Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn's guide to the 2015 General Election
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FISHBURN 1 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election
FISHBURN 1 Contents About Fishburn 2 Foreword 3 The Long Campaign 4 The election nobody can win? 4 What the polls are telling us – Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes 7 Business focused on UK political risk – Ian Stewart, Chief Economist, Deloitte 8 The Rubik’s cube election – Damian McBride, Former Special Adviser to Gordon Brown 10 Politics and business can be a dangerous combination – Rachel Sylvester, Political Columnist, The Times 11 The election that could have been? – Stephen Bush, Assistant Comment Editor, The Daily Telegraph 13 The air-war versus the ground-war – Rafael Behr, Chief Political Columnist, The Guardian 14 What can we expect from UKIP? – Dr Matthew Goodwin, Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham; Author, Revolt on the Right 15 Organised chaos? Post-election negotiations 16 How post-election negotiations will differ from 2010 16 Scenarios for a Conservative-led government – Isabel Hardman, Assistant Editor, The Spectator 19 Scenarios for a Labour-led government, George Eaton, Political Editor, New Statesman 20 Prospects for the next parliament 21 New leaders please 21 Successful minority government is about making broad alliances – Nick Pearce, Director, Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) 22 What this all means for the mechanisms of government – Akash Paun, Fellow, Institute for Government 23
2 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 3
About Fishburn Foreword
Fishburn is one of the most experienced The outcome of the next election is one of
communication consultancies in the UK, the most uncertain in living memory, with
and Public Affairs is central to what we do. the polls clearly pointing towards another
hung parliament.
We are able to offer either dedicated political consultancy or a totally integrated However, unlike in 2010, there’s a strong possibility that the combined seat tally of
approach, drawing on our expertise in media relations, social media, campaigning, two parties may not be enough to form a stable administration.
behaviour change and crisis management. We have worked in virtually every sector,
from transport, public service reform and infrastructure to financial services, Whether we’re entering a sustained period of multi-party government remains to be
retailing, and food and drink. seen. But we can be confident that whatever Government emerges in May, it’s unlikely
to be as stable as the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition that’s governed since 2010. And
Whether it’s undertaking a highly focused advocacy campaign, helping influence we know that the role of business will remain centre-stage.
broader stakeholder audiences, or shaping the climate of popular opinion, we bring a
creative and tailored approach. With the prospect of a weakened prime minister presiding over deals between
multiple parties, a second coalition, a minority government, or – less likely – a
Our approach to public affairs consultancy combines sound strategy based on government with a small majority, we’re facing the most unpredictable political period
first-hand political insights, thorough research and first-class policy analysis, with since the 1970s. It’s no wonder then that Whitehall has stepped up its contingency
practical advice and programmes that engage, influence and achieve results. planning, and that Deloitte’s recent survey of CFOs cited the election as the biggest
single risk to business in 2015.
In December 2014, we were named the ‘Consultancy of the Year’ at the Public
Affairs Awards. In such a complex environment, where day-to-day politics and political survival
will increasingly take precedence over long-term policy, it’s vital to understand
what will drive and influence decision-making. To help you do this, Planning
for Uncertainty sets out contributions from some of the UK’s leading political
commentators, together with expert insight from the Fishburn team – we hope you
find it useful as you prepare for the months ahead.
Rory Scanlan
Managing Director, Public Affairs
E: rory.scanlan@thisisfishburn.com
T: +44 (0)20 7092 2222
4 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 5
The Long Campaign –
The election nobody can win?
This is an election that nobody in Westminster is confident of winning;
and for good reason. The shake-up of the party system, the failure of the
Conservatives to secure boundary reform and the inability of either main
party to reach much beyond their ‘core’, means that an overall majority
government looks to be a long shot.
The fact that, for the first time, we have known for the past five There are so many factors that make the next election so This decline of the political duopoly has been accompanied by a rise in minor parties:
years when the next election will be, means that we’re in the unpredictable and so fascinating. But the most important is
middle of the longest election campaign in memory. the near breakdown of the two-party system that’s been in • The SNP now represent a near dominant force in Scotland, • This is all happening at the same time as the Lib Dem vote is
place since the 1920s. In 1951, the two major parties polled with recent polling by Lord Ashcroft suggesting that Labour failing to recover from their U-turn on tuition fees.
97% of the vote between them. By the last election that share could face humiliation in Scotland with once rock-solid seats
During the long election campaign, politicians and had fallen to 65%. Polls taken in recent months have seen both being under threat
advisers will be focused on partisan advantage and they parties fall below a combined share of 60%. The chart below
The main political parties have all lost
will not be receptive to attention-grabbing demands, shows this dramatic decline in support for the major parties. • UKIP have been persistently polling in the teens support to the smaller parties since 2010.
unless the issues are genuinely top of their agenda. In Commentators have called it the most important chart in
• The Greens have become a persistent thorn in Labour’s side, The ComRes charts below demonstrate
Whitehall however, officials will be busy preparing briefs British politics and they have a good point:
for the next incoming government whatever its political
threatening to peel off a sizeable chunk of the anti-austerity where this support has gone.
vote
composition.
Chart 1 – Combined vote share
Use this time to track the campaigns, while remembering
that raw politics will influence any announcements. Use
of Labour and Conservatives Where have 2010 voters gone?
the run-up to the election to brief officials on issues that
align with department priorities while providing further
since 1945
insights on effective implementation.
The sheer length of the campaign, combined with a bored and 3%
restless media and an uninterested public, means that parties 5% 1%
6% 7%
can easily lose control of the campaign agenda. All of this 15%
means that the coming months will be highly unpredictable,
making effective planning of paramount importance for 1%
7% 30%
organisations. 15%
3% 13%
Given the next government will possibly be formed as a 3%
result of horse-trading between a variety of parties, simply 10%
studying the plans and manifestos of the main parties is 76% 70%
no longer enough. Undertake detailed scenario planning 22%
for the real possibility of a multi-party government.
This matters because there’s every sign that the political system 9%
has simply failed to keep up with the changing behaviour of the
Consider the priorities and which policies might be
electorate, now far less ‘tribal’, and also less likely to regard an
jettisoned in the bargaining process of negotiations.
election as a straightforward binary choice.
Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Other Don’t know
Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent; Base: 6,024 British adults, aggregated over 6 waves of ComRes telephone voting
intention polls, May-Oct 2014
6 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 7
What the polls
are telling us
With tribal loyalty at an all-time low, pollsters are unsure about majority looks increasingly out of reach for both parties. Many
who is going to turn out on polling day for any given party. commentators suggest that Britain is witnessing a return to
The chart below from ComRes shows how, at the start of 2015, the 1970s – a decade dominated by political instability, with
there are still a large number of voters for each party that may two inconclusive elections in one year – 1974. Indeed, it isn’t
change their mind as to who they will vote for on 7 May. This beyond the realms of possibility that Ed Miliband could end
reinforces just how unpredictable this election will be. up in Downing Street with a lower share of the vote than the
Conservatives.
Tom Mludzinski,
All still to play for A year ago, Ed Miliband was derided for adopting a Head of Political Polling, ComRes
35% strategy, but that now looks like a pipe dream. The
Q. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following Conservatives, too, look unlikely to top that 35% figure and @tom_ComRes
statements? ‘I may still change my mind about who to vote for both parties are fighting what could be described as a ‘core
at the general election’ and ‘I have definitely decided how I will vote’ campaign – Tories focusing on the economy, tax cuts,
vote at the next general election’ The 2015 General election is like no other in recent memory. challenging the Liberal Democrats to be the third largest party
Europe and immigration, and Labour concentrating attention
on the NHS and the creation of a ‘fairer’ economy. However, it’s Many of the rules, precedents and expectations we knew to be in the Commons.
64% clear that the narrative of this long campaign could quickly be true at previous elections no longer apply.
46%
moved off course by events, particularly if the debates happen. How well the Lib Dems actually do is a further unknown. The
Uniform national swing (UNS) has been a handy way of air time they will enjoy during the campaign will be greater
The parties are actively preparing for a hung parliament. Even translating vote share into the number of House of Commons than their poll numbers merit. Their status as a party of
63% if either major party wins an overall majority, it is unlikely to seats the parties will win. UNS is based on the assumption that government gives them profile but hinders their traditional
56% the swing between the two main parties in a national poll will propensity to pick up protest votes.
be a ‘working’ one. Cameron is almost certain to come under
Definitely decided pressure from his backbenchers who have become used to be reflected – on average – in every seat across the country. Of
how I will vote in the
rebellion. Miliband will have to push through some kind of course, that’s never going to happen exactly, but it has tended Those unaligned voters who might otherwise have gone
General Election orange will be fiercely fought over by UKIP and the Greens,
austerity when he has a good number of backbenchers who will to provide a good and useable estimate of how votes translated
oppose cuts. The stability of a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition into seats. whose profile is being pushed by the two main parties whose
Source: ComRes/Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror; Base 2,024
with a working majority might well be looked upon enviously respective votes are being split by these two upstarts.
British adults 18+, 14-15 January 2015
by whoever ends up in Downing Street after 7 May. ‘The increasingly fractured nature of the We are expecting just the second consecutive hung parliament
So, the only thing that’s certain about this election and its electorate has the electoral system creaking in 183 years, and the biggest unknown is just how vote
share will translate into seats. With both Labour and the
Given the uncertainty that lies ahead and the prospects aftermath is its uncertainty. at the seams’ Conservatives likely to fall short of 300 seats, who will they be
of another hung parliament, organisations must look able to strike a deal with that has enough seats to get them over
to engage an increasingly broad range of political the necessary 326 needed for a majority? Will one partner be
Sadly for poll watchers that is no longer the case. The
stakeholders, including in some cases the Greens, UKIP enough? What will the compromises and red lines be?
increasingly fractured nature of the electorate has the electoral
and the nationalist parties (although we are yet to hear
system creaking at the seams, making it far more difficult to
of any business approaching Respect’s sole MP for a A few things we do know. First the result will likely be a mess.
predict what will happen on a seat by seat basis on the grounds
meeting). In the event of a hung parliament, with both Second the ‘winner’ will be a weakened leader attempting
of national figures alone.
parties failing to top 300 seats and the Lib Dems losing to manage not only disgruntled backbenchers but also a
a proportion of their MPs, every vote may count when Take, for example, ComRes’ last poll in January which had the hotchpotch of a coalition. Third it is likely that the seats that
it comes to holding the government together, let alone Conservatives ahead of Labour by one point, UKIP in third many of the parties win will be unreflective of the number of
passing any significant legislation. and the Liberal Democrats down to 8%. The uninitiated reader votes cast, prompting calls for electoral reform.
might look at this and reasonably expect that the Conservatives
Get to know the smaller parties and understand their Whichever party or parties form the next government, the only
would win most seats, UKIP substantially more than either the
priorities and personalities. If there’s a multi-party outcome we can reasonably plan for is one which gives no less
Liberal Democrats, Greens or the SNP. The uninitiated reader
coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ deal, you can expect certainty after the election than we have right now.
would be wrong.
to spend a lot of time in SW1 as smaller parties, and
potentially individual MPs, could exert real influence. The Liberal Democrats are likely to save face thanks to the ComRes is the leading research consultancy specialising in
electoral system they tried to get rid of. Even if UKIP far Corporate Reputation, Public Policy and Communications.
outpoll Nick Clegg’s party, we’re likely to see around 30 ComRes bridge the worlds of research and communications.
The end result of these developments is an election that neither Liberal Democrats returned to Westminster compared to For more than a decade they have taken the latest
side is confident of winning and one in which a working overall only a handful of UKIP MPs, while Labour would have most developments in opinion research and tailored them to provide
seats but fail to get a majority. Furthermore the SNP would be organisations with evidence and insights, helping to inform
strategies, change behaviour and define debates.
8 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 9
Business focused on
UK political risk
Ian Stewart,
Chief Economist, Deloitte
The Global Financial Crisis ended a long era of growth and stability. Navigating Ian Stewart is a Partner
volatility became a central task for the corporate sector. Going into each year, from
2008 to 2013, our polling of Chief Financial Officers shows that the overriding
and Chief Economist
concern was the state of the UK economy. at Deloitte where
he advises Boards
The unexpectedly robust recovery in the UK economy which has unfolded since mid-
2013 has eased such worries. The new focus of concern is on UK politics and economic and companies on
weakness overseas. macroeconomics
‘CFOs see the General election as posing the biggest single
risk to business in 2015.’
The CFO Survey recorded a marked rise in corporate unease about the possible effects
of the General election in the fourth quarter of last year. CFOs see the General election
as posing the biggest single risk to business in 2015. CFOs weight a future referendum
on UK membership of the EU as being of equal risk to business as deflation and
weakness in the euro area, in joint second place on the list of worries.
The re-ordering of CFOs’ concerns partly reflects the improved condition of the UK
economy. A change of government and policies always brings with it risks. But the
salience of politics on CFOs list of concerns seems to reflect two new factors: the
rise of smaller political parties has increased the number of potential combinations
of parties in government, and the level of uncertainty; and the Conservative Party’s
commitment to a referendum on EU membership, along with the rise of UKIP,
increase the chances of UK withdrawal from the EU.
Private sector activity has been the principal driver of the UK’s recovery in the past
18 months. Given the scale of the UK public borrowing, government spending is
unlikely to make much of a contribution to growth for a long time to come. Private
sector activity will remain the engine of recovery through the next Parliament. The
past eight years provides ample evidence of the destructive effect of uncertainty on
business activity. Yet today prospects for the UK economy look bright. Hopes of a
recovery marked by investment, higher pay and job creation are heavily contingent
on whether the political parties can maintain the confidence of business through this
election year.
10 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 11
The Rubik’s Politics and business can be
cube election a dangerous combination
Rachel Sylvester,
Damian McBride The Times
@DPMcBride @RSylvesterTimes
British politics is increasingly looking like a Rubik’s cube. Damian McBride is a The election campaign has only reinforced the dangers of trying to mix business Rachel Sylvester writes
and politics. If a profit and loss account were to be produced measuring the political
We now have six parties whose success in filling up their side of the cube will affect former Whitehall civil parties’ dealings with the corporate world, the bottom line would be zero.
a weekly political
the election on 7 May: the big three, plus the SNP, UKIP and the Greens. servant and former special column for the Times.
But the game carries one simple lesson for all parties: whatever you do on your side
adviser to British prime Labour’s relationship with commerce has come under significant scrutiny –
following the claim by Stefano Pessina, the Boots boss, that Ed Miliband would be
affects what happens on the others in ways you might not have foreseen. minister Gordon Brown a ‘‘catastrophe’’ for Britain. Conservatives’ connections with wealth creators have
also been put under the spotlight with the leak of details of a massive tax avoidance
The Tories attack Europe in response to the threat from UKIP, but as a result more scandal at HSBC.
Lib Dems drift towards Labour in alarm at the prospect of a referendum.
Both parties reinforced the worst perceptions that already existed in the voters’
Labour reject scrapping Trident to stop a split on their own side, but that just helps the minds – for Labour, it was the sense that it cannot be trusted to run the economy ‘the relationship between
SNP and Greens portray them as no different from the Tories. ‘...a six-sided game of very competently, for the Tories, the fear that they are on the side of the rich at the expense politics and business...
complex, multi-layered of everybody else. The tit-for-tat tiffs over business simply underlined the fact that this
This takes us way past the era of triangulation into well, a six-sided game of very should be one of mutual
calculations.’ election is a clash of two terrible brands.
complex, multi-layered calculations. suspicion.’
Although the received wisdom at Westminster is that securing high profile business
The default response from 1997 vintage Blairites and 2005-era modernising Tories is
backing is a prerequisite to winning an election, in fact there are signs that public
that elections are won on the centre ground, and that’s where to stay. They might point
attitudes have changed since the economic crash. According to a YouGov poll,
out that the centre stickers on a Rubik’s cube never move.
significantly more people now believe that the Government should ‘stand up’ to
But where is the centre ground nowadays on immigration or Europe, on university big business than think ministers should support it – there is a margin of 49 to
fees or big business, on the right mix of borrowing or spending? Certainly not where it 31%. With bankers these days as despised as politicians, supermarkets accused of
was in 1997 or 2005. exploiting their suppliers and energy companies suspected of ripping off customers,
business endorsement is a double edged sword. Thoughtful politicians from all parties
Regional differences have also been exacerbated over the past two decades, making know that the rules of the game have changed and talk of clamping down on ‘crony
it ever more difficult for parties to carve out policies that seem ‘centrist’ in every capitalism’.
constituency where they’re standing, as the mansion tax shows.
The truth is that the relationship between politics and business, as between
In blunt terms, six-sided politics is making things a lot more complicated than they Westminster and the media, should be one of mutual suspicion. The interests of
used to be, and anyone with the strategic and tactical mastery to navigate a successful Government, which exists to protect taxpayers, and commerce, which is there to
outcome in May will deserve to be the winner. pursue profit, do not always coincide.
To that end, it’s worth remembering that Ed Miliband’s greatest talent as a schoolboy
was solving the Rubik’s cube. He certainly needs it now.
12 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 13
The election that could
have been?
Stephen Bush,
The Daily Telegraph
@stephenkb
Pause for a moment and think how we’d be talking about the election if, say, the Stephen Bush is an
Conservatives had opted to support the Alternative Vote four years ago. Transfers
from UKIP supporters, coupled with boundary reform, would probably be enough
assistant comment
to give that party a narrow majority in the House of Commons. Or go further, and editor at the Telegraph.
ask what would happen if we adopted a more proportional system for elections in He will soon be joining
Westminster, like the D’Hondt hybrid at Holyrood or the mixed-member system used
by the Welsh Assembly.
the New Statesman to
edit its online politics
We wouldn’t then be talking of an election that was ‘too close to call’, but one which coverage
was a dead cert to return an administration that tilted heavily to the right. A two-
party coalition between the Conservatives and UKIP is comfortably larger than any
two-party combination that could plausibly be constructed by Ed Miliband.
‘it’s worth stopping and considering 2015 not as a final
destination but a step down the road’
The good news for Labour, of course, is that elections at Westminster aren’t decided
by the Alternative Vote or a proportional system, which means the opposition still
have realistic hopes of forming a government in May. But it’s worth stopping and
considering 2015 not as a final destination but a step down the road: which is the
party or grouping that should be most cheered by the likely result?
A party of the pro-European liberal centre looks all but certain to be smashed. The
Liberal Democrats will likely be wiped out in large parts of the country and could
yet lose their leader. They will be replaced as the third party by UKIP, a party that
has flirted with repatriation, and contains more than its fair share of nasty elements.
Labour will fall someway short of even the relatively disappointing vote share it
achieved in 2005 and will be supplanted in Scotland by the SNP. And that’s before you
add in the consequences to left-wing unity from a rising Green Party.
Against all that, the schism between the two parties of the Right suddenly doesn’t look
quite so bad. Throughout most of Europe, centre-right parties have been able to build
viable alliances with parties just a little to their right, and there is no reason why the
Conservatives won’t be able to do the same in 2020 or 2025.
14 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 15
The air war versus the What can we expect
ground war from UKIP?
Rafael Behr, Dr Matthew Goodwin,
The Guardian Author, Revolt on the Right
@rafaelbehr @GoodwinMJ
We call it a general election but 8 May 2015 will really be a This May, Labour will be more than ever dependent on its 2014 was the most successful year in the 21 year history of unpopular Ed Miliband in power, UKIP may well find itself
number of highly specific, dissimilar elections. In Scotland, pavement-pounding platoons. The party is relatively short of UKIP. But what can we expect from the party at the General being pushed forward from voters based far and wide from its
for example, Labour fights for survival against a Nationalist cash, unloved by most of the press and led by a man who fails Eection in May? East Coast heartlands.
insurgency, with the Tories relegated to the margins. In south- to radiate charisma through broadcast media. There is a feeling
western England, a peculiar intra-coalition battle unfolds in the Labour ranks that Ed Miliband has already lost the ‘air There is no question that a first past the post battle will be
between Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. UKIP war’ and that the only hope of victory (defined these days as far more challenging for a party that has only ever prospered
are siphoning support from Labour and Tory candidates in having the most seats in a hung parliament) is the ‘ground war’. under a form of proportional representation. Yet UKIP has
different places and different ways that make results wildly learned how to navigate the more challenging system, by
unpredictable. The Conservatives insist their own ground operation has winning two parliamentary by-elections in the autumn. This
sharpened up thanks to ‘Team2015’ – a volunteer regiment has brought the party important campaigning experience
To some extent, this has always been the way but the mustered by party chairman Grant Shapps. Labour say this even if it continues to lack the same amount of manpower and
fragmentation is more extreme this time. Opinion polls is a virtual army, parachuting into battleground seats to post money as the established parties. But make no mistake; Nigel
show very little traffic between Labour and Tory camps, with photos on Twitter. Farage and his party will struggle to win more than half a
fluctuations in their ratings driven by defections to the fringe. dozen constituencies in May 2015. The question is which ones.
The big two are stress testing their core voters rather than The Tory message will mostly be delivered by billboards and
reaching new supporters. direct mail (that no other party can afford on the same scale). Inexperienced idealists in the party talk about winning
The Conservative riposte is that Labour are rattled, spinning 30 seats, expressing an unbridled optimism that is only found
the superiority of their foot soldiers because they have no other in smaller parties. But more experienced hands in the party
‘The big two are stress testing their straws left to clutch. now appear focused on gaining a much smaller number of
seats and in a targeted way. The top targets are not difficult
core voters rather than reaching new Privately, Labour strategists concede that parts of their to identify. UKIP’s existing seats of Clacton and Rochester
supporters.’ machine have rusted over. The party’s woes in Scotland are and Strood will be top of their list, with the party wanting to
due in part to neglect of grassroots organisation. The SNP have
capitalised in areas where Labour complacently assumed an
show that it can hold territory. Then there is Thanet South, Dr Matthew Goodwin is an Associate
where Nigel Farage needs to win in order to avoid a possible
In such a climate, a lot can hinge on what the parties call irreversible monopoly on local power. But in England, in key leadership challenge. Other top targets will likely include Professor in the School of Politics and
GOTV – Get Out The Vote. The romantic view of doorstep marginal seats, Labour has channelled its limited resources Boston and Skegness in UKIP’s Lincolnshire heartland, the International Relations at the University
campaigning involves debate and persuasion. In reality most into a street-fighting strategy with a proven capacity to thwart Labour-held seat of Great Grimsby and the Conservative-held of Nottingham. His latest book, Revolt on
of it is identifying people who will definitely support you and Conservative ambitions. It stopped David Cameron getting seats of Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and Thurrock. UKIP has
making damn sure they get to the polling station on time. a majority in 2010. And it is a reason why, even with air a realistic chance of winning these seats.
the Right: Explaining Public Support for
supremacy, he will find it almost impossible to secure one on the Radical Right in Britain, was named
Labour are historically good at this. 2010 was Labour’s heaviest his second attempt. But we might also see something interesting taking place Political Book of the Year 2015
defeat since the Second World War but the damage was limited under the surface, with UKIP finding itself second to Labour in
in terms of seats because the GOTV machinery cranked into dozens of constituencies in northern England. While Farage’s
gear in key marginal constituencies. By contrast, the Tories Rafael Behr is a political columnist for likely gains in Conservative-held marginal seats will most
suffered from a long-term decline in membership outside their The Guardian. He was named Political likely dominate much of the coverage on his party, in the north
heartlands (and even there, old age and suspicion of David
Commentator of the Year in the 2014 UKIP may find itself indirectly benefiting from a toxic Tory ‘the party now appear focused on gaining
Cameron’s ‘modernising’ liberalism have depleted activist
Editorial Intelligence comment awards.
brand and a collapse of support for the Liberal Democrats in a much smaller number of seats and in a
numbers). Labour’s urban heartlands. With important elections to the
Welsh Assembly arriving in 2016, and the prospect of a deeply targeted way.’
16 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 17
Organised chaos?
Post-election negotiations
In 2010, politicians entered into coalition negotiations relatively
unprepared – all of the figures involved were also coalition
negotiation novices.
Each election since 1979 had delivered majorities, and in four of
these cases the majority had been over 100. Despite the polls in Don’t only concentrate on headline grabbing measures. In
2010 regularly pointing towards a hung parliament, politicians, the event of a hung parliament with either a much looser
journalists and even pollsters refused to believe the evidence, coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ deal, Government
and remained convinced that somebody would win a majority. is likely to legislate less as it seeks to avoid challenging
parliamentary votes. Engage with regulation and
The opposite is the case in 2015. It’s hard to find a politician administrative reforms which can be used to advance
who doesn’t at least half expect a hung parliament and departmental priorities.
all parties are actively preparing for the negotiations and
compromises that will follow. Ultimately, raw politics and parliamentary arithmetic will
decide how negotiations unfold. For example, the Liberal
The likely decline in the Liberal Democrat seat tally, combined Democrats have already said that they would talk first to the
with a likely SNP surge, means that it will be much more major party that gained the most votes, not the most seats.
difficult to put together a straightforward and stable coalition
than it was in 2010. We’re certainly not going to see a repeat Negotiations are also likely to be much more complex than in
of the general optimism that greeted the ‘Rose Garden’ love-in 2015 for the following reasons:
after the last election. • The internal mechanisms of all parties are likely to make
If there is a coalition, it is a real possibility that it will involve
• The parties are preparing much more thoroughly for the the process of forming a government more problematic and
lengthy. In 2010, only the Liberal Democrats had a vote
Implications of the Fixed
possibility of a hung parliament. They will be ready for
more than two parties with a looser coalition than has been negotiations with a series of ‘red lines’, such as an EU of MPs and their federal executive over the formation of a Term Parliament Act
the case over the past five years. In the event of more than referendum for the Conservatives. Nick Clegg has already coalition. However, Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922
two parties forming a government, this would lead to a very set out his Party’s ‘red line’, including a pledge to guarantee Committee, has made clear that Conservative MPs would The Fixed Term Parliament Act represents one of the
different make-up at the top of government, with no repeat schools spending, which means spending £3bn more than expect to be consulted in the event of any new agreement. biggest changes to the British constitution of recent times,
of ‘the Quad’; the term devised for the group of key decision the Conservatives who have only pledged to freeze current It’s also likely that Labour’s NEC committee and PLP would but it received little attention and scrutiny when it was
makers that was made up of the prime minister, the chancellor, spending. Nigel Farage has also outlined the price of UKIP at least expect consultation, if not a binding vote. passed. It means that whereas beforehand the Prime
the deputy prime minister and the chief secretary to the supporting any party in Government; an immediate in-out minister decided the date of the election, it’s now set in
treasury. referendum on Europe. The real question though is how • While there will be pressure from the media, and no doubt advance – to be held once every five years.
many seats these parties will accumulate, thus determining the public, to reach a deal, there will not be the same
For many commentators, a minority government, driven by the strength of their hand when it comes to any coalition pressure from the markets for a quick outcome, given that This makes the scenario of a minority government
‘confidence and supply’ (where smaller parties agree to support negotiations. the UK’s economy is stronger than it was in 2010, when seeking a bigger mandate in a second 2015 election more
a government in a vote of confidence and over its budget, some argued that failure to quickly form a government could difficult to foresee. If a government were to lose a vote
but consider other votes on an issue by issue basis) is a more • More parties may be involved, leading to a more complex have led to the markets panicking. of confidence, there would be 14 days for an alternative
likely option. This enables smaller parties to maximise their dynamic and the strong possibility that negotiations could government to be formed before an early election is called.
influence without having to accept all of the compromises of take a lengthy period of time. A greater level of suspicion and Alternatively, a ‘super majority’ of 67% of the House of
coalition that has seen the Lib Dems erode so much of their hesitation is also likely to exist between the various parties Commons would have to vote for an early election. As
support. Equally, strained personal relations between Ed after the experience of coalition over the past five years. academic Phil Cowley recently commented, there is little
Miliband and leading Liberal Democrats are unlikely to make reason to suggest that either of these scenarios would be
coalition forming easy. The better personal chemistry between likely. Equally, a government could overturn the Act, but
leading Liberals and Conservatives was a key factor in 2010. it would need a parliamentary majority to do this.
So because of the Act, party leaders are likely to spend
longer than they would previously have done trying to
piece together a potential coalition of parties, knowing
that an early election would be a difficult possibility.18 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 19
Scenarios for a
Conservative-led government
Isabel Hardman,
Assistant Editor, The Spectator
@IsabelHardman
This is one of the most terrifying elections for a politician. The plenty of rebelling against the government. This means that
only thing more terrifying than the narrow battle on 7 May is a Con-Lib coalition would have a much smaller majority in
what might happen afterwards. The polls all suggest a hung practice than in theory.
parliament, and there’s a chance that not even a two-party
coalition will cut the mustard and create a majority. For the In every scenario other than losing (as opposed to being the
Conservatives, this means potentially enlisting the support of largest party or indeed winning a majority), David Cameron
minor parties, though they have already ruled out any sort of is reasonably safe, though he will see backbench muttering
deal with UKIP. increasing as he heads towards an EU referendum. The
hardcore Eurosceptics have not pledged their loyalty to him
Even a coalition with the Lib Dems will be difficult, for a beyond 7 May, and after that date they will expect serious
number of reasons. The first is that on many areas the two details of a robust renegotiation plan for Britain’s relationship
parties have run out of road, or least have spent the past few with Europe. The Prime minister cannot afford to chillax after
months pretending that they’ve run out of road. On many the election, no matter how hard he has fought.
aspects of counter-terrorism, education, welfare and even on
overall spending, the parties have major disagreements. They
have reached a policy glass ceiling. The Lib Dems will not
Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The
accept George Osborne’s spending plans that he announced in Spectator and edits the Coffee House blog.
the Autumn Statement, and if that confrontation does come She also presents BBC Radio 4’s Week in
to pass, it will leave Tory backbenchers feeling even more Westminster
embittered.
The Tories are also coming to terms with the way the Lib Dem
backbenchers function now, which is largely as untameable
rebels. Many of the party’s PPSs have resigned to rebel against
the Government, and the chances are that those who do
‘a Con-Lib coalition would have a much
survive the May election will want to spend most of their time smaller majority in practice than in
bolstering their tiny majorities in their constituencies. The theory.’
Conservatives assume that this bolstering activity will include20 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 21
Scenarios for a Prospects for the next
Labour-led government Parliament – New leaders please
Added to this political uncertainty, the post-election landscape will
see new political leaders emerge, with new staff, new policy priorities
and potentially a new agenda.
George Eaton,
Political Editor, New Statesman
@georgeeaton
If Labour is to win the election, it will need to defy historical The party’s policy priorities, and its likely red lines in any
precedent: no opposition has ever achieved victory while negotiations, would be the introduction of an £8 minimum
trailing on both economic management and on leadership. But wage, a cap on energy prices, the abolition of the bedroom tax,
the party’s polling advantage on the NHS and living standards, a £2.5bn rise in NHS spending, the repeal of the Health and
the enduring toxicity of the Tory brand and the favourable Social Care Act, the imposition of a 50p tax rate and a large
constituency boundaries all mean that it could yet return to house-building programme.
government after a single term.
Austerity would continue under Labour but in a moderated
The collapse in support for Labour in Scotland has made a form. Unlike the Conservatives, the party has not pledged
majority unachievable. Even if it were to retain half of its 40 to achieve an absolute budget surplus, only to eliminate the
Scottish MPs, it would need to make net gains of 88 in England current deficit by the end of the next parliament. It has also
and Wales: an implausible figure. If Ed Miliband does become allowed itself room to borrow for capital investment and has
prime minister it will be as head of a coalition government or a vowed to increase taxes on the wealthy. The result is that the
Consider potential future leadership candidates and those Nick Clegg is by no means a certainty to hold on to his Sheffield
minority administration. fiscal gap between the two parties is greater than at any recent
close to them when developing your post-election planning and Hallam seat. Even if he does, however, his leadership of the
election. The IFS estimates that the Tories would impose cuts
There is much common ground between Labour and political engagement strategies in the coming months. Liberal Democrats seems fragile. Potential candidates to
of around £33bn after 2015-16, while Labour would impose
the Liberal Democrats. Both parties support a mansion replace him include Tim Farron, representing the party’s left,
cuts of just £7bn. On the Conservative side, any leadership contest looks like
tax, borrowing for infrastructure investment, a 2030 Danny Alexander, himself under threat from the SNP surge,
being dominated by Boris Johnson and Theresa May, but ‘Orange Booker’ Ed Davey and Vince Cable.
decarbonisation target, greater oversight of free schools and Miliband’s long-term ambition is to transform Britain into a
there is an accelerating bandwagon behind Sajid Javid, and
academies, an elected House of Lords, the reduction of the high-skill, high-wage, German-style economy with drastically
Owen Paterson looks ready to take up the mantle of the
voting age to 16 and party funding reform. But the tribal reduced levels of inequality. His great challenge would be
‘representative of the right’. The aftermath of the election could see all parties being
loathing of many in Labour for the Lib Dems could make embarking on this project in the likely absence of a majority
an agreement impossible, even if the numbers add up. Len and in an era of depressed European growth. thrown into a turbulent period of soul searching, with
Labour figures already appear to be ‘on manoeuvres’ for a
McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite, Labour’s largest various leadership candidates offering notably different
post-Miliband Labour Party. Chuka Umunna, Andy Burnham
donor, has publicly warned of a cut in funding and even of solutions to their party’s long-term problems.
and Yvette Cooper remain likely candidates, but Blairite Liz
disaffiliation should Miliband form a coalition with Clegg’s George Eaton is political editor of the Kendall and former army officer Dan Jarvis are increasingly
party.
New Statesman being talked about as realistic leadership contenders. Jarvis,
in particular, seems to be the Labour figure that many senior
The SNP, which could hold more seats than the Lib Dems after
Conservatives most fear.
the election, has said it would support a Labour government
if it abandoned austerity, cancelled the renewal of Trident and
granted Scotland full fiscal autonomy; conditions it would ‘The collapse in support for Labour
almost certainly refuse to meet. For these reasons, many in
Labour would like Miliband to lead a minority administration
in Scotland has made a majority
and, following the example of Harold Wilson, to stage a second unachievable.’
election in search of a majority.22 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election FISHBURN 23
Successful minority government What this all means for the
is about making broad alliances mechanisms of government
Nick Pearce, Akash Paun,
Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) Fellow, Institute for Government
@IPPR_NickP @akashpaun
The UK’s two main political parties are facing the prospect of a what has happened each time Labour has formed a minority Speculation about the election result will keep pollsters A hung parliament might lead this time, not to a coalition, but
close and unpredictable national poll on 7 May, as they struggle government. These ill-starred administrations have never and pundits fully occupied until polling day. But with no to a minority administration. There are those in both major
to address the march of the populists. lasted long. party seeming capable of winning the 40% once seen as a parties that favour this option. Others however fear that
prerequisite for victory, a hung parliament appears almost forming a government with no stable majority is a prelude to
However, we have been here before – the two leading parties A minority Labour administration that lacks a majority in inevitable. And that makes the more important question not instability and indecision.
neck and neck; a phalanx of nationalist parliamentarians; England and can govern only with the support of the SNP will what happens on 7 May, but what happens on the days after
and an insurgent party that claims to be the authentic voice of struggle for legitimacy. So will the Conservatives – with few that. Undoubtedly a minority government would face challenges,
working people. seats outside the Midlands and southern England – should particularly when it comes to getting legislation and budgets
they form a minority government without the participation of Compared to some countries, the UK has few rules guiding through the Commons unscathed. But other countries show
This sounds very much like a synopsis of the British political the Liberal Democrats. the government formation process. Any party can enter into how it can be made to work. New Zealand’s ‘confidence and
scene in 2015; but, in fact, this is the UK of 1910. In the early negotiations with any other, and there could again be parallel supply agreements’ between governing and smaller parties
20th century, as today, Britain’s electoral landscape was Each party faces the challenge of contributing to a new talks involving both the Conservatives and Labour and one or have provided the bedrock for effective government for the past
shifting under politicians’ feet. set of broad and durable political alliances that command more smaller parties. decade.
public support. Some will seize the crisis of the established
Herbert Asquith lost his governing majority in 1910 but led party system as an opportunity for realignment, just as The largest party is not guaranteed to enter government – a Closer to home, Alex Salmond made a virtue of his apparent
perhaps the most successful minority government in modern their predecessors did 100 years ago. Who will be the most combination of smaller parties can consign the ‘winner’ weakness leading a minority government after 2007 by picking
British history. His Liberals, governing with support from a successful power brokers? On their identity, Britain’s political to opposition, as occurred in 1924. The sole test is that a his battles, cutting deals with all the other parties, and focusing
progressive alliance of Irish nationalists and the infant Labour future will turn. government can secure the support (or at least the toleration) of on improving policy outcomes rather than passing legislation.
party, worked together to pass historic constitutional reforms. a majority of MPs (the parliamentary confidence test). The SNP survived a full term with no majority before winning
a landslide.
The lesson from this episode is that, during these moments Neither is it true that an existing Prime minister has ‘first go’
of political uncertainty when no party can command a clear Nick is a Director at the Institute for Public at forming a government. The incumbent can in theory hold on The outcome of this May’s government formation process
majority, the advantage lies with those that marshal broad Policy Research (IPPR). IPPR is the UK’s till parliament returns and force the opposition to defeat him. will ultimately come down to two factors: arithmetic and
alliances. leading progressive think tank But by convention a PM is expected to resign, as did Gordon leadership. Who has the numbers to form a workable
Brown, once it becomes clear that he has lost the confidence of government? And who will seize the moment, as Cameron did
This is what Asquith achieved between 1910 and 1915, the House and another person is better placed to govern. in 2010, with his bold offer to the Liberal Democrats? Until
the period when he brought Irish nationalist and Labour May, let the speculation continue.
politicians and voters into alliance with his government. It is While negotiations continue, the incumbent team remains in
what Alex Salmond did, too, when his Scottish nationalists ‘Minority governments fail when they office in a ‘caretaker’ capacity. This means ministers should
governed in Holyrood for four years from 2007. His Akash Paun is a Fellow of the Institute
focus solely on parliamentary survival’ avoid or defer any significant decisions (and consult with the
administration could not have sustained itself without support opposition if a decision must be taken – for instance in the for Government
from the Greens and the Scottish Conservatives. event of a diplomatic or financial crisis).
Minority governments fail when they focus solely on The civil service can be called upon to support negotiations.
parliamentary survival, staggering from vote to vote and But based on the 2010 experience, the instinct of the parties
surrendering the initiative to the opposing party. This is may be to keep officials at arm’s length from what is an
‘a minority government would face
intensely political process – opening the door to the mandarins challenges, particularly when it comes to
only when factual input (or tea and sandwiches) is required. getting legislation and budgets through’24 Planning for Uncertainty: Fishburn’s guide to the 2015 General Election Barring a last minute shift in the fortunes of the political parties, we are heading for a second hung parliament with the inevitable compromises of coalition government or a ‘confidence and supply’ deal. Business needs to be ready for this and planning for uncertainty. For more insight into these issues, or about Fishburn and how we can help you, please contact us. E: rory.scanlan@thisisfishburn.com T: 020 7092 2222
Fishburn 77 KINGSWAY LONDON WC2B 6SR +44 (0)20 7092 2222 THISISFISHBURN.COM
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