THE PRIME CENTRAL LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKET - SAMPLE DELIVERABLE - ROCSEARCH
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Sample Deliverable The Prime Central London Residential Market © RocSearch. All Rights Reserved.
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Executive Summary
Executive Summary
➢ The Prime Central London (“PCL”) residential market has attracted considerable investor interest due to its defensive characteristics, on account of its unique supply-demand
profile and London’s growing prominence as the world’s financial nerve centre. The following factors and resulting trends indicate this market’s continued importance going
forward:
✓ An acute supply-demand imbalance prevalent in the PCL market, due to tight planning restrictions and growing overseas investor appetite for London property assets
has resulted in sustained capital value growth, outpacing that in other prime residential locations in Paris, Dubai, Moscow, Shanghai and Mumbai
✓ PCL outperformed not only other property sub-sectors in the long run, but also delivered higher returns compared to other asset classes such as equities, commodities
and fixed income, resulting in higher fund inflows, particularly from overseas investors
✓ London’s reputation as a global financial hub with world-class amenities has attracted overseas HNWIs, particularly those from emerging nations
✓ Despite a pick-up in development activities, supply of super-prime residential units continues to lag demand, especially due to planning constraints and lack of funding
sources
✓ A rapidly burgeoning overseas student population in London has also helped in driving demand for PCL residences, with affluent parents looking to either purchase or
rent properties for their children studying in London universities
➢ On the downside, certain government policies can potentially dampen the PCL growth story in the short term. Case in point being the Stamp Duty Land Taxes (SDLT)
launched in 2012, which resulted in a temporary dip in sales volumes in mid-2012
➢ However, in the long run, capital values in PCL are expected to expand by 26% between 2012 and 2017, due to sustained demand from overseas HNWIs
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Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Section 1
Market Overview
PCL Buyer Profile
Increasing Student Demand
PCL Residential Development and Supply Bottlenecks
Conclusion
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3
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Market Overview
Prime Central London represents one of the most expensive residential markets in the
world…
Prime Central London Sub-markets Prime Residential Markets Across the World
6
7
2
1
3
4
7
4 1
5
2
5 6
3
Prime Central London Sub-markets Average Capital Values (psf)(1) Prime Markets Across the World Average Capital Values (psf)(2)
1 Mayfair £1,903 1 New York £1,270 - £1,400
2 Knightsbridge and Belgravia £2,218 2 Paris £1,470 - £1,620
3 Kensington £1,325 3 Tokyo* £770 - £860
4 Notting Hill £1,170(3) 4 Los Angeles £760- £840
5 Chelsea and South Kensington £1,470 5 Singapore* £1,460 - £1,610
6 St John’s Wood £1,136 6 Sydney £1,260 - £1,390
7 Marylebone £1,950(3) 7 Hong Kong* £1,806
While the table above represents the average capital values psf for PCL residential properties, a typical ‘super prime’ property such as ‘One Hyde Park’ can fetch as much as £6,000 - £7,000 psf
Note: Tokyo – based on properties priced above ¥100m (houses and apartments); Capital Values for Singapore are based on provisional data. The Capital Value for Hong Kong has been calculated by converting figures from Hong Kong Dollar to GBP at an average rate of 1 Hong Kong Dollar = £0.5091
(1) Chesterton Humberts Prime London Residential Capital Values Index
(2) ‘The Wealth Report’, Knight Frank, 2013
(3) Foxtons
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Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Market Overview
…consistently outperforming global peers….
PCL vs. Global Prime Residential Capital Values QoQ Growth(1) Key Observations
125
• London’s performance on a global scale has been impressive, having outperformed its
115 peers in terms of capital value growth in the last two years of the post-crisis period
105
— At the peak of the sub-prime crisis in 2009, while other major cities such as Moscow,
Paris and Mumbai struggled with stagnant capital values, Prime Central London
registered an annual growth of 6.1% (having declined by 9.4% in 2008)(2)
95
• In addition to the strong capital value growth, the emergence of London as a global
85
financial and multi-cultural hub has made the city increasingly desirable for global
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
HNWIs, the target segment for PCL
London Moscow Paris
Shanghai Dubai Mum bai
Most Desirable Cities Among HNWIs – 2009(2) Most Desirable Cities Among HNWIs – 2011(2) Most Desirable Cities Among HNWIs – 2013(2)
1 London 1 New York 1 New York
2 New York 2 London 2 London
3 Paris 3 Paris 3 Paris
4 Tokyo 4 Tokyo 4 Tokyo
5 Los Angeles 5 Brussels 5 Hong Kong
London has been consistently ranked as one of the most desirable cities among global HNWIs, leading its peers in parameters such as knowledge and influence and economic activity
Prime Global Cities Index’, Knight Frank
‘Wealth Report’, Knight Frank, 2009-2013
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5Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Market Overview
Consequently, global HNWIs have increasingly favoured the PCL residential market…
Comparison of PCL with Equities Indices(1) Comparison of PCL with other asset classes in 2012(1)
130
Brent Crude 0.30%
110
FTSE 100 Index 6.10%
90
70 Gold 6.96%
50
Gilts 7.58%
30
May-08
Mar-09
Apr-11
Feb-12
Dec-07
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Jul-12
Dec-12
Oct-08
PCL 8.53%
Prim e Central London FTSE 350 Real Estate Index FTSE All Share Index
Strong demand for PCL property, especially from overseas buyers, has delivered high returns consistently
Comparison with UK House Prices(3)
Comparison of Capital Values Growth(2)
120
170
110
150
100
130
90
110
80
90
70
70
Dec-07
Aug-09
Sep-11
Dec-12
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-12
Oct-08
May-08
Mar-09
Apr-11
Feb-12
Mar-09
Apr-11
Feb-12
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-12
Dec-12
Sep-11
PCL Index UK House Price Index
PCL Retail Office Industrial
In stark contrast to the larger property market, PCL’s recovery since the sub-prime crisis has been largely sustainable
1) Bloomberg as at 18th March, 2013
2) IPD Quarterly Digest
3) Nationwide House Price Index
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6Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Section 2
Market Overview
PCL Buyer Profile
Increasing Student Demand
PCL Residential Development and Supply Bottlenecks
Conclusion
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7Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Market Overview
Consequently, global HNWIs have increasingly favoured the PCL residential market…
Percentage of HNWIs’ net worth invested in residences (1) Overseas Buyers for PCL residential properties above £1m(1)
26% 2008 2013
21%
2007 2012 UK Overseas
UK Overseas
London has consistently featured in the Top 5 in all Global Cities Surveys in the past decade, and this has led to increased attention from overseas buyers who consider PCL property as a good
residential option as well as a ‘safe haven’ investment
Comparison of Tax Rates(2) Arab Buyers of PCL residences(3)
Italy 68.3% Arab Spring begins 16%
France 65.7%
Russia 54.1%
Sweden 53.0%
Germany 46.8% 3%
Spain 38.7%
UK 35.5% Dec’ 2010 Q12011 Q42011
Two recent examples highlight the role played by overseas political and legislative environment on PCL demand – (1) French President Hollande’s proposed 75% tax on high earners resulted in
a rush by French HNWIs to buy homes in PCL and (2) The beginning of the Arab Spring uprisings witnessed a five-fold increase in buying activity from Arab HNWIs
(1) ‘Wealth Report’, Knight Frank, 2009-2013
(2) ‘Paying Taxes 2013’, PwC
(3) ‘Prime Central London Index’, Knight Frank
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The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…especially those from emerging economies, which led in terms of global wealth
creation in the past decade…
Percentage of HNWIs’ net worth invested in residences (1) Global Distribution of HNWIs(2)
40 40
Silver 408%
30 30
in USD trillion
in USD trillion
Gold 303% 20 20
Real Estate (Emerging
Markets)* 256% 10 10
0 0
Crude Oil 244% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
North America Europe Asia Pacific
Equities (MSCI Emerging
Markets Index) 138% Middle East Africa Latin America
Key Observations Increase in HNWI Population (2012-2022F)(3)
33%
• Growing global demand for energy resources and agricultural commodities, led to
a windfall for emerging countries which are major agricultural producers or are
rich in natural resources
− Consequently, cumulative HNWI wealth from emerging continents (Asia
Pacific, Africa, Latin America and Middle East) increased 55% from USD
2.9 trillion in 2004 to USD 4.5 trillion in 2011, North America and Europe 92%
registering 24.5% growth during the same period
33%
− This trend is expected to continue during this decade as well with emerging 61%
continents forecast to account for roughly 60% of the new members added
to the global HNWI population 66%
94%
39%
(1) ‘Wealth Report’, Knight Frank, 2009-2013
(2) ‘Paying Taxes 2013’, PwC
(3) ‘Prime Central London Index’, Knight Frank
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9Sample – Disguised and Abridged
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The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…eventually leading to a paradigm shift in the buyer profile….
International Buyer Activity in PCL
Entire PCL between 2005 – 2006(1) By PCL Sub-markets between 2010-2012(2)
% International
Price Brackets 26.2%
Buyers
St. John’s Wood
2.0%
47% £2m-£4m
43.2%
Marylebone
60% 11.9%
£4m-£6m
44.3%
54.8%
Notting Hill Mayfair
8.0% 4.2%
65% £6m-£8m 65.8%
59.3%
Kensington
76.5% Knightsbridge
8.4%
South Kensington 14.6%
66% £8m+
3.4%
43.3%
Chelsea
5.6%
Since 2005, overseas buyers have
shown an increasing affinity towards
investing in PCL residential property % of International Buyers 2010-12 2010 – 2012 % Price Change
• HNWIs preference for a PCL home, combined with a struggling domestic financial services sector and dwindling bonus payouts, resulted in a paradigm shift in buyer profiles of PCL residences:
— In 2010-2012, overseas buyers had an overwhelming presence in some super prime sub-markets of PCL such as Kensington (65.8%), South Kensington (76.5%), Knightsbridge (59.3%) and Chelsea
(43.3%)
— Increased interest from overseas buyers has also resulted in healthy price appreciation in these super-prime post-codes underscoring the defensive qualities of this sub-sector
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Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…especially for new build properties, prompting a realignment in the marketing
strategies of developers
100%
Overseas Investment in New Build PCL Developments(1) Buyer Split for New Build PCL Developments(2)
75%
100%
£2.2bn 50%
75%
£1.8bn 25%
50%
0%
2009 2010 2011
25%
0%
2009 2010 2011
UK
UK Western Euro
Western p e & No
Europe rid ic CoCountries
& Noridic untries
Af rica & Mid d le East Eastern Euro p e & The CIS
Afuth
So ricaAsian
& Middle East
sub-co ntinent Eastern
China Europe
& Pacif & The CIS
ic Asia
2011 2012 South Asian sub -continent China & Pacif ic Asia
Others
Overseas buyers, specifically Asian HNWIs, have increasingly started buying new build PCL residences, replacing domestic buyers as the major buyer segment...
Property Tax Changes in Key Asian Markets(4)(5) PCL Developers’ Marketing Strategy(3)
• In 2011, Singapore imposed an additional 10% stamp • Launched its ‘Fitzroy Place’ residential units in Asia, four
duty on residential properties purchased by foreigners months before its launch in the UK through several road
Singapore
• Plans are also in place to raise taxes for luxury shows
homeowners and investment properties in 2013 • 70% of the residential units at the scheme were eventually
purchased by clients in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong
• In October 2012, the Hong Kong Government imposed
Kong
Hong Kong a 15% tax on property purchased by foreign buyers
• Chelsea Creek, a prime residential scheme, was launched
• House prices in China dropped by 30% in 2012 owing globally in Singapore in 2012 through sales exhibitions
China to ownership restrictions which allowed foreign • Subsequent exhibitions were also held in Kuala Lumpur and
residents to own only one property Hong Kong
...on the back of restrictive legislations in Asian markets, causing Asian HNWIs to look towards London for investing in prime residential property. Consequently, PCL developers have re-directed
their marketing efforts to specifically target Asian buyers
(1) International Residential Investment in London’, Knight Frank, 2013 (4) ‘Singapore hits foreign property buyers with an extra 10% stamp duty’, Property Wire, 16th December, 2011
(2) ‘The World in New London’, Savills Research, February 2012 (5) ‘City Government Imposes Tax on Foreign Property Buyers ‘, The Wall Street Journal, 20th October, 2012
(3) ‘’ Builders set sights on Asia as West is being hit by financial crisis’, The Star, 22nd September, 2012
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11Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Section 3
Market Overview
PCL Buyer Profile
Increasing Student Demand
PCL Residential Development and Supply Bottlenecks
Conclusion
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12Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
The UK’s emergence as a global higher education hub in recent years has led to a surge
in the number of overseas students in London universities…
International Students Market Share – 2000 to 2010 International Students in London Universities 2008-2012(3)
United States 110,000 27%
25.0% 106,000 106,000
20.0%
105,000 26%
Japan 15.0% United Kingdom 102,000
10.0%
100,000 25%
5.0% 97,150
0.0%
95,000 93,000 24%
Canada Germany
90,000 23%
Australia France 85,000 22%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2000 2010
Number o f In tern ational Stud ents % o f In tern ational Stud ents
Ranking of London Colleges in the Global Top 100(3) % of International Students at Top London Colleges(4)
University 2011 2012 2013
68% 67%
Imperial College, London 9 8 8
39% 41% 39%
University College, London 22 17 17 33%
25%
20%
London School of Economics 86 47 39
King's College. London 77 56 57
Imperial College University College London School of King's College
Economics
(1) ‘‘Patterns and Trends in UK Higher Education 2012’, Universities UK
(2) London Higher Factsheet
(3) Times Higher Education World University Rankings
(4) Higher Education Statistics Agency
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13Sample – Disguised and Abridged
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The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…which has led to an upsurge in demand for private rented accommodations and
positively impacted the rental values in the PCL residential market
Share of Overseas Students in the PCL Private Rented Market(1) Central London Student Accommodation Rental Growth (YoY) (3)
2006 2012 9%
12%
29% 5% 5% 5%
71%
88%
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011
Overseas Others
PCL Regions Preferred by Different Student Nationalities(2) Key Observations
PCL Region Prominent Nationalities Preferring the Region • Wealthy students have continued to show an active interest in renting properties in
PCL(1)
Kensington Netherlands Greece — Overseas students account for 29% of the private rented market in the areas of
City of Westminster and the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, up from
12% in 2006
Mayfair UAE Russia – This is substantial, given that growth in demand from other quarters, such as
finance professional tenants in PCL have been nominal (3% growth since
Knightsbridge
2006)
UAE Russia
— In Westminster alone, almost half the total resident population comprise
students
Chelsea UK Netherlands • Strong demand from students has led to sustained growth in rental values in the
PCL residential market
China Kazakhstan — The Knight Frank Student Rental Index grew at a compound annual growth rate
Belgravia
(CAGR) of 6.35% for the period spanning 2008-2011
(1) ‘Rich students rent a third of prime London homes’, Building.co.uk, 19 December, 2012
(2) ‘Overseas students boost London lets’, Financial Times, 7 September, 2012
(3) Knight Frank Student Accommodation Rental Index, 2008-2011
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14Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Section 4
Market Overview
PCL Buyer Profile
Increasing Student Demand
PCL Residential Development and Supply Bottlenecks
Conclusion
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15Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
The buoyancy in the investment and rental markets has catalysed a sharp pick-up in
development activities in different parts of the sub-market…
PCL Residential Development Pipeline(1) Break-up of Prime Residential Development by Area(1)
1.2%
2.4%
15,446 St. John’s
Wood Marylebone
3,223 3.3%
9,024 3,825 10.1% Mayfair
1,486
1,174 Kensington 2.9%
1.9%
8,398
6,414 Knightsbridge
Belgravia
2011 2012 24.5%
Chelsea &
£ 1,100 psf- £ 1,500 psf £ 1,500 psf- £ 2,000 psf > £ 2,000 psf Fulham
• Development activity in PCL has started gathering momentum over the last couple of years, as developers are attracted by the high returns from super-prime projects such as One Hyde
Park, Grosvenor Crescent and The Lancasters
— There has been a 70.2% increase in the number of planned residential projects (>1,000 psf) launched in 2012 compared to 2011
– Of these, projects valued between £1,500-£2,000 psf have grown by c.222.8% over the previous year, while projects valued at >£2,000 psf have registered c.117% YoY growth
– £8bn worth of new development could come to market in 2014-15 alone, comprising over 4,000 units
• Among all the PCL locations, Chelsea continues to witness majority of the development activity
— In 2012, 24.5% of all the residential development activity in Central London was concentrated in Chelsea
— In 2011, project completions rose to 50 units from a mere 12 in 2010, while new project applications rose to 1,737, the Borough's highest application pipeline for more than a decade
(1) ‘London Prime Residential Pipeline 2012’, EC Harris, 2012
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16Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…notwithstanding the tight planning norms in Central London….
S106 Agreement Rights of Light
The Law The Law
Section 106 Agreements are a form of planning obligation that enable a planning A "right to light" is an easement that gives landowners the right to receive light
authority to set out limitations on the use of the land being sold for development or through defined apertures in buildings on their land. The owners of land that is
requiring a developer to make a financial or other contribution to the infrastructure burdened by the right cannot substantially interfere with it (for example by erecting
and facilities in the area. This can include providing drainage, lighting or other a building in a way that blocks the light) without the consent of the benefiting owner.
services, road, community facilities, education facilities or social housing.
Recent Examples Recent Examples
• Almacantar’s residential-led property redevelopment • Plans to redevelop the Middlesex Hospital site by
plan for Centre Point was rejected by the Camden Exemplar were met with strong opposition by parents of
Council in September 2012 due to inadequate nearby All Souls Primary School, citing lack of adequate
provision for affordable housing sunlight
• This is expected to be resolved by the acquisition of • Although the Westminster Council finally approved the
an adjoining former pub, Intrepid Fox, with plans to planning application for the site redevelopment, the
Fitzroy Place
redevelop it into either an 8 or a larger 14-16 developers had to provide space in the scheme for a
Centre Point
affordable flat scheme(1) new primary care facility and an educational centre for
the All Souls Primary School(3)
• The Chelsea Barracks redevelopment plan was
• Candy and Candy in its endevour to increase the
initially rejected by the Westminster Council on
developable area of its super prime residential
account of plans to develop affordable housing off-site
development had to contend with several right to light
• This was rectified in subsequent plans which included issues
123 affordable on-site units, together with an
• In order to proceed with the development, Candy and
additional £78m payment made to the council’s One Hyde Park
Candy were required to provide adequate compensation
affordable housing fund(2)
Chelsea Barracks to 34 adjoining owners(4)
(1) Estate Gazette, ‘Will Camden finally get the Point?’, 8th March 2013 (3) Development plans for Middlesex Hospital site approved by Westminster council’, Fitzrovia News, 3rd February, 2012
(2) ‘Qatari Diar offers Westminster £78m to cut Chelsea Barracks social housing’, Property Week, 16th June, 2011 (4) GIA website (http://www.gia.uk.com/projects/rights-of-light-projects/one-hyde-park-london/)
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17Sample – Disguised and Abridged
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The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
…which along with a lack of funding sources, continue to deter development activities
and can potentially widen the demand supply gap in the future
Housing supply vs. demand in Central London(1) Variance in Units to be Delivered up to 2021(2)
4,500
4,000
Units delivered in a year
4,000
3,500
3,500
Demand and 3,000
3,000 Supply Gap 2,500
2,500
Units
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
0
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 2014F 2016F 2018F 2020F
Pipeline 2011 Pipeline 2012 Deliverability Assessment
Private Completions All Completions Average Annual Demand
Housing supply vs. demand in Central London(1)
• Despite an improvement in development activity in the PCL region, the gap in demand and supply becomes evident while comparing a supply of 13,904 units in the pipeline against
demand for 31,769 units between 2012 and 2021
• Lack of bank funding is proving a critical bottleneck in residential property development not only for PCL but across London
— Over 70% of European CMBS loans maturing in 2012 have not been repaid, causing banks to stay away from funding the real estate sector
— In order to plug the gap left by banks, several non-bank lenders are showing an active interest in lending to the sector
– Several senior debt funds including Henderson Global Investors, are in the process of raising equity while insurance companies such as Legal and General and Aviva have also
initiated plans to target the real estate sector
– However, these funds come with aggressive requirements (to de-risk development prior to commencement) which includes minimum pre-sales, construction cost certainty, over-
run guarantees and flexibility to stop and start work depending on sales rates
– Mezzanine finance is also an expensive alternative causing developers to think twice before resorting to these avenues
(1) ‘London Development 2012’, Knight Frank
(2) ‘London Prime Residential Development Pipeline 2012’, EC Harris, 2012
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18Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market Section 5
Market Overview
PCL Buyer Profile
Increasing Student Demand
PCL Residential Development and Supply Bottlenecks
Conclusion
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19Sample – Disguised and Abridged
Sample – Disguised and Abridged
The Prime Central London Residential Market PCL Buyer Profile
Recent tax increases have failed to dampen the attractiveness of PCL, offset by robust
overseas demand which is likely to drive capital appreciation in the long term
Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) Slab(1) % Change in Sales of Properties above £2m (YoY)(2)
87%
Charge prior to 22nd Charge post 22nd March, Dip in sales owing to tax policies
House Price Brackets
March, 2012 2012
41% 35%
>£2m 5% 7% 3%
10%
-5%
>£2m and owned by -19%
5% 15%
non-natural person
Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Sales of PCL residential units experienced a temporary fall on account of an increase in the SDLT rates in 2012...
PCL vs. UK House Price Growth (YoY Forecasts)(3) Number of HNWIs in London(4)
Dip in growth owing
to tax policies 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 8,202
4.00% 3.50% 4.20%
2.00% 6,015
1.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017-2021 (F)
Prime Central London Annual Price Growth UK House Price Annual Growth 2012 2022 (F)
...however, PCL being intrinsically linked to HNWIs, growth in the latter’s numbers should auger well for the market in the future
(1) HMRC (3) UK Housing Market Forecast, Knight Frank, Q4 2012
(2) Land Registry House Price Index (4) ‘The Wealth Report’, Knight Frank, 2013
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20Sample – Disguised and Abridged
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