Overview of Hampshire's population
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Contents 1. Main Points ......................................................................................................................... 2 2. Things you need to know .................................................................................................... 3 3. Hampshire’s population is growing ...................................................................................... 4 4. What is causing population change in Hampshire? ............................................................13 5. Consequences of population change .................................................................................23 6. Annex ................................................................................................................................23 1
1. Main Points • In mid-2016, an estimated 1,365,000 people lived in Hampshire • Over the next 20 years the population of Hampshire is projected to grow by 8.4% to 1,480,000 • In Hampshire, the number of households is projected to grow from 561,000 in 2014 to 671,000 in 2039. This is an increase of nearly 20% • In 2016, there were 14,400 births and 12,700 deaths in Hampshire. Between 2008 and 2016, there have been more births than deaths which has contributed to Hampshire’s population growth • In the year to mid-2016, Hampshire’s net international migration was 2,600, with 5,700 people immigrating and 3,100 emigrating. In recent years Hampshire’s net migration has been steadily increasing, after a decade of fluctuating flows • Between 2014 and 2016, the life expectancy at birth in Hampshire for men was 81 years and for women was 84 years, this is slightly higher than England (80 years and 83 years, respectively) • British is the most common nationality in Hampshire (95%), followed by European Union (3%) and Non-European Union (2%) 2
2. Things you need to know Definition of Hampshire In this report we define ‘Hampshire’ as a county that consists of 11 Local Authorities (LA): Basingstoke and Deane, East Hampshire, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Hart, Havant, New Forest, Rushmoor, Test Valley and Winchester. Boundaries for different UK geographies do change over time. Hampshire previously included the Isle of Wight (until 1995) and Portsmouth and Southampton (until 1997). The data used in this report does not precede 2000, and there have been no boundary changes since this time. Figure 1: Local authority boundaries in Hampshire, 2017 Source: ONS Geography 3
3. Hampshire’s population is growing Population Estimates and Projections In 2016, an estimated 1,365,000 people lived in Hampshire. This is an increase of 8,000 since 2015. For Hampshire, the population is projected to grow by 4.8% over the next decade, from 1,365,000 in mid- 2016 to 1,431,000 by mid-2026. Over the next 20 years, the population projected to grow by 8.4% to 1,480,000. Although the population is growing, the rate of growth is not as high as England, where the population growth is projected to increase by 10.2% from 2016 to 2036. Figure 2: Hampshire population estimates and projections, 2001-2041 People (thousands) Estimated Projected 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 Source: ONS Population estimates (Mid-2016) and Population projections 2016-2041 (Mid-2026 and Mid- 2036) The populations of all Local Authorities within Hampshire are projected to increase by mid-2036, see Table 1. The populations of Test Valley and Winchester are projected to grow the fastest (12.3% and 11.5% over the next two decades, respectively). 4
Table 1: Projected population change for Hampshire Local Authorities, mid-2016 to mid-2036 Mid-2016 Mid-2026 Mid-2036 Projected Projected Percentage Percentage change over change over change over 10 change over 20 10 years 20 years years years England 55,268,100 58,505,600 60,905,500 3,237,500 5,637,400 5.9 10.2 Hampshire 1,365,100 1,431,300 1,480,400 66,200 115,300 4.8 8.4 Basingstoke and Deane 175,200 184,600 190,400 9,400 15,200 5.4 8.7 East Hampshire 118,700 124,300 128,600 5,600 9,900 4.7 8.3 Eastleigh 129,500 137,100 142,500 7,600 13,000 5.9 10.0 Fareham 115,800 122,100 127,200 6,300 11,400 5.4 9.8 Gosport 85,500 89,000 91,900 3,500 6,400 4.1 7.5 Hart 94,900 97,800 99,400 2,900 4,500 3.1 4.7 Havant 123,900 129,800 135,100 5,900 11,200 4.8 9.0 New Forest 179,500 186,000 192,000 6,500 12,500 3.6 7.0 Rushmoor 96,100 97,000 98,100 900 2,000 0.9 2.1 Test Valley 122,800 131,900 137,900 9,100 15,100 7.4 12.3 Winchester 123,100 131,500 137,200 8,400 14,100 6.8 11.5 Source: ONS Population estimates (Mid-2016) and Population projections 2016-2041 (Mid-2026 and Mid-2036) 5
Hampshire’s population change by broad age groups Hampshire’s projected population growth (4.8% over the next decade and 8.4% over the next two decades) is primarily driven by a growth in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over (projected 21.3% increase over the next 10 years and 47.2% increase over the 20 years). This growth in the size of the older population is a result of numerous societal changes: including improvements in the quality of healthcare, a shift towards healthier lifestyles and increasing rates of immigration. Table 2: Projected population change for Hampshire, by broad age group, mid-2016 to mid- 2036 Projected Projected Percentage Percentage change change change change Mid- Mid- Mid- over 10 over 20 over 10 over 20 2016 2026 2036 years years years years 0 to 14 years 236,000 238,000 233,000 2,000 -3,000 0.8 -1.3 15 to 64 years 844,000 847,000 827,000 3,000 -17,000 0.4 -2.0 65 and over 286,000 347,000 421,000 61,000 135,000 21.3 47.2 Source: ONS Population estimates (Mid-2016) and Population projections 2016-2041 (Mid-2026 and Mid-2036) Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Population estimates and projections’ for more detailed data tables. 6
Aged under 15 The proportion of Hampshire’s population aged under 15 is projected to decrease from 17.3% in 2016 to 16.6% in 2026 and 15% by 2036. Figure 3: Population estimates and projections of the population aged 0 to 14 in Hampshire – 2006, 2016, 2026 & 2036 Source: ONS Population estimates and Population projections 2014-2016. 7
Aged 15 to 64 The proportion of Hampshire’s population aged 15 to 64 is projected to decrease from 61.8% in 2016 to 59.1% in 2026 and to 55.9% by 2036. Rushmoor had, and is projected to have, the highest proportion of people aged 15 to 64 across LAs in Hampshire - 67.2% in 2016 projected to decrease to 65% in 2026 and then to 61.8% by 2036. Figure 4: Population estimates and projections of the population aged 15 to 64 in Hampshire – 2006, 2016, 2026 & 2036 Source: ONS Population estimates and Population projections 2014-2016. 8
Aged 65 and over The proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Hampshire is projected to increase from 20.9% in 2016 to 24.2% in 2026 and 28.4% by 2036. The greatest projected increase in the proportion of those aged 65 and over is in the New Forest; from 28.1% in 2016 to 31.8% by 2026 and 36.5% in 2036. Figure 5: Population estimates and projections of the population aged 65 and over in Hampshire – 2006, 2016, 2026 & 2036 Source: ONS Population estimates and Population projections 2014-2016. For more information on population estimates by age and sex please see Figure 2 in our latest Population estimates for England and Wales , and for Subnational projections please see Figure 6 in our interactive population pyramid in the Subnational projections for England: 2016-based bulletin. 9
Household Projections Since 2011, a household has been defined as one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room or dining area. In England, the number of households is projected to grow from 22.7 million in 2014 to 28.0 million by 2039. This is an increase of 5.3 million which equates to an average of 210,000 additional households per year. In England, one-person households are projected to increase by 69,000 per year, about 33% of the total household growth up to 2039. This trend is the same for Hampshire, where 33% of total growth is due to one-person households. This is due to an ageing population and greater life expectancies. In Hampshire, the number of households is projected to grow from 561,000 in 2014 to 671,000 in 2039. This is an increase of approximately 20%. Figure 6 shows the numbers of all household types are expected to increase in Hampshire between 2014 and 2039. The biggest percentage increase is ‘Other’ household types – an increase of approximately 32% between 2014 and 2039. The most common type of household in Hampshire in 2014 was ‘couple’ and ‘no other adult’ (173,000 households). In 2039, the most common household type will still be ‘couple’ and ‘no other adult’ (210,000 households). Figure 6: Household projections for Hampshire, by household type, 2014 and 2039 Number of households 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014 2039 2014 2039 2014 2039 2014 2039 2014 2039 One person Couple and no other Couple and one or Households with Other adult more other adult dependent children Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 10
Household projections in Hampshire by Local Authority In 2014, the local authority with the highest number of households was New Forest (79,000) followed by Basingstoke and Deane (71,000). The local authority with the fewest number of households was Rushmoor (36,000). These relate to the relative sizes of the resident population. For example, Rushmoor has one of the smallest populations of all the local authorities in Hampshire so it is likely that it will have fewer households. By 2039, the local authorities projected to have the highest number of households are New Forest (94,000) and Basingstoke and Deane (89,000). The local authorities projected to have the fewest number of households are Rushmoor (42,000) and Hart (42,000). The biggest percentage increase in household projections between 2014 and 2039 is in Winchester, where there is a projected rise of approximately 26% and in Basingstoke and Deane where there is a projected rise of approximately 25%. Figure 7: Household projections for local authorities in Hampshire, 2014 and 2039 Number of households (thousands) 2014 2039 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Across all local authorities, every type of household is projected to increase between 2014 and 2039. However, there are few exceptions. In Gosport, the number of households with dependent children is expected to fall from 11,000 in 2014 to 10,000 in 2039. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 11
Household size The average household size in England is projected to decrease between 2014 and 2039 from 2.35 to 2.21. Hampshire has slightly larger average household sizes than England, with 2.36 in 2014 and 2.24 in 2039, but is still projected to decline. Figure 8: The projected average household size for England, Hampshire and its constituent local authorities, 2014 and 2039 Source: Department for Communities and Local Government In January 2017, it was announced that ONS would take responsibility from DCLG for the production and publication for Household Projections for England. Further information on changes to the methodology, future publications, an update consultation and to provide feedback can be found in the 2016-based household projections methodology for England: changes to methodology. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 12
4. What is causing population change in Hampshire? Four dimensions drive change in a population’s size: births, deaths, immigration and emigration. These are explained as: • Natural change – the difference between births and deaths • Net Migration – the difference between the number of people moving into and out of an area Migration is also categorised as: • Internal migration – the movement of people between the four countries of the UK and between areas in England • International migration – the movement of people into and out of the country Natural Change Positive natural change implies a greater number of births than deaths in a population. If natural change is negative, then more deaths than births have occurred. In 2016, there were 14,000 births and 12,700 deaths in Hampshire. Between 2008 and 2016, there were more births than deaths which has contributed to Hampshire’s population growth. After 2012, the number of births decreased. The number of births has steadily declined since 2012. The number of deaths has steadily increased between 2008 and 2016. The fluctuating numbers of births and deaths have influenced natural change in the population. Figure 9 shows that the natural change in Hampshire’s population has decreased since 2013 as the numbers of births decline and deaths increase. Figure 9: Hampshire births, deaths and natural change, 2008 to 2016 Number of people Natural Change Births Deaths 15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Office for National Statistics Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 13
Fertility Fertility rates are used to enable comparisons across LAs in Hampshire as the number of births is relative to the size of a population. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of live children that a group of women would bear if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing lifespan. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.08 in the UK is used as a benchmark for the replacement fertility level. An average of two children by each woman would act as a replacement for the mother and father. It depends on several factors including the child living to reproductive age and the male-female sex ratio. In 2016, the TFR for women in the England was 1.81; a decrease from 2.00 in 2010. Comparatively, the TFR for women in Hampshire was 1.89 in 2016, a decrease from 2.06 in 2010, but it has fluctuated between this period. In the local authorities within the county of Hampshire the highest TFR in 2016 were in Test Valley and Rushmoor (2.12 and 2.05). Fareham experienced the lowest TFR of 1.79. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. Mortality The Age-Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR) is a measure of the death rate per 100,000 population. In 2016, there were 959.8 deaths per 100,000 people in England. During the same period, 852.2 deaths per 100,000 people were registered in Hampshire. The ASMR observed in Hampshire is considerably lower than England in 2016. At the local authority level, Rushmoor (1010.1) and Gosport (958.3) experienced the highest ASMRs in 2016. By way of comparison, Winchester (757.3) and New Forest (761.8) experienced the lowest during the same period. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 14
Life Expectancy Life expectancy at birth has been used as a measure of the health status of the population of England and Wales since the 1840s. ONS have continued to use this measure as an indicator of geographical inequalities in health since 2001. Between 2014 and 2016 the life expectancy at birth in Hampshire for men was 81 years and for women was 84 years. In comparison, between 2014 and 2016, the life expectancy at birth in England for men was 80 years and for women was 83 years. Hampshire has a slightly higher life expectancy for both men and women at birth in comparison to England. Figure 1 shows that in each local authority in Hampshire women have a higher life expectancy at birth than men. Across England women generally have a higher life expectancy than men. The highest life expectancy at birth in Hampshire is in Hart where women at birth have a life expectancy of 86 years. The average lowest life expectancy at birth in Hampshire are for men living in Gosport (79 years). Figure 10: The life expectancies of men and women at birth, in England and Hampshire, 2014 to 2016 Years Female Male 87 84 81 78 75 Source: Office for National Statistics In England between 2014 and 2016 the life expectancy for men aged 65 was 19 years and for women aged 65 was 21 years. In Hampshire, it was 20 years for men and 22 for women. Hampshire’s life expectancy at age 65 ranges between 19 and 23 years. The highest life expectancy at age 65 is 23 years for women in Hart, New Forest and Winchester. Life expectancy at birth and age 65 has improved in Hampshire – as well as the England - for both men and women between 2001 and 2016. The ageing population of the UK is influenced by many factors including mortality, fertility, improved health provisions and healthier lifestyles. To explore long-term trends in life expectancy in Hampshire’s local authorities, there is a useful tool that allows comparison of life expectancy at against other regions of the UK. 15
Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. Healthy life expectancy A related statistic to life expectancy is Healthy life expectancy (HLE). HLE is an estimate of the number of years lived in “Very good” or “Good” general health, based on how individuals perceive their general health. Between 2014 and 2016, the HLE in Hampshire for a male at birth was 68 years compared to 69 years for females. These are each higher than the respective figures in England during this time, where the HLE for a male at birth was 63 years, and 64 years for females. For men aged 65 in Hampshire, the HLE was 13 years, compared to 14 years for women at 65. Again, these figures are higher than those for England, where the HLE for men at 65 was 11 years, and 11 years for women. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data 16
Migration Long-Term International Migration Net migration is the number of immigrants (people moving to the UK for more than 12 months) minus the number of emigrants (people leaving the UK for more than 12 months). Natural change is partly responsible for an increase in the UK’s population, but the main driver of the UK’s population growth can be attributed to net migration. Recently Hampshire’s population follows a similar trend. In 2016, Hampshire had a net migration of 2,600 people; 5,700 people immigrated to Hampshire and 3,100 emigrated from Hampshire. In recent years, net migration in Hampshire has been increasing, but over the last decade it has fluctuated greatly. Hampshire’s migration patterns are in line with the overall migration trends for England over the past decade. Figure 11: Long term international immigration, emigration and net migration in Hampshire, 2005 to 2016 Number of people Net migration Immigration Emigration 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: International Passenger Survey Trends in immigration and emigration for Local Authorities in Hampshire vary considerably throughout the last decade. The New Forest and Basingstoke and Deane appear to be the two main areas that host immigrants in Hampshire. The local authorities that experience negative net migration in Hampshire vary from year to year. There are many factors influencing the fluctuations in net migration. Our interactive migration timeline highlights some key events that have taken place that may affect migration for the UK. These events may also be affecting migration trends for Hampshire. In addition to this direct effect of migration on the size of the population, current and past international migration also has indirect effects on the size of the population as it changes the numbers of births and deaths in the UK. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 17
Internal migration People are added to Hampshire’s population through internal migration as well as international migration. Internal migration is movement from within the UK. Hampshire’s population over the last 10 years has been growing due to positive internal net migration. In 2016, 50,700 people moved to Hampshire from other areas of the UK. Since 2005, the LAs with the greatest increases of internal migrants are the New Forest, Winchester and - most recently - Test Valley. Rushmoor, Basingstoke and Deane and Eastleigh have had the highest outflow of people. Some of this loss or gain is also from other local authorities within Hampshire. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. Short-Term International Migration Not everyone who visits Hampshire stays for longer than 12 months, but data on short term visits shows how attractive Hampshire may be for people not intending to stay long term. Short term international migration has several definitions. ONS produce estimates of Short-Term International Migration (STIM) at Local Authority level using the United Nations (UN) definition: "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least three months but less than a year (twelve months) except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage". STIM data is available by reason for UN defined Study and Employment. Figure 12: Short-Term International Migration for local authorities in Hampshire by reason for visit, mid-2016 Study Employment Basingstoke and Deane Rushmoor Winchester New Forest Test Valley Havant Hart East Hampshire Eastleigh Fareham Gosport 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Number of visits Source: International Passenger Survey and Administrative Data Sources Notes: 1. 2016 data are provisional 18
There were an estimated 2,000 visits to Hampshire for both Study (53%) and Employment (47%) reasons in year ending mid- 2016. This accounted for 1% of all short term visits to England. Hampshire has a similar distribution of visits by reason in comparison to the England, with 45% of visits for Employment and 55% of visits for Study. After estimations began in 2008, there has been a general decline across all local authorities in visits for employment reasons until about 2012, when visits began increasing again. Short term visits for study across most authorities have stayed relatively stable over the last decade, with a sharper increase seen between mid-2015 and mid-2016. Hampshire did see an increase in visits for the year ending mid-2013. Basingstoke and Deane (347), Winchester (226) and Test Valley (221) were the most popular areas for Study. Gosport (7), East Hampshire (14) and Rushmoor (14) were the least popular for study. In contrast, Rushmoor is one of the most popular areas for employment with 127 visits for this reason in 2016. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. Population by Nationality We can also estimate the population by their nationality. This is useful as it can highlight which areas might be most affected from the UK leaving the European Union. Nationality also reflects an individual’s rights to work and access services in the UK. See Annex 1 for grouping definitions. British was the most popular nationality for Hampshire and its constituent Local Authorities, with 95% of Hampshire having a British nationality in 2017. This has been decreasing since 2000, when 97.7% of Hampshire’s population was British. England has seen a greater decrease, 95.3% of England’s population were British Nationals in 2000 compared to 89.9% on 2017. Between 2000 and 2015, most non-British nationality holders in Hampshire have been from countries outside the EU. Since 2015, EU nationals have been greater. This differs from the trends England has seen. In England the EU national population has been steadily increasing since 2000 from 1.5% to 6.2% in 2017. Table 4 shows the Hampshire population by nationality. EU14 countries have been the most popular nationalities, this is closely followed by EU8 countries from around 2005 and EU2 countries in 2014. This is consistent with changes in legislation and rights to work in the UK. The population of nationals from other European countries has remained in the several thousand over the last two decades but decline greatly in the last four years. In the last ten years, there has also been a noticeable increase in Asian nationals. Nationalities from the non-EU countries peaked in 2008-2009 at around 20,000 for Hampshire. This figure has since fallen to around 8,000 to 13,000. In 2017 the local authorities within Hampshire with the highest proportion of those with a non-British nationality are Rushmoor (12.8%), Basingstoke (6.8%) and Test Valley (5.9%), (Table 5). There are some local authority populations within Hampshire that differ from the county as whole. Fareham has a very low non-British population and of those non-British the majority are from Asia and the regions of the world beyond the EU and Asia. Since 2000, Gosport had low counts of non-British Nationalities, and of those who are not British their nationality differs year on year. Please see supplementary Excel file ‘Detailed tables’ for more detailed data. 19
Table 4. Percentage of population by Nationality for Hampshire, 2000 to 2017 Percentage Year Total Population British Non-British EU Non-EU EU14 EU8 EU2 EU Other Asia Rest of World Other Europe 2000 1,216,000 97.7 2.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 z z z 0.3 0.4 0.3 2001 1,220,000 98.0 2.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 z z z 0.3 0.7 0.1 2002 1,224,000 97.9 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 z z z 0.3 0.7 0.1 2003 1,233,000 97.2 2.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 z z z 0.6 0.7 0.2 2004 1,235,000 96.9 3.0 1.2 1.9 1.1 c z c 0.6 0.9 0.2 2005 1,243,000 97.3 2.7 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 z c 0.4 0.9 0.1 2006 1,252,000 96.8 3.2 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 z 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 2007 1,263,000 96.4 3.6 1.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 . c 0.7 1.5 0.3 2008 1,273,000 95.8 4.2 1.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 . . 1.1 1.7 0.1 2009 1,282,000 95.5 4.4 2.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 c c 0.8 1.6 c 2010 1,292,000 96.7 3.3 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 c 0.9 0.9 0.2 2011 1,302,000 97.5 2.5 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 c 0.8 0.5 0.2 2012 1,310,000 96.1 3.9 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 . c 1.2 0.9 0.2 2013 1,318,000 96.5 3.5 0.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 . . 1.5 1.0 c 2014 1,327,000 96.0 3.9 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 c 1.3 1.0 c 2015 1,335,000 96.1 3.9 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 c 1.0 0.8 c 2016 1,342,000 95.6 4.4 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 c 0.7 0.6 c 2017 1,350,000 95.0 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 Average N/A 96.6 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 Source: Annual Population Survey 20
Notes: 1. Total will not sum to 100 due to group break downs which may include some repetitions 2. Totals may not sum due to rounding 3. Data are year ending December between 2004 and 2017, prior to this data is from March to February 4. . = no contact 5. C = not available due to disclosure control 6. Z =not applicable 21
Table 5. Percentage of total population by Nationality for Local Authorities and Unitary Authorities in Hampshire, 2017 Percentage Area Total Population British Non-British EU Non-EU EU14 EU8 EU2 EU Other Other Europe Asia Rest of World Hampshire 1,350,000 95.0 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 Basingstoke 176,000 93.2 6.8 5.7 1.1 3.4 1.1 1.1 . . c c East Hampshire 117,000 97.4 2.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 . . . . . 0.9 Eastleigh 132,000 96.2 3.0 2.3 0.8 1.5 0.8 . . c c c Fareham 115,000 98.3 1.7 . 1.7 . . . . . . 1.7 Gosport 84,000 97.6 2.4 2.4 . c . . 2.4 . . . Hart 93,000 95.7 4.3 2.2 2.2 . . 2.2 . . 2.2 . Havant 122,000 97.5 3.3 1.6 1.6 . 1.6 . . . c c New Forest 179,000 95.5 3.9 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 . . . c 1.1 Rushmoor 94,000 88.3 12.8 3.2 9.6 c 2.1 c . 2.1 7.4 c Test Valley 119,000 94.1 5.9 3.4 2.5 c 3.4 . . . c 1.7 Winchester 119,000 92.4 7.6 6.7 0.8 1.7 3.4 1.7 . . c c Source: Annual Population Survey Notes: 1. Total will not sum to 100 due to group break downs which may include some repetitions 2. Totals may not sum due to rounding 3. Data are year ending December 2017 4. . = no contact 5. C = not available due to disclosure control 22
5. Consequences of population change The population of the UK (including Hampshire) is constantly changing and is projected to continue changing in the coming decades. With lower birth rates and higher life expectancy, the shape of the population in the UK is transforming. Whilst longevity is something to celebrate, the proportion of those of a working age is shrinking whilst those of a pensionable age is increasing. While a larger population can increase the size and productive capacity of the workforce, it also increases pressure to provide social services such as education, healthcare and housing. 6. Annex Definitions for population by nationality UK-born includes Guernsey, Jersey, Isle of Man, and Channel Islands. British nationality additionally includes the following overseas territories: Anguilla; Bermuda; British Indian Ocean Territory; British Virgin Islands; Cayman Islands; Falkland Islands; Gibraltar; Montserrat; Pitcairn, Henderson, Ducie and Oeno Islands; South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands; St Helena; Turks and Caicos Islands. EU14 are the countries of the EU, excluding the UK, as constituted between 1 January 1995 and 1 May 2004. These are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Spain and Sweden. EU8 countries are the 8 Central and Eastern European countries that acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004. Namely, these are: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. EU2 countries are the 2 countries that acceded to the EU on 1 January 2007; Bulgaria and Romania. Other EU refers to Cyprus and Malta (which acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004), and Croatia (from 1 July 2013, when Croatia joined the EU). EU27 countries are all the countries of the EU, excluding the UK, as constituted between 1 January 2007 and 1 July 2013. They are comprised of the EU14, EU8, EU2 and Other EU country groups Other Europe are all the European countries not part of the EU (including Croatia up to 1 July 2013, but excluding thereafter). Asia includes all of the Middle East and Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia and South East Asia. Rest of the world refers to all other countries not belonging to one of the above-defined groups. Non-EU countries are comprised of Other Europe, Asia and Rest of the world. 23
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