NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT - Region: Chatham-Kent/L ambton/Sarnia

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Needs Assessment Report                   n/Sarnia Regioon
                   p - Chatham-Kent/Lambton                                            June 12, 2016

                                                              Hydro One Netw  works Inc.
                                                              483 Bay Street
                                                              Toronto, Ontario
                                                              M5G 2P5

                            NEEDS ASSESSMENT REPORT
                       Region: Chatham-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia

                                       Date: June 12, 22016

Preparred by: Cha
                atham-Kent//Lambton/S
                                    Sarnia Stud
                                              dy Team
Needs Assessment Rep
                   port – Chatham
                                m-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia Regioon                            Junee 12, 2016

This reeport is preppared on beehalf of the Chatham-K     Kent/Sarnia/L
                                                                      Lambton reggional plannning
study teeam with thee participatio
                                 on of represeentatives from
                                                           m the follow
                                                                      wing organizzations:

                                        Orgganizations
                          Hydro One Networrks Inc. (Leaad Transmittter)
                            Independent Electricity Systtem Operator
                           Bluew
                               water Powerr Distributionn Corporatioon
                                         En
                                          ntegrus Inc.
                            Hyddro One Netw
                                          works Inc. (D Distribution))

                                                                                        Pagee | 2
Needs Assessment Rep
                   port – Chatham
                                m-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia Regioon                                  Junee 12, 2016

Disclaim
       mer

This Neeeds Assessm ment Reportt was preparred for the puurpose of iddentifying pootential needds in
the Chhatham-Kentt/Lambton/Sarnia and to assess whether thoose needs require furrther
coordin
      nated regional planning.. The potenttial needs thhat have beeen identified through this
Needs Assessmentt Report may be studiied further through suubsequent reegional plannning
processses and may be reevaluated based on n the findinggs of furtherr analysis. Thhe load forecast
and ressults reporteed in this Needs Assesssment Repoort are baseed on the innformation and
assumpptions providded by study team particiipants.

Study team partiicipants, th    heir respecttive affiliatted organizzations, andd Hydro One
Networrks Inc. (collectively, “tthe Authors””) make no representations or warrranties (exprress,
impliedd, statutory or otherwise)) as to the Needs Assesssment Reporrt or its conttents, includding,
withoutt limitation, the accuraccy or complleteness of the informaation thereinn and shall not,
under any circumsttances whatssoever, be liiable to eachh other, or too any third party for whhom
the Neeeds Assessm  ment Report was prepareed (“the Inttended Thirdd Parties”), or to any other
third paarty reading or receiving
                                g the Needs Assessment Report (“thhe Other Third Parties”),, for
any direect, indirect or consequeential loss orr damages o r for any puunitive, inciddental or speecial
damagees or any loss of profit, lo
                                 oss of contraact, loss of o pportunity or loss of goodwill resulting
from orr in any way related to the reliancee on, accepttance or usee of the Neeeds Assessm       ment
Report or its con    ntents by any person or entity, including, but not limited to, the
aforemeentioned perrsons and enttities.

                                                                                              Pagee | 3
Needs Assessment Rep
                       port – Chatham
                                    m-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia Regioon                                      Junee 12, 2016

                            NEEDS ASSESSMEN
                                          NT EXECUT
                                                  TIVE SUMM
                                                          MARY

NAME                                Chaatham-Kent/L
                                                  Lambton/Sarnnia Study Teaam
LEAD                                Hydro One Netw  works Inc.
REGION                              Chaatham-Kent/L Lambton/Sarnnia
START DAT
        TE                          Aprril 13, 2016                 END DAT
                                                                          TE          June 122, 2016

    1.    IN
           NTRODUCTION
The purpose of this Needs Assessment report is to undertake an assessment of the Chatham-
Kent/Lambton/Sarnia Region and determine if there are regional needs that require coordinated regional
planning. Where regional coordination is not reqquired, and a “localized” wires solutioon is necessarry, such
needs will beb addressed between releevant Local Distribution
                                                 D            C
                                                              Companies (LLDCs) and H  Hydro One annd other
parties as req
             quired.

For needs thhat require furrther regionall planning andd coordinationn, the Indepeendent Electricity System O
                                                                                                            Operator
(IESO) will initiate the Scoping Asseessment proceess to determ    mine whether an IESO-ledd Integrated R   Regional
Resource Pllanning (IRR  RP) process, or the transm  mitter-led Reggional Infrastrructure Plan (RIP) processs (wires
solution), orr whether bothh are requiredd.
    2.    REGIONAL ISSUE/ TR
                           RIGGER
The Needs Assessment
           A           fo
                        or the Chathaam-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia R     Region was trriggered in response to the Ontario
Energy Board’s (OEB) Regional
                        R         Infraastructure Plaanning processs approved iin August 20013. To prioriitize and
manage the regional plannning processs, Ontario’s 212 regions weere assigned to one of thrree groups - G  Group 1
Regions are being review
                       wed first. Thee Chatham-Keent/Lambton//Sarnia Regioon belongs to Group 3. Thhe Needs
Assessment for Chatham-Kent/Lambto     on/Sarnia Reg gion was trigggered on Aprril 13, 2016 aand was comppleted on
June 12, 201
           16.
    3.    SC
           COPE OF NEEDS ASS
                           SESSMENT
                                  T
The scope of this Needs Assessment
                        A          was
                                   w limited to o the next 10 yyears as per thhe recommenndations of thee
Planning Pro
           ocess Workinng Group Repport to the OE
                                                EB.

The scope of the Need    ds Assessmen   nt includes a review of ttransmission system capaability whichh covers
transformer station capaccity, transmisssion circuit thermal
                                                     t       capaccity, voltage pperformance and load resttoration.
System reliaability, operaational issues and asset repplacement pllans were alsoo briefly reviewed as parrt of this
Needs Assesssment.

Needs emerg  ging over the next 10 yearrs and requirin
                                                     ng coordinateed regional pllanning may bbe further asssessed as
part of the IE
             ESO-led Scop  ping Assessmment and/or IR
                                                    RRP, or in thee next planninng cycle. If reequired, an IR
                                                                                                            RRP will
develop a 20 0-year strateg
                          gic direction for
                                        fo the Region
                                                    n
    4.    IN
           NPUTS/DAT
                   TA
Study team m participantss, including representative
                                       r              es from LDC Cs, the IESO  O, and Hydrro One transsmission
provided in nformation foor the Chathaam-Kent/Lam    mbton/Sarnia Region. Thee informationn included: pplanning
activities alrready underw
                         way, historicall load, load forecast,
                                                     fo        conseervation and demand mannagement (CDDM) and
distributed generation (DG)
                         (       information, system m reliability performancee, operationaal issues andd major
equipment approaching
            a            end-of-life.
                         e
    5.    ASSESSMEN
                  NT METHO
                         ODOLOGY
                               Y
The assessmment’s primarry objective was
                                       w to identiffy the electriccal infrastructture needs inn the Region over the
study periodd (2015 – 20224). The asseessment revieewed availablle informationn and load foorecasts and iincluded
single contin
            ngency analyssis to identify
                                       y needs.

                                                                                                       Pagee | 4
Needs Assessment Rep
                       port – Chatham
                                    m-Kent/Lambton/Sarnia Regioon                                         Junee 12, 2016

    6.    RESULTS
Transmissio
          on Capacity Needs

A. 230/115 kV Autotranssformer Capaccity
     Baseed on the grooss regional-coincident load forecast, thhe 230/115 kV
                                                                            V autotransforrmers capacitty (Scott
        TS) supplying thhe Region iss adequate ovver the studyy period for the loss of a single 230//115 kV
        autootransformer in the Regionn.
B. 230 kV Transmission Lines
     Baseed on the grooss regional-ccoincident looad forecast, the 230 kV ccircuits supplying the Reggion are
        adeqquate over thee study periodd for the loss of a single 2330 kV circuit in the Regionn.
C. 115 kV Transmission Lines
     Baseed on the grooss regional-ccoincident looad forecast, the 115 kV ccircuits supplying the Reggion are
        adeqquate over thee study periodd for the loss of a single 1115 kV circuit in the Regionn.
D. 230 kV and 115 kV Connection Facilities
     Loadings at Kentt TS exceed their transform
                                                mer 10-Day L
                                                           Long Term R
                                                                     Rating (LTR) in 2016 based on the
        net load forecast..

System Reliiability, Operation and Restoration Needs
                                               N

 A. Load Seecurity
     Baseed on the gross reggional-coinciddent load forecast annd                     the   exiisting   transm
                                                                                                              mission
       conffiguration, loaad security crriteria can be met over the study period..
 B. Load Reestoration
     Baseed on the gross regionnal-coincidentt load forecaasts with thhe use of eexisting transsmission
       infraastructure, resstoration criteeria can be meet over the stuudy period.
 C. Voltage Performancee
     Undder gross regional-coinciddent peak loaad conditions, post-continngency voltagge at all trannsformer
       statiions in the reggion meet Maarket Rule reqquirements.
 D. Bulk Poower System Performance in the Regionn
     Baseed on the asssumed system    m study condditions, no buulk power syystem issue w
                                                                                         was identifiedd in the
       Reggion. The IESO might unddertake planniing study to aaccess the adeequacy of thee bulk power system
       withh different sysstem conditioons.

Aging Infra
          astructure / Replacement
                       R         t Plan

During the study
            s      period, plans to replaace aged equiipment at stattions and seveeral transmisssion circuits w
                                                                                                              will take
place. Furtheer details of these investments can be fo
                                                     ound in Sectioon 6.3 of this report.

    7.    RECOMMENDATIONS
                        S
Based on the findings off the Needs Assessment, th  he study team
                                                                m recommendss Hydro One transmissionn and the
relevant LDCs to develop p a local plan to address th
                                                    hermal overloaad of transforrmer T3 at Keent TS.

                                                                                                         Pagee | 5
Needss Assessment Report - Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reggion                                                                            June 12, 2016

TAB
  BLE OF CONTENTS
                S
Need
   ds Assessmen
              nt Executivee Summary ................................................................................. 4
List of Figures an
                 nd Tables ………………                     ………………               …………………………                            ……………....7
1 Introduction   n ..................................................................................................................... 8
2       Regional Isssue / Triggerr .................................................................................................. 8
3       Scope of Neeeds Assessm
                              ment............................................................................................ 9
    3.11 Chatham-K        Kent/Lambto        on/Sarnia Reegion Descripption and Coonnection Configurationn
    ............................................................................................................................................. 9
4       Inputs and Data ............................................................................................................. 12
    4.1
      1 Load Foreccast .............................................................................................................. 13
5       Assessment Methodolog
                            gy ............................................................................................. 13
6       Results ........................................................................................................................... 14
    6.1
      1         Transm
                     mission Systeem Capacity
                                            y Needs ................................................................. 14
        6.1.1        230 kV and 115
                                  5 kV Autotraansformers ............................................................ 14
        6.1.2       230 kV Transmission Lines ............................................................................. 14
        6.1.3       115 kV Transmission Lines ............................................................................. 14
        6.1.4       230 kV and 115 kV Connecttion Facilitiees ...................................................... 14
    6.2
      2         System
                     m Reliability,, Operation and Restorattion Review .................................... 15
        6.2.1       Load
                       d Security .................................................................................................... 15
        6.2.2       Load
                       d Restoration
                                   n ............................................................................................... 15
        6.2.3       Voltage Perform
                                  mance ........................................................................................ 16
        6.2.4       Bulk
                       k Power Systtem Perform
                                             mance in the Region ............................................. 16
    6.3
      3         Aging Infrastructurre and Replaacement Plann of Major Equipment .................... 16
7       Recommend
                dations ......................................................................................................... 17
8       References ..................................................................................................................... 17
Appeendix A: Loaad Forecasts ................................................................................................ 18
Appeendix B: Key
               y Terms and Definitions ............................................................................ 21
Appeendix C: Acrronyms ........................................................................................................ 23

                                                                                                                                      Page | 6
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                                          Juune 12, 2016

LIST
   T OF FIGU
           URES

Figurre 1: Map off Chatham-KKent/Lambton
                                       n/Sarnia Reggion ................................................... 9
Figurre 2: Single-Line diagram
                             m – Chatham
                                       m-Kent/Lammbton/Sarnia Region ........................ 11

LIST
   T OF TAB
          BLES

Tablee 1: Study teeam participaants for Chattham-Kent/LLambton/Sarrnia Region ................... 8
Tablee 2: Hydro One and custtomer assets in Chatham   m-Kent/Lambbton/Sarnia Region...... 10
Tablee 3 : Gas-fireed generationn output levels assumedd for Needs Assessment ................. 12
Tablee 4 : CDM fo  orecast for th
                                he Chatham-- Kent/Lambbton/Sarnia Region ......................... 18
Tablee 5: Chathamm-Kent/Lamb    bton/Sarnia regional coiincidental load forecast ................... 19
Tablee 6 : Chathamm-Kent/Lam  mbton/Sarniaa regional noon-coincidenntal load foreecast ......... 20

                                                                                                   Page | 7
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                              Juune 12, 2016

1 INTRODUC
         CTION

This Needs Assesssment reporrt provides a descriptionn of the analyysis to identtify needs thaat
may be emerging  g in the Chaatham-Kent//Lambton/Saarnia (the Region) overr the next teen
yearss. The deveelopment off the Needs Assessmennt report is in accordannce with thhe
regional planning
                g process as set out in th
                                         he Ontario E nergy Boarrd’s (OEB) Transmissioon
Systeem Code (TSSC) and Disttribution Sysstem Code ( DSC) requirrements andd the Planninng
Proceess Working
               g Group (PPW WG) Report to the OEB.

The purpose of this Needss Assessmen       nt report is to: consideer the inforrmation from   m
plann
    ning activitiies already underway; undertake an assesssment of thhe Chatham              m-
Kent//Lambton/Saarnia Region  n to identify near term annd/or emergiing needs inn the area; annd
determmine if thesse needs req quire a “loccalized” wirees only soluution(s) in the near-term m
and/o
    or a coordinaated regionaal planning assessment. Where a loccal wires onnly solution is
necesssary to addrress the need
                              ds, Hydro On ne, as transm
                                                       mitter, with LDCs or other connectinng
custo
    omer(s) willl further undertake pllanning asssessments to develop options annd
recom
    mmend soluttion(s). For needs that reequire furtheer regional pllanning and coordinationn,
the Independent Electricity System Operator (thee IESO) will initiate the Scopinng
Assesssment proccess to deterrmine wheth    her an IESO O-led Integrrated Regional Resourcce
Plann
    ning (IRRP)) process, or the transsmitter-led Regional Innfrastructuree Plan (RIP         P)
proceess (wires so
                 olution), or both are requ
                                          uired.

This report was prepared by Hydro One (Lead Transm   mitter) with input from the Chatham m-
Kent//Lambton/Saarnia Region n Needs Asssessment stuudy team listted in Table 1. The repoort
captu
    ures the resu
                ults of the asssessment based on infoormation proovided by LDCs and thhe
IESO
   O.

Tablee 1: Study tea
                  am participa
                             ants for Chattham-Kent/L
                                                    Lambton/Sarrnia Region
 No.                     Organ
                             nizations
 1.    Hydro On
              ne Networks Inc. (Lead Transmitter)
 2.    Independeent Electricitty System Operator
                                         p
 3.    Bluewaterr Power Disttribution Corrporation
 4.    Entegrus Power Liness Inc.
 5.    Hydro On
              ne Networks Inc. (Distrib
                                      bution)

2 REGIONA
        AL ISSUE / TRIGGE
                        ER

The Needs Assessment for the Chatham  m-Kent/Lambbton/Sarnia Region wass triggered in
respo
    onse to the Ontario Enerrgy Board’s (OEB) Regiional Infrasttructure Plannning processs
appro
    oved in August 2013. To prioritizze and mannage the reggional plannning process,
                                                                                  Page | 8
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                           Juune 12, 2016

Ontarrio’s 21 regiions were asssigned to one of three groups, where Group 1 Regions arre
being
    g reviewed first. The Region falls into Groupp 3. The Neeeds Assessm  ment for this
Regio
    on began on April 13, 20 016 and wass completed o n June 12, 2016.

3 SCOPE OF
         F NEEDS ASSESSM
                       MENT

This Needs Asssessment co    overs the Chatham-Kennt/Lambton//Sarnia Reggion over an
assessment period of 10 yearrs, from 201  15 to 2024. The scope of the Needs Assessmennt
includes a review w of transm
                            mission systeem connectiion facility capability which coverrs
transfformer statio
                  on capacity,, transmissio
                                          on circuit thermal capaccity, voltage performancce
and load restorattion. System
                            m reliability, operationall issues andd asset replaacement planns
were also briefly reviewed ass part of this Needs Asseessment.

3.1 Chatham-Keent/Lambton/Sarnia Reegion Descrription and Connection
                                                                   n
    Configuratio
               on

The region includ   des the munnicipalities off Lambton S hores and Chatham-Keent, as well as
the townships of Petrolia, Plympton-W        Wyoming, Brooke-Alviinston, Daw  wn-Euphemiaa,
Ennisskillen, St. Clair, Warwiick, and Villlages of Oil Springs andd Point Edw
                                                                             ward. The areea
is borrdered by thee London area
                               r to the easst and Windssor-Essex to the southweest.
Figurre 1 illustratees the approx
                                ximate study y area.

               Fig
                 gure 1: Map
                           p of Chatha
                                     am-Kent/Laambton/Sarn
                                                         nia Region
                                                                                    Page | 9
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                              Juune 12, 2016

Electtricity supply
                  y for the Reegion is prov
                                          vided througgh a networkk of 230 kVV and 115 kVV
transmmission linees. The bulk k of the electrical suppply is transsmitted throough 230 kV
                                                                                         V
circuits (N21W, N22W, L24    4L, L26L, W44LC and W45LS) tow       wards Buchaanan TS. This
Regioon also con ntains a nummber of inteerconnectionns with neigghboring Michigan Statte
(B3NN, L4D and L51D)

Listed in Table 2 and shown n in Figure 2 are Hydro One transm
                                                             mission and transmissionn-
conneected custom
                mers’ assets in the Chath
                                        ham-Kent/Laambton/Sarnnia Region.

Tablee 2: Hydro One and custo
                            omer assets in Chatham-K
                                                   Kent/Lambtton/Sarnia Region

                                                          H
                                                          Hydro One                C
                                                                                   Customer
      115 kV Circcuits          230 kV Circu
                                           uits         T
                                                        Transformer              Trransformer
                                                           Stations                 Stations
 N1S, N4S, N6C, N7C, N6S, N7S, V41N,
                                 V                  Scott T
                                                          TS, Lambtonn TS,   Forest Jura HVDS,
 S2N
   N, N5K, K2Z       V43N
                        N, L23N, L27V,
                                 L                  Kent TS, Duart TS,            mer CTS
                                                                             Custom              #1,
                     L25V
                        V, L37G, L38G,
                                 L                  Modelland          TS,   Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #2,
                        C, L29C, C31,
                     L28C                           Wansttead TS, St.        Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #3,
                     W44LLC,    W4
                                 45LS,              Andreew            TS,   Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #4,
                     S47C
                        C, L24L, L26L,
                                 L                  Walla ceburg TS          Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #5,
                     N21W
                        W, N22W                                              Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #6,
                                                                             Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS        #7,
                                                                             Custom
                                                                                  mer CTS #8

                                                                                       Page | 10
Needs Assessment Rep
                   port - Chatham-Ken
                                    nt/Lambton/Sarniaa Region                                                                                    June 12, 20116

                                                                                                                                                                                    Leg
                                                                                                                                                                                      gend
                                                                              CTS #7                                                                                                            500 kV circuit        230 kV cirr cuit
                                                                                                                                                                                                115 kV circuit        Autotransfformer
                                                         CTS #4                                                                                                                          N.O.   Normally Open point   Study Are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ea

                                                                             N1S
                                                                                   N4S
                                                                                                         St Andrew TS                                  To Bruce
                                         CTS #8                   Scott TS

                                                                                                        C
                                                                                                              C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Buch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         hanan TS

                                                                                                       N6

                                                                                                                                                  B562L

                                                                                                                                                          B563L
                                                                                                              N7
                                                                 N6S
                            nsAlta Sarnia
                         Tran                                                            Modeland TS                                                                              Wond
                                                                                                                                                                                     derland TS
                                                                 N7S
                              CGS                                        N21W
Interc
     connection to
Michi gan U.S. B3N                                              V41N     N22W
                            St
                            S Clair Power                       V43N
                                CGS
                                                                 L23N

                                CTS #5
                                                                                                              Ongoing Project
                                CTS #1                                                                                                N
                                                                                                                                    S2N                                                           W2S
                                                      Nova
                                                         a SS
                                                                                                                                                                           N.O.
                                CTS #2
                                                                              N
                                                                              N5K                              W
                                                                                                               Wanstead TS        Forest                          CTS #6          Land
                                                                                                                                                                                     don Strathroy
                                                                                                                                       S
                                                                                                                                 Jura DS                                           CG
                                                                                                                                                                                    GS      TS
                                CTS #3                                                                                                                                                  Buchanan
                                                                L27V
                                                                                                                                                                                         DESN
                                                                L25V
                                                                L37G
                                                                                                                                                                                  W4 2L
                           Greenfield
                           G                                                               Wallaceburg TS
                                                                L38G
                          Energy Centre                                                                                                                                           W43 L
                                                                                                                                                                                           C
                                                                L51D                                                                                                               W44 L
Intercconnections                                               L4D                                                                                                                      5 LS
                                                                                   N.O.                                                                                              W 4
to Miichigan U .S.                                                                                     L24L
                                                                L28C
                                                                L29C                                   L26L

                                East Lake St.                                                                                                                              Edgeware TS
                               Clair Wind Farm                   Lambton TS                 K2Z
          To Lauzon TS
                                  GSPC CGS                                                                                      Longwood TS
                                    Kent TS                                                                                                                           N582L
                                                                                                                                                                                     To
                                                                                                                                                                                      o Nanticoke
                                     South
                                     Kent                        C31
                                                                                                                                        S
                                     Wind                                                                                          5L
                                                                                                                                 W4
                                     Farm                        C21J                    W44LC
                                                                 C22J                               Spence S S                              Duart TS
                                                                             S47
                                                                               7C
                                               To
                                             Lauzon              C23Z
                                               TS                C24Z
                                                                                eau Windfarm
                                                                             Erie                 Spence Windfarm

                                                                Chatham SS
                                                  Fig
                                                    gure 2: Single-L
                                                                   Line diagram – Chatham-Kent/Lambton/Saarnia Region

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Page | 11
Needss Assessment Report - Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reggion                            June 12, 2016

4       INPUTSS AND DATA

In orrder to connduct this Needs Asseessment, stuudy team participants provided thhe
follow
     wing inform
               mation to Hyd
                           dro One:

   LDCs provid  ded historiccal summer (2012 – 20014) as weell as summ          mer gross loaad
    fo
     orecast (2015
                 5 – 2024)
   IE
     ESO provideed:
    a..  Historiccal regional coincident peak load andd station nonn-coincidentt peak load
    b.   List of existing reliaability and operational isssues
    c..  Gas genneration assuumptions (Seee Table 3)
    d.   Conserv vation and Demand Management (CDM) andd Distributedd Generatioon
         (DG) daata
   Hydro One (T Transmission  n) provided transformer,, station andd circuit ratinngs
   Hydro One (T Transmission  n) provided existing reliability and operation isssues
   Any relevantt planning in nformation, including planned transsmission andd distributioon
    in
     nvestments are provided by Hydro One (Transm     mission) and LDCs

Tablee 3 : Gas-fireed generation
                               n output leveels assumed f or Needs Assessment

                                                   Maximu
                                                        um continuous
         Gas Gene
                erators in Chaatham‐
                                                    summmer outputs
         Kent/Lambton/Sarnia area
                                                         (MW)
 Greeenfield Energyy Centre                               1001
 TransAlta Sarnia                                         435
 St. Clair Power CG
                  GS                                      484
 Greeenfield South Power Corpo
                             oration (GSPC
                                         C)               283

Based d on the histtorical inform
                                mation provided, Chathaam-Kent/Lam mbton/Sarniia Region is a
summmer peaking region. As such, the Neeeds Assessm   ment was connducted baseed on summeer
peak load and sttudies condiitions. Furth her, as part o f Hydro One’s regularr sustainmennt
assessment, Wan  nstead TS has been identtified as reacching end-off-life and is scheduled foor
a com mplete statiion rebuild. Prior to laaunch of thhe Needs Assessment study, LDC        Cs
conneected to the existing Waanstead TS and Hydro One had com     mmitted to rebuilding thhe
existiing Wansteaad TS from the current 115 kV suppply to 230 kV supply. The project is
currently being assessed by    y the IESO as part its System Imppact Assessm     ment processs
(CAAA ID 2015-5    545). As su uch, the Neeeds Assessmment assumeed Wansteadd TS will be
conveerted to a 230 kV statiion. Please refer to Secction 6.3 forr more detaiils about this
conveersion projecct.

                                                                                      Page | 12
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                                 Juune 12, 2016

4.1 Load Foreca
              ast

Basedd on data provided by the study team, the suummer grosss coincidennt load in thhe
Regioon is expecteed to grow at an averagee rate of appproximately 1.3% annuallly from 20115
– 20224. Factoring
                 g in the contributions off CDM and DG, the sum    mmer net cooincident loaad
in thee Region is expected too grow at an average r ate of approoximately 0.2% annuallly
from 2015 – 2024 4.

Pleasse refer to Ap
                  ppendix A fo
                             or the load fforecasts utillized for thiss Needs Asseessment.

5 ASSESSME
         ENT MET
               THODOLO
                     OGY

The following meethodology and assumpttions are madde in this Neeeds Assessm
                                                                           ment:

1. The assessmeent is based on summer peak loads.
2. Load forecassts are proviided by the Region’s LDCs using historical 2015 summeer
   peak loads as reference points.
3. For the purpo   ose of Needs d Assessmen   nt, 2014 hisstorical load levels weree assumed foor
   trransmission connected in    ndustrial cusstomers throuughout the study period.
4. The historicaal peak loadss at Hydro One’s statioons are adjussted for extrreme weatheer
   coonditions according to Hydro One methodologyy.
5. The LDC’s lo    oad forecastt is translateed into load growth ratees and is appplied onto thhe
   historical, exttreme weather adjusted, reference pooints.
6. Accounting for (2), (3), (4), and (5       5) above, a gross load forecast annd a net loaad
   foorecast are developed. The gross load foreca st is used to develop a worst casse
   sccenario to iddentify needss. Where theere are issuess, the net forrecast, whichh accounts foor
   CDM and DG     G, is analyzeed to determiine if the neeeds can be deferred.
    A gross and net non         n-coincidentt peak loadd forecast was used to perform thhe
         analysis for sections 6.1.4
    A gross and net reg         gional coincident peak load forecaast was useed to perform      m
         the analyssis for sectio
                                ons 6.1.1 to 6.1.3, 6.2.1, 6.2.2 and 6.22.4
7. Review impaact of any on-going an         nd planned developmennt projects inn the Regioon
   du uring the stu
                  udy period.
8. Review and assess impaact of any critical/majoor elements planned/ideentified to be
   reeplaced at thhe end of their useful lifee such as trannsformers, cables, and sttations.
9. Station capaccity adequaccy is assesseed by compparing the non–coincideent peak loaad
   with the statio on’s normal planning su   upply capacitty by assum ming a 90% laagging poweer
   faactor for staations withou  ut low-voltaage capacitorr banks or ththe historical low voltagge
   power factor,, whichever is more con       nservative. Normal plannning supplyy capacity foor
   trransformer stations in th   his Region is determineed by the suummer 10 – Day Limiteed
   Time Rating (LTR).
                                                                                         Page | 13
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                             Juune 12, 2016

10. Transmission
               n adequacy assessment iss primarily based on the following crriteria:
     Regional load is set too the forecassted regionall coincident peak load.
     With all elements in service, thee system is to be capabble of suppllying forecast
       demand with equipm   ment loading g within conntinuous ratiings and vooltages withiin
       normal raange.
     With one element outt of service, the system i s to be capaable of suppllying forecast
       demand with circuit loading with  hin their longg term emerrgency (LTE  E) ratings annd
       transform
               mers within thheir 10 – Daay LTR.
     All voltag ges must be within pre and post coontingency ranges as peer the Ontariio
       Resource and Transm  mission Assesssment Criteeria (ORTAC   C).
     The systeem to meet load securitty criteria ass per the OR   RTAC, speccifically, witth
       one elemeent out of serrvice, no mo
                                         ore than 150 MW of loadd is lost by configurationn.
       With two o elements out of serviice, no morre than 600 MW of loaad is lost by
       configuraation.
     The systeem is capab  ble of meetiing the loadd restorationn timeframees as per thhe
       ORTAC.

6 RESULTS

  Thiis section summarizes the results of the Needs Assessm
                                                          ment in thee Chatham––
  Kennt/Lambton//Sarnia Region.

6.1     Transmisssion System
                           m Capacity Needs

6.1.1    230 kV and 115 kV Autotransfformers

The 230/115 kV autotransforrmers (Scottt TS) supplyying the Regiion are adeqquate over thhe
study
    y period for the loss of a single 230/1
                                          115 kV autottransformer in the Regioon.

6.1.2 230 kV Transmission
                        n Lines

The 230 kV circuits are adequate over the study peeriod for thee loss of a single 230 kV
                                                                                       V
circuit in the Reg
                 gion.

6.1.3 115 kV Transmission
                        n Lines

The 115 kV linees supplying g the Region  n are radiall single circcuit lines. These 115 kV
                                                                                          V
circuits have adeq
                 quate capaciity over the study periodd.

6.1.4 230 kV and 115 kV Connection Facilities

A staation capacity
                  y assessmen
                            nt was perforrmed over thhe study periiod for the 2330 kV and

                                                                                    Page | 14
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                                  Juune 12, 2016

115 kV transformmer stations in the Regio
                                        on using the summer stattion non- cooincident peaak
load forecasts.

Kent TS T3/T4 is forecastedd to exceed its 10 – Dayy LTR in 20016 based onn the net loaad
forecast (approximately 119%
                           % Summer 10 – Day LT  TR in 2016).

All thhe other TSs in the Chaatham-Kent//Lambton/Saarnia Regionn is forecastted to remaiin
withiin their norm
                 mal supply caapacity durin
                                          ng the study period.

6.2     System Reliability, Operation and Restorattion Review
                                                            w

6.2.1 Load Seccurity

Based d on the gro
                 oss regional coincident peak load forrecast, with all transmission facilitiees
in–seervice and co
                 oincident witth an outagee of the largeest local generation unitss, all facilitiees
are within appliccable ratingss. The largeest local genneration unitt is a 230 kV–connecteed
Green nfield Energ
                 gy Centre unit on the 2300 kV.

Based d on the gro oss regionall-coincident load forecaast, the loss of one elem ment will noot
resultt in load innterruption greater than n 150 MW by configuuration, by pplanned loaad
curtailment or by   y load rejecction. In addition, undeer these connditions, all facilities arre
withiin their appliicable ratings.

Based d on the grooss regional coincident load forecasst, the loss of two elem  ments will noot
resultt in load innterruption greater than n 600 MW by configuuration, by pplanned loaad
curtailment or by   y load rejecction. In addition, undeer these connditions, all facilities arre
withiin their appliicable ratings.

Thereefore, load security criteeria for the Region are met.

6.2.2 Load Resstoration

Basedd on the gross coinciident load forecast at Modeland TS, Wansttead TS annd
Wond derland TS, by the end of study perriod, the loadd interruptedd is expectedd to approacch
240 MW for the loss of doub   ble-circuit 230 kV line N21W and N22W. Pressently, N21W       W
can be sectionaliized and loaad can be restored from either Scottt TS or Bucchanan TS by
use of existing switches on N21W. Witth the switching capabiilities, magnnitude of loaad
loss can be reducced from thee peak level of over 2400 MW to lesss than 150 MW within 4
hourss. The remaiining load caan be resuppplied within t he 4-8 hourrs timeframee by means of
load transfers annd/or switch hing alternaate feeder suupplies to neighbouringg, unaffecteed
transfformer statiions. Hydroo One will continue too monitor load growthh at stationns

                                                                                         Page | 15
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                               Juune 12, 2016

conneected to N2
               21W/N22W and updatee the restorration plan on an ongooing basis as
appro
    opriate.

Based d on the assumed load levels for the transmisssion-conneccted industriial customerrs
conneected to N6  6S and N7S,, the load in nterrupted will exceed 150 MW foor the loss of
double-circuit 23 30kV line N6  6S and N7S.. Hydro Onee crews locaated in Sarniaa will be ablle
                    u
to reespond as quickly      as possible to restore loadd to meet thhe 4 hours and 8 hourrs
restorration criterria. It is thee customer’s accountabbility to enssure that thhere is onsitte
emergency supply for essentiial load or arrrange for baackup supplyy from otherr sources.

Thereefore, load reestoration crriteria for thee Region aree met.

6.2.3 Voltage Performancce

Undeer gross regiional coincident peak lo oad conditioons, post-coontingency voltage at a ll
transfformer statio
                  ons in the reg
                               gion meet Market Rule r equirements.

6.2.4 Bulk Pow
             wer System Performancce in the Reegion

Based d on the stuudy assumpttions listed in Section 4, no issue was identiffied for bulkk
poweer system in the Region. It is noted that, howeveer, there aree a number of large scale
comb bined-cycle gas plants in  n the Sarniaa-Lambton a rea and gass-fired generration outpuut
couldd vary depen nding on bro oader systemm conditions such as exppected load growth in the
proviince or availlability of otther generatiion resourcees. Moreoverr, as previouusly noted inn
Section 3.1, the Chatham-Keent/Lambton       n/Sarnia Reggion is connnected to thee US markeet
throu
    ugh interconn  nections in Sarnia and Lambton. Im   mport and expport generation levels onn
the in
     nterties havee a significan
                               nt impact on the bulk traansmission system. Recoognizing gass-
fired generation output and import/expo     ort levels aree important parameters for the bulkk
systemm performance for this Region, thee IESO migght undertakee further stuudy to assess
the bulk system adequacy un     nder differennt system coonditions. At the launchh of the saidd
studyy, Hydro One will work with the IES     SO and soliccit inputs froom other enttities such as
large transmission connected   d industrial cuustomers as required.

6.3     Aging Inffrastructuree and Repla
                                       acement Plaan of Majorr Equipment

Hydrro One reviewed the su   ustainment and developpment initiaatives that are currentlyy
plann
    ned for the replacemen  nt of any au utotransform
                                                    mers, power transformerrs and highh-
voltage cables. As mention  ned in earlieer section, the existingg Wanstead TS will bee
refurb
     bished, with
                h standard 50
                            0/66/83 MVA  A transformeers and is sccheduled to be completedd
in 20
    018. Prior to
                o launch of this study, th
                                         he LDCs connnecting to Wanstead TS and Hydroo
One had discussed and com  mmitted to converting t he station from 115 kV     V to 230 kV
                                                                                        V

                                                                                       Page | 16
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                            Juune 12, 2016

conneecting to 23
                30 kV circuuits N21W and N22W. The Needss Assessmennt study hadd
included this com
                mmitted projeect in the areea network s etup.

The following su   ustainment plans do no ot affect thee results of this Needs Assessmennt
study
    y, but are inccluded for co
                              ompleteness::
 The existing    g St Andrew ws TS will be refurbisshed with standard 50//66/83 MVA       A
    transformerss and is scheduled to be completed inn 2023.
 The existing   g Scott TS will be refurbbished, autottransformer T5 will be replaced likee-
    for-like withh a 250MVA  A unit and is scheduled too be completted in 2022.

7 RECOMM
       MENDATIO
              ONS

  Bassed on the findings of the Needs Assessment, t he study teeam agrees that Scopingg
  Asssessment is not required at this time..

  Forr thermal overload of transformer T3 at Kentt TS, considdering there is adequatee
  reg
    gional supplyy capacity to
                             o accommod date expectedd load growtth, it is the study team’ss
  recommendatio  on that no fu
                             urther region
                                         nal coordinaation is requuired. Furtheer, the studyy
  team
     m recommen   nds Hydro One transmission and thhe relevant distributors to develop a
  local plan (“Keent TS – T3 Capacity Limmitation”) foor this need.

8 REFEREN
        NCES

i) Planning Proccess Workin  ng Group (PPPWG) Reporrt to the Boaard: The Proccess for
    Regional Infrrastructure Planning in Ontario – Maay 17, 2013
ii) IE
     ESO Ontario o Resource and Transmisssion Assesssment Criterria (ORTAC)) – Issue 5.00

                                                                                    Page | 17
Needss Assessment Report - Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reggion                                June 12, 2016

APP
  PENDIX A: LOAD FORECAS
                       STS

As noted in Secction 5, consservation annd demand managementt (CDM) annd distributeed
generration (DG)) projects forecast
                             fo      info
                                        ormation proovided by the IESO were used to
determmine the neet load forecast. The fo
                                        orecasted CD  DM achieveement in thhe Chatham –
Kent// Lambton/S Sarnia area is summarizzed in Tablee 4 and it represents thhe percentagge
reducction applied
                 d to gross peak demand at each statioon.

Tablee 4 : CDM fo
                orecast for th
                             he Chatham- Kent/Lambtton/Sarnia Region

            2015     2016     201
                                17     2018     2019     20
                                                          020      2021    2022    2023       2024
  CDM
    M      0.96%    2.04%    2.74
                                4%    3.84%    4.86%    5.6
                                                          68%     6.25%   6.83%   7..22%     7.72%

The DG informattion shown in Table 5 and Table 6 reflects all generation contracts witth
the IESO in the Chatham – Kent/Lamb     bton/Sarnia area: FIT, microFIT and CHPSOP         P.
Furth
    her, the DG information represents th
                                        he cumulativve, effectivee capacity too meeting areea
peak demand.

                                                                                           Page | 18
Needs Assessment Rep
                   port - Chatham-Ken
                                    nt/Lambton/Sarniaa Region                                                                     June 12, 20116

Tab
  ble 5: Chatham-K
                 Kent/Lambton/S
                              Sarnia regional coincidental load
                                                              d forecast
                                                                   Historicall                                            Forecast
         Station                        Data                         2014         2015     2016     2017     2018     20199      2020     2021     2022     2023     20
                                                                                                                                                                      024
         Duart TS             Coincidental Gross Load                             14.66    14.87    15.09    15.30    15.52
                                                                                                                          2      15.74    15.97    16.20    16.43    16..66
         Duart TS                Coincidental CDM                                 0.14     0.30     0.41     0.59     0.75       0.89     1.00     1.11     1.19     1.229
         Duart TS                       DG                                        0.07     0.07     0.25     0.25     0.25       0.25     0.25     0.25     0.25     0.225
         Duart TS              Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                14.46        14.45    14.50    14.42    14.46    14.52
                                                                                                                          2      14.60    14.72    14.84    14.99    15..12
     Forest Jura DS           Coincidental Gross Load                             19.69    20.03    20.37    20.72    21.07
                                                                                                                          7      21.43    21.80    22.17    22.55    22..93
     Forest Jura DS              Coincidental CDM                                 0.19     0.41     0.56     0.80     1.02       1.22     1.36     1.51     1.63     1.777
     Forest Jura DS                     DG                                        0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02       0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02     0.002
     Forest Jura DS            Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                19.36        19.49    19.60    19.80    19.91    20.03
                                                                                                                          3      20.20    20.42    20.64    20.90    21..14
      Kent TS T1/T2           Coincidental Gross Load                             71.05    72.70    74.38    76.11    77.88
                                                                                                                          8      79.70    81.56    83.46    85.42    87..42
      Kent TS T1/T2              Coincidental CDM                                 0.68     1.48     2.04     2.92     3.78       4.53     5.10     5.70     6.16     6.775
      Kent TS T1/T2                     DG                                        0.53     1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20       1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20     1.220
      Kent TS T1/T2            Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                69.45        69.84    70.01    71.14    71.98    72.90
                                                                                                                          0      73.96    75.25    76.56    78.05    79..47
      Kent TS T3/T4           Coincidental Gross Load                             40.82    41.72    42.64    43.58    44.55
                                                                                                                          5      45.54    46.56    47.60    48.67    49..76
      Kent TS T3/T4              Coincidental CDM                                 0.39     0.85     1.17     1.67     2.16       2.59     2.91     3.25     3.51     3.884
      Kent TS T3/T4                     DG                                        0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16       0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.116
      Kent TS T3/T4            Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                39.95        40.27    40.71    41.31    41.75    42.23
                                                                                                                          3      42.79    43.49    44.19    45.00    45..76
       Lambton TS             Coincidental Gross Load                             62.25    62.87    63.49    64.12    64.76
                                                                                                                          6      65.40    66.05    66.70    67.36    68..03
       Lambton TS                Coincidental CDM                                 0.60     1.28     1.74     2.46     3.14       3.72     4.13     4.55     4.86     5.225
       Lambton TS                       DG                                        0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00       0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.000
       Lambton TS              Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                61.64        61.66    61.59    61.75    61.66    61.61
                                                                                                                          1      61.68    61.92    62.15    62.50    62..78
      Modeland TS             Coincidental Gross Load                             82.93    83.27    83.61    83.96    84.30
                                                                                                                          0      84.65    84.99    85.34    85.69    86..04
      Modeland TS                Coincidental CDM                                 0.80     1.70     2.29     3.22     4.09       4.81     5.32     5.82     6.18     6.664
      Modeland TS                       DG                                        0.02     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16       0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.116
      Modeland TS              Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                82.59        82.11    81.41    81.16    80.57    80.05
                                                                                                                          5      79.67    79.52    79.36    79.35    79..24
     St. Andrews TS           Coincidental Gross Load                             63.59    63.59    63.59    63.59    63.59
                                                                                                                          9      63.59    63.59    63.59    63.59    63..59
     St. Andrews TS              Coincidental CDM                                 0.61     1.30     1.74     2.44     3.09       3.61     3.98     4.34     4.59     4.991
     St. Andrews TS                     DG                                        0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01       0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01     0.001
     St. Andrews TS            Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                63.59        62.98    62.29    61.84    61.14    60.50
                                                                                                                          0      59.97    59.61    59.25    59.00    58..68
     Wallaceburg TS           Coincidental Gross Load                             27.67    28.32    28.97    29.65    30.34
                                                                                                                          4      31.04    31.76    32.50    33.25    34..03
     Wallaceburg TS              Coincidental CDM                                 0.27     0.58     0.79     1.14     1.47       1.76     1.99     2.22     2.40     2.663
     Wallaceburg TS                     DG                                        0.43     0.94     0.94     0.94     0.94       6.09     6.09     6.09     6.09     6.009
     Wallaceburg TS            Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                27.05        26.98    26.80    27.24    27.57    27.93
                                                                                                                          3      23.18    23.68    24.19    24.76    25..31
      Wanstead TS             Coincidental Gross Load                             28.70    29.17    29.65    30.14    30.63
                                                                                                                          3      31.13    31.64    32.16    32.69    33..22
      Wanstead TS                Coincidental CDM                                 0.28     0.60     0.81     1.16     1.49       1.77     1.98     2.20     2.36     2.556
      Wanstead TS                       DG                                        0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38       0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38     0.338
      Wanstead TS              Coincidental Ne
                                             e t Load                28.24        28.05    28.20    28.46    28.60    28.76
                                                                                                                          6      28.98    29.28    29.59    29.95    30..28
          CTS #1      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     7.94         7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94       7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94     7.994
          CTS #2      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     20.82        20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82
                                                                                                                          2      20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82    20..82
          CTS #3      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     29.00        29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00
                                                                                                                          0      29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00    29..00
          CTS #4      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer    112.95       112.95   112.95   112.95   112.95   112.955    112.95   112.95   112.95   112.95   112
                                                                                                                                                                      2.95
          CTS #5      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     30.89        30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89
                                                                                                                          9      30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89    30..89
          CTS #6      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     2.47         2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47       2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47     2.447
          CTS #7      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     53.89        53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89
                                                                                                                          9      53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89    53..89
          CTS #8      Transmission Connected Industrial Customer     46.71        46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71
                                                                                                                          1      46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71    46..71

                                                                                                                                                                              Page | 19
Needs Assessment Rep
                   port – Chatham-Keent/Lambton/Sarniaa Region                                                                      June 12, 2 016

Tab
  ble 6 : Chatham--Kent/Lambton//Sarnia regional non-coincidenta
                                                               al load forecast
                                                                    Historica
                                                                            al                                            Forecast
          Station                      Data                           2014        2015     2016     2017     2018     2019       2020     2021     2022     2023     2024
          Duart TS          Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          18.26    18.55    18.72    18.97    19.3
                                                                                                                         33      19.69    19.94    20.19    20.43    20.68
          Duart TS            Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.18     0.38     0.51     0.73     0.94
                                                                                                                         4       1.12     1.25     1.38     1.47     1.60
          Duart TS                      DG                                        0.07     0.07     0.25     0.25     0.25
                                                                                                                         5       0.25     0.25     0.25     0.25     0.25
          Duart TS           Non‐coincidental Net Load                14.46       18.01    18.10    17.96    17.99    18.1
                                                                                                                         14      18.32    18.44    18.56    18.71    18.83
      Forest Jura DS        Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          22.58    23.05    23.29    23.70    24.1
                                                                                                                         19      24.75    25.09    25.50    25.82    26.22
      Forest Jura DS          Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.22     0.47     0.64     0.91     1.17
                                                                                                                         7       1.41     1.57     1.74     1.86     2.02
      Forest Jura DS                    DG                                        0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02
                                                                                                                         2       0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02     0.02
      Forest Jura DS         Non‐coincidental Net Load                19.36       22.35    22.56    22.63    22.77    23.0
                                                                                                                         00      23.33    23.51    23.75    23.94    24
                                                                                                                                                                      4.18
       Kent TS T1/T2        Non‐coincidental G ross Load                         107.57   114.81   117.04   119.46   122.1
                                                                                                                         16     124.89   127.48   130.10   132.77   13
                                                                                                                                                                     35.49
       Kent TS T1/T2          Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              1.03     2.34     3.21     4.59     5.93
                                                                                                                         3       7.10     7.97     8.88     9.58     10.46
       Kent TS T1/T2                    DG                                        0.53     1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20
                                                                                                                         0       1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20
       Kent TS T1/T2         Non‐coincidental Net Load                69.45      106.00   111.26   112.63   113.66   115.0
                                                                                                                         02     116.58   118.30   120.02   121.98   12
                                                                                                                                                                     23.83
       Kent TS T3/T4        Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          61.87    65.59    66.79    68.11    69.6
                                                                                                                         62      71.14    72.55    73.98    75.42    76.90
       Kent TS T3/T4          Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.59     1.34     1.83     2.62     3.38
                                                                                                                         8       4.04     4.54     5.05     5.44     5.93
       Kent TS T3/T4                    DG                                        0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16
                                                                                                                         6       0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16
       Kent TS T3/T4         Non‐coincidental Net Load                39.95       61.11    64.08    64.80    65.33    66.0
                                                                                                                         08      66.93    67.85    68.76    69.82    70.81
        Lambton TS          Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          71.39    72.21    72.55    73.18    74.2
                                                                                                                         29      75.37    76.00    76.60    77.15    77.72
        Lambton TS            Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.69     1.47     1.99     2.81     3.61
                                                                                                                         1       4.28     4.75     5.23     5.57     6.00
        Lambton TS                      DG                                        0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
                                                                                                                         0       0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
        Lambton TS           Non‐coincidental Net Load                61.64       70.71    70.73    70.56    70.37    70.6
                                                                                                                         68      71.09    71.25    71.37    71.59    71.72
       Modeland TS          Non‐coincidental G ross Load                         100.71   101.71   102.71   103.71   104.7
                                                                                                                         71     104.71   104.71   104.71   104.71   10
                                                                                                                                                                     04.71
       Modeland TS            Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.97     2.08     2.81     3.98     5.08
                                                                                                                         8       5.95     6.55     7.15     7.56     8.08
       Modeland TS                      DG                                        0.02     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16
                                                                                                                         6       0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16     0.16
       Modeland TS           Non‐coincidental Net Load                82.59       99.72    99.48    99.74    99.57    99.4
                                                                                                                         47      98.60    98.00    97.40    97.00    96.47
      St. Andrews TS        Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          62.74    62.74    62.74    62.74    62.7
                                                                                                                         74      62.74    62.74    62.74    62.74    62.74
      St. Andrews TS          Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.60     1.28     1.72     2.41     3.05
                                                                                                                         5       3.57     3.92     4.28     4.53     4.84
      St. Andrews TS                    DG                                        0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01
                                                                                                                         1       0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01     0.01
      St. Andrews TS         Non‐coincidental Net Load                63.59       62.13    61.46    61.02    60.33    59.6
                                                                                                                         69      59.17    58.81    58.45    58.21    57.90
      Wallaceburg TS        Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          41.86    42.84    43.86    44.80    45.8
                                                                                                                         82      46.95    48.10    49.19    50.28    51.40
      Wallaceburg TS          Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.40     0.87     1.20     1.72     2.23
                                                                                                                         3       2.67     3.01     3.36     3.63     3.97
      Wallaceburg TS                    DG                                        0.43     0.94     0.94     0.94     0.94
                                                                                                                         4       6.09     6.09     6.09     6.09     6.09
      Wallaceburg TS         Non‐coincidental Net Load                27.05       41.04    41.03    41.72    42.15    42.6
                                                                                                                         66      38.19    39.00    39.74    40.56    41.34
       Wanstead TS          Non‐coincidental G ross Load                          34.10    34.68    35.29    35.68    36.2
                                                                                                                         22      36.99    37.75    38.30    38.83    39.34
       Wanstead TS            Non‐coincidenta al CDM                              0.33     0.71     0.97     1.37     1.76
                                                                                                                         6       2.10     2.36     2.61     2.80     3.04
       Wanstead TS                      DG                                        0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38
                                                                                                                         8       0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38     0.38
       Wanstead TS           Non‐coincidental Net Load                28.24       33.40    33.59    33.95    33.94    34.0
                                                                                                                         08      34.51    35.01    35.31    35.65    35.93
           CTS #1      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     7.94        7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94
                                                                                                                         4       7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94     7.94
           CTS #2      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     20.82       20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82    20.8
                                                                                                                         82      20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82    20.82
           CTS #3      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     29.00       29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00    29.0
                                                                                                                         00      29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00    29.00
           CTS #4      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer    112.95      112.95   112.95   112.95   112.95   112.9
                                                                                                                         95     112.95   112.95   112.95   112.95   11
                                                                                                                                                                     12.95
           CTS #5      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     30.89       30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89    30.8
                                                                                                                         89      30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89    30.89
           CTS #6      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     2.47        2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47
                                                                                                                         7       2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47     2.47
           CTS #7      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     53.89       53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89    53.8
                                                                                                                         89      53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89    53.89
           CTS #8      Transmission Connected Ind
                                                dustrial Customer     46.71       46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71    46.7
                                                                                                                         71      46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71    46.71

                                                                                                                                                                             Page | 20
Needss Assessment Report - Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reggion                            June 12, 2016

APP
  PENDIX B: KEY TERMS AND
                        D DEFINIITIONS

Key terms and deefinitions asssociated with
                                          h this Needss Assessmennt are cited here.

Norm
   mal Supply Capacity
The maximum lo                          quipment maay be subjeccted to conttinuously
                oading that electrical eq
underr nominal ambient condditions suchh that no acccelerated losss of equipm
                                                                            ment life
would be expecteed.

Coincident Peak k Load
The electricity demand at in ndividual faccilities at thhe same poinnt in time when the
total demand of the region orr system is att its maximuum.

Conttingency
The prevalence of abnormal conditions such that ellements of thhe power syystem are
not av
     vailable.

Consservation an
               nd Demand Managemeent (CDM)
Progrrams aimed at using mo   ore of one ty
                                          ype of energgy efficientlyy to replace an inefficiennt
use of another to
                o reduce ov   verall energy
                                          y use, and i nfluencing the amount or timing of
custo
    omers’ use off electricity.

Distrributed Genneration (DG  G)
Electtric power generation equipment that suppliess energy too nearby cuustomers witth
generration capaciity typically ranging from
                                           m a few kW
                                                    W to 25 MW.

Grosss Load
Amou  unt of electtricity that must be gen
                                         nerated to meet all custtomers’ needds as well as
delivery losses, not considerring any gen neration inittiatives suchh as CDM and DG. It is
usuallly expressedd in MW or MVA.

Limiited Time Rating (LTR R)
A hig
    gher than nam
                meplate ratin
                            ng that a tran
                                         nsformer cann tolerate forr a short period of time

Loadd Forecast
Prediiction of the load or dem
                             mand customeers will makke on the elecctricity systeem

                                                                                      Page | 21
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                          Juune 12, 2016

Net Load
Net of generation
                n (e.g. CDM and DG) deeducted from
                                                 m the Gross load

Non--Coincident Peak Load   d
The maximum electricity deemand at an individual facility. Unnlike the coinncident peakk,
non-ccoincident peeaks may occcur at differrent times foor different fa
                                                                     facilities.

Peak k Load
The maximum lo   oad consumeed or producced by a uniit or group of units in a stated periood
of tim
     me. It may be the maxim  mum instantaaneous load or the maxim
                                                                 mum averagge load over a
desiggnated interv
                 val of time.

Weatther Correccted Data
Loadd data that is adjusted to account for extreme weeather condittions using an adjustmennt
factorr.

                                                                                  Page | 22
Needss Assessment Report – Chathaam-Kent/Lamb
                                            bton/Sarnia Reegion                  Juune 12, 2016

APP
  PENDIX C: ACRON
                NYMS

BES             Buulk Electric System
BPS             Buulk Power Syystem
CDMM            Coonservation and Demand    d Managemeent
CIA             Cuustomer Imp pact Assessm ment
CGS             Cuustomer Gen nerating Stattion
CTS             Cuustomer Tran nsformer Staation
DESNN           Du ual Element Spot Netwo  ork
DG              Diistributed Geeneration
DSC             Diistribution System Codee
GTAA            Grreater Toronnto Area
IESO
   O            In
                 ndependent Electricity Sy  ystem Operaator
IRRPP           In
                 ntegrated Reg gional Resou urce Planninng
kV              Kiilovolt
LDC             Loocal Distribu
                              ution Compaany
LTR             Liimited Time Rating
LV              Loow-voltage
MW              Megawatt
MVA A           Mega Volt-Am   mpere
NA              Neeeds Assessm ment
NERC            No orth American Electric Reliability Corporation
NGS             Nu uclear Generrating Statio
                                           on
NPCCC           No ortheast Pow
                              wer Coordinaating Counciil Inc.
OEB             On ntario Energ
                              gy Board
ORTA AC         On ntario Resou
                              urce and Traansmission Assessment Criteria
PF              Po
                 ower Factor
PPW
  WG            Pllanning Proccess Working  g Group
RIP             Reegional Infraastructure Pllanning
SIA             Sy
                 ystem Impacct Assessmen    nt
SS              Sw
                 witching Staation
TS              Trransformer Station
TSC             Trransmission System Cod   de
ULTCC           Un nder Load Tap Changer

                                                                           Page | 23
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