ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER - CANADA, FEBRUARY 2019 - Mintel

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER - CANADA, FEBRUARY 2019 - Mintel
ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER
CANADA, FEBRUARY 2019

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER - CANADA, FEBRUARY 2019 - Mintel
ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                                                                 2

Overview
What you need to know                                                     Definitions

The majority (58%) of Canadians participated in making at least           For the purposes of this Report, “arts and crafts” describe projects
one type of arts/craft activity in 2018. Although engagement is likely    made by consumers for recreational or commercial purposes, either
more sporadic for most, the process of making arts and crafts meets       using a kit or from base materials.
a number of wellness benefits for consumers including relaxation
and bonding with family or friends. Younger and older consumers           Relevant items in this category include:
differ in their preference and approach to crafting, suggesting that
the industry is experiencing a shift in the approach and the preferred    • Photo crafts (eg photography, scrapbooking)
environment for making arts/crafts. With consumers leveraging the
internet for ideas and inspiration, considerations in reducing steps      • Knitting or crocheting
from exploration to purchase will be necessary.
                                                                          • Sewing crafts (eg quilting, embroidery)

                                                                          • Painting

                                                                          • Drawing/colouring (eg calligraphy, colouring books)

                                                                          • Home/event decorating

                                                                          • Paper crafts (eg card making, origami)

                                                                          • Cake/dessert decorating

                                                                          • Kids’ crafts (eg making slime, nebula jars)

                                                                          • Tech crafting (eg 3D printing, program-assisted drawing).

                                                                          Crafters: respondents who have made any type of art or craft
                                                                          evaluated by the survey within the past 12 months (leading up to
                                                                          December 2018).

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                                                                           3

REPORT CONTENT
 Overview
     What you need to know
     Definitions

 Executive Summary
     The issues
          Figure 1: Frequency of making arts/crafts, December 2018
          Figure 2: Preference for making arts craft by oneself vs enjoyment of the social aspect of arts/crafting in a group, by age, December 2018
          Figure 3: Store type where arts/craft supplies are purchased, by art/crafting skill level, December 2018
     The opportunities
          Figure 4: Select attitudes towards making arts and crafts, fathers with under-18s at home vs mothers, December 2018
          Figure 5: Select attitudes towards making arts and crafts, December 2018
          Figure 6: Online sources used for arts/crafts inspiration, December 2018
     What it means

 The Market – What You Need to Know
     Improved financial confidence means more room for enjoyable activities
     Mental wellness is more of a priority for young Canadians
     A shifting retail landscape will put pressure on craft specialty retailers

 Market Factors
     Improved economy sees more willing to spend on personal interests
          Figure 7: Perception of financial health, January/February 2016-18
     Family fun happens on a budget
          Figure 8: Monthly entertainment budget, November 2017
     Younger consumers prioritize their mental health
          Figure 9: Importance of personal wellness types (ranked 1st), by age, March 2016
     Changes in Canada’s retail landscape will put pressure on craft specialty retailers

 Key Players – What You Need to Know
     Canadians are into card making, paper crafts and home décor
     Societal shifts make for all the right ‘materials’ for the sector
     The current positioning of the category is limiting
     Old trends make a return, possibly so will old skills

 What’s Artful and Crafty?
     Card making, paper crafts and home décor are hot topics for Canadians
          Figure 10: Top arts and crafts topics on Instagram, Canada, January 1 – December 31, 2018
          Figure 11: Top arts and crafts topics on Pinterest, Canada, January 1 – December 31, 2018
     Societal changes combined with shifts in the category make for all the right ‘materials’
          Figure 12: Any arts/crafts made in past 12 months (net), by age, December 2018
          Figure 13: ‘To learn a new hobby’ as reason to make arts/crafts in past 12 months, by age, December 2018

 What Could Benefit from Colouring Outside the Lines?
     The category confines itself inside traditional lines
          Figure 14: Any arts/crafts made in past 12 months (net) – men, by age, December 2018
          Figure 15: Scott Living Custom Frame Collection at Michaels | Scott Brothers, March 2018

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                                                                            4

 What’s Next?
     What’s old is new again
          Figure 16: Water Bottle Flower Paint Pouring, February 2018
          Figure 17: The Spring-Summer 2019 Haute Couture Collection Know-how, January 2019

 The Consumer – What You Need to Know
     Many claim to be crafters though participation is sporadic
     Consumers connect arts/crafting to mental health benefits
     YouTube is a key resource for crafters
     Dollar stores have the edge when it comes to buying arts/crafts supplies
     Lack of interest is the biggest barrier to entry

 Making Arts and Crafts: Skills and Frequency
     Most have partaken, though participation is likely sporadic
          Figure 18: Types of arts/crafts made in past 12 months, December 2018
          Figure 19: Frequency of making arts/crafts and skill level, December 2018
     Current positioning may be hindering engagement amongst young men
          Figure 20: Any arts/crafts made in past 12 months (net), by gender and age, December 2018
          Figure 21: Acquisition email, Clinique, October 2017
          Figure 22: Skincare Tutorial by Kris Smith, October 2017
     Parents, regardless of gender, are engaged and want more
          Figure 23: Any arts/crafts made in past 12 months (net), parent of under-18s at home vs not a parent, December 2018
          Figure 24: Tinker Crate and Kiwi Crate Project Compilation | Monthly Science & Art Projects for Kids, October 2018
     Chinese Canadians are keen on photo crafts
          Figure 25: Made photo crafts in past 12 months, Chinese Canadians vs overall, December 2018
     Arts/crafts more likely to be an interest of the LGBTQ community
          Figure 26: Select types of arts/crafts made in past 12 months, LGBTQ vs overall, December 2018

 Reasons for Making Arts and Crafts
     Relaxation is a key motivator
          Figure 27: Select attitudes towards making arts and crafts, December 2018
     Making arts and crafts hits many mental health components for women
          Figure 28: Reasons for making arts and crafts – women, December 2018
     For parents, arts/crafting is an avenue for quality time with the kids
          Figure 29: ‘Make something for myself’ as a reason for making arts and crafts, parents with under-18s at home vs those who are not parents,
          December 2018
     Fathers are happy to share their handiwork online – reward them for doing so
          Figure 30: Select attitudes towards making arts and crafts, fathers with under-18s at home vs mothers, December 2018
          Figure 31: Entertaining Tray Game Changer, January 2018
          Figure 32: Entertaining Tray Highlight of the Night, January 2018

 Solo vs Social Arts and Crafting
     There is a preference to take on arts/crafting as a solo pursuit
          Figure 33: Solo vs social preference for making arts and crafts by oneself (% agree), December 2018
     Younger consumers more appreciative of the social side of arts/crafting
          Figure 34: Agreement with ‘I enjoy the social aspect of doing arts/crafts’, by age, December 2018

 Arts and Crafts Ideas and Inspiration Sources
     Consumers are turning to YouTube for ideas and instructions
          Figure 35: Leveraging the internet for ideas and instructions for arts/crafts projects (% agree), December 2018
          Figure 36: Online sources used for arts/crafts inspiration, December 2018
          Figure 37: DIY Gift Boxes & Bags, January 2017
     YouTube is a key avenue to connecting with dads
          Figure 38: Online sources used for arts/crafts inspiration, fathers with under-18s at home vs mothers, December 2018
          Figure 39: John Legend’s “Stinky Booty” Song with Pampers, June 2018
     Shoppable posts on Instagram will generate traction amongst 18-34s
          Figure 40: Using Instagram for arts/crafts inspiration, by age, December 2018

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                                                               5

 Shopping for Arts and Crafts Supplies
     General retailers are winning out
          Figure 41: Store type where arts/craft supplies are purchased, December 2018
     Growing presence of discount stores is putting pressure on specialty craft retailers
          Figure 42: Store type where arts/craft supplies are purchased, by art/crafting skill level, December 2018
          Figure 43: Frame Game | The Scott Brothers, January 2019
     Cost and convenience matter to moms
          Figure 44: Store type where arts/craft supplies are purchased, mothers with under-18s at home vs overall, December 2018
          Figure 45: Linked Heart Garland, February 2016

 Barriers to Arts and Crafting
          Figure 46: Barriers to making arts and crafts, December 2018
     Consumers today seek new challenges so appeal to their interests
     Time is the primary issue for 18-24s
          Figure 47: ‘I don’t have time’ as a barrier to making arts/crafts, by age, December 2018

 Crafter Consumer Segmentation
     Crafters vary on approach and enthusiasm
          Figure 48: Crafter consumer segments, December 2018
     The Solo Crafter (29%)
     The Social Crafter (39%)
     The Occasional Dabbler (32%)

 Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
     Data sources
     Abbreviations and terms

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                        6

DATABOOK CONTENT
Standard demographics you can expect to see tracked in our Databooks:

•   Age and income
•   Age
•   Area
•   Born in Canada
•   Children in household
•   Education
•   Employment
•   Family structure
•   Financial situation
•   Gender and age
•   Gender and marital status
•   Gender
•   Generation
•   Household income
•   Household size
•   Housing situation
•   Language primarily spoken in the home
•   Marital status
•   Mobile device ownership
•   Number of children of any age in household
•   Number of children under 18 in household
•   Parental status by gender
•   Parental status
•   Race and origin
•   Race
•   Region
•   Sexual orientation
•   Social media
•   Visit social media websites daily
•   Visit social media websites weekly

Consumer Research

Q1 Types of arts and crafts made in past 12 months
Q1 Types of arts and crafts made in past 12 months, by demographics
Q2 Barriers to making arts and crafts
Q2 Barriers to making arts and crafts, by demographics
Q3 Arts and crafting skill level
Q3 Arts and crafting skill level, by demographics
Q4 Store types where purchase arts and craft supplies
Q4 Store types where purchase arts and craft supplies, by demographics
Q5 Reasons for making arts and crafts
Q5 Reasons for making arts and crafts, by demographics
Q6 Attitudes towards making arts and crafts (NET - any agree)
Q6 Attitudes towards making arts and crafts (NET - any agree), by demographics
Q7 Online sources for arts/crafts ideas and inspiration
Q7 Online sources for arts/crafts ideas and inspiration, by demographics

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ARTS AND CRAFTS CONSUMER, CANADA - FEBRUARY 2019                                                             7

Q8 Number of separate art/craft projects worked on in the last 12 months (NET)
Q8 Number of separate art/craft projects worked on in the last 12 months (NET), by demographics

Demographics By Demographics

Demographics by demographics

Further Analysis

F1 Arts and crafts segments - cluster analysis

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8

RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                                   9

Canada Research Methodology
Mintel is an independent market analysis
                                                 research has been conducted using a            Female, 18-24                    6.9             139
company that prides itself on supplying
                                                 device agnostic platform for online surveys
objective information on a whole range of                                                       Female, 25-34                    8.8             177
                                                 (ie respondents can now take surveys from
markets and marketing issues.                                                                   Female, 35-44                    9.4             188
                                                 a smartphone in addition to a computer or
There are six main sources of research that      tablet). This methodology change may result    Female, 45-54                    8.7             174
are used in the compilation of Mintel reports:   in data differences from previous years; any
                                                                                                Female, 55-64                    8.6             172
                                                 trending should be done with caution.
• Consumer research                                                                             Female, 65+                      8.5             170
                                                 Sampling
• Social media research                                                                         Total                            100           2,000
                                                 Online Surveys
• Desk research
                                                 Lightspeed
• Trade research                                                                                Region                            %               N
                                                 Founded in 1996, Lightspeed's double           Ontario                          40.2            804
• Statistical forecasting                        opt-in U.S. online consumer panel contains     Quebec                           22.1            443
                                                 approximately 1.27 million U.S. consumers.     British Columbia                 13.3            265
Mintel reports are written and managed by        Lightspeed recruits its panelists through
                                                                                                Alberta                          10.7            214
analysts with experience in the relevant         many different sources including web
                                                                                                Saskatchewan                      3.0            61
markets.                                         advertising, permission-based databases
                                                 and partner-recruited panels. Note:            Manitoba                          4.8            95
Consumer research                                Lightspeed GMI was re-branded as               Atlantic Provinces
                                                 Lightspeed in September 2016.                  (New Brunswick,
                                                                                                Newfoundland/
Exclusive and original quantitative                                                                                               5.9            118
                                                                                                Labrador, Nova
consumer research is commissioned                Mintel sets quotas on age and gender,
                                                                                                Scotia, Prince
for almost all Mintel reports. In addition,      region, and household income. Specific         Edward Island)
qualitative research is also undertaken for      quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged
a large proportion of reports in the form of     18+ are shown below.                           Total*                           100            2,000
online discussion groups. Mintel invests a
considerable sum each year in consumer           Please note: these quotas are only             *Mintel does not include rural regions such as the Yukon
research, and the purchaser of a Mintel          representative of a standard General           or the Northwest Territories (including Nunavut) in its
report benefits, as the price of an individual   Population survey sample of 2,000 internet     research. Thus the consumer research data does not
report is less than the cost of the original     users aged 18+. Sample size, targets, and      reflect opinions and behaviours of the population living in
research alone. The research brings an           quotas may vary per report. Please see the     those areas.
up-to-date and unique insight into topical       Report Appendix for further details.
issues of importance.                                                                            Household income                    %             N
                                                 Age groups by                                  Less than $25,000                   14.0          281
Consumer research is conducted among a                                      %             N
                                                 gender                                         $25,000 - $49,999                   20.8          416
nationally representative sample of internet
                                                                                                $50,000 - $69,999                   15.0          300
users in Canada and is carried out by            Male, 18-24               7.9           158
                                                                                                $70,000 - $99,999                   17.8          356
Lightspeed. The results are only available in    Male, 25-34               9.1           181    $100,000 and over                   32.4          647
Mintel reports. Note that Mintel’s exclusive
research is conducted online in both English     Male, 35-44               10.4          207
and French.                                      Male, 45-54               8.1           163    Total                               100          2,000

                                                 Male, 55-64               6.1           123
Starting in July 2017, Mintel’s consumer                                                        Secondary Data Analysis
                                                 Male, 65+                 7.4           148

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                 10

In addition to exclusively commissioned        This is a statistical visualisation method for   TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach &
surveys, Mintel gathers syndicated data        picturing the associations between rows          Frequency) analysis identifies the mix
from the most respected consumer               (image, attitudes) and columns (brands,          of features, attributes, or messages that
research firms. This allows Mintel analysts    products, segments, etc.) of a two-way           will attract the largest number of unique
to form objective and cohesive analyses        contingency table. It allows us to display       respondents. It is typically used when the
of consumer attitudes and behaviour.           brand images (and/or consumer attitudes          number of features or attributes must be
Qualitative Research                           towards brands) related to each brand            or should be limited, but the goal is still to
                                               covered in this survey in a joint space that     reach the widest possible audience. By
Revelation by FocusVision                      is easy to understand. The significance of       identifying the Total Unduplicated Reach,
                                               the relationship between a brand and its         it is possible to maximize the number
FocusVision provides Mintel with qualitative   associated image is measured using the           of people who find one or more of their
bulletin board software. This allows the       Chi-square test. If two brands have similar      preferred features or attributes in the
creation of Internet-based, ‘virtual’ venues   response patterns regarding their perceived      product line. The resulting output from
where participants recruited from Mintel’s     images, they are assigned similar scores         TURF is additive, with each additional
online surveys gather and engage in            on underlying dimensions and will then           feature increasing total reach. The chart
interactive, text-based discussions led by     be displayed close to each other in the          is read from left to right, with each arrow
Mintel moderators.                             perceptual map.                                  indicating the incremental change in total
                                                                                                reach when adding a new feature. The final
Further Analysis                               CHAID analysis                                   bar represents the maximum reach of the
                                                                                                total population when all shown features are
Mintel employs numerous quantitative data      CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction         offered.
analysis techniques to enhance the value       Detection), a type of decision tree analysis,
of our consumer research. The techniques       is used to highlight key target groups in a      Social Media Research
used vary form one report to another. Below    sample by identifying which sub-groups
describes some of the more commonly used       are more likely to show a particular             To complement its exclusive consumer
techniques.                                    characteristic. This analysis subdivides the     research, Mintel tracks and analyses social
                                               sample into a series of subgroups that share     media data for inclusion in selected reports.
Repertoire Analysis                            similar characteristics towards a specific       Using Infegy’s Atlas software, Mintel ‘listens
                                               response variable and allows us to identify      in’ on online conversations across a range
This is used to create consumer groups         which combinations have the highest              of social platforms including Facebook,
based on reported behaviour or attitudes.      response rates for the target variable. It is    Twitter, consumer forums and the wider
Consumer responses of the same value           commonly used to understand and visualise        web.
(or list of values) across a list of survey    the relationship between a variable of
items are tallied into a single variable.      interest such as “interest in trying a new       Atlas provides rich consumer insight via
The repertoire variable summarises the         product” and other characteristics of the        the analysis of commentary posted publicly
number of occurrences in which the value       sample, such as demographic composition.         on the internet. The system performs
or values appear among a list of survey                                                         comprehensive and broad collection of
items. For example, a repertoire of brand      Key Driver Analysis                              data from millions of internet sources,
purchasing might produce groups of those                                                        working to ensure a faithful and extensive
that purchase 1-2 brands, 3-4 brands and 5     Key driver analysis can be a useful tool in      sampling of feedback from the widest
or more brands. Each subgroup should be        helping to prioritise focus between different    range of individuals. The dataset contains
large enough (ie N=75+) to analyse.            factors which may impact key performance         commentary posted in real time, as well as
                                               indicators (eg satisfaction, likelihood to       a substantial archive dating back through
Cluster Analysis                               switch providers, likelihood to recommend        2007.
                                               a brand, etc). Using correlations analysis
This technique assigns a set of individual     or regression analysis we can get an             Trade research
people in to groups called clusters on the     understanding of which factors or attributes
basis of one or more question responses,       of a market have the strongest association       Informal
so that respondents within the same cluster    or “link” with a positive performance on
are in some sense closer or more similar to    key performance indicators (KPIs). Hence,        Trade research is undertaken for all reports.
one another than to respondents that were      we are able to identify which factors or         This involves contacting relevant players
grouped into a different cluster.              attributes are relatively more critical in a     in the trade, not only to gain information
                                               market category compared to others and           concerning their own operations, but also
Correspondence Analysis                        ensures that often limited resources can be      to obtain explanations and views of the
                                               allocated to focusing on the main market         strategic issues pertinent to the market
                                               drivers.                                         being researched. Such is Mintel’s concern
                                                                                                with accuracy that draft copies of reports are
                                               TURF Analysis                                    sent to industry representatives, to get their

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                   11

feedback and avoid any misrepresentation         as Statistics Canada and the Canadian           forecast are collated in Mintel’s own market
of the market. These comments are                Grocer. Other information is also gathered      size database and supplemented by macro-
incorporated into reports prior to final         from store and exhibition visits across         and socio-economic data sourced from
publication.                                     Canada, as well as using other databases        organisations such as Statistics Canada,
                                                 within the Mintel Group, such as the Global     The Bank of Canada, The Conference
Formal                                           New Product Database (GNPD), which              Board of Canada and the Economist
Internally, Mintel’s analysts undertake          monitors FMCG sales promotions.                 Intelligence Unit.
extensive trade interviews with selected
key experts in the field for the majority of     All analysts have access to Mintel’s Market     Within the forecasting process, the model
reports. The purpose of these interviews         Size and Macroeconomic Databases –              searches for, and analyses relationships
is to assess key issues in the market            a database containing many areas of             between, actual market sizes and a
place in order to ensure that any research       consumer spending and retail sales as well      selection of key economic and demographic
undertaken takes these into account.             as macroeconomic and demographic factors        factors (independent variables) in order to
                                                 which impinge on consumer spending              identify those predictors having the most
In addition, using experienced external          patterns..                                      influence on the market.
researchers, trade research is undertaken
for some reports. This takes the form of         The database is used in conjunction with        Factors used in a forecast are stated in
full trade interview questionnaires and          an SPSS forecasting program which uses          the relevant report section alongside an
direct quotes are included in the report and     weighted historical correlations of market      interpretation of their role in explaining the
analysed by experts in the field. This gives a   dynamics, with independent variables, to        development in demand for the product or
valuable insight into a range of trade views     produce future spending scenarios.              market in question.
of topical issues.
                                                 Statistical Forecasting                         Qualitative insight
Desk research
                                                 Statistical modelling                           At Mintel we understand that historic data is
Mintel has an internal team of market                                                            limited in its capacity to act as the only force
analysts who monitor: government statistics,     For the majority of reports, Mintel produces    behind the future state of markets. Thus,
consumer and trade association statistics,       five-year forecasts based on an advanced        rich qualitative insights from industry experts
manufacturer sponsored reports, annual           statistical technique known as ‘multivariate    regarding past and future events that may
company reports and accounts, directories,       time series auto-regression’ using the          impact the market play a crucial role in our
press articles from around the world and         statistical software package SPSS.              post statistical modeling evaluation process.
online databases. The latter are extracted
from hundreds of publications and websites,      Historical market size data feeding into each
both Canada and overseas. All information
is cross-referenced for immediate access.

Data from other published sources are the
latest available at the time of writing the
report.

This information is supplemented by
an extensive library of Mintel’s reports
produced since 1972 globally and added
to each year by the 500+ reports which are
produced annually.

In addition to in-house sources, researchers
also occasionally use outside libraries such

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                    12

As a result, the Mintel forecast allows for      fall within these outer limits, which we call     Weather analogy
additional factors or market conditions          the best and worst case forecasts. These,
outside of the capacity of the data analysis     based on the statistically driven forecast,       To illustrate uncertainty in forecasting in
to impact the market forecast model, using       are the highest (best case) and lowest            an everyday example, let us assume the
a rigorous statistical process complemented      (worst case) market sizes the market is           following weather forecast was produced
by in-depth market knowledge and                 expected to achieve.                              based on the meteorologists’ current
expertise.                                                                                         knowledge of the previous weather condition
                                                 Over the next five years, the widening            during the last few days, atmospheric
The Mintel fan chart                             bands successively show the developments          observations, incoming weather fronts etc.
                                                 that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50%
Forecasts of future economic outcomes            probability intervals. Statistical processes      Now, how accurate is this forecast and how
are always subject to uncertainty. In order      predict the central forecast to fall within the   certain can we be that the temperature on
to raise awareness amongst our clients           darker shaded area which illustrates 50%          Saturday will indeed be 15°C?
and to illustrate this uncertainty, Mintel has   probability, i.e. a 5 in 10 chance.
introduced a new way of displaying market                                                          To state that the temperature in central
size forecasts in the form of a fan-chart.       A general conclusion: Based on our current        London on Saturday will rise to exactly 15°C
                                                 knowledge of given historic market size data      is possible but one can’t be 100% certain
Next to historical market sizes and a current    as well as projections for key macro- and         about that fact.
year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the     socio-economic measures that were used to
probability of various outcomes for the          create the forecast, we can assume that in        To say the temperature on Saturday will
market value/volume over the next five           95% of the time the actual market size will       be between 13°C and 17°C is a broader
years.                                           fall within the purple shaded fan. In 5% of all   statement and much more probable.
                                                 cases this model might not be correct due
At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying      to random errors and the actual market size       In general, we can say that based on the
that 95 out of 100 times the forecast will       will fall out of these boundaries.                existing statistical model, one can be 95%
                                                                                                   certain that the temperature on Saturday
                                                                                                   will be between 13°C and 17°C, and
                                                                                                   respectively 50% certain it will be between
                                                                                                   about 14.5°C and 15.5°C. Again, only in
                                                                                                   5% of all cases this model might not be
                                                                                                   correct due to random errors and the actual
                                                                                                   temperature on Saturday will fall out of
                                                                                                   these boundaries and thus will be below
                                                                                                   13°C or above 17°C.

                                                                                                   (To learn more about uncertainty in weather
                                                                                                   forecasts visit: http://research.metoffice.gov.
                                                                                                   uk/research/nwp/ensemble/uncertainty.html)

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