Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

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COLLECTIVE REVIEW

Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis in
Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
of Randomized Controlled Trials
John M Findlay, BMedSci, BMBS (hons), MRCS, Jihène el Kafsi, MBBS, FRCS, Clare Hammer, MBChB, MRCS,
Jeffrey Gilmour, MPhil, FRCS, Richard S Gillies, MD, FRCS, Nicholas D Maynard, MS, FRCS

Appendicitis remains the most common intra-abdominal                             recommended in the US and Europe.10-12 However, these
surgical emergency, with an annual incidence of 250,000                          guidelines, reviews, and meta-analyses were published
patients in the US, 50,000 patients in the UK, and a life-                       before a recent relevant RCT in 2015.13 Although this
time risk of 8%.1,2 The vast majority of these cases are                         did not demonstrate noninferiority of antibiotics, the sig-
managed by appendectomy, underpinned by the dogma                                nificant reduction in complications seen with antibiotics
that uncomplicated appendicitis inevitably progresses to                         has frequently been interpreted as additional evidence
abscess formation, gangrene, and perforation. However,                           that antibiotics represent a valid alternative to surgery.14,15
more routine use of imaging has improved diagnostic                              The aim of this study was to perform an up-to-date system-
accuracy and identification of the majority of patients                          atic review and meta-analysis of primary antibiotic therapy
with uncomplicated appendicitis at admission.3                                   vs surgery for the management of acute appendicitis.
   In parallel, there is increasing recognition that the path-
ogenesis and natural history of appendicitis is variable.
                                                                                 METHODS
Logically, some patients will have an episode that will
not progress or perhaps may even be self-limiting,4 and                          Literature search
antibiotics alone will sometimes suffice. Indeed, this                           A literature search was performed of the PubMed, EMBASE,
approach is necessary in remote environments5 and histor-                        and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in May
ically antibiotics have been considered the treatment of                         2016 by 2 authors (JEK and CH), independently using stan-
choice for delayed presentations with an appendix mass.6                         dardized data collection software, in accordance with the
   Consequently, a number of randomized controlled trials                        Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and
(RCTs) and attendant meta-analyses have explored the role                        Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-Analysis Of Observa-
of routine nonoperative management with antibiotics.                             tional Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines.16,17
Some have concluded that it represents an equally valid                          The following search terms were used: ([antibiotics OR
alternative to surgery for uncomplicated appendicitis,                           appendectomy OR appendicectomy OR surgery] AND
with an equivalent safety profile and possibly, fewer com-                       [trial OR randomized] AND [appendicitis OR appendix]).
plications,7,8 although this view was not supported by                           Bibliographies of retrieved articles were searched. Any
the most recent Cochrane review of 5 RCTs.9 At present,                          disagreement was resolved by a third author (JMF). Data
appendectomy remains the treatment of choice                                     were extracted and studies similarly assessed by 2 authors
                                                                                 (JMF and JEK). We contacted the corresponding authors
                                                                                 of 3 studies with questions regarding methodology and
Disclosure Information: Nothing to disclose.
                                                                                 requests for data,18-20 although none could be provided.
Disclosures outside the scope of this work: Dr Findlay has previously
received an honorarium for a lecture from Heibling Consulting and                Inclusion criteria
Research AG.
                                                                                 We included randomized and quasi-randomized prospec-
Support: Dr Findlay is supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical
Research Centre.                                                                 tive controlled trials, randomizing patients aged 16 and
                                                                                 older to either primary antibiotic therapy or appendec-
Received July 27, 2016; Revised September 13, 2016; Accepted September
13, 2016.                                                                        tomy for acute appendicitis.
From the Oxford OesophagoGastric Centre, Churchill Hospital (Findlay, el
Kafsi, Gillies, Maynard) and the Department of Emergency Surgery, John
Radcliffe Hospital (Hammer, Gilmour), Oxford University Hospitals NHS            Endpoints
Foundation Trust; and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (Fin-               Successful treatment was defined pragmatically as resolu-
dlay), Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK.                                           tion of the presenting acute episode of appendicular inflam-
Correspondence address: John M Findlay, BMedSci, BMBS (hons),
MRCS; Oxford OesophagoGastric Centre, Churchill Hospital, Oxford,                mation without recurrence: ie removal of the appendix
OX3 7LJ, UK. email: john.findlay@oncology.ox.ac.uk                               without subsequent inflammation of the stump or ileum/

ª 2016 by the American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc.                            http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2016.09.005
All rights reserved.                                                       814                                                    ISSN 1072-7515/16
Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016                            Findlay et al     Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis         815

                                                                   due to methodologic and comparison heterogeneity,
     Abbreviations and Acronyms                                    although we performed sensitivity analyses using fixed ef-
     GRADE ¼ Grading of Recommendations Assessment,                fects, and individual studies. For binary variables Mantel-
             Development, and Evaluation                           Haenszel risk ratio (RR) was used. For the 2 studies18,20
     ITT   ¼ intention to treat
                                                                   presenting standard error (SEM) rather than standard de-
     PP    ¼ per protocol
     RCT   ¼ randomized controlled trial                           viation (SD), we converted the former to the latter. One
     RR    ¼ risk ratio                                            study presented length of stay as median and range, rather
                                                                   than mean and SD13; the latter were estimated.21 Funnel
                                                                   plots were inspected visually for evidence of asymmetry.
                                                                   All analysis was performed using Review Manager v5.222
cecum, or significant improvement in clinical/biochemical
                                                                   and R v3.0.2.23
evidence of inflammation, not requiring further antibiotics
or appendectomy. This was either during the initial episode
or admission, or at 1 year. Recurrent appendicitis was             RESULTS
defined as a clinical or radiologic diagnosis. Complicated         Literature search
appendicitis was defined as intra-abdominal pus, enteric           There were 1,146 studies identified, 69 of which were
contamination, or necrotic/gangrenous appendicitis. For            retrieved for full text evaluation (Fig. 1). Seven RCTs
2 studies not stipulating the presence of pus (all categorized     were identified. One was excluded due to subsequent
as phlegmonous, gangrenous, or perforated18,19), gangrene          retraction.24
or perforation were used.
   Complications were as defined in studies. Variable pre-         Study characteristics and quality
sentation precluded meaningful synthesis of complications          Six RCTs conducted between 1992 and 2012 were
reported by all studies, so we performed pragmatic analyses        included (Table 1),13,18-20,25,26 2 with noninferiority de-
for all, minor, and major complications. Minor complica-           signs.13,25 A total of 1,724 patients were randomized to
tions included wound infections, presumed adhesional/              antibiotics (n ¼ 837) or surgery (n ¼ 887). Studies varied
wound pain, urinary catheterization at discharge, minor            considerably in their interventions, inclusion, exclusion,
anesthetic complications (eg tooth injury), and fungal             and diagnostic criteria. All reported a maximum 1-year
infections. Major complications constituted death,                 follow-up. None were blinded. Randomization was by
intra-abdominal abscess/post-intervention peritonitis,             sealed envelope,13,19 computer generation,25 date of
enterocutaneous fistula, major medical complications               birth,18 or an unclear method.20,26 One study18 allowed
(eg pneumonia, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary                  crossover after randomization, whereby clinicians or sur-
embolism, Clostridium difficile colitis), incisional hernia,       geons could alter treatment. All except 1 study19 described
wound dehiscence, or surgery for bowel obstruction.                dropouts and withdrawals.
                                                                      Overall, there were many generic areas of potential bias.
Meta-analysis                                                      These included major differences in inclusion, exclusion,
Two analyses were performed for all comparisons:                   and diagnostic criteria; differences in antibiotics and ther-
intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP). For the            apy duration; major variability in surgical approach (open
index admission, it was possible to perform a PP analysis          procedures being used selectively); follow-up methods;
that included patients crossing over after randomization           and definition and reporting of complications.
in 1 study.18 However, this could not be performed at 1
year. For ITT, all patients were included, irrespective of         Inclusion, diagnostic, and exclusion criteria
protocol violations and follow-up. For PP, only patients           Five studies included patients aged 18 and older; 1 study
completing treatment per protocol and follow-up at the             included patients 16 and older.20 Two had upper age
relevant time point were included. For 1 study,13 although         limits of 60 years13 and 50 years.19 One included only
a few patients were formally lost to follow-up, the authors        male patients.19 Two studies mandated CT diagnosis,13,25
were confident they had identified subsequent appendec-            and 3 had clinical diagnosis with or without ultrasound/
tomies. These patients were therefore included in primary          CT18 or ultrasound alone alone.26
but not secondary analyses.                                           Overall, exclusion criteria effectively amounted to
                                                                   radiologic or clinical evidence of perforation or abscess
Statistical analysis                                               formation. Four studies excluded radiologic13,25 or clinical
Heterogeneity was assessed using chi-square (p < 0.05),            suspicion of perforation or abscess.19,26 One study18 did
and quantified using I2. We used random effects models             not formally exclude such patients, but clinicians could
816             Findlay et al       Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis                                              J Am Coll Surg

             Identification   Records identified            Records identified             Records identified
                              through PubMed                through EMBASE                 through Cochrane
                                  (n =965)                       (n =431)                       (n =508)

                                                   Records after duplicates removed
                                                              (n =1,146)
             Screening

                                                           Records screened                      Records excluded
                                                              (n = 1,146)                           (n = 1,077)

                                                            Full-text articles                Full-text articles excluded,
                                                         assessed for eligibility                    with reasons
             Eligibility

                                                                (n = 69)
                                                                                                        (n=63)

                                                                                                 n=24 not assessing
                                                           Studies included in                   outcome of interest
                                                          qualitative synthesis                     n = 14 review
                                                                 (n = 6)                         n= 3 meta-analyisis
                                                                                                     n= 12 letter
                                                                                                n=8 non-randomised
             Included

                                                                                                 n=1 study proposal
                                                                                               n=1 RCT subsequently
                                                          Studies included in                         retracted
                                                         quantitative synthesis
                                                           (meta-analysis)
                                                                 (n = 6)

      Figure 1. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses flow diagram. RCT, randomized controlled trial.

alter treatments if they felt it was justified. Two also                Appendectomy
excluded possible malignancy on CT13,25; 1 excluded                     All studies except one18 included either open or laparo-
any patient with an appendix >15 mm in diameter.26                      scopic procedures, performed at the discretion of the sur-
One study13 excluded patients with a serious systemic                   geon. One did not present this information18; excluding
illness or the presence of an appendicular fecolith.                    this, open procedures accounted for 71.4% (584 of
                                                                        818). No further operative details were provided. For pa-
                                                                        tients randomized to surgery, antibiotics were limited to a
Primary antibiotic therapy
                                                                        single prophylactic dose in 3 studies13,18,25 and were not
Five studies involved a variable period of intravenous an-              stipulated by 3 studies. Three18,25,26 stipulated an unde-
tibiotics for at least 1,18,25 2,19,26 or 3 days13,20; 1 study25        fined postoperative course in the presence of complicated
used oral antibiotics in the absence of nausea or vomiting.             appendicitis; this was unclear in 2,19,20 while 1 did not use
Seven to 10 days of oral antibiotics were used thereafter.              postoperative antibiotics.13
Variable combinations of penicillins, cephalosporins, car-
bopenems, or fluoroquinolones were used, in combina-
tions with a nitroimidazole. Criteria for converting to                 Endpoints
appendectomy varied, but essentially constituted deterio-               All studies presented the number of patients randomized
ration or failure to improve within 24 to 48 hours.                     to antibiotics subsequently treated for failure or recurrent
Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016
Table 1. Studies Included
First author,
y                 Population, n, ITT (PP)              Diagnostic                    Exclusions               Antibiotic therapy                 Operation                Potential risks of bias
Salminen,13       Age 18 to 60 y; Finland       CT                            Fecolith; possible            Hospital: ertapenem IV        Open: 257; lap: 15; AB: x1    Partly incomplete follow-up;
   2015             (2009-2012); AB: 257                                        perforation; abscess;         (3 d); discharge:             preop dose  postop           laparoscopy at discretion of
                    (256); S: 273 (272)                                         possible tumor;               levofloxacin þ                                              surgeon; no postoperative
                                                                                significant systemic          metronidazole (7 d)                                         antibiotics, even in presence
                                                                                illness                                                                                   of contamination;
                                                                                                                                                                          exclusion: age > 60 y and
                                                                                                                                                                          significant systemic illness;
                                                                                                                                                                          incomplete description of
                                                                                                                                                                          some complications
Vons,25 2011      Age >18 y; France (2004-      CT                            Perforation, abscess,         Hospital: co-amoxiclav po/    Open: 41; lap: 78; AB:        Laparoscopy at discretion of
                    2007); AB: 123 (106);                                        possible tumor/              iv (1 d); discharge: co-     single preop dose            surgeon; oral antibiotics
                    S: 120 (98)                                                  appendix >15 mm              amoxiclav po (8 d total)      postop                        unless nauseated or
                                                                                                                                                                          vomiting
Hansson,18        Age >18 y; Sweden (2006-      Clinical US/CT               Nil formal; surgeons/         Hospital: cefuroxime þ        Open: not specified; lap:     Quasi-randomized; cross-over
  2009              2007); AB: 202 (102)                                        patients altered              metronidazole iv (1          not specified; AB: single     after randomization at
                    (including crossover                                        treatment as thought          d); discharge:                preop dose  postop           patient/surgeon request;
                    115); S: 167 (130)                                          appropriate                   ciprofloxacin þ                                             laparoscopy at discretion of
                    (including crossover:                                                                     metronidazole po (10                                        surgeon; incomplete and
                    219)                                                                                      d total)                                                    incompletely described
                                                                                                                                                                          follow-up and data;

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Findlay et al
                                                                                                                                                                          nonstandardized
                                                                                                                                                                          investigations
Turhan,20         Age >16 y; Turkey (2005-      Clinical  US and CT          Nil formal                    Hospital: ampicillin þ        Open 150; lap: 133; AB:       Randomization method
  2009              2006); AB: 107 (107);          (antibiotic group only)                                    gentamicin þ                  not specified                 unclear; significant disparity
                    S: 183 (183)                                                                              metronidazole iv (3 d);                                     in patients; allocation
                                                                                                              discharge: ampicillin þ                                     concealment: unclear;
                                                                                                              metronidazole po (10 d)                                     laparoscopy at discretion of

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis
                                                                                                                                                                          surgeon; drop-outs not
                                                                                                                                                                          specified; use of US/CT
                                                                                                                                                                          only in AB group, without
                                                                                                                                                                          reporting negative
                                                                                                                                                                          appendectomy rate;
                                                                                                                                                                          postoperative antibiotics
                                                                                                                                                                          unclear
Styrud,19 2006    Males age 18 to 50 y;         Clinical                      Suspected perforation; C      Hospital: cefotaxime þ        Open: 116; lap: 8; AB: not    Females excluded; incomplete
                    Sweden (1996-1999);                                         reactive protein 18 y; Sweden (1992-      Clinical þ US                 Generalized peritonitis       Hospital: cefotaxime þ        Open: 20; AB only if          No prophylactic antibiotics
   1995             1994); AB: 20 (20); S:                                                                    tinidazole iv (2 d);          perforation/spillage
                    20 (20)                                                                                   discharge: ofloxacin þ
                                                                                                              tinidazole po (8 d)
AB, antibiotics; ITT, intention-to-treat group; lap, laparoscopic; po, per os; postop, postoperative; PP, per protocol group; preop, preoperative; S, surgery; US, ultrasound scan.

                                                                                                                                                                                                             817
818            Findlay et al      Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis                                                        J Am Coll Surg

appendicitis. One18 excluded patients undergoing surgery                     3.00% to 13.0%) and 9.00% (95% CI 4.00% to
from PP analysis without histologic evidence of appendi-                     13.0%), respectively.
citis. However, we included these in the absence of a                           For patients treated successfully with antibiotics, recur-
similar mechanism for identifying false positives among                      rence within 1 year necessitating surgery (n ¼ 130) or an-
patients treated with antibiotics, and its reflection of clin-               tibiotics (n ¼ 5) occurred in 135 of 759 (ITT 17.8%
ical practice.                                                               [95% CI 15.2% to 20.7%]) and 119 of 613 (PP 19.0%
   Complications were variably reported and defined,                         [95% CI 16.5 to 22.7]). On meta-analysis, risks were
with a high risk of reporting bias. One study reported                       15.0% (95% CI 8.00% to 22.0%) and 17.0% (95% CI
every complication encountered18; 1 stipulated only                          11.0% to 24.0%), respectively.
wound infections.19 The other 4 studies13,18,20,25 reported                     Cumulatively, at 1 year, meta-analysed risks of antibi-
variable complications including intra-abdominal                             otics failure were 25.0% (95% CI 12.0% to 35.0%),
abscesses and enterocutaneous fistulae; 3 studies13,18,25                    and 29.0% (95% CI 23.0% to 34.0%; p < 0.00001;
also reported wound hernias, postoperative pain/obstruc-                     Table 2; Fig. 2). Neither study attempting to do so
tive symptoms (subjective and unqualified), with 1 study18                   demonstrated noninferiority.13,25 GRADE (Grading of
reporting more extensive minor complications. However,                       Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evalu-
it is unclear whether additional complications were seen.                    ation) levels of evidence were low (PP), and very low (ITT
One study defined wound infection.13 None stratified                         and PP with crossover [Table 3]).
complication severity.
                                                                             Risk of complicated appendicitis at surgery
Directness                                                                   One study18 presenting only data for patients crossing
In addition to introducing bias, many factors above also                     over was excluded. Overall, there were no significant dif-
limited directness, ie applicability to the population of in-                ferences in either index episode or 1-year risk of compli-
terest. These included the over-representation of open                       cated appendicitis at surgery (Table 4; eFigs. 1 and 2). For
procedures (laparoscopy representing the approach of                         the index admission, 24 of 632 (3.80%) patients treated
choice in the US and Europe,10-12 with less pain, fewer                      with antibiotics had complicated appendicitis (ITT),
complications, and shorter length of stay27,28), and varia-                  compared with 74 of 719 (10.3%) treated with surgery.
tions in inclusion, exclusion, and diagnostic criteria                       Per-protocol rates were 23 of 618 (3.72%) and 65 of
(such as major comorbidities and routine CT, which                           693 (9.38%), respectively. At 1 year, these rates were 40
may not reflect standard practice10).                                        of 632 (6.33%) and 74 of 719 (10.3%), and 36 of 619
                                                                             (5.98%) and 65 of 593 (9.38%), respectively.
                                                                                However, for patients in whom antibiotics failed,
Efficacy                                                                     complicated appendicitis was considerably more likely:
Seventy-five of 834 patients (8.99%; 95% CI 7.49 to                          PP RR 6.21 (95% CI 1.68 to 23.0; p ¼ 0.006;
11.1) randomized to antibiotics underwent appendec-                          Table 3; eFig. 3). As a proportion of patients undergoing
tomy during their initial treatment (74 of 720 [10.2%]                       surgery, 25 of 54 (46.3%; ITT) and 23 of 65 (35.4%; PP)
PP). Antibiotics were less effective than surgery: ITT                       had complicated appendicitis. At 1 year, significance did
RR 0.92 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.97; p ¼ 0.002), PP (0.91                           not persist, with recurrent episodes no more likely to be
[95% CI 0.87 to 0.96]; p ¼ 0.0002), and crossover                            complicated: 16 of 117 (13.7%; ITT), and 14 of 108
(0.90 [95% CI 0.86 to 0.94]; p < 0.00001; Table 2;                           (12.7%; PP). Again GRADE levels were low and very
Fig. 2). This constituted failure in 8.00% (95% CI                           low.

Table 2.    Successful Treatment of (Presumed) Appendicitis
Analysis                                   Effect size, RR (95% CI)      n     I2, %   Chi-square      p Value       Model       GRADE quality
Successful treatment at initial episode
  ITT                                          0.92 (0.87e0.97)          6      80       24.42         0.002        Random          Very low
  PP                                           0.91 (0.87e0.96)          6      74       19.41         0.0002       Random          Low
  PP þ crossover                               0.90 (0.86e0.94)          6      64       14.08
Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016                            Findlay et al      Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis       819

                                       Figure 2. One-year efficacy (per protocol analysis).

Risk of complications                                              different scales. Salminen and coworkers13 reported
One study did not present sufficient data to assess minor          more pain at discharge and at 1 week with surgery. Eriks-
and major complications individually.19 Another did not            son and colleagues29 also found significantly lower visual
provide sufficient data to perform PP meta-analysis.18             analogue scale scores at up to 10 days, associated with
Overall, there were no differences in complications at 1           less morphine consumption.
year (Table 4; eFig. 4). On sensitivity analysis using fixed
effects, antibiotics were associated with fewer complica-          Inflammatory response
tions, although random effects were mandated by severe             Eriksson and colleagues29 reported a significant reduction
study heterogeneity (I2 >76%), and significance was                in white cell count for up to 10 days with antibiotics,
reliant on considerable rates of undefined adhesional/             although C reactive protein levels were not different. A
obstructive symptoms and wound infections after surgery            lower temperature was also found on days 1 and 2.
in 1 study.13 Similarly, there were no differences in minor
(eFig. 5) or major complications (eFig. 6; Table 4). The           Incidental tumors
GRADE recommendations were of very low quality,                    In 5 of 843 (0.59%) patients undergoing surgery, for
due to risks of bias and directness discussed earlier, plus        whom this outcome was reported, incidental tumors
a lack of definitions of complications and possible selec-         were identified: 3 malignancies requiring right hemi-
tive reporting.                                                    colectomy, 3 neuroendocrine tumors, and 1 adenoma
                                                                   with dysplasia.
Length of stay
Antibiotics were associated with a longer length of stay on        Cost of treatment
PP analysis: mean difference 0.48 days (95% CI 0.10 to             Two studies reported costs of treatment, although for the
0.85 days; n ¼ 4 studies; p ¼ 0.01; Table 5; eFig. 7),             primary episode only. Hansson and associates18 reported
but significance was dependent on 1 low quality study20            significantly lower costs with antibiotics vs surgery (17.7%
(GRADE recommendation very low).                                   reduction on ITT; 51.2% on a PP plus cross-over basis).
                                                                   No difference was reported by Turhan and coauthors.20
Length of sick leave
Antibiotics were associated with a shorter sick leave on ITT
and PP plus crossover analyses (mean difference -2.13 days         DISCUSSION
(95% CI -3.85 to -0.41); n ¼ 4 studies; p ¼ 0.020), but            There continues to be great interest in nonoperative man-
not on PP analysis (n ¼ 2 studies; p ¼ 0.070; GRADE                agement of appendicitis, particularly because 1 recent
recommendation very low; Table 5; eFig. 8).                        meta-analysis7 and subsequent RCT13 concluded antibi-
                                                                   otics to be as safe asdif not safer thandsurgery. In this
Post-intervention pain                                             systematic review and meta-analysis of 6 RCTs, we found
Vons and colleagues25 found no differences in the dura-            antibiotics to successfully treat the initial episode of un-
tion of pain (visual analogue scale  4), unlike Hansson           complicated acute appendicitis in 91% of patients. These
and associates,18 who reported longer duration with sur-           patients had a marginally longer length of hospital stay
gery. Meta-analysis was not possible. Two studies assessed         (although heavily influenced by 1 low quality study20),
the visual analogue scale at variable time points, using           but a quicker return to work and less pain. However,
820
Table 3. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Analysis
Analysis                            Population                   Risk of bias                 Directness            Consistency       Precision       Publication bias   Overall quality

                                                                                                                                                                                           Findlay et al
Successful treatment
  ITT                        6 studies; 1,724 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k
  PP                         6 studies; 1,546 patients    Moderate; serious              Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Low
                                (1,440 at 1 y)              limitationsy,z,k
  PP þ crossover             6 studies; 1,648 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitationsx,k,{   No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k

                                                                                                                                                                                             Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis
Complicated appendicitis
  ITT                        6 studies; 1,641 patients    High; serious                  Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitationsy,z,k **
  PP                         6 studies; 1,546 patients    Moderate; serious              Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Low
                                (1,440 at 1 y)              limitationsy,z,k,**
  PP þ crossover             6 studies; 1,648 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitationsx,k     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k,**
Complications
  Overall
   ITT                       6 studies; 1,724 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitationsx,{,#   No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k,yy
   PP                        4 studies; 1,229 patients    High; serious limitations#     Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
  Minor and major
    complications
   ITT                       5 studies; 1,468 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitations{,#     No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k,yy,zz
     PP                      4 studies; 977 patients      High; serious                  Serious limitation{,#      No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k,yy
  Length of stay and sick
     leave
    ITT                      6 studies; 1,724 patients    High; very serious             Serious limitationsx,{,#   No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k
     PP                      4 studies; 768 patients      High; very serious             Serious limitationsx,{,#   No limitations   No limitations    None detected        Very low
                                                            limitations*,y,z,x,k
*Randomization by date of birth.18
y
 Unclear randomization.20
z
 Variable/incomplete follow-up.13,18
x
 High protocol violations/cross-over/withdrawal rate.18e¼different diagnostic criteria between arms.20
k
  Variable diagnostic inclusion criteria.
{
  Variable antibiotic therapy.
#
  Variable definitions of complicated appendicitis.

                                                                                                                                                                                             J Am Coll Surg
**Undefined complications.
yy
  Possible selective reporting of complications.
zz
  Likely underlying differences in discharge criteria.
Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016                                  Findlay et al         Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis             821

Table 4.    Risk of Complicated Appendicitis at Operation
Analysis                            Risk ratio (95% CI)             n   I2      Chi-square      p Value           Model        GRADE quality
Cohort risk
  Complicated
     appendicitis at
     surgery: initial
     episode
     ITT                  0.44 (0.13e1.42); 0.38 (0.24e0.60) 5* 75                15.99      0.170;
822           Findlay et al       Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis                                                      J Am Coll Surg

Table 5.    Risk of Complications at 1 Year, Length of Stay, and Sick Leave
Analysis                              Risk ratio (95% CI)               n     I2   Chi-square       p Value            Model         GRADE
Cohort risk, all
  complications (major
  and minor)
  ITT                    0.53 (0.21e1.33); 0.51 (0.37e0.70)            6 80          24.45      0.170;
Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016                           Findlay et al      Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis               823

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CONCLUSIONS                                                           complicated acute appendicitis: meta-analysis of randomised
We found that overall, nonoperative management of                     controlled trials. BMJ 2012;344:e2156.
                                                                   8. Rocha LL, Rossi FM, Pessoa CM, et al. Antibiotics alone
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quicker return to work, but would have missed occult              10. Ireland AoSoGBa. Commissioning Guide: Emergency General
tumors in a small number of patients. We found no                     Surgery (Acute Abdominal Pain). London: Royal College of
convincing evidence of a reduction in complications.                  Surgeons of England; 2014.
Selective primary antibiotic therapy can be discussed             11. Surgeons SoAGaE. Guidelines for Laparoscopic Appendec-
with patients on this basis, although with the caveat that            tomy. Los Angeles: Society of American Gastrointestinal and
                                                                      Endoscopic Surgeons; 2009.
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from a poor evidence base overall, with numerous areas of             abdominal emergencies: evidence-based guidelines of the Eu-
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treatment of choice overall for appendicitis, and has yet             2006;20:14e29.
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RCTs should, in addition, focus on standardized outcomes              citis: The APPAC randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2015;313:
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Author Contributions                                              15. Livingston E, Vons C. Treating appendicitis without surgery.
                                                                      JAMA 2015;313:2327e2328.
Study conception and design: Findlay, Hammer                      16. Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, et al. Preferred reporting items
Acquisition of data: Findlay, Hammer, El Kafsi                        for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA state-
Analysis and interpretation of data: Findlay, Hammer, El              ment. BMJ 2009;339:b2535.
  Kafsi, Gilmour, Gillies, Maynard                                17. Stroup DF, Berlin JA, Morton SC, et al. Meta-analysis of
                                                                      observational studies in epidemiology: a proposal for report-
Drafting of manuscript: Findlay, Hammer, El Kafsi,                    ing. Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology
  Gilmour, Gillies, Maynard                                           (MOOSE) group. JAMA 2000;283:2008e2012.
Critical revision: Findlay, Hammer, El Kafsi, Gilmour,            18. Hansson J, Korner U, Khorram-Manesh A, et al. Randomized
  Gillies, Maynard                                                    clinical trial of antibiotic therapy versus appendicectomy as
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      Br J Surg 2009;96:473e481.                                             acid versus appendicectomy for treatment of acute uncompli-
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      ative and non operative management of acute appendicitis.          27. Sauerland S, Jaschinski T, Neugebauer EA. Laparoscopic
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      and/or interquartile range. BMC Medical Research Methodol-             Endosc 2011;25:1199e1208.
      ogy 2014;14:135.                                                   29. Eriksson S, Josephson T, Styrud J. A high degree of accuracy is
22.   Review Manager (program). 5.3 version. Copenhagen: The                 possible in the diagnosis of appendicitis. Laboratory tests,
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23.   R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical             value. Lakartidningen 1999;96:3058e3061.
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Vol. 223, No. 6, December 2016                           Findlay et al      Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis          824.e1

APPENDIX

                         eFigure 1. Index admission risk of complicated appendicitis (per protocol analysis).

                             eFigure 2. Two-year risk of complicated appendicitis (per protocol analysis).

             eFigure 3. Index admission risk of complicated appendicitis for patients operated on (per protocol analysis).

                                      eFigure 4. One-year complications (per protocol analysis).
824.e2   Findlay et al      Nonoperative Management of Appendicitis                                 J Am Coll Surg

                         eFigure 5. One-year risk of minor complications (per protocol analysis).

                         eFigure 6. One-year risk of major complications (per protocol analysis).

                                    eFigure 7. Length of stay (per protocol analysis).

                                 eFigure 8. Length of sick leave (per protocol analysis).
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