Libya Weekly Security Preview - Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya - Libyan British Business Council
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Libya Weekly
Security Preview
February 21, 2021
Prepared by:
Risk Analysis Team, Libya
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
1
Table of Contents
Outlook .................................................................................................. 3
Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3
Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3
Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3
February 17 Celebrations ..................................................................................................................... 3
Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4
Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4
Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Travel .................................................................................................................................................... 5
Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5
Key Dates .............................................................................................. 5
Assessment ........................................................................................... 6
Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6
Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 6
Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 6
Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7
Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7
Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8
Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 9
Acronym List ........................................................................................ 10
GardaWorld.......................................................................................... 11
Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 11
Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 11
This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to
our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas
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2Outlook
Short Term Outlook
▪ The creation of a new government is likely to see some instability in the short term however there
are positive indicators of small, but meaningful steps towards unity. The new interim executive
authority will struggle to exert its influence, but all members have the ability to move away from
current fault lines, resulting in a fresh approach to the current dominant politics of the country. It still
faces a number of challenges as it navigates the formation of a new government and the handover
of power which could see spoilers look to delay or disrupt the process.
▪ The Sirte/Jufra frontline remains quiet and there are emerging indicators of intent to begin de-
escalating the situation. While this is positive, the frontlines will remain with both sides retaining
defensive positions. The complexities in the southern region are resulting in a more fluid situation
and it is more likely at present to see confrontations however not all of these will be driven by the
national power struggle.
▪ The risk posed by COVID-19 continues to effect Libya as well as movement in and out through
Tunisia and Turkey. The situation remains dynamic and will continue to evolve over the longer term
with localized restrictions been implemented with little to no notice. Levels of infection inside Libya
have begun to increase again and globally, there is an increased threat from new strains of the
virus which could cause further travel disruption however at present, PCR testing is helping to keep
travel corridors open.
▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remain common in
many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks.
Crime reporting has seen an increase over the past few months in all regions although this is
starting to show early signs of reducing.
Medium to Long Term Outlook
▪ The current political turmoil which has been driving a period of repositioning inside and outside
Libya since the end of the 2019/20 conflict has taken on a new dimension with the inauguration of
a new administration in the US. While the political process is seeing progress under the auspices
of the UN, gains remain fragile and progress can cause short term destabilization as the country
and its stakeholders adjust.
▪ Islamic States state-building capability remains contained in Libya, and the group has remained
mostly dormant from an operational perspective for the last couple of years. However, the ongoing
fragmentation of the country and political instability will continue to create conditions in which the
group can reconstitute some of its capability. Indicators from mid-2020 onwards suggest attempts
are underway to reconstitute capability in Tripolitania with a possible aim of increasing tensions
during 2021, a year which is expected to see significant political change.
▪ Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in
more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves
within security forces in Tripoli.
Executive Summary
February 17 Celebrations
▪ The 10th anniversary of the February 17 revolution passed off peacefully across the country with
the exception of Sabha. The southern city saw two IDF incidents, one of which killed a young child
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and wounded 29 others, and an IED find. Initial reports suggested that the first IDF incident may
have been celebratory fire, however, the follow up of another IDF attack after the death and injuries,
and the IED find suggests the incidents were targeted attacks against those celebrating the
anniversary.
3▪ In Tripoli, thousands descended on Martyrs Square on the day with no obvious COVID mitigation
measures in place. Other cities also saw gatherings as well as military parades with various
weapons and vehicles on display, some of which were captured in the last conflict with the LNA.
Political Developments
▪ The new interim authority has been busy this week meeting with key national and international
stakeholders as they construct the new Government of National Unity (GNU). Prime Minister-
designate Abdul Dbeibah has stated that he will not accept anyone in his government who cannot
work in all regions of Libya. The statement comes as the new authority sets itself apart from recent
administrations by conducting high-level meetings in the east of Libya with key individuals. Dbeibah
has until February 26 to present his new government to the HoR which then has a further 21 days
to pass a vote of confidence.
▪ Divisions within the HoR continue to hamper the ability of the parliament to be effective in its role.
Parallel meetings took place in Sabratha in the north-west and Tobruk in the east this week with
both sides trying to undermine the other and claim legitimacy. There is the potential that both sides
may try to meet in Sirte this week with a view to holding a vote of confidence for the new government
but its widely expected that the process will not be a smooth one. Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh
is also facing a renewed leadership challenge with his opponents looking to replace him with a
southern MP.
▪ The LPDF is to take over from the constitutional committee after its failure to move ahead with
agreements made at the last meeting in Hurghada, Egypt. The LPDF’s Legal Committee will meet
on February 22 in Tunis in an attempt to “complete its deliberations regarding the fundamental
constitutional proposals.”
▪ Egypt’s shifting policy towards Libya has continued this week with the arrival of a delegation to
Tripoli to begin reopening their embassy. Their arrival was swiftly followed by a visit from Minister
of the Interior, Fathi Bashagha who has been instrumental in improving relationships from the GNA
side. Days later, President Abdul Fattah El-Sisi met with Dbeibah in Cairo. Egypt has found itself at
a disadvantage following the selection of the new interim authority and is looking to reposition itself
in a more neutral stance.
▪ The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, has again called for the withdrawal
of foreign forces from Libya. He also committed to visiting Libya soon during a phone call with
Dbeibah and President-designate Mohamed Menfi.
▪ The nomination committee has begun receiving nomination papers for sovereign positions as per
the agreements from the Bouznika meetings. The nomination papers are to be submitted online
through a website that will be available until February 20.
Military Developments
▪ Senior figures from both the LNA and GNA called this week for the withdrawal of Turkish and
Russian forces respectively. The calls come as the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) reportedly
travelled to Russia to meet with Russian officials regarding the “unofficial Russia presence” in Libya
(Wagner Group).
▪ Reports indicate that around 500 Sudanese rebel group vehicles have now left Libya, via Chad.
Around 240 of them belong to Minni Minawi's Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA-MM). This
represents around two-thirds of his assessed assets deployed into Libya. The withdrawal is being
driven mainly by developments in Darfur rather than Libya.
▪ A confidential UN report has reportedly accused Erik Prince of violating a UN arms embargo on
Libya by sending weapons to the LNA. Prince also reportedly “deployed a force of foreign
mercenaries armed with attack aircraft, gunboats and cyber warfare capabilities in 2019.” The
operation reportedly cost $80 million and had plans to form a hit squad to track down and kill
selected Libyan commanders.
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
4Oil & Gas
▪ Al Waha Company confirmed on February 15 that a leak in one of its crude oil pipelines to Sidra
Port had been repaired. On February 10, technical teams were forced to stop the pumping of oil
and “completely isolate the 32-inch transmission line that connects Samah field, Qitar Station and
Al-Dhahra field as well as another line connecting Dhahra and Sidra.
▪ Bad weather affected oil exports at the start of the week with a three-day suspension. Normal
operations resumed on February 19 when Zueitina and Brega were expecting to receive tankers.
Travel
▪ Libyan Airlines resumed flights to Alexandria from Benghazi and Tripoli this week. The move comes
after the company unified its east and west branches. Three flights will operate a week with the
flight from Tripoli stopping in Benghazi before heading to Alexandria. Flights between Tripoli and
Benghazi also resumed on February 18 marking a step towards normalization of relations between
east and west.
▪ A Libyan Wings flight from Misrata to Tunis was forced to make an emergency landing on February
17 at Mitiga Airport in Tripoli due to low cabin pressure.
▪ The Algerian Government has authorized the reopening of the Debdab border crossing with Libya.
This is expected to see the exchange of goods at the border. Algiers has postponed the reopening
of the Tin al-Koum crossing point but will continue to hold consultative meetings to assess the
situation in Libya. This includes considering allowing licensed economic dealers to enter Libya “if
the security situation permits.”
Threat Matrix
Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime Kidnap
Tripolitania High-Extreme High High High High
Tripoli Extreme High High High High
Cyrenaica High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate-High
Benghazi High-Extreme Moderate-High Moderate High High
Fezzan High High-Extreme High High High
Sabha High High-Extreme High High-Extreme High
Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme
Key Dates
Date Occasion Comment
March 19, 2021 Commemoration of Victory over Gadhafi Public Holiday
March 19, 2021 Deadline for HoR to approve new list of ministers
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
April 24, 2021 Beginning of Ramadan +/- 1 day
May 01, 2021 May Day Public Holiday
5May 13 - 15, 2021 Eid al-Fitr Public Holiday
July 19, 2021 Day of Arafah Public Holiday
July 20 – 22, 2021 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday
Assessment
Political Developments
This week has seen a flurry of political activity as the new interim executive authority begins its
preparations to take over the reins of government. The new authority has given some early indicators
that they intend on doing things differently to the last attempt at a unity government, the GNA. After
meeting with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar at the end of last week, President-designate Mohamed Menfi
travelled further east and met with Speaker of the HoR, Aqilah Saleh in Qubbah. After finishing his tour
of the east, Menfi then travelled to Tripoli and met with his fellow Presidential Council (PC) members,
Musa Koni and Abdullah al-Lafi. He also met with an HoR delegation from the southern region.
In the same vein, Prime Minister-designate Abdul Dbeibah travelled to Cairo on February 18 and met
with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Straight after that meeting and hot on the heels of Menfi,
he travelled to Tobruk to meet with Saleh. He also intends to travel to the southern region where he
states the situation is deteriorating more than in the east and west. This comes as he looks to build his
new government, dubbed the Government of National Unity (GNU). His various meetings are likely
aimed at building support and gaining input for his new government with key national and international
stakeholders. He has until February 26 to present the new government to the HoR with reports
indicating that the two factions of the HoR may be looking to hold a meeting in Sirte next week to hold
a vote of confidence.
Military Developments
Focus remains on foreign fighters and their withdrawal
Senior figures from both the LNA and GNA called this week for the withdrawal of Turkish and Russian
forces respectively. The calls come as the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) reportedly travelled to
Russia to meet with Russian officials regarding the “unofficial Russia presence” in Libya (Wagner
Group). The delegation was expected to have “an answer regarding the legality of the presence of
Turkish forces in Libya and the possibility of their exit.”
Sudanese fighters withdrawing from Libya
This week reports indicated that Sudanese rebel groups have begun to withdraw assets and manpower
from Libya via Chad to Darfur. Around 500 Sudanese rebel group vehicles have now left Libya. Around
240 of them belong to Minni Minawi's Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA-MM). This represents around
two-thirds of his assessed assets deployed in Libya. Another 200 are reported to be affiliated with Tahir
Hajar’s Sudan Liberation Forces Alliance (SLFA) which account for his entire strength in Libya. The
remaining 60 are believed to belong to Al-Hadi Idris Yahya's Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional
Council (SLM-TC) and Gibril Ibrahim's Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).
Coronavirus
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
Cases have reduced for the second week in a row with 2443 cases reported compared to 3328 last
week (-885). It's unclear why cases would be reducing with no additional counter-measures being
implemented apart from a three-day partial curfew in Sabha. The country now has 12,326 active cases
and has recorded 2,114 associated deaths.
6The COVID-19 isolation centre in Sabha stopped accepting patients on February 20 as it has run out
of oxygen following a significant increase in critical cases. The city had a three-day nightly curfew last
week following a local spike in cases. This is the first indicator that part of the health service might be
struggling due to COVID.
8000
7000
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28-Mar
04-Apr
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04-Jul
11-Jul
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25-Jul
01-Aug
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05-Sep
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03-Oct
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02-Jan
09-Jan
16-Jan
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30-Jan
06-Feb
13-Feb
20-Feb
Cases
Regional Assessment
Tripolitania Region
Significant Incidents
▪ Threat Warning - Feb 14, Az Zawiyah Province, Tellil Tourist Complex: A threat warning was issued
for Sabratha, stating that IS was intending on targeting the Tellil Tourist Complex, where the HoR
is due to meet on February 15, with a VBIED.
▪ Threat Warning - Feb 14, Tripoli Province, Tripoli: Threat reporting suggested two VBIEDs were in
the capital. Security forces were reportedly acting on the information and began searching for a
Volkswagen and Chevrolet from the early hours of February 14. A suspicious bag in a parked
vehicle outside of the Central Bank was subsequently reported.
▪ CP/ Roadblock - Feb 15 23:00, Misrata Province, Dafiniyah: Reports indicate that fortifications
were being removed at Dafiniyah Checkpoint after its closure on February 13 by former Third Force
members over "unpaid wages."
▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 17 22:30, Sirte Province, Dubai Street (Sirte): Abdul Jalil Jalloul, a member
of the Criminal Investigations Department, was shot and killed allegedly by 166 Brigade (LNA). 166
Brigade was involved in another incident with fellow security forces on February 02.
▪ Arrest - Feb 18, Tripoli Province, Mitiga Airport: A photographer, Emad Mankousa, was arrested
at Mitiga by order of the Public Prosecutor as they claimed his camera and laptop belonged to the
HSC. He is currently being held at the Attorney General’s office. He was reportedly due to travel
with Prime Minister-designate Abdul Dbeibah to Cairo.
▪ Kidnap - Feb 18 09:45, Tripoli Province, Bab Ben Ghashir: Libyan singer Ramadan Salem, known
© 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary
as Maniglesias, was either kidnapped or detained by an armed group after he participated in the
February 17 celebrations.
▪ Arrest - Feb 18 12:00, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: Police arrested 87 migrants on the
beach as they were about to set sail for Europe.
7▪ Armed Attack - Feb 19 20:30, Tripoli Province, Ghut Al-Shaal: An unidentified armed gang
launched an attack against a police station in order to forcibly release a detainee. The gang, who
arrived in a Musso pick-up, targeted the police station's checkpoint allowing the detainee, from Hay
Andalous, to escape. Two policemen and one of the attackers were wounded. The gang is believed
to be friends and family of the detained man.
▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 20 14:00, Tripoli Province, Hadba Al-Mashro: A young man named Sufyan
Mohamed al-Senussi was shot four times in the neck, chest and legs by Siraj al-Musaffah, a militia
member belonging to Ghneiwa, at the Sharif roundabout. Unconfirmed reports suggest Musaffah
was intoxicated.
▪ Prisoner Escape - Feb 20 22:30, Al-Murqub Province, Majer Central Prison: Four prisoners
escaped from the Majer Central prison near Zliten resulting in a SAF exchange suggesting they
had managed to arm themselves. Two of the prisoners were from Zliten, one was from Suq al-
Khamis and one was from Msalatta.
▪ Mine Strike - Feb 20 23:30, Sirte Province, Wadi Jharif: A landmine detonated. The area is part of
the Sirte-Jufra frontline which is known to have been mined. Some demining work is ongoing along
the coastal road with a view to reopening it.
▪ SAF - Feb 20 23:50, Tripoli Province, Jarabah Street (Tripoli): SAF was reported inside the Bab
Tajura HQ on Jarabah Street.
Cyrenaica Region
Significant Incidents
▪ Troop Movements - Feb 14 00:30, Benghazi Province, Benina Airport: Members of the Al-Awaqir
tribe mobilised in the area of the Al-Qaws checkpoint near Benina Airport in response to the
issuance of an arrest warrant for a prominent Awaqir militia leader who was due to land at the
airport. As tensions mounted, 106 Brigade (LNA) deployed assets to the area.
▪ Assault - Feb 14 20:30, Derna Province, Derna: A tribal affiliated armed group attacked an engineer
Abrik Mikael Al-Faidi and his son Mikael. Both had to be taken to Benghazi Hospital after the group,
from Qubbah and Ain Mara, attacked them. They have since been released. The attack was
motivated by a noise complaint from the al-Faidi family over a neighbour's parties.
▪ Security Operation - Feb 15 1061856:00, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: Security was increased
following a security alert which saw a joint security room checkpoint established near the Baraka
Mosque Junction with a focus on stolen vehicles and vehicles operating illegally. Advise and
educational leaflets connected to COVID-19 were also handed out.
▪ Security Operation - Feb 16 17:20, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: Security forces allegedly closed
Tahrir Square to stop February 17 celebrations.
▪ Arson - Feb 18 01:30, Al-Marj Province, Uwayliyah: A home was targeted in an arson attack.
▪ Armed Attack - Feb 18 09:50, Benghazi Province, Boatni: An armed group attacked Boatni Police
Station and forcibly released a detainee.
▪ SAF - Feb 18 18:20, Benghazi Province, Al-Asheya Market: A child was hit in a suspected random
shooting.
▪ Accident - Feb 19, Al-Butnan Province, Tobruk: A Toyota Tundra carrying 18 Egyptians illegally in
Libya overturned near Tobruk. The driver and one of the migrants were killed in the accident. Those
who were injured were taken to Tobruk Medical Centre where six were taken to the orthopaedic
department, two to surgery and five to the "forensic research department." 401 Battalion (LNA)
responded to the incident.
▪ Murder/ Execution - Feb 20 14:00, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: A murder of a Libyan national
was reported in the area.
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8Fezzan Region
Significant Incidents
▪ CP/ Roadblock - Feb 15 16:15, Sabha Province, Green Mosque: An armed group was conducting
identity checks and detaining people at the Green Mosque junction.
▪ Mass Grave - Feb 16 13:30, Sabha Province, Ghadduwah: A mass grave of skeletal remains has
been found during a patrol with investigations ongoing involving the Obari Security Room, 116
Battalion of 6 Brigade (LNA), Obari CID and the Criminal Laboratories Office (South Branch) which
took DNA samples. The victims are currently believed to be possible victims of IS. The find came
during a patrol by the LNA through Obari, the Maknosa Project, Wadi Ataba and the wadis near
Ghadduwah.
▪ IDF - Feb 17 00:00, Sabha Province, Khalid Bin Walid Mosque: One or two mortar shells impacted
near the Khalid Bin Walid Mosque in Mansheya, Sabha as people celebrated the 10 th anniversary
of the revolution. A 10-year-old child was killed in the incident and a further 29 people, including
two children, were wounded. The rounds may have been celebratory fire however this remains
unconfirmed with UNSMIL stating it appeared to be "targeted." UNSMIL condemned the incident
and called for an investigation. Another incident was reported later in the day although there were
no casualties along with an IED find.
▪ IED - Feb 17 10:55, Sabha Province, Africa Hotel: Reports indicate that an IED was found near
the Africa Hotel by the Sabha Security Directorate. A military engineering team deployed to the
scene. The device was constructed from a 107mm rocket and made safe.
▪ Arrest - Feb 17 11:25, Sabha Province, Jadid Cemetery Roundabout: Armed members of the Awlad
Suleiman were conducting targeted arrests of members of the Qadhafa tribe near the Jadid
Cemetery Roundabout.
▪ Other - Feb 17 11:30, Sabha Province, Ghadduwah: An old IS location was reportedly uncovered
near a mass grave.
▪ Arrest - Feb 17 15:30, Sabha Province, Qurdah Agricultural Area: Armed members of the Awlad
Suleiman were conducting targeted arrests of members of the Qadhafa tribe resulting in SAF. This
followed similar actions around the Jadid Cemetery area earlier in the day. Local reports indicate
that the situation between the two tribes is calm for now.
▪ IDF - Feb 17 20:30, Sabha Province, Taiori: Another two mortars fell, this time in the Taiori area.
No reports of any casualties. This followed a similar incident in the early hours of February 17 near
the Khalid Bin Walid Mosque where a 10-year-old child was killed. The incidents are likely linked to
the 17 February celebrations.
▪ Accident - Feb 19, Murzuq Province, Umm Al-Aranib: At least 25 migrants were killed in a road
traffic accident near Umm al-Aranib.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a
judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions
expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence
available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy,
completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments
made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to
act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader's own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report
should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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9Acronym List
AQ - Al-Qaeda
BAM – Al Bunyan Al Marsous (Misratan-led)
BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and
RSCB associated/umbrella group)
CBL – Central Bank of Libya
CNI – Critical National Infrastructure
DACOCT - Deterrence Apparatus for Combating Organized Crime and Terrorism
DDR - Disarmament, demobilising and reintegration
DF – Direct Fire
DPF – Derna Protection Force (an amalgamation of all militias in Derna, including the MSCD)
GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya
GMMR – Great Man-made River
GNA – Government of National Accord (2016)
GNC – General National Congress (2012)
GNU – Government of National Unity (2021)
GTUC - Greater Tripoli Union Council (Tripoli militias and others, established in June 2020)
HNEC – High National Elections Commission
HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk-based)
IDF – Indirect Fire (mortars/rockets)
IDP - Internally Displaced Persons
IED - Improvised Explosive Device
IOC - International Oil Company
IS - Islamic State
LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group
LNA – Libyan National Army
LNG – Libyan National Guard
LPA – Libyan Political Agreement (2015)
LPDF - Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (2020)
LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room
MoD - Ministry of Defense
MoF - Ministry of Finance
MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education
MoI - Ministry of Interior
MoJ - Ministry of Justice
MoO - Ministry of Oil
MoT - Ministry of Transportation
MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned)
NFDK - No Further Details Known
NGO - Non-Governmental Organisation (aid/charity)
NOC – National Oil Company
NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC)
NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report
PC – Presidency Council (GNA)
PG – Presidential Guard
PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard
RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade
RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi
RTA - Road Traffic Accident
SAF - Small Arms Fire
SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al Qaeda-aligned – AAS and
RSCB associated/umbrella group)
SDF – Rada Deterrence Force/ Special Deterrence Force/ Rada
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Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck
TPF – Tripoli Protection Force (TRB, Nawasi 8 Force, Bab Tajoura Brigade and Ghneiwa umbrella
group, established in December 2018)
UXO - Unexploded Ordnance
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