NZ Spotlight Sydney - NZX

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NZ Spotlight Sydney - NZX
NZ Spotlight
Sydney

28 September 2017
Contents

Welcome and introduction ……………………………………………………………..    1

Programme ………………………………………………………………………………              2

Company profiles …………………………………………………………………….....      3

 Pushpay Holdings ………...………………………………………………………         4

 Genesis Energy …………………………………………...…………………………..       5

 AFT Pharmaceuticals …………………………………………………………………        6

 Turners Automotive Group …………………………………………………………...   7

 Scott Technology ……………………………………………………………………...       8

 Pacific Edge ……………….…………………………………………………………...        9

 CricHQ …………………………………………………………………………………..             10
Welcome

Woodward Partners and NZX together welcome you to our inaugural NZ Spotlight investor day in Sydney.

Today we are pleased to present to investors a selection of NZX-listed companies from a variety of
different sectors. The companies presenting today have market caps of between NZ$180m and
NZ$2.4bn. We are also pleased to be able to welcome unlisted company CricHQ, the world’s leading
SaaS platform for cricket.

Woodward Partners and NZX are each committed to supporting and growing New Zealand’s equity
capital markets and our NZ Spotlight events provide a platform for New Zealand companies to raise their
profile and communicate their investment case to Australian investors.

About Woodward Partners

Woodward Partners is an independent research house, institutional sharebroker and corporate advisor.
Our strength is our senior team which comprises analysts, dealers and executives with many years of
markets experience.

Woodward Partners is committed to providing New Zealand-listed and unlisted companies and investors
with the highest-quality investment research across different market sectors, including the small cap and
mid cap segments of the New Zealand market.

Woodward Partners Securities is an accredited NZX Advising Firm.

Contacts:
Neville Todd                                              Simon Wilson
DDI: +64 4 974 7381                                       DDI: +64 4 974 7382
Mob: +64 21 673 030                                       Mob: +64 21 562 015
neville.todd@woodwardpartners.co.nz                       simon.wilson@woodwardpartners.co.nz

www.woodwardpartners.co.nz

About NZX

NZX operates the New Zealand capital markets, agricultural commodities and New Zealand energy
markets. It provides the trading mechanisms and infrastructure, develops products and provides the data
and information that drives trading activity.

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                               1
Conference Programme

 12.30                         Registration

 12.55                         Bloomberg & Woodward Partners introduction

 1.00 – 1.30                   Pushpay Holdings

 1.30 – 2.00                   Genesis Energy

 2.00 – 2.30                   AFT Pharmaceuticals

 2.30 – 3.00                   Turners Automotive Group

 3.00 – 3.30                   Afternoon tea

 3.30 – 4.00                   Scott Technology

 4.00 – 4.30                   Pacific Edge

 4.30 – 5.00                   CricHQ

 5.00                          Closing remarks – NZX

 5.10pm                        Conference close, wine tasting and canapes

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                               2
Company Profiles

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017   3
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR                                                    Pushpay
                                                                      NZX:PPH; ASX:PPH

Business description                                                  Keeping the faith
Pushpay provides engagement solutions that enable
meaningful connections and mobile commerce tools                      Strong growth but plenty more potential
that facilitate fast, secure non-point-of-sale payments.
Pushpay provides convenient, personalised and                         At 30 June 2017 Pushpay had 7,128 customers, almost all of which are
intuitive engagement and payment solutions to the                     US churches (97% of the customer base) which use Pushpay to engage
faith sector, not-for-profit organisations and education              with their congregations and collect donations. The company added 2,637
providers. It is growing strongly in US churches which                customers over the year to June, growth of nearly 60%, and 391 in the
form most of its customer base.                                       June quarter. Customer growth has slowed somewhat as Pushpay
                                                                      targets larger churches which have a longer sales cycle. Its US faith
NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017                                         sector penetration is only around 2%, so although growth has been very
NZX ticker                                                PPH.NZ      rapid, there is enormous further potential. Pushpay’s revenues are a
Price                                           $/share      2.47     combination of subscription fees and volume fees. Subscription fees are
Market cap                                          $m      676.7     based on the size of the customer organisation and volume fees are
Issued share capital                                 m      274.0     based on transaction volumes, and include interchange fees which are
12-month average daily trading                  000/day       123     collected by Pushpay on behalf of third parties such as Visa/MasterCard.

Share price performance                                               Capital raising to support growth
 $/share                                                  Vol m/day
                                                                      In July 2017 Pushpay raised US$25m (NZ$35m) via a private placement
3.00                                                           1.6    at NZ$1.51 per share. The new capital will be used to advance Pushpay’s
2.75                                                           1.4    targeted sales strategy, with the objective to gain a greater share of the
2.50                                                           1.2    medium and large church segments (>200 attendees), and to accelerate
                                                                      the development of new products across apps, analytics and events.
2.25                                                           1.0
                                                                      Pushpay plans a US listing within the next 3 years.
2.00                                                           0.8
1.75                                                           0.6    Breakeven target now calendar 2018

1.50                                                           0.4    Average revenue per customer was up 43% YoY in the latest quarter to
1.25                                                           0.2    US$732 per month. Annualised committed monthly revenue (ACMR) was
                                                                      US$62.6m pa in the June 2017 quarter, up by US$3.8m over the quarter
1.00                                                           0.0
                                                                      and US$35.1m YoY. Pushpay is targeting US$100m ACMR by March
    Sep 16         Dec 16       Mar 17    Jun 17
                    PPH              PPH vs NZX50                     2018 and more than doubling revenue to at least US$70m in FY18. The
                                                                      company expects to reach these targets through further development of
              3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths 2 Yrs                             its product, direct sales, its referrals strategy, and through targeting
PPH          +43.6% +28.6% -2.4% -2.4%                                customers that have existing relationships with Pushpay’s strategic
NZX50         +3.3% +10.7% +6.9% +37.7%                               channel partners and other distribution partners. Pushpay is still losing
PPH vs NZX50 +40.3% +18.0% -9.3% -40.0%                               money as it invests in growth, but it expects to reach monthly cashflow
                                                                      breakeven before the end of the 2018 calendar year (a year later than its
Largest shareholders                                                  previous target) which should generate profits from FY20.
Christopher & Peter Huljich                                24.9%
Christopher Heaslip                                        10.9%      Financial performance history & outlook estimates
Eliot Crowther                                              9.7%      31 Mar years                   FY16A         FY17A    FY18F    FY19F    FY20F
                                                                      Revenue              $m          14.8          47.9    101.0    170.0    252.0
                                                                      EBITDA               $m         -18.4         -31.6    -29.4     -3.2     39.7
                                                                      NPAT adj             $m         -20.2         -35.7    -35.4    -13.6     19.4
                                                                      EPS adj              cps         -9.0         -14.8    -14.0     -5.0      7.1
Analyst                                                               P/E adj              x          -27.4         -16.6    -17.6    -49.4     34.8
Guy Hallwright                                                        EV/EBITDA            x          -35.8         -20.8    -22.4   -206.8     16.6
+64 21 999 442                                                        DPS                  cps         n.a.          n.a.     n.a.     n.a.     n.a.
guy.hallwright@woodwardpartners.co.nz
                                                                      Forecasts: Bloomberg consensus
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                          4
ENERGY SECTOR                                                       Genesis Energy
                                                                      NZX:GNE; ASX:GNE

 Business description                                                 Yield + growth
 Genesis is a large vertically integrated electricity
 generator and retailer which was partly-privatised in                Now truly fully vertically integrated
 2014. As well as operating 1,640 MW of hydro, wind, gas
 and coal capacity it has a customer base comprising                  On joining Genesis in May 2016 CEO Marc England tabled a vision of
 505,000 electricity, gas and LPG customers making it                 “reimagining energy” across all of short, medium and long-term horizons.
 NZ's largest energy retailer. It also holds a 46.0% stake            Short-term the focus has been on refining its generation asset and
 in the Kupe gas-condensate field and long-term                       operating models with the result that $15m of cost-out has been achieved
 entitlement rights to all Kupe gas.                                  since FY16 with a further $5-8m pa expected over the next four FYs.
                                                                      Genesis’s longer-term strategy spans the full length of its supply chain
 NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017                                        however it has been its leveraging of its existing cornerstone interest in
 NZX ticker                                               GNE.NZ      the Kupe gas-condensate field that has attracted its most recent attention
 Price                                          $/share       2.40    and capital. Since 2QFY17 Genesis has completed two major Kupe-
 Market cap                                         $m     2,400.0    centric deals. The first saw Genesis acquire a further 15.0% stake in the
 Issued share capital                                 m    1,000.0    Kupe JV for $168m, taking Genesis to a 46.0% interest. The second saw
 12-month average daily trading                 000/day        663
                                                                      Genesis spend $192m to acquire the retail LPG business of Nova Energy
 Share price performance                                              and with it 28 ktpa of LPG load across 35,000 customers. The Nova deal
                                                                      serves to bridge what was previously a yawning gap in Genesis’s
 $/share                                                  Vol m/day
                                                                      operating model separating a very long upstream LPG and gas position
 2.75                                                           7
                                                                      with very short downstream LPG and gas books. While it has taken nearly
 2.50                                                           6     a decade to resolve, Genesis is now strongly placed leading into the
                                                                      2020s when each of the gas and LPG markets appear likely to tighten
 2.25                                                           5
                                                                      significantly, which should work strongly to Genesis’s advantage.
 2.00                                                           4

 1.75                                                           3     Downstream targeting energy management
 1.50                                                           2     In its downstream business, the “reimagining energy” mantra is about
 1.25                                                           1     positioning Genesis as energy managers for customers rather than
                                                                      energy suppliers to customers as households and businesses transition
 1.00                                                           0
                                                                      towards taking greater control of their energy supply and demand
     Sep 16         Dec 16        Mar 17    Jun 17
                     GNE               GNE vs NZX50
                                                                      decisions. Genesis is currently running a pilot programme (see
                                                                      https://localenergyproject.co.nz/) to gauge customer engagement with
                          3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths               2 Yrs   and reaction to micro-energy management tools and platforms.
 GNE                       -3.2% +18.3% +14.8%              +51.6%
 NZX50                    +3.3% +10.7% +6.9%                +37.7%    Clear path towards >$400m with Kupe to provide yield backbone
 GNE vs NZX50              -6.5% +7.6% +7.9%                +13.9%
                                                                      Genesis has tabled a EBITDAF target band of $400-430m by FY21, up
                                                                      from $333m in FY17. Of this earnings acquired with the Kupe and Nova
 Largest shareholders
                                                                      deals contributes $30-35m with the balance to come from growth in its
 The Crown                                                  52.0%
                                                                      core energy business. Kupe is a key point of difference and will provide
                                                                      important cash generation and longer-term dividend support.

                                                                      Financial performance history & outlook estimates
                                                                      30 Jun years                   FY16A FY17A     FY18F     FY19F     FY20F
                                                                      Revenue              $m       2,011.3 1,951.1 2,105.9   2,129.9   2,184.0
                                                                      EBITDA               $m         335.3   332.5   352.9     371.0     427.6
                                                                      NPAT adj             $m          84.8   118.7    77.3      93.1     108.0
                                                                      EPS adj              cps         18.4    11.9     7.8       9.6      11.0
Analyst                                                               P/E adj              x           13.1    20.3    30.9      25.1      21.9
John Kidd
                                                                      EV/EBITDA            x           10.9    11.0    10.3       9.8       8.5
+64 21 543 448
john.kidd@woodwardpartners.co.nz                                      DPS                  cps         16.6    16.6    17.0      17.1      18.3
                                                                      Forecasts: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg consensus
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data
NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                     5
HEALTHCARE SECTOR                                                     AFT Pharmaceuticals
                                                                      NZX:AFT; ASX:AFP

Business description                                                  It’s all about delivery
AFT Pharmaceuticals develops, markets and
distributes a broad range of pharmaceutical products,                 Maxigesic to drive growth
both proprietary and in-licensed, via over-the-counter,
prescription and hospital channels. 96% of AFT's                      Maxigesic is a paracetamol/ibuprofen painkiller at the clinically proven
FY17 sales were in Australia/NZ, but it plans to                      most effective combination, developed and patented by AFT. It has been
expand sales to 100+ countries over the next 4 years.                 launched in 8 countries with licence agreements in 112 countries and
                                                                      negotiations under way for North America & the EU. Over the next 4
                                                                      years phased launches of Maxigesic are planned in over 100 countries
NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017
                                                                      including North America as registrations are completed. The company is
NZX ticker                                                AFT.NZ
                                                                      targeting 1/3 of these in FY2018; ¼ in FY2019, ¼ in FY2020 and the rest
Price                                           $/share      2.25
Market cap                                                            in FY2021. Maxigesic sales more than tripled in FY17 to 74m tablets. In
                                                    $m      217.9
Issued share capital                                 m       96.8     Australia, following recent TGA decisions, Maxigesic can now be
12-month average daily trading                  000/day       7.6     advertised to consumers and displayed in pharmacies, and codeine
                                                                      analgesics will become prescription-only from 1 February 2018. This is a
Share price performance                                               major opportunity: Australian OTC codeine tablet sales are around 750m
$/share                                                   Vol m/day   p.a. and research suggests 45% of these will move to an OTC alternative.

3.50                                                           0.1
                                                                      FY2018 growth programme

                                                                      •   Maxigesic products - complete remaining clinical studies; further
3.00                                                                      licensing agreements in larger markets including North America and
                                                                          larger EU countries; launch Maxigesic in over 30 markets; add
                                                                          additional dose forms to the initial launches to extend sales
2.50                                                                  •   NasoSURF - complete first clinical trials and first Class IIA regulatory
                                                                          filings; undertake first licensing negotiations
                                                                      •   Pascomer – commence clinical studies and licensing negotiations;
2.00                                                           0.0    •   Build Maxigesic market share in Australia and register and launch line
    Sep 16        Dec 16        Mar 17    Jun 17                          extensions. NZ revenue growth will be relatively flat in FY2018 and
                   AFT               AFT vs NZX50
                                                                          FY2019 due to AFT ceasing the distribution of beta-blocker Metoprolol
                        3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths Dec-15                      during FY2018.
AFT                    -18.2% -19.6% -29.7% -19.5%
                                                                      Forecasts
NZX50                   +4.1% +7.9% +6.7% +6.9%
AFT vs NZX50           -22.3% -27.5% -36.4% -26.4%                    AFT is targeting break-even by FY2019 (possibly FY2018) from increased
                                                                      higher-margin sales in Australia/NZ, increased licensing income from
Largest shareholders                                                  existing and new agreements in larger markets, and increased Maxigesic
Atkinson Family Trust                                        75.4%    sales. Consensus forecasts expect +35% revenue growth in FY2018 and
Capital Royalty Partners                                     13.4%    +29% in FY2019 and for the company to be profitable from FY2019.

                                                                      Financial performance history & outlook estimates
                                                                      31 Mar years                    FY16A        FY17A    FY18F    FY19F    FY20F
                                                                      Revenue              $m           64.0         69.2     93.2    120.5    154.5
                                                                      EBITDA               $m           -8.4        -14.1     -2.0     12.5     27.9
                                                                      NPAT adj             $m          -13.3        -18.4     -4.7     10.1     19.5
                                                                      EPS adj              cps         -11.0        -19.0     -4.8     10.3     19.9
Analyst                                                               P/E adj              x           -20.5        -11.8    -46.9     21.8     11.3
Guy Hallwright                                                        EV/EBITDA            x           -26.9        -16.0   -115.0     18.0      8.1
+64 21 999 442                                                        DPS                  cps           0.0          0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
guy.hallwright@woodwardpartners.co.nz
                                                                      Forecasts: Bloomberg consensus
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                          6
SERVICES SECTOR                                                      Turners Automotive Group
                                                                      NZX:TRA; ASX:TRA

 Business description                                                 Firing on all cylinders
 Turners is an integrated automotive financial services
 group centred on auto retailing, vehicle finance and
                                                                      Growth a priority
 insurance. The group was formed in 2014 when
 Dorchester Pacific acquired Turners Auctions, and                    Growth remains a priority for Turners, and the company anticipates
 has since acquired several finance and insurance                     another year of strong growth in FY18 as it looks to build market share
 operations, Buy Right Cars and Autosure.                             and integrates recent acquisitions. A number of M&A opportunities are
                                                                      under consideration in the fragmented automotive market, and the
 NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017                                        company is also seeking further organic growth opportunities (recent
 NZX ticker                                                TRA.NZ     examples include the Cartopia online retail channel and the MTF non-
 Price                                          $/share      3.25     recourse finance partnership). Other FY18 targets include expanding the
 Market cap                                         $m      269.8     Trucks and Machinery site network, developing a bundled approach to
 Issued share capital                                m       83.0     finance and insurance, combining the finance entities into a single
 12-month average daily trading                 000/day        95
                                                                      business under the Oxford brand, and building on existing servicing and
 Share price performance                                              maintenance capability. A foreign-exempt compliance listing on the ASX
                                                                      in July 2017 will increase access to capital to support the growth
  $/share                                                 Vol m/day
                                                                      strategies.
 4.00                                                          0.4
 3.80
 3.60                                                                 FY17 result – driven by automotive retail
                                                               0.3
 3.40                                                                 Turners’ FY17 NPAT was up 13% to $17.6m; pretax profit was up 14% to
 3.20                                                                 $24.6m, slightly ahead of guidance. Recent acquisitions, growth in
 3.00                                                          0.2    automotive retail, and growth in the finance and insurance books boosted
 2.80                                                                 revenue growth to 48%, with an increasing percentage of annuity income
 2.60
                                                               0.1    from finance and insurance contracts. Most of the profit growth came from
 2.40
                                                                      automotive retail, and most of that was finance growth and the Buy Right
 2.20
                                                                      Cars (BRC) acquisition. BRC contributed $3.1m for 8 months and is
 2.00                                                          0.0
                                                                      tracking about 10% above expectations, with finance origination into the
     Sep 16        Dec 16       Mar 17    Jun 17
                    TRA              TRA vs NZX50                     Turners group picking up. The Autosure Insurance business was
                                                                      transferred to Turners at the start of this FY and is expected to contribute
              3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths 2 Yrs                             $3.5m in FY18 (after amortisation). Over $26m in MTF non-recourse
 TRA          -11.0% -6.2% +6.9% +8.3%                                loans have been written since the December 2016 launch, which will
 NZX50         +3.3% +10.7% +6.9% +37.7%                              contribute positively to FY18 earnings.
 TRA vs NZX50 -14.4% -16.9% +0.0% -29.4%

 Largest shareholders                                                 FY18 outlook positive
 The Business Bakery & interests                             14.7%    We expect Turners’ FY18 (March year) pretax profit to grow by about
 Salt Funds Mgmt                                              9.2%    30% to around $32m. This is around 10% growth on FY17 excluding the
 Bartel Holdings                                              8.1%
                                                                      BRC part-year contribution, plus a full year of BRC ($4.8-5m) and
 Harrigens Trustees Ltd                                       8.1%
                                                                      Autosure ($3.5m), and is in line with company expectations.
 Milford Funds                                                7.0%

                                                                      Financial performance history & outlook estimates
                                                                      31 Mar years                    FY15A        FY16A       FY17F    FY18F    FY19F
                                                                      Revenue              $m           90.2        171.7       234.0    302.0    325.0
                                                                      EBITDA               $m           20.2         35.1        30.8     40.2     44.7
                                                                      NPAT adj             $m           18.1         15.6        17.4     22.9     26.4
                                                                      EPS adj              cps          33.0         25.0        25.0     31.0     34.5
Analyst                                                               P/E adj              x            11.7         15.4        15.4     12.5     11.2
Guy Hallwright
                                                                      EV/EBITDA            x            13.9          8.0         9.1      7.0      6.3
+64 21 999 442
guy.hallwright@woodwardpartners.co.nz                                 DPS                  cps          10.0         13.0        14.0     16.5     18.5
                                                                      Forecasts: Woodward Partners, company outlook comments
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data
NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                             7
INDUSTRIALS SECTOR                                                   Scott Technology
                                                                      NZX:SCT

Business description                                                  Transformers
Scott Technology is an NZ-based engineering
company specialising in the design and manufacture                    Growth through acquisition and new technologies
of advanced automated production and process
machinery, particularly for the meat processing and                   Scott continues to expand operations through acquisitions as well as
mining industries globally, with these two industries                 strong organic growth underpinned by an ongoing commitment to R&D to
recently contributing more than 50% of annual sales.                  bring new products to existing markets and develop new technologies for
                                                                      new applications. Revenues from all of the company’s target industries
                                                                      are growing strongly, with last year’s largest increase coming from the
NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017
                                                                      meat processing sector (+256%). Scott’s 1H17 pretax profit for the six
NZX ticker                                                SCT.NZ
Price                                                                 months to February 2017 was $4.2m, up 50% on the prior 1H, on
                                                $/share      2.99
Market cap                                          $m      223.3     revenues up 32% (reversing last year’s margin decline which resulted
Issued share capital                                 m       74.7     from increased lower-margin contract work).
12-month average daily trading                  000/day        30
                                                                      Operational update for 1H17
Share price performance
                                                                      In 1H17 Australasian sales were up 34%, mainly through a series of
 $/share                                                  Vol m/day   repeat builds for the food and industrial automation industries, but the
3.50                                                           0.50   Australasian segment also benefited from the purchase of the BladeStop
                                                                      bandsaw safety technology in October 2016. In the Americas, RobotWorx
3.00                                                           0.40   is experiencing reduced availability of robots for refurbishment, but the
                                                                      company sees potential for BladeStop bandsaw sales in the US. Scott’s
2.50                                                           0.30   European manufacturing was expanded in 2H16 through the $0.88m
                                                                      acquisition of the assets of a German equipment supplier to the appliance
2.00                                                           0.20   industry, but development of this market will be a longer-term project.

1.50                                                           0.10   Outlook positive

                                                                      The changing global manufacturing environment is driving increasing
1.00                                                           0.00   demand for Scott’s skills, technology and equipment. Acquisitions to
    Sep 16        Dec 16        Mar 17   Jun 17           Sep 17
                                                                      further drive strategic growth are being evaluated, but will only be
                   SCT               SCT vs NZX50
                                                                      undertaken where there are strong value propositions. The company’s
                        3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths 2 Yrs                   meat processing technology is now seeing good uptake in both Australia
                                                                      and New Zealand, with strong demand to adapt the technology to other
SCT                     +7.1% +20.1% +49.2% +51%
                                                                      species, including beef and pork, which is under way. Near term growth is
NZX50                   +2.3% +8.5% +6.7% +36.9%
SCT vs NZX50            +4.9% +11.6% +42.5% +14%                      expected to come mainly from the Meat Processing and Mining sectors
                                                                      where new products are already being commercialised. In the medium
Largest shareholders                                                  term the company’s commitment to R&D in areas such as automated
JBS Australia                                                50.1%    guided vehicles and mobile robotics is expected to drive growth in the
Oakwood Securities                                            7.4%    wider Industrial Automation sector.

                                                                      Financial performance history & outlook estimates
                                                                      31 Aug years                    FY15A        FY16A    FY17F    FY18F    FY19F
                                                                      Revenue               $m          72.3        112.0    135.5    160.7    184.4
                                                                      EBITDA                $m           7.7         13.8     15.5     17.8     20.8
                                                                      NPAT adj              $m           6.2          7.5      9.7     11.4     13.4
                                                                      EPS adj               cps          9.6         14.9     12.9     15.3     18.0
                                                                      P/E adj               x           31.1         20.1     23.2     19.5     16.6
Analyst
Guy Hallwright                                                        EV/EBITDA             x           24.6         13.7     12.2     10.6      9.1
+64 21 999 442                                                        DPS                   cps          8.0          9.5      9.5      9.5     11.0
guy.hallwright@woodwardpartners.co.nz
                                                                      Forecasts: Woodward Partners
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                          8
HEALTHCARE SECTOR                                                     Pacific Edge
                                                                      NZX:PEB

Business description                                                  Stage set for a tipping point
PEB is a cancer diagnostic company with four
proprietary, molecular-based tests for the detection                  Sales momentum to arrive from transformational customers
and management of urothelial cancer. The company’s
products have been tested and validated in numerous                   An announcement in the next few months regarding the commercial
international multi-centre clinical studies. PEB                      arrangements with Kaiser Permanente (the world’s largest integrated care
operates two CLIA-certified laboratories.                             provider) will be an important catalyst for PEB’s share price. Sales
                                                                      momentum across the Veterans Association and Tricare networks should
NZX Profile as at 22 Sep 2017                                         also become established. Our expectation is for Kaiser Permanente to be
NZX ticker                                                PEB.NZ      at least a NZ$25m per annum account within three years while the VA will
Price                                           $/share      0.45     become a NZ$65m per annum account within five years.
Market cap                                          $m      179.9
Issued share capital                                 m      399.7     Research continues to validate test utility
12-month average daily trading                  000/day       190
                                                                      Three high profile research publications have appeared in the past six
Share price performance
                                                                      months profiling the clinical effectiveness of the Cxbladder tests. One
$/share                                                   Vol m/day   paper concluded Cxbladder “significantly outperformed all compared FDA
0.65                                                           2.5    approved urine-based monitoring tests, as well as cytology”. A
0.60                                                                  forthcoming paper covering the successful Kaiser study will add further
0.55                                                           2.0    weight to this evidence.
0.50                                                                  World-first departures from incumbent testing protocols
                                                               1.5
0.45
0.40                                                                  Waitemata, Canterbury and MidCentral DHB’s have set important
                                                               1.0    precedents – Waitemata will use Cxbladder Monitor to replace
0.35
                                                                      cystoscopy for all low risk patients, Canterbury will use Cxbladder Triage
0.30                                                           0.5    to replace cytology and MidCentral will use all CxBladder tests across
0.25
                                                                      their clinical pathway. All three are world-first departures from incumbent
0.20                                                           0.0    testing protocols and guidelines. Adoption by Kaiser Permanente will
    Sep 16         Dec 16       Mar 17    Jun 17                      represent another crucial step toward changing long established and
                    PEB              PEB vs NZX50
                                                                      entrenched clinical practices.
              3 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths Dec-15
                                                                      Outlook - step-change expected in earnings
PEB            -8.2% -22.4% -8.2% -8.2%
NZX50         +4.1% +7.9% +6.7% +6.9%
                                                                      We expect test adoption across Kaiser, VA and Tricare to get established
PEB vs NZX50 -12.3% -30.3% -14.8% -15.0%
                                                                      during FY18. This will set up FY19 and FY20 for a step change in
Largest shareholders                                                  earnings with revenue forecasts of $46m and $86m respectively and
                                                                      EBITDA forecasts of $10m and $39m respectively.
Harbour Asset Management                                     12.1%
Salt Funds Management                                        10.6%
Westpac Banking Corporation                                   9.1%    Financial performance history & outlook estimates
AMP Capital Investors                                         5.0%    31 Mar years                    FY16A        FY17A    FY18F    FY19F    FY20F
                                                                      Revenue              $m            6.4          9.2     22.1     45.6     86.4
                                                                      EBITDA               $m          -16.0        -14.6     -6.9      9.5     39.2
                                                                      NPAT adj             $m          -15.5        -14.9     -7.2      9.3     34.6
                                                                      EPS adj              cps          -4.2         -3.8     -1.7      2.4      8.7
                                                                      P/E adj              x           -10.7        -11.8    -26.5     18.8      5.2
Analyst                                                               EV/EBITDA            x           -10.3        -11.3    -24.0     17.4      4.2
Ian Graham                                                            DPS                  cps           0.0          0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
+64 21 460 502
ian.graham@woodwardpartners.co.nz                                     Forecasts: Woodward Partners
                                                                      Source: Woodward Partners, Bloomberg, company data

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017                                                                                                          9
SPORTSTECH                                      CricHQ
                                                Unlisted

                                                Invest in cricket’s digital revolution
                                                •   CricHQ is the world’s leading SaaS platform for cricket - the world’s
                                                    second largest sport.

                                                •   The Company’s digital platform has been developed over the past 7
                                                    years with $23m of capital invested to date.

                                                •   Cricket organisations and administrators have not kept up with
                                                    technology, which has created a global market opportunity for CricHQ.

                                                •   The Company is uniquely positioned to benefit from the technological
                                                    advancements now happening in cricket administration and fan
                                                    engagement globally.

                                                •   CricHQ is currently capturing 10% of the world’s cricket data and
                                                    content.

                                                •   The company has a large total addressable market of 214k cricket
                                                    organisations and 500m online cricket fans and players.

                                                •   The global sports analytics market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of
                                                    57% during 2017-2021*

                                                •   The increased adoption of SaaS-based sports software is identified as
                                                    one of the primary growth drivers for the global sports analytics
                                                    market.

                                                •   CricHQ’s platform success has given the company ownership of the
                                                    data, content and community within global cricket.

                                                •   The company’s strategic focus has now shifted to monetising it’s
                                                    platform success by targeting the more than 500m online cricket fans
                                                    and players globally, through platform developments, global marketing
                                                    and joint venture initiatives with strategic partners.

                                                •   CricHQ has an internationally renowned team (with more than 20
                                                    international cricketers as shareholders and Kevin Roberts as
                                                    Chairman and shareholder) with a combined social media reach of
                                                    15m cricket fans.

                                                •   CricHQ is raising $25m of new equity to accelerate its growth at a pre-
                                                    money valuation of NZ$47m.

                                                •   The pre-money valuation of $47m equates to 3.2x the Company’s
                                                    forecast revenue of $14.5m in FY19.

NZ Spotlight Investor Day | 28 September 2017
                                                                                                                            10
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