Passenger Core Market Analysis - Report prepared by - Paine Field Airport
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Passenger Core Market Analysis Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field Ev erett, Washington Report prepared by 28829 Lockheed Drive, Suite 2A Eugene, Oregon 97402 Phone: 541/689-9997 Email: eugene@meadhunt.com www.meadhunt.com September 14, 2004
Table of contents
Table of contents
Page
Section 1. Introduction............................................................................1
Objectives.............................................................................................1
Methodology..........................................................................................1
Section 2. Executiv e summary................................................................3
Section 3. Airport catchment area, activ ity, and use...............................5
Airport catchment area...........................................................................5
Competing airport departures .................................................................6
Competing airport available seats...........................................................7
Passenger trends...................................................................................8
Section 4. Destinations...........................................................................9
Itinerary type .........................................................................................9
Catchment area top 25 destinations......................................................10
Nonstop service to top destinations.......................................................11
Travel time comparison........................................................................12
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) geographic regions......................13
Regional distribution of catchment area travelers...................................14
Distribution of international travel..........................................................15
Section 5. Airlines.................................................................................16
Airlines used........................................................................................16
Section 6. Airfares ................................................................................17
U.S. DOT reported airfares...................................................................17
Ten-year average fare trend.................................................................18
Section 7. True market estimate ...........................................................19
Methodology – market share ................................................................19
Methodology – passengers...................................................................20
True market.........................................................................................20
Retention rate sensitivity......................................................................21
Section 8. Situation analysis.................................................................22Table of contents
Appendices
Page
Appendix A. Glossary..............................................................................24
Appendix B. True market estimate – top 50 markets..................................26
Tables
Table 3.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly departures...............6
Table 3.2 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly available seats.........7
Table 4.1 Catchment area destination patterns...........................................9
Table 4.2 Catchment area top 25 destinations..........................................10
Table 4.3 Nonstop service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.............11
Table 4.4 Time comparison (minutes to the aircraft gate)...........................12
Table 4.5 Regional distribution of travel....................................................14
Table 4.6 Regional distribution of international passengers........................15
Table 5.1 Airlines used............................................................................16
Table 6.1 U.S. DOT average fares...........................................................17
Table 7.1 True market estimates – top 10 markets....................................20
Table 7.2 Retention rate sensitivity...........................................................21
Exhibits
Exhibit 3.1 Catchment area by zip code......................................................5
Exhibit 3.2 Origin and destination passenger trend......................................8
Exhibit 4.1 Itinerary type............................................................................9
Exhibit 4.2 FAA geographic regions.........................................................13
Exhibit 4.3 Regional distribution of travel ..................................................14
Exhibit 4.4 Regional distribution of international travel...............................15
Exhibit 6.1 Ten-year average fare trend....................................................18
Exhibit 6.2 Ten-year average fare trend (1994 dollars) ..............................18
Exhibit 7.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area................19Section 1
Introduction
Section 1. Introduction
Snohomish County Government is interested in understanding the market for commercial air service at Paine
Field. A key element of this effort is the generation and development of credible information that can be used
to evaluate current air service to the area and identify opportunities for improvement. The Passenger Core
Market Analysis provides objective information on air travel in the region that cannot be accessed from other
sources. This is especially important for Snohomish County since the Airport has no consistent commercial air
service history.
As the domestic airline industry continues to undergo considerable change, it is prudent for county leaders to
understand the local air travel market. Airlines make service decisions based on two primary factors: return on
investment and company strategy. In large markets like the Seattle area, airport and air space
capacity/congestion are also key considerations. Passenger Core Market Analysis information provides
objective background data for evaluating and analyzing service gaps and market viability. Airline staff
members often review Passenger Core Market Analysis data as one element of the overall assessment of
market potential.
Objectives
The primary objective of the Passenger Core Market Analysis is to develop information on the travel patterns of
local airline passengers that reside in the geographic area that could potentially be served by Snohomish
County Airport/Paine Field. Included in the information to be developed are:
• Estimated passenger traffic associated with the target catchment area
• Passenger traffic and related destinations
• Airlines used by local air travelers
• Average airfares by originating/destination airport
• An estimate of the size of the true market for airline passengers in the region
A total of 136,634 airline bookings were tabulated and included in the Passenger Core Market Analysis. Airline
booking information was collected for a one-year period from March 1, 2003 to February 29, 2004. The reader
should keep in mind that the data used is a sample of airline bookings NOT all bookings within the one-year
period. Over 98.2 percent of sample bookings originated from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The
remaining sample booking information from other competing airports in the region was excluded from the
Passenger Core Market Analysis due to the limited use of these airports by air travelers from the
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area.
Methodology
This analysis combines Marketing Information Data Tape (MIDT) booking information from the Global
Distribution Systems (GDS), which is used by travel agencies, and U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)
airline data to provide a comprehensive overview of the air service market in this region. The information
collected includes originating airports, destinations, and airlines used. The data is analyzed to accomplish the
objectives of the Passenger Core Market Analysis.
Page 1Section 1
Introduction
For the purposes of this study, MIDT includes bookings made by travel agencies in the defined
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. It does not capture passenger bookings issued
directly by airline websites (i.e., www.alaskaair.com, www.southwest.com, etc.), agency Internet sites
(i.e., www.travelocity.com, www.expedia.com, www.priceline.com, etc.), or directly through airline
reservation offices.
Data from agency Internet sites was not used in this study since MIDT is sorted by zip code. Internet sites
record all bookings as originating from the zip code in which the server resides. For example, all
bookings for www.travelocity.com are recorded with a Southlake, TX zip code regardless of the air
traveler’s location. Given this, retention/diversion information cannot be derived from Internet site
bookings. Moreover, the data used in this analysis is a sample of travel agency airline bookings and does
not include all bookings within the survey period.
The near elimination of commissions paid by airlines to travel agencies has reduced the number of tickets
written by travel agencies. Although this development has reduced the number of tickets written by travel
agencies, the sample size is sufficiently large that it represents a statistically valid portrayal of the local
travel market. The data sample of local air traveler’s bookings provides the basis for identifying and
prioritizing possible strategies for new routes.
By using calendar year 2000 population statistics and information provided to the U.S. DOT by the
airlines for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the true market was estimated for the Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field catchment area. The true market is the total number of air travelers in the geographic
area served by Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. To determine passengers by destination, the true
market estimate was combined with MIDT information for the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field
catchment area. The true market estimate includes the size of the total market as well as estimates for
specific destinations.
Page 2Section 2
Executive summary
Section 2. Executive summ ary
Surv ey sample Destinations
A total of 136,634 airline bookings were In the survey sample, 51.7 percent of the air
tabulated and included in the Passenger Core travelers were destined for one of the top 25
Market Analysis. Airline booking information markets. The top 10 destinations accounted for
was collected for a one-year period from March 30.5 percent of the total sample. Las Vegas
1, 2003 to February 29, 2004. The reader was the number one destination for the survey
should keep in mind that the data used is a sample with San Diego as the second
sample of airline bookings NOT all bookings destination. London Heathrow was the top
within the period. international destination.
Airport catchment area Nonstop serv ice
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field’s Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered
catchment area is assumed to include an nonstop service to 88 destinations.
estimated population of 1,118,315 and 61 zip Furthermore, Seattle-Tacoma International
codes in the state of Washington. At present, Airport offered nonstop service to 24 of
the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field
catchment area is considered part of the Seattle- catchment area’s top 25 destinations.
Tacoma International Airport catchment area.
Regional distribution of trav el
Departures and available seats Regionally, most domestic travelers were
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field does not destined for the West followed by destinations in
currently have commercial air service. Seattle- the East and Southeast regions. In the survey
Tacoma International Airport is used by the sample, 36.7 percent of the total air travelers
majority of Snohomish County Airport/Paine were destined for cities in the West region
Field catchment area air travelers. Seattle- followed by 9.6 percent to the East region and
Tacoma International Airport was served by 9.3 percent to the Southeast. A relatively high
many carriers with 3,066 departures per week, percentage, 15.6 percent, traveled to
59.6 percent of which were provided by Alaska international destinations. Of those air travelers
Airlines/Horizon Air. Seattle-Tacoma with an international itinerary, 40.9 percent were
International Airport offered 344,533 available destined for Europe.
seats per week, 85.8 percent of which were
provided on jet aircraft. Airlines used
Overall, Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air
Passenger trends captured 36.6 percent of the travel represented
From calendar year 1994 to calendar year 2003, in the survey. United Airlines was the second
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s domestic most frequently used airline in the survey
origin and destination passengers increased by sample, capturing 16.7 percent of air travelers.
a compounded annual growth rate of 2.2 Northwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and
percent. American Airlines followed behind with market
shares ranging from 8.4 percent to 5.8 percent.
Page 3Section 2
Executive summary
Airfares Air service opportunities
Based on U.S. DOT airline data, the one-way Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field's true
average domestic ticket price for Seattle- market is estimated at 2,891,782 annual
Tacoma International Airport passengers was enplanements (see Section 7). Given the
$152.13 for calendar year 2003. Not proximity to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
surprisingly, the one-way average ticket price and the air service available, it is not reasonable
out of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to to expect that all of these passengers would use
the top destination, Las Vegas, of $97.70 was the local airport. However, there is the potential
significantly less than the overall average for Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field to
domestic one-way ticket price. function as a secondary airport. The most likely
air service providers would be United Airlines to
Average fare trend San Francisco and/or Denver, Delta Air Lines to
Based on U.S. DOT airline data, Seattle- Salt Lake City, or Horizon Air/Alaska Airlines to
Tacoma International Airport’s one-way average Los Angeles and/or Las Vegas. America West
domestic fares have fluctuated over the 10-year Airlines to Phoenix would be another possibility.
period from calendar year 1994 to calendar year Carriers to date have not chosen to provide
2003. Overall, Seattle-Tacoma International service to an additional airport in the Seattle
Airport’s average fare declined at a compounded area.
annual rate of 0.1 percent.
Page 4Section 3
Airport catchment area, activity, and use
Section 3. Airport catchment area, activity, and use
Airport catchment area
The airport catchment area is the geographic area from which an airport can reasonably expect to draw
commercial air service passengers. However, airport use by the airport catchment area population is affected
by a variety of factors, including the proximity to competing airport(s), airfares, destinations offered, and flight
frequency.
Exhibit 3.1 identifies the zip codes included in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. The
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area is comprised of 61 zip codes with a combined
population of 1,118,315. It is within this catchment area that potential users of Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field air service are most likely to reside. The proximity of the catchment area to Seattle-Tacoma
International Airport will make passenger retention at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field challenging. For
this report, airline booking information from travel agencies within the catchment area was pulled through the
GDS as one factor to determine the commercial air service potential of Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field.
Exhibit 3.1 Catchment area by zip code
Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004
Page 5Section 3
Airport catchment area, activity, and use
Competing airport departures
The quality of air service offered by an airport is a factor in an air traveler’s decision process. In general,
passengers prefer larger aircraft over smaller aircraft and jet aircraft over turboprop aircraft. Tables 3.1
and 3.2 show weekly departures and available seats at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport as a
measure of air service quality for the sample week of February 9, 2004.
Table 3.1 provides a summary of weekly departures by aircraft at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.
Jet versus turboprop service is separated to review the quality of the service being provided. Alaska
Airlines combined with Horizon Air provided 59.6 percent of total departures. United Airlines provided the
second highest share of departures with 11.0 percent. Southwest Airlines rounded out the top three with
7.9 percent of the sample week departures. Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air served the market with a
variety of narrow body jet aircraft, the De Havilland Dash-8 turboprop aircraft, and Canadair Regional
Jets. United Airlines used wide body and narrow body jets for long haul destinations and the Embraer
120 Brasilia for feeder routes. Southwest Airlines’ entire fleet consists of narrow body Boeing 737s.
Overall, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered 3,066 nonstop flights during the sample week. Jet
departures totaled 65.9 percent of total departures.
Table 3.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly departures
Aircraft type Weekly departures Jet Turbo-
AS UA WN AA DL NW Other Total prop
Airbus 31 8/319 0 86 0 0 0 13 110 209 209 0
Airbus 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 0
Boeing 737 574 55 241 8 35 0 104 1,017 1,017 0
Boeing 747 0 0 0 0 0 7 21 28 28 0
Boeing 757 0 67 0 7 25 50 19 168 168 0
Boeing 767 0 4 0 0 17 0 13 34 34 0
Boeing 777 0 14 0 0 0 0 7 21 21 0
Canadair Regional Jet 70 0 0 0 7 0 7 84 84 0
de Havilland Dash-8 Q200 582 0 0 0 0 0 0 582 0 582
de Havilland Dash-8 Q300 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 35 0 35
de Havilland Dash-8 Q400 299 0 0 0 0 0 0 299 0 299
Embraer 120 Brasilia 0 110 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 110
Fairchil d Metro 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 18 0 18
McDonnell-Douglas DC10 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 21 21 0
McDonnell-Douglas MD-80/83 302 0 0 103 0 0 0 405 405 0
McDonnell-Douglas MD-90 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 28 28 0
Total 1,827 336 241 118 112 91 341 3,066 2,022 1,044
% of total 5 9.6 11.0 7.9 3.8 3.7 3.0 11.1 100.0 65.9 34.1
Source: Official Airline Guide – Week of Februar y 9, 2004
Note: AS-Alas ka Airlines, UA-United Airlines, WN-Southwest Airlines, AA-American Airlines, D L-Delta Air Lines,
NW-Northwest Airlines
Page 6Section 3
Airport catchment area, activity, and use
Competing airport available seats
Table 3.2 provides a comparison of available seats by aircraft type at Seattle-Tacoma International
Airport during the sample week. Alaska Airlines, combined with Horizon Air, provided the highest share
of available seats with 49.1 percent of the total. Because Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air operates a mixed
fleet of jet and turboprop aircraft, its percentage share of seats is less than its percentage share of
departures. United Airlines, with the second highest share of departures, provided 11.1 percent of the
available seats in the Seattle market. Because jet aircraft typically offer more seating capacity than
turboprops, the percentage of available seats on jets (85.8 percent) is higher than the percentage of
departures on jets (65.9 percent). Only 14.2 percent of the available seats in the Seattle market were
provided on turboprop aircraft.
Table 3.2 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly available seats
Aircraft type Weekly availab le seats Jet Tu rbo-
AS UA WN NW DL AA Other Total prop
Airbus 318/319 0 11,256 0 1,756 0 0 15,084 28,096 28,096 0
Airbus 340 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,827 1,827 1,827 0
Boeing 737 78,288 6,794 32,747 0 5,390 1,136 15,074 139,429 139,429 0
Boeing 747 0 0 0 2,800 0 0 6,871 9,671 9,671 0
Boeing 757 0 12,194 0 10,381 4,625 1,442 3,268 31,910 31,910 0
Boeing 767 0 824 0 0 3,315 0 2,990 7,129 7,129 0
Boeing 777 0 3,892 0 0 0 0 2,148 6,040 6,040 0
Canadair Regional J et 4,900 0 0 0 350 0 560 5,810 5,810 0
de Havilland Dash-8 Q200 21,534 0 0 0 0 0 0 21,534 0 21,534
de Havilland Dash-8 Q300 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,750 1,750 0 1,750
de Havilland Dash-8 Q400 22,126 0 0 0 0 0 0 22,126 0 22,126
Embraer 120 Brasilia 0 3,300 0 0 0 0 0 3,300 0 3,300
Fairchild Metro 0 0 0 0 0 0 342 342 0 342
McDonnell-Douglas DC10 0 0 0 5,670 0 0 0 5,670 5,670 0
McDonnell-Douglas MD-80/83 42,280 0 0 0 0 13,419 0 55,699 55,699 0
McDonnell-Douglas MD-90 0 0 0 0 4,200 0 0 4,200 4,200 0
Total 169,128 38,260 32,747 20,607 17,880 15,997 49,914 344,533 295,481 49,052
% of to tal 49.1 11.1 9.5 6.0 5.2 4.6 14.5 100.0 85.8 14.2
Source: Official Airline Guide – Week of Februar y 9, 2004
Note: AS-Alas ka Airlines, UA-United Airlines, WN-Southwest Airlines, N W-Northwest Airlines, DL-Delta Air Li nes, AA-American
Airlines
Page 7Section 3
Airport catchment area, activity, and use
Passenger trends
Airport passenger traffic is a function of population, economic activity, level of air service, distance to a
competing airport, and cost of air service. Air travelers in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field
catchment area use Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to access air service. Exhibit 3.2 shows the
domestic origin and destination passenger trend at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport compared to the
population growth. Origin and destination passengers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have
increased significantly over the past 10 years, with a compounded annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. The
population in the region has grown as well, but at a slower compounded annual rate of 1.7 percent. As
population in the Seattle region continues to grow, access limitations, congestion, and facility limitations
may make Seattle-Tacoma International Airport a less desirable origination airport for air travelers.
Exhibit 3.2 Origin and destination passenger trend
20,000,000 3,400,000
3,000,000
18,000,000
O&D passengers - (SEA)
2,600,000
16,000,000
Population
2,200,000
14,000,000
1,800,000
O&D passenger s Seattle MSA
12,000,000
1,400,000
10,000,000 1,000,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Calend ar Year
Source: Data Base Products, Inc., Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. - CEDDS 2004
Page 8Section 4
Destinations
Section 4. Destinations
This section of the Passenger Core Market Analysis investigates destinations associated with air travel
from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Additionally, the air travel destinations
are grouped into geographic regions to further understand the flow of air travel from the airport catchment
area. Over 98.2 percent of sample bookings originated travel from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.
The remaining sample airline booking information associated with other competing airports in the region
was excluded from the Passenger Core Market Analysis due to the minor number of air travelers using
these airports.
Itinerary type
Table 4.1 and Exhibit 4.1 show the breakdown of survey travelers by domestic and international
itineraries. Of the survey sample air travelers, 84.4 percent (115,348) were traveling to a domestic
destination while 15.6 percent (21,286) traveled to an international destination.
Table 4.1 Catchment area destination patterns
Number of Percent
Rank passengers of total
Domestic itineraries only 115,348 84.4
International i tineraries only 21,286 15.6
Total 136,634 100.0
Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Exhibit 4.1 Itinerary type
International
15.6%
Domestic
84.4%
Page 9Section 4
Destinations
Catchment area top 25 destinations
Table 4.2 shows the top 25 survey destinations from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field
catchment area. 51.7 percent of air travelers were destined for the top 25 destinations and 69.3 percent
of the total traffic was included in the top 50 destinations. Las Vegas was the number one destination
with 5.3 percent of the survey market followed by San Diego and Los Angeles (LAX) with 3.9 and 3.4
percent, respectively. London Heathrow was the top international destination and ranked 21st overall with
approximately 1.1 percent of survey bookings. The top 10 destinations represented approximately 30.5
percent of the total market.
Table 4.2 Catchment area top 25 destinations
Rank Destination Passengers Percent of
sample
1 Las Vegas, NV 7,251 5.3
2 San Diego, CA 5,387 3.9
3 Los Angeles, CA 4,659 3.4
4 Orange County, CA 4,624 3.4
5 Phoenix, AZ 4,011 2.9
6 Spokane, WA 3,543 2.6
7 San Francisco, CA 3,187 2.3
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 3,068 2.2
9 Kahului, HI 3,019 2.2
10 Honolulu, HI 2,866 2.1
11 New York Newark, NJ 2,861 2.1
12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 2,742 2.0
13 Orlando, FL 2,631 1.9
14 Denve r, CO 2,396 1.8
15 San Jose, CA 2,260 1.7
16 Reno, NV 1,934 1.4
17 Oakland, CA 1,813 1.3
18 New York JFK, NY 1,719 1.3
19 Minneapolis, MN 1,658 1.2
20 Washington Dulles, DC 1,623 1.2
21 London, England (Heathrow) 1,540 1.1
22 Baltimore, MD 1,471 1.1
23 Anchorage, AK 1,467 1.1
24 Atlanta, GA 1,451 1.1
25 Boston, MA 1,404 1.0
Total top 25 70,585 51.7
Total top 50 94,620 69.3
Total survey 136,634 100.0
Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Page 10Section 4
Destinations
Nonstop serv ice to top destinations
Air travelers consider many factors when choosing an origination airport, one of which is service
availability. Table 4.3 provides perspective on the level of air service offered at Seattle-Tacoma
International Airport for the top 25 destinations identified in this survey.
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport had nonstop service to 24 of the catchment area’s top 25
destinations. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered 98 nonstop flights per week to the number one
destination, Las Vegas, and 47 nonstop flights per week to the second most popular destination, San
Diego.
Table 4.3 Nonstop service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
Rank Destination Nonstop
departures
1 Las Vegas, NV 98
2 San Diego, CA 47
3 Los Angeles, CA 120
4 Orange County, CA 58
5 Phoenix, AZ 105
6 Spokane, WA 171
7 San Francisco, CA 105
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 81
9 Kahului, HI 13
10 Honolulu, HI 14
11 New York Newark, NJ 45
12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 82
13 Orlando, FL 14
14 Denve r, CO 98
15 San Jose, CA 62
16 Reno, NV 43
17 Oakland, CA 92
18 New York JFK, NY 21
19 Minneapolis, MN 37
20 Washington Dulles, DC 35
21 London, England (Heathrow) 7
22 Baltimore, MD 0
23 Anchorage, AK 110
24 Atlanta, GA 35
25 Boston, MA 13
Total top 25 frequencies 1,506
Number of top 25 served 24 of 25
Total destinations served 88
Source: Official Airline Guide - Week of Februar y 9, 2004
MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Page 11Section 4
Destinations
Time comparison
Table 4.4 compares the estimated time to travel and pass through ticketing and airport security to the
aircraft gate at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport versus Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field for the
communities in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area.
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field could offer catchment area travelers a significant pre-flight travel
time savings over Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The drive time to Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field is less than the drive time to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport from each of the
catchment area communities. Additionally, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recommends arriving at
the airport an estimated two hours prior to scheduled departure for check-in and security. However, there
are some Horizon Air and Alaska Airlines’ flights where expedited processing have reduced this check-in
time significantly. It is estimated that recommended check-in and security at Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field would be between 60 and 90 minutes. An air traveler could potentially save up to 60
minutes for check-in and security by using Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. The following table
presents a best case scenario, congestion and parking time is not accounted for in the drive times. For
purposes of this table, it is assumed that time spent for parking will be the same at both airports.
Table 4.4 Time comparison (minutes to the aircraft gate)
Community Travel time Time
Seattle-Tacoma Paine Field savings
Anacortes 226 165 61
Arlington 218 157 61
Bothell 164 116 48
Brier 156 107 49
Coupeville 227 155 72
Duvall 200 166 34
Edmonds 166 109 57
Everett 170 109 61
Freeland 206 134 72
Kenmore 156 114 42
Kirkland 154 120 34
La Conner 220 159 61
Langley 205 134 71
Lake Forest Park 155 113 42
Lynnwood 161 106 55
Marysville 178 118 60
Mill Creek 170 110 60
Monroe 182 131 51
Mount Vernon 202 142 60
Mountlake Terrace 154 107 47
Mukilteo 172 106 66
Oak Harbor 238 176 62
Redmond 158 125 33
Seattle 152 117 35
Snohomish 189 128 61
Stanwood 194 134 60
Whidbey Island 238 177 61
Woodinville 167 125 42
Woodway 157 112 45
Note: (1) Drive time from local zip code to airport gate + estimated security time (PAE=90 min, SEA=120 min)
Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004
Page 12Section 4
Destinations
Federal Av iation Administration (FAA) geographic regions
It is important to identify and quantify air travel destinations, but it is also important to measure air travel
to specific geographic regions. Generally, airlines operate route systems that serve geographic areas.
Additionally, most airline hubs are directional and flow passenger traffic to and from geographic regions,
not just destinations within the region. Therefore, air service analysis exercises consider the regional flow
of passenger traffic as well as passenger traffic to a specific city. Accordingly, this section analyzes the
regional distribution of air travelers from the airport catchment area. For this exercise, the FAA
geographic breakdown of the United States has been used (Exhibit 4.2).
Exhibit 4.2 FAA geographic regions
Northeast
Northwest
Great Lakes
East
Central
West
Southeast
Southwest
Alaska
Page 13Section 4
Destinations
Regional distribution of catchment area travelers
Regional distribution of air travel is an important consideration in identifying air carrier route systems that
have the ability to meet local demand for air service. Table 4.5 divides air travel from Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field’s catchment area into the FAA's nine geographic regions and one catchall
international region. International travel is further broken down in Table 4.6 (following page).
Of the area’s total air travelers, 36.7 percent were headed for cities in the West, 9.6 percent for cities in
the East, 9.3 percent of air travelers are traveling to the Southeast, and 15.6 percent were destined for
international destinations. Of the top 10 catchment area destinations, eight were located in the West
region and one was located in each of the Northwest and Great Lakes regions.
Table 4.5 Regional distribution of travel
Region Total
West Pax 50,179
% 36.7
International Pax 21,286
% 15.6
East Pax 13,086
% 9.6
Southeast Pax 12,662
% 9.3
Northwest Pax 11,614
% 8.5
Great Lakes Pax 10,085
% 7.4
Southwest Pax 9,102
% 6.7
Alaska Pax 3,150
% 2.3
Central Pax 2,847
% 2.1
Northeast Pax 2,623
% 1.9
Total passengers 136,634
% of column 100.0
Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Exhibit 4.3 Regional distribution of travel
Int'l
E 16%
10%
W
SE 3 6%
9%
NW
8.5% GL NE
SW AK C
7 .4% 1.9%
6 .7% 2 .3% 2.1%
Page 14Section 4
Destinations
Distribution of international travel
Approximately 15.6 percent of the survey's travelers had international itineraries. Of the 21,286
international travelers in the sample survey, 40.9 percent of air travelers were destined for Europe. 19.9
percent of air travelers with an international itinerary were destined for Asia. One factor contributing to
the high percentage of international itineraries is the array of direct international flight options out of
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.
Table 4.6 Regional distribution of international passengers
Region Total
Europe Pax 8,701
% 40.9
Asia Pax 4,239
% 19.9
Mexico or Central Pax 3,842
America % 18.0
Canada Pax 1,615
% 7.6
Caribbean Pax 945
% 4.4
Australia & Pax 724
Oceania % 3.4
Middl e East Pax 551
% 2.6
South Ameri ca Pax 476
% 2.2
Africa Pax 193
% 0.9
Total passengers 21,286
% of column 100.0
Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Exhibit 4.4 Regional distribution of international travel
Asi a
1 9.9% Eu rope
40.9 %
Me x. Or Ce nt
Amer.
1 8.0%
SA
Canad a
Ca rib. Aus t. ME Africa 2 .2%
7.6 %
4.4 % 3 .4% 2 .6% 0.9 %
Page 15Section 5
Airlines
Section 5. Airlines
It is important to understand which airlines are used to originate air travel and the destinations desired by
local air travelers. This section provides specific information on airlines used by travelers from the
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Information in this section is especially helpful in
identifying air carrier strength in specific markets. The air carriers listed in the following tables are the
marketing carriers, not necessarily the operating carrier. For example, Horizon Air is a code-share
partner with Alaska Airlines and operates much of the nonstop Seattle to Spokane, WA service.
Airlines used
Alaska Airlines including Horizon Air captured the greatest share of traffic (48.6 percent) to the top 25
destinations for the total survey with United Airlines and Northwest Airlines following behind with 17.0
percent and 5.1 percent of the traffic, respectively. For all destinations, Alaska Airlines lost a portion of its
market share lead down to 36.6 percent. United Airlines maintained their second place position with 16.7
percent. Northwest Airlines gained market share overall, with 8.4 percent. Delta Air Lines and American
Airlines took fourth and fifth highest market share, with market shares of 8.2 percent and 5.8 percent,
respectively. Southwest Airlines did not make the top five. However, its share may be understated due
to a high percentage of direct and online bookings which are not captured in this survey.
Table 5.1 Airlines used
Rank Destinations Alask a United Northwest Delta American Othe r Total
Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax
1 Las Vegas, NV 5 ,175 71.4 10 9 1. 5 0 0.0 17 0.2 0 0.0 1, 950 2 6.9 7, 251
2 San Dieg o, CA 4 ,958 92.0 23 6 4. 4 0 0.0 12 0.2 0 0.0 1 81 3.4 5, 387
3 Los Angeles, CA 2 ,967 63.7 1,48 7 31. 9 38 0.8 6 0.1 4 0.1 1 57 3.4 4, 659
4 Orange Coun ty, CA 4 ,367 94.4 20 0 4. 3 0 0.0 5 0.1 0 0.0 52 1.1 4, 624
5 Phoenix, AZ 2 ,592 64.6 13 2 3. 3 0 0.0 17 0.4 2 0.0 1, 268 3 1.6 4, 011
6 Spokane, WA 3 ,213 90.7 10 8 3. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 22 6.3 3, 543
7 San Fran cisco, CA 1 ,505 47.2 1,65 7 52. 0 11 0.3 7 0.2 1 0.0 6 0.2 3, 187
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 2 0.1 2,41 8 78. 8 54 1.8 21 0.7 508 16.6 65 2.1 3, 068
9 Kahului, HI 10 0.3 11 9 3. 9 423 1 4.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2, 467 8 1.7 3, 019
10 Hono lulu, HI 35 1.2 12 1 4. 2 1 ,220 4 2.6 5 0.2 0 0.0 1, 485 5 1.8 2, 866
11 New Yo rk Ne wark, NJ 484 16.9 31 1 10. 9 33 1.2 23 0.8 23 0.8 1, 987 6 9.5 2, 861
12 Dallas/Ft W orth, TX 15 0.5 84 6 30. 9 9 0.3 416 15.2 887 32.3 5 69 2 0.8 2, 742
13 Orlando, FL 768 29.2 33 7 12. 8 230 8.7 626 23.8 257 9.8 4 13 1 5.7 2, 631
14 Denver, CO 818 34.1 1,12 9 47. 1 73 3.0 53 2.2 0 0.0 3 23 1 3.5 2, 396
15 San Jose, CA 2 ,115 93.6 6 0. 3 0 0.0 5 0.2 0 0.0 1 34 5.9 2, 260
16 Reno , NV 1 ,415 73.2 26 1. 3 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 93 2 5.5 1, 934
17 Oa kland , CA 1 ,544 85.2 0 0. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 69 1 4.8 1, 813
18 New Yo rk JFK, NY 76 4.4 27 2 15. 8 19 1.1 797 46.4 419 24.4 1 36 7.9 1, 719
19 Min neapo lis, MN 30 1.8 12 4 7. 5 1 ,095 6 6.0 23 1.4 3 0.2 3 83 2 3.1 1, 658
20 Washingto n Dulles, DC 368 22.7 1,14 2 70. 4 16 1.0 9 0.6 20 1.2 68 4.2 1, 623
21 Londo n, England (Heathrow) 13 0.8 20 9 13. 6 5 0.3 0 0.0 143 9.3 1, 170 7 6.0 1, 540
22 Balt im ore, MD 0 0.0 50 0 34. 0 250 1 7.0 299 20.3 89 6.1 3 33 2 2.6 1, 471
23 Anchora ge, AK 1 ,230 83.8 59 4. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 78 1 2.1 1, 467
24 Atla nta, GA 2 0.1 18 0 12. 4 43 3.0 961 66.2 40 2.8 2 25 1 5.5 1, 451
25 Boston, MA 616 43.9 27 1 19. 3 51 3.6 39 2.8 234 16.7 1 93 1 3.7 1, 404
Total top 25 34 ,318 48.6 11,99 9 17. 0 3 ,570 5.1 3,34 1 4.7 2,630 3.7 14, 727 2 0.9 70, 585
Total top 50 42 ,390 44.8 14,87 9 15. 7 5 ,590 5.9 6,24 2 6.6 4,667 4.9 20, 852 2 2.0 94, 620
Total survey 50 ,000 36.6 22,87 9 16. 7 11 ,536 8.4 11,22 2 8.2 7,955 5.8 33, 042 2 4.2 136, 634
Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Page 16Section 6
Airfares
Section 6. Airfares
This section of the report is devoted to airfares paid by air travelers. Airfares paid by the survey travelers
are not available from the MIDT data. However, airfare information is available on a quarterly basis from
the U.S. DOT. The reader should keep in mind that this information does not relate directly to MIDT
survey data.
U.S. DOT reported airfares
Table 6.1 shows one-way actual domestic airfares (excluding taxes and passenger facility charges) paid
by all air travelers originating and/or destined for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport for the top 25
domestic survey destinations. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport's average domestic one-way fare for
all destinations was $152.13. The lowest average fare for the top 25 markets was $59.48 one-way to
Spokane. The highest fare for the top 25 domestic markets was Washington Dulles with an average one-
way fare of $295.79.
Table 6.1 U.S. DOT average fares
SEA One-
Rank Destination way fare
1 Las Vegas, NV $97.70
2 Sa n Diego , CA $135.60
3 Los Angeles, CA $131.67
4 Orange County, CA $150.68
5 Ph oenix, AZ $118.41
6 Sp okane, WA $59.48
7 Sa n Francisco, CA $119.28
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL $190.78
9 Ka hului, HI $248.17
10 Honolulu, HI $235.76
11 New York Newark, NJ $237.86
12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX $240.86
13 Orlando, FL $137.41
14 Denver, CO $145.09
15 Sa n Jose, CA $96.08
16 Reno, NV $74.13
17 Oakland, CA $93.04
18 New York JFK, NY $165.71
19 Minneapolis, MN $184.47
20 Washington Dulles, DC $295.79
21 Ba ltimore, MD $164.14
22 An chorage, AK $220.04
23 Atlanta, GA $225.84
24 Bo ston, MA $225.89
25 New Orleans, LA $169.29
Average fare all domestic markets $152.13
Note: Fares do not incl ude taxes or passenger facility charges.
Source: Data Base Products, Inc. – calendar year 2003
MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004
Page 17Section 6
Airfares
Ten-year average fare trend
Exhibit 6.1 tracks the average domestic one-way fares at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport from
calendar year 1994 through calendar year 2003. The fares do not include passenger facility charges or
taxes. The graph in Exhibit 6.2 charts the average fare for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport adjusted
for inflation (1994 dollars).
Average domestic one-way fares dropped from 1993 through 1996 partly due to low fare carrier
Southwest Airlines starting service in 1994. Fares increased from 1997 through 2000 on the basis of
strong economic growth. The soft economy and the effect of September 11, 2001 pushed airfares down
from 2001 through 2002. Fares recovered somewhat in 2003. For the period from 1994 through 2003,
air fares varied from $138.93 to $167.25. However, air fares began and ended the decade at about
$153.00.
Exhibit 6.1 Ten-year average fare trend
$170.00
$165.00 Seatle-Tacoma International Airport
One-way average fare
$160.00
$155.00
$150.00
$145.00
$140.00
$135.00
$130.00
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Calendar year
Source: Data Base Products, Inc .
Adjusted for inflation, average fares decreased at a compounded annual rate of 2.4 percent for Seattle-
Tacoma International Airport.
Exhibit 6.2 Ten-year average fare trend (1994 dollars)
$155.00
$150.00 Seatle-Tacoma International Airport
One-way average fare
$145.00
$140.00
$135.00
$130.00
$125.00
$120.00
$115.00
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Calendar year
Source: Data Base Products, Inc ., http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/c picalc.pl
Page 18Section 7
True market estimate
Section 7. True m arket estim ate
Methodology – market share
This portion of the Passenger Core Market Analysis is devoted to estimating the total number of trips
generated by the population in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Because
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field does not have commercial air service, its catchment area is
currently considered to be part of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s catchment area (exhibit 7.1). To
estimate the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market share, the population (determined using
Microsoft MapPoint 2004 population statistics) of the catchment area (yellow) is divided by the total
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area (yellow + light blue). It is estimated that the
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area contains approximately 28.6 percent (1,118,315)
of the total population of the current Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area (3,911,660).
Accordingly, the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area could garner a comparable share
of the area’s air travel market.
Exhibit 7.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area
Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004
Page 19Section 7
True market estimate
Methodology – passengers
By combining the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area population percentage
information with domestic passenger data contained in the U.S. DOT airline reports for Seattle-Tacoma
International Airport, an estimate of Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field’s domestic air travel market
can be calculated [Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field population share (28.6 percent) x Seattle-
Tacoma International Airport origin and destination passengers (17,611,880) = Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field true market (5,041,543)]. The total Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment
area true market passengers were distributed across the domestic origin and destination markets using
the percentage market share by destination identified in the MIDT survey. The top 50 true market
destinations are identified in Appendix B, True market estimate – top 50 markets.
In order to estimate the number of passengers traveling to each destination from the Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field catchment area, markets were ranked using the top destinations and percentage
market share by destination identified in the MIDT data. This information was mathematically combined
with U.S. DOT airline report information for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. A mentioned above,
Appendix B provides an estimate of the true market for the top 50 domestic destinations for Snohomish
County Airport/Paine Field.
True market
The Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area’s true market annual origin and destination
passengers are estimated to be 5,041,543 (Appendix B). An estimated 1,535,517 annual origin and
destination passengers are included in the top 10 destinations (Table 7.1). However, if commercial air
service were offered at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
would continue to attract a healthy share of the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market.
Estimating the number of passengers that would use the local airport and the air service improvements
required to serve these new customers are topics for further study.
Table 7.1 True market estimates – top 10 markets
Rank Airport SEA Reported PAE PAE market O&D paxs
O&D paxs survey % share % genera ted
1 Las Vegas, NV 831,580 5.3 32.2 267,549
2 San Diego, CA 520,650 3.9 38.2 198,770
3 Los Angeles, CA 839,100 3.4 20.5 171,909
4 Orange County, CA 462,820 3.4 36.9 170,617
5 Phoenix, AZ 665,270 2.9 22.2 147,999
6 Spokane, WA 496,120 2.6 26.4 130,730
7 San Francisco, CA 526,180 2.3 22.3 117,594
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 389,850 2.2 29.0 113,204
9 Kahului, HI 166,710 2.2 66.8 111,396
10 Honolulu, HI 296,260 2.1 35.7 105,750
Total top 10 markets 5,194,540 30.5 29.6 1,535,517
Total of all markets 17,634,390 100.0 28.6 5,041,543
Source: Data Base Products, Inc., MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004
Note: Hawaiian mar kets may be over stated due to a high perc entage of bookings pl aced thr ough travel agencies versus other
channels. Or non Snohomish C ounty Airport/Paine Fi eld catchment area resi dents booki ng travel through c atc hment area
agencies.
Page 20Section 7
True market estimate
Retention rate sensitivity
The true market estimate calculated a market share of 28.6 percent of the Seattle-Tacoma International
Airport market and assumed retention of 100.0 percent. Given the level of air service and low airfares at
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, it is logical that Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field will not retain
100.0 percent of its catchment area market share. Table 7.2 calculates the estimated passengers given
varying degrees of retention. In addition, passengers are estimated at each retention level for the top 25
markets.
With retention of 30.0 percent of the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market, 1,512,463 origin and
destination passengers would be generated annually. On a market-by-market basis, Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field could generate 80,265 passengers annually to the number one destination, Las
Vegas, with retention of 30.0 percent of the market.
Table 7.2 Retention rate sensitivity
Rank Airport Estimated % of Est. pax w ith retention of…
PAE pax market 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
1 Las Vegas, NV 267,549 5.3 53,510 80 ,265 107,019
2 San Diego, CA 198,770 3.9 39,754 59 ,631 79,508
3 Los Angeles, CA 171,909 3.4 34,382 51 ,573 68,763
4 Orange County, CA 170,617 3.4 34,123 51 ,185 68,247
5 Phoenix, AZ 147,999 2.9 29,600 44 ,400 59,199
6 Spokane, WA 130,730 2.6 26,146 39 ,219 52,292
7 San Francisco, CA 117,594 2.3 23,519 35 ,278 47,038
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 113,204 2.2 22,641 33 ,961 45,281
9 Kahului, HI 111,396 2.2 22,279 33 ,419 44,558
10 Honolulu, HI 105,750 2.1 21,150 31 ,725 42,300
11 New York Newark, NJ 105,566 2.1 21,113 31 ,670 42,226
12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 101,175 2.0 20,235 30 ,352 40,470
13 Orlando, FL 97,079 1.9 19,416 29 ,124 38,832
14 Denver, CO 88,408 1.8 17,682 26 ,522 35,363
15 San Jose, CA 83,390 1.7 16,678 25 ,017 33,356
16 Reno, NV 71,361 1.4 14,272 21 ,408 28,544
17 Oakland, CA 66,896 1.3 13,379 20 ,069 26,759
18 New York JFK, NY 63,428 1.3 12,686 19 ,028 25,371
19 Minneapolis, MN 61,177 1.2 12,235 18 ,353 24,471
20 Washington Dulles, DC 59,886 1.2 11,977 17 ,966 23,954
21 Baltimore, MD 54,277 1.1 10,855 16 ,283 21,711
22 Anchorage, AK 54,130 1.1 10,826 16 ,239 21,652
23 Atlanta, GA 53,539 1.1 10,708 16 ,062 21,416
24 Boston, MA 51,805 1.0 10,361 15 ,542 20,722
25 New Orleans, LA 48,152 1.0 9,630 14 ,446 19,261
Total of above 2,595,786 51.5 519,157 77 8,736 1,038,314
Total of all markets 5,041,543 100.0 1,008,309 1,512 ,463 2,016,617
Source: Data Base Products, Inc ., MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004
Page 21Section 8
Situation analysis
Section 8. Situation analysis
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field is located approximately 35 miles north of Seattle-Tacoma
International Airport near Everett, Washington. With a 9,010 foot runway and an ILS instrument
approach, it is capable of handling most commercial aircraft. It is located on the far northern edge of the
Seattle metro area while Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is located in a southerly portion of the
metro area. Population growth in the Seattle metro area in the last 15 to 20 years, the congested
available travel corridors between Lake Washington and Puget Sound, and the densely populated
suburbs east of Lake Washington have rendered access to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
extremely difficult from northern Seattle suburbs and populous areas to the north stretching toward
Everett, Mount Vernon, and Anacortes. While this is nearly a day long problem, it is accentuated during
morning and evening rush hours. The market for commercial air service at Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field was not viable 25 to 30 years ago, but the economic and population expansion in
more recent years has made this market more robust. Air travel from the Snohomish County
Airport/Paine Field catchment area via Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, complicated by time
consuming security considerations, has made it difficult to predict with any degree of confidence the
necessary lead time that must be allowed in order to comfortably make Seattle-Tacoma International
Airport flight departure time particularly during morning and evening rush hours. The problem is likely to
become worse in the future as no solutions are readily apparent.
The Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area has an estimated population of 1,118,315
with projections for continued rapid growth. It is estimated that the area currently generates over 5.75
million origin and destination passengers annually or nearly 2.9 million potential enplanements per year.
Given the extensive service available at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, only a portion of these
passengers would elect to use Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. However, traveling against the
prevailing traffic flow and lesser security clearance times equate to convenience and time-savings that
could result in many air travelers choosing Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field service even if
connections were required. Current gasoline price trends only add to the incentive for catchment area
passengers to use commercial air service at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field if it was available.
Seattle would be following the path of other major metro areas such as Los Angeles and San Francisco
where surface traffic congestion has spawned the emergence of secondary or satellite airports to restore
the convenience of air travel.
With the bulk of catchment area travel focused on destinations to the south, a cursory examination of
catchment area true market potential suggests that San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas
have air service potential. Though the potential indicates sufficient demand to allow use of larger aircraft,
realistically, initial service would likely utilize regional jets with upgrades to larger aircraft dependent on
marketplace response. The logical carrier for San Francisco service would be United Express due to its
hub. Los Angeles service could potentially be provided by United Express or Horizon Air. Phoenix and
Las Vegas service could be provided by America West Express or Horizon Air. America West Express
would be preferred particularly to Phoenix given its hub capability. Another possibility for Las Vegas
service would be scheduled charters with Allegiant Air the most likely service provider.
Page 22Section 8
Situation analysis
Though volumes are less, convenience needs suggest that service to an eastbound hub, Delta Air Lines
to Salt Lake City or Frontier Airlines or United Airlines to Denver, could likely be supported. Somewhat
surprisingly, there appears to be sufficient demand to make service to Hawaii a possibility though finding
a willing carrier may be difficult. Aloha Airlines’ service in Boeing 737 aircraft could be a possibility, but
would most likely not be considered until successful commercial scheduled service had been established
at the airport for a period of time.
The reasons favoring Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field service are somewhat obvious. Such
service would re-establish the convenience of air travel for the catchment area population of 1,118,315
who are now forced to struggle through the steadily worsening roadway congestion to reach Seattle-
Tacoma International Airport. The major hurdle or negative factor is the reluctance of airlines to duplicate
operations in a relatively compact geographic area. It involves a duplication of facilities as well as jobs
and many times a lowering of utilization at both facilities. Though this is a serious problem, the reality of
potentially being at a competitive disadvantage has prevailed in other large metro areas where satellite
airports (Long Beach, Burbank, San Jose, etc.) have developed. Spiraling costs at Seattle-Tacoma
International Airport may make carriers more receptive to possible alternatives. While many favorable
factors are present, more in-depth analysis, which is outside the scope of this study, is needed to
determine the feasibility and economic justification for scheduled commercial service from Snohomish
County Airport/Paine Field to the markets identified.
Page 23Appendix A
Glossary
Appendix A. Glossary
Airport catchment area (ACA) Direct flight
The geographic area surrounding an airport from A direct flight provides same-plane service
which that airport can reasonably expect to draw between two points, but stops at an intermediate
passenger traffic. The airport catchment area is airport(s).
sometimes called the service area.
Diversion
Airport codes Passengers that do not use the local airport for
LAX Los Angeles International Airport air travel, but instead use a competing airport to
Los Angeles, CA originate the air portion of their trip.
PAE Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field
Everett, WA Enplanement
SEA Seattle-Tacoma International Airport A passenger boarding a commercial aircraft.
Seattle, WA
FAA
Airline codes Acronym for the Federal Aviation Administration.
AA American Airlines
AS Alaska Airlines GDS
DL Delta Air Lines Acronym for Global Distribution Systems. There
NW Northwest Airlines are four Global Distribution Systems in the
UA United Airlines United States, including Amadeus, Galileo
WN Southwest Airlines International (Apollo), Sabre, Inc., and
Worldspan.
Average fare
The average of the fares reported by the airlines MIDT
to the U.S. DOT. The average fare as reported Acronym for Marketing Information Data Tapes
does not include taxes or passenger facility provided by the Global Distribution Systems.
charges and represents one-half of a round-trip
ticket (one-way). Nonstop flight
Air travel between two points without stopping at
Deplanement an intermediate airport.
A passenger that is departing or getting off a
commercial aircraft. O&D passengers
Includes all originating and destination
Destination airport passengers. In the context of this survey it
Any airport where the air traveler spends four describes the passengers arriving and departing
hours or more. This is the Federal Aviation an airport.
Administration definition.
Page 24Appendix A
Glossary
Originating airport Retention
The airport used by a traveler for the first Passengers that use the local airport for air
enplanement of a commercial air flight. travel instead of using a competing airport to
originate the air portion of their trip.
Passenger facility charge
Fee imposed by airports of $1 to $4.50 on True market
enplaning passengers. The fees are used by The true market is the total number of air
airports to fund FAA approved airport travelers, including those that are using a
improvement projects. competing airport, in the geographic area served
by Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. The
Pax true market estimate includes the size of the
Abbreviation for passenger. total market as well as estimates for specific
destinations.
Page 25Appendix B
True market estimate – top 50 markets
Appendix B. True m arket estim ate – top 50 m arkets
Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area total passengers generated
Rank Airport SEA reported PAE PAE market O&D paxs
O&D paxs survey % share % generated
1 Las Vegas, NV 831,580 5.3 32.2 267,549
2 San Diego, CA 520,650 3.9 38.2 198,770
3 Los Angel es, CA 839,100 3.4 20.5 171,909
4 Orange County, CA 462,820 3.4 36.9 170,617
5 Phoenix, AZ 665,270 2.9 22.2 147,999
6 Spokane, WA 496,120 2.6 26.4 130,730
7 San Francisco, CA 526,180 2.3 22.3 117,594
8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 389,850 2.2 29.0 113,204
9 Kahului, HI 166,710 2.2 66.8 111,396
10 Honolulu, HI 296,260 2.1 35.7 105,750
11 New York Newark, NJ 300,670 2.1 35.1 105,566
12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 295,650 2.0 34.2 101,175
13 Orlando, FL 255,120 1.9 38.1 97,079
14 Denver, CO 484,920 1.8 18.2 88,408
15 San Jose, CA 519,570 1.7 16.0 83,390
16 Reno, NV 263,070 1.4 27.1 71,361
17 Oakland, CA 667,370 1.3 10.0 66,896
18 New York JFK, NY 317,860 1.3 20.0 63,428
19 Minneapolis, MN 287,440 1.2 21.3 61,177
20 Washingto n Dulles, DC 226,280 1.2 26.5 59,886
21 Baltimore, MD 203,320 1.1 26.7 54,277
22 Anchorage, AK 311,740 1.1 17.4 54,130
23 Atlanta, GA 262,970 1.1 20.4 53,539
24 Boston, MA 231,260 1.0 22.4 51,805
25 New Orleans, LA 114,980 1.0 41.9 48,152
26 Houston Inter., TX 169,490 1.0 28.4 48,115
27 Fort Lauderdale, FL 124,810 0.9 38.2 47,709
28 Burbank, CA 283,700 0.9 16.3 46,381
29 Sacramento, CA 414,310 0.9 10.8 44,684
30 Salt Lake City, UT 336,160 0.9 13.2 44,315
31 Palm Springs, CA 142,500 0.8 29.8 42,507
32 Ontario, CA 287,720 0.8 14.5 41,769
33 Washingto n National, DC 117,730 0.8 33.3 39,186
34 Kona, HI 58,400 0.7 62.9 36,751
35 Norfolk, VA 62,170 0.7 58.2 36,160
36 Philadel phia, PA 174,870 0.7 20.5 35,865
37 Miami, FL 96,040 0.7 36.6 35,164
38 Boise, ID 294,100 0.6 10.8 31,622
39 Kauai Island, HI 55,970 0.6 51.9 29,039
40 St Louis, MO 147,900 0.6 19.5 28,781
41 Portland, OR 154,530 0.6 18.0 27,858
42 San Antonio, TX 84,420 0.5 32.5 27,415
43 Tampa, FL 126,000 0.5 21.6 27,194
44 Detroit, MI 160,910 0.5 16.9 27,120
45 Kansas City, MO 143,030 0.5 18.5 26,530
46 Chicago Midway, IL 212,600 0.5 12.2 25,976
47 Tucson, AZ 120,610 0.5 20.9 25,165
48 Albuquerqu e, NM 111,240 0.5 20.6 22,951
49 Raleigh/Durham, NC 93,570 0.4 24.2 22,619
50 Nashville, TN 106,110 0.4 20.9 22,213
Total of above 14,015,650 68.2 24.5 3,438,872
Total of all markets 17,634,390 100.0 28.6 5,041,543
Source: Data Base Products, Inc ., MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004
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