Ones to watch Local elections 2018

Local elections 2018
Ones to watch

        Local
       Elections

Over the past seven years, the LGiU has provided live local elections
coverage and a results service with insights into what’s happening
on the ground and what it means for the country as a whole. Telling
the story of what’s happening in the locals and raising awareness of
these issues is something we are proud to be continuing this year.

This guide is part of our Local Elections 2018 work which includes
supporting better communications and and Out for the Count – an
awareness raising campaign dedicated to improving local democracy
with a call for open and accessible local elections data across the UK.
Join this year’s election coverage and Out for the Count Campaign
2018 by being a count correspondent: find out more here.

One hundred and fifty councils are electing councillors this May. Five
authorities are also electing mayors – and the Sheffield City Region is
electing its inaugural metro mayor.

Inevitably, the main story of the local elections on the national stage
will be London, where all 32 boroughs are holding all-out elections.
Elsewhere in the country, all the metropolitan boroughs – with the
exception of Doncaster and Rotherham, who had boundary changes
in previous years – are up for election. A number of district councils
are also holding elections – most electing by thirds, although a
handful are all out or electing half their councillors.

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch                                               1

Overview
Just over 4,000 councillors are up for election – nearly twice as many as last year,
when the counties were up. Just over half are Labour, while just under a third are
Conservative. The BNP’s last remaining seat, in Pendle, is also up. Certain areas will
also shed some light on how the Liberal Democrats and UKIP are faring – see ‘ones to
watch’ for more details.

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to watch                                                          2

In terms of council control, as you’d expect in an election season dominated by the
metropolitan and London boroughs, Labour run just under half of the councils with
elections. Of the councils in no overall control, they have a hand in the running of (again)
just under half – two more than the Conservatives.

Last year’s local elections – held shortly before the general election – saw Labour lose
nearly 200 councillors, and control of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Northumberland.

While only a third of the councillors ending their terms are Conservative, the party
could still be on shaky ground in May. Many of the Labour councils up for election
have sizeable majorities, whereas a greater number of the Conservative councils are
decidedly more volatile. The party Chairman, Brandon Lewis, has been emphasising
that this is a “difficult” point in the electoral cycle for the Conservatives.

2017 was a near-complete wipeout for UKIP: Labour and Conservative councillors took
their seats across the country. Recent by-elections have also eaten away at the number
of UKIP councillors. The 2018 elections look set to continue that trend, as local UKIP
groups fall into disarray.

The Liberal Democrats have seen modest but not disastrous results in local by-elections
since last summer, when they held on in traditional strongholds but missed out in parts
of the west country.

London
Every London borough is up for election. 2014, the last time London councils went
to the polls, saw Labour win 43% of the popular vote in London – their highest result
since 1973.

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch                                                               3

Labour currently holds 20 out of the 32 London boroughs. The Conservatives hold eight,
the Liberal Democrats one and three are in no overall control – Barnet (since March
2018), Tower Hamlets and Havering. In Tower Hamlets, the presence of Aspire and the
People’s Alliance of Tower Hamlets complicates analysis. Likewise, in Havering, no less
than three residents’ groups prevent the Conservative administration from taking overall
control. Pollsters predict that Labour is likely to do well in these elections – particularly in
inner London, where the Conservatives could well find themselves squeezed out.

                                            Current state of political control in London

Grenfell casts a long shadow over public life - not least when it comes to this year’s
elections in London. The Conservatives currently hold three quarters of the seats on
Kensington and Chelsea council. The central party seemed to be washing its hands of
the council even before the election campaign kicked off, with Sajid Javid blaming the
authority for “totally unacceptable” delays in housing those made homeless by the fire.
However, what happens in May will depend upon local manoeuvres - if local groups
seek election and split the vote, the election isn’t necessarily a foregone conclusion.

Momentum adds yet another angle to the London elections, as its membership grows
and its influence on local politics rises. However, despite accusations of a “purge” in
Haringey, only a third of the current group of Labour councillors are standing down or
have been deselected. In advance of May’s elections, Momentum have been working to
provide training and support to councillors in target areas.

Ones to watch
Barnet, where the Conservatives lost their majority of 1 in March, leaving the council in
no overall control. Large swings to Labour would threaten the Conservative majorities in
Kingston, Hillingdon and Wandsworth. Kensington is an unknown quantity: even in
2014, the Conservatives lost six seats – the final result depends on how Labour

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to watch                                                                   4

campaigns on the ground and the potential presence of any independent or residents’
groups. Keep an eye on Croydon, Hammersmith and Redbridge: polls suggest the
slim Labour majorities here are set to rise.

Metropolitan boroughs
Four authorities who’ve had boundary changes are going all out: Birmingham, Leeds,
Manchester and Newcastle. Of the rest of the metropolitan boroughs, most have a third

of their councillors up for election (with the exception of Doncaster and Rotherham –
who moved to ‘all out’ elections in 2017 and 2016 respectively, so aren’t out this year).

The Conservatives hold only two metropolitan boroughs: Solihull and Trafford. Solihull
has a single Labour councillor, with a strong Green presence in opposition to the
Conservatives; while Trafford is a more traditional two-horse race.

Twenty-seven of the metropolitan boroughs up for election are Labour – including many
solidly Labour councils, where the opposition consists of just one or two councillors.
These are unlikely to change significantly.

Ones to watch
Solihull, where a sizeable swing away from the Conservatives could knock it into no
overall control; and Trafford, Conservative since 2004 but with a history of both Labour
and no overall control. In Bradford Labour have a majority of two, and the council has
wavered back and forth between Labour and no overall control since the 1980s. There’s
a similar tale in Wirral, Sefton and Bury.

Meanwhile, in Dudley, a council that has teetered back and forth between Labour,
Conservative and no overall control, a minority Labour administration currently hold the
reins. However, nearly all of UKIP’s eight seats are up for election – UKIP’s fortunes
here could translate into a win for Labour or the Conservatives.

Sheffield has hit the headlines as it pauses its controversial tree-felling work. With
19 Labour seats up for election, the party could find that the protests damage their
performance at the polls. The ruling administration would need to lose 12 seats to lose
control of the council.

Unitary authorities
Two unitary authorities – Hull and Blackburn with Darwen – are going all out, while 15
others are out in thirds. The Conservatives hold four, five are in no overall control and
Labour control the remaining eight.

Ones to watch
Derby and Southampton have slim Labour majorities. In Peterborough a single
Conservative gain would put the council back in majority control – in Portsmouth they’d
need two extra councillors. In Swindon the Conservative majority rests on a single
councillor; in Southend, two.

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch                                                                 5

Those interested in UKIP’s prospects could keep an eye on Thurrock, where all
17 UKIP councillors resigned earlier this year to form a new independent group. UKIP
are reportedly planning on standing candidates in every ward where it formerly had
councillors.

Districts
Seven district councils are going all out; six are electing half their councillors; and 55
are out in thirds. Most of these are in the East and the South East. It’s here where the
Conservatives control most of their councils up for election.

Ones to watch
In Amber Valley, if the Conservatives lose just one of the four seats they hold that are
up for election, the council will go into no overall control. Watch Three Rivers to see
if the Liberal Democrats can keep hold of their wafer thin majority – they’re defending
eight of their 20 seats. Labour are defending small majorities in Redditch and
Cannock Chase.

In Basildon the Conservatives are the largest party, and just three councillors short
of an overall majority. With five UKIP seats up for grabs, this could be a chance for
the Conservatives to take effective control (although the council is likely to remain in
no overall control). The council has flip flopped back and forth between Labour and
Conservative control for years – although the Conservatives most recently had overall
control between 2003 and 2014, it’s currently headed up by Labour.

Mayoral
Five local authority mayoral elections are taking place this May: four London mayors
plus Watford. There’s also the inaugural metro mayor elections happening in Sheffield.

In Hackney, where they’ve had mayors since 2002, two Labour mayors have held the
position with increased majorities every year. Current mayor Philip Glanville looks set to
be re-elected.

Over in Lewisham, Steve Bullock is standing down after more than a decade as
mayor – and the only mayor Lewisham have known so far. Cabinet member for housing
Damien Egan is Labour’s candidate. Again, Bullock’s majority increased year-on-year
and it’s likely that Egan will be the new mayor.

After 23 years as a councillor, Newham’s mayor since 2002, Robin Wales, has been
deselected by the local Labour party. Rokhsana Fiaz, is this year’s candidate. Wales’
majority was down a little at the last elections in 2014, but it’s still hard to imagine that
Fiaz won’t be mayor come May.

Although the first mayoral elections in Tower Hamlets only took place in 2010, local
politics has quickly made national headlines here with voided election results and the
launching of new parties. With previous mayor Lutfur Rahman ousted from office and
barred from standing for election until 2021, incumbent John Biggs is standing again.
The 2014 by-election, held in the wake of the voided 2014 elections, was close – Rabina
Khan, supported by Lutfur Rahman, came in second. Khan is standing again.

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to watch                                                                     6

In Watford, Dorothy Thornhill is stepping down as mayor after 16 years. Her
replacement as candidate could make or break the Liberal Democrats, where Thornhill
has enjoyed a sizeable – but not huge – majority.

Finally, Sheffield City Region is set to hold its first metro mayor elections. The new
mayor will hold responsibility for Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham and Sheffield – all
council areas with strong Labour majorities (plus a sizeable Liberal Democrat contingent
in Sheffield).

LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch                                                           7

Author:
Charlotte Maddix, LGiU

LGiU is a local authority membership organisation. Our mission
is to strengthen local democracy to put citizens in control of
their own lives, communities and local services. We work with
local councils and other public services providers, along with a
wider network of public, private and third sector organisations.

LGiU and the local elections

Out for the Count is an awareness raising campaign
dedicated to improving local democracy with a call for open
and accessible local elections data across the UK.

Over the past seven years, the LGiU has provided live local
elections coverage and a results service with insights into
what’s happening on the ground and what it means for the
country as a whole. Telling the story of what’s happening in the
locals and raising awareness of these issues is something we
are proud to be continuing this year.

With the help of hundreds of Count Correspondents (volunteers
from local government and the wider community) we will
crowdsource results live from counts taking place across the
country as they come.

LGiU
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020 7554 2800
info@lgiu.org.uk
www.lgiu.org.uk

© LGiU March 2018