buyer demand, rental demand and pricing. The one area where
Brisbane does seem to be seeing a big pick up is offshore buyer demand, perhaps driven by the
supporting the
city’s education sector as well as its relative affordability.
market And, all the bad news about apartment oversupply seems to be attracting the attention of investors
– both offshore and local.
Demand 1.4%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$490,000
1.0%
Year-on-Year
1.0%
Quarter-on-Quarter
Better economic growth conditions appear to be a positive in this market and premium Brisbane suburbs are the
beneficiaries. Right now, the most in demand suburb is inner-north’s Grange while the outer south-east suburb of Chandler
comes in at number two.
Brisbane is doing well and much of regional Queensland is joining it, although many areas are coming off low bases.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
1.1%
Year-on-Year
-0.8%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$528,000 $387,000
1.9% 1.5% -4.4% -2.0%
Year-on-Year Quarter-on-Quarter Year-on-Year Quarter-on-Quarter
Even Gold Coast, which had a quick post Commonwealth Games demand hangover, seems to be recovering with demand
levels flat over the quarter. The Local Government Areas of Douglas and Mackay have now seen double digit price growth,
something quite unusual in these market conditions.
Queensland economic growth is pulling the market up and the Royal Commission wrapping up will be a positive for finance
and for the state. Price growth is likely to continue over the next 12 months.
For complete methodology, see page 23 11REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Brisbane
Houses Apartments
1. Red Hill 6. Cooparoo 1. Red Hill 6. Gordon Park
2. Paddington 7. Chandler 2. Holland Park 7. Paddington
3. Grange 8. New Farm 3. Camp Hill 8. Fairfield
4. Indooroopilly 9. Bunya 4. New Farm 9. Brighton
5. Toowong 10. Spring Hill 5. Wishart 10. Ashgrove
Brisbane metro regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
East $550,000 2.6% 1.9% 9.1%
North $531,250 1.0% -1.6% 5.0%
South $600,000 -3.2% -3.2% -6.1%
West $639,000 4.0% 0.4% -1.6%
Inner City $650,000 1.6% 3.2% 8.2%
QLD regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Bundaberg $268,000 -7.6% -6.1% 7.9%
Cairns $335,000 -6.9% -4.3% 2.5%
Douglas $359,000 18.3% 22.2% 16.5%
Fraser Coast $312,000 -1.0% 2.3% 21.3%
Gladstone $235,000 -6.9% -6.0% 25.1%
Gold Coast $525,000 1.0% 0.0% -9.2%
Gympie $342,500 6.4% 10.5% 24.1%
Mackay $332,773 10.0% 4.0% 9.0%
Noosa $635,000 2.4% -2.3% 15.8%
Rockhampton $255,000 -1.9% -2.7% 7.5%
Sunshine Coast $553,000 3.6% 1.5% 1.6%
Toowoomba $350,000 -2.0% -1.7% 0.0%
Townsville $300,000 -9.1% -3.2% 3.2%
For complete methodology, see page 23 12REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Adelaide
SA
Australia's In these slow market conditions, Adelaide is looking relatively red-hot when compared to most
other capital cities, with moderate price growth being recorded. And, although conditions aren’t
investment exceptional, some suburbs are doing very well.
hotspot Crafers West and Aldgate in the Adelaide Hills made it into the most in demand suburbs in Australia
Demand 3.2%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$440,500
4.3%
Year-on-Year
1.4%
Quarter-on-Quarter
list.
Rental demand is up in Adelaide and although it isn’t seeing the biggest increases in Australia, a number of low-cost suburbs
are seeing very high views per rental listing. Employment growth continues to occur in Adelaide which may lead to a shortage
of lower cost rental properties in the city. Adelaide does appear to be an investment hot spot, but more premium suburbs are
the focus.
Investors are attracted to particular types of properties and locations in Adelaide. In inner Adelaide it is still possible to buy
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
7.0%
Year-on-Year
-5.5%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$473,000 $340,000
5.1%
Year-on-Year
2.6%
Quarter-on-Quarter
-2.7%
Year-on-Year
-2.9%
Quarter-on-Quarter
a well looked after terrace home for under $600,000. These sorts of properties regularly feature in our weekly most clicked
homes going to auction, likely driven by the fact that it is impossible to find something similar in inner Melbourne and Sydney.
In fact, the suburb most frequently viewed by property seekers from Melbourne and Sydney, Glenelg South, recently saw one
of the strongest price increases in Australia.
Adelaide is doing well even though buyers are under the same finance hurdles as the rest of Australia. Relative affordability,
and what appears to be better jobs growth, are the key drivers.
For complete methodology, see page 23 13REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Adelaide
Houses Apartments
1. Stirling 6. Crafers West 1. Clarence Park 6. Kensington Gardens
2. Parkside 7. Norwood 2. Glenelg South 7. West Lakes Shore
3. Aldgate 8. Hawthorndene 3. West Beach 8. Semaphore
4. Unley 9. Belair 4. Brighton 9. Glenelg East
5. Goodwood 10. Bridgewater 5. North Adelaide 10. Grange
Adelaide metro regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Central & Hills $588,500 3.2% 4.2% 2.4%
North $348,500 4.0% -1.8% -1.9%
South $457,500 6.6% 4.0% 9.1%
West $493,750 12.2% 2.0% 1.2%
For complete methodology, see page 23 14REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Hobart
TAS
Is the boom Hobart is still the strongest capital city in Australia, continuing to see double digit growth in both
set to slow?
demand and pricing. It also tops the list of the most in demand suburbs in Australia with South
Hobart and Battery Point coming in at number one and two respectively.
Demand 22.2%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$417,000
11.2%
Year-on-Year
-1.0%
Quarter-on-Quarter
There have been a few signs that although buyers continue to be very active, the boom will start to wind down over the next
12 months. The first is that offshore property seekers have pulled back a lot, almost as much as they have in Sydney. The
second is that rental demand has also come back – given investors have been a big part of the boom in pricing, fewer people
looking to rent is likely to impact rental returns.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
19.6%
Year-on-Year
0.2%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$445,000 $345,000
12.7%
Year-on-Year
-1.4%
Quarter-on-Quarter
8.2%
Year-on-Year
0.0%
Quarter-on-Quarter
For now though, it looks like Hobart’s strong run in price growth will continue for a while, however those double digit price
growth figures may start to move below 10%.
For complete methodology, see page 23 15REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Hobart
Houses Apartments
1. Lindisfarne 6. Moonah 1. Sandy Bay 6. Glenorchy
2. Sandy Bay 7. Acton Park 2. Hobart 7. Claremont
3. Howrah 8. Blackmans Bay 3. West Hobart 8. New Norfolk
4. Bellerive 9. Old Beach 4. Kingston 9. NA
5. New Town 10. Granton 5. Bellerive 10. NA
TAS regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Devonport $256,000 8.9% -3.4% 32.0%
Launceston $308,000 7.7% -2.2% 27.9%
For complete methodology, see page 23 16REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Darwin
NT
Another Conditions continue to be stop/start in Darwin and although last quarter we were seeing a drop
false start
in demand and prices, this has turned around – demand has seen a pretty big jump while prices
are very slightly up. However, it may be too early to celebrate, just as we have seen this quarter in
for Darwin?
Perth – a city that was seeing great demand conditions for 18 months but something has spooked
buyers, likely the Royal Commission and it has pulled back. Darwin’s steady creep back to positive
pricing is likely to continue but it won’t be an easy ride.
Demand 11.8%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$470,000
0.9%
Year-on-Year
3.1%
Quarter-on-Quarter
The most in demand suburb for all property types right now in Darwin is Jingili, located in the popular northern suburbs. For
houses, Nightcliff tops the list while for apartments it is Fannie Bay.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
10.7%
Year-on-Year
10.8%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$510,000 $360,000
6.3%
Year-on-Year
-1.1%
Quarter-on-Quarter
-18.2%
Year-on-Year
-1.8%
Quarter-on-Quarter
For complete methodology, see page 23 17REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Darwin
Houses Apartments
1. Nightcliff 6. Ludmilla 1. Fannie Bay 6. Karama
2. Fannie Bay 7. Leanyer 2. Bayview 7. Driver
3. Tiwi 8. Wulagi 3. Stuart Park 8. Woolner
4. Jingili 9. Marlow Lagoon 4. Leayner 9. Coconut Grove
5. Alawa 10. Rapid Creek 5. Rapid Creek 10. Nightcliff
For complete methodology, see page 23 18REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Canberra
ACT
Government Canberra’s property market continues to be strong with vastly different conditions to what we are
seeing in Melbourne and Sydney. Given that Canberra is under the same tough finance conditions
changes both as the rest of Australia, it is likely to be jobs growth that is supporting it – this assertion is being
positive and
backed by the fact we continue to see strong growth in rental demand. This growth in jobs could
be either more Government jobs (surprising given Coalition Governments tend to support a
negative smaller public service) or alternatively a growing diversity in the Canberra economy.
Demand 5.4%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$600,000
12.1%
Year-on-Year
9.1%
Quarter-on-Quarter
While conditions are strong, the potential for a change of Government will have a mixed impact on the Canberra housing
market. On one hand, it is likely a Labor Government would look to have a bigger public service (good news for housing)
but on the other, the potential for significant changes to negative gearing would push away investors and also challenge the
Canberra rental market.
For the rest of the year, it looks like Canberra’s strong price growth will remain with demand levels continuing to increase.
The most popular suburbs still show a north side bias with Kaleen, Evatt and MacGregor sitting in the top three for the city.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
6.9%
Year-on-Year
-3.3%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$680,000 $435,000
6.1%
Year-on-Year
4.6%
Quarter-on-Quarter
-0.4%
Year-on-Year
1.2%
Quarter-on-Quarter
For complete methodology, see page 23 19REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Canberra
Houses Apartments
1. Kaleen 6. Flynn 1. Ngunnawal 6. Harrison
2. O'Connor 7. Narrabundah 2. Watson 7. Barton
3. Evatt 8. Yarralumla 3. O'Connor 8. Narranundah
4. Curtin 9. Wannlassa 4. Franklin 9. Pearce
5. Macgregor 10. NA 5. Mawson 10. NA
For complete methodology, see page 23 20REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Perth
WA
Still slow but The road to recovery is not an easy one for Perth. Perth price declines continue and although
the signs are
we were seeing a consistent pick up in buyer demand for 18 months, this pulled back in the last
quarter.
positive
It is likely that like the rest of Australia, Perth is being hit by challenges in accessing finance.
Demand -2.0%
Year-on-Year
All dwellings
Median price
$455,000
-5.8%
Year-on-Year
-5.2%
Quarter-on-Quarter
On a positive note, many of Perth’s premium suburbs are doing ok – Shenton Park continues to be the most in demand
suburb in Perth, followed by Floreat. Perth has also seen the biggest pick up in rental demand in Australia, albeit from a very
low base.
It is likely that although the recovery in Perth is a bit stop/start, the completion of the Royal Commission will be a positive for
the city. Potential changes to Western Australia’s allocation of the GST will also boost Government coffers, allowing for more
investment in the state. And while prices will begin to stabilise over the next 12 months, they are unlikely to see a big jump.
But, a flat market is much better than one where prices are declining.
Houses Apartments
Demand Demand
-0.3%
Year-on-Year
-3.5%
Year-on-Year
Median price Median price
$475,000 $383,500
-5.0%
Year-on-Year
-5.0%
Quarter-on-Quarter
-8.4%
Year-on-Year
-7.6%
Quarter-on-Quarter
For complete methodology, see page 23 21REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY OUTLOOK · OCTOBER 2018
Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Perth
Houses Apartments
1. Floreat 6. Swanbourne 1. Nedlands 6. Leederville
2. Shenton Park 7. Mount Hawthorn 2. Shenton Park 7. Crawley
3. Dalkeith 8. West Leederville 3. Doubleview 8. Sorrento
4. Subiaco 9. East Fremantle 4. Cottesloe 9. East Fremantle
5. Nedlands 10. Cottesloe 5. Mount Hawthorn 10. Joondanna
Perth metro regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Inner $755,000 -11.1% -8.5% -2.0%
North East $438,000 -3.3% 0.6% -0.6%
North West $480,500 -1.9% -4.9% -3.3%
South East $433,000 -5.9% -3.8% -3.7%
South West $445,000 -7.3% -7.3% 0.0%
WA regions
Regions Median Price Demand
Sept 2018 Year-on-Year % Quarter-on-Quarter % Year-on-Year %
median price change change change
Broome $422,500 0.6% -4.0% 6.2%
Bunbury $265,000 -18.5% -10.6% -6.0%
For complete methodology, see page 23 22REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY MARKET REPORT · JULY 2018
This report uses realestate.com.au internal data that is current as at the time of publication. This report provides general
information only and is not intended to constitute any advice or appraisal and should not be relied upon as doing so. If you
wish to cite or refer to this report (or any findings or data contained in it) in any publication, please refer to the report as the
‘realestate.com.au Property Outlook – October 2018’.
Methodology
Property Demand
Demand for property provides data and insights relating to demand for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national
level, capital city, local government area level, Statistical Area Level 4 and by suburb according to property views data on
realestate.com.au. It calculates the number of property views in the past 3 months against the average number of property
listings on realestate.com.au.
Median Price
Median price is calculated using CoreLogic sold price data for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national level,
capital and local government areas. Median price is for the past quarter for suburbs that have had at least 10 property sales.
Data obtained by RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic Asia Pacific is subject to the following copyright: © 2018 Copyright
RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic (CoreLogic), Local, State, and Commonwealth Governments. All rights reserved. No
reproduction, publication, adaption, modification, public communication, distribution or transmission of the copyrighted
materials in this publication is permitted whether in whole or in part. The copyrighted materials in this publication are
provided for personal or internal business purposes only unless otherwise agreed in writing.
The information provided in this publication is current as at the publication date only. CoreLogic does not warrant accuracy
or completeness in the information it supplies and to the full extent allowed by law excludes any liability for any loss or
damage arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication
through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such
information.
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