NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation

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NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
Vol. 27 No. 8 October 2020
                                                              orientaviation.com

                                              NO
                                         BACKING
                                           DOWN
                                                   Industry steadfast in
                                               commitment to 50% cut
                                                 in emissions by 2050

SIA pilots volunteer   Cargo’s biggest challenge:        Premium start-up
deeper pay cuts to     distributing anti-virus           taps Taiwan’s taste
save jobs              vaccine worldwide                 for grander travel
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
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NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
CONTENTS                                                                                        Volume 27, Issue 8

                                            MAIN STORY
                                       14

ORIENT AVIATION MEDIA GROUP
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Editorial (852) 2865 1013
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                                                                                                                   BACKING
                                                                                                                     DOWN
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief
Christine McGee
E-mail: christine@orientaviation.com

Associate Editor &
Chief Correspondent
                                                                                                               Industry steadfast in
Tom Ballantyne                                                                                              commitment to 50% cut
Tel: (612) 9638 6895                                                                                           in emissions by 2050
Fax: (612) 9684 2776
E-mail: tomball@ozemail.com.au

North Asia Correspondent
Geoffrey Tudor                              COMMENT                                              11	Aircraft lease rollovers grinding to halt in
Tel: (813) 3373 8368
                                       5    We hear you on climate change says industry              paralysed market
E-mail: tudorgeoffrey47@gmail.com
                                                                                                 12	Vietnam and Indonesia: Southeast Asia’s next
Photographers                               ADDENDUM                                                 aviation powerhouses
Rob Finlayson, Graham Uden,            6	Youthful full-service Starlux tapping Taiwan’s         13	Vietnam’s privately owned full-service Bamboo
Ryan Peters                                 desire for grand flying                                  Airways adds Embraer jets to its fleet
Chief Designer
Chan Ping Kwan

Printing
Printing Station(2008)

ADMINISTRATION

General Manager
Shirley Ho
                                       6	AirAsia Group to cash in big from expected sale
E-mail: shirley@orientaviation.com
                                            of 49% AirAsia India holding                             INDUSTRY ADDENDUM
                                       7	Cathay Pacific Group adopts clean sheet                18	STELIA Aerospace unveils single aisle business
ADVERTISING                                 approach to post COVID-19 structure                      class seat
                                       7    Every penny counts
Asia-Pacific, Europe & Middle East
Defne Alpay
Tel: +44 7712 829859                        NEWS BACKGROUNDERS
E-mail: defne@orientaviation.com       8	Indian aviation falling short in nurturing local
                                            leadership talent
The Americas / Canada
                                       10	Distributing COVID-19 vaccine air cargo’s
Barnes Media Associates
                                            “greatest challenge” says IATA
Ray Barnes
Tel: +1 434 770 4108
Fax: +1 434 927 5101
E-mail: barnesrv@gmail.com
       ray@orientaviation.com                                                                    18	AMECO to be China’s first Pratt & Whitney
                                                                                                     EngineWise GTF engine MRO provider
                                                                                                 18	India’s Air Works wins Marketing Campaign of
Download our 2020 media planner at:                                                                  2020 at MRO Asia-Pacific
orientaviation.com/advertising
                                                                                                 18	Jennifer Cato announced as Travelport’s new
Follow us on Twitter @orientaviation   11	SIA pilots offer deeper salary cuts to save jobs of       chief marketing officer and a member of the
                                            cockpit colleagues                                       company’s Senior Leadership Team

                                                                                                          OCTOBER 2020 /       ORIENT AVIATION      / 3
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
COMMENT

       We hear you on emissions, industry says
       Aviation’s contribution to global warming has long been          warned last month, ultimately the climate crisis will “dwarf”
       subject to controversy with airlines a primary target of         the impact of the pandemic. There may be a horrendous
       environmentalists. This situation has persisted despite          number of coronavirus fatalities, frustrating lockdowns
       the fact aviation is the only global industry with ambitious     and international border closures, but people increasingly
       targets for reducing emissions and achieving long-term           are worried about the effects of global warming even in
       sustainability.                                                  pandemic times.
            COVID-19’s ruinous financial impact on airline                   A Globescan poll recently conducted across 27 countries
       operations, bringing international flying in particular to a     showed 90% of people regarded climate change as a very
       virtual standstill, presents a good reason for carriers to put   serious or somewhat serious problem and that these beliefs
       their environmental obligations aside as they struggle to        had strengthened in the last few years.
       survive. But this has not happened.                                   There is absolutely no doubt there is an increase in
            The Air Transport Action Group’s (ATAG) 2020 Global         extreme weather events and temperature changes on every
       Sustainable Aviation Forum - Green Recovery, an online           continent in the world. This situation alone is sufficient reason
       conference held at the turn of the month, was proof of           for airlines and the industry in general to maintain their focus
       aviation’s commitment to emissions reductions. The summit        on working to reduce the impact of emissions from aviation.
       brought together leaders from all sectors of aviation. They           Scores of thousands of jobs are disappearing at
       discussed critical environmental issues related to the           airlines and across the spectrum of their suppliers, but
       sustainability of the industry and its green recovery post the   when the pandemic passes and growth returns to some
       pandemic.                                                        form of predictability, whether that will be in 2024, as the
            Airlines, aircraft and engine manufacturers, airports       International Air Transport Association is forecasting, or
       and suppliers are recommitting to their sustainability goals     beyond, the challenge of mitigating climate damage from
       despite the immense pressure of surviving the COVID-19           aviation will not have gone away. In fact, it will have become
       crisis.                                                          more important as aviation’s target of a 50% reduction in
            Present times may be bad, but as Britain’s Prince Charles   emissions, against 2005 levels, draws ever closer. ■

                                                                                                           TOM BALLANTYNE
                                                                                          Associate editor and chief correspondent
                                                                                                       Orient Aviation Media Group

    A trusted source of Asia-Pacific commercial aviation news and analysis

ORIENT AVIATION                                                                             ORIENT AVIATION CHINA

                                                                                                  OCTOBER 2020 /       ORIENT AVIATION      / 5
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
ADDENDUM                               AIRLINES AIRPORTS PEOPLE

Starlux Airlines tapping Taiwan’s desire for grand flying
By Tomasz Sniedziewski in Taiwan                                                 conditions, Starlux remains             billion. Its target is NT$30 billion,
                                                                                 positive about its outlook. In          said airline spokesman, Nieh Kuo-
When Starlux Airlines, Taiwan’s        Taipei to Penang, Malaysia and Da         September it announced the              wei, who declined to offer more
newest carrier, launched flights on    Nang were put on indefinite hold          leasing of eight A330-900neo,           details about the airline’s strategy.
January 23 this year and thereby       in March.                                 making it the first Taiwanese           The massage of the message is
establishing a third force in the           By last month, the carrier’s         carrier to fly the type. Deliveries     Starlux’s funding is solid.
skies of Taiwan, its first challenge   website said routes to Penang and         will start from the fourth quarter of         Unlike its rivals in Taiwan,
was battling the hardship of the       Macau were being operated but             next year.                              Starlux has not entered the
COVID-19 pandemic and not,             Taipei-Cebu was canceled until the              Starlux’s order book is now 10    domestic or cargo sectors. It is
as expected, wooing skeptical          end of March 2021.                        A350-900s, nine A350-1000s and          using the hiatus created by the
customers.                                  In the first half of 2020, Starlux   a commitment to three additional        pandemic to reinforce its brand,
     Of the three initial Starlux      lost NT$1.31 billion (US$44.8             A321neos over its previous order        which has established very strong
destinations out of Taipei, the        million), only NT$1 million or            of 10 of the type. Following the        recognition in Taiwan.
carrier had to suspend its service     US$35,000 less than China                 recent signings, Starlux will have            When the airline decided
to the Special Administrative          Airlines. To June 30, the full-           39 aircraft by 2024.                    to participate in pseudo trips
Region of Macau less than two          service carrier had accumulated                 Starlux said the A350 will join   abroad – flights to nowhere – one
weeks after the inaugural cross        losses of NT$2.81 billion.                its fleet at the beginning of 2022,     flight sold out in just 30 seconds,
straits flight. In quick succession,        Despite the adverse market           which will be slightly later than       according to media reports.
                                                                                 originally planned, and that the              Top of the class positioning
                                                                                 planes will be equipped with first      convinced Samsung to partner
                                                                                 class, a decision going against the     with Starlux in the launch of its
                                                                                 trend at many Asia-Pacific carriers.    latest flagship smart phone in
                                                                                 Longer term, it has the U.S. in its     Taiwan.
                                                                                 sights for its long-haul fleet.               “Why shouldn’t we be able to
                                                                                       The increase in scale of its      hold out?” asked Starlux Airlines
                                                                                 operations will put Starlux on par      chairman, Chang Kuo-wei,
                                                                                 with funds hungry China Airlines        in a profile in the widely read
                                                                                 and EVA Air. From early 2021,           CommonWealth magazine. The
                                                                                 Starlux will continue with building     positive buzz around the brand
                                                                                 on its current capital of NT$8.36       seems to fuel his optimism. ■

AirAsia Group to score big from AirAsia India exit
By Anjuli Bhargava                     Malaysian LCC group invested                   Tata was sold on the idea.         management style of the Malaysia
                                       $14 million-$15 million to launch         Citing another AirAsia joint            headquartered LCC group.
AirAsia Group co-founder, Tony         the carrier, along with partner,          success, he painted a picture of             “The blame for the venture
Fernandes, is jockeying bids           Tata, seven years ago.                    instant prosperity when seeking         going awry lies far more with
between joint venture AirAsia                At press time, it was reported      board approval for the deal.            Fernandes and Co who tried
India (AAI) majority partner, the      Tata had first right of refusal                Until the news broke that          and failed to micro-manage
Tata Group, and fund investors         to decline to buy the AAB                 Fernandes had an offer of $54           the company from Malaysia,” a
as he negotiates the sale of his       shareholding in the LCC. If it            million from the offshore fund,         source told this reporter.
company’s share of the LCC,            declines, the foreign fund will be        he was expected to sell his                  He added Tata was “left
India’s Business Standard has          the LCC’s replacement investor,           holding in AAI to Tata, which took      holding the can” and was in the
reported.                              the Business Standard said.               management control of the group         unenviable position “of putting an
     Malaysia’s AirAsia Berhad               In 2012-2013, master                in November last year.                  unruly house in order”. Whether
(AAB) owns 49% of AAI and it           salesman Tony Fernandes sold a                 Tata sources have assessed         these are Tata’s tactics to lower
has been written the company           billion dollar dream to Tata Group        the current valuation of the 49%        the final price to be paid for the
has been offered US$54 million         chairman, Ratan Tata. Setting up          Fernandes holds in the LCC at           exit of Fernandes is anybody’s
by a private fund for acquisition      a joint venture LCC in India, he          beyond US$50 million.                   guess, but more than one source
of its minority holding. The offer     told the leader of India’s most                In India’s difficult political     has told Orient Aviation this
includes the potential suitor’s        enduring conglomerate, would              and economic environment,               marriage is headed for divorce,
willingness to take on short-term      bring both of them new riches             Fernandes has attracted some            a situation made clear by the
expensive loans from banks and         with its asset light model in such a      antipathy in regulatory and             latest offer for AAB’s holding in
Tata Capital. It is believed the       huge, potentially, airline market.        industry circles because of the         Bangalore-headquartered AAI. ■

6 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
Cathay Pacific Group adopts clean sheet strategy for shaping new structure
At press time, with pilot union                                             an interim loss of HK$9.9 billion       was announced, Tang told media
leaders metaphorically banging                                              (US$1.28 billion), the biggest in its   the airline group had approached
on senior management’s door                                                 history and a result of COVID-19,       the government for assistance.
demanding a place at the airline                                            Cathay Pacific Group chairman,               The prestigious airline
group’s restructuring table,                                                Patrick Healy, said.                    company is not alone among
the lead Hong Kong airline                                                        The airline group had             top tier carriers in the region
group continued it’s softly,                                                undertaken an earlier three-            being forced to make redundant
softly campaign of managing                                                 year transformation, advised            thousands of employees due to
the public’s expectations of                                                by the McKinsey management              the capacity rout brought on by
inevitable job losses from the       present the future size and shape      consultancy. It reduced the             the pandemic.
Hong Kong icon’s root and branch     of the company to the board in         airline’s home city headcount by             In September Singapore
restructuring.                       the current quarter,” Hazelton         600 and preceded lay-offs at its        Airlines Group CEO, Goh Choon
     In an early October note        wrote to HKAOA members in a            outports.                               Phong, announced 4,300 jobs
to members of the Hong Kong          memo circulated widely at the                The Cathay group employs          had to go at the flag carrier. He
Aircrew Officers Association,        airline group.                         more than 20,000 staff worldwide.       said 1,900 jobs had disappeared
chairman Tad Hazelton said                 In the meantime, the group’s     Passengers of the company’s             through natural attrition, vacant
Cathay Pacific’s director of         CEO, Augustus Tang, told Hong          airlines are running at about a         jobs not filled and voluntary
flight operations had told him       Kong’s South China Morning             1,000 a day. Earlier this year, the     retirements. These staff reductions
there was no firm date for           Post that smaller aircraft could       group was a recipient, along with       were not enough to avoid the
any announcement about the           be in play in its future fleet and     most major companies in Hong            elimination of another 2,400
restructuring of the company         that a review of the size of its       Kong, of government backed              positions at the group, he said.
“as details were continually         business class offering was part of    salary support and a package of         (See page 10. SIA pilots offer
changing”.                           restructuring discussions.             loans that it must be repaid in five    deeper salary cuts to save
     “Management still aims to             In August the group reported     years. At the time the relief deal      cockpit jobs) ■

Every penny counts
Some clever clogs at Qantas did      were offered for sale online. Fully
their bit for the environment and    kitted out with F&B and offering
the coffers of the group when        the options of amenity kits,
they came up with the idea of        Qantas biz class PJs and a throw
selling off the galley carts of      produced exclusively for Qantas,
the airline’s nostalgia laden 747    half bar carts were advertised at
fleet. With the news the beloved     $691 or 169,000 Qantas Points
aircraft of millions of passengers   and full size carts were $1045.
was destined for six feet under      Overwhelmed by the response,
in the airline cemeteries of the     all the carts sold in two hours.
world or be broken up for parts,           Airlines across the region
1,000 of the fleet’s galley carts    experiencing similar difficulties in
                                     making money as the Australian
                                     headquartered airline are proving      piloting an A380, a 777-300ER,          of experiences that includes
                                     to be just as innovative when it       B747-400 or B737-400 in the             Restaurant A380 @Changi, a
                                     comes to earning cash. Several         comfort of a simulator suite.           dining experience with SIA’s
                                     airlines are operating “flights        Prices start at $381 for two            award winning service inside
                                     to nowhere” to keep some of            people for a 30-minute session.         an SIA A380. In November, an
                                     their pilots busy and to earn          The Bangkok-based carrier also          exclusive behind-the-scenes
                                     money, while an enterprising           has opened a restaurant at its          tour of SIA training facilities will
                                     few are putting some of their          headquarters in the city where          be on offer, where children can
                                     on-ground assets to financial use.     diners can eat in a space that          dress up and role play as cabin
                                     Thai Airways (THAI) is offering        replicates an airplane cabin.           attendants. Adults can choose
                                     a “THAI Simulator Experience”               Singapore Airlines also            to operate a full flight simulator,
                                     for customers to “fly” an aircraft     is thinking outside the box.            sample some of the carrier’s
                                     in their flight simulators, which      It has launched the Discover            premium in-flight wine labels and
                                     includes the experience of             Your Singapore Airlines suite           attend a grooming workshop. ■

                                                                                                         OCTOBER 2020 /       ORIENT AVIATION       / 7
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
NEWS              BACKGROUNDER

Indian aviation falls
                                                                                                                  its start-up days in 2013-2014.
                                                                                                                  Lumba even made a trip to
                                                                                                                  Kuala Lumpur, but declined an

short in nurturing local
                                                                                                                  offer from the Malaysian LCC.
                                                                                                                  More recently, despite being
                                                                                                                  past retirement age, IndiGo has

leadership talent
                                                                                                                  brought him back to head its
                                                                                                                  ATR and UDAN operations, an
                                                                                                                  appointment jeopardised by
                                                                                                                  India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation’s
                                                                                                                  (MOCA interference. Lumba had
Tiny CEO cabal ride merry-go-round at the top of India’s airlines.                                                a long career at Indian Airlines
                                                                                                                  then set up flight operations for
                                                                                                                  IndiGo and was a member of the
By Anjuli Bhargava                                                                                                LCC’s start-up team.
                                                                                                                       More recently, when Jet
                                                                                                                  Airways pulled downed its
                                                                                                                  shutters in 2019, the airline’s
                                                                                                                  CEO, Vinay Dube, was
                                                                                                                  approached by at least two
                                                                                                                  airlines - SpiceJet and GoAir - to
                                                                                                                  run the carriers. Dube, new
                                                                                                                  to India, had built a name for
                                                                                                                  himself in his short stint with
                                                                                                                  Jet. Many of his colleagues

I
                                                                                                                  acknowledged his thorough
    ndia’s aviation sector has      than moving to it.                    churn within IndiGo began to            understanding of the airline
    been plagued with an acute           Therefore, it was not a          take its toll on staff, the airline’s   business. However, unable to
    management talent shortage      surprise to IndiGo insiders and       then chief commercial officer,          move cities for personal reasons,
    from the word go and it is      the industry in general that          Sanjay Kumar, who had more              Dube chose GoAir over SpiceJet
    showing no signs improving.     Bhatia sought to convince Rono        than a decade with the airline,         despite the former’s not so
     In early 2018, when the        Datta, an Indian by birth, to         decided to move on. He too              happy reputation in handling
founder of LCC IndiGo, Rahul        come on board at the LCC.             had three airlines chasing him.         employees. Dube left GoAir in
Bhatia, was scouting for a CEO      Datta has had vast management         GoAir approached Kumar to               August.
to succeed Aditya Ghosh, then       experience at airlines in the         join it as did SpiceJet, where he            While the above instances
president and CEO of India’s        U.S. and has a reputation             had worked earlier in his career.       highlight the acute shortage of
largest airline by numbers, he      for rescuing carriers from            AirAsia India, a joint venture          talent the sector faces at top
was not exactly overwhelmed         bankruptcy.                           between Tata Group and the              management level, the sector
with candidates. In India, no            Datta’s children were            AirAsia Group, was Kumar’s              also has suffered and continues
matter the airline looked at, the   grown and India was a known           choice, no doubt influenced by          to suffer from an acute lack
CEO either had been imported        animal to him. He had spent           Tata’s controlling interest in the      of management talent, or as
- Vistara, AirAsia India, GoAir     four years at Sahara Airlines,        LCC.                                    some industry professionals
and Jet Airways being cases in      from 2004-2008, before it was              He came on board at AirAsia        say a “love and obsession
point - or was run directly by      sold to Jet Airways. He had the       India as chief operating officer        for all things foreign”. While
their promoters/investors. The      required expertise even if he was     in November 2018 at almost the          technical expertise – pilots,
obvious example of the latter is    seen more as a full service airline   same time the airline named             engineers and technicians – is in
SpiceJet.                           man than one with expertise           Sunil Bhaskaran as CEO. Kumar,          plentiful supply in India, it is the
     So convincing a qualified      in low-fare carriers. Only a few      who had better knowledge of             management cadre where many
potential CEO to relocate           may know Datta also had been          the sector than his boss, did not       feel there is a vacuum.
to India’s capital city, Delhi,     a choice for Bhatia in 2004.          last long for a variety of reasons           A former aviation secretary
labelled as one of most polluted    When Datta visited India in           and returned to IndiGo as chief         has said India could do with “one
cities in the world, was not        2003, founders of three of the        of strategy and revenue.                less airline and one more airline
easy. Increasing numbers of         country’s airlines, Naresh Goyal,          Shakti Lumba, now 71, and          management school” to help the
expatriates were looking to leave   Subroto Roy and Rahul Bhatia,         an industry veteran respected           sector develop and prevent the
the city, concerned about the       approached him to join them.          for flight operations and               endless cycle of airlines going
impact of air pollution on the      He chose Air Sahara.                  management expertise, had               bankrupt in India. Although
health of their children, rather         In late 2018, when the           been targeted by AirAsia India in       people tend to think only of

8 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
Kingfisher Airlines and now Jet       leaders have developed at             CEOs – the latest in a long line       in the U.S., was a former CEO
Airways [as failed], the country’s    IndiGo. But it suffers too because    was Cornelis Vreeswijk. In 2019,       and chairman of US Airways.
aviation history, he pointed out,     most of the newbies use the           after Jet Airways was grounded,        This arrangement has led to
is populated with failures almost     airline to poach staff for their      Vinay Dube moved to the top            considerable discontent within
from the word go.                     own teams.                            job at GoAir, but its owner, Jeh       the airline and among its Indian
                                                                            Wadia, has replaced him with           employees who often feel they
THE PUBLIC                            A LOVE OF ALL                         Kaushik Khona. The airline is          have to report to “retired expats
SECTOR LEGACY                         THINGS FOREIGN                        struggling to retain key staff and     way past their shelf lives and
One of the reasons the industry       Not everyone agrees local airline     has had more than 13 human             who have little understanding of
has been short of talent is           talent is in short supply. They       resource directors in as many          the Indian situation and reality”.
India’s aviation sector has been      argue instead that Indian airline     years.                                       Many senior employees have
vested entirely in the public         founders have been obsessed                “The inability of the airline’s   taken exception to the fact that
sector. Chairman and managing         by the white man, a legacy            promoters to work consistently         as the airline grew more expats
directors (CMD) of Air India and      of India’s colonial past. “The        with senior professionals has          were brought in to supposedly
Indian Airlines typically have        assumption is someone who             been seen time and again”, said        manage affairs but in fact they
been government officials and         comes from overseas with some         a former CEO of the carrier.           ended up making a “hash”
have tenure at best of five years     global experience necessarily         Most aviation industry personnel       of things. The subsequent
at their appointed airlines.          knows better”, said a senior          who have worked at GoAir have          departure of many of the expats
     “Before the person heading       captain with IndiGo, who also         said its owners do not trust their     confirms their opinions. But even
the airline could acquire expertise   has worked for Jet and Sahara.        own teams. GoAir is seen as a          as the industry grapples with its
in running it, the incumbent          Jet Airways founder, Naresh           stop gap arrangement by many           biggest crisis in COVID-19 the
would change,” said a former          Goyal, largely left the reins         aviation personnel, especially         lack of talent in aviation in India
CMD, who grappled with this           of power in foreign hands,            those who cannot leave Mumbai          remains a worry for the industry.
and attempted to convince the         primarily Nikos Kardassis and         due to personal reasons.               It is a “chicken and egg”
authorities to extend tenures.        Wolfgang Prock-Schaeur, who                But even at airlines like         predicament. Talent at the top
This, in his view, is one of the      both had long stints as CEOs.         IndiGo, the start-up’s CEO             is missing because promoters
reasons for the inconsistent          Goyal turned to Kardassis in          was Bruce Ashby, brought in            don’t want to hand over control
performance of government-            all crises, most recently pulling     by Rakesh Gangwal. Several             to fellow Indians. But unless
owned airlines. Even when             him in when Tata Group was            senior appointees have been            the Indians find themselves
talented, not everyone is willing     in discussions to buy Jet, a deal     selected by Gangwal, albeit            in positions of authority or
to leave a “safe, public sector,      that failed to happen.                from a distance. Gangwal,              leadership, they cannot develop.
government paid job” with                  No matter the airline in         who owns approximately 37%             It remains to be seen who will
several perks to join private         India, its owners and investors       of IndiGo but lives in Miami           blink first. ■
carriers that are perceived as far    have hired foreigners to run
rockier boats and subject to the      them throughout India’s aviation
whims of their founders.              history. India’s first LCC, Air         Rollover of aircraft leases grinding
     As late as 1994, the             Deccan, brought in Warwick              to halt in paralysed market
government allowed private            Brady to run its operations in
airlines to operate as scheduled      Bengaluru. Similarly, when                   Global aviation analyst and data provider, IBA, has warned the
                                                                              commercial aircraft leasing market will experience considerable
airlines. In 1993, Damania            Vijay Mallya decided to take the
                                                                              turmoil in 2021 with more than 1,000 aircraft forecast to be
Airways started operations as         plunge with Kingfisher Airlines,
                                                                              returned to lessors. In a recent webinar, IBA said approximately
an air taxi business. But many        he appointed Alex Wilcox, a             1,300 aircraft, including 200 wide-bodies, were scheduled
of the early players operated as      low-fare airline expert, to launch      pre-pandemic to be returned to their lessors. Most of them
“one man shows” with very little      the airline. Wilcox left Kingfisher     expected to then extend their leases. In the era of the coronavirus
organisational structure. It was      within weeks when he realised           that outcome is extremely unlikely as increasing numbers of airlines
only when Jet Airways was set         Mallya was not interested in            are in negotiations to terminate longer leases earlier rather than
up in the mid-1990s that some         setting up a low-fare product. At       lease planes.
talent began to develop in the        that stage, Mallya hired Sanjay              “This uncertainty is set to break the model of recent years of
sector outside of Air India and       Agarwal, who had done a stint           seamless redeliveries between lessees. IBA expected a higher level
                                                                              of disputes between airlines and lessors around lease returns and
Indian Airlines.                      with US Airways and had been
                                                                              redeliveries,” it said.
     The three airlines have          CEO of SpiceJet until the Marans
                                                                                   IBA said the decline in aircraft leasing activity would drive a
provided the industry with            bought the company. Eventually,         corresponding fall in engine shop visits. Pre-COVID-19, MRO shop
many of its skilled veterans. But     Mallya was forced to take               business was forecast to increase from 3,200 in 2019 to 4,500 by
whenever Indian investors have        matters into his own hands. He          2023, aviation intelligence platform, IBA.iQ said. Now they will
started airlines, they have looked    ran the ship aground himself.           reach only 1,000 shop visits this year. It will take until 2026 to
outside the country for talent.            Mumbai-headquartered               achieve previously forecast 2019 levels.
More recently, some talented          GoAir has only had expat

                                                                                                        OCTOBER 2020 /      ORIENT AVIATION      / 9
NO BACKING DOWN Industry steadfast in commitment to 50% cut in emissions by 2050 - Orient Aviation
NEWS                BACKGROUNDER

Distributing a COVID-19
vaccine air cargo industry’s
greatest challenge
Dealing with a pandemic is bad enough. Now airlines have been told in no uncertain
terms they will face a huge challenge in distributing the COVID-19 vaccine after it is
developed. Associate editor and chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne, reports.

T
             he International Air
             Transport Association’s
             global head of cargo,
             Glyn Hughes, does not
             mince words when
he is describing the importance
the airline industry must place on
preparing for the distribution of
a COVID-19 vaccine to 7.8 billion
people worldwide.
      Just when that will be
remains a matter of conjecture,                “We know the procedures          match shipping needs with the          “However, with over 3,500
but if scientists soon produce a         well. We need to scale them up         infrastructure capabilities of cargo   differently sized cargo handling
coronavirus vaccine, transporting        to the magnitude that will be          for pharmaceuticals and also           facilities worldwide, until now the
it to where it’s needed will be          required.” IATA is working with        certifications of service providers    industry has lacked visibility about
one of the greatest challenges air       airlines, airports, global health      in the value chain.                    the capacities and services these
freight has faced.                       bodies and pharmaceutical                   “This is particularly timely      facilities offer,” he said. “The
      The capabilities of the aircraft   firms to pull together plans for a     amid the COVID-19 crisis when          need for greater transparency is
itself are not the only problem.         distribution program, calling it the   shippers of medical supplies and       even more critical in the current
“The vaccine will have to be             industry’s “largest single transport   pharmaceuticals need accurate          context.”
stored at correct temperatures           challenge ever”, he said.              information for time-and                     Even with military precision
as it moves from the production                There are as many as 250         temperature sensitive shipments,”      planning, Hughes said flights to
source to the airport and then           different vaccine programs under       explained the airline body. “ONE       Africa, Latin America and parts
from the aircraft to distribution        development, said Hughes, citing       Source lists the latest operational    of Southeast Asia, which lack
centres and onto medical facilities      the World Health Organization.         information about airlines,            vaccine production capabilities,
delivering the inoculations,”            Governments have invested              airports, cargo handling facilities,   will be especially challenging.
Hughes said.                             billions of dollars to develop a       freight forwarders, ground                   Developing markets rely
                                         vaccine at an accelerated pace         handlers, shippers, and trucking       almost wholly on cargo carried
                                         and eleven possibilities are           companies. All critical information    in the bellies of passenger
                                         understood to be in late-stage         contained on ONE Source has            planes, many of which remain
                                         trials. But while U.S. President       been verified by IATA for accuracy.    grounded from the COVID-19
                                         Donald Trump has been touting          IATA ONE Source is free for all        plague. For example, Hughes said,
                                         the arrival of a vaccine as early as   service providers across the air       distributing a vaccine in Africa
                                         this month or by November, most        cargo supply chain,” IATA said.        would be “impossible” now,
                                         experts suggested a more realistic          Hughes said air cargo has         given a lack of capacity combined
                                         estimate was mid-2021.                 been essential in the global fight     with the size of the region, its thin
                                               IATA has launched ONE            against COVID-19, transporting         surface transport infrastructure
                                         Source, an online platform             vital equipment and medicines          and the complexities of border
                                         to help the air cargo industry         to those who need them most.           crossings. ■

10 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
NEWS               BACKGROUNDER

Singapore Airlines                                                                                                     a new generation of pilots will
                                                                                                                       have their careers put on hold.
                                                                                                                       SIA has had let go about half of

pilots offer deeper                                                                                                    its 400 cadet pilots and cabin
                                                                                                                       crew trainees. A spokesman

salary cuts to save
                                                                                                                       said those who remain will be
                                                                                                                       supported through their training
                                                                                                                       programmes, but the airline

cockpit jobs                                                                                                           could not keep them after that
                                                                                                                       due to the “current surplus in
                                                                                                                       staff numbers”. SIA will be open
                                                                                                                       to hiring them should there be
Anyone familiar with Singapore Airlines                                                                                demand for cabin crew or junior
(SIA) group CEO, Goh Choon Phong, knows                                      reduction measures.”                      pilots when air travel returns to
cutting 4,300 jobs from the group’s payroll                                       The airline is eliminating           pre-Covid levels, the airline said.
                                                                             around 4,300 positions across                   For Goh, all of this has been
was the most difficult task of his career. But                               SIA, its subsidiaries SilkAir and         an emotional experience. “For
the catastrophic impact of COVID-19 left him                                 Scoot and outports. Some job              our impacted colleagues, please
with no choice, reports associate editor and                                 reduction targets have been met           know this is not a reflection of
                                                                             by not filling vacancies, offering a      your individual strengths and
chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne.
                                                                             generous Special Early Retirement         capabilities. It is the result of an
                                                                             Scheme (SERS) for ground staff            unprecedented travel paralysis
                                                                             and pilots and a Voluntary                brought about by a global

A
                                                                             Release Scheme (VRS) for cabin            pandemic. Please also be assured
                fter the latest       tries to avoid mass sackings. So its   crew. But another 2,400 jobs              we will conduct the process in a
                round of Singapore    announcement last month that           have to go.                               fair and respectful manner and do
                Airline Group         retrenchments were unavoidable              In May, the SIA Group                our best to ensure you receive all
                retrenchments         because of COVID-19 made clear         reported a net loss of US$155.8           necessary support during this very
                were announced in     the challenges the airline group       million for the 12 months to              trying time,” he told employees in
mid-September, the airline group’s    faced.                                 March 31, a reversal from a $502          his message
pilots agreed to take deeper cuts          In a message sent to              million profit a year earlier. In July,         Nobody could have predicted
in their salaries so more of their    more than 17,000 staff in              it announced it had lost $538             the devastating impact of
cockpit colleagues could remain       mid-September, CEO Goh Choon           million in January to March, down         COVID-19, he said. “Eight months
employed, Singapore’s Straits         Phong painted a grim picture of        from the $149.2 million net profit        on, the number of carriers
Times has reported.                   the group’s situation. There had       it reported in the same months            that have collapsed continues
      In addition to a cut in their   been a “catastrophic” 99.5%            a year ago. It was the largest            to rise. It is not clear who will
Monthly Variable component            decline in passenger carriage          quarterly loss in the history of the      ultimately survive this crisis. From
benefit, re-employed captains         in the first quarter of fiscal year    company.                                  airlines and airports to aircraft
and first officers will have their    2020-2021, he said, and the                 SIA has done its best to             manufacturers and suppliers,
salaries reduced by 60% and           group was operating only 8%            soften the blow for departing             everyone has taken sweeping
50%, respectively, at SIA and         of its capacity compared with          employees. Retrenched staff will          steps to cut costs – including
SilkAir. The new pay rates apply      pre-COVID-19 times.                    continue to receive their salaries        drastic measures to reduce staff
from October 1 to March 31                 “Relative to most other           until December 15 and will retain         numbers - and prepare for an
next year. The group employed         major airlines in the world, the       their medical coverage and other          uncertain future,” he said.
approximately 2,600 pilots before     SIA Group is in an even more           benefits until the same date.                   “The future remains
the pandemic took hold, the           vulnerable position,” Goh said.             Each affected employee will          extremely challenging. The
newspaper said.                       “We do not have a domestic             be paid in lieu of the notice period      pandemic is not under control,
      “The company will               market which, as demonstrated          in their employment contract,             with some countries experiencing
implement additional pay cuts for     in many countries, is the first to     which can be up to three months           second and third waves. We
all remaining pilots at Singapore     recover in air traffic.                of salary. Those who have been            do not have a vaccine and tight
Airlines and SilkAir with effect           “Given the expectation the        in service for two years or more          border restrictions remain in
from October 1. As a result, this     road to recovery will be long          will receive one month of pay for         place as governments try to limit
agreement will help mitigate          and fraught with uncertainty           every year of service, capped at          imported cases. Global economic
future job losses for our pilots,”    it has come to the point where         25 months.                                growth remains anaemic, with
an airline group spokesman said.      we have had to make the                     Sadly, in an industry that           little impetus for the return of
      Unlike many airlines in times   painfully difficult decision of        not long ago was fretting about           international leisure and business
of crisis, Singapore Airlines (SIA)   implementing involuntary staff         potential cockpit crew shortages,         travel.” ■

                                                                                                          OCTOBER 2020      /   ORIENT AVIATION      / 11
NEWS               BACKGROUNDER

Southeast Asia’s emerging
powerhouses
China and India have long been touted as the growth engines of Asian aviation but
two other nations promise to be future powerhouses of the airline industry. After the
pandemic, Vietnam will almost certainly be one of the region’s winner.

By associate editor and chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne

I
     t is no accident Vietnam’s        another wave of the virus, in July     dominate the market. Flag carrier,   a cap of 34% ownership of
     airline sector is leading the     and August, saw services fall          Vietnam Airlines (VNA), and low-     a domestic airline. Southeast
     way in recovery from the          by around 30%. Nevertheless,           cost carrier, VietJet Air, command   Asia’s largest budget carrier, the
     coronavirus pandemic. The         General Director of Vietnam            a combined 75% market share.         AirAsia Group, has made four
     country’s government acted        Airlines, Duong Tri Thanh, has         Pacific Airways (formerly Jetstar    unsuccessful attempts to add the
swiftly when the outbreak began        said domestic flights in the last      Pacific), a wholly-owned VNA         nation to its network. Vietnam
and despite a recent increase in       five months of the year would be       subsidiary after Qantas Airways      remains the only country in the
cases the situation appears to be      around 70% of last year, much          recently offloaded its 30%           region that does not have foreign-
under control.                         higher numbers than most other         holding, has another 10%.            owned budget airlines operating
      The result? A study released     countries in the region.               Newcomer Bamboo Airlines is          in its home market.
last month by Oxford Economics               What the figures indicate,       the fourth major airline in the            Last month, Vietnam Airlines
forecasts Vietnam is expected          according to analysts, is when         county and VASCO, another VNA        and Vietjet resumed international
to be the only Southeast Asian         restrictions on international travel   subsidiary, plays a minor role.      flying post the pandemic hiatus
economy to report expansion this       ease, the Vietnamese aviation               Vietnam’s Hanoi-Ho Chi          with flights from South Korea.
year, with its GDP to rise by 2.3%.    sector will be well positioned         Minh City is the world’s fourth      Vietjet, which is marketing itself
      The Global Economic Outlook      to attract growing numbers of          busiest domestic pair in seats       as a new age carrier, sweetened
report said recovery prospects         tourists and foreign investment.       offered and the most lucrative       its September 30 re-launch of
look brightest for Vietnam, which            The Vietnamese                   in-country route in Southeast        Seoul-Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)
had contained the COVID-19             government’s approach to the           Asia. Vietnamese air travel has      and Seoul-Hanoi-HCMC from
outbreak very effectively until        COVID-19 crisis has been steady        grown nearly 20% annually for        October 7 with a new deluxe
recently. Vietnam’s performance        and measured. For example,             the past five years. In response,    ticket class and upgraded
stands in stark contrast to the rest   Hanoi froze approval of entrant        the Transport Ministry plans to      benefits for members of its
of Southeast Asia, where growth        airlines until 2022. Transport         spend $15.4 billion to develop 23    Skyboss frequent flyer brand.
is predicted to contract by 4.2%       Minister, Nguyen Van The, said         airports by 2030.                    Members will be offered business
in 2020.                               supporting existing operators               There are high barriers         class style services, including
      Vietnam’s domestic flight        must take top priority. There are      to entry into the Vietnam air        priority check-in and boarding,
network had returned to 2019           five commercial airlines operating     passenger market for foreign         luggage packages and seat
levels in recent months until          within Vietnam, but two players        aviation companies; specifically     selection.

12 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
Vietnam Airlines beat VietJet                                                                               lack of safety overnight and
in re-opening the Seoul-Vietnam          Vietnam early responder to                                               airline mismanagement that
route by a few days, but the
vibrant LCC, along with young
                                         re-opening international flights                                         has led to airline losses. It does
                                                                                                                  not, however, detract from
full service Bamboo Airways,                  Vietnam Airlines flew Seoul Incheon to Hanoi’s Noi Bai              the potential for growth post-
is testing the mettle of the flag        International airport with an A350-900 on September 25 after             pandemic.
carrier both domestically and            a six-month hiatus in operating international flights. Passengers              Indonesia’s unique
                                         were tested for the COVID-19 virus after they disembarked from
regionally.                                                                                                       geography, with most of
                                         the journey.
      While there remains a great                                                                                 its major cities separated by
                                              It was the first international commercial flight to Vietnam since
deal of uncertainty about the            the outbreak of the corona virus early this year.                        mountain ranges and seas means
impact of the pandemic on                     Deputy director of the country’s Civil Aviation Administration      transportation by land or sea
Asia-Pacific airlines, it is assumed     of Vietnam, Vo Huy Cuong, said: “this is not only the first inter-       can take days and this gives the
that recovery will come at some          national flight to Vietnam after COVID-19, but also a ‘trial flight’     aviation sector a competitive
stage. And if past performance is        to evaluate our operational capability to welcome international          edge. While there are more than
anything to go by, Vietnam will          visitors by way of our local industry.                                   60 scheduled and unscheduled
resume its spectacular growth in              “This flight denotes a substantial recovery for Vietnamese          airlines operating in Indonesia
the aviation sector.                     aviation that realises the government’s dual goal of fighting the        the market is dominated by
                                         pandemic and promoting economic development, embracing the
      The International Air                                                                                       flag carrier, Garuda Indonesia,
                                         “new normal” with more development opportunities.”
Transport Association’s (IATA)                                                                                    its domestic subsidiary Citilink
statistics show Vietnam is one                                                                                    and Indonesia’s largest airline,
of five global markets with the        of Vietnamese will be affluent         more than ten-fold, from 102        budget Lion Air. Other operators
largest increases in passengers        compared with 5% in 2018,              aeroplanes in 1990 to 1,030 in      include Batik Air, a Lion subsidiary,
after China, U.S., India and           another factor offering the            2017. Airline expansion has been    Malindo Air and Thai Lion Air.
Indonesia. Its annual growth rate      promise of more major growth in        underpinned by the country’s        Before the crisis domestic traffic
from 2011 to 2015 was 32.65%.          the country.                           economic growth, the emergence      was reporting double-digit
The total Vietnam aviation                  Like Vietnam, Indonesia has       of LCCs and the expansion of the    growth for five years.
industry, including international      seen impressive growth in its          country’s middle class.                   All in all, post the COVID-19
traffic, increased by 2.6 times        aviation sector since the airline          But unlike Vietnam, Indonesia   recovery there is little reason to
in scale, from 23.7 million            industry was deregulated in 2000.      has not managed the pandemic        doubt the miserable hiatus in
passengers in 2011 to 61.2 million     Airline passengers have increased      outbreak competently. As a          air passenger services is merely
in 2017.                               from nine million in 1990 to           result, its growth has stalled,     a pause in both Vietnam and
      By 2030, the Boston              around 90 million in 2016 and the      especially as it already has        Indonesia before they resume
Consulting Group forecasts 16%         country’s airline fleets have soared   growing pains ranging from          their rapid trajectories. ■

Bamboo Airways
accepts first two
Embraer E195 jets

V
              ietnam’s first           visitors to a 16 island archipelago
              full-service private     off the southern coast of
              carrier, Bamboo          Vietnam.                               vice chairman, Dang Tat Thang,      conglomerate, FLC Group,
              Airways, is to                Bamboo Airways, which             said the Embraer E195’s short       began flying in January 2019
              operate its newly        is targeting the middle to high        runway performance made it          with the aim of achieving five
arrived E195 jets from Hanoi to        end leisure market, initially will     ideal for flights to Con Dao,       star status for the carrier as it
tourist hot spot, the southern         service Con Dao with two flights       which falls short in runway         built its network in Vietnam and
island of Con Dao, 1,400               a day from Hanoi and once daily        maintenance and aircraft fuel       internationally. Pre-COVID-19,
kilometres (760 nautical miles)        from Vinh and Hai Phong. It will       supply.                             it was operating 51 domestic
from the nation’s capital, Hanoi.      be equipped with a business                 The Hanoi-headquartered        and regional routes and
The jet service to the island          class in its 118 seat configuration.   company, owned by travel            had transported five million
will provide a staging point for            Bamboo Airways executive          to property and mining              passengers since its launch. ■

                                                                                                        OCTOBER 2020   /   ORIENT AVIATION      / 13
MAIN         STORY

   NO BACKING OFF
  LOWER EMISSIONS
  TARGETS PROMISES
      INDUSTRY
              Global aviation remains on track with its commitment
                   to achieving a 50% reduction in emissions
               by 2050 from 2005 levels, reports associate editor
                   and chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne.

          W
                                ith aviation losses mounting by billions          Also in September, manufacturer Airbus announced
                                of dollars a month from the coronavirus      developments in its hydrogen powered jet. Rival Boeing is
                                pandemic, the industry could be forgiven     continuing its research and the design of the B787
                                for losing sight of ambitious                ecoDemonstrator in joint partnership with Etihad Airways.
                                environmental targets. Mid-pandemic,              Engine manufacturers, whose development work is
          survival is the name of the game as airlines slash capacity        critical to achieving ultimate sustainability, are pursuing
          and store thousands of jets in airline parking lots; a situation   emissions mitigation programs. “The pandemic has actually
          that probably delights an extremist wing of the climate            brought the aviation industry forward by focusing attention
          movement that has long targeted airlines as major global           on sustainability and how we need to advance technologies
          polluters.                                                         that help the aviation industry drive down CO2 emissions,”
               Despite the enormity of the crisis the airline industry is
          experiencing, it has recommitted to its ambitious emissions
          reduction targets. “The bottom line is it’s still critically
          important for the industry to continue to push for
          sustainability and meet the 2050 targets set in stone in
          2016,” said former CNN journalist and Head of
          Communications Environment at the International Air
          Transport Association (IATA), Andrew Stevens.
               “There is no doubt this is going to be more difficult
          given the financial situation of the airlines, but we have not
          seen clear evidence airlines are pulling back on their
          commitments. For example, I have not seen anything that
          suggested, at this stage at least, that airlines will not honour
          their commitments to the uptake of sustainable aviation
          fuel.”
               It is a view shared across the industry. Last month the
          oneworld alliance, which represents 13 major airline groups,
          including leading Asia-Pacific carriers Cathay Pacific Group,
          Japan Airlines and the Qantas Group, re-confirmed its
          commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. It is the
          first global airline alliance to unite behind a common target
          to achieve carbon neutrality.

14 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
Pratt & Whitney senior vice president, engineering, Geoff        to address the global challenge of climate change and
Hunt, told Orient Aviation last month.                           establish ambitious targets to mitigate CO2 emissions from
     As a result of the pandemic, the engine manufacturer        air transport. The targets remain to achieve an average
has reduced its workforce, cut capital expenditure and           improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009
prioritized investments, but Hunt said one program Pratt &       to 2020, a cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020
Whitney has kept front and centre is the Geared Turbofan™        (carbon neutral growth) and a 50% reduction in net aviation
engine (GTF™). “We believe the geared turbofan                   CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2005 levels.
architecture we pioneered has room to develop and deliver             In March, Montreal-headquartered International Civil
improvements in fuel efficiency and lower emissions,             Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed the types of carbon
particularly NOx,” he said.                                      offset units eligible for compliance with the world’s first
     Rolls-Royce has announced the completion of tests on        global sector climate mechanism, the Carbon Offsetting and
ground-breaking technology that will power the world’s           Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
fastest all-electric plane. “Rolls-Royce’s announcement
follows the unveiling of Airbus’s three zero-emission            MORE THAN 80 COUNTRIES HAVE
commercial aircraft models. It is another indication             COMMITTED TO THE INDUSTRY’S CARBON
aerospace companies are increasingly attempting to align         OFFSETTING SCHEME
their businesses to a future market emphasising climate          At press time, 82 countries had agreed to participate in the
consciousness, GlobalData Aerospace and Defense Associate        first and voluntary phase of CORSIA. It is estimated about
Analyst, Harry Boneham, said.                                    80% of the growth in international aviation’s CO2 will be
     Results of a poll conducted by Globescan, released in       covered by the scheme from the end of this year.
September, identified growing numbers of people are “very             These developments were debated at the Air Transport
concerned” about climate change, despite the pandemic and        Action Group’s (ATAG) 2020 Global Sustainable Aviation
the subsequent economic impact of the virus. Across the 27       Forum - Green Recovery, a virtual, on-line event at the turn
countries surveyed, around 90% of respondents viewed             of the month that brought together representatives from all
climate change as a very serious or somewhat serious             sectors of the industry to discuss aviation sustainability
problem. That finding has strengthened in recent years. In       beyond COVID-19.
the UK, long time climate change advocate, the Prince of              ICAO council president, Salvatore Sciacchitano, told the
Wales, has warned the climate crisis will “dwarf” the impact     ATAG virtual summit “health and safety, and the
of the pandemic.                                                 fundamental economic viability of operators must be
     At the turn of the month, China joined the front line of    assured”.
the anti-emissions flight with President Xi Jinping’s                 “But we also must recognise the opportunity this crisis
commitment for his nation to reach carbon neutrality by          provides to build back commercial aviation greener,” he said.
2060.                                                                 ATAG executive director, Michael Gill, said “2020 was
     For more than a decade, aviation, with IATA as its lead     supposed to be, alongside 2019, the baseline for the
spokesperson, has been at the forefront of seeking the science   CORSIA programme”.
                                                                      “An average of the two years was agreed to smooth any
                                                                 potential downturn in traffic in either year, but a situation as
                                                                 grave as the one we face was never contemplated. It is much
                                                                 too early to determine the impact of COVID-19 will have on
                                                                 the CORSIA baseline. We will continue to monitor how the
                                                                 situation evolves over time. However, any modelling done
                                                                 today will be out of date in a week,” he said.
                                                                      “It is very clear 2020 is a completely abnormal situation.
                                                                 In the meantime, we have an industry to rebuild and a world
                                                                 to reconnect.”
                                                                      While there is a major reduction in aviation’s
                                                                 contribution to global emissions this year given the number
                                                                 of aircraft on the ground, at some stage growth will resume.
                                                                 IATA’s Stevens said: “For the return to normal growth we
                                                                 are forecasting 2024, but the numbers just get worse and
                                                                 worse.
                                                                      “We have not updated that, but we will have a new
                                                                 financial forecast for the industry around the AGM in
                                                                 November. I can’t imagine they are going to be any better.
                                                                 They could be worse.
                                                                      “Given this has gone on a lot longer than anyone
                                                                 thought, returning to normal may be pushed further and

                                                                                                 OCTOBER 2020     /   ORIENT AVIATION   / 15
MAIN         STORY

          further out. There is a school of thought the trajectory of         aviation fuel to contribute to building a firm supply chain
          growth in the airline industry post COVID-19 will not               for the airline industry,” he said.
          return [to past performance]. We will go back to growth                  Malaysia Airlines Berhad CEO, Captain Izham Ismail
          rates but we won’t be at the same level of air traffic in           said: “Congratulations to the oneworld alliance, Malaysia
          numbers by 2050 that we expected before the crisis.”                Airlines is proud to be in support of this amazing initiative
                The pandemic has removed large numbers of bigger, less        together with our fellow member airlines towards driving
          fuel-efficient aircraft from airline fleets. “I guess you can say   the long-term sustainability of the aviation industry. We
          it’s a bit of a double-edged sword,” said Stevens. Airlines are     seek to play a greater part in building a legacy for future
          taking the big ones out of service but the other side of the        generations and are enhancing our own airline’s
          coin is fleet renewal will be more of a challenge, that is          contribution to global sustainability efforts.”
          getting more efficient planes to replace the older planes, he            Interestingly, the oneworld targets are well ahead of
          said.                                                               IATA’s goals. Several member airlines are actively
                “I can’t see fleet renewal will continue at the pace it was   prioritising a range of environmental sustainability
          originally planned, at least not in the immediate few years.        initiatives. IAG (the parent of member carriers British
          Yes, the environmentalists will be pretty happy when they look      Airways and Iberia) was the first airline group worldwide to
          up at the sky now, but the bottom line is the world still needs     commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. JAL and
          air travel and connectivity. The COVID crisis will reveal what      Qantas also have targeted net zero carbon emissions by
          it means to the global economy when you do not have air             2050, while Finnair is aiming even higher, with the goal of
          travel, when you do not have planes in the sky,” he said.           carbon neutrality by 2045.
                                                                                   “They’ve decided they are going to go carbon neutral,
          ONEWORLD ALLIANCE COMMITS TO NET                                    zero emissions by 2050 that is more aggressive than IATA,
          ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050                                              which is fantastic,” Stevens said. “And to say this in the
          Oneworld’s environmental goals underscore its carriers’             middle of the COVID crisis underlines a commitment and
          sustainability focus. The alliance’s chairman and Qantas            focus to doing this. 2050 is still a long way out but to have
          Group CEO, Alan Joyce, said the commitment of oneworld              that reinforcement at this time is very gratifying.”
          members to reach net zero emissions by 2050, from 2005                   In some quarters, however, there remain questions about
          levels, “underlines the importance we, as an alliance, place        the ability of aviation to reach the 2050 targets. In a July
          on becoming a more sustainable industry. Despite the                report, senior associate, transportation and infrastructure
          challenges we are all facing from the COVID-19 pandemic,            research at Sustainalytics, Helene Gaudin, said airlines are
          we have not lost sight of the responsibility we have to reduce      in dire need of cash to recover yet the industry is expected to
          emissions in the long term. Today’s announcement reflects           adapt and prepare itself for the more critical crisis of climate
          the strength of that commitment.”                                   change.
               Japan Airlines (JAL) president, Yuji Akasaka, said his              “Despite the slowdown of air travel, long-term prospects
          airline fully recognises the industry will play a vital role in     for mitigating the carbon footprint of the industry are not
          promoting a sustainable future and proudly supports the             clear. Carbon commitments supported by comprehensive
          alliance in achieving net zero carbon emissions by the year         programs are in place. Nonetheless, our research suggests
            2050. “In recent years, the JAL Group has invested in the         existing measures may not be sufficient to curve down
                                        development of sustainable            emissions and mitigate climate change,” she said.
                                                                                   The financial struggle of the industry and the required
                                                                                           state support for it is a rare opportunity for
                                                                                           governments to invest in cleaner solutions and
                                                                                          dictate environmental conditions such as taxing
                                                                                          fossil fuels and requiring the use of greener energy
                                                                                         sources. It would undoubtedly be fiercely contested
                                                                                        by airlines, already suffering under heavy tax
                                                                                        burdens, she forecast.
                                                                                             IATA is fighting proposed environmental taxes
                                                                                       in France, which it calculated would fail to
                                                                                      decarbonize the aviation sector but would eliminate
                                                                                      150,000 French aviation jobs. The Convention
                                                                                      Citoyenne pour le Climat (CCC) - a citizens’ body
                                                                                     created under President Macron – is proposing
                                                                                    measures to curb aviation emissions, including an
                                                                                    eco-tax on tickets issued in France, to raise $4.9 billion
                                                                                   annually. France already collects some of the highest
                                                                                  aviation taxes in Europe. IATA director general and
                                                                                  CEO, Alexander de Juniac, warned such unilateral

16 / ORIENT AVIATION / OCTOBER 2020
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