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CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 3, January 2021 Page 1
Online Article
Museveni’s Rhetorical Belief
in Democracy and the 2021 Elections in Uganda
I
n the past few months, West- til the mid-1990s, he superintended
ern media and academia have Moses Khisa modestly progressive reforms that
placed unprecedented, and North Carolina State University, gave voice to the citizenry through
somewhat bewildering, focus on USA local level political participation
Uganda’s 2021 general elections. and robust public accountability.
The exact source of the rather in- For long spells, armed insurgency
ordinate interest remains a little public opinion and media coverage in the north of the country consti-
puzzling. The key issue at stake in the West appears to have shifted tuted a drawn-out human rights
though is the military dictator- dramatically against him. disaster, but the rest of Uganda re-
ship of Yoweri Museveni, draped turned to a sound, stable and secure
in civilian garb for 35 uninter- In the 2021 elections, many among state. Museveni projected himself
rupted years. As a routine ritual, the community of ‘pro-democracy’ as a ‘security president’ who had
Museveni purports to seek legitima- advocates and activists in Africa fundamentally transformed the
tion every five years through elec- found reason to overtly and pro- role of the armed forces from be-
tions, which are scarcely free, actively support Museveni’s main ing predatory to protective, from
fair or credible. This has been challenger for the presidency, the serving as a source of insecurity
the case since at least 2001 when popstar and Member of Parliament to guarantors of security of person
Museveni first faced a serious chal- Robert Kyagulanyi, more popular- and property.
lenge to his stay at the helm, a chal- ly known as Bobi Wine. I want to
lenge from very close quarters – an argue here that the obsession with In the main, Museveni’s demo-
insider and heretofore member of Bobi Wine is problematic as it fails cratic credentials appeared cred-
the status quo, Dr Kizza Besigye, to grasp the complex conditions ible and compelling to Ugandans
dared step forward to take on Mu- around Museveni’s stay in power and foreigners precisely because
seveni and test his rhetorical belief and the daunting dilemma of free- he had not been tested yet. West-
in democracy. ing the country from the firm grip ern political and diplomatic actors
of a ruler whose primary source of saw him as representing the ‘new
At a personal, idiosyncratic level power is the bullet not the ballot. breed of African leadership’ and as
Museveni loathes political compe- a ‘beacon of hope’ for the conti-
tition and has indignation for elec- Exposing Museveni’s nent.1 All seemed rosy and reassur-
toral rules that should apply to all democratic pretensions ing until Museveni faced a real test
actors. Because he holds an exag- of his democratic credentials as the
gerated sense of messianic mission Since he captured power as leader country returned to the conduct of
for Uganda and Africa, he feels ir- of the second successful postcolo- general elections in 1996, ten years
ritated having to subject himself to nial African guerrilla rebel group, after he came to power. At this first
the motions of electioneering. As after Hissen Habre in Chad, Mu- time of asking, he had a relatively
Museveni’s rule has become more re- seveni has repeatedly claimed he easy ride as he still enjoyed broad
pressive, characterised by mounting fought the 1981–1986 war to re- goodwill and popular appeal in
brutality against political opponents store democratic governance and much of the country, except the
and his seemingly rusted response respect for human rights. In the ini- war-afflicted northern Uganda.
to biting socioeconomic difficulties, tial years of his rule, at least up un- The tougher test lay ahead.CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 3, January 2021 Page 2
It was during the 2001 elections, amendment process in 2005 that Modern African Studies, arguing
and subsequent electoral cycles in included removal of presidential that money did not matter in the
2006, 2011 and 2016, that Kizza term limits to hand him the latitude election!5 The post-election phe-
Besigye fully exposed Museveni’s to rule for life. The only other re- nomenon in fact magnified just
pretensions and hollow promises of maining constitutional huddle, the how money had mattered in secur-
a reformer and progressive incum- 75-year age-limit, also got thrown ing Museveni’s continued stay in
bent who had earned plaudits from out of the constitution in 2017 in a power. An election that had passed
Western capitals. In earnest in 2001, manner that included violent scenes with little incident produced an ex-
Museveni resorted to state brutality on the floor of parliament when the plosive post-election atmosphere
and all manner of underhand machi- military stormed the House to ar- during which Museveni faced his
nations to beat back the surprising rest opponents of the amendment.4 first toughest challenge on the
challenge from his former personal streets and not in the bushes of reb-
physician and senior cabinet mem- Museveni’s steady slide el insurgency.
ber. From 2001 and on, state organ-
ised violence and blatant repres- Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, Excessive spending in the 2011
sion against opposition parties and Western media and at least sec- elections, a fact that may have em-
politicians became the mainstay of tions of the academia, perhaps in bellished and sanitised Museveni’s
Uganda’s electoral landscape.2 sync with diplomatic and security electoral victory but wrecked the
assessments of their respective economy, triggered runaway infla-
With inimitable prescience, Be- governments, going by the general tion and deep economic hardships
sigye had moved to drop the gaunt- grain of the time, either painted a that fuelled street protests. Wary
let and predict that after 15 years positive image or at worst main- and jittery of a possible conta-
in power, Museveni was intent on tained a largely lukewarm interest gion and cascade from North Af-
clinging on perpetually, thus it was in the deepening tenor of Musev- rica’s ‘Arab Spring’ where Zine El
time to take him head on before it eni’s authoritarian rule. In fact, the Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak
was too late. His 2001 campaign overarching commentary tended and Muammar Gaddafi had all been
theme was ‘Reform Now.’ Many to grant short thrift to opposition deposed in quick succession and hu-
among his colleagues in the ruling struggles against Museveni’s slide miliating circumstances, Museveni
National Resistance Movement into blunt authoritarianism. With swiftly summoned the full force of
(NRM), at the time vaguely re- the exception of a few media hous- the state’s coercive arsenal to beat
ferred to as the ‘Movement’ within es that traditionally report on Af- back the ‘Walk-to-Work’ protest
the spirit of so called no-party de- rica, and therefore have bureaux in movement’.
mocracy, demurred, insisting that African capitals, not many Western
Besigye was being impatient as not media outlets took any interest in The method and theme of the pro-
to let Museveni serve his second Museveni’s vicious assaults on his test movement was simple yet in-
and last constitutional term. After opponents and the gross erosion of novative and portent: it sought to
all, they reasoned, the constitution democratic institutions in his sin- assert the basic and fundamental
provided for a two-term limit and gular quest to rule for life. right to walk to work since people
Museveni had categorically stated could not afford transportation in
in his 2001 re-election manifesto On their part, Western academics the face of high fuel prices and
that he was seeking his second and often wrote about Museveni’s elec- dire financial conditions. Opposi-
last term to be able to finish the toral victories as though they were tion leader Kizza Besigye was the
task of professionalising the army proven to be credible and indisput- defacto ‘chief walker’ and the pri-
and preparing for a smooth transi- able. For example, after the 2011 mary target of state repression. In
tion to a successor.3 elections in which Museveni lit- one encounter with the police and
erally raided the national treasury military, he was pepper-sprayed to
Having served him at a very close to buy his way to remain in pow- the point of partial blindness as to
personal level, it appears that Be- er, which led to the near collapse need immediate medical evacua-
sigye had formed an accurate con- of Uganda’s economy under the tion to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.
clusion of Museveni’s intentions weight of inflation, two American-
and predispositions. True to Be- based academics wrote a fanciful From the Walk to Work protests in
sigye’s prediction, Museveni en- but hugely flawed paper, published 2011, Uganda’s political landscape
gineered a dubious constitutional in the well-respected Journal of deteriorated quite rapidly withCODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 3, January 2021 Page 3
Museveni’s regime getting ever The West’s half-hearted and often governments in Europe and North
more repressive, and political en- approving stance towards Musev- America to call out Museveni’s ex-
gagement becoming patently con- eni’s rule derived from his favour- cesses, to issue tough statements
frontational and less constructive. able standing at the Pentagon as an and take a hard stance against him.
As I have argued elsewhere,6 Ugan- invaluable ally in the war on terror, Unwittingly, some academics and
da’s ongoing political malaise is a especially countering the spread activists participated in spread-
consequence of the collapse of the of perceived Islamist threats under ing mis/disinformation originating
minimum elite consensus forged in the tutelage of Sudan’s Omar al- from Bobi Wine’s fans, in one case
the early 1990s and laid down in Bashir, and of course the situation retweeting a picture from the 2016
the 1995 constitution. The collapse in Somalia. He was also for long election to show how the vote was
of this consensus stemmed in part seen as an outstanding student of being stolen on 14th January 2021!
from Museveni’s cavalier moves neoliberalism and the Washington
to chip away at some of the cru- consensus, who undertook thor- In a particularly instructive ‘show
cial provisions of the constitution, oughgoing reforms making Ugan- of solidarity,’ they challenged their
primarily the cap on presidential da’s economy arguably the most governments and embassies in
eligibility. His singular focus on liberalised and privatised in Africa. Kampala to, literally, order Musev-
ruling for life gradually spawned eni to lift the military/police siege
a hardened political confronta- The Wine fetish on the house of Mr Wine, who was
tion, thereby making electoral effectively placed under house ar-
contests binary fights about de- Against the background of the rest on the night of the polls. This
fending him versus defeating him. West’s lukewarm and sometimes proposed nostrum, of their govern-
Every election is a referendum on approving attitude, in a dramatic ments issuing some kind of order to
his continued stay at the helm and turn and in an instant, Bobi Wine Mr Museveni to behave and leave
not so much a contest over policy became a fetish, valorised and sen- power, apparently draws from the
and programmes. sationalised in ways that betray justification that Museveni is a net
an ahistorical understanding of beneficiary of Western foreign aid
In this chequered political envi- Uganda’s political landscape, and who should be reined in by his
ronment, particularly starting in somewhat counterproductive if benefactors in the face of suppos-
the early 2000s through to 2019, antithetical to the struggle against edly helpless Ugandans. This, of
the main opposition leader, Dr Be- Museveni’s nearly four decades course, is grossly problematic on
sigye, suffered enormous personal rule. Suddenly, academics who many fronts.
pain at the hands of the police, for always downplayed the severity
long commanded by a highly parti- of Museveni’s blunt authoritarian- Needless to say, Museveni’s de-
san police chief, General Kale Kay- ism now see the regime as nothing pendence on Western aid has de-
ihura, plucked from the military to short of brutal, deserving unequiv- clined over the years even as the
lead the front for Museveni’s stay ocal denunciation and being de- repressive tenor of his rule has held
in power using the coercive ar- posed one way or the other. Within steady or even accelerated. Since
senal of the state. Besigye’s trial Western academic circles, some the early 1990s when his govern-
and tribulations, which spanned a who previously argued that Mu- ment overwhelmingly depended
whole two decades, rarely attracted seveni was genuinely popular and on donor funding, Museveni’s
the kind of Western media interest had ‘won’ elections despite allega- government bettered internal reve-
as we have seen over the past year tions of rigging have turned around nue collections but also diversified
or so. What is more, seldom did we to denounce this year’s election re- external aid dependence to include
see Western academics assiduously sult in very strong terms. Yet, there China and Japan and not just the
and aggressively speak out ‘in soli- is not much qualitative difference traditional West. At any rate, why
darity’ with those in the trenches between Museveni’s conduct this it is morally justified to use aid as
against Museveni’s brutal rule as time and previous election cycles. the basis for pressuring Museveni
they have so forcefully claimed today and not 10 years ago is an
to be doing in the current phase Quite remarkably, a flurry of advo- open question, but at a minimum
in which Bobi Wine is the singu- cates and promoters of democracy it shows something not right with
lar attraction and primary source in Africa have been hard at work the current urgency to ‘save’ Ugan-
of interest. on the streets of Twitter and Face- dans from a ruler of long standing.
book, urging their respective homeCODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 3, January 2021 Page 4
In the broader scheme of things, fuelled by media and democracy nent. The point here though is that
the aid argument sits on a decided- promoters. The forces and fuel that external agitation and pressure may
ly shaky normative and empirical can prudently take down Mr Mu- sound like a benign and welcome
foundation. First, it is faulty to as- seveni, in a manner that advances ingredient to take down a brazen
sume that aid by Western powers is the cause of genuine democracy dictator; in practice, however, it
a benevolent and selfless gesture, and freedom, must necessarily can lend succour for nationalist
free of strategic and self-serving evolve and emerge from Uganda mobilisation and jingoism precise-
interests of the benefactors. Aid and among Ugandans. The over- ly in the service of entrenching the
is not and has never been a purely sized role of external agitators, dictatorship as happened in Zimba-
charitable resource. It is true that quite hypocritical in many ways, in bwe when Robert Mugabe dug in
there are nations and governments fact might work to hurt than help deeper to hold on for so long.
(such as the Scandinavian coun- the struggle for liberation from a
tries) that disburse aid resources decayed, moribund and person- Which way Uganda
with little or no clear and apparent alised system of rule now cruising
national interests of their own, but to the fourth floor. For ‘friends’ of Africa keen to ad-
even in this category we know that vance democracy and freedom,
the aid industry has its own log- By making January’s election who want to ‘help’ the forces coun-
ics and self-reinforcing dynamics about Bobi Wine as a person, and tering a runaway authoritarian ruler
which have little to do with the of- not what is critically at stake for like Museveni, the starting point is
ficially stated bases for aid flows or Uganda and Ugandans, the West- to take in the lessons of history. Ex-
whether aid is actually making that ern media and democracy activists ternally instigated regime change
much of a long-term substantive handed Museveni a handy tool to is a hard sale as it tends to not
difference. Ironic as it may sound, smear and discredit Mr Wine, por- happen the way it is expected and
aid to Africa has grown into a busi- traying him as nothing more than often leads to perilous outcomes.
ness of sorts and a profession that an agent of foreign interests, a After 35 years in power, Museveni
operates with a powerful feedback front for the same old imperial in- has taken Uganda down a danger-
loop driven by interests and ambi- terests that seek to weaken Africa, ous path. Bringing about mean-
tions that are external to the osten- Mr Museveni repeatedly claimed. ingful change is not as simple as
sible aid beneficiaries. Mr Wine himself tended to lend chasing out an autocrat and install-
currency to Museveni’s charges by ing a new messianic figure with a
Second, the assumption that the aid openly appealing to Western audi- populist appeal. It is also wrong
leverage wielded by Western pow- ences and uncritically wallowing to construe opposition figures as
ers can be used to influence be- in the glamour of Western media angels embodying democracy and
haviour and actions of incumbent sensationalism and splendour. On deserving uncritical embrace. To
rulers runs against the unhealthy the eve of the January polls, for see Museveni as a devilish dictator
empirical picture from similar ap- example, he bemoaned the refusal and his opponents as angelic dem-
proaches in the recent past. As Jimi by the Ugandan government to ac- ocrats is a misleading dichotomy.
Adesina and co-authors7 argued credit foreign journalists and elec- Today’s ‘pro-democracy’ opposi-
in these pages, the experience and tion observers. It is difficult to see tion figures can easily turn into to-
lessons of Structural Adjustment why he felt a free and fair election morrow’s authoritarian rulers.
conditionalities should disabuse in Uganda depended on the pres-
us of faith in externally demanded ence of foreign media personnel Uganda is a deeply socially com-
political reforms because this ap- and election observers. An election plex society. The enormity of the
proach either yields only superfi- in a country like Uganda is not nec- country’s socioeconomic problems
cial results or tends to fall flat. It is essarily rigged on polling day! and crisis of its politics cannot be
also a glaring assault on the sover- overemphasised. It may well be an
eign existence of a people. Obviously, Museveni has zero easier job to overthrow Museveni
credibility and moral authority to in a popular process, but it is a her-
Resisting and defeating an en- accuse his challengers of working culean task forging a new Uganda
trenched authoritarian ruler like with and benefiting from West- of peace and prosperity. The issue
Museveni is no walk in the for- ern actors, as he in fact has been is not merely one of saving Ugan-
est and is not reducible to the fiat a leading agent of foreign interests dans from a ruthless dictator, as
of pressure from Western powers not just in Uganda but on the conti- Western democracy promoters ap-CODESRIA Bulletin Online, No. 3, January 2021 Page 5
pear bent on, it is also about un- from his own trap of power. There 3. For an account of the discussions
derstanding how a post-Museveni is a delicate and difficult negotia- in NRM in late 1990s and
Uganda can be viably pursued and tion to be navigated here. It needs Besigye’s decision to challenge
prudently implemented. Here, the thoughtfulness and perceptiveness, Museveni in 2001, see Daniel
Western journalist, the academic, not just fancy slogans and foreign Kalinaki, 2014, Kizza Besigye and
Uganda’s Unfinished Revolution,
the democracy advocate and ac- pressure. The prospects for forging
Kampala: Dominant Seven.
tivist, the diplomat and politician a post-Museveni Uganda anytime
need to pause and appreciate that soon may very well be undercut by 4. Elias Biryabarema, 2017,
‘Uganda Special Forces Accused
principled partnership with Ugan- actions of overzealous and over-
of Ejecting MPs from Parliament,’
dans might help, but old-type pa- bearing foreign actors. There is no Reuters, 29 September 2017.
ternalism won’t. The agency of magic wand of a popular figure that https://www.reuters.com/article/
Ugandans is what can make a true will easily sweep away Museveni us-uganda-politics/ugandan-
and durable difference. without the efforts of coherent, co- special-forces-accused-of-
ordinated and combined change- ejecting-mps-from-parliament-
For foreign actors who are genu- seeking forces inside the country. idUSKCN1C41RX
inely concerned and fired up for
5. Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz and Carolyn
freedom and liberation of suffering Notes Logan, 2012, ‘Museveni and
Ugandans, I propose more humil- the 2011 Ugandan Election: Did
ity and less hubris. Uganda is at 1. It was President Bill Clinton who the Money Matter? The Journal
grave political crossroads and the used the phrase ‘beacon of hope’ of Modern African Studies,
possibility of social disintegration while his Secretary of State, pp. 625-655.
is real. The country’s social fabric Madeleine Albright, talked about a
‘new breed of African leadership.’ 6. See Moses Khisa, 2019, ‘Shrinking
is fragile. The youth bulge pres- Democratic Space? Crisis of
Both referred to Museveni and his
ents a daunting task. Land conflicts Consensus and Contentious
peers Laurent Kabila in Congo,
easily portend the most important Politics in Uganda, Commonwealth
Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia, Isaias
source of social disharmony and Afwerki in Eritrea and Jerry & Comparative Politics, 57(3),
violence. The country’s democratic Rawlings in Ghana. pp. 343–362.
experiment requires a total rethink. 2. Anders Sjögren, 2018, ‘Wielding 7. Jimi O. Adesina, et. al.,
To start tackling these and other the Stick Again: The Rise and ‘Reflections on Foreign Aid and
endemic problems, the country ur- Fall and Rise of State Violence Regime Change in Ethiopia:
gently needs a candid and concert- During Presidential Elections in A Response to Cheeseman’, in
ed national conversation to turn the Uganda, In Violence in African CODESRIA Bulletin Online,
corner away from Museveni’s mis- Elections: Between Democracy No. 1, January 2021.
rule, to reimagine a new Uganda. and Big Man Politics, edited by https://codesria.org/spip.
Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs and php?article3122&lang=en
The country wants to free itself Jesper Bjarnesen, London: Zed
from Museveni’s mess, but Mu- Books, pp.47–66.
seveni too needs to be liberatedYou can also read
