Moving Beyond Covid-19 - A collection of findings and insights from Nexus Covid-19 research
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Moving Beyond Covid-19 A collection of findings and insights from Nexus Covid-19 research
Introduction This deck provides an overview of mobility and public transport use since lockdown supported by findings and insights from the various research activities undertaken by Nexus since the first lockdown in March 2020; • Nexus research • Background (mobility and transport use) • Attitudinal changes • Societal changes • Looking ahead
Nexus Research A timeline of research carried out during the Covid-19 pandemic
Nexus Research
Research relating to Covid-19 has been carried out by, or for, Nexus since lockdown with an unbroken chain of
findings available through a range of online surveys and telephone interviews. The timeline below demonstrates
how each component has contributed to Nexus Covid-19 research.
Attitudinal Tracker:
Weekly
Business Survey Lockdown began 23 March 2020
In-depth telephone
interviews
Moving Beyond
Covid-19 Survey
Selected Attitudinal Tracker
questions included in
Insight Panel surveys:
Monthly
Continuous Monitoring
Surveys
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -
ongoingMobility and transport use A collection of statistics showing the impact of the pandemic on how people travel
Average change in mobility
Google Mobility Report
Retail and recreation Workplaces Supermarket and Pharmacy Parks
100 100 100 80
80 80 80 60
60 60 60
% variance against
40
40 40 40
20 20 20 20
baseline*
0 0 0 0
-20 -20 -20 -20
-40 -40 -40
-40
-60 -60 -60
-80 -80 -80 -60
-100 -100 -100 -80
Apr
Nov
Apr
Nov
Apr
Nov
Apr
Nov
Sep
Dec
Sep
Dec
Sep
Sep
Dec
Mar
May
Oct
Jan
Mar
Mar
May
Oct
Jan
Mar
Mar
Dec
May
Oct
Jan
Mar
Mar
May
Oct
Jan
Mar
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
* 5 weeks during Jan/Feb 2020Public Transport Demand
Percentage of normal
T&W Public Transport demand as percentage of normal
Data Estimates (solid) and Trend Estimates (dotted)
100%
Metro patronage fell to just 5% of normal at the first
lockdown, half the level seen on local bus services.
90%
Prior to Covid-19, our User Profile research showed
80%
30-35% of Metro passenger journeys could have
been made by car compared to 10-15% of bus
% of expected or previous year
70%
passenger journeys.
60%
As restrictions were eased over the summer, public
50% 49% transport patronage recovered to around half of pre-
50%
Covid levels (and higher still towards the end of the
47% 30% 4-week period).
40%
26%
Since Autumn, various local restrictions and Tier
30%
35%
levels followed which saw passenger demand
respond accordingly.
20%
11%
10% 16% 16%
0% 5%
4-weeks endingChanges in Metro use
Reasons for travel (source: Nexus Continuous Monitoring) Times for travelling (weekday) (source: Nexus Sales)
Metro Journey Purpose Metro Hourly Demand (Weekday) - relative By mid July, the
Excludes 'mixed' purpose Single sales and smartcard journeys only traditional morning
Non-essential Journeys Essential Journeys 14% and afternoon peaks
12% observed on weekdays
10% had been almost
10/10/2020
16% 64% 8% entirely replaced with
(Tier 2)
6% a pattern of demand
07/11/2020
18% 57%
4% that saw the middle of
(Tier 2)
2% the day carrying most
4-weeks ending
05/12/2020
6% 70%
0% journeys.
(Lockdown) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
02/01/2021 Hour
(Tier 3)
13% 43%
12/07/2020 Reference profile 2019/20
30/01/2021
(Lockdown)
6% 70%
27/02/2021
Metro Hourly Demand (Weekday) - relative But by November, just
9% 70% Single sales and smartcard journeys only
(Lockdown) prior to the second
14% lockdown, we had
12% moved towards the
10% more traditional
As the second lockdown took affect through November, the proportion
8% pattern albeit with an
of non-essential journeys fell to just 6%. The same period last year saw
6% earlier shifted
20% of journeys classified as non-essential.
4% afternoon peak.
2%
The ‘mixed’ category includes shopping and visiting friends/relatives. In
0%
the light of Covid-19 and those supporting vulnerable people by 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
shopping on their behalf and visiting them, this category is excluded Hour
from the chart above.
01/11/2020 Reference profile 2019/20
Essential includes; work, education and personal business | Mixed includes; shopping, visiting friends & relatives
| Non-essential includes; leisure, eventsTransport use change following local Covid-19 restrictions from 18th September
Cars
Traffic change on last year(source: UTMC)
0% 0%
-10% -2%
-20%
-30% -4%
-40% -6% -10% -12%
-50% -8%
-60% -17%
-10%
-70%
-12%
01/03/20
08/03/20
15/03/20
22/03/20
29/03/20
05/04/20
12/04/20
19/04/20
26/04/20
03/05/20
10/05/20
17/05/20
24/05/20
31/05/20
07/06/20
14/06/20
21/06/20
28/06/20
05/07/20
12/07/20
19/07/20
26/07/20
02/08/20
09/08/20
16/08/20
23/08/20
30/08/20
06/09/20
13/09/20
20/09/20
-14%
-16%
-18%
06/09/20 13/09/20 20/09/20
Pre-lockdown Lockdown and easing Local
restrictions No local restrictions Local restrictions from Friday Local restrictions all week
Public transport
Metro demand relative to normal (source: Nexus)
-46%
20%
0%
-48%
-50%
-51%
-53% -52k -17%
journeys
-20% -52%
-40% -54%
-56%
-59%
change
-60%
-58%
-80%
-60% Full week of restrictions compared to
06/09/20 13/09/20 20/09/20
2-weeks earlier
-100%
01/03/20 01/05/20 01/07/20 01/09/20 No local restrictions Local restrictions from Friday Local restrictions all week
Prior to the Tier system, local restrictions introduced in mid-September saw a return of restricted activity. These restrictions were slightly stronger than the Tier 2
that replaced them with regards to rules on socialising at home and they introduced the closure of hospitality at 10pm and the requirement for table service
only.
Immediately, travel demand on both roads and Metro reduced as the local population responded to these restrictions.Recovery so far
Metro Recovery Observed
100%
Since the first lockdown in March, we have direct observations
90% of the demand recovery in different states of restrictions.
The two lockdowns to date have been different in their scope
80% with the November lockdown allowing much more activity than
the original lockdown. We have observed that lockdowns
result in 5-25% of demand.
70%
Prior to local restrictions, the equivalent of Tier 1, demand
had increased to 50% and was on an upward trajectory.
60%
Tier 1 Local restrictions were subsumed into the subsequent tiered
50% Tier 2 system at Tier 2 where demand plateaued at 35%.
50% Tier 3
Tier 4/Lockdown
We can assume Tier 3 would lie between lockdown and Tier 2.
40% The Tier 3 status that began after the 2nd lockdown was
artificially increased due to the Christmas period and saw
35% demand around 35% of normal.
30%
30%
The area experienced Tier 4 restrictions for a only a few days
5-25% before the 3rd national lockdown began in early January. Early
20%
indications are of demand around 15% of normal.
10%
0%
Recovery During RestrictionsPedestrian Flow in Newcastle
Source: Urban Observatory
Weekly Pedestrian Flows in Newcastle
Source: Urban Observatory
1,400,000
Spring Summer Autumn Christmas
1,200,000
1,000,000
Pedestrian Flow
800,000
Tier 2
Recovery 4-week Avg 2019
4-Week Avg 2020
600,000
1st Lockdown
400,000
Tier 3
200,000
2nd
Lockdown
0
-89% -41% -55% -59% -30%
Lockdown Recovery Tier 2 Lockdown Tier 3Source: TADU
Cycle volume
10000
0
1000
2000
3000
5000
6000
7000
9000
4000
8000
16/03/2020
23/03/2020
30/03/2020
06/04/2020
13/04/2020
Active Travel Use
20/04/2020
27/04/2020
04/05/2020
57%
Mar to May
11/05/2020
18/05/2020
25/05/2020
01/06/2020
08/06/2020
15/06/2020
22/06/2020
29/06/2020
06/07/2020
13/07/2020
20/07/2020
27/07/2020
03/08/2020
Jun to Aug
62%
10/08/2020
17/08/2020
Expected and Observed
24/08/2020
Week commencing
31/08/2020
Cycle Volumes in Tyne and Wear
07/09/2020
14/09/2020
21/09/2020
28/09/2020
05/10/2020
12/10/2020
19/10/2020
Sep to Oct
26/10/2020
02/11/2020
09/11/2020
16/11/2020
23/11/2020
30/11/2020
07/12/2020
14/12/2020
43% 22%
Nov to Dec
21/12/2020
28/12/2020Attitudinal changes A summary of findings from our 17-week Attitudinal Tracker from early in the pandemic Full results from each wave of the tracker are available at www.nexus.org.uk/insight
Transport operators’ handling of the pandemic
Source: Nexus Insight Panel, Covid-19 Attitudinal Tracker
Positive feelings towards transport operators During the 17 weeks of the attitudinal tracker,
100% support for transport operators’ handline of the
% of people who said “excellent” or “good”
pandemic was recorded.
90%
80% Airlines started from a low support base but fell
considerably in the first months of the pandemic
70% – holiday cancellations and delays receiving
refunds were the key contributors to this. By the
60%
end of July, support was just 30%.
50%
Local public transport operators saw higher
40%
levels of support
30%
20%
10%
0%
Bus Metro Airlines Rail
How do you think Bus/Metro/Airlines/Rail have responded to the pandemic? Base: All respondents (excludes don’t knows)Walking and Cycling
Source: Nexus
Increased walking and cycling activity From the early days of lockdown, we saw
100% increased levels of walking and cycling among
Walking Cycling respondents.
90%
% of people walking or cycling more
Throughout the 17 weeks the tracker was
80%
active, the levels of increased walking and
70% cycling was consistent with just over 1 in 3
people walking more and 15% cycling more.
60%
Much of this has become embedded
50%
behavioural change as the Looking Ahead
36% 35% 34% 34% 37% 35% 36% 36% section will show.
40% 33% 34% 33% 32% 35% 34% 32%
30%
30%24%
20% 13% 15% 12% 14% 14% 13% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 14% 16%
9% 11%
10%
0%Walking and Cycling
Source: Nexus
Reported health benefits from increased walking and cycling Perhaps the most positive finding from our
Cycling Walking tracker was the self-reported health benefits
among those walking and cycling more.
With a significant proportion expecting to
75% continue walking and cycling more in the
future, this has long term benefits to public
health.
Bar:
Week 8 56%
48%
Line: 44% 44%
41%
Week 1
30%
17%
Weight loss Improved physical Improved mental Improved fitness
health health
Have you experienced any health benefits from walking or cycling more? Base: Respondents who said they are walking/cycling more (Walking n=130, Cycling n=48)Embracing working from home
Source: Nexus
Experience of working from home
Very positive Positive Neutral Negative Very negative
15% 37% 31% 17%
After 8 weeks of the first lockdown, the experience of working from home among those who previously didn’t do this was very positive
although was not universally welcomed. Overall more than half found the experience positive.
How have you found the experience of working from home?
Base: Respondents who are working from home that did not previously work from home n=119, Week 8 – 29th May 2020Early response to face coverings
Source: Nexus, July 2020
Impact of wearing face-coverings on Reasons face-coverings have made
shopping habits people shop less
10% Uncomfortable 47%
I am going to the shops more
Behaviour of others 13%
Online instead 13%
65% Don't like wearing one 11%
It has made no difference
Hard to breathe 11%
Removes enjoyment 9%
Shopping less Unnecessary 6%
25% Health reasons 6%
In July we covered the early response to face coverings. A quarter of respondents stated they were shopping less as a direct consequence of
having to wear a face covering with discomfort being the primary driver.
How has wearing a face-covering in shops and supermarkets influenced how often you go shopping? Base: All respondents n=375
Please tell us why are you going to the shops less? Base: All respondents shopping less because of face-coverings=95Levels of concern
Source: Nexus Insight Panel
100% 1% 3% 100%
4% Tracker results
10% Not at all concerned
90% 9% 90% 85% 85% 84% 84% 84% 83%
84% 82%
82% 82%
5% 80% 80% 79%
77% 76% 78% 77% 78% 77%
80% 80% 75%
70% Somewhat concerned 70%
60%
60% 43% 42%
50%
50% Slightly concerned
40%
40%
30%
30% Moderately concerned
20%
20% 34% 40%
10%
10% Extremely concerned
0%
18/09/2020 28/10/2020 23/12/2020
0%
31/07/2020 23/12/2020
Throughout the pandemic, concern about Covid-19 has remained high among respondents. Even
at the best time during the 17 week attitudinal tracker, 3 in 4 people were experiencing extreme or
moderate levels of concern. Unsurprisingly, as additional restrictions were imposed by Christmas –
including the creation of Tier 4 – concern had risen again to similar levels seen in March 2020.
How concerned are you about Covid-19?Expectations of Covid-19 situation
Source: Nexus Insight Panel
Covid-19 situation in our region
100%
Tracker results
90% One month
into first Non-essential retail Tier 2 2nd Lockdown Tier 3
lockdown re-opens equivalent
80% 74%
The worst is yet to come
70% Hospitality
re-opens
58% 59%
60% 57% 54%
52%
50%
Things will stay the same
40% 36% 36% 36%
42%
30% 22%
23%
20%
21% 11%
17% 6% The worst has passed
10% 4% 5%
0%
10/04/2020 08/05/2020 05/06/2020 03/07/2020 31/07/2020 28/08/2020 18/09/2020
25/09/2020 23/10/2020
28/10/2020 20/11/2020 18/12/2020
23/12/2020
At the outset of the weekly Attitudinal Tracker, around 3 in 4 people believed the worst of the effects of the pandemic in our region were still to be felt. By the time
summer arrived and the relaxation of restrictions that followed, we saw signs of optimism. Unfortunately this was temporary as Tier 2 equivalent restrictions were
introduced in mid-September followed by a second lockdown in November which transitioned into Tier 3 restrictions. By Christmas, we saw the highest proportion
believing the worst was still to come since the start of the pandemic. The impact of the 3rd national lockdown from January is not captured here.
Thinking about Covid-19 in our region and the way the situation is going to change over the next month, which of the following best describes your opinion?Societal changes A collection of statistics illustrating underlying pre-pandemic changes in society
Retail Footfall
Retail Footfall YOY Change in North East1 Lockdown has come at a particularly challenging time for
the high street. Retail footfall in the North East has been in
20.0% decline since the end of 2015.
10.0% Research shows that one of the leading reasons for visiting
the high street less is the lack of shops or shop closures2.
0.0%
This creates a causality spiral; as shops close, fewer
-10.0% people visit the high street making it less economically
viable for remaining shops to trade.
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
-60.0%
Shops
-70.0% close
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
August
August
August
August
August
August
August
April
April
April
April
February
February
February
February
April
February
April
February
April
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Business Reduced
struggles footfall
1
Ipsos UK Retail Traffic, North East
2
Nexus Insight Panel, Retail Habits surveyRetail: from brick to click
Sales by location as a percentage of total retail1
Stores Online Over the last decade, the market share of online retailing
3% 6% nationally increased from 6% to 19%. Had that trend
100% 8% 10%
90%
13%
16%
continued, online retailing would have reached 40% by
19%
2029.
80%
40%?
% of sales, nationally
70%
In April, the first full month of lockdown, online market
60%
share reached 30% - 5 years earlier than the underlying
60%?
50%
trend. This fell back slightly to 27% during August.
40%
30%
Nexus research has consistently shown a high expectation
20%
among respondents that their physical retailing will reduce
10%
post-pandemic in favour of increased online use with
0%
ramifications on travel demand and local economies.
…………………..…
The British Retail Consortium predicted a 25% reduction in high street units by 2025.
COVID-19 has accelerated this to within the next 1-2 years
1
Office for National Statistics, Internet sales as percentage of total sales
2
Office for National Statistics, Internet Access – Households and Individuals 2019
3
Interview with BRC spokesperson on BBC Click
4
Nexus Insight Panel, Attitudinal Tracker | Nexus Moving Beyond Covid surveyWorking from home
Proportion of workers working from home1
8.0%
Home working in the North East is rare with just over 5%
During lockdown working solely from home1 in 2019, behind the rest of the UK
7.0% on 7%.
6.0% During the March lockdown we estimate 27%2 of the local
5.0%
5.2%
32% workforce were working from home, slightly behind the UK
figure of 32%3.
4.0%
3.0%
27%
2.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Series2 Series1
Where next?
Post COVID-19 rates of working from home will fall back but If the existing 27% continued working 30%
certainly not to where they were. from home for 2 days a week it
would amount to a working from 25%
In all likelihood we could see the rate double in a year as a home rate of just under 11%.
20%
result of the pandemic compared to the natural doubling over
a decade – effectively leaping forward 15-20 years. 15%
10%
5%
0%
Pre-COVID During COVID Post-COVID
1
Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey
2
Nexus Insight Panel, COVID-19 Attitude Tracker
3
Office for National Statistics, Opinions and Lifestyle SurveyLooking ahead Highlighting some of the potential long lasting impacts of the pandemic
Expectations of post Covid-19 activity Nexus Covid-19 Attitude Tracker Week 17 (end July 2020)
Expectations of post Covid-19 activity
Nexus Moving Beyond Covid Survey (September 2020)
After Covid-19
Increase Stay the same Reduce
45% 6%
Since Covid-19
Increased 7% 33% 11%
walking more after walking less after
Stayed the same 5% 26% 2% Covid compared to Covid compared to
baseline baseline
Reduced 11% 3% 1%
After Covid-19
Increase Stay the same Reduce
17% 2% 65%
Since Covid-19
Increased 3% 12% 4%
cycling more after cycling less after of people
Stayed the same 2% 9% 1% Covid compared to Covid compared to don’t cycle
baseline baseline at all
Reduced 2% 1% 0%
As noted in the Attitudinal Changes section, increased walking and cycling was evident immediately within the first lockdown. In
our Moving Beyond Covid survey in September 2020, we found embedded behavioural change in this regard.Expectations of post Covid-19 activity
Nexus Moving Beyond Covid Survey (September 2020)
18% 78% 49% 11% 27%
shopping on high shopping on the shopping online shopping online use public transport less
street more high street less more less for work
4% 40%
shopping on high shopping online the
street the same same
Walking and cycling are not the only areas we’re seeing potential embedded behavioural change. Expectations of retailing are of a
significant shift towards online at the expense of physical shopping. We know many people have used, and relied, on online shopping for
the first time as a result of the pandemic – many of whom are content to stay shopping this way.A means to an end
Travel, regardless of the method, is largely a means to an end. There are six key determinants of travel on Metro;
Commuting Leisure & Hospitality Retail Education Socialising Business
39% 27% 13% 10% 7% 1%Changes to the drivers of demand on Metro
Highly likely to Possible to reduce Less likely to
reduce reduce
• Increased working from home • Some businesses won’t survive • Still some scope for education trips to
• Remote business meetings COVID-19 impacts be reduced – especially among
• Move from ‘Brick’ to ‘Click’ retail • But demand for travel could be university students
maintained with remaining services • Socialising likely to be the least
affected
53% of pre-COVID demand 27% of pre-COVID demand 17% of pre-COVID demandStrong support for improving air quality
Source: Nexus Weekly Covid-19 Attitude Tracker
Improving air quality Support for initiatives
46% Converting some road space to cycle
We should build on the improvement 38% 25% 17% 9% 11%
paths
seen already
Building more cycle paths alongside
42% 27% 17% 7%7%
19% current roads
We should try to maintain the
improvement seen already
Converting some road space to
38% 32% 16% 10% 3%
footpaths
We should try to improve on pre- 29%
lockdown levels but accept they’ll be
worse than during lockdown Building more footpaths alongside
42% 31% 21% 5% 2%
current roads
5%
We should consider the improvement Making city centres pedestrian only, on
24% 34% 22% 10% 9%
a temporary thing an adhoc basis
Making city centres pedestrian only, 7
1% days a week
38% 39% 10%7%6%
I do not believe there is an issue with
air quality to begin with
Strongly support Somewhat support Neutral Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose
Evidence from around the world has shown improvements in air quality and reductions in To what extent do you support or oppose the following initiatives to at least maintain the air quality
CO2 as a result of lockdown restrictions. What are your thoughts on this? improvements we've seen once things return to normal?
Base: All respondents n=437, Week 4 – 1st May 2020 Base: All respondents n= 443, Week 5 – 8th May 2020For more information
An itemised list of topics covered since March 2020
Topics covered by the Insight Panel.
Tracker Topics Results week number Panel Topics Month
Mood of the panel Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Attitudes towards group travel March 2020
Outlook for the region regarding Covid Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Mobile Phone connectivity on the Metro September 2020
Levels of concern around Covid Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Is free Wi-Fi or a stable phone signal more important? September 2020
Health benefits from walking and cycling Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Metro Travel app usage October 2020
How have transport providers handled the pandemic Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Attitude of passengers towards Nexus Researchers October 2020
When will you next use public transport? Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Christmas gift spending how much, on what and when? November 2020
Leisure activities Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Internet shopping November 2020
Holiday booking Wk1 to Wk17 (10/04/20 to 31/07/20) Covid-19 social distancing and masks, when will it end? November 2020
Working from home. Wk1 to Wk8 (10/04/20 to 29/05/20)
Attitudes towards a Covid vaccine November 2020
NHS Covid-19 contact tracing app Wk2, Wk6 (17/04/20 & 15/05/20)
Lockdown fatigue November 2020
Financial wellbeing Wk3, Wk9 (24/04/20 & 05/06/20)
Public transport, Covid-secure arrangements Wk4 to Wk8 (01/05/20 to 29/05/20)
Overseas travel and Covid tests November 2020
Cycling and walking improvements Wk5 (08/05/20) Mood of the panel December 2020
Air quality improvements Wk5 (08/05/20) Outlook for the region regarding Covid December 2020
Understanding of “Stay alert” Wk6 (15/05/20) Levels of concern around Covid December 2020
Understanding of NHS test and trace scheme Wk9 (05/06/20) Covid-19 social distancing and masks, when will it end? December 2020
Willingness to self-isolate Wk9 (05/06/20) Perceived risk associated with different activities December 2020
Passenger requirements for using public transport Wk9 (05/06/20) Shopping habits after Covid December 2020
Propensity to wear a face covering Wk10 (12/06/20) How have transport providers handled the pandemic December 2020
UK holiday destinations Wk10 (12/06/20)
Awareness of anti-microbial sanitiser on the Metro Wk11 (19/06/20)
Number of passengers wearing face covering on the Metro Wk11 (19/06/20)
Long haul or short haul overseas holidays? Wk11 (19/06/20)
Social distancing Wk12 (26/06/20)
Non-essential retail Wk13 (03/07/20)
Cycling and walking improvements (revisited) Wk13 (03/07/20)
Air quality improvements (revisited) Wk13 (03/07/20)
Likelihood of local lockdown Wk14 (10/07/20)
Nexus Researchers Wk15 (17/07/20)
‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme Wk15 (17/07/20)
Support or opposition to face coverings in shops Wk16 (24/07/20)
Support or opposition to lockdown restrictions Wk17 (31/07/20)
Full results from each wave of the tracker are available at www.nexus.org.uk/insight or email business.intelligence@nexus.org.ukYou can also read
