PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA, MAY 2019 - Mintel
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REPORT, US - YEAR MONTH 2 OVERVIEW What you need to know essential to growing overall penetration and consequently, growing sales. This Report identifies what the main barriers are, and uses One of the biggest shifts in eating behaviours in Canada and in consumer feedback to suggest potential opportunities in the space. other markets has been the movement towards eating and drinking plant-based food and beverage alternatives. Does this represent a Definition passing fad or a sustained, longer-term shift? Feedback gathered from Canadians for this Report suggests the latter. The base of Plant-based proteins are proteins utilized in foods and have been Canadians who indicate that they are trying to add more plant- derived from a plant or vegetable source, such as beans/legumes based substitutes to their diet is relatively broad (28%). That (eg soy, chickpeas, lentils, peas), nuts (eg almonds, cashews), said, barriers to eating plant-based foods exist, and the ability of seeds (eg chia, hemp, sesame) and grains (eg wheat, quinoa), as companies that operate in this space to overcome them will be well as others. PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 3 REPORT CONTENT Overview What you need to know Definition Executive Summary The issues Taste, cost and the perception of being overly-processed are hurdles for plant-based alternatives Figure 1: Barriers to usage if plant-based products (% agree), March 2019 Vegans and vegetarians represent a relatively small slice of the broader consumer base Figure 2: Diet preferences, March 2019 Ethical considerations are a concern for sub-set of consumers Figure 3: Select reasons for avoiding animal-based products, by diet type, March 2019 The opportunities Younger women are key to the growth of the segment Figure 4: “Trying to add more plant-based substitutes to (their) diet”, women 18-24 vs overall population, March 2019 Older consumers more aware of their protein intake, but younger consumers looking to add more protein to what they eat and drink Figure 5: Attitudes toward protein, by age, March 2019 Pasta and cereal are the most commonly accepted foods in which to include plant-based protein Figure 6: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019 What it means The Market What You Need to Know Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption Canada’s food guide places focus on protein Market Factors Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation Figure 7: Global population by half-century (2050 forecast) Focus on health and weight management to continue Figure 8: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14 Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption Figure 9: Beef, carcass by weight, 1960 - 2017 Canada food guide increases focus on protein Key Players What You Need to Know Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve What’s Working? Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 4 Challenges Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives Figure 10: Behind the Impossible Burger, Ep. 1: Science for the Plate & Planet, March 2018 What’s in a name? War or words brewing between different interests What’s Next? The next burger wars may be plant based Figure 11: Beyond Meat They Beyond Burger Plant Based Burger Patties (US), January 2017 Figure 12: Beyond Meat Beyond Sausage Brat Original Plant-Based Sausage (US), November 2018 ‘Farm-to-fork’ may evolve from ‘lab-to-fork’ Figure 13: How to make cell-based meat, December 2016 Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve Figure 14: Oatly! The Original Oat-Milk (US), March 2019 Figure 15: Purely Elizabeth Dark Chocolate Strawberry Superfood Granola (US), January 2019 Figure 16: Convitta Linha Premium Shitake Shimeji Handmade Burger (Brazil), February 2019 Figure 17: Oh Naturel! Quinoa Mushroom Burgers (US), May 2018 Figure 18: Happy Cheeze Fresh Cheese Alternative from Cashews with Spirulina Chilli (Germany), January 2018 Plant-based formats also continue to evolve Figure 19: Gardein Fish-Free Crabless Cakes (US), April 2019 Figure 20: Trader Joe’s Vegan Jackfruit Cakes (US), January 2019 Figure 21: Gardein Meat-Free Chipotle Lime Crispy Fingers (Canada), April 2019 Figure 22: PC President’s Choice Corn, Carrot & Kale Veggie Bites (Canada), March 2019 Figure 23: Daiya Mozza Style Slices (Canada), May 2019 Figure 24: Daiya Deluxe White Cheddar Style Veggie Cheezy Mac (Canada), February 2017 Figure 25: Healthy Choice Power Bowls Cauliflower Curry (US), September 2018 Figure 26: Green Giant Fresh Buddha Bowl (US), April 2019 Figure 27: Lundberg Family Farms Organic Grainspirations Korean Style Chili Rice & Quinoa Bowl (US), October 2018 The Consumer What You Need to Know A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives exist Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians Usage of Plant-Based Foods/Drinks A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks Figure 28: Statements about diets, March 2019 Figure 29: “I plan to start eating more plant-based alternatives” (% agree), March 2019 Age and income impact usage of plant-based food substitutes Figure 30: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by age and income, March 2019 Figure 31: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by parental status, March 2019 Figure 32: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by region, March 2019 Figure 33: Diet preferences, March 2019 Figure 34: Trying to add more plant-based food substitutes into diet – by diet preference, March 2019 Canadians avoid meat for three main reasons Figure 35: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, March 2019 Figure 36: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by age and gender, March 2019 Motivations for avoiding animal products vary by diet followed Figure 37: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by diet type, March 2019 Barriers to Using Plant-Based Alternatives Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives Figure 38: Barriers to using plant-base alternatives (% agree), March 2019 PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 5 Over-processing is a concern for most Canadians Figure 39: “Plant-based meat alternatives that mimic the taste and texture of real meat are overly-processed” (% agree), women 18-24 vs overall, March 2019 For Canadians, plant-based foods are not just for vegetarians Figure 40: “Plant-based foods are just for vegetarian/vegans” (% agree), by age and gender, March 2019 Attitudes toward Protein Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals Figure 41: Statements about protein, March 2019 Figure 42: Statements about protein, by gender, March 2019 Figure 43: Statements about protein, by age, March 2019 Figure 44: Statements about protein, by parental status, March 2019 Plants are well-positioned to meet the protein needs of Canadians Figure 45: “Plant-based foods can provide all the protein I need” (% agree), by age, March 2019 Figure 46: Plant-based protein is healthier than animal protein (% agree), by generation, March 2019 Nuts are the most common non-meat protein Canadians use Figure 47: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, March 2019 Figure 48: Type of plant-based protein, current usage vs interest, March 2019 Figure 49: Biosteel Sports Nutrition Sport Greens Acai Lemonade High Performance Superfood Powder, March 2019 (Canada) Figure 50: Simple Truth Vanilla Flavor Plant Based Protein Powder, February 2019 (US) Figure 51: Quorn Southern Fried Bites, November 2018 (UK) Figure 52: Dr. Oetker Ristorante Pizza Pesto with Quorn, December 2018 (UK) Figure 53: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, by age, March 2019 Figure 54: Type of plant-based protein (select) – any use or interest, 18-44s by gender, March 2019 Category-Based Opportunities Pasta and cereal are the most common foods eaten containing plant-based protein Figure 55: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019 Figure 56: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, by diet type, March 2019 Plant-based energy bars and drinks proves more popular with young men Figure 57: Energy bars and drinks used with plant-based protein, men 18-34 vs overall, March 2019 Figure 58: KronoBar Performance Snacks Chocolate Avocado Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada) Figure 59: Simply Protein Bar Snacks Lemon Coconut Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada) Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians Figure 60: Population segments who are more likely to eat meat substitutes, March 2019 Appendix Data sources Consumer survey data Consumer qualitative research Abbreviations and terms Abbreviations Terms PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 6 DATABOOK CONTENT Standard demographics you can expect to see tracked in our Databooks: • Age and income • Age • Area • Born in Canada • Children in household • Education • Employment • Family structure • Financial situation • Gender and age • Gender and marital status • Gender • Generation • Household income • Household size • Housing situation • Language primarily spoken in the home • Marital status • Mobile device ownership • Number of children of any age in household • Number of children under 18 in household • Parental status by gender • Parental status • Race and origin • Race • Region • Sexual orientation • Social media • Visit social media websites daily • Visit social media websites weekly Consumer Research Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you? Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you?, by demographics Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply. Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply., by demographics Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply. Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply., by demographics Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying?, by demographics Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest, by demographics Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply. Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply., by demographics Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply. PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 7 Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply., by demographics Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?, by demographics Demographics By Demographics Demographics by demographics PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 8 SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT Based on exclusive consumer research, Mintel shows you how people use the internet to interact with the brands they buy, the leading topics of interest and how these play out across categories. We look at opinions shared on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter, via online review sites and forums, and offline. This reporting allows you to see which brands and topics generate the most conversations online and why. Women drive dairy alternatives Plant-based brands drive engagement Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who Beyond Meat, which focuses on meat alternatives with meat-like require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices. texture and taste, has become exceedingly popular over the last year and earned higher social engagement than its big name, meat- Instagram dominates plant-based inspiration focused competitors. Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who Consumers desire plant-based fast food require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices. Consumers’ desires for plant-based options do not end with sit- down restaurants; they also seek to capitalize on the convenience of fast food chains without giving up their plant-based food and drink. PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 9 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY PREVIOUS NEXT
CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 10 Canada Research Methodology Mintel is an independent market analysis research has been conducted using a Female, 18-24 6.9 139 company that prides itself on supplying device agnostic platform for online surveys objective information on a whole range of Female, 25-34 8.8 177 (ie respondents can now take surveys from markets and marketing issues. Female, 35-44 9.4 188 a smartphone in addition to a computer or There are six main sources of research that tablet). This methodology change may result Female, 45-54 8.7 174 are used in the compilation of Mintel reports: in data differences from previous years; any Female, 55-64 8.6 172 trending should be done with caution. • Consumer research Female, 65+ 8.5 170 Sampling • Social media research Total 100 2,000 Online Surveys • Desk research Lightspeed • Trade research Region % N Founded in 1996, Lightspeed's double Ontario 40.2 804 • Statistical forecasting opt-in U.S. online consumer panel contains Quebec 22.1 443 approximately 1.27 million U.S. consumers. British Columbia 13.3 265 Mintel reports are written and managed by Lightspeed recruits its panelists through Alberta 10.7 214 analysts with experience in the relevant many different sources including web Saskatchewan 3.0 61 markets. advertising, permission-based databases and partner-recruited panels. Note: Manitoba 4.8 95 Consumer research Lightspeed GMI was re-branded as Atlantic Provinces Lightspeed in September 2016. (New Brunswick, Newfoundland/ Exclusive and original quantitative 5.9 118 Labrador, Nova consumer research is commissioned Mintel sets quotas on age and gender, Scotia, Prince for almost all Mintel reports. In addition, region, and household income. Specific Edward Island) qualitative research is also undertaken for quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged a large proportion of reports in the form of 18+ are shown below. Total* 100 2,000 online discussion groups. Mintel invests a considerable sum each year in consumer Please note: these quotas are only *Mintel does not include rural regions such as the Yukon research, and the purchaser of a Mintel representative of a standard General or the Northwest Territories (including Nunavut) in its report benefits, as the price of an individual Population survey sample of 2,000 internet research. Thus the consumer research data does not report is less than the cost of the original users aged 18+. Sample size, targets, and reflect opinions and behaviours of the population living in research alone. The research brings an quotas may vary per report. Please see the those areas. up-to-date and unique insight into topical Report Appendix for further details. issues of importance. Household income % N Age groups by Less than $25,000 14.0 281 Consumer research is conducted among a % N gender $25,000 - $49,999 20.8 416 nationally representative sample of internet $50,000 - $69,999 15.0 300 users in Canada and is carried out by Male, 18-24 7.9 158 $70,000 - $99,999 17.8 356 Lightspeed. The results are only available in Male, 25-34 9.1 181 $100,000 and over 32.4 647 Mintel reports. Note that Mintel’s exclusive research is conducted online in both English Male, 35-44 10.4 207 and French. Male, 45-54 8.1 163 Total 100 2,000 Male, 55-64 6.1 123 Starting in July 2017, Mintel’s consumer Secondary Data Analysis Male, 65+ 7.4 148 PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 11 In addition to exclusively commissioned This is a statistical visualisation method for TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach & surveys, Mintel gathers syndicated data picturing the associations between rows Frequency) analysis identifies the mix from the most respected consumer (image, attitudes) and columns (brands, of features, attributes, or messages that research firms. This allows Mintel analysts products, segments, etc.) of a two-way will attract the largest number of unique to form objective and cohesive analyses contingency table. It allows us to display respondents. It is typically used when the of consumer attitudes and behaviour. brand images (and/or consumer attitudes number of features or attributes must be Qualitative Research towards brands) related to each brand or should be limited, but the goal is still to covered in this survey in a joint space that reach the widest possible audience. By Revelation by FocusVision is easy to understand. The significance of identifying the Total Unduplicated Reach, the relationship between a brand and its it is possible to maximize the number FocusVision provides Mintel with qualitative associated image is measured using the of people who find one or more of their bulletin board software. This allows the Chi-square test. If two brands have similar preferred features or attributes in the creation of Internet-based, ‘virtual’ venues response patterns regarding their perceived product line. The resulting output from where participants recruited from Mintel’s images, they are assigned similar scores TURF is additive, with each additional online surveys gather and engage in on underlying dimensions and will then feature increasing total reach. The chart interactive, text-based discussions led by be displayed close to each other in the is read from left to right, with each arrow Mintel moderators. perceptual map. indicating the incremental change in total reach when adding a new feature. The final Further Analysis CHAID analysis bar represents the maximum reach of the total population when all shown features are Mintel employs numerous quantitative data CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction offered. analysis techniques to enhance the value Detection), a type of decision tree analysis, of our consumer research. The techniques is used to highlight key target groups in a Social Media Research used vary form one report to another. Below sample by identifying which sub-groups describes some of the more commonly used are more likely to show a particular To complement its exclusive consumer techniques. characteristic. This analysis subdivides the research, Mintel tracks and analyses social sample into a series of subgroups that share media data for inclusion in selected reports. Repertoire Analysis similar characteristics towards a specific Using Infegy’s Atlas software, Mintel ‘listens response variable and allows us to identify in’ on online conversations across a range This is used to create consumer groups which combinations have the highest of social platforms including Facebook, based on reported behaviour or attitudes. response rates for the target variable. It is Twitter, consumer forums and the wider Consumer responses of the same value commonly used to understand and visualise web. (or list of values) across a list of survey the relationship between a variable of items are tallied into a single variable. interest such as “interest in trying a new Atlas provides rich consumer insight via The repertoire variable summarises the product” and other characteristics of the the analysis of commentary posted publicly number of occurrences in which the value sample, such as demographic composition. on the internet. The system performs or values appear among a list of survey comprehensive and broad collection of items. For example, a repertoire of brand Key Driver Analysis data from millions of internet sources, purchasing might produce groups of those working to ensure a faithful and extensive that purchase 1-2 brands, 3-4 brands and 5 Key driver analysis can be a useful tool in sampling of feedback from the widest or more brands. Each subgroup should be helping to prioritise focus between different range of individuals. The dataset contains large enough (ie N=75+) to analyse. factors which may impact key performance commentary posted in real time, as well as indicators (eg satisfaction, likelihood to a substantial archive dating back through Cluster Analysis switch providers, likelihood to recommend 2007. a brand, etc). Using correlations analysis This technique assigns a set of individual or regression analysis we can get an Trade research people in to groups called clusters on the understanding of which factors or attributes basis of one or more question responses, of a market have the strongest association Informal so that respondents within the same cluster or “link” with a positive performance on are in some sense closer or more similar to key performance indicators (KPIs). Hence, Trade research is undertaken for all reports. one another than to respondents that were we are able to identify which factors or This involves contacting relevant players grouped into a different cluster. attributes are relatively more critical in a in the trade, not only to gain information market category compared to others and concerning their own operations, but also Correspondence Analysis ensures that often limited resources can be to obtain explanations and views of the allocated to focusing on the main market strategic issues pertinent to the market drivers. being researched. Such is Mintel’s concern with accuracy that draft copies of reports are TURF Analysis sent to industry representatives, to get their PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 12 feedback and avoid any misrepresentation as Statistics Canada and the Canadian forecast are collated in Mintel’s own market of the market. These comments are Grocer. Other information is also gathered size database and supplemented by macro- incorporated into reports prior to final from store and exhibition visits across and socio-economic data sourced from publication. Canada, as well as using other databases organisations such as Statistics Canada, within the Mintel Group, such as the Global The Bank of Canada, The Conference Formal New Product Database (GNPD), which Board of Canada and the Economist Internally, Mintel’s analysts undertake monitors FMCG sales promotions. Intelligence Unit. extensive trade interviews with selected key experts in the field for the majority of All analysts have access to Mintel’s Market Within the forecasting process, the model reports. The purpose of these interviews Size and Macroeconomic Databases – searches for, and analyses relationships is to assess key issues in the market a database containing many areas of between, actual market sizes and a place in order to ensure that any research consumer spending and retail sales as well selection of key economic and demographic undertaken takes these into account. as macroeconomic and demographic factors factors (independent variables) in order to which impinge on consumer spending identify those predictors having the most In addition, using experienced external patterns.. influence on the market. researchers, trade research is undertaken for some reports. This takes the form of The database is used in conjunction with Factors used in a forecast are stated in full trade interview questionnaires and an SPSS forecasting program which uses the relevant report section alongside an direct quotes are included in the report and weighted historical correlations of market interpretation of their role in explaining the analysed by experts in the field. This gives a dynamics, with independent variables, to development in demand for the product or valuable insight into a range of trade views produce future spending scenarios. market in question. of topical issues. Statistical Forecasting Qualitative insight Desk research Statistical modelling At Mintel we understand that historic data is Mintel has an internal team of market limited in its capacity to act as the only force analysts who monitor: government statistics, For the majority of reports, Mintel produces behind the future state of markets. Thus, consumer and trade association statistics, five-year forecasts based on an advanced rich qualitative insights from industry experts manufacturer sponsored reports, annual statistical technique known as ‘multivariate regarding past and future events that may company reports and accounts, directories, time series auto-regression’ using the impact the market play a crucial role in our press articles from around the world and statistical software package SPSS. post statistical modeling evaluation process. online databases. The latter are extracted from hundreds of publications and websites, Historical market size data feeding into each both Canada and overseas. All information is cross-referenced for immediate access. Data from other published sources are the latest available at the time of writing the report. This information is supplemented by an extensive library of Mintel’s reports produced since 1972 globally and added to each year by the 500+ reports which are produced annually. In addition to in-house sources, researchers also occasionally use outside libraries such PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13 As a result, the Mintel forecast allows for fall within these outer limits, which we call Weather analogy additional factors or market conditions the best and worst case forecasts. These, outside of the capacity of the data analysis based on the statistically driven forecast, To illustrate uncertainty in forecasting in to impact the market forecast model, using are the highest (best case) and lowest an everyday example, let us assume the a rigorous statistical process complemented (worst case) market sizes the market is following weather forecast was produced by in-depth market knowledge and expected to achieve. based on the meteorologists’ current expertise. knowledge of the previous weather condition Over the next five years, the widening during the last few days, atmospheric The Mintel fan chart bands successively show the developments observations, incoming weather fronts etc. that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50% Forecasts of future economic outcomes probability intervals. Statistical processes Now, how accurate is this forecast and how are always subject to uncertainty. In order predict the central forecast to fall within the certain can we be that the temperature on to raise awareness amongst our clients darker shaded area which illustrates 50% Saturday will indeed be 15°C? and to illustrate this uncertainty, Mintel has probability, i.e. a 5 in 10 chance. introduced a new way of displaying market To state that the temperature in central size forecasts in the form of a fan-chart. A general conclusion: Based on our current London on Saturday will rise to exactly 15°C knowledge of given historic market size data is possible but one can’t be 100% certain Next to historical market sizes and a current as well as projections for key macro- and about that fact. year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the socio-economic measures that were used to probability of various outcomes for the create the forecast, we can assume that in To say the temperature on Saturday will market value/volume over the next five 95% of the time the actual market size will be between 13°C and 17°C is a broader years. fall within the purple shaded fan. In 5% of all statement and much more probable. cases this model might not be correct due At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying to random errors and the actual market size In general, we can say that based on the that 95 out of 100 times the forecast will will fall out of these boundaries. existing statistical model, one can be 95% certain that the temperature on Saturday will be between 13°C and 17°C, and respectively 50% certain it will be between about 14.5°C and 15.5°C. Again, only in 5% of all cases this model might not be correct due to random errors and the actual temperature on Saturday will fall out of these boundaries and thus will be below 13°C or above 17°C. (To learn more about uncertainty in weather forecasts visit: http://research.metoffice.gov. uk/research/nwp/ensemble/uncertainty.html) PREVIOUS © Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved. NEXT
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