OUTLOOK 2021: COVID-19 AND TRANSPORT - White Paper Update February 2021 - SNC-Lavalin
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OUTLOOK 2021: COVID-19 AND TRANSPORT White Paper Update February 2021
COVID-19: A YEAR IN REVIEW
A year ago, most people weren’t thinking about a global pandemic and few had considered the risks that such
an event would transform our everyday experience. Today the news headlines are consumed by little else.
Within a number of sobering milestones for COVID-19 as it has taken hold around the world is the first case in Total Cases
the GCC, reported on 29th January 2020 in the UAE. 101,502,266
Since that milestone, a year of the pandemic has proven to be worse than the most pessimistic predictions. As Total Deaths
of 29th January 2021, reported global COVID-19 cases have reached over 101 million with 2.2 million deaths. 2,194,866
With the emergence of several variants at the end of 2020, second and third waves of infections are being seen
in many countries. In spite of hopes that the crisis could be largely contained within 2020, the realities of social New Daily Cases
distancing, face masks, home working, domestic and international travel restrictions and stringent lockdowns 609,271
remain an unsettling reality for millions.
New Daily Deaths
15,180 New cases per million
people (7 day average)
Total cases per million people
Case-Fatality Ratio
2.2%
Figure 1 – One year on, the global pandemic continues and COVID-19 cases
and deaths are at record levels
Total Cases by Region Total Deaths by Region New Cases (7-day moving average) New Deaths (7-day moving average)
300K 6K
3.54M (3%) 176K(8%) 90K (4%)
12.16M (12%)
6.18M(6%) 100K(5%)
250K 5K
Regions 15.73M (15%) Regions 685K (31%)
29.52M (29%) 412K(19%) Regions Regions
Africa Africa 200K Africa 4K
Africa
Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific
Europe Europe Europe
Europe 3K
150K
Middle East Middle East Middle East Middle East
North America North America North America North America
South America South America South America 100K South America 2K
South Asia South Asia South Asia South Asia
1K
50K
4.67M (5%) 636K(29%) 96K (4%)
29.71M(29%)
0K
0K Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021
Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021
2
In terms of public health, the countries of the GCC have weathered the storm better than those of Europe or Total Cases (per million people) Total Deaths (per million people)
the Americas, although lagging behind East Asia. Nevertheless, over 1.14 million cases have been recorded in 80K
the region and over 10,000 people have died. Significant surges in cases are currently being seen in the UAE,
78,346
1,320
Locations Locations
Bahrain and Kuwait. Whilst these are not being translated into substantial increases in mortality, there has Australia Australia
958
914
60K 1,000
been an increase in public health messaging, border monitoring and regulatory enforcement. Canada Canada
39,441
East and Southeast Asia East and Southeast Asia
36,529
Europe Europe
COVID-19 is a global economic crash as much as a public health emergency. However, the GCC has experienced 40K
525
GCC GCC
20,532
20,711
a unique set of circumstances as the impacts of the pandemic combine with major falls in the price of oil. Whilst India India 500
South America South America
mainstream society has now substantially reopened across the region, levels of business activity, investment, 20K
7,778
United States United States
176
tourism and mobility remain challenging, projects have been disrupted and few public agencies have been
112
1,130
1,008
36
24
able to maintain spending at previous levels. Furthermore, in the long-term, with the need for credible climate 0K 0
action now changing the geopolitical agenda, COVID-19 offers the region an early taste of the approaching
post-oil era and demonstrates the need for accelerated economic and social reform.
New Cases (7-day moving average) New Deaths (7-day moving average)
In short, this is a bitter anniversary. The current public health and socio-economic situation is not where we Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
60
wanted to be a year on. By now, the expectation was that COVID-19 would be in retreat and the prospect of life
New Cases (7-day moving average) New Deaths (7-day moving average)
going back to normal within reach. Whilst the GCC is a long way from the dire position of Europe or the USA, 4K
Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
there is some way yet to go to the end of the pandemic and a sustained recovery. 60
40
4K
Figure 2 – GCC COVID-19 cases are substantial and rising in early 2021, but 2K
40
20
rates of mortality are comparatively low against Europe and the Americas
2K
20
0K 0
Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021
Total Cases
1,143,122
Total Cases Total Deaths
0K 0
Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021
Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
Total Deaths
101,971 (8%) 826 (8%) 372 (4%)
10,105 Total Cases Total Deaths 958 (9%)
297,014 (24%)
Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
164,108 (14%)
New Daily Cases 101,971 (8%) 826 (8%) 372 (4%)
1,527 (15%)
4,514 958 (9%)
297,014 (24%)
164,108 (14%)
133,728 (11%)
New Daily Deaths 248 (2%)
1,527 (15%)
Date
12
1/29/2020
367,543 (30%) 150,621133,728
(12%) (11%) 6,368 (62%)
248 (2%) 1/29/2021
Case-Fatality Ratio Date
0.90% 1/29/2020
367,543 (30%) 150,621 (12%) 6,368 (62%)
1/29/2021
3
INTO THE SECOND YEAR OF THE PANDEMIC
Whilst the early months of 2021 will be hard, there are some grounds for optimism as we head into the second
year of the pandemic.
The development of better therapeutic treatments is a key factor. Survival rates of patients hospitalised with
acute COVID-19 illness are now substantially better than March or April 2020, especially in the GCC where
mortality rates have been consistently low compared to other parts of the world.
The certification of a number of effective vaccines at the end of 2020 is significant gamechanger, especially if
they suppress transmission as well as disease. If the logistical challenges of producing the vaccines at scale,
distributing them to where they need to be and immunising the most vulnerable groups, can be overcome then
it will be possible to substantially reduce hospitalisations and deaths. As countries such as the UAE and UK
rush to rapidly vaccinate their citizens and residents, the prospect is that the second half of 2021 may herald
the beginnings of a sustained removal of restrictions, at least in those regions where mass inoculation covers Figure 3 – The GCC has commenced mass vaccination of its population
most of the population.
Total Vaccinations Total Vaccinations (per 100 inhabitants)
Until then, there is a race between the virus and the pace of vaccination. If vaccine production and distribution Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
3.5M 35
is delayed, there is ambivalence or resistance by significant proportions of the population, or virus mutation
reduces vaccine effectiveness, then return to normality may be delayed. 3,114,167 31.49
3.0M 30
The first months of 2021 may not therefore be much different from the end of 2020, with matters getting
worse before they get better. However, ultimately, we can now see how the pandemic will end – through 2.5M 25
mass testing, vaccination, health passporting, a resulting drop in cases and deaths, leading to increased
public confidence and a gradual easing of social restrictions. Experience from previous pandemics suggests 1,971,521 19.93
psychologically and behaviourally COVID-19 may end sooner, with people desperate to resume as much as
2.0M 20
their “normal” activities as possible once they feel they can do so without significant danger to themselves
and others. 1.5M 15
1,275,652 12.90
In the long-term, COVID-19 may remain endemic in many parts of the world, becoming part of the underlying 1.0M 10
9.98
disease profile of the population, similar to seasonal flu. It will therefore require ongoing monitoring, vigilance
and periodic public health and vaccination campaigns, locally disruptive but falling well short of aggressive
826,301 8.35
and all-embracing societal shutdowns at a global level. 0.5M 5 4.60
391,643
3.45
178,337 169,810
137,862 1.12
58,643 78,291 2.29 0.73
2,500 12,751 18,287 37,045 0.06 0.25 0.40 0.36
100,000 0.51
0.0M 38,965 1,717 0 0.03 0.29
Dec 27 Jan 03 Jan 10 Jan 17 Jan 24 Dec 27 Jan 03 Jan 10 Jan 17 Jan 24
4
TRANSPORT SECTOR RESPONSES
Globally, the pandemic and restrictions on activities within and between countries across the World have
inevitably affected personal mobility and, by implication, reduced access to various destinations and the
demand for transport.
According to mobile data collected by organisations such as Google and Apple, non-residential destinations
in many countries saw falls in excess of 60 to 90 per cent at the time of maximum restrictions during April
and May 2020. Mobility levels have partially recovered in some locations, including the GCC, as facilities have
re-opened, but are still running around 20 to 40 per cent below pre-lockdown levels. Renewed falls in mobility
are also evident, for example in many European cities or within international aviation, as curfews, lockdowns
and travel restrictions have been reimposed to handle new waves of infection since late 2020. It is likely to
be some time before activity returns, impacted by continuation of some direct social restrictions, cessation of
businesses and jobs, the substitution of physical with online activities and, in some cases, the repatriation of
migrant workers to their home countries triggering significant reductions in population.
Figure 4 – Countries are making different degrees of progress in their early
vaccination campaigns
Total Vaccinations
(per 100 inhabitants)
60.0
53.8
50.0
40.0
30.4
30.0
20.0
13.1
10.0
10.0 8.4
2.0 2.8 3.0
0.8 1.6 0.3 0.5 1.1
0.1 0.0
0.0
Germany
India
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
China
France
Israel
Mexico
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Oman
United Kingdom
Bahrain
United States
5Figure 5 – National and localised lockdowns, curfews and other restrictions have had a direct impact on mobility which remains below pre-pandemic levels
London New York Singapore Melbourne
1.0 100 1.0 100 1.0 100 1.0 100
0.5 50 0.5 50 0.5 50 0.5 50
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0
-0.5 -50 -0.5 -50 -0.5 -50 -0.5 -50
-1.0 -100 -1.0 -100 -1.0 -100 -1.0 -100
Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021
Paris Milan Dubai Riyadh
Day of the Week Day of the Week
1.0 100 1.0
100 1.0 100 1.0
100
Friday Friday
Monday Monday
1/1/2020 1/29/2021 1/1/2020 1/29/2021
Thursday Day of the Week Thursday Day of the Week
Tuesday Tuesday
0.5 50 0.5 Multiple
50 selections 0.5 50 0.5 Multiple
50 selections
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Tomtom Congestion Difference
Wednesday Wednesday
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
Google Mobility Indexes
0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0
-0.5 -50 -0.5 -50 -0.5 -50 -0.5 -50
-1.0 -100 -1.0 -100 -1.0 -100 -1.0 -100
Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021
Day of the Week Day of the Week
Friday Monday
Monday Sunday
1/1/2020 1/29/2021 1/1/2020 1/29/2021
Thursday Day of the Week Thursday Day of the Week
Tuesday Tuesday
Wednesday
Multiple selections Wednesday
Multiple selections
6Of course, there is well-cited evidence from early 2020 that the slowdown in economic activity had unforeseen
positive consequences. Congestion levels fell, air quality improved, carbon emissions declined; many people
perceived an improved quality of life in working from home and interacting in their local neighbourhoods by
foot or bicycle. There is less evidence that the latest restrictions are having an equivalent positive effect.
Although data is needed to confirm this in due course, some places are may be seeing increases in traffic
levels and associated impacts as people shun public and shared transport in favour of private vehicles. Hence
COVID-19’s environmental dividend is likely to have reduced or be negated over time.
Nevertheless, the transport sector, and the people and organisations within it, continues to have a positive
story to tell in its response to the pandemic. Our early analysis 1 summarised a range of factors which remain
relevant in current circumstances. These relate particularly to keeping transport infrastructure and facilities
open, maintaining the movement of essential goods and services, ensuring the protection of workers and
travellers, and monitoring and managing mobility in line with changing regulations and in collaboration with
agencies from other sectors.
Many of these practices, commenced in the early days of the pandemic, have been continually refined
and optimised based on experience, and in some cases have been reimposed or stepped up in face of the
resurgence of infections. A range of longitudinal research studies is under way, collecting detailed evidence
on sector impacts and responses and helping to develop more robust procedures which may be deployed in
future crises².
As an organization, our experts are proud to have worked with other transport professionals in assisting
the Association of European Transport and the World Road Association, PIARC, in documenting and sharing
emerging good practice3. In the face of the challenges presented by COVID-19, the sector now has increased
knowledge and capacity to better maintain safe and functional networks. These dimensions will be important
in the months and years ahead, responding to the final stages of the pandemic, managing other endemic
pathogens, tackling localised outbreaks and supporting sustained reopening and recovery.
Every country has its own circumstances, but the experience of organisations and individuals working in the
transport sector to respond to the pandemic remains one to be commended. Professionals at all levels have
encountered multiple and complex logistical challenges and turned to a range of measures, modified working
practices and social distancing to protect themselves, users and stakeholders and provide business continuity.
There are numerous stories of employees across all functions carrying on, rising to the challenge, finding
practical work-arounds to short-term challenges and getting the job done. Alongside health workers and
responders in other sectors, they deserve our heartfelt thanks and gratitude for what they have done, and
continue to do, at this time of crisis.
1
COVID-19 and Transport – White Paper I – SNC-Lavalin.
²
Future of Transportation - SNC-Lavalin
3
PIARC | COVID-19: Initial Impacts and Responses to the Pandemic from Road and Transport Agencies
7Table 1 – The transport sector has undertaken key activities and can claim some positive
achievements in its response to the pandemic
Dimension Activity and Achievement
Keeping Transport Keeping transport infrastructure and networks open, operational, safe and effective at the
Infrastructure Open required level of service to safeguard basic connectivity
Regulating and maintaining the movement of essential goods, workers, supplies
Maintaining Essential
and services, including those necessary for food security, public health, business
Movements
resilience and industry
Monitoring and managing personal mobility and transport demand including
Managing Mobility and
social distancing, access regulation and reallocation of capacity to freight,
the Demand for Transport
active travel and micromobility
Protecting Health and Agility in managing a diverse workforce, ensuring the protection, health, hygiene
and safety of staff, especially those in operational roles, contractors,
Safety on the Frontline
visitors and the public
Connecting, managing & maintaining effectiveness of managerial and administrative staff,
Achieving Productive
either appropriately regulated within COVID-secure offices or, more predominantly,
Remote Working
working effectively from home
Planning and scheduling construction, maintenance and other asset and network
Planning and Managing
management activities in line with changing demand, operational circumstances
Assets and Networks
and resource availability
Strengthening Collaboration Adapting organisational mandates, maintaining collaboration across public agencies and
and Governance with supply chain partners, including contract management
Recognising Long-Term Planning for longer-term transport sector needs post-COVID-19 including assessing
behavioural change, resilience, scenario planning, financial sustainability and the potential
Needs beyond the Pandemic
of technology and digitisation
8THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORT
By second half of 2021, it is hoped that the pandemic will be “over” in many parts of the world, at least in terms
of public confidence and the need for aggressive public health intervention with acutely negative economic and
Figure 6 – We envision eight building blocks for the future of the
social consequences. Delays in distributing vaccines, or the emergence of significant virus mutations, could transport sector
delay this into 2022, and make it more likely that COVID-19 will endure as an endemic condition requiring
ongoing mitigation and management. Even in this latter instance, however, “normality” is likely to return at Building Block
some point, although at different times in different places.
With sustained reopening and recovery, the medium- to long-term implications of the pandemic will become
clearer. COVID-19 has introduced a massive shock into a transport system which was already vulnerable
to change. In emerging from the crisis, whilst the focus should rightly be on short-term measures to safely
reconnect people, places and things, we should aim to better organise the sector towards a positive sustainable
and inclusive vision of the future. Recent waves of the pandemic possibly delay, but do not fundamentally alter
the need for, this paradigm shift.
Even before COVID-19, the principles which have shaped transport planning for decades were under pressure.
A focus on road-based private transport, powered by fossil fuels, was increasingly seen as untenable in the
face of growing urbanisation, congestion, environmental degradation, declining natural resources, pressure on
public budgets and an unsustainable contribution to climate change. At the same time, disruptive automation,
smart transit systems, electric powertrains, shared and online service models have emerged within a new
digital paradigm able to provide efficient and inclusive access and connectivity with far fewer externalities and
closer to the carrying capacity of natural ecosystems.
Using new planning concepts, diagnostic tools, data and forms of analysis, COVID-19 now demands that we
reframe our ideas on the future of transport and many of these propositions which have hitherto been on the
periphery. Within the post-pandemic recovery, it is already clear that a range of mega-trends will re-assert
themselves, accelerate and experience a step-change as policy makers, regulators, industry and consumers
look towards cleaner and more liveable built environments, social equity, decarbonisation, flexible and
personalised digital services on demand, as well as fostering innovation as a source of competitive advantage
and wealth creation. This is likely to take place within a substantially stronger and consolidated supplier
market, tested and shaken out during COVID-19, with the private sector providing solutions against policy and
regulatory objectives which recognise the need for resilience to future pandemics and other crises.
9Looking beyond the immediate crisis, our reimagined approach to the future of transport comprises eight Table 2 – Our eight building blocks will come to the fore as the pandemic
cross-cutting building blocks4 which will shape the way forward. These blocks have global relevance and
applicability, although the precise context, problem definition, terminology, order of priority and translation nears its end
into action will vary by geography. The programmes of activity they give rise to, and the teams to deliver them,
will also be highly localised, although given the continued interconnectedness of the world economy, not
entirely independent. Building Block Description
Embed Sustainability Alongside planning, regulatory and financial enablers, taking opportunities to “build back
In the GCC, the building blocks are already playing out in a number of localities and contexts. Riyadh Metro, into Accelerated better” in assets and facilities, for example incorporating active travel, electric vehicle
due to open shortly, offers a new direction for public transport in Saudi Arabia aligned with Vision 2030, whilst Infrastructure charging networks and public transport facilities
planning concepts such as The Line in NEOM offer the potential for a new form of sustainable urban living
without roads or cars. Dubai in the UAE is due to reimagine mobility at Expo 2020, showcase autonomous
Drive and Manage If remote working, e-learning and online shopping remain as permanent behavioural
urban logistics at its Self-Driving Transport Challenge and reconsider urban planning and design around ideas changes and business models, understanding the significant implications for demand,
of wellbeing, healthy lifestyles and active travel. The region’s role as a travel hub will demand that enhanced Digital Connectivity
transport services and organisational management
passenger and employee monitoring, sanitisation and infection control at scale remains a priority for the
aviation sector.
Reset Future Mobility Whilst short-erm Investment may be curtailed, tracking and shaping longer-term trends
Technologies and accelerating technological change as transport consolidates around strong players with
Finally, based on our proposals for New Alliances,5 closer forms of collaborative contracting between project Services strategies and resources to drive innovation
sponsors and their supply chain are likely to benefit major project design, construction and operation,
accompanied by increasing digitisation, saving time and cost and improving outcomes for end users.
Reaffirm Public Assisting public transport in regaining its role in supporting local economies, providing social
Transport as the cohesion and promoting sustainability, with investment and innovation needed to meet
One particularly striking impact of the pandemic has been the massive switch from physical face-to-face Backbone of Mobility customer needs, evolve resilient business models and integrate with other service providers
interactions to digital transactions and services, ranging from working from home to online shopping, e-learning
and a host of virtual communities. A key question is the extent to which this will continue post-pandemic Going beyond road safety, crime and security, with a new emphasis on public health and
Focus on, and
and whether potentially years of incremental technological and behavioural change may be compressed sanitisation, driving new forms of body scanning, personal monitoring, infrastructure and
Expand, Transport
into a step-change over the course of months. If so, there are questions over the pros and cons of such a vehicle cleaning procedures at scale, together with an accelerated move to
Health and Safety contactless/cashless transactions
revolution and how it will play out under different scenarios for the future and whether physical offices, retail
stores, schools and universities, and indeed whole city and district centres, reinvent themselves. The latter
Redirect Transport With carbon emissions rebounding, taking tangible actions which drive a shift to sustainable
may revolve around a redefined need for human interaction, vibrant and compelling experiences, heritage transport modes, manage travel demand and support electric powertrains and alternative
and culture, and an attractive public realm, which are difficult if not impossible to replicate online, replacing towards Credible Net
fuels, with action extending from land transport to credible initiatives in aviation and
Zero
the basic exchange of commodities, narrow definitions of economic agglomeration and spatially-proximate maritime
transactions dominated by road-based accessibility. Optimise Asset,
Supply Chain Assuring asset and supply chain integrity and optimisation, last-mile movement and
Such considerations will have massive implications for transport, and the demands from which it is derived, deployment of automated and remote operation, as well as making iinfrastructure &
Performance &
services, informed by data analytics, adaptable to future shocks
which will need to be carefully tracked, analysed and forecast moving forward. There is a need to identify and Resilience
realise the opportunities, and manage or control some of the risks. Scenario planning will be important for Deliver Smart
supporting existing modelling and forecasting techniques in representing and responding to a broader and Governance, Reviewing the mandate, operating model and funding of transport agencies, as well as the
basis of regulation, with new opportunities for the private sector to drive investment and
more uncertain range of future possibilities and desired interventions. Regulation and
delivery, within a supportive enabling environment.
Collaboration
4
COVID-19 and Transport – White Paper II – SNC-Lavalin.
5 New Alliances - Collaborative Contracting in the GCC Projects Market – White Paper – SNC-Lavalin.
10NOTES ON DATA USED IN THIS UPDATE
Data compilation and analysis presented in this Update have been prepared by Joao Vestia, Transport
Planner, Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group.
COVID-19 Data Tomtom Congestion Index
The country data relative to confirmed number of cases, deaths, tests and vaccinations is obtained from the The Tomtom Congestion Index provides average congestion levels for each day and each week in 2020. The
Our World in Data datasets, which compiles the data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and data shown charts the relative difference of average congestion levels in 2020 from standard congestion
Control (ECDC) and is updated daily. levels in 2019. Daily and weekly differences are based on weighted averages derived from hourly data.
This dataset also includes a Government Response Stringency Index, based on 17 indicators of government The data in this note was published on 29 January 2021.
responses such as containment and closure policies, school closures and restrictions in movement, economic
policies, and health system policies such as the COVID-19 testing regime or emergency investments into Sources:
healthcare. This index is calculated by the Blavatnik School of Government. https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/,
https://github.com/ActiveConclusion/COVID19_mobility#tomtom-reports
The data in this Update was published on 30 January 2021.
Sources:
https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker
Google Community Mobility Reports
The Google Community Mobility Reports aim to provide insights into what has changed in response to policies
aimed at combating COVID-19. The reports are based on data from users who have turned on the Location
History setting, and chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places
The values charted report the difference in comparison with the baseline day, which represents a normal value
for that day of the week. The baseline day is the median value from the 5‑week period Jan 3 – Feb 6, 2020.
The data in this note was published on 26 January 2021.
Sources:
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
11WE ARE IN THIS TOGETHER – OUR EXPERTS ARE HERE TO HELP
We remain focused on COVID-19, its impacts on the transport sector and how organisations in the public and private › Accessibility planning, including digital connectivity and services;
sectors are formulating their responses. We place these responses not only in the here and now, but how they
should inform a sustainable economic recovery and meaningful long-term steps towards a reimagined future for › New transport technology, mobility solutions and service models;
people and communities across the World.
› Infrastructure design, engineering and asset management;
We use our experience to:
› Operational, resilience and business continuity planning;
› Provide bespoke diagnostics of transport infrastructure networks, services, organisations and places;
› Environmental, sustainability and decarbonisation (Net Zero);
› Use new data platforms, technologies and sources to inform new insights and understand what, how and why;
› Digital transformation;
› Develop tailored solutions that meet specific challenges, realise available opportunities and manage known
and unknown risks;
› Organisational planning, workplace strategy, manpower planning and capacity building;
› Advance long-term strategies, whilst remaining agile and prioritising short-term tactical solutions whilst
› Change management; and
remaining consistent with the ultimate vision;
› Financial, commercial and contractual planning and execution.
› Raise our level of ambition, whilst remaining cognisant of, and seeking to address, the practical constraints;
› Assign actions, roles and responsibilities to the most appropriate players, position them within the planning
and delivery cycle and enable collaboration towards shared agendas; and
Key Contacts
› Ensure that plans can be monitored and performance managed to demonstrate and produce the desired
outcomes.
To achieve these results, we deploy industry-leading advisers and teams to our clients with the following skills and
experience:
› Policy, strategy and regulation;
› Scenario analysis and planning for uncertainty;
Roger Cruickshank Jonathan Spear Johanna Staples
Acuity Lead, Senior Director, Transport Policy and Strategy Advisor Associate Director, Transport Advisory
› Transport demand (and revenue) forecasting and modelling; Transport Strategy Jonathan.spear@atkinsacuity.com Johanna.staples@atkinsacuity.com
Roger.cruickshank@atkinsacuity.com +971 52 140 3978 +971 55 312 6599
+971 55 300 3925
12Other Thought Leadership on COVID-19 and Transport
COVID-19 and Transport, White Paper I COVID-19 and Transport – Podcast
COVID-19 is unlikely to vanish as quickly SNC-Lavalin’s global transport experts
as it arrived; there may be several share their views on the COVID-19 impact
months ahead where we need to manage on the industry, and how to transition
residual infectivity as the economy, and from short term recovery to a medium-
the transport system, restarts. After to-long term transformation.
this current wave of global infection, a
second or even a third wave cannot yet Hear more
be ruled out. We will need robust, yet
practical, processes, procedures and
technologies to be ready and be able to
respond effectively.
Read more
COVID-19 and Transport, White Paper II Working on Tomorrow’s Transport, Today – Video
Do we come out of COVID-19 by falling From accessible transport to utilizing
back on old ways, abandoning new data, we are taking a technology-led
opportunities, and focusing on legacy approach to analyze and help shape
infrastructure and services? Or do the future of transport, by using our
we maintain, or better still redouble, deep expertise to help deliver better
our efforts to forge a new paradigm connectivity, increase capacity and
which propels us to a vision of a more reduce carbon
sustainable, equitable and resilient
mobility system and experience? The Watch more
answer is self-evident; the best way to
predict the future is to create it.
Read more
13About SNC-Lavalin
Founded in 1911, SNC-Lavalin is a fully integrated professional services and project management company with
offices around the world. SNC-Lavalin connects people, technology and data to help shape and deliver world-
leading concepts and projects, while offering comprehensive innovative solutions across the asset lifecycle. Our
expertise is wide-ranging — consulting & advisory, intelligent networks & cybersecurity, design & engineering,
procurement, project & construction management, operations & maintenance, decommissioning and sustaining
capital – and delivered to clients in four strategic sectors: EDPM (engineering, design and project management),
Infrastructure, Nuclear and Resources, supported by Capital.
About Atkins
Atkins (www.atkinsglobal.com) is one of the world’s most respected design, engineering and project management
consultancies, employing over 18,300 people across the UK, North America, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific
and Europe. We build long-term trusted partnerships to create a world where lives are enriched through the
implementation of our ideas. You can view Atkins’ recent projects here.
About Atkins Acuity
Acuity is the end-to-end advisory business from Atkins. Atkins Acuity combines management consulting, financing
and technical capabilities to help clients solve complex front- end problems in the built environment. We help to
successfully deliver our clients’ big ambitions for infrastructure and energy, worldwide. We use a results-driven
and engineering-led approach, to make our partnerships higher value and more rewarding. Together, our core
areas of expertise enable us to deliver seamless, results-driven advisory solutions.
People. Drive. Results.
www.snclavalin.com
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