Municipal Bond Market Monitor - Q1 2022 - Eaton Vance
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Q1 2022 Municipal Bond Market Monitor MUNICIPAL BOND GROUP
2 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Q1 2022 Municipal Market Overview
Volatility was the theme for markets as investors balanced inflationary pressures, the war in Ukraine and policy statements from the
Federal Reserve.
The Fed raised rates 25bps in March and Chair Powell’s comment that “the labor market is tight to an unhealthy level” makes a
50bps hike in May and June highly likely.
High quality muni returns were deeply negative across the curve and the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index experienced its worst
quarterly performance since Q3 1981.
Following record muni mutual fund inflows in 2021, the market experienced 12 consecutive weeks of outflows.
After trading rich throughout 2021, Muni/treasury ratios cheapened significantly across the curve.
Municipal upgrades have outpaced downgrades as overall credit quality has been bolstered by significant federal support, strong
GDP growth and a replenishment of State rainy day funds.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of report for important additional information. This commentary may contain statements that are not historical facts,
referred to as "forward looking statements". Actual future results may differ significantly from those stated in any forward-looking statement, depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general
economic conditions.
3 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Municipal Yield Changes
Major Asset Class Returns
Volatility was the theme for markets as investors balanced 30%
28.7% Q1 2022 2021
inflationary pressures, the war in Ukraine and policy statements
20%
from the Federal Reserve.
10%
5.4% 5.2%
1.5%
The Fed raised the fed funds rate 25bps in March and Chairman
0%
-0.1%
Powell indicated a willingness to raise the rate 50bps in both May -1.0% -2.3%
-4.5% -6.2% -5.6%
-10% -4.6% -7.7%
and June.
S&P 500 High Yield Bank Loan Municipal Corporate Treasury
In March, 2-year treasury yields jumped 86bps, while 30-year
yields increased 27bps. Year-to-date, treasury yields have risen AAA Municipal Yields (%)
56-156bps across the curve. 3%
12/31/21 3/312022 2.53%
2.32%
2.18%
2.04%
In Q1, the municipal market displayed similar volatility with yields 2%
1.97%
1.76%
up 104-152bps across the curve. 1.49%
1.15%
1.03%
1% 0.87%
0.59%
0.24%
0%
2 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 15 yr 30 yr
Source: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters as of 3/31/22. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of report for important additional information. *Basis points
(BPS) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1% and is used to denote the change in a financial instrument.
4 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Index Returns
Index Returns
10% Q1 2022 2021
High quality muni returns were deeply negative across the curve. The 7.8%
8%
-6.23% return for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index marked the 6%
4% 3.2% 1.5%
worst quarterly performance since Q3 1981 (-9.69%). 2% 1.0%
0.3%
0%
-2%
As expected, lower quality BBB’s and high yield municipals -4%
-6%
underperformed, down -7.13% and -6.53%, respectively. -5.1% -6.2% -6.2% -6.5%
-8%
-10% -8.7%
5 yr 10 yr 22+ yr Bloomberg Bloomberg
Municipal Bond Municipal HY
Index Index
High Yield Index vs AAA Index Yield to Worst Spread
Despite the persistent volatility and municipal outflow pressures, high 8.00
yield spreads did not widen meaningfully during the quarter – a 7.00
reflection of the strong state of municipal credit quality. 6.00
Percent (%)
5.00
4.00
Average
While spreads remain tight from a historical perspective, with the
3.00
significant sell-off in the first quarter, absolute yields are much more 2.00
attractive than the start the year. 1.00
0.00
Source: Bloomberg, MMA and Morningstar Direct as of 3/31/22. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance less than one year is cumulative. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of
report for important additional information.5 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Flows and Issuance
Muni Mutual Fund Flows
6% 15
Total Flows AAA GO 30 yr
5% 10
After record inflows in 2021, the market experienced 12
4% 5
Flows (Billions)
consecutive weeks of outflows or -$21.9 billion cumulatively
Yield (%)
3% 0
according to Lipper.
2% -5
1% -10
After a record $23 billion of fund flows into muni high yield funds in
0% -15
2021, a total of $5.2 billion left high yield muni funds.
-1% -20
Municipal Bond Issuance: New vs. Refunding
Municipal issuance finished the quarter at $98.3 billion compared
500 Refunding
to $113 billion in Q1 2021. New money issuance was up ~3% 450 New
while refunding deals were down 44%. 400
350
Issuance (Billions) 300
Taxable municipal issuance fell 42% and finished the quarter at
250
$15.8 billion. This large decline is due to the drop-off in advance 200
refunding deals as rates moved significantly higher. 150
100
50
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Sifma, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data. Date Range: March 2007 – March 2021.
Flow data provided by ICI. Municipal Bond Issuance data from SIFMA, Bloomberg Barclays Research. Private placement issuance counted as new capital.6 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Muni-to-Treasury Yield Ratios
AAA Muni-to-Treasury Yield Ratios (%)
350%
Muni/treasury ratios cheapened significantly across the curve 300%
5Y 10Y 30Y
during the quarter. 250%
200%
150%
For the quarter, the 5 year muni/treasury ratio cheapened from 103%
100% 94%
47% to 81%, the 10 year ratio cheapened from 68% to 94% and 81%
50%
the 30 year ratio jumped to 103% from 79%.
0%
How Attractive Are Muni/Treasury Ratios vs. 10 Year History
Ratios have been Higher Ratios have been Lower
100%
Over the last 10 years, the 5-year, 10-year and 30-year
90%
muni/Treasury ratios have been higher (cheaper) approximately 80%
36%, 39% and 28% of the time, respectively. 70%
60% 64% 61%
72%
50%
This indicates that AAA-rated municipals across the curve ended 40%
30% 36% 39% 28%
the quarter cheap relative to treasuries.
20%
10%
0%
5Y 10Y 30Y
Source: Thomson Reuters as of 3/31/22.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of report for important additional information.7 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Municipal Yield Curve
2-Year / 30-Year Curve
500
The municipal yield curve bear flattened 48bps as 2-year yields
jumped 152bps while 30-year yields increased 104bps. 400 2-30
300
The treasury curve experienced a more significant flattening as the 200
2-year yield increased 156bps while the 30-year yield increased
100
56bps.
0
We would expect this trend to continue as the Fed has committed
to additional rate hikes in the coming months.
5-Year / 15-Year Curve
250
The five-to-fifteen year portion of the muni curve also flattened as 5-
5-15
200
year yields increased 138bps while 15-year yields increased 117bps.
150
At the end of the quarter, an investor picks up 78% of the yield
100
available by going out 5 years and 92% by going out 15 years.
50
-
Source: Thomson Reuters as of 3/31/22. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of report for important additional information.8 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Municipal Yield Curve
Percentage of Entire Municipal Yield Curve
Captured by 2-year Municipal Bond
Following its 25bps hike at the March meeting, the Fed's "dot plot"
70%
anticipates 7 additional rate hikes in ’22. 61% 59%
50%
40%
In our view, Chair Powell’s comment following the March FOMC
decision that “the labor market is tight to an unhealthy level” makes 26%
19%
16%
a 50bps hike in May and June a near certainty. 9% 11% 8% 11% 8% 11%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1
2022
SIFMA, LIBOR and Fed Funds Yield (%)
The SIFMA* Index increased 40bps and ended Q1 at 0.51%.
6.00%
As a result of the Fed’s more hawkish stance, the SIFMA* Index 5.00% SIFMA
will continue to move higher making VRDNs and Muni Floating 4.00%
1-Month LIBOR
Yield (%)
Rate Notes increasingly attractive as 2022 progresses. Fed Funds Rate
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Source: Thomson Reuters, Federal Reserve as of 3/31/22.
*SIFMA is a seven-day high grade money market index comprised of tax-exempt variable rate demand obligations.9 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Overview of legislation and municipal related spending in relief bills
Below is a high level summary of the fiscal support for municipals through the most recent pieces of legislation passed by Congress.
In aggregate, over $1.7 trillion of capital has been allocated to various parts of the municipal bond market.
2021 Infrastructure American Rescue Dec. Federal
CARES Act
Bill Plan Stimulus
Total Muni Market Support $550 $650 $157 $347
States $136 $408 $30 $169
Locals -- $182 $30 $164
Community based orgs. -- -- -- $1
Not for Profits -- $0.8 $15 --
Healthcare -- $13 $4 $108
Primary/Sec Education -- $137 $58 $25
Higher education -- $40 $26 $17
Airports/Ports $42 $11 $2 $10
Surface transit $110 -- $10 --
Mass transit $39 $30 $14 $25
Other Transportation $78 $2 $2 --
Housing -- $39 $25 --
Utilities $143 -- -- --
Source: US Congress, J.P Morgan. Note: Sum of individual sector amounts may not add up to aggregate total due to double counting, as much of the capital is shared across sectors10 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
State Revenues Surged in Calendar Year 2021
Calendar year 2021 tax receipts are up on average 18.6% vs 2020 and 16.6% vs 2019
Source: Individual state monthly tax reports, J.P. Morgan. Note: Oregon, Wyoming, and Alaska do not provide monthly tax data. Bars in gray
indicate December data is not yet available and YTD period has been adjusted11 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
States Prudently Building Reserves and Liquidity
Rainy day fund balances are expected to represent 10.4% of general fund expenditure in 2022 while total fund balances
are expected to be 16.5% of expenditures.
Source: National Association of State Budget
Officers12 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Increase in Upgrades Due to Strong Credit Environment
Upgrades have outpaced downgrades as overall credit quality has been bolstered by significant federal support, an
improving vaccination rate and strong GDP growth.
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, J.P. Morgan. Gray shaded area indicates recessionary period (data not available prior to 1Q02)13 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Municipal Default Overview
Number of Unique Annual Defaults Number of Unique Annual Defaults
100 Decreased by 26%
160
90
140 80
Number of unique defaults
Number of unique defaults
120 70
100 Puerto Rico US - ex PR 60
80 50
60 40
40 30
20
20
10
0
0
201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 YTD
2020 2021
2022
Dollar Value of Annual Defaults ($Billions)
Dollar Value of Annual Defaults ($Billions) decreased by 51%
40 8
Dollar value of defaults (Billions)
Dollar value of defaults (Billions)
35 7
30 Puerto Rico US -ex PR 6
25
5
20
15 4
10 3
5 2
0
1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
2022 0
2020 2021
Source: MMA. Default data as of 3/31/202214 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Taxable Equivalent Yields
Taxes are not heading lower. Assuming the highest tax bracket on federal income, municipal taxable-equivalent yields remain attractive
relative to other fixed income asset classes.
4.81256
Taxable Equivalent Yields
9%
8% Tax-Equivalent Yield Nominal Yield 7.77%
7%
6%
5% 4.39%
4%
3%
4.60%
2%
3.60%
2.92% 2.60%
1%
0%
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index Bloomberg US IG Corporate Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index Bloomberg HY Muni Bond Index
Sources: Barclays Live as of 3/31/22, Tax Policy Center. This table is for illustrative purposes only and uses the highest current applicable federal tax rates plus 3.8% health care tax. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. See end of report for important additional information.15 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022 Municipal Market Outlook Treasury and municipal volatility is likely to persist, with markets adapting to changes in global central bank policy, evolving geopolitical tensions and emerging economic data. However, as rates have increased to levels not seen in years and valuations have cheapened; we believe that today’s environment could prove worthwhile for adding to municipal exposure particularly for long-term focused investors. Though high yield municipal spreads remain tight from a historical perspective, absolute yields are significantly higher than where they started the year and we are beginning to see some value and opportunities in this part of the market. With the Fed expected to increase rates 100bps in Q2 and with the ability to capture almost 80% of the yield curve by going out 5 years, short and ultra-short duration strategies are particularly attractive for defensive minded investors. The municipal bond market is strong from a credit standpoint, as state liquidity and tax revenue reached an all-time high last year. From both a total dollar value and unique number perspective, we expect municipal defaults to remain low in 2022.
Appendix
17 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022 Investing with a Leader in Municipal Bonds Eaton Vance is a premier municipal bond manager Among the largest and deepest municipal investment teams in the U.S. Consistent, bottom-up investment process and proven track record One of the broadest selections of muni solutions Mutual funds, closed-end funds and separate accounts Customizable solutions engineered for special investment situations Legacy of managing for tax-exempt income and total return
18 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Eaton Vance Municipal Investment Process
Team-oriented, research-based process with qualitative and quantitative overlays
The The
Opportunity Process
Credit
1100 Loans Research The Result
$3.8 Trillion Relative
Broad
Municipal
Municipal Value
Investing
Product
Offerings
Market
Market Surveillance Bottom-up Analysis and Selection
Internal risk rating Issuer relative ranking Market valuation Collaborative decision making Risk management Portfolio
Investment Issuer specific Relative industry valuations Portfolio managers Product specific Credit names
universe fundamental analysis Technical analysis Credit analysts guidelines
Relative value Determine liquidity and Traders Best portfolio within
rankings within price trends guidelines
industries
Fundamental trends
Bottom-up industry review19 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Important information and disclosure
Additional information
Debt, Pension and OPEB Liabilities as a % of GDP INDEX DEFINITIONS:
Debt is net tax supported debt from Moody’s May 2014. Unfunded pension Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index of municipal
liabilities from State CAFRs as of June 30, 2013. States’ share of estimated bonds traded in the U.S.
pension liabilities are based upon the states’ share of the total state and local
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index is an unmanaged index of domestic
liabilities as per Moody’s “US State Pension Medians Increase in Fiscal 2012”
investment-grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-
(January 2014) and Eaton Vance assumptions. GDP from the Bureau of
backed securities.
Economic Analysis 2013 advanced estimates. State’s pension plan discount
rates from 2013 State CAFRs. Eaton Vance then applied a 5.5% discount rate Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index measures USD-denominated,
to pension liabilities, based on Moody’s Adjustments to US State and Local non-investment grade corporate securities.
Government Reported Pension Data, July 2, 2012, where for each 1%
difference between 5.5% and a plan’s discount rate, the actuarial accrued Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index is an unmanaged index that measures the
liability increased by 13%. OPEB liabilities from State CAFRs. Importantly, the performance of investment-grade corporate securities within the Barclays
states’ unfunded OPEB liability has not been adjusted for the states’ share of Capital U.S. Aggregate Index.
the total state and local OPEB liability, which could result in the states’ OPEB S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index is an unmanaged index of the institutional
liability being overstated. leveraged loan market.
Terms
Municipal-to-Treasury Yield Ratios are relative value indicators that measure
the richness or cheapness of Municipal bond yields to comparable maturity
Treasury bond yields.
Yield to Worst is a measure which reflects the lowest potential yield earned on
a bond without the issuer defaulting. The yield to worst is calculated by making
worst-case scenario assumptions by calculating the returns that would be
received if provisions, including prepayment, call or sinking fund, are used by
the issuer.20 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022 Important information and disclosure ABOUT ASSET CLASS COMPARISONS: Elements of this report include comparisons of different asset classes, each of which has distinct risk and return characteristics. Every investment carries risk, and principal values and performance will fluctuate with all asset classes shown, sometimes substantially. Asset classes shown are not insured by the FDIC and are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by, any depository institution. All asset classes shown are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal invested. The principal risks involved with investing in the asset classes shown are interest-rate risk, credit risk and liquidity risk, with each asset class shown offering a distinct combination of these risks. Generally, considered along a spectrum of risks and return potential, U.S. Treasury securities (which are guaranteed as to the payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government) offer lower credit risk, higher levels of liquidity, higher interest-rate risk and lower return potential, whereas asset classes such as high-yield corporate bonds and emerging market bonds offer higher credit risk, lower levels of liquidity, lower interest-rate risk and higher return potential. Other asset classes shown carry different levels of each of these risk and return characteristics, and as a result generally fall varying degrees along the risk/return spectrum. Costs and expenses associated with investing in asset classes shown will vary, sometimes substantially, depending upon specific investment vehicles chosen. No investment in the asset classes shown is insured or guaranteed, unless explicitly stated for a specific investment vehicle. Interest income earned on asset classes shown is subject to ordinary federal, state and local income taxes, excepting U.S. Treasury securities (exempt from state and local income taxes) and municipal securities (exempt from federal income taxes, with certain securities exempt from federal, state and local income taxes). In addition, federal and/or state capital gains taxes may apply to investments that are sold at a profit. Eaton Vance does not provide tax or legal advice. Prospective investors should consult with a tax or legal advisor before making any investment decision. Credit ratings that may be referenced are based on Moody's, S&P or Fitch, as applicable. Credit ratings are based largely on the rating agency's investment analysis at the time of rating and the rating assigned to any particular security is not necessarily a reflection of the issuer's current financial condition. The rating assigned to a security by a rating agency does not necessarily reflect its assessment of the volatility of a security's market value or of the liquidity of an investment in the security. Ratings of BBB or higher by Standard and Poor's or Fitch (Baa or higher by Moody's) are considered to be investment grade quality. About Risk An imbalance in supply and demand in the municipal market may result in valuation uncertainties and greater volatility, less liquidity, widening credit spreads and a lack of price transparency in the market. There generally is limited public information about municipal issuers. Investments in income securities may be affected by changes in the creditworthiness of the issuer and are subject to the risk of non-payment of principal and interest. The value of income securities also may decline because of real or perceived concerns about the issuer’s ability to make principal and interest payments. As interest rates rise, the value of certain income investments is likely to decline. Investments involving higher risk do not necessarily mean higher return potential. Diversification cannot ensure a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. Debt securities are subject to risks that the issuer will not meet its payment obligations. Low rated or equivalent unrated debt securities of the type in which a strategy will invest generally offer a higher return than higher rated debt securities, but also are subject to greater risks that the issuer will default. Unrated bonds are generally regarded as being speculative.
21 Municipal Bond Market Monitor | Q1 2022
Important information and disclosure
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About Eaton Vance
Eaton Vance is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley. It provides advanced investment strategies and wealth management solutions to
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@2021 Eaton Vance Management 15337 4.8.22
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