Meeting India's Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge - Climate Policy Initiative
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Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Climate Policy Initiative David Nelson Gireesh Shrimali Shobhit Goel Charith Konda Raj Kumar December 2012 CPI-ISB Report
Descriptors Sector Power Region India Keywords Renewable Energy, Finance, Solar, Wind Related CPI The Impact of Policy on the Financing of Renewable Projects; Supporting Renewables Reports While Saving Taxpayers Money; Improving Effectiveness of Climate Finance Contact Gireesh Shrimali, Hyderabad Office David Nelson, San Francisco Office gireesh.shrimali@cpihyd.org david.nelson@cpisf.org Acknowledgements The authors thank the following for their collaboration and input: Alipt Sharma of GEF, Amit Oke of ICICI Bank, Charlie Donovan of EADA Business School, Don Purka and Sujata Gupta of ADB, Gaurav Malik of Olympus Capital, Harsh Shah of L&T Infra, Robert Collier, Saravanan Nattanmai of Nereus Capital, Srinivas Kara of IDFC, and developers of renewable projects analyzed in this report. The perspectives expressed here are CPI’s own. About the Indian School of Business The Indian School of Business (ISB) was established in 2001 with an aspiration to put India on the global map of management education. In less than a decade since its inception, the ISB has successfully pio- neered several new trends in management education in India, and firmly established itself as a world- class management institution. In 2008, the ISB became the youngest institution to be ranked among the Top 20, in the Global B-school Rankings by the Financial Times, London, and since then has been ranked consistently among the top B-schools globally. The ISB today has a strong pool of research-oriented resident faculty and invites high caliber international faculty from reputed B-schools to teach in its Post Graduate Programme in Management (PGP), Post Graduate Programme in Management for Senior Executives (PGPMAX), and Executive Education Programmes. In addition to teaching, the visiting faculty also participates in collaborative research with the resident faculty. The school has over 4000 PGP Alumni and 13,000 Executive Education Alumni making an impact on business and society across the world. About CPI Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) is a policy effectiveness analysis and advisory organization whose mission is to assess, diagnose, and support the efforts of key governments around the world to achieve low-carbon growth. CPI is headquartered in San Francisco and has offices around the world, which are affiliated with distin- guished research institutions. Offices include: CPI Beijing affiliated with the School of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University; CPI Berlin; CPI Hyderabad, affiliated with the Indian School of Busi- ness; CPI Rio, affiliated with Pontifical Catholic University of Rio (PUC-Rio); and CPI Venice, affiliated with Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM). CPI is an independent, not-for-profit organization that receives long-term funding from George Soros. Copyright © 2012 Climate Policy Initiative www.climatepolicyinitiative.org All rights reserved. CPI welcomes the use of its material for noncommercial purposes, such as policy discus- sions or educational activities, under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. For commercial use, please contact admin@cpisf.org.
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Executive summary In the short term: • The high cost of debt — that is, high interest India’s power sector has two overlapping, historic chal- rates — is the most pressing problem currently lenges — one that has grabbed international headlines facing the financing of renewable energy. Our and another that has largely flown below the radar. financial modeling of actual renewable energy The widespread blackouts that brought much of India projects in India and elsewhere indicates that to a sputtering halt in 2012 were a dramatic signal of a the higher cost and inferior terms of debt in power sector that requires attention. But a challenge no India may raise the cost of renewable energy by less central to India’s future, and arguably much more 24-32% compared to similar projects financed so, is that of the country’s goals for renewable energy. in the U.S. or Europe. The national government’s ambitious goals for solar • Interviews with investors and developers energy, coupled with the country’s rapid progress in suggest that neither the cost nor availability developing wind energy, raise many questions regard- of equity is currently a major problem. In fact, ing the sources and costs of the investment that will be our analysis suggests that when adjusted for needed to install and operate this infrastructure. differences due to the less attractive nature of debt in India, expected returns on equity (ROE) Under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission India may actually be lower than in the U.S. or (JNNSM), grid-connected solar PV capacity increased Europe, despite potentially higher country risks. by 165% in 2011 to reach 427 MW. However, the ambitious targets for 4,000-10,000MW by 2017 and • General Indian financial market conditions 20,000 MW by 2022 may be hard to achieve under are the main cause of high interest rates for current policies and programs, and financing may be the renewable energy. Growth, high inflation, biggest obstacle. Likewise, with 16 GW installed, India competing investment needs, and country had already become the world’s fifth largest market for risks all contribute. A shallow bond market wind by 2011, but ambitious plans for a further expan- and regulatory restrictions on foreign capital sion to 31 GW by 2017 will face similarly daunting policy flows also adds to the problem, while the cost and financing problems. of currency swaps and country risk negate the advantages that could come from access to In this report, Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analyzes the lower cost foreign debt. challenges for designing national policy that will attract the investment needed to spur rapid growth in wind and In the medium to long term: solar energy at a reasonable cost. CPI has conducted detailed financial modeling of actual Indian renewable • A declining availability of debt for renewable projects; numerous interviews with developers, finan- energy projects, whether high cost or not, may ciers, and policy makers; and examined, in depth, the become an impediment. Interviews with lenders idiosyncrasies of Indian financial markets. This report and analysis of debt markets indicate that describes and analyzes the impact of national and state many lenders may be reaching the limit for the policies on various classes of renewable energy inves- amount of money they will lend to the sector. tors, as well as the overall relative costs or benefits of Their withdrawal from the market may restrict policies on the final cost of renewable energy projects. project development. We focus particularly on the cost and availability of • Continued high borrowing by the Government equity and debt, respectively, and the consequent impli- of India and related regulatory restrictions are cations for Indian renewable and financial policy. likely to keep interest rates high. Table ES-1 summarizes the main financing issues facing • Even if the cost of debt goes down, our analysis renewable energy policy currently and evaluates how suggests that loan terms – including short these issues might grow or diminish in importance in tenors and variable interest rates – will become the medium to long term. To summarize its findings: more significant impediments, especially in lower interest rate environments. • Finally, attractive, low cost equity may be less available in the future. First, as debt becomes less available, current equity investors may not A CPI Report I
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge be able to recycle their investment capital into and what that means for the impact of policy, new projects by borrowing against the operating means that policy levers used to decrease projects. Second, as the market matures, many financing costs in the U.S. and Europe have a investors may no longer be willing to invest at less impact in India. relatively low returns in order to establish a • Other developing countries have bridged the strategic foothold, as they currently appear to financing gap in unorthodox but successful be doing in solar photovoltaic (PV) projects. ways. The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) is an especially promising example that Beyond Debt and Equity: deserves further study and consideration by • Regulation and the structure of the Indian power Indian policymakers. sector also raise significant issues. State-level policies – including the financial weakness of As a next step, CPI proposes to investigate potential the state electricity boards that buy much of the policy solutions to bring lower cost, long-term debt into output from renewable generators – increase the Indian renewable energy market. Given that renew- project risk. National policies designed to weave able energy will require some financial support in the state policies together, particularly the recently medium term, until renewable energy costs reach a established Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) degree of parity with conventional sources of electricity, market, do not adequately reflect the realities of we will ask the question: Within a portfolio of policies, financial markets or state-level risks. is it more effective to close the gap between renew- able energy costs and alternatives through subsidies, • Our analysis shows that renewable energy tax benefits, or other support mechanisms, or through policy lessons from the U.S. and Europe may not concessional debt, or a mix of two or more? apply to India’s financial realities. The economy and financial markets in which renewable As part of this investigation, we will explore the mecha- energy policies operate partly determine the nisms used to finance renewable energy in other rapidly effectiveness of these policies. The significant developing economies including China and Brazil. The differences between India and developed world BNDES example should be particularly instructive. financial markets, including the high cost of debt A CPI Report II
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Table ES-1: Current and future impact of major issues in Indian renewable energy finance Negative impact of issue: medium to Now issue LoNg term Equity returns required by investors are reasonable for good projects NONE LOW COST AND TERMS Required returns depend on technology maturity and developer strategy NONE MEDIUM Equity is generally available for good renewable energy projects EQUITY NONE MEDIUM Equity is available from foreign investors but facing a shortage of attractive AVAILABILITY LOW MEDIUM projects Equity availability is heavily skewed towards a few states with good policy MEDIUM MEDIUM regimes and attractive business environments Lack of debt may reduce available equity in the medium term as equity investors LOW HIGH cannot recycle investments from current projects to future investments High general Indian interest rate environment raises renewable project debt cost VERY HIGH VERY HIGH Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable MEDIUM HIGH COST AND TERMS Fixed interest rate debt is rare; market relies on variable rate debt LOW HIGH Debt is not strictly non-recourse as it is usually offered on a relationship basis MEDIUM MEDIUM Shortage of debt may raise its cost in the longer term LOW MEDIUM DE BT Banks limit lending to any one sector for risk purposes LOW HIGH Renewable energy debt is often classified within power or energy sectors, which MEDIUM HIGH are already nearing sector limits Some banks are not lending to renewable projects due to unfamiliarity with AVAILABILITY MEDIUM HIGH renewable energy policy and markets Limits on foreign debt may restrict foreign lending LOW HIGH Technology risk is limiting debt to some technologies MEDIUM MEDIUM State-level policy, the poor financial condition of the State Electricity Boards, and MEDIUM HIGH unfavorable local business environments restrict lending to some states A CPI Report III
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Renewable energy industry trends 2 2.1 Renewable energy development in India 2 2.2 Sources of finance 2 2.3 The cost of renewable energy in India 3 3. Finding equity and raising debt – Two very different issues 5 4. India’s Achilles heel – High cost of debt 9 4.1 The high general interest rate environment in India 9 4.2 Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable 10 4.3 Fixed interest rate debt is rare 11 4.4 Debt is not strictly non-recourse 11 4.5 Availability of debt 12 4.6 Many banks do not lend, or limit lending, to renewable energy projects 12 4.7 Limits on foreign lending - Capital controls on foreign debt 13 4.8 Limits on foreign lending - Interest rate ceilings 13 4.9 Technology risks 14 4.10 State-level issues 15 5. Equity – Ample availability, but can it last? 16 5.1 Cost of equity or required return on equity (ROE) and differentiation between technologies 16 5.2 The availability of equity 17 6. Summary of the state of renewable energy finance 18 7. Government policy framework 22 7.1 Renewable Energy Certificate markets 22 7.2 State-level policy issues 24 8. Policy analysis - Case studies and international comparisons 27 8.1 Case study analysis – India versus the U.S. and Europe 27 8.2 Brazil and China 29 9. Conclusions and Next Steps 31 9.1 Next Steps for Research and Analysis 31 A CPI Report IV
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 1. Introduction In India, the role of development financial institutions (DFIs), a major source of long-term funding for energy As India wrestles with the historic challenge of pro- infrastructure prior to the 1991 financial reforms, has viding enough electricity for its huge population and markedly diminished in recent years. Because of the booming economy, the national government is pursuing deregulation of financial markets, DFIs have been another equally difficult and impressive goal — mark- obliged to compete with commercial banks to raise edly expanding the share of renewable sources in its funds at market rates. This undermined the business energy supply mix. model of the DFIs; many were forced to convert them- selves into commercial banks. This change, combined The government has embarked upon an ambitious with the shallowness of the corporate bond market, has plan, Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, to build left a gap in funding for renewable energy. 20,000 MW of solar power nationwide by 2020. At the same time, India is already the fifth-largest market for In Brazil, by contrast, the Brazilian Development Bank wind turbines, with cumulative installations of 16GW at (BNDES) plays a major role in almost every renew- the end of 2011.1 able project in the country, often by offering long-term loans at below market rates. BNDES’s role in financing This flurry of activity demonstrates the seriousness renewable energy has led to lower prices and, arguably, of India’s intentions. But the scale of these ambitions, enhanced the performance of other policies such as and the financial resources required, raise many ques- wind energy auctions designed to create competition tions regarding the sources and costs of the needed amongst potential wind park developers. investment, about the adequacy of the investment to reach these goals, and the efficacy of that investment in In this paper we analyze the impact of Indian policies on reaching the most suitable projects. the attractiveness of renewable energy investments to various classes of investors, and we assess the overall The question of whether India’s financial system is relative costs or benefits of polices on the fully financed adequately financing the renewable energy sector — cost of renewable projects. We have used detailed and if not, why — is especially poignant in light of the financial modeling of actual Indian renewable projects differences between India’s financing system and those as a key element of this analysis. of Europe and North America as well as developing nations such as China and Brazil. This study does not address the subject of off-grid renewable energy projects, which present different Of course, the challenges of the renewable energy financing challenges and require different policy solu- sector cannot be completely divorced from India’s tions than on-grid renewable energy projects. Nor does overall infrastructure financing challenges. According it discuss in depth the overlap between the financing of to the Planning Commission of India, infrastructure renewable energy and conventional power generation. investment will need to increase from about 8% of GDP CPI will address these topics in future research. in 2011-12 to approximately 10% of GDP by 2016-17. The total investment in infrastructure is required to be over INR 45 lakh crore (USD 1 trillion) during the 12th Five Year Plan period (2012-17). 2 However, the Indian gov- ernment estimates a 30%, or USD 300 billion, gap in the targeted infrastructure investments by 2017, largely due to the lack of long-term finance. 3 Given the emerging nature of renewable energy tech- nologies and business models, financial and regulatory sectors must adapt quickly — a task they have carried out somewhat unevenly. For this reason, the renewable energy sector’s current challenges are especially acute. 1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012 2 An Approach to the Twelfth Five Year Plan, Government of India, Planning Commission, October 2011 3 India estimates a USD 300 billion infrastructure funding gap, Infrastructure Investor, October 2010 A CPI Report 1
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 2. Renewable energy industry Figure 2-1: India wind power installed capacity and future targets trends 12th plan target 2.1 Renewable energy development in India 30,000 Historically, the growth of wind power in India was primarily driven by state-level incentives in conjunc- 31,078 Installed capacity (MW) tion with an accelerated depreciation benefit extended 20,000 by the national Government of India beginning in 1995. 11th plan target Wind power installed capacity increased from 230 MW in 1994-95 to 16,078 MW by 2011, reaching approxi- mately 94% of the 11th plan (2007-12) target. 17,164 10,000 In 2007-11, wind capacity installations increased at a compound annual growth rate of 19.7% as the Government of India introduced additional incentives such as the generation-based incentive (GBI) as well as 0 accelerated depreciation. However, both the acceler- 2006 2011 2012 2017 ated depreciation and the GBI, which comprised 10% Source: BP Statistical Review, 2012; Central Electricity Authority; Ministry of of wind energy incentives,4 expired in March 2012. New and Renewable Energy; India Infoline. Note: Yearly data is at the end of Reaching India’s ambitious target of total wind installed December every year. capacity of 31,078MW by 2017, will now depend upon new mechanisms, including the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) market discussed in Section 7. Figure 2-2: India grid-connected solar PV installed capacity India’s solar power industry began significant growth vs. Phase 1 target only in 2010, when the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) was announced. After the announce- 2,000 ment of JNNSM, grid-connected solar PV capacity increased by 165% in 2011 alone to reach 427MW. However, a failure to address the remaining financ- Installed capacity (MW) JNNSM ing challenges will make the targets set under JNNSM — Phase 2 (4,000-10,000MW by 2017) and Phase 3 Phase I 1000 (20,000MW by 2022) — difficult to achieve. target 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: BP Statistical Review, 2012 Note: Yearly data is at the end of December every year. 4 See section 7. A CPI Report 2
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 2.2 Sources of finance Figure 2-3: Renewable energy investment trends in India A variety of investors finance renewable energy projects 12 in India, including institutions, banks, and registered companies (Table 2-1). Institutional investors are either Investment (billions of USD) state-owned or bilateral and multilateral institutions. Among banks, both private sector and public sector 8 banks are involved. In addition to registered companies, venture capital and private equity investors contribute equity investment. Return expectations of the investors vary according to the sources of their funds and the risk 4 attached to specific projects. During 2006-09, India’s annual total renewable energy investment remained between USD 4 billion and USD 0 5 billion. Investment has risen rapidly since then, from 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 USD 4.2 billion in 2009 to USD 12.3 billion in 2011 Source: Global trends in renewable energy investment 2012 (Figure 2-3). Figure 2-4: Renewable energy investment trends in India by While wind continues to receive the majority of invest- technology ment, solar has seen the highest growth, and the gap between the two is falling rapidly, as shown in Figure 6 2-4. Investment (billions of USD) 4 Wind 2 Solar 0 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bloomberg NEF- UNEP Reports, (i) Global trends in sustainable energy investment 2010. (ii) Global trends in RE investment 2011 and (iii) Global trends in RE investment 2012 Table 2-1: Renewable energy investors (number of institutions) TOTAL ACTIVE IN TYPE OF INVESTOR CATEGORY REGISTERED RENEWABLE IN INDIA SECTOR Public sector banks 26 9 Commercial banks Private sector banks 30 6 Foreign banks 37 - Private equity 51 16 Equity investors Venture capital 180 21 Institutional investors Insurance funds 24 11 Development Banks Development financial institutions* 3 3 *DFIs include national level institutions IREDA, IFCI, SIDBI A CPI Report 3
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 2.3 The cost of renewable energy in India In the case of solar, capital costs in India were 25% lower than those in the U.S. However, most of this cost In some important ways, India has a cost advantage in advantage was eliminated by the lower expected output renewable energy. Labor and construction costs, for per MW, which was likely the result of lower insolation instance, are significantly lower in India than in coun- and higher levels of dust in Rajasthan, where the Indian tries like the U.S. or Germany. Furthermore, India is plant was built, or, possibly the use of less expensive, blessed with renewable resources like wind and sun that but less reliable, equipment. With these two factors are comparable to good locations in other countries. offsetting each other, the Indian solar PV facility was Yet, despite these advantages, the cost of renewable nevertheless 26% more expensive due entirely to the energy can be as high in India as in the U.S. or even sig- higher return requirements for investors in India, that nificantly higher. The difference is often due to financing is, the more expensive cost of financing the project. costs. The two wind projects depict a similar story, although In comparison to conventional power generation the wind project in India is still cheaper, despite the sources such as coal or gas, renewable energy is char- higher financing costs. While these projects do not rep- acterized by a relatively high initial investment, followed resent all U.S. or Indian renewable projects, and rapid by low variable costs. Since a much greater share of the changes to cost and performance lead to constantly cost of energy is determined by the initial investment, changing figures, the comparison itself is indicative of higher financing costs have a disproportionate impact the substantial impact of financing costs on renewable on renewable energy. This puts renewable energy at a energy in India. relative disadvantage in India. The key takeaway is that the renewable projects could Figure 2-5 compares two typical large-scale installations be much less expensive if not for the higher financing in the U.S. against similar projects in India to quantify costs. For more details, see Appendix 4. the sources of differences in the levelized cost of elec- tricity (LCOE), defined as the average cost of electricity over the life of a project factoring in the return required on investments. Figure 2-5: Finance raises the overall cost of renewable energy in India SOLAR PV ONSHORE WIND India’s finance costs increase the cost of energy by 28% India’s CAPEX India’s finance costs lowers costs India’s CAPEX +28% lowers costs increase the cost of energy by 22% -25% +23% -29% -5% +22% Lower output per Higher unit capacity output per raises energy unit capacity costs lowers 100 126 100 energy costs 88 US Levelized India Levelized US Levelized India Levelized Cost of Electricity Cost of Electricity Cost of Electricity Cost of Electricity ($0.19 / KWh) ($0.09 / KWh) Sources include discussions with developers. A CPI Report 4
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Low cost financing of renewable energy projects usually requires both debt and equity investors. However, in India debt and equity investors face very different conditions. When compared to the financing of renewable energy projects in the developed world, in India the relatively high cost and low availability of debt may add 24-32% to the cost of renewable energy projects compared to similar projects in the US, while equity returns have a comparatively minor impact on relative costs. In this section, we analyze the relative impact of the cost and terms of debt and equity on renewable energy project costs and identify a set of issues beyond debt and equity markets that may concern policy makers. This section paves the way for more detailed discussions of debt (section 4), equity (section 5) and other potential policymaker concerns (section 6). 3. Finding equity and raising In India, the differences between debt and equity are particularly striking. In general, we find that equity debt – Two very different appears to be readily available at a reasonable cost, while renewable energy debt is both limited and expen- issues sive. Figure 3-1 highlights the differences between renewable energy debt and equity markets in India and Conditions for renewable finance can be very different developed markets. Note how equity returns in India are depending on the technology employed, the devel- similar to those in the U.S. and Europe, but interest rates oper, geography, or the requirements of the investors on debt are significantly higher. themselves. The most important distinction is between investors in the debt markets (lenders) and those in the To compound the problem, access to potentially lower equity markets (owners). cost international debt is limited due to regulatory barriers, the cost and risks associated with long-term Generally speaking, debt investors are more conserva- currency swaps, and perceived country risks (Section tive, accepting lower returns in exchange for lower risk. 5.6). As a result, the cost of debt to a renewable energy As such, their primary concern is that downsides are project in India will typically be in the 10-14% range, limited; that is, that the project does not fail. Equity as compared to the 5-7% range typical in the United investors are willing to take more risk in exchange for States. Despite the higher cost, debt in India also suffers higher returns, and therefore focus equally on risk and from inferior terms, including shorter tenors and vari- the prospects of a project performing even better than able rather than fixed interest rates. expected. Under most circumstances, a project will be least expensive when it is funded by a mix of debt and Figure 2-5 in Section 2 demonstrates that the financing equity, either at the project level, or through debt and costs added 28% and 22% to the cost of solar PV and equity secured at the corporate level. wind projects, respectively, in India. In Figure 3-2, we take a closer look at the financing component. We begin Renewable energy financing can become costly when by noting that there are many factors that influence the either debt or equity investors demand too high a return total finance cost. Here we highlight five: or when either is simply unavailable. Thus, for both debt and equity we pose two sets of questions: • The cost of debt • Cost and terms: Are the returns investors are • The tenor of debt — that is, the length of time demanding and the conditions they are placing over which the debt is repaid on their investment so onerous as to make the • Whether the debt is variable or fixed project economically unattractive? or; • Extra risk that will be taken on by equity in the • Availability: Is debt or equity just not available? event that debt rates are variable That is, are there enough investors willing to invest or lend to renewable projects in India? • The cost of equity, or the required return on equity (ROE) Significantly, while policy can influence the returns required by equity and debt investors and the availabil- Using the same typical projects described in Figure 2-5, ity of either, different policies are likely to be important Figure 3-2 compares just the financing differences of to different classes of investors. A CPI Report 5
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Figure 3-1: Range of returns on equity and debt costs for renewable energy projects – India versus U.S. and Europe Solar PV onShore Wind Solar Thermal* Solar PV onShore Wind Solar Thermal* 20% 20% DEBT Equity Required Return or Debt rate (% per year) Equity Required Return or Debt rate (% per year) 15% 15% Europe US 10% India 10% 5% 5% EQUITY 0 0 * No data for solar thermal in Europe. Note: Equity is levered equity. Source: Projects in India and US CPI finance paper. the U.S. and Indian projects. To summarize, we find the decreases. If the cost of debt was to decrease following: and the spread between debt and equity expand, we would expect the impact of shorter • In the case of the solar PV projects, the higher debt tenors to increase significantly. interest rate on the debt alone added 19% to the project cost, while it added 10% to the wind • Despite being more costly, the debt terms project. in India are less attractive, particularly the variable interest rate of most debt in India. In • Indian debt tenors are typically much shorter more developed markets, project developers than in the U.S. or Europe. Overall, we have nearly always seek fixed interest debt. When found the shorter debt tenors add between combined with feed-in tariffs, or long-term 3% and 10% to the cost of the project, by power purchase agreements (PPAs) with a forcing more rapid amortization of the loan, fixed price, a fixed interest rate leads to a high and therefore reducing the effective leverage degree of certainty around future cash flows. An over the life of the project. 5 Stated another way, investment with well-defined cash flows is less with shorter-term debt, the average amount risky, and therefore attracts lower cost finance. of debt over the project life goes down and Developers will typically use interest rate swaps project debt has a relatively smaller influence to convert variable rate debt into fixed rate on bringing finance costs down over the life of debt. In India there is no liquid swap market. the project. It is important to point out that debt Therefore, to calculate the cost of the greater tenors are relatively less important in India than uncertainty, we have used the current interest they would be elsewhere given that the spread swap rates in the U.S. and applied them to the between the cost of debt and equity is smaller. debt. At 2%, 10 year swap rates are currently Therefore, the value of maintaining a higher low by historical standards. Nevertheless, this level of debt throughout the life of the project cost adds approximately 7% to the finance cost of solar PV and 4% to the cost of wind on a 5 The solar project used for our analysis had an uncharacteristically long tenor. Therefore, we have adjusted the debt tenor down to 13 years, which would comparable basis. Why do Indian developers be much more typical of Indian PV projects. The result is to increase the accept variable rate debt? See section 4.3 for impact of shorter debt tenors from 3% to 6%. further discussion. A CPI Report 6
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge • The corollary to the lower value of the variable • Finally, as shown in figure 3-1, the cost of equity rate debt is that equity is actually taking on in India is only slightly higher than in the U.S. or more risk. With a fixed price PPA, it is easy Europe, depending on the technology, despite to see how an unexpected rise in the interest the higher underlying country risks. The slightly rates could consume all of the cash flow from higher Returns on Equity add only 3% and 2% a project and wipe out the equity investor. respectively to the total cost of financing the While we have no accurate way of measuring solar and wind project. the cost of the additional risk assumed by the equity investor, we assume that the risk they When all of the adjustments are made to account for take on is equal to the value of the swap used to the differences in terms and tenors, equity ends up compare India debt to U.S. debt. The result is an being less expensive than in the U.S. or Europe, despite exact offset between debt and equity, moving the higher country risks. Meanwhile, the total impact of expected return from the equity column to the debt, including terms and costs, is 24-32% added to the debt column. cost of the project. Figure 3-2: The impact of debt and equity costs and terms in India on overall financing costs compared to a U.S. baseline Debt cost and terms in India Overall, equity cost reduces add 32% to cost of energy LCOE by 4% in India SOLAR PV +30% -7% +7% +3% Percentage increase in India project costs above US project costs (% LCOE) Variable to Equity Equity +20% fixed debt absorbs cost Debt cost +6% variable debt risk Financing in India Shorter debt +28% adds 28% to a tenor project’s LCOE +10% +19% US LCOE Debt cost and terms in India Overall, equity cost reduces add 24% to cost of energy ONSHORE WIND LCOE by 2% in India -4% Percentage increase in India project costs +20% +4% +2% above US project costs (% LCOE) Variable to Equity Equity fixed debt absorbs cost +10% variable Financing in India Debt cost debt risk +10% +22% adds 22% to a project’s LCOE Shorter debt +10% tenor US LCOE A CPI Report 7
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge It is significant that, on an adjusted basis, project Returns on Equity (ROEs) in India are below those in the United States. This implies that equity investors are buying into the market and accepting below rational returns for strategic reasons — thus suggesting that ROEs may rise once the market matures. Beyond the cost and availability of debt lie other distinc- tions with significant implications for policymakers: • Are the cost and availability drivers for Indian renewable energy a function of Indian financial markets in general, or are they specific to renewable energy? • Do the drivers affect all investors, or only foreign investors? • Does the impact depend on the renewable technology, for instance affecting only wind, but not biomass or vice versa? • Does the impact vary by state? That is, do state-level policies and business environments account for differences in cost or availability of investment capital? Sections 4 and 5 focus on important issues that impact the financing of renewable energy in India now and in the future. Eleven of these issues relate to the cost and availability of debt (discussed further in section 4) and six relate to the cost and availability of equity (Section 5). In Section 6 we return to the other issues outlined here, including whether these issues are specific to renewable energy or characteristic of Indian Financial markets in general, whether foreign investors are spe- cifically affected, and whether the impact is different depending upon the technology employed or the state in which a project is built. A CPI Report 8
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 4. India’s Achilles heel – High The starting point for our analysis is the underlying benchmark interest rates for India versus other coun- cost of debt tries. The impact of the financial crisis is clear. Since 2007, benchmark interest rates have fallen significantly 4.1 The high general interest rate in the developed world to stimulate the economy, but environment in India have stayed relatively flat in the rapidly developing economies. India is the only country whose benchmark India is a rapidly growing country. As is typical for interest rates are higher than they were in 2007. Indian rapidly developing countries, growth in India comes interest rates are now higher than each of the coun- with a need for investment in new infrastructure, creat- tries in Figure 4-1 save Brazil and the gap with Brazil ing competition to raise debt; and general inflationary has fallen from 12% in 2005 to 0.5% today. The higher pressures that need to be controlled through higher benchmark rates are, themselves, indicative of the fast interest rates. As a result, benchmark interest rates in growth in India and the multiple competing demands India are significantly higher than in developed coun- for borrowing to meet infrastructure needs and other tries. Furthermore, uncertainty around the Government government borrowing. of India’s future borrowing needs and the value of the Rupee create a longer-term uncertainty that constrains The roughly 7-8% difference between benchmark inter- the development of longer-term debt markets. est rates in India and the U.S. and Europe account for Table 4-1: Summary of issues affecting debt cost and availability Negative impact of issue: see medium to sectioN Now LoNg term High general Indian interest rate environment raises renewable project debt cost VERY HIGH VERY HIGH 4.1 Longer tenor debt is generally unavailable MEDIUM HIGH 4.2 COST AND TERMS Fixed interest rate debt is rare; market relies on variable rate debt LOW HIGH 4.3 Debt is not strictly non-recourse as it is usually offered on a relationship basis MEDIUM MEDIUM 4.4 Shortage of debt may raise its cost in the longer term LOW MEDIUM 4.5-4.10 Banks limit lending to any one sector for risk purposes LOW HIGH 4.6 Renewable energy debt is often classified within power or energy sectors, which MEDIUM HIGH 4.6 are already nearing sector limits Some banks are not lending to renewable projects due to unfamiliarity with AVAILABILITY MEDIUM HIGH 4.6 renewable energy policy and markets Limits on foreign debt may restrict foreign lending LOW HIGH 4.7, 4.8 Technology risk is limiting debt to some technologies MEDIUM MEDIUM 4.9 State-level policy, the poor financial condition of the State Electricity Boards, and MEDIUM HIGH 4.10, 7.2 unfavorable local business environments restrict lending to some states A CPI Report 9
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Figure 4-1: Benchmark interest rates (%), 2005-12 deposits have an average maturity of below three years.7 For this reason, banks in India are not comfortable lending for tenors longer than 5-7 15% years, while the infrastructure sector requires long-term debt of more than 10 years. 10% • Weak bond markets. In 2010, India’s Brazil total outstanding bonds amounted India to 53% as a percentage of GDP China compared to other countries, such as 5% Indonesia Japan (247%), U.S. (176%), Malaysia (76%), and China (60%).8 India is Euro Area lagging far behind other countries 0% US in the corporate debt market, which 2005 2012* accounted for around only 4% of the total debt market in 2011, a *Until May 2012. Source: Trading Economics tiny amount when compared to other countries. The growth of the nearly all of the 5-7% difference in debt costs between corporate bond market in India has been limited renewable energy projects, even when adjusted for the largely due to stringent regulations and under- fixed rate premium (2%+) that the U.S. and European developed financial markets. Government debt should be given. Note that, as we discuss in section regulations restrict investments from banks 4.6, borrowing in the U.S. and European markets to and insurance companies in corporate bonds exploit the lower interest rates is not a perfect, or even and also impose a ceiling on foreign invest- feasible option, as the cost of currency swaps over the ments in rupee-denominated government and life of the loan needed to reduce the exposure to poten- corporate bonds. Under-developed financial tial rupee devaluation consumes nearly all of the inter- markets in India do not offer adequate liquidity est rate differential. That is to say, much of the interest for corporate bonds and risk mitigation instru- rate difference could be considered as risk that the ments, such as credit default swaps. Indian Indian rupee will lose value, or country risk in general. financial markets also appear to lack diversity of investors, which could limit the trading activity 4.2 Longer tenor debt is generally and instruments available. unavailable • Diminished role of Development Financial We observed that the short debt tenors in India play a Institutions (DFI). Several key DFIs were significant part in keeping the costs high compared to established in the 1950s, such as Industrial developed nations such as the United States. Our analy- Development Bank of India and Industrial sis indicates that an increase of debt tenor by seven Finance Corporation of India, which had access years would lead to a decrease of 6% in the LCOE of a to cheap funds from the government and generic solar power project. But long-term debt is not the central bank, and from multilateral and easily available in India for several reasons: bilateral international agencies. They were able to extend low-cost, long-term debt to • Asset-liability mismatch. Banks dominate6 infrastructure development companies during infrastructure financing in India as the corporate 1950-1990, and they were a major source of bond market is under-developed, but face long-term funding. However, financial liberaliza- severe constraints in lending long-term debt tion in 1991, aimed at deregulation of financial due to the short-term nature of the funds they markets that resulted from the balance of raise. According to the Reserve Bank of India payments crisis, reduced the role of DFIs as the (RBI) estimates, nearly 79% of 2009-10 bank 7 RBI again warns banks on asset-liability mismatch, Business Standard, Jan 6 According to the Planning Commission banks are estimated to contribute 28, 2011 nearly 51% of the total debt finance requirement of the infrastructure sector 8 Asian Bond Markets Development and Regional Financial Corporation, The in India during the 11th plan period (2007-12) 21st Century Public Policy Institute, February 2011 A CPI Report 10
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge government stopped supporting their fund- interest rates do not fall for some time. Thus, there raising activities. After the liberalization, DFIs may be false expectations baked into the investment have had to compete with commercial banks assumptions regarding renewable energy projects. to raise funds at market-determined rates. The The fear would be that if these expectations change, financial market deregulation made the DFI required ROEs would need to increase or equity might business model unviable and many were forced become otherwise scarcer or more expensive. to convert themselves into commercial banks. Given that the corporate bond market has 4.4 Debt is not strictly non-recourse remained shallow, the reduced role of DFIs has One area of controversy is the extent to which project left a gap in infrastructure funding. finance exists for renewable energy in India. Project • One exception to this is the Indian Renewable finance, or non-recourse finance, is where money is lent Development Agency (IREDA). IREDA, the or bonds are sold solely on the basis of the project’s investment arm of the Ministry of New and cash flows. Typically, the project is set up as a sepa- Renewable Energy (MNRE) is a government rate company and the loan is made to that company. agency that offers loans to renewable energy Since the lender only has recourse to that project, if the projects at favorable rates compared to project company fails, the lender loses their investment. commercial lending. IREDA was established in The project owner, meanwhile, loses only their invest- 1987 with objective of developing and financing ment in that specific project company. That is, there renewable energy projects. IREDA has deployed is no recourse to the parent company of the project over a billion U.S. dollars and has further com- developer. Developers often prefer this type of financ- mitments from the Asian Development Bank ing because it is less risky to their company and they (ADB), Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), can leverage the balance sheet of the parent company and development banks from Japan and France more aggressively. Developers typically pay a signifi- for another billion dollars. However, the scale cant premium for project debt over recourse debt at of IREDA is small compared to the challenge of the parent company level, because the lower risk to the financing Indian renewable energy ambitions. parent enables them to take on additional projects. 4.3 Fixed interest rate debt is rare We had extensive discussions with stakeholders on whether project finance exists in India. One extreme In India, loans commonly have variable, rather than view is that pure project finance (i.e., non-recourse fixed, interest rates, primarily due to the issues outlined based financing) has not become popular in India.9 On in section 3.2: short-term lending by the banks due to the other hand, many equity as well as debt investors asset-liability mismatch and the near-absence of bond claim that, though not common in the past, it is becom- markets. Long-term hedging instruments — term-swaps ing more popular.10 IREDA’s lending practices support and bonds — are typically unavailable due to imma- the view that non-recourse lending is becoming more ture financial markets and risks related to a growing common. In 2007 only 6% of IREDA lending was non- economy. Variable rate debt makes cash flows to equity recourse, by 2011 this had grown to 55%. holders, which include project cash flows minus the interest payments to debt holders, less certain as they Discussions with private-sector banks indicated that in are subject to changing interest expenses. most cases some guarantees are required. 11 However, these discussions also indicated that these guarantees While outside India, equity investors would not invest are mostly given by promoters — in particular, for wind in a project with variable rate debt or, at least, would projects — that may not have large balance-sheets. expect a premium equity return, it is not clear that this It looks like projects get approved only when there is is the case in India. Interviews with developers and a good promoter. Once loans are approved, they are potential providers of fixed rate loans suggest that the evaluated on their own strength with some further demand in India for fixed rate loans is not high. Part of discount for a better promoter. This is no different from the reason may be a general expectation that interest how project finance happens in the West and it is safe rates in India will fall — presumably because they are so high already — however, unlike in Brazil, forward markets suggest that interest rates are far from certain 9 Discussion with Global Environment Fund (GEF) to fall in the future. Indeed, long-term borrowing by 10 Discussion with Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) the Indian government might be enough to ensure that Project Finance as well as L&T Infra 11 Discussions with ADB, ICICI Bank, Deutsche Bank (DB), IDFC, and L&T Infra A CPI Report 11
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge to assume that project finance exists to some degree — Electricity Boards (SEBs) who are the counter- at least in practice — in India. parties to many of the contracts that pay the renewable energy projects, will restrict lending Since relationships play a stronger role in Indian banking in those states. (Section 4.10) than in Western banking, exercising a “non-recourse” option could have a very strong impact on a company’s 4.6 Many banks do not lend, or limit ability to borrow money in the future and, maybe, even survive. However, again, this situation is not dissimilar lending, to renewable energy projects to that in the U.S. or Europe. Therefore, although we Domestic banks restrict lending flows to renewable believe that the Indian debt probably has more recourse power projects which limits the availability of debt for and, therefore, is less valuable than in the U.S., we have renewable energy projects. Our analysis reveals that not attempted to value this particular difference in less than one third of public sector banks lend to renew- Indian debt markets. able energy projects. The situation is worse for private sector banks where less than one fifth lend to renew- 4.5 Availability of debt able projects (Table 2-1). Banks cite non-familiarity with We heard conflicting accounts regarding the availability the renewable energy sector as well as the perceived of debt in India. In general, larger companies with good riskiness as the major reason for not lending to renew- relationships with banks have access to debt. Superior able energy projects. Even among banks that lend to projects also seem to have access. However, marginal these projects, the amount is restricted due the reasons projects with smaller, unconnected developers might discussed below. find it more difficult. Likewise, some foreign developers Commercial banks in India cap investments in infra- without existing relationships might find it difficult to structure at 10-15% of their total domestic advances raise debt in local markets. based on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prudential However, our conversations indicate that access to lending norms. At present, the renewable energy sector debt is becoming more difficult now and will very is coupled with the power sector, which is governed likely become even more difficult in the longer term for by (implicit and self-enforced) sub-sector limits in several reasons: the range of 4.5-5.0%. During the last few years, due to large capacity additions — primarily of coal based • Banks have sector limits to limit their exposure power projects — commercial banks in India almost to any one market, sector, or technology. reached their lending limits for the power sector (Figure As renewable deployment increases, more banks are nearing their sector exposure limits. Figure 4-2: Gross bank credit of scheduled commercial banks (Section 4.6) • Further, most banks in India include renewable 16% energy in their power, utility, or energy sector Lending as a % of total advances limits. These sectors have heavy borrowing 12% Total demand, to the point that many banks may have infrastructure been near their limits even before lending to sector lending renewable energy could begin. (Section 4.6) 8% • While many banks have sector limits, others will not lend to the renewable energy sector at all due to the novelty of the sector, immature 4% Power sector technology, and uncertain regulation. (Section lending 4.6) 0% • Sourcing debt from foreign lenders is restricted 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- by regulations that set caps on the amount of 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 money that can flow in as well as the pricing of that debt, which in some cases may be too low *2009-10 data is not available. Source: Reserve Bank of India. Data are provi- for international lenders. (Sections 4.7 and 4.8) sional and relate to select scheduled commercial banks which account for more than 95 per cent of bank credit of all scheduled commercial banks. Power sector • Finally, state-level issues, including the poor lending includes lending to generation, transmission, and distribution projects. financial condition of many of the State A CPI Report 12
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge 4-2), potentially leaving limited funds for renewable Figure 4-3: Sample of large wind power investors in power projects. India versus ECB ceiling, 2007-12 Conversations with banks and developers confirmed Estimated project size that they are worried not only about banks not lending 800 at which ECB amount BWFPL to renewable power due to power sector lending limits ceilings could bind but also about the (resulting) increased cost of debt. In 600 February 2011, Andhra Bank noted that “many banks are 400 close to exhausting their internal limits set for infra- structure firms.” In April 2012, SBI Capital added that 200 there is a need to categorize the solar power sector as 0 a priority sector to increase funds available for solar CLP Installed capacity (MW) power development. Further, Solarsis noted that “short- 600 age of debt capital in the country is adding 50-100 basis points to the variable component of the interest rate.” 400 200 4.7 Limits on foreign lending - Capital 0 controls on foreign debt Companies operating in the infrastructure sector — MYTRAH and hence the renewable energy sector — can obtain 600 long-term ECB loans of up to USD 500 million per year. 400 Infrastructure companies can raise an additional USD 200 250 million per year with government approval. Our analysis shows that the limit on ECB may not be impact- 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ing renewable energy projects at the moment, but they may bind in the future, and the ECB ceiling may become Note: Installed capacity is all projects combined (that attained a barrier for renewable investments. financial closure) undertaken by a company in a specific year. BWFPL: Beta Wind Farms Pvt. Ltd. (a subsidiary of Orient Green At the project level, assuming a typical debt-equity Power Company Ltd.). CLP: CLP Power India Ltd. (a subsidiary of ratio of 70:30, Indian wind and solar renewable projects CLP Holdings). Mytrah: Mytrah Energy Ltd. Source: Bloomberg have reached only 55% and 63%, respectively, of the New Energy Finance. USD 500 million ECB limit.12 The largest wind project in India so far (until March 2012) has been 300MW. At an average cost of USD 1.3 million per MW, a 550MW 4.8 Limits on foreign lending - Interest rate wind project would surpass the ECB limit. Similarly, the ceilings largest solar PV power project in India so far has been 125MW. At an average cost of USD 3.6 million per MW, The flow of foreign funds may be constrained due to a project size of approximately 200MW would exceed interest rate ceilings imposed by the government of the ECB limit. India on foreign loans. The ECB interest rate (all-in-cost ceiling) is capped at six-month LIBOR + 300 bps13 for However, the situation is different at the holding three to five year loans and six-month LIBOR + 500bps company level. In at least one case — Beta Wind Farms for loans longer than five years. Our analysis indicates in 2010 — the financing requirement could have hit the the ceiling for typical renewable project loans to be ECB limit if the company had tried to obtain cheaper approximately 11.8% (Figure 4-4). For many investors, foreign debt (Figure 4-3). Similarly, in 2011, Mytrah these conditions may be so stringent as to make invest- Energy got very close to the ECB limit. To the best of our ing in Indian renewable energy unattractive. knowledge, neither of these companies has attempted to obtain foreign loans yet. Against this effective 11.8% limit for the interest rate that could be charged by foreign lenders, we compare the cost of the foreign investor making that loan (in the second column of figure 4-4). To the current Libor 13 LIBOR – the London Inter Bank Offer Rate – is used as a benchmark rate to 12 Bloomberg New Energy Finance which a cap of 300 bps or basis points (or 3%) is added A CPI Report 13
November 2012 Meeting India’s Renewable Energy Targets: The Financing Challenge Figure 4-4: Estimated cost of debt for Indian renewable energy projects, 2012 15% FOREIGN DEBT INDIAN DEBT 15% Term swap Term swap 10% Interest rate Project 10% ceiling on premium Project foreign debt premium Withholding tax 5% India Risk 5% Currency Free Rate Swap 6 month 0% LIBOR 0% Allowed rate Project debt cost Variable rate Comparable fixed rate interest rate, the lender would need to add 5.5% for hedging costs,14 as well as the interest rate ceiling. The a currency swap from Dollars to Rupees over the life availability of foreign loans is further limited by interna- of the project, and 2% for a term swap, to convert the tional lenders requiring a company (or project) rating short-term Libor loan to a longer term (in this case, a equivalent to India’s sovereign rating (BBB), in addition 10-year) loan. A typical project premium for an India to requiring credit guarantees from the holding compa- lender in India is 3.3%. Adding the impact of withhold- nies. Higher international funding transaction costs also ing tax, the foreign lender would need 12.1% to make the make it difficult for small project developers to opt for loan attractive. The Indian lender could make the same foreign loans.15, 16 loan at 11.6%, but offering a variable rather than fixed rate, or approximately 13.6% if it could offer a fixed rate 4.9 Technology risks loan. The availability of finance depends on the technol- These numbers are central estimates, and there is ogy. Wind is typically easily funded, given its track some range, particularly around project premium. Thus, record and increasing competitiveness — multiple large some foreign debt has been able to enter below the cap. projects are getting financed, and project financing However, we will note that given the Indian markets is becoming more prevalent after the introduction of current low value placed on fixed debt, the foreign generation-based incentives. lending cannot compete with the variable rate debt of On the other hand, solar is still new, so many banks are local borrowing. cautious, and many banks are adopting an invest-a-little The limits could increase the cost of renewable energy and then wait-and-see strategy. As a result, projects projects if the ceilings restrict foreign loans even when financed solely by equity are more common in the solar these loans are less expensive than available domestic PV space. The question that arises is whether solar PV fixed rate loans. will mature fast enough such that banks will lend to the projects before developers exhaust their patience, According to project developers and banks, the impact strategic intent, and financial reserves. is real: a typical foreign loan may cost approximately 2% 14 Doors wide open for external commercial borrowings, Business Standard, less than an equivalent domestic loan, and loans pro- March 17, 2012 vided by banks, such as U.S. EXIM bank and Overseas 15 Discussion with Acciona, a wind power developer. Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) could be even 16 Further, at present Indian companies are reluctant to go for fixed rate foreign cheaper. However, not many renewable projects in loan due to expectations of a fall in domestic interest rates as the bench- India are being financed by foreign loans due to high mark interest rate is currently at a high level last seen in 2000-01 (Source: tradingeconomics.com). A CPI Report 14
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