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Prime Day Predictions 2019
ADOBE DIGITAL INSIGHTS
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
METHODOLOGY
Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry
Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via:
Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud Adobe Advertising Cloud
• Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S. based on retail websites
• Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products
• Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100** retailers on the web in the U.S.
Visit our website: adobe.ly/AdobeInsights
Sign up for email alerts: http://www.cmo.com/adiregister.html
Follow us: @adobeinsights
** Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
KEY FINDINGS
State of E-commerce
• E-Commerce Growth Continues Strong in H1 2019 with +12.8% YoY
• Mobile is Not Just The Future Of E-Commerce, It’s the Present
• Dollars Spent on Smartphones Will Surpass Desktop In 2022
Prime Day
• The Retail Giants Will See their Best Prime Day Yet This Year
• Retail Giants Are Learning How To Convert Prime Day Traffic
• Every Retailer That’s Growing Will Experience the Halo Effect
• Physical Locations Give an Edge On Prime Day
• Email Will Be the Key to a Successful Prime Day
• Heightened Engagement With Video Ads
• The Demographics Of Prime Day Skew Middle Class And Urban
• Where to Find the Best Prime Day Discounts
• Deeper Discounts Don’t Always Mean More Sales
• Return Rates Increase for Purchases Made on Prime DayTHE STATE OF RETAIL
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 E-COMMERCE GROWTH CONTINUES STRONG IN H1 2019 W/ +12.8% YoY E-Commerce is experiencing fast growth, despite already having a large base. • Q1 saw a slow down in growth compared to a year ago at 11.6% YoY. • Consumers picked up their online spending in Q2 to drive a strong 14% growth over the same period in 2018. • Overall, E-commerce growth is not showing signs of slowing down. H1 combined grew at 12.8% YoY • We expect strong double digit growth going into Q4 and the holiday shopping season.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 SMARTPHONES ARE NOT JUST THE FUTURE OF E-COMMERCE, THEY’RE THE PRESENT Smartphone is here and now. The vast majority of visits to retail websites come from mobile devices. • Consumers are shopping and researching on the go, whenever and wherever they’d like. • Capturing, directing and converting mobile traffic is imperative for a growing retailer.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
DOLLARS SPENT ON SMARTPHONES WILL SURPASS DESKTOP IN 2022
While smartphones are the devices of e-commerce research,
the last step is still mostly completed on desktops.
• About $1 in $3 is spent online through smartphones.
• We project the smartphones to become the primary device
for checking out by May 2022, and to account for more
than 50% of revenue by the end of that year.PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETAIL GIANTS WILL SEE THEIR BEST PRIME DAY YET
Prime Day is not just an Amazon holiday
anymore.
• Online retailers are seeing an increasingly
strong “Halo effect” on Prime Day.
• The big e-commerce competitors are
becoming better and better at reaping the
benefits of this artificial holiday.
• We predict the revenue lift for this year to
be stronger than ever at 79%.
• Prime Day will be the third day ever outside
of the holiday season to surpass $2B in E-
commerce spending after Labor Day 2018
and Memorial Day 2019.PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETAIL GIANTS ARE LEARNING HOW TO CONVERT PRIME DAY TRAFFIC
The big retailers’ edge lies in their ability to better convert
the traffic they get on Prime Day.
• A lift in conversion accounts for 70% of the Prime Day lift
for the big retailers.
• An influx in visits is also contributing factor on Prime Day,
although a much smaller one.
• Over the past 3 years the big retailers have improved
significantly how they convert the traffic on Prime Day.PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
EVERY RETAILER THAT’S GROWING WILL EXPERIENCE THE HALO
EFFECT
Successful retailers that are growing on par or faster
than the industry showed a significant lift on Prime
Day last year.
• Retailers in the average and above average
growth buckets saw a revenue lift greater than
15% on Prime Day.
• Retailers who are growing below the industry
benchmark saw almost no lift on Prime Day.PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
PHYSICAL LOCATIONS GIVE AN EDGE ON PRIME DAY
• Consumers usually use Buy-Online-
Pick-Up-In-Store (BOPIS) for less
expensive items that result in a BOPIS vs. Non-BOPIS AOV increase
smaller Average Order Value. $150
$145
$140
• Prime Day brings BOPIS order $135
values up closer to the online $130
average. $125
$120
$115
BOPIS AOV Non-BOPIS AOV
Non-Prime PrimePRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
EMAIL WILL BE THE KEY TO A SUCCESSFUL PRIME DAY
Excellent email experiences give brands an edge on Prime
Day.
• Retailers who showed the highest share of their revenue
coming from their email campaigns saw a significant Halo
effect last year.
• Retailers with a poorly developed or completely
undeveloped email channel saw zero lift on Prime Day.
• Overall, the email channel saw an 8.8% increase in order
share on Prime Day.
Increase in Share of Orders
Originating From Emails
8.8%PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
HEIGHTENED ENGAGEMENT WITH VIDEO ADS
Click-through rates
• While video advertising CPMs stay Desktop: +108%
relatively flat for Prime Day,
engagement is heightened, with 55% Mobile: +2%
click-through-rates up 55% and
viewable completion rates up 20%
• This engagement lift is primarily
driven through desktop, indicating Viewable completion rates
advertisers should focus their Desktop: +43%
energy here rather than mobile
20% Mobile: -2%PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE
“PRIME DAY HALO EFFECT” SKEW
MIDDLE CLASS AND URBAN
• Some of the major cities with the
biggest Prime Day Lift:
• Baton Rouge, LA
• Mooresville, NC
• Long Beach, CAPRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
WHERE TO FIND THE BEST PRIME DAY DISCOUNTS
• The best deals on Prime Day can be found
on electronics, apparel, and home goods
Smart TVs 14%
• Discounts on home goods and electronics Smart home accessories 12%
Smartwatches 12%
are on par with discounts found on Cyber Product category Discount
Monday, while Prime Day apparel and linen Electronics 11%
discounts outpace holiday discounts Apparel
Bedding and linens
10%
10%
Home goods 5%
• Look for the steepest electronic discounts on
smart items, specifically watches, TVs, and
home accessoriesPRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
DEEPER DISCOUNTS DON’T ALWAYS MEAN MORE SALES
• Consumers are most discount
sensitive towards toys and
home/garden goods, but steeper
discounts on appliances, personal Home & Garden Personal Care
care products, and groceries, Toys Groceries Appliances
doesn’t necessarily indicate more
purchases
More discount sensitive Less discount sensitive
• Items in the $50-$100 bucket see
the strongest relationship between
discount and units purchasedPRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETURN RATES INCREASE FOR PURCHASES MADE ON PRIME DAY
+30% increase in returns
In 2018 there was a 30% increase in returns for items purchased on Prime Day,
indicating that consumers are quick to buy items they don’t ultimately wantYou can also read
