Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
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Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
May 2022
Macro Economic Research Center
Economics Department
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
https://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/
This report is the revised English version of the April 2022 issue of the original Japanese version.Disclaimer:
This report is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an inducement to trade in any way. All information in this report is provided “as is”, with no guarantee
of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of an y kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of
performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will JRI, its officers or employees and its in terviewee be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or
action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any damages, even if we are advised of the possibility of s uch damages. JRI reserves the right to suspend operation of, or
change the contents of, the report at any time without prior notification. JRI is not obliged to alter or update the informat ion in the report, including without limitation any projection or other
forward looking statement contained therein.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, LimitedThe General Situation – Economic recovery pauses
Figure 1-1 Economic Activity Figure 1-2 The Corporate Sector Figure 1-3 Overseas Demand
Both coincident and leading indices of business sentiment The Industrial Production Index is lackluster, with the materials Exports to China and the U.S. are rising.Imports of general
are sluggish. sector, e.g., chemicals, the main laggard. machinery and chemical products are increasing.
(CY2015=100) Index of business (CY2015=100) (CY2015=100)
110 conditions (Composite 110 Industrial production index 120
Real exports
index, Coincident index)
105 105 115
100 110
100
95 105
95
90 100
Index of business 90 Industrial inventory index
85 95
conditions (Composite Real imports
index, Leading index) 85
80 90
75 80 85
70 75 80
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
(Y/M) (Y/M) (Y/M)
Source: The Cabinet Office. Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Source: The Bank of Japan.
Figure 1-4 Employment and Income Figure 1-5 The Household Sector Figure 1-6 Prices
The unemployment rate is hovering in the high 2% range. Real consumption is moving back and forth.Housing Corporate goods prices, especially those of petroleum
Nominal wages are rising mainly due to overtime pay. starts are low at 800,000 units. products, are climbing rapidly.Consumer prices are now
higher than a year earlier.
(％) (CY2020=100) (％)
6 12 125 160
10
Unemployment rate 120
Real household consumption 150
5 (left scale) 10 115 8 Producer price index
expenditure index (left scale)
140 (y/y % change)
4 8 110 (10,000 6
(％)
105 130
houses)
3 6 4
Total cash earnings 100
120
2 (JRI's estimates, y/y 4 95 2
% change, right scale) 110
90 0
1 2
85 100
▲2
0 0 80
90 Consumer price index
75 ▲4 (excluding fresh food,
-1 ▲2 Housing starts 80 y/y % change)
70 (annualized, right scale) ▲6
-2 ▲4 65 70 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
(Y/M)
(Y/M) (Y/M)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
Source: The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The Bank of Japan.
of The Cabinet Office, The Ministry of Land,
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
* The shaded area indicates the recession phase. The Japan Research Institute, Limited
. -1-Improvement in business confidence among companies pauses,
and personal consumption slumps
◆ DI for business conditions declines for the first time in seven quarters ◆ Personal consumption falls again
According to the Bank of Japan's Tankan March survey, the DI for business In January, the Real Consumption Activity Index (adjusted for the travel balance)
conditions for large companies dropped to +11, the first decline in seven dipped 2.9%, the second consecutive month of month-on-month (MoM) decline. The
consecutive quarters. Looking at the breakdown, the manufacturing sector DI was breakdown shows a downward swing in services consumption due to spread of the
+14, down three points from the previous survey. Business confidence worsened in Omicron variant..
the automotive and other sectors, which were forced to adjust production due to a ◆ Production activity is about to pick up
sharp increase in the number of people infected with the Omicron strain. Although February’s Industrial Production Index remained weak at +0.1% MoM,
Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing sector DI also declined for the first time in production plans in March and April are expected to increase significantly by 3.6%
MoM and 9.6% MoM, respectively. Although there remains a possibility that plans
seven quarters, albeit slightly, to +9. Although business conditions in such sectors
will be revised downward, the outlook for production is one of improvement. As
as information services held firm, those in consumer-related sectors such as
foreign demand is firm, especially in advanced countries, where economic activity
accommodation/food services and personal services deteriorated due to a return of
is normalizing following the COVID-19 pandemic, a clear recovery in exports is
the “stay home” mood as the government authorized prefectures to impose targeted expected to be seen once production begins to pick up.
quasi-emergency restrictions on the sale of alcohol, opening hours, etc. (below,
“quasi-emergency measures”).
Figure 2-1 Contributions to the Business Conditions Diffusion Index by Industry Figure 2-2 Real Consumption Activity Index
(CY2016=100)
(% points) Large Manufacturing Large Nonmanufacturing Real consumption activity index (travel balance adjusted)
実質消費活動指数（旅行収支調整済）
140
(% points) Durable goods
耐久財
35 Forecast
10 Forecast Non-durable goods
非耐久財
25 10 130
25 サービス
Services
20
5
5 120
15 15
10
5 0 0 110
5
▲5 0 ▲5
▲5 100
▲15 ▲5
▲10 90
▲10▲10
▲25
▲15
80
▲15
▲35 ▲20▲15
2010 11 2112
2018 19 20 22 20182010 19 11 20 21 12 22
Basic Industrial Electrical (Y/Q) Construction- Consumption- Logistics- 70
素材 一般機械 電気機械 建設関連 消費関連 物流関連 (Y/Q) 2018 19 20 21 22
materials machinery machinery related related related
Motor Information & (Y/M)
自動車 Others
その他 Total
製造業 情報通信 Others
その他 Total
非製造業
vehicles communication Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
"The Tankan March 2022 Survey".
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-2-Goods exports are rising, while inbound demand is close to zero
◆ Transportation machinery exports are rising easing supply constraints for semiconductors and other components.
Goods exports increased in February for the first time in two months, up 2.4% from ◆ Inbound demand is almost zero
the previous month. By product category, exports of transportation machinery, which The number of foreign visitors to Japan in February was still down by the massive
had been down due to the impact of factory shutdowns amid the spread of the figure of 99.4% compared to 2019. However, the government has been gradually
Omicron strain, moved upwards. easing its anti-COVID waterfront protection measures, and in March resumed the
Looking ahead, exports are expected to continue to increase on the back of acceptance of new foreign visitors, excluding tourists.
growing demand associated with the global economic recovery. According to the Global passenger traffic is picking up, and the International Civil Aviation
Bank of Japan's Tankan March survey, the DI for the overseas supply-demand Organization (ICAO) expects it to recover to 70% of pre-COVID levels by the end of
balance for manufactured goods from large manufacturers, and for production 2022. With waterfront measures being relaxed worldwide, the assumption is that
machinery and electrical machinery, in particular, remained significantly positive inbound demand will begin to recover in Japan in the second half of the year as
(excess demand), indicating that overseas demand is projected to continue to restrictions on tourists entering the country are eased.
improve. In transportation machinery, although some automakers temporarily
adjusted production due to the March earthquake off the coast of Fukushima
Prefecture, the underlying tone is expected to continue to pick up on the back of an
Figure 3-1 Real Exports by Item Figure 3-2 DI for Overseas Supply and Figure 3-3 Industrial Production Index
Demand Conditions for Products for Transportation Equipment
All items (right scale)
全品目（右目盛） (CY2019 = 100)
資本財 (CY2015 (% points)
(CY2015 Capital goods 110
＝100) 40 Forecast
＝100) 電子部品・デバイス
Electronic parts and devices
140 輸送機械 140 30 100
Transportation equipment
130 20
130 90
120 10
110 120 0 80
100 ▲10
110 70
90 ▲20
60
80 100 ▲30 輸送用機械
Transportation equipment
電気機械
Electrical machinery
70 ▲40 50
90 生産用機械
Production machinery
60 ▲50 製造業
Total manufacturing
40
50 80 ▲60 2019 20 21 22
2018 19 20 21 22 2017 18 19 20 21 22 (Y/M)
(Y/M) (Y/Q) Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data
of The Ministry of Economy, trade and Industry.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data Note:Figures are based on the production forecast index.
of The Ministry of Finance, The Bank of Japan. of The Bank of Japan. The latest two figures are JRI estimates based on
Note: Figures in the angled brackets show the shares in total Note:The latest figures are forecasts based on March METI's method.
nominal exports in CY2021. 2022 Tankan Survey. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy April 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-3-Corporate earnings are down, but capital investment picks up
◆ Corporate earnings drop in January-March quarter the COVID pandemic, it could be negative compared to the previous year if the WTI
According to the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations, ordinary profit in price level of over $130 takes hold.
October-December last year rose a significant 17.4% on an all-industry basis from the ◆ Investment plans for FY2022 will be substantially higher
previous quarter. However, in the January-March quarter of this year, ordinary profit Capital investment in October-December last year increased for the first time in two
appears to have fallen again due to the renewed “stay home” mood as the Omicron quarters in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, up 3.5% and 3.3%,
strain proliferated, and also because some companies temporarily suspended plant respectively, from the previous quarter. Machinery orders and construction orders,
operations as employees who were infected or were close-contacts of infected leading indicators of capital investment, are also on the rise, as companies gradually
persons had to stay away and isolate at home. resume investments that they had put on the back burner. According to the Bank of
Looking ahead, corporate earnings are likely to recover as restrictions on activities Japan’s Tankan March survey, large companies’ capital investment plans for FY2022
are eased in response to the lifting of quasi-emergency measures. That being said, will increase substantially compared to pre-COVID levels. Companies are expected to
rising resource prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are expected to put maintain a positive investment stance, with the recovery trend in capital spending set
downward pressure on earnings through higher costs. Although ordinary profit is to continue.
expected to increase in FY2022, reflecting the recovery in economic activity following
Figure 4-1 Current Profits of Japanese Corporations Figure 4-2 Current Profits Forecast by Figure 4-3 Business Fixed Investment of
Oil Price Level (FY2022) Japanese Corporations
(Trillion yen) (Change in current profits, %)
10 (CY2015=100) 製造業
Manufacturing
25
125 非製造業
Non-Manufacturing
8
20 120
6
JRI forecast 115
15 4 ($96/barrel)
110
2
10
105
0
5 100
▲2
95
▲4 2015 16 17 18 19 20 21 (Y/Q)
0
2005 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
(Y/Q) (Crude oil price, dollar/barrell) of The Ministry of Finance.
Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance.
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
of The Ministry of Finance. of The Ministry of Finance.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
Note: All industries except for financial services and insurance.
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-4-The pace of recovery in employment and incomes is slowing
◆ Employment recovery is dragging its feet ◆ A decline in non-regular employment boosts average wages
The number of workers in February was unchanged from the previous month. Total cash payrolls in February increased 1.0% year on year (YoY), and although
Although the unemployment rate improved by 0.1 points from the previous month to the positive trend continues, mainly due to the slow recovery in non-regular, i.e.,
2.7%, the employment situation remained severe as the number of involuntarily part-time, employment, for which wage levels are low, the environment surrounding
unemployed persons increased for the fourth consecutive month and the number of wages remains harsh. Although the rates of wage increases demanded during in
furloughed workers climbed again as the period of application of quasi -emergency this year's shunto spring wage offensive were generally higher than last year, it
measures was extended. In the accommodation/food services sector, which was appears that only a small number of companies raised wages by the 3%+ level that
forced to operate with shorter hours, the share of furloughed employees in the total the government had requested of the business community.
workforce rose to 8.1%. Looking ahead, as consumption activity gradually begins to normalize, non-regular
Looking ahead, the employment situation is expected to improve as activity employment is expected to increase, exerting downward pressure on average
restrictions ease. However, the pace of improvement in employment is likely to wages.
remain moderate due to high levels of uncertainty concerning the infection situation
going forward. For example, the pace of decline in the number of new infections
has slowed recently.
Figure 5-1 Number of Employees and Number Figure 5-2 Number of Lodging and Figure 5-3 Contributions to Change Rate of
of Unemployment Rate Restaurant Businesses Closed Nominal Wages
(%)
(10,000 (10,000 Scheduled salaries Non- scheduled salaries
就業者数（左目盛）
Number of employees (left scale) 所定内給与 所定外給与
persons) (%) persons) (overtime pay)
6,800 Unemployed rate (right scale)
失業率（右目盛） 3.2 100 3 Spesial salaries
特別給与 Total cash eamings
現金給与総額
(bonuses)
6,780 2
3.0 80
6,760
1
6,740
2.8 60
6,720 0
6,700 2.6 40
▲1
6,680
2.4 20 ▲2
6,660
6,640 ▲3
2.2 0
6,620
▲4
6,600 2.0 ▲ 20 2018 19 20 21 22
2019 20 21 22 2020 21 22 (Y/M)
(Y/M) (Y/M) Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Health, labor and Welfare.
The Minustry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The MInistry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-5-Personal consumption picks up, but high prices due to the invasion of Ukraine pose a risk
◆ Personal consumption is showing signs of recovery level during the April-June quarter, and a re-imposition of quasi-emergency
Consumer spending is down due to the spread of COVID since the beginning of measures will be avoided. If this proves to be the case, the recovery in personal
the year and the accompanying application of quasi-emergency measures. There consumption is expected to become clearer again.
has been a renewed drop in foot traffic to retail and entertainment establishments, However, attention needs to be paid to the negative impact on consumer
and moves to refrain from service consumption, including dining out and travel. spending of rising resource prices and market turmoil in the wake of Russia's
On the supply side, cuts in production of automobiles and other goods as well as invasion of Ukraine. It is estimated that households of two or more people will bear
store closures due to employees who were infected or were close-contacts of an increased burden of about 5,300 yen per month from higher consumer prices,
infected persons isolating at home have put downward pressure on consumption. mainly for energy, and that the decline in stock prices since the beginning of the
However, since late February, both business activity and services consumption year will depress personal consumption by 0.2% through the asset effect. If the
have picked up slightly amid a decline in the number of new infections. invasion of Ukraine becomes a quagmire, leading to another surge in resource
◆ The normalization of economic activity has provided clearer prospects prices and a further decline in stock prices, the scenario that consumption will
of a recovery in consumption begin to recover from the COVID pandemic as economic activity normalizes could
Although the outlook for the COVID infection situation is highly uncertain, the be disrupted.
assumption is that the number of new infections will settle down to a controllable
Figure 6-1 Consumption Based on Figure 6-2 Consumer Prices and Forecast Prices Figure 6-3 Monthly Increase in Burden per
Credit Card Settlements Household Associated with Price
(Yen) Increases
(％) (％)
10 9,000
6 Main scenario
メインシナリオ
One year forecast prices(median)
1年後の予想物価（中央値）
5 8,000 High oil price scenario
原油高シナリオ
5 Core CPI
コアＣＰＩ
0 7,000
▲5 4 6,000
▲ 10 5,000
3
▲ 15 4,000
2
▲ 20 3,000
▲ 25 Service consumption 1 2,000
サービス消費
(JCB Consumption NOW, compared to 2018)
▲ 30 （ＪＣＢ消費NOW、2018年対比） 1,000
The number of people visiting retail 0
▲ 35 小売・娯楽施設の人出
and entertainment venues 0
(compared to the first 5 weeks in 2018)
（2020年初５週比） Households
二人以上世帯 with 2 or 単身世帯
Single household
▲ 40 ▲1 household members
2020 21 22 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
(Y/M)
(Y/Q) Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on data of The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
JCB Consumption Now, Google. The Bank of Japan and The MInistry of Internal Affairs Note: Main scenario is $96 on WTI basis, high oil price scenario
and Communications is $150.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-6-Topic: New travel styles have taken root amid the COVID pandemic
◆ The COVID pandemic has led to new travel demand annual revenues to twice the pre-COVID level by attracting travelers from nearby
Consumers have been refraining from traveling since the spread of COVID began. areas to their single-unit lodging facilities, while others have attracted tourists by
Looking at the number of total domestic overnight stays, there was a sharp drop in putting out information about hidden tourist attractions.
2020, and the low levels continue in 2021 (-46.1% compared to 2019, pre-COVID). With no end to COVID in sight, this new travel demand may take root as people
However, the spread of COVID has also triggered new travel demand. Comparing seek to reduce the risks of infection associated with crowds and lengthy journeys.
travel destinations by place of residence before and after COVID erupted, it is However, since such demand means low per-person travel expenditures, the
possible to spot two trends: 1) travel that avoids human density (decreased travel challenge for the future will be to increase the per-trip spend by offering new
from rural and tourist areas to large cities) and 2) travel that avoids long journeys activities while still curtailing the risk of infection.
(increased travel within the same area as the place of residence).
◆ A low-risk travel style has become popular
This style of travel has proliferated throughout the country in the forms of
“microtourism,” meaning trips to nearby places, and “undertourism,” meaning
travel to off-the-beaten-path spots. Some municipalities have doubled their
Figure 7-1 The Number of Total Domestic Figure 7-2 Change in Travel Destinations by Figure 7-3 Travel Expenditures for Domestic
Overnight Stays Place of Residence Before and Trips
After The COVID
(100 million Guest nights)
6 (Yen per perspn)
(Yen per perspn)
56,000 24,000
5
place of residence 54,000 22,000
＼travel destinations
Large cities Rural Tourist areas
4
52,000 20,000
3 Large cities 68%→74% 20%→17% 12%→9% 50,000 18,000
48,000 16,000
2
Rural 60%→50% 34%→47% 6%→4% 46,000 14,000
1
44,000 12,000
2019
コロナ前 2021
コロナ後 2019
コロナ前 2021
コロナ後
0 Tourist areas 33%→18% 7%→5% 60%→78% （2019年） （2021年） （2019年） （2021年）
2015 16 17 18 19 20 21 Overnight trip(left scale) Day trip(right scale)
(Y/M) 宿泊旅行（左目盛） 日帰り旅行（右目盛）
(CY)
Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data Source: The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. based on the data
of The Japan tourism agency. of The Japan tourism agency. of The Japan tourism agency.
Note1: Red is a transfer from rural areas and tourist areas to
large cities. Blue is the movement of the same area as
the place of residence. Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-7-Prospects for Japan's Economy - Projected Real GDP Change; 2.4% for FY2021 and 3.0% for FY2022
◆ High levels of positive growth will appear from the April-June quarter ◆ Growth rate will be +3.0% in FY2022
In the January-March quarter, services consumption was down due to a renewed The core CPI rose for the sixth consecutive month in February, with the YoY rate of
“stay home” mood following the outbreak of the Omicron strain and the application of change standing at +0.6%. Although mobile communications charges continued to
quasi-emergency measures. Furthermore, real GDP growth appears to have slowed fall sharply, higher energy prices pushed up the overall figure.
to an annualized rate of 0-1% as the sharp increase in the number of infected Although inflation fears have been growing recently against the backdrop of soaring
persons and close-contacts suppressed output in the manufacturing sector. resource prices and a weakening yen, companies are cautious about passing on
In April-June, services consumption is expected to increase again as economic prices to consumers, and the likelihood of inflation accelerating significantly across a
activities begin to normalize, thanks in part to the lifting of quasi-emergency wide range of goods and services is low. However, the core CPI is expected to rise
measures. A recovery in manufacturing production activity, reflecting the easing of to 2% on the back of higher energy and food prices and a smaller decline in mobile
supply constraints, is also expected to boost exports and capital investment, communications charges.
resulting in higher growth.
However, attention needs to be paid to the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine ◆ Prices of goods rise for sixth straight months
on the Japanese economy. At this point, we maintain the view that the recovery will The core CPI rose for the sixth consecutive month in February, with the YoY rate of
become clearer as economic activity normalizes following the COVID pandemic, but change standing at +0.6%. Although mobile communications charges continued to
the recovery scenario could be disrupted if the situation continues to deteriorate, fall sharply, higher energy prices pushed up the overall figure.
causing resource prices to rise even higher or remain high, or if the European Although inflation fears have been growing recently against the backdrop of soaring
economy sees a significant downturn. resource prices and a weakening yen, companies are cautious about passing on
prices to consumers, and the likelihood of inflation accelerating significantly across a
◆ Growth rate will be +3.0% in FY2022 wide range of goods and services is low. However, the core CPI is expected to rise
Growth rates for FY2021 and FY2022 will have been (will be) +2.4% and +3.0%, to 2% on the back of higher energy and food prices and a smaller decline in mobile
respectively, meaning that there will have been two consecutive years of higher communications charges.
positive growth on the back of a recovery in economic activity in the aftermath of the
COVID pandemic. The pace of growth will slow significantly to +1.3% in FY2023,
reflecting the normalization of economic activity.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
-8-Figure 8 Projections for GDP Growth and Main Indicators of Japan ( as of April 9, 2022 )
(% changes from the
(seasonally adjusted, annualized % changes from the previous quarter) previous fiscal year)
CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 CY2024
FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3 4～6 7～9 10～12 1～3
(Actual) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection) (Projection)
Real GDP ▲ 2.8 4.6 0.5 6.7 3.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.4 3.0 1.3
Private Consumption Expenditure ▲ 3.8 10.0 ▲ 1.2 7.3 3.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.6 3.3 1.2
Housing Investment ▲ 6.3 ▲ 3.8 2.0 3.8 2.9 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 ▲ 1.1 1.2 0.5
Business Fixed Investment ▲ 9.3 1.4 5.3 6.7 4.8 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 1.4 3.8 2.9
Private Inventories (percentage points contribution) ( 0.4) (▲ 0.5) ( 0.1) ( 0.7) ( 0.4) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.1) ( 0.2) ( 0.0)
Government Consumption Expenditure 4.5 ▲ 1.4 1.4 2.8 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.3 0.4
Public Investment ▲ 11.6 ▲ 14.4 2.5 7.8 4.8 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 1.5 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 ▲ 7.6 0.5 0.0
Net Exports (percentage points contribution) ( 0.4) ( 0.9) (▲ 0.3) (▲ 0.3) (▲ 0.1) (▲ 0.1) (▲ 0.1) ( 0.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.0) (▲ 0.0) ( 1.0) ( 0.0) (▲ 0.0)
Exports of Goods and Services ▲ 1.2 3.8 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 12.6 3.4 3.0
Imports of Goods and Services ▲ 3.8 ▲ 1.5 4.5 5.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 6.3 3.0 2.9
(Ref.) Domestic Private Demand (percentage points contribution) (▲ 1.2) ( 3.8) ( 3.2) ( 4.4) ( 3.6) ( 3.2) ( 3.2) ( 3.0) ( 3.0) ( 2.6) ( 2.6) ( 12.6) ( 3.4) ( 3.0)
(Ref.) Public Demand (percentage points contribution) (▲ 3.8) (▲ 1.5) ( 4.5) ( 5.2) ( 3.6) ( 3.4) ( 3.2) ( 2.7) ( 2.7) ( 2.6) ( 2.6) ( 6.3) ( 3.0) ( 2.9)
(% changes from the
(% changes from the same quarter of the previous year) previous fiscal year)
Nominal GDP ▲ 0.1 ▲ 0.9 ▲ 0.4 0.6 3.2 3.4 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 2.8 1.9
GDP deflator ▲ 1.2 ▲ 1.3 ▲ 1.3 ▲ 1.6 ▲ 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 ▲ 1.2 ▲ 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) ▲ 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.5
Unemployment Rate (％) 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.3
Exchange Rates (JY/US$) 110 114 116 122 123 124 124 124 123 122 122 112 123 123
Import Price of Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 73 80 87 111 106 100 93 90 86 84 83 77 102 86
Source: The Cabinet Office; The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; The Ministry of Finance.
The projection figures are based on those of The Japan Research Institute, Ltd.
Note : "▲" indicates minus.
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy May 2022
The Japan Research Institute, Limited
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