Monthly Investment Report - Tycuda Group
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Tycuda Group
January 2020 Report
Monthly Investment Report
At the Tycuda Group we strive to keep our clients up to date and educated on current market conditions,
our investment strategies, stock highlights, and anything else we think you might enjoy. In our monthly
investment report, you will find all this information bundled in a single package, delivered right to your
inbox. If there are any topics you want us to cover or have interest in please don’t hesitate to send us an
email or give us a call!
"When we are saying this cannot be accomplished, this cannot be done, then we are short-changing ourselves. My
brain, it cannot process failure. It will not process failure. Because if I have to sit there and face myself and tell
myself, 'You're a failure,' I think that is worse, that is almost worse than death."
Kobe Bryant
What’s Going on Around Us
We were deeply saddened by the news on Sunday, January 26th of the 9 killed in the Calabasas helicopter crash that
included Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gianna. Why did it feel like we were mourning a friend? It feels impossible for
someone with such mental and physical fortitude to be taken down this way. Kobe reminds us to compete every day, to love
your family, to love your friends. Getting home safely each day is not a guarantee
In a world of mixed messages, the following is commentary from Brooke Thackray. He illustrates some of the mixed
messages and selective data that is used to propagate messages to investors. We are learning that we are in an age where
it’s necessary to question everything we are told in the news and from professionals. ““Muddling” economy leads to
moderate stock market potential the stock market has been plodding higher on mixed signals from the economy. Strong
Nonfarm payrolls one month and weaker than expected the next month, increasing wage growth one month and slowing
the next and PMI numbers both stronger and weaker than expected.
January Click HERE to access the
Investment Report 01 Tycuda Performance
webpage.
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02 you Leede Jones Gable
client login.
03 Fear and Greed Index
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for informational purposes only; they do not
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The mixed signals are not just limited to the US. Europe and Asia have also been showing mixed economic signals. There is
no question that 2019 was a strong year for the stock market, despite the mixed signals in the economy. Both bears and
bulls are using selective data to build their respective cases for their projections for 2020. It is doubtful that the S&P 500
will be able to put in a comparable performance in 2020 as it did in 2019. It can still perform well, but expectations should
be tempered due to a muddling economy. The stock market can produce much higher than average returns over a two or
three year period without strong economic reports, but this usually happens when the economy is in a bottoming process
and investors are slow to see the improving economic conditions. As perceptions “catch up” to the reality of improving
economic fundamentals, the stock market continues to perform well in successive years. This was the case in 2009 and
2010. The economy is currently not in a bottoming process where mixed signals tend to be the norm. The economy may be
topping, but most would agree that it is not bottoming. As the economy muddles along, a follow-on year of exceptional
returns is not likely.” – Brooke Thackray, Thackray Newsletter Jan 2020.
What is up with the Coronavirus out of China?
It’s disrupting the travel industry, multiple businesses, and it is spreading fear, and so goes the market with the TSX falling
142 points and New York’s Dow Jones down more than 450 points on Monday January the 27th. As fear grows over the
Wuhan coronavirus, it is now becoming a global economic headwind. Canada’s 5-year bond yield fell sharply to a three-
month low, signaling that mortgage rates are likely headed lower as well. “…the new coronavirus is going to put fixed
mortgage rates on sale,” Rob McLister wrote in the Globe and Mail. He pointed to the economic impacts contagions can
have, such as the 2003 SARS epidemic, which dragged Canada’s GDP down by a tenth of a percentage. “The present
contagion creates yet another risk for Canada’s economy,” he wrote, adding it follows a somber Bank of Canada rate
announcement last week in which the Bank indicated it will be “watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is
more persistent than forecast.”
The Center for Disease Control* has recommendations on how to avoid and deal with the virus.
*External links are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an endorsement or an approval by Leede Jones
Gable Inc of any of the products, services or opinions of the corporation or organization or individual. Leede Jones Gable Inc. bears no responsibility for the
accuracy, legality or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.Stocks of Interest This month’s stock of interest is Bombardier. Not because it’s interesting, but because it is a poster child for questionable analysts in the investment industry. Full disclosure, we have owned Bombardier, our technical process got us into the stock and it also got us out relatively unscathed. But for most, it has been a very painful stock to own. Below are a few quotes taken from the recent Bloomberg article 'Sell is a four-letter word': Why Bay Street got Bombardier so wrong “Analysts’ sentiment has been an almost-perfectly contrarian indicator for [Bombardier] shares over the last fifteen years,” said Brian Madden, a Toronto-based portfolio manager and senior vice-president at Goodreid Investment Counsel, in an email to BNN Bloomberg. Madden said it has been about two decades since he last owned the stock. “Sell is a four- letter word,” he added. “Many on the buy side have come to interpret hold as actually meaning sell.” Norman Levine, the managing director of Portfolio Management Corp., similarly said analysts’ recommendations should not be taken at face value. Sell should mean sell if you already own a stock, or [it means] short it. But the Street is afraid to say that,” he wrote in an email to BNN Bloomberg. “If an analyst puts a sell rating on a stock, many companies stop communicating with that analyst and its firm.” I personally don’t understand why anyone would put their professions and reputations at risk? Wait, I do know. I recently attended the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) 2020 Forecast Dinner in Vancouver. Guest speaker was non-other than Steve Eisman. Steve Eisman is an investor best known for having shorted the housing market*and profiting from the 2007-2008 financial crisis. In the film The Big Short, Steve Carell’s character Mark Baum was based on Steve Eisman. Mr. Eisman quoted the following at the CFA dinner: “Incentives Trump Ethics Every Time.” Consequently, designations such as the CFA which many analysts have are proving of little comfort to many these days. Source: Quotestream Professional 4.0 *External links are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an endorsement or an approval by Leede Jones Gable Inc of any of the products, services or opinions of the corporation or organization or individual. Leede Jones Gable Inc. bears no responsibility for the accuracy, legality or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.
Trades of Interest
Security Approximate Buy $ Sell $ Approximate Comments: price/return data is based on the
Hold Period Gain/Loss time and price of purchase of security in model
identified in each comment. Returns will vary
depending upon inception of each client’s
account and other factors.
XPO 3 months $84.54 Still 6.5% XPO* is a top ten global provider of
Logistics holding transportation and logistics services, with a
Inc. (XPO) highly integrated network of people,
technology and physical assets. We hold XPO in
our Tactical US Composite.
CAE Inc. 10 months $29.75 Still 33% CAE* is a worldwide leader in training for the
(CAE) holding civil aviation, defense and security, and
healthcare markets. We hold CAE in our
Tactical Canadian Composite.
Lightspeed 1 month $42.35 Still 2% From day 1 it's been about much more than
POS Inc. holding transactions; we set out to help entrepreneurs
(LSPD) work smarter, make data-driven decisions, and
create the best possible experience for their
customers.* We hold LSPD in our Tactical
Canadian Composite.
*External links are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an endorsement or an approval by Leede Jones Gable Inc of
any of the products, services or opinions of the corporation or organization or individual. Leede Jones Gable Inc. bears no responsibility for the accuracy, legality or
content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.
What is the Tycuda Group up to?
Jen will be going on maternity leave early March. Starting March 1st, we welcome Lisa Alexis to help cover while Jen is
away. Lisa joins us with years of industry experience and we look forward to having her join our team!
Interesting podcasts or articles that are worth your time
I can think of few activities I like better than cycling, but the challenge many weekend warriors struggle with is how to eat
properly. Check out this video for some great insight if you keep gaining weight no matter how hard you train. Is It Better
to Train Fasted? | Fasting for Cycling Explained: https://youtu.be/Jop-k1PAzEc
No doubt you questioned yourself or were by others wanting to know about your New Year’s resolutions. Have a listen to
Neil Pasricha on making happy habits, then make 2020 a happier place: https://pca.st/xuvhy4qq
Everyone needs some good news in their day: https://informationisbeautiful.net/beautifulnews/
*External links are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an endorsement or an approval by Leede Jones
Gable Inc of any of the products, services or opinions of the corporation or organization or individual. Leede Jones Gable Inc. bears no responsibility for the
accuracy, legality or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.Disclaimer: All information and charts used for this report, including Featured Canadian Dividends, Featured American Dividends and Featured Commodities Driven Dividends, are courtesy of QuoteStream, Bloomberg, Google Finance, Yahoo! Finance and Morningstar, Inc. Prices and other numbers associated in this newsletter are accurate as of the date of publication. The comments and opinions expressed herein reflect the personal views of Miles Clyne. They may differ from the opinions of Leede Jones Gable Inc. and should not be considered representative of the research beliefs, opinions or recommendations of Leede Jones Gable Inc. The information included in this document, including any opinion, is based on various sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed and Leede Jones Gable Inc. does not assume any liability in providing it. The information provided is current as of the date appearing on the document and Leede Jones Gable Inc. does not assume any obligation to update the information or give a description of further developments relating to the securities or material discussed. It is for information only, is subject to change at any time, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. The information presented here and any financial service being offered is directed only at persons who are residents of a Canadian province or territory where Leede Jones Gable Inc. is licensed. Leede Jones Gable Inc. is not permitted to recommend buying, selling or holding securities of any issuer to which it is related, and in the course of a distribution, to which it is connected, unless it makes a complete statement of its relationship, if any. Leede Jones Gable Inc. is not permitted to recommend buying of any secondary market securities of an issuer for whom it is actively engaged as an underwriter of a new issue. Leede Jones Gable Inc., their affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may buy, sell, or hold a position in securities of a company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may also perform financial advisory services, investment banking or other services for, or have lending or other credit relationships with the same. Directors, officers or employees of Leede Jones Gable Inc. may serve as directors of any company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries. © Leede Jones Gable Inc. 2018. Member CIPF and IIROC.
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