President Biden Will Take A More Conciliatory Approach Towards Pakistan - The Eurasia Center - South Asia Program

The Eurasia Center – South Asia Program

               President Biden Will Take A More
             Conciliatory Approach Towards Pakistan
April 2021

                      President Joseph Biden, Photo Credit Newsweek

                                Mariam Asif
                                The Eurasia Center
                                South Asia Program
                                www.EurasiaCenter.org

Pakistan’s current Prime Minister Imran Khan, former captain of the Pakistan’s national cricket team,
                                        Photo Credit: Pakistan Today

        Strategic partnerships are dependent on a range of deliberate interests and issues: geography,
collective values, entrepreneurial advancement, market size, and so on. The afore-mentioned factors
in tandem, allow states to interact as strategic partners, thus signifying a positive engagement. There
are myriad areas where the U.S. and Pakistan can find non-politicized mutual ground: climate
change, healthcare, education, and infrastructure development. To work out areas of cooperation,
the ministerial-level Strategic Dialogue could be revived for both sides.1

        President Biden’s rise to power will present Pakistan with prospects to strengthen its
economic and strategic ties with the U.S.; however, it is unlikely to significantly impact the
transactional and issue-specific nature of the relationship between the two nations. Moreover,
President Biden’s presence in the White House can help the foreign policy establishment in

1
 Ejaz, Haider, “What will Biden mean for Pakistan?” Dawn, November 15, 2020,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1590457

Islamabad to forge new relationships with Washington, based on mutual economic and geopolitical
interests.2

                                                 Background

        Pakistan has always been in a good position to provide a communication backchannel
between Washington and Beijing. In the early 1970s, Islamabad eased Washington’s outreach to
Beijing. This resulted in President Richard Nixon paying a historic official visit to the country in
1972. “Contrary to Trump’s unpredictable, unilateralist, personal and at times erratic approach to
foreign affairs, Biden believes in dealing with other nations through institutions.” (Basit 2020). As
opposed to Trump, Biden knows Pakistan. He has traveled to Pakistan several times as Vice
President. Along with Senator John Kerry, he was one of the key architects of the Kerry-Lugar
Berman Act of 2009. Under this act, the U.S. provided annual civilian assistance of $1.5 Billion to
Pakistan between 2010 and 2014.3 President Biden’s support for the Kerry-Lugar Bill was built on
the understanding that the U.S. needs to move beyond engaging the Pakistani military and further
involve itself with the civil and political society. In conclusion, Pakistan will need to become
proactive by identifying bilateral areas of cooperation and make an action plan for Washington
accordingly.4

                                Policies President Biden Will Adopt

        Undoubtedly, Biden will continue his support for India against China in the Indo-Pacific
region; however, he is also expected to take steps to restore the U.S.’s role as a strategic balancer
between New Delhi and Islamabad — a key element that was missing during the Trump
Administration. Furthermore, President Biden will adopt a less aggressive approach towards Beijing
as opposed to Trump. The reason for this is to ensure cooperation on key issues: ending the
coronavirus pandemic, addressing climate change, and ensuring nuclear non-proliferation.
        The Biden Administration is expected to be more outspoken in its criticism of India’s
oppressive policies in Indian-administered Kashmir in an international arena. This will allow

2
  Abdul, Basit, “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Al Jazeera, November 17, 2020,
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/17/what-will-the-biden-presidency-mean-for-us-pakistan-relations
3
  Abdul, Basit, “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Al Jazeera, November 17, 2020,
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/17/what-will-the-biden-presidency-mean-for-us-pakistan-relations
4
  Ejaz, Haider, “What will Biden mean for Pakistan?” Dawn, November 15, 2020,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1590457

Pakistan to move its Kashmir policy forward by highlighting India’s human rights abuses and
international law violations in the disputed territory. Additionally, the Biden Administration is
expected to be more precarious of human rights violations, media censorship, and the mistreatment
of minorities in Pakistan. In 2019, Pakistan was placed on the blacklist of countries that violate
religious freedoms by the U.S. Moreover, Biden will need to pressure Islamabad to make
improvements in the afore-mentioned area. Islamabad will also face pressure from Washington to
assure the safety of its nuclear weapons. Lastly, the Biden Administration will envisage action from
Pakistan against armed groups targeting India which are established within its borders.5

                                  Economic Benefits For Pakistan

        In an article titled “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Abdul
Basit claimed:

        Washington is Islamabad’s largest trading partner, with an annual trade volume of $6.5
        billion dollars. Islamabad also needs Washington’s assistance to continue receiving help
        from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) without being forced to fully submit to the
        Fund and allow its technocrats to shape its economy. Similarly, it also needs Washington’s
        support to be taken out of the increased monitoring list of the Financial Action Task Force–-
        the global watchdog for terror financing.

        In terms of an economic point of view, Pakistan would need to cooperate with the Biden
Administration to have access to American markets, thus increasing economic cooperation between
the two nations. If the Biden Administration restores the U.S. — Iran Nuclear Deal, the Biden era
could provide Pakistan with myriad economic opportunities. Pakistan would have access to low-
cost Iranian oil and gas, and this would help Pakistan’s economy get back on track. The U.S. has
stalled investments in Pakistan due to the country’s discriminatory taxation laws, regulatory
barriers, and weak intellectual property safeguards. To attract investments, Pakistan should take
action to implement necessary reforms. Additionally, it should use the sizeable Pakistani diaspora in
the U.S. to attract more investments from America.6

5
  Abdul, Basit, “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Al Jazeera, November 17, 2020,
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/17/what-will-the-biden-presidency-mean-for-us-pakistan-relations
6
  Abdul, Basit, “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Al Jazeera, November 17, 2020,
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/17/what-will-the-biden-presidency-mean-for-us-pakistan-relations

Future of U.S. — Pakistan Relationship

        The relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan will be determined by a concrete approach
on both sides. If the U.S. thinks it can deter Pakistan from China and expect Islamabad to revise its
regional approach, its policy will nosedive. Pakistan would love to enhance its relationship with the
U.S.; however, it would not do so at the cost of its current economic relationship with China.
Islamabad needs to make it clear that Pakistan’s engagement with the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) does not mean that it is disinterested in attracting U.S. investments that will help
key sectors of the Pakistani economy to flourish. Analogously, if Pakistan is expecting that the U.S.
will be hard on India and make Kashmir the central point of its South Asian engagement, then it
will be mistaken. Dr. Moeed Yusuf, the current National Security Advisor, has stressed
geoeconomics as the key to Pakistan’s national security approach. For relations to be useful, both
Pakistan and the U.S. will have to find areas of cooperation and move from a transactional to a
more strategic mode.7

                                                  U.S.-China Ties

        America’s longing to blunt China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative and contain its
upsurge as a global power means that the country’s geopolitical and strategic interests in the Indo-
Pacific region will remain more aligned with India than Pakistan during Biden’s presidency.
Although India is China’s main rival in the region, Pakistan has begun to accelerate strategic and
economic ties with China. Reluctantly, under President Donald Trump, the U.S. moved closer to
India than ever before. The Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) was signed
between New Delhi and Washington. This agreement would provide India real-time access to
American geospatial intelligence, thus enhancing the accuracy of its missiles, armed drones, and
automated systems.8                                                                            The Biden
Administration will benefit Pakistan by relieving pressure on China. Under Donald Trump, the U.S.
strengthened its criticism of CPEC, which is “the $50 Billion flagship project of Chinese President
Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure investment spree that is smoothing the
way for Chinese influence, exports, and telecom equipment.” (Aamir 2020). The U.S. Assistant

7
  Ejaz, Haider, “What will Biden mean for Pakistan?” Dawn, November 15, 2020,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1590457
8
  Abdul, Basit, “What will a Biden presidency mean for US-Pakistan relations?” Al Jazeera, November 17, 2020,
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/17/what-will-the-biden-presidency-mean-for-us-pakistan-relations

Secretary of State for South Asia, Alice Wells, criticized CPEC for a lack of transparency and cost
escalations, implying that it was setting a debt trap for Pakistan. During an event hosted by the
Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., Wells asserted “the lack of transparency can increase CPEC
costs and foster corruption, resulting in an even heavier debt burden for Pakistan.” Ambassador
Wells repeated the criticism on numerous occasions; however, it was strongly opposed by both
Beijing and Islamabad. Under the Biden Administration, the U.S. is expected to support and end its
criticism towards CPEC. A South-Asian-based analyst in Washington, Malik Siraj Akbar, claims
that Democrats view China as a competitor as opposed to an enemy. He believes that the Biden
Administration will try to repair the relationship between the U.S. and China.

        With Biden in the White House, Pakistan will gain ground in its fight against the
coronavirus pandemic. According to Akbar, the U.S. and China are likely to cooperate to end the
pandemic, and “Pakistan would be a beneficiary of such cooperation between [the] two economic
powers.” According to geopolitical experts, Biden’s presidency will improve U.S. — Pakistan
relations; however, it won’t have any effect on China — Pakistan ties. A visiting fellow at the Near
East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, Mohan Malik, asserts that “Washington sees Beijing’s
Belt and Road Initiative as a predatory trap to ensnare developing countries on China’s periphery.”
This view also shapes U.S.’s policy towards CPEC, given the lack of transparency in many of the
infrastructure deals and high-interest loans that have forced Pakistan to seek an IMF bailout. 9

                                                   Conclusion

        Biden’s victory is good news for Pakistan. However, the country will need to work hard to
ensure it benefits from the change of leadership in Washington. Overall, U.S.-Pakistan relations will
have a positive trajectory in the Biden era and one vital dynamic will stay the same: Pakistan will
need help from the U.S. to keep its economy afloat and continue its development.

9
 Adnan, Aamir, “Pakistan awaits diplomatic benefits from Biden Administration,” November 9, 2020,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pakistan-awaits-diplomatic-benefits-from-Biden-Administration

Ali-Zaidi is a Pakistani-American lawyer and political advisor serving
      as the first deputy White House National Climate Advisor