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Colliers International Office Middle Markets Throughout the twists and turns of 2020, Colliers International Office Middle Markets team have worked alongside our clients to create and seize opportunities to maximise the potential of your commercial property investments. We’ve worked together to embrace changes in your business and help you achieve profitable outcomes for your immediate and future investment needs. Now, with over 24 months of data, we have greater clarity on the ramifications the COVID-19 pandemic has had on Australia’s Office Middle Markets in 2020. Positioning us as the number one team in the market to accelerate your success into 2021 and beyond. Through our diligent market tracking over the past two years, we have built a somewhat clear picture of how COVID-19 has impacted transaction numbers, capital values, interstate and overseas investment, as well as what actions need to be taken to add-value to your commercial asset in 2021. In previous reports, we have categorised the Office Middle Markets between $20-$100 million, but due to a 53% decrease in transactions numbers YOY the data captured in this report will analyse freehold office assets from $5 -$100 million. Experts in Office
A national overview on the Australian Office Middle Markets. Over the past 12 months the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) It comes as no surprise as offshore groups cope with the the Metro Markets as businesses focus on talent retention has gathered significant momentum across the world, COVID-19 impacts in their domestic markets, the ability to and outer major office hubs with strong transport links. bringing with it, major health implications and volatility in physically access property opportunities in Australia and financial markets and global economies. Whilst the effects changes to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Investment appetite for metro office locations has already of COVID-19 peak and taper, the long-term impact on approvals. come to fruition as 75% of transactions took place in the markets and economies are still unknown. Metro Markets in 2020. Sales data can be found on the According to a survey on office occupancy conducted by following pages of this report. From January to November 2020 we witnessed a 53% the Property Council of Australia (PCA), office occupancy reduction in sales transactions and a 54% decrease in levels were below or around 50% across the major office Colliers research shows workers still need offices to capital investment. Despite this, market confidence has markets as at July-2020. However, office workers have collaborate and connect, but with the increase of working increased throughout the second half of 2020, with a started to return to the office and as such occupancy levels from home, the functionality and size is expected to number of key sales (highlighted in this report) taking have increased across Brisbane CBD (61%), Canberra change. place. This suggests positive sentiment for commercial (63%), Adelaide CBD (73%) and Perth CBD (77%) as at investors and should restore market confidence in Q1 October-2020. Sydney CBD (40%) is witnessing a slower Throughout this report we have provided an analysis of 2021, providing Australia’s management of the virus return to the office and at the time of the survey Melbourne national sales data; a considered review on each market; continues as is. Fortunately for commercial office markets, CBD (7%) was still in lockdown due to their second wave and shared our insight into the conversations we are values have tightened as limited supply has been taken to of the virus, however, restrictions have since eased and a having with our clients. Whilst figures report an obvious market. Assets which did go to market, held their value, return to the office will happen somewhat slowly pre-Xmas stall in the market over the past 11 months, we strongly saw a flurry of offers and restored confidence amongst and gain momentum early in the New Year. believe the resilience of Australia’s Office Middle Markets vendors. will carry optimism and activity well in to 2021. We predict ‘hub and spoke’ workplaces will be back on the There has been a reduction in offshore capital transactions agenda for many large organisations in 2021, albeit which over 2020, in line with a reduction of overall transaction model of spoke is yet to be determined (satellite offices, volumes. Offshore purchasers as a percentage of overall WFH etc). It is expected that a more distributed workplace Matthew Meynell transactions has decreased from 27% in 2019 to 20% in model could combine city office hubs and smaller more Head of Investment Services Australia 2020. flexible spoke offices located in metropolitan markets +61 413 988 878 closer to residential areas. This will likely provide greater leasing opportunities and greater investment demand in
Transaction Data 2020 YTD * There were 68 transactions, totalling $2.12 billion in Unsurprisingly, 51 of the 68 transactions took place in Most impacted was Victoria, which suffered a 76% the Office Middle Markets from January 2020 to 30 the Metro Markets totalling $1.41 billion. Australia’s CBD decrease in transactions and a 71% decline in sales November 2020. This represents a 53% decrease in and City Fringe markets continue to be tightly held, 17 volumes. This can be largely attributed to the state’s transactions and a 54% drop in sales volumes over the assets transacted for a combined total of $712.7 million, second lockdown and a reduction in investment from same period nationally in 2019. compared to $1.8 billion worth of assets in 2019. onshore and offshore Asian groups. Overview Transactions Sales Volume Avg Initial Yields (%) Total NLA Capital Values Total 68 (-53%) $2,125,502,878 (-54%) 5.75% (-8bps) 316,844 (-55%) $6,708 (4%) CBD 17 (-67%) $712,708,333 (-60%) 6.05% (90bps) 118,338 (-53%) $6,023 (-16%) Metro 51 (-47%) $1,412,794,545 (-49%) 5.66% (-50bps) 198,506 (-57%) $7,117 (17.3) CBD and Metro Analysis: 1 Jan - 30 Nov 2020 Vs 1 Jan - 30 Nov 2019 (% change) $41.9m $27.7m the average price of a CBD asset the average price of a Metro asset The following data can be attributed to off-shore capital: Purchasers Vendors Middle Market transactions to offshore groups were down from 29 to 8 (-72%) YOY. This equates to a reduction of $897 million (-69%) in capital. Transactions 8 3 12% of total 2020 transactions Sales Volume $432,033,333 $157,500,000 Despite this, the average sale price increased 18% from $45.8 million in 2019 to $54 million in 2020. Country of origin: 20% of total 2020 sales volumes
Colliers International Office Middle Markets team are currently market leaders with 26% market share. State Transactions Sales Volume Avg Initial Yields (%) Total NLA Capital Values National 68 (-53%) $2,125,502,878 (-54%) 5.75% (-8bps) 316,844 (-55%) $6,708 (4%) NSW 23 (-47%) $759,990,000 (-54%) 4.84% (-2bps) 89,650 (-47%) $8,477 (-12%) VIC 11 (-76%) $391,640,000 (-71%) 4.72% (6bps) 49,085 (-75%) $7,979 (13%) QLD 14 (-53%) $549,679,545 (-19%) 6.79% (-33bps) 80,360 (-39%) $6,840 (33%) SA 14 (-26%) $320,833,333 (-38%) 6.81% (-27bps) 80,466 (-38%) $3,987 (1%) ACT 6 (-25%) $103,360,000 (-73%) 6.62% (-61bps) 17,283 (-79%) $5,980 (30%) State Analysis: 1 Jan - 30 Nov 2020 Vs 1 Jan - 30 Nov 2019 (% change) Vendor Disposal Analysis 2020: Purchaser Acquisition Analysis 2020: 31+29+1710831 42+19+15942 Transactions: Sale Volume: Transactions: Sale Volume: 10% 31% Syndicate $651,000,000 10% 37% Syndicate $849,000,000 HNW / Family Office $481,000,00 HNW / Family Office $444,000,000 15% 30% Institution $458,00,000 15% Developer $301,000,000 Developer $ 292 ,000,000 19% Institution $267,000,000 HNW Investor / Corporate Syndicate Institution Developer Owner Occupier Listed Fund Unlisted Fund Family Office
How As the first continent in the world to experience the effects of the COVID-19 New South Wales Transactions across New South Wales (and the rest of COVID-19 pandemic, the financial implications of Asia’s lockdowns have been felt worldwide. No more so than in Australia’s the country) have stalled as a result of the FIRB approval process. In the Sydney CBD alone, two assets are currently subject to FIRB approval and are yet to exchange - and has impacted Office Middle Markets. another has recently fallen over, which will be bought back to the market in 2021. Australia’s Despite fundamentals remaining stable compared to other asset classes, there has been a reduction in offshore capital transactions as a percentage of total transactions Whilst transaction volumes in the Office Middle Markets have been subdued, in the Capital Markets space there local and have been a number of transactions either complete or from 27% in 2019 to 20% in 2020. currently awaiting approval from FIRB. These transactions include: According to Colliers Research, whilst only accounting for inbound 12% of all Middle Market sector transactions, Asian capital accounted for 20% of total YTD sales volume in 2020 for office assets. • 45 Clarence Street, a 32,000sqm commercial building located on the western corridor of the Sydney CBD. investment The asset sold to fund manager Peakstone, who currently run their headquarters from Singapore; On 29 March 2020, the Treasurer announced a temporary measure that monetary thresholds would be reduced to from Asia? • 60 Miller Street, North Sydney, transacted to Hong $0, meaning that all commercial property transactions by Kong group Huge for $273 million, at a 3 per cent foreign investors would be subject to FIRB approval. This premium book value; and has significantly reduced the competitiveness of foreign buyers, delaying the sale process by up to six months. • China Investment Corporation (CIC) has exchanged a conditional acquisition of an additional 50% stake Despite transaction volumes being down, market in Sydney’s Grosvenor Place for $925 million from sentiment remains strong, in fact, Australia’s recovery and Dexus and Canada’s CPPIB. This transaction will be management of the pandemic has further cemented the seen by many as the bellwether for the FIRB’s views country’s reputation as offering a healthy environment on acquisitions by Chinese State Owned Enterprises. with economic and geopolitical stability. This can be demonstrated through the average purchase price for The common element in all three transactions has been assets transacted by Asia-based purchasers rising 18% the vendor, Dexus, who has recycled a total of $1.7 billion from $22.9 million in 2019 to $55.6 million in 2020. worth of prime office assets to offshore Asian investors. We are witnessing offshore investors seeking to deploy capital into Australia, seeking longer WALE assets, with the average acquisition offering a 5.63-year WALE. This contrasts with the average WALE at the time of acquisition by onshore investors of 4.87-years, a 0.76 yrs spread, which implies that domestic purchasers are more willing to acquire assets which will require active management. Interestingly, the assets divested by offshore vendors in 2020 had an average WALE of 3.08 year, a 2.55-year Experts in Asia Markets spread against acquisition.
Victoria Queensland As the volume of assets bought to market dramatically On an annual basis Queensland has typically seen between Confidence in the Queensland market is also boosted by decreased with the onset of COVID-19, so did the interest 35-40% of our office transactions over $10 million trade to the significant infrastructure spend across the state, in from some of Victoria’s wealthiest and most active Asian Asia-backed investors. particular the recent opening of the second runway at purchasers. The strict Stage 4 lockdown across Victoria, Brisbane Airport. The project will see Brisbane Airport combined with international border closures, caused a Queensland were quick to react to the pandemic, with operating on a 24hour basis, matching the current capacity near seven month standstill and 71% reduction in capital the majority of the state seeing minimal impact therefore of Hong Kong Airport. The airport is forecast to see YTD. As a state popular with both onshore and offshore enabling a quicker return to “business as normal”. Despite international travel from Asia increase once international Asian buyers, it is unsurprising Victoria has experienced border restrictions impacting inspection capacity for borders reopen. the sharpest decline in figures. interstate and offshore investors, we were nimble with our strategies, as displayed in the recent sale of 33 Herschel As Victoria sat back and watched the rest of the country Street, Brisbane City ($9.25 million). emerge from lockdown, transactions begun to occur across the Eastern Seaboard (albeit marginally) and as a This asset was previously marketed by a competitor in Q4 result sentiment started to show positive signs. Through 2019 which failed to yield a sale. Through collaboration communication and education with our clients we primed between our Office Middle Markets and Asia Markets the market for a “re-launch” of Victoria. This included teams we were able to attract the attention of the local notable campaigns such as: operations of a mainland-China developer and execute an off market sale. • The on-market sale of 139 Collins Street, a high-profile CBD building which caused a stir in the market. The With the announcement of the domestic borders reopening Louis Vuitton boutique store with an office component, on December 1, we predict a surge of activity by our Asia is situated on the corner of Collins and Russell Markets clients in Q1 2021. This particularly applies to the Streets. It generated local, national and international onshore groups from New South Wales and Victoria who interest, installing confidence in vendors across the have new interest in investing in Queensland following the market and displayed to the world that Victoria was state’s positive performance. back open for business. The influential campaign successfully transacted to an offshore Singaporean investor for an offer over $65 million, outbidding all local offers. This same group has an additional $1.5 billion of active capital, which they are looking at place in Victoria at the start Contact Colliers Asia Markets experts: of 2021, demonstrating that Asian buyers have re- engaged with the market and are seeking prime CBD and Metro assets. • The recent transaction of 190 City Road, Southbank, is further testament to this interest, having received Steam Leung Joseph Lin Zhenni Lu Leon Ma Tony Wang strong onshore Asian interest. It sold to a local Asian National Director National Director Manager Associate Director Manager investor for an unconditional price of over $18 million New South Wales New South Wales New South Wales Victoria Queensland despite the current development environment. +61 412 236 138 +61 452 070 980 +61 433 230 625 +61 417 070 725 +61 439 577 777
New South Wales Sydney CBD End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? In 2020 only one asset has exchanged and settled thus far. The Sydney CBD office market in January 2020 (prior 2020 has seen four properties in the Sydney CBD Three other properties have been exchanged, all subject to to the pandemic) had very low vacancy at 3.9%. Since exchanged with only one having settled to date being FIRB approval, and one of these has recently fallen over. It then most tenants have re-evaluated how they intend on 139 Elizabeth Street at $46 million. The other three have must be noted that prior to COVID-19 there was a relative occupying their office space and as a result some tenants been awaiting FIRB approval and include a 50% interest shortage of assets for sale as most Sydney CBD owners have chosen to sublease space, which totalled 175,106sqm in Grosvenor Place at $925 million; 45 Clarence St at tend to be long term holders, and Sydney properties have (as at Sept 2020). $530 million; and 191 Thomas St at $80.08 million. The performed well over a long period. Property has been latter sale has fallen over as the buyer did not receive a producing more attractive returns than alternative asset PCA OMR vacancy as at Jul-20 is 5.6% and as a result, response from the FIRB within the designated contractual classes. Since COVID-19 hit, owners have been reluctant owners have increased incentives from an average of 20% time period. to place their assets up for sale as uncertainty prevailed. to between 25-30%, thus lowering net effective rents. We Likewise, buyers retreated for many months until the forecast the rental trough occurring by June 2021, which Generally, and depending upon tenant covenants, valuation effects of COVID-19 on the leasing market became more should be when all businesses will have determined their headline prices have fallen by 5% for prime grade assets apparent. We now have far greater visibility on where space requirements. (Premium & A grade) and 10% for secondary assets. rental levels are landing and buyers are now starting to Whilst yields have generally remained unchanged, the re-engage to acquire assets. We expect total sublease space to increase to approx. major changes to valuations have been seen in the 200,000 sqm and a further reduction in net effective increases in incentives thus lowering net effective rents rentals, which will occur via incentives increasing and assumptions of longer let up periods for vacant space. marginally or face rents falling. Rental growth forecasts have also been tempered. Transaction Overview: 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 1 -92.3% 13 Sales Volume 46,000,000 -85.6% 318,487,500 Average Initial Yield 3.80% -44bps 4.24% Total NLA 2,818 -86.6% 21,055 Capital Values 16,324 7.9% 15,126
A Vendor’s perspective Sold: Throughout 2020, owners focused on rent abatement and 114 Castlereagh Street & rent relief for tenants. This has continued throughout the 139 Elizabeth Street second half of the year albeit to a much lesser extent. The pandemic raised uncertainty about the working culture of the future, however following restrictions easing we saw Date: September 2020 confidence return and each month we are witnessing Price $46,000,000 more white-collar workers returning to the office. Although there has been a reluctance by owners to test the market Vendor: Private Investor in 2020, as confidence has returned and interest rates have fallen, more owners are planning to divest. We have Purchaser: Fife Capital (onshore) not seen forced sales this year as was initially expected by Yield: 3.8% some buyers at the beginning of the global pandemic, and it is highly unlikely that we will see any in 2021. NLA: 2,818sqm $/sqm: 16,323/sqm A Purchaser’s perspective Comprising two adjoining Sydney CBD freehold Immediately following the introduction of COVID-19, buildings in the dynamic Midtown precinct, 114 buyers withdrew from the sales market but kept a very Castlereagh Street and 139 Elizabeth Street. The close watch on the leasing market. As the leasing market assets extend to 2,818sqm* of NLA and benefit saw rental levels fall, buyers are now gearing up for from dual street frontages and dual Titles providing acquisitions in the new year. Investors are motivated by ultimate optionality. recent falling interest rates and the fact that Sydney CBD The initial focus of most investors will be for assets that by properties still offer relatively high returns in comparison virtue of the tenant covenants and quality of the buildings to cash and a highly priced stock market. offer minimal risk and capital expenditure. As time Contact the Sydney CBD experts: progresses and the leasing market stabilises and improves, investors will be seeking properties that exhibit value add What does 2021 look like? characteristics. We expect sales volumes to gradually increase in the first The Central Sydney Planning Strategy will be gazetted in half of 2021 until the full extent of vacancy and softening the coming months and this will provide a definite roadmap rents become visible. Once visibility is clear we expect a for all participants in the Sydney CBD office market. far greater number of buyers to be seeking assets of all Vince Kernahan Steam Leung grades. Providing there are sufficient owners willing to National Director National Director The infrastructure works in Sydney that have been sell, sales volumes will increase significantly in the second +61 438 262 497 +61 412 236 138 completed, have added considerable amenities to the city half of 2021. and the Sydney Metro stations and network, will further enhance our liveable city. We will continue to provide advice to both owners and investors on the leasing market and our forecast on valuation changes. Joseph Lin Tom O’Neill National Director Manager +61 452 070 980 +61 410 377 412
New South Wales Metropolitan Markets End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? The New South Wales Metro Market has been the highest Metro Office Markets in Sydney are in a unique position office space. There continues to be a reasonable disparity performing in the country throughout 2020, transacting 22 to capitalise on changing work trends in a post COVID-19 in tenant activity across the various Sydney markets. of 51 Metro sales nationally. Despite this, stock has been world, as tenants seek to cut the commute, resulting in a Macquarie Park, with an average A grade face rent of limited, with transactions down 26.7% YOY. growing demand for office locations across Metropolitan $425/sqm (the lowest average rent in the Metro Market) Sydney. is the only market to continue to record reasonable tenant New South Wales has successfully controlled the spread demand and moderate annual growth in net effective rents of the virus. Assets which have been taken to the market Backed by significant infrastructure projects to boost the (2.4%). Parramatta’s A Grade market is currently achieving have experienced solid buyer enquiry with the North Shore economy, major rail upgrades and projected government $570 to $600 net and the B Grade market is achieving market seeing significant movement. 122 Walker Street spending is seeing markets such as Parramatta and North $495 net. Tenant enquiry is low with the vacancy rate North Sydney sold for $35 million with a yield of 3% and Sydney raise purchaser confidence in these markets. expected to rise in 2021. sqm rate of $18,909. Particularly North Ryde has had strong sales activity throughout early 2020, as yields have remained stable and All other markets recorded a deterioration in net effective Other North Shore markets like North Ryde continue to see arguably firming. rents and increased incentives, with those markets closest vacancy levels fall which has further fuelled the attraction to the CBD (South Sydney, CBD Fringe and North Sydney) to the market for buyers. Sales in Parramatta have been As New South Wales “gets back to work” we expect seeing the biggest impact. slow in 2020 with only one sale at 16 Wentworth Street. working behaviours to normalise in 2021 and beyond, A second sale at 27 Argile is due to exchange. Both sales however it is likely that many occupiers will use the Newcastle has seen another strong year. Non-Newcastle were to onshore Asian investors. experience of 2020 to re-define the way they occupy businesses are now considering moving into the location, with increased enquiry. The market has seen an increase in incentives and downtime allowances for vacancies are a Transaction Overview: consideration for any short-term expiry risk. 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 22 -26.7% 30 Sales Volume $713,990,000 -45.8% $1,318,190,244 Average Initial Yield 4.90% -19bps 5.09% Total NLA 86,832 -41.5% 148,427 Capital Values $8,223 -7.4% $8,881
A Vendor’s perspective Sold: The majority of vendors have been reluctant to sell in 118-122 Walker Street 2020 as they seek clarity on the prevailing economic North Sydney conditions. With the opening of both Victorian and Queensland boarders, it is expected that vendors who have been holding off will take their property to the market in Date: June 2020 early 2021 with purchasers from Melbourne booking trips Price $35,000,000 to Sydney. We anticipate Brisbane based buyers will do likewise and 2021 is expected to have a busy start to the Vendor: Talish Pty Ltd & M & P Read year. Purchaser: Stockland A Purchaser’s perspective Yield: 3.0% NLA: 1,851sqm Unsurprisingly purchasers are very cautious of long-term tenants still on rent relief. The fear is will these tenants $/sqm: 18,909/sqm still trade in the same capacity in 2021. We have also seen an increase in buyers wanting to understand the The assets were acquired ‘In One Line’ by the tenant’s business and the longevity with a preference for adjoining owner, Stockland who will explore an A assets underpinned by government tenants. Government Grade office development across 110 Walker Street, backed tenancies have become very popular and yields 118 Walker & 122 Walker Street. We have been on these types of properties may have even compressed advised that the amalgamated 2,301m² site (110- with purchasers willing to pay a little more for the security 122 Walker Street) can accommodate a ~65,000 of tenure. Not withstanding this, buyers from Melbourne (GFA) commercial office development. and Brisbane are now booking trips to Sydney, now that boarders have opened. Contact the Sydney Metro experts: What does 2021 look like? With very limited stock available in 2020 it is expected In fact, PCA stats show that Newcastle is the strongest that vendors who have delayed the sale of their property performing metropolitan office market in Australia, with due to border restrictions and limited O/S activity will put tenant demand increasing as businesses across the state John McCann Tom Appleby their asset up for sale in 2021. seek well connected metro locations and regional cities National Director Associate Director such as Newcastle for back of house operations and on- Sydney West Sydney North This is due to tenant activity being most impacted in inner shoring call centres. +61 418 230 792 +61 405 693 696 city locations. A divergence is occurring in impacts to face rents and incentives, depending on the ownership make up of each market. In markets where there is a high proportion of private ownership, we are expecting some deterioration in net face rents, while in more institutional markets (eg. Parramatta, Macquarie Park and Peter Macadam even Newcastle) we expect incentives to rise in order to Director in Charge generate tenant activity due to back-fill vacancy increasing Newcastle in 2021. +61 402 074 159
Victoria Melbourne CBD & City Fringe End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? The Melbourne CBD commercial property market As Melbourne emerged from lockdown in Q4 2020 the Challenging market conditions throughout 2020 commenced 2020 in a robust position with strong office first round of public sales campaign came to market. One demonstrated office investments whilst strong leasing demand and a record low vacancy rate of 3.50%. of the first marque listings offered for sale was 139 Collins fundamentals maintained rental income and capital values. These strong fundamentals made the Melbourne market Street, Melbourne. The fully leased investment generated Properties in prime Melbourne CBD locations such as very attractive to domestic and international investors more than 350 domestic and international purchaser Collins Street, that are managed and maintained to a high seeking to purchase Premium, A and B grade assets. It enquires and sold for a significant premium above standard performed the best. The year also demonstrated also drove a wave of new major office developments. valuation. This campaign demonstrated the level of pent up the importance of strong working relationships between purchaser demand seeking prime Melbourne CBD safe- landlords and tenants. Conversely, properties with poor Therefore, the Melbourne CBD market was in a robust haven investments and provided other vendors confidence fundamentals did not fare as well. position to weather an extended lockdown from March to offer assets for sale. through to November 2020 due to COVID-19. During Other significant factors shaping the Melbourne CBD this period transaction activity paused whilst landlords Current campaigns are performing well and an increase in market throughout 2020 are record low interest rates, a focused on defensive investment strategies aimed at completed transactions throughout Q4 2020 and the first favourable exchange rate for offshore investors and influx tenant retention, preservation of rental income and debt half of 2021 is anticipated. Whilst Melbourne CBD and City of capital transferring from volatile equities markets to reduction. Fringe end of year 2020 transaction volume is historically commercial property. low this was due to a “black swan” event and the market is well positioned for a steady recovery. Combined with scarcity of supply and unsatisfied purchaser demand these factors provide favourable conditions for the Melbourne CBD and City Fringe market looking forward 2021. Transaction Overview: 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 3 -80.0% 15 Sales Volume $202,150,000 -63.9% $560,599,999 Average Initial Yield 5.16% 224bps 2.92% Total NLA 17,050 -64.5% 48,002 Capital Values $11,856 1.5% $11,679
A Vendor’s perspective Sold by Colliers International: Over the second and third quarter of 2020 many vendors were naturally hesitant to list their property for sale, as the 139 Collins Street uncertainty of the virus brought businesses across Victoria to a halt. Date: November 2020 Throughout September and into October, as we emerged Price ~ $65,000,000 from our Stage 4 lockdown, we have noticed an increase Vendor: Private Family in confidence towards the commercial market, as interest from vendors seeking to divest before the year end has Purchaser: Singaporean Group surged. With minimal stock entering the Melbourne Yield: Confidential CBD and City Fringe Market for several months, it is unsurprising that vendors are eager to take advantage of NLA: 1,661.80sqm* purchasers’ desire to place capital and acquire property before 2021. $/sqm: Confidential This has caused increased momentum throughout the In September 2020, the Colliers team proudly brought Melbourne CBD and City Fringe markets, as vendors have to market 139 Collins Street, the Louis Vuitton Collins witnessed successful on-market campaigns such as 139 Street boutique, via a 5-week EOI campaign. The Collins Street, Melbourne, 190 City Road, Southbank and campaign generated exceptional interest with over 350 701 Swanston Street, Carlton. enquiries, more than 420 video views and multiple press released regarding the asset. This resulted in A Purchaser’s perspective 15 initial offers being received and a final sale price in excess of $65 million - a truly outstanding result. Throughout 2020 purchasers have remained eager to acquire prime assets in the Melbourne CBD and City Fringe at what was expected to be a ‘discounted price’. We Contact the Melbourne Metro experts: saw high enquiry numbers and received multiple offers on prime campaigns, in some cases driving the price higher What does 2021 look like? than vendor expectation. We anticipate that landlords will remain defensive with In September, the low cost of debt and stabilisation of their portfolio strategy. The objective of this will be to COVID-19 cases in Melbourne has seen a flourish in retain tenants and a secure income stream. confidence which has resulted in an increase in pricing. Daniel Wolman Oliver Hay This has ensured that the end of 2020 will restore the As we adapt to the new ‘norm’ and Victoria gets back to National Director National Director strong 2019 momentum that was left behind in the first business, we expect to see an increase in transactions +61 412 957 839 +61 419 528 540 quarter of the year. as investors look to rebalance their portfolios. Buyer competition will drive prices in sought after Melbourne Assets positioned in desirable locations across Melbourne CBD and City Fringe hotspots as local, interstate and CBD and City Fringe hotspots, have remained sought-after internal investors compete. investments for both local and offshore purchasers and we expect this trend to continue into 2021. Matt Stagg Director +61 409 411 300
Victoria Metropolitan Markets End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? The Melbourne Metropolitan office market has experienced Melbourne Metropolitan office net face rents have Bunnings have leased circa 13,900sqm of space in a a relatively subdued year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, remained relatively steady throughout 2020, with brand 19,500sqm building, which shows the confidence in the with Melbourne’s Stage 4 lockdown having an impact on new A Grade and existing A Grade office buildings City Fringe office market in particular. Following the easing both tenant and investor demand. proving to be more resilient than B Grade office buildings. of restrictions in Melbourne in October, we have seen an However, an increase in incentives across all precincts and increase in tenant enquiry and inspections throughout the There has been limited stock on offer with vendor’s building grades has had a more pronounced impact on net metropolitan office market. reluctant to take their properties to the market due to effective rents over the last six months. the uncertainty of COVID-19 and the inability to inspect There has been a lack of sales activity throughout 2020 during Melbourne’s Stage 4 lockdown from June to Leasing activity over the 3rd quarter of 2020 was severely with only $189.5 million office sales recorded to date October. Pleasingly there are still significant levels of constrained as tenants were prevented from inspecting (above $10 million). Due to the lack of sales, yields have capital available for ‘safe’ opportunistic and prime assets buildings as a result of Melbourne’s Stage 4 lockdown. remained steady with no significant shift witnessed in the Melbourne Metropolitan Market, with many investors to date. However, occupancy levels, and impacts to seeking offices located in core locations with long WALE’s However, one significant transaction during this period face rents, incentives and let up times, are likely to to quality tenants. was the Bunnings deal at Growthpoint’s newly completed have a negative impact on secondary capital values in building at Botannica Business Park. 2021. Beyond this, we expect good capital growth as Metropolitan market demand conditions recover and potentially outperform pre-COVID-19 levels. Generally, valuation headline prices have remained relatively steady with cap rates remaining firm across the Transaction Overview: Metropolitan markets due to the lack of market activity. 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) Major changes to valuations have been seen in discount rates firming which reflects changes in office leasing 2020 (%) 2019 assumptions including decreased rental growth forecasts Transactions 8 -73.3% 30 and increased incentive forecasts over the cash flow period. Sales Volume $189,490,000 -76.5% $807,888,000 Average Initial Yield 4.43% -100bps 5.43% Total NLA 32,035 -78.0% 145,703 Capital Values $5,915 6.7% $5,545
A Vendor’s perspective Sold by Colliers International: The first half of 2020 saw vendors focusing on rent abatement and rent relief for tenants and this has 173 Burke Road, Glen Iris continued throughout the second half of 2020 to a lesser extent. Date: May 2020 Price Circa $30,000,000 Melbourne’s Stage 4 lockdown period raised uncertainty about working culture in the future, however following Vendor: Bingen Pty Ltd restrictions easing we have seen confidence bounce back Purchaser: Time & Place/ Fabcot to the market with white collar workers returning to the office and tenant demand increasing. Yield: 2.32% There is still a reluctance by vendors to be the ‘first’ to NLA: 3,383sqm test the market, however we do note that we have not $/sqm: Circa $8,868/sqm seen forced selling/receivership sales this year as initially expected at the beginning of the global pandemic. Situated on the high-profile corner of Burke Road and Hope Street, the Commercial 1 zoned site A Purchaser’s perspective boasted a site area of 4,305sqm. The property was purchased by a developer who plans to develop There has been limited Melbourne Metropolitan office stock the site for supermarket and multi-level residential come to market in 2020 however purchaser’s behaviour use. The strong trading results of supermarkets have changed, with purchaser’s now very selective on the throughout the global pandemic has driven opportunities they engage on, running the ruler over sitting developers to pay premium prices above what tenant’s harder than ever and looking critically at every office investors and occupiers are willing to pay for aspect of the property more so than previous years. assets such as 173 Burke Road. What does 2021 look like? Contact the Melbourne Metro experts: We expect sales activity to increase significantly in Q1/ New developments in City Fringe locations such as Q2 2021 due to pent up demand and the continuing low Cremorne, South Melbourne and Collingwood are expected interest rate environment which will appeal to both owner to be targeted by CBD tenants looking for quality office occupiers and investors. accommodation close to where they live. Institutional investors will be active in the City Fringe following the decentralisation expected from CBD tenants to the City Peter Bremner Ted Dwyer Investor confidence is expected to quickly return for National Director Director the metropolitan office market following an increase in Fringe. +61 412 326 942 +61 411 312 165 occupancy, rental abatements finishing up and pent up supply and demand following a relatively quiet 2020 for office investment sales. Following the Government stimulus packages winding down, we expect to see more tenants and vendors to be placed under financial stress, with receivership sales likely to occur. Rachael Clohesy Associate Director +61 466 918 158
Queensland Brisbane & Gold Coast End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? A Vendor’s perspective Transactions in 2020 can be very much characterised as We are noticing a divergence in yields, with significant In the first eights months of this year most vendors pre-and post-COVID-19; all transactions which settled in capital flight into long WALE, defensive, income-stabilised opted to withdraw their assets from sale, or those who Q1 exchanged in late 2019. Since the onset of COVID-19 assets putting downwards pressure on yields for these were considering a sale hit pause on this process. With there have been 2 CBD Office Middle Market transactions assets. Conversely, short WALE assets with higher a substantial lack of investment-grade assets on the negotiated and settled post-COVID in Brisbane, and one vacancy and elevated tenant risk profiles are now being market in the first half, supply has been tight whilst capital each on the Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Sunshine Coast and priced more conservatively by the market, and thus yields available for investment remains high. Those vendors Townsville. and capital values are both softening for secondary assets who’ve committed to sale processes in Q3 & Q4 have as the leasing risk is re-priced. experienced elevated levels of enquiry in their assets. However, Colliers International have participated in, and are aware of a number of off-market transactions which Face rents are being supported, however our leasing are expected to settle by the end of Q4. The most active team advise that incentives have begun to increase and a purchaser groups have again been syndicators and private number of tenants have indicated they are reviewing their investors, driven by a desire for yield and with access footprints beyond current expiry. to fixed three and five year debt at unprecedentedly low levels. We are experiencing strong enquiry from In the Brisbane market the most active tenant size is sub- syndicators, with almost all of our clients in this sector 500sqm SME’s, with the median lease deal being 360-380 indicating they are experiencing a highly liquid capital sqm. Our clients holding well presented B-grade assets raising environment. which cater to these tenants have been able to capitalise on this demand, and generate positive leasing momentum against the trend in the A and premium-grade space. Transaction Overview: 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 14 -53.3% 30 Sales Volume $549,679,545 -19.2% $680,072,156 Average Initial Yield 6.79% 133bps 7.12% Total NLA 80,360 -39.2% 132,217 Capital Values $6,840 33.0% $5,144
A Purchaser’s perspective Sold by Colliers International: The overwhelming sentiment we are receiving from purchasers is that they are growing frustrated with the 33 Herschel Street, Brisbane lack of ‘real’ opportunities in the market – there have been a number of assets put in front of purchasers in which the vendors were reluctant to the sale discussion. Anecdotally Date: September 2020 we are aware of several purchasers who have expended Price $9,250,000 time and costs pursuing opportunities that weren’t really there, and hence the feedback we have received is that Vendor: Asty Pty Ltd (HNW Private) most groups will now focus only on assets where the vendor is genuine. Purchaser: Maple Development Group Yield: 6.27% With highly liquid capital markets and lack of investment- grade opportunities for sale at an institutional level, we NLA: 1,749 are also seeing some of the larger fund managers pivot $/sqm: 5,288/sqm (NLA) towards smaller assets and both metropolitan and regional markets. Colliers International Asia Markets and Middle Markets team were pleased to introduce a What does 2021 look like? mainland-Chinese backed developer to this asset on an off market basis. The purchaser was attracted With Queensland state borders having opened on In the Brisbane CBD and Metropolitan Markets we expect to the infrastructure development underway in the December 1 and the level of capital available for investment to see brought to market several assets held by value- North Quay precinct. The purchaser is considering to remain high for the foreseeable future, our forecast for add investors who have successfully stabilised and a number of development outcomes for the site the Queensland Middle Markets sector in 2021 is positive. repositioned these holdings into core-plus investments. including a boutique office project. Syndicators in particular will be active as they experience Competition for core assets with credit-quality tenant a highly liquid capital raising environment, and already covenants will remain strong and we may see some Contact the Queensland experts: in 2020 we have witnessed a number of new groups firming of yields in this sector. entering the Queensland market and we expect this trend to continue. At a macro-level elevated levels of inbound migration from interstate are expected, particularly into the More than ever our outlook is contingent upon the leasing seachange markets such as the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, sector and tenant space demands as we expect to see Toowoomba and North Queensland. Accordingly we Sam Biggins Hunter Higgins Tom O’Driscoll headwinds in certain Metropolitan Markets and CBD anticipate more capital flowing into office assets in these Director Director Director sectors, particularly assets which cater to larger corporate markets with private HNW investors and syndicators being Brisbane Brisbane Brisbane occupiers which have adopted a semi-permanent WFH the most active. +61 410 979 075 +61 406 997 936 +61 438 510 573 policy. Assets with higher vacancy or a weaker forward occupancy outlook will be more conservatively priced Our final anticipation is the staggered return of Asian as incentive and let up assumptions increase, however capital, which has typically accounted for 35-40% of office the level of opportunistic capital seeking value-add transactions annually. Those groups with local operations investments may partially offset this softening. or investment partners will be first movers with new capital still being heavily influenced by the ability of a Steven King James Crawford decision-maker to enter the country. Director in Charge Director Gold Coast Gold Coast +61 417 789 599 +61 438 262 497
Australian Capital Territory Canberra End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? The Canberra office market has benefited significantly Canberra’s vacancy rate has continued its measured Office values have subsequently remained somewhat from its exposure to the Commonwealth Government who decline to 9.9%, which is worth noting as the lowest level stable in Canberra and in some instances demonstrated occupies ~50% of all office NLA, subsequently sheltering since 2012. Landlords continue to closely monitor the uplift, with the ongoing compression in capitalisation rates landlords from any potential volatile swings in vacancy outcome of several significant Commonwealth Government offsetting increasing allowances for incentives, tenant rates, incentives and rents. It is arguable that Canberra’s briefs for either new premises or to renew in current downtime and lower-than-average growth rates. reliance on the Government has effectively ‘crisis proofed’ accommodation. The outcome of these briefs will have a the office market and minimised investor exposure, as material impact on the CBD office market in particular and evidenced by the measured growth over the past 15-20 create a raft of potential divestment opportunities in 2021. A Vendor’s perspective years despite global influences. Canberra has been widely predicted as one of the few Vendors have faced the dilemma in H2 2020 of whether to In contrast to our national counterparts, it is expected that office markets likely to see positive rental growth in 2020, hold quality assets, which often underpin their portfolios, for the 2020 calendar year Canberra will have witnessed despite the impacts of COVID-19. or look to capitalise on the significant buy-side demand positive - albeit minimal - rental growth and further that has emerged for Canberra assets and the likely price compression in capitalisation rates. There have been limited transactions that confirm the premiums achievable. acknowledged tightening in capitalisation rates, however based on the significant off-market buyer activity, low The overwhelming response has been for vendors to levels of available debt and record offers tabled for Middle delay campaigns and revisit in 2021; however, this is Markets assets a further ~25-50bps in yield compression increasing the likelihood of numerous assets being offered has occurred throughout 2020 for specific assets. to the market simultaneously in Q2 & Q3 2021. Proactive vendors are presently considering off market approaches Transaction Overview: or positioning assets for early 2021. 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 6 -25.0% 8 Sales Volume $103,360,000 -73.0% $382,526,281 Average Initial Yield 6.62% -61bps 7.23% Total NLA 17,283 -79.2% 82,995 Capital Values $5,980 29.8% $4,609
A Purchaser’s perspective Sold by Colliers International: Purchaser behaviour has remained somewhat consistent with the H1 activity for Canberra Middle Markets assets. 1 Thynne Street, Bruce There continues to be unprecedented levels of enquiry Date: March 2020 from both domestic and offshore sources seeking top- Price $39,300,000 tier, long-WALE investments that represent an effective annuity during a volatile 2020. The ACT market, being Vendor: B&T Investments Pty Limited underpinned by the Commonwealth, arguably presents Australia’s most stable investment proposition, and Purchaser: KM Property Funds has become a major focus for capital sources in 2020. Yield: 6.28% Notwithstanding, however, we have seen increasing appetite for ‘value-add’ opportunities again in H2, with NLA: 5,848sqm investors taking a positive long-term outlook for the $/sqm: $6,720 Canberra leasing market. What does 2021 look like? 1 Thynne Street, Bruce completed in H1 remains the standout sale for Canberra’s Middle Markets in 2020. As at November 2020 we have witnessed six transactions in the Middle Markets space amounting to a total sales The 5,848sqm office asset was 100% underpinned volume of $103 million. The rolling five-year average for by the AIHW, with a 9+ year WALE with fixed annual Canberra suggests ~9-10 major deals per annum with an growth of 3.00% p.a. Completed off-market by Colliers approximate average volume of ~$370 million. International, the result reflects the strong demand for Our team predicts that the Canberra Middle Markets will secure income and top-tier assets in the ACT, despite At the start of 2020 our Canberra Middle Markets team return to the average annual transaction numbers, with the impact of COVID-19. had predicted a potential record year for transactions the possibility of exceeding this amount based on current based on the outcome of some impending Government vendor and purchaser activity. With a number of mooted briefs, key tenant renewals and the attractive economic campaigns set for early 2021 we can expect strong listing conditions underpinning the ACT market. Whilst this has activity for long-WALE and value-add opportunities and Contact the Canberra experts: not played out due to the impact of COVID-19, Canberra are also likely to see a number of major assets (>$100m) has remained an exceptionally popular investment offered in H2 2021. destination as evidenced by the strong international buyer interest and 15+ major off-market offers sourced by the Canberra is well poised to weather major challenges and Colliers team in 2020, exceeding $1.8b. outperform National counterparts in times of uncertainty. We expect that in 2021 Canberra will remain as one of Due to uncertainty in other major markets, the the most highly sought-after investment destinations, Matthew Winter Paul Powderly overwhelming trend in Canberra has been for vendors and a worthwhile consideration for all capital sources. Director State Chief Executive to focus on stabilising their assets rather than offload, For vendors it is worth considering whether now is the +61 432 344 684 +61 413 122 877 typically due to these featuring secure Government tenant best time to capitalise on this unprecedented interest covenants that underpin their office portfolios and provide and record low yields or risk competition with a flurry of ongoing cashflow. potential assets in H2 2021 and beyond.
South Australia Adelaide End of Year Review 2020 How has 2020 shaped the market? We have witnessed $320 million transact across Face rents have remained firm in Adelaide, despite a slight Adelaide has a significant supply of new stock coming Adelaide’s CBD and Metro office markets. A vast majority increase in tenant incentives. Adelaide’s “self proclaimed” to market with 108 Wakefield Street (13,000sqm), 83 of these transactions were legacies of pre-COVID-19 defensive office market, has classified 56% of tenants Pirie Street (30,000sqm), 62 Currie Street (9,000sqm), negotiations, however investors have continued to seek out (largely government) as ‘defensive’ against COVID-19. Innovation Centre (35,000sqm), Festival Plaza South Australia as a safe place to live, work and invest - (40,000sqm) and 60 King William Street (39,000sqm) all following the state’s proactive response to the pandemic. It has become obvious that a two-tiered market exists potentially becoming available between 2020 and 2023 We have never witnessed more interest in the Adelaide in Adelaide as a result of COVID-19. Firstly, we have (total of 166,000sqm) and therefore we expect a flight to market, particularly from East Coast and Singaporean witnessed a slight softening in yields for secondary quality for office tenants exciting second grade back fill based investors. grade assets, evident in the sale of 75 Hindmarsh Square space. which sold at a slight discount to its pre-COVID-19 levels. Secondly, defensive assets (i.e. those leased to government During the height of the pandemic, there were limited or health occupiers) continue to be highly sought after and transactions, making it difficult for valuers to determine yields have subsequently compressed. whether yields had softened. Valuers were making pricing adjustments ‘below the line’ on properties with vacancies. Adelaide hasn’t witnessed the same levels of sub-lease This included increasing the period of time taken to lease space which has occurred on the Eastern Seaboard, which these vacancies and increasing incentives. has helped sustain face rentals despite a slight increase in incentives. Following a number of recent transactions, we have now gathered substantial evidence to suggest that there has been softening in yields across the secondary office market Transaction Overview: and a tightening in yields for A-grade assets, with high 2020 vs 2019 (30 Nov YTD) quality, defensive tenants. 2020 (%) 2019 Transactions 14 -26.3% 19 Sales Volume $320,833,333 -38.0% $518,105,000 Average Initial Yield 6.81% -27bps 7.08% Total NLA 80,466 -38.4% 130,711 Capital Values $3,987 0.6% $3,964
A Vendor’s perspective Sold: Across the second half of the year, we witnessed 75 Hindmarsh Square Vendor’s consolidating their focus to retain tenants, in an attempt to retain the value of their assets. We have seen limited on-market activity for CBD assets, with Date: August 2020 most deals being struck off-market. Only one on-market Price $40,500,000 middle markets campaign took place, being that of 39- 41 Veitch Road, Osborne. The asset had a 10 year lease Vendor: Private Syndicate to a Commonwealth Government tenant with pricing Purchaser: Harmony expectations in the range of 5.1%. Yield: 6.31% Vendor confidence has grown throughout the fringe, as we expect the following assets to transact before the year NLA: 4,795sqm + 72 basement car parks is out; 20 Greenhill Road, Wayville, 119 Greenhill Road, $/sqm: $8,446 6 Greenhill Road, 120 Greenhill Road, Wayville and 64 Greenhill Road, Wayville. Released to the market in early 2020 via an Expressions of Interest process. A Purchaser’s perspective The asset received wide ranging interest and entered Purchasers continue to chase high quality office assets due diligence with an interstate client in the range with security of income being paramount. Financiers have of $42,500,000. This deal subsequently fell over become more cautious in providing funding for office and Harmony (a South Australian based syndicate) purchases, particularly for assets with vacancy or capital acquired the building at $40.5m. expenditure risk. Therefore, there has been a flight to quality in the Adelaide Middle Markets space. Contact the Adelaide experts: What does 2021 look like? With such a large proportion of office transactions taking Whilst to date, we haven’t witnessed any distressed sales place over the course of the preceding five years, with taking place, banks have taken a more cautious approach some assets trading multiple times, 2021 is set to be an since the Royal Commission and we expect to see more of Alistair Mackie Paul van-Reesema interesting year. We are aware of two major CBD office these opportunities become available in 2021. National Director National Director towers that may come to market in Q1 of 2021 and these +61 412 817 977 +61 412 806 994 sales will no doubt set the scene for the balance of the year. The recent rate cut by the RBA is likely to be reflected in yield compression in the Adelaide market for prime grade assets, which could fuel further transactions in 2021, Tom Isaksson Jordan Schmidt however it is expected that transaction volumes won’t Associate Director Associate Director reach the levels we have experienced in the preceding five +61 422 154 570 +61 403 422 762 years.
Adding Value to Commercial Assets in 2021 2020 has been a challenging year across CyberProtect Innovative Workplace Technology Reducing Risk in Smart Buildings Elevating Tenant Experience and Engagement the board with major shifts in how we work and interact with our commercial Landlords and Tenants are benefiting from advances Introducing Neighborhood Curated by Colliers. Developed buildings. in technology that turn properties into smart buildings. with the goal of using technology to make workplaces Millions of sensors have been deployed - the “Internet as intuitive as everything else in our lives. Colliers We’re pleased to see commercial occupancy rates of Things”. These sensors communicate with modern Neighborhood, designed by Lane Technology, is an industry continuing to increase, with metro markets currently sitting smart building control systems to improve security defining platform that makes it easy to offer innovative between 70-90%, and whilst the CBD has been slower to and surveillance, enable environmental controls, while workplace experiences in any building. return, we’re now seeing occupancy sitting around 40%. improving efficiency and sustainability. Remote monitoring and control provides further benefits, with systems Like Colliers International, Colliers Neighborhood knows Feedback from our tenants suggests this is due to staff communicating centrally over the Internet. the value of a seamless tenant experience and aims avoiding longer commutes on public transport with less to provide tenants with a digital passport to navigate access to car parking, and the larger multi-national Understanding the Risks workspaces and access amenities. corporations receiving directive from overseas head offices that staff are to continue working from home temporarily. However, these benefits are not risk-free; building Clients benefit from integrated building systems available There was also a significant reduction in the number systems and IoT devices can be vulnerable to attack, on a single dashboard to streamline day-to-day operations. of tenants applying for COVID-19 rent relief during the particularly where they interface with corporate IT and Colliers Neighborhood can be white labelled and branded October to December extension period, and are already communications systems. Security weaknesses can lead to suit the positioning strategy for each office asset within seeing some tenants making contributions to the deferred to a range of attacks - ransomware, financial losses, brand your portfolio. rental payments. damage, loss of data and Intellectual Property, security breaches and denied access. Through this unprecedented time, we’ve remained Attract and retain tenants focused on bringing a dynamic and innovative approach Colliers International has partnered with cyber security Save time and money to managing our clients’ portfolios to maximise revenue, expert Convergint Technologies, to create a portfolio of Increase data-driven decision making operational efficiencies and asset performance, offering products and services that can assist our clients to meet innovative workplace technology to drive tenant these challenges. Our team includes property experts Create leasing differentiators engagement, reducing risks in smart buildings and who understand technology, and technology experts who Elevate your asset realigning our procurement strategy to help owners understand property. Together with our clients’ IT teams secure more favourable property insurance premium and we can identify risks, recommend best practice solutions, Deliver the future of work policy terms. monitor and protect your technology environment 24/7. The opportunity for integration of building control systems into Colliers Neighborhood is extensive and is dependent on the final arrangement of services.
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