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Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia ...
Technology
Predictions 2021
Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi,
Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange,
Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson,
Cecilia Metra, Dejan Milojicic, Roberto Saracco

                                                  ↓
Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia ...
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In This Report
   01   Team                       04   Individual 12 Predictions

   02   Introduction               05   Comparing Predictions

   03   12 Predictions Landscape   06   Overall Summary
Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia ...
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SECTION 01

Broader
              Mary Baker           Tom Coughlin           Paolo Faraboschi        Eitan Frachtenberg        Kim Keeton
              HP Inc.              Coughlin Associates    Hewlett Packard Ent.    Reed College              Entrepreneur

Technology
Predictions
Team
              Danny Lange          Phil Laplante          Katherine Mansfield     Andrea Matwyshyn          Avi Mendelson
              Unity Technologies   Penn State             IEEE Computer Society   Penn State                Technion and NTU

              Cecilia Metra        Dejan Milojicic        Roberto Saracco         Jeffrey Voas
              Bologna University   Hewlett Packard Ent.   IEEE FDC                NIST, IEEE Computer EIC
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SECTION 02

Introduction
Technology Predictions from Hypothetical
Exercise to Critical Planning

The pandemic data1                                                                              • Societal distancing vs depleting individuals’ social
                                                                                                  credits
     • 28 Trillion $ loss in 2020, unevenly distributed across
                                                                                                • Future of workforce
       regions and sectors
                                                                                                • Forced to trusting AI to assist in transportation,
     • Recovery time estimated at 2 to 4 years; market and
                                                                                                  healthcare, elderly, etc.
       priorities reshaped
                                                                                               Acceleration of the Digital Transformation was forced
     • Up to 10% of GDP in jobs support, good portion is
                                                                                               upon work, education, and private life
       “wasted” money
The pandemic had impact on: human lives, supply chains,                                        Technologies increasingly play crucial role in all of this and
workforce, unpredictability of operations and markets                                          are becoming essential for our survival

Counter-measures: cutting costs; repurposing assets;                                           Predicting technologies helps addressing pandemics, it
eliminating the middle-man; shift to “as-a-Service” models                                     goes well beyond hypothetical exercise

Pandemics have created STRESS on current humankind
existence, values, and daily lives

1
    From Roberto Saracco, Industry Advisory Board report to IEEE Future Directions Committee
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SECTION 03

                           1.    Remote workforce technologies
                           2.    Social distancing technologies
                           3.    Reliability/Safety for Intelligent
                                 Autonomous Systems
                           4.    Synthetic Data for training ML
                                 systems free of bias
                           5.    Disinformation detection
                           6.    HPC as a Service
                           7.    Election security / social media

Technology
                                 controls
                           8.    Trustworthy & Explainable AI/ML

Predictions at the
                           9.    Low latency virtual musical
                                 rehearsal and performance
                           10.   Computational memory

Times of Pandemics         11.   AI for additive & subtractive
                                 manufacturing
                           12.   Advanced Cyber Weapons
12 Predictions Landscape
Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia ...
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SECTION 03

  Relationship Between
  Predicted Technologies
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SECTION 03

  In Reality ...
Mary Baker, Tom Coughlin, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Kim Keeton, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Andrea Matwyshyn, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia ...
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS

Remote
                                              Problems/demand                                Impact
                                               • The pandemic required social                 • Customized remote work environments
                                                 distancing, which in turn created an           and Improved accommodation of

Workforce
                                                 immediate explosion in remote work,            workers with different needs.
                                                 especially for white-collar industries
                                                                                              • A more inclusive work environment,
                                               • The vast majority of remote work               policy, and culture
                                                 uses preexisting technology, such as
                                                                                              • Growth in remote-based services such
                                                 video conferencing and virtual private
                                                                                                as tele-health.
                                                 networks
Tools, policies, and regulations for remote    • But there are many important
                                                                                              • Adoption of remote collaboration, hiring,
                                                                                                and training.
work will evolve rapidly, improving              workplace interactions that don’t
                                                 currently have a great technological        Sustainable solution/business
existing remote roles and expanding              solution and are ripe for innovation        opportunity

to use cases that don’t currently have        Opportunities                                   • A permanent transition to a remote
                                                                                                or hybrid work model in white-collar
                                               • Technology to facilitate proximity-
ideal solutions, such as education,              based or spontaneous collaboration,
                                                                                                industries.

                                                 substituting for the office environment      • Increase in worker mobility and
manufacturing, and healthcare.

                  01
                                                                                                geographical diversity.
                                               • Technology to facilitate effective
                                                 teaching and learning with rich              • Improvements in diversity, equity, and
                                                 communication, substituting for the            inclusion of the workforce.
                                                 classroom environment                        • Enablers: tech & app innovations; AR/
                                               • Technology to facilitate effective large-      VR, regulation
                                                 scale meetings, substituting for the         • Inhibitors: company policy, lack of
                                                 conference environment (short-term)            financial support and buy-in

                                                             More details at https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.13278092
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                          Problems/demand                                   Closeness provides a sense of safety in

Social
                                                                                            case of perceived danger.
                                           • The pandemic required social
                                             distancing, which in turn created an         • The negative aspects of social distancing
                                             immediate explosion in remote work,            can be decreased by improving
                                             especially for white-collar industries         technologies to overcome separation

Distancing
                                                                                            (e.g. VR/AR).
                                           • The vast majority of remote work
                                             uses preexisting technology, such as         • The growing awareness at personal
                                             video conferencing and virtual private         & social level can stimulate specific
                                             networks                                       behavior and foster proactive
                                                                                            healthcare. Social Credits growth was
                                           • But there are many important
A host of technology is converging,          workplace interactions that don’t
                                                                                            noticed in China.
                                             currently have a great technological
creating streams of data that will be        solution and are ripe for innovation
                                                                                         Sustainable solution/business
                                                                                         opportunity

processed locally and globally creating   Opportunities                                   • We can expect emergence of new and
                                                                                            improvement of existing wearable
a framework of massively distributed       • Societal Distancing Techniques can
                                             increase service quality and decrease
                                                                                            devices. Existing smartphones improve
                                                                                            sustainability (reuse), like the adoption
intelligence with impact on apps,            cost by leveraging alternative ways to
                                             turn distance into closeness (by creating
                                                                                            of GPS/Wireless, Bluetooth

wearables, and sensors.

                  02
                                             a feeling of presence)                       • The leverage of data is also in line
                                                                                            of sustainability, opening up biz
                                           • On the business side they open up new
                                                                                            opportunity, e.g. adoption of existing
                                             opportunities, as demonstrated by the
                                                                                            data frameworks like Electronic Health
                                             number of tools for managing virtual
                                                                                            Records (EHR)z
                                             meetings and by the rapid evolution of
                                             their features.                              • The need to create personal data space
                                                                                            goes hand in hand with the evolution
                                           • Social distances techniques, when duly
                                                                                            trends of Digital Twins and Personal
                                             addressed, provide tools that foster the
                                                                                            Digital Twins that in turn is likely to
                                             digital transformation
                                                                                            foster new biz opportunity
                                          Impact                                          • Enablers: VR/AR technologies, social
                                                                                            credits
                                           • The impact of Social Distancing is
                                             substantial. Humans are social animals,      • Inhibitors: distancing enforcement,
                                             psychologically against “distancing”.          poor technology support
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                     Impact

Reliability                              • Expected market growth for intelligent
                                           autonomous systems (e.g. mobile robots,
                                           vehicles) with high level of autonomy
                                                                                             • Significant reduction of humans’ work risks
                                                                                             • Improvement of humans’ health
                                                                                             • More efficient healthcare, surveillance, and

and Safety
                                         • To enable high levels of autonomy, stringent
                                                                                               better services
                                           requirements in terms of reliability/safety of
                                           their components have to be met                   • Technological boost

                                         • The ability to reach a safe state in a fully     Sustainable solution/business opportunity

for Intelligent
                                           autonomous way (thanks to reliable
                                           components) has to be guaranteed in case of       • Significant research investment (academia
                                           hazardous conditions                                and industry) in high reliability and safety
                                                                                               solutions for highly autonomous intelligent
                                         • High reliability and safety should be

Autonomous
                                                                                               systems
                                           guaranteed with respect to transient faults
                                           and aging phenomena occurring in the field        • Research needed to investigate interaction
                                                                                               among reliability, safety and security and time
                                        Opportunities                                          determinism constraints

Systems
                                         • Intelligent, autonomous systems proved very       • Applicability to environmental monitoring,
                                           helpful in facing the pandemic emergency            catastrophes’ prediction and avoidance

                  03
                                           (e.g., robots to disinfect infected areas,        • Enablers: Innovative approaches for
                                           autonomous vehicles transporting Covid19-           enhanced reliability and safety; new
                                           tests, etc).                                        international standards in the field;
                                                                                               regulations for ethical responsibility
Fueled by the pandemic,
                                         • Moving towards fully autonomous systems
                                           will significant help humans by preventing        • Inhibitors: technical challenges; regulations
substantial growth in
                                           exposure to health’s risky conditions
                                         • Applications are pandemic support,
autonomous systems will further            environmental monitoring, post-earthquake
                                           management, space exploration, etc.
improve reliability and safety of
such autonomous systems.                        For more details, please join the IEEE Computer Society Special Technical Community
                                                (STC) on Reliable, Safe, Secure and Time Deterministic Intelligent Systems at
                                                https://www.computer.org/communities/special-technical-communities/rsstdis
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                      Impact
                                         • Real-world data often embed strong biases          • More and better training data at order of
                                           found throughout society thus allowing AI            magnitude lower cost

Synthetic Data
                                           algorithms to amplify those undesirable biases
                                                                                              • Creating training data reflecting the world as
                                         • Real-world data is difficult to gather and very      we want to see it rather than the biased world
                                           expensive to manually label hence limiting the       we live in

for Training ML
                                           use of ML
                                                                                              • Eliminate the risk of model overfitting
                                         • Real-world data often raise privacy concerns
                                                                                              • Disrupting model accuracy through active
                                           which may severely limit its application
                                                                                                learning and dynamic data generation in a
                                         • Read-world data can sometimes not be                 virtuous feedback loop
                                           collected in a certain environment due to
We shall see a substantial                 safety reasons
                                                                                              • Democratization of AI/ML by lowering barriers
                                                                                                of entry for ML practitioners
increase in the adoption of             Opportunities
                                                                                             Sustainable solution/business opportunity
synthetic data for training              • Synthetic data can be generated in infinite
                                           amounts at extremely low cost
                                                                                              • Low-cost smart cameras with computer vision

ML in the coming year.                                                                        • Improved AI functionality in Augmented Reality

       04
                                         • Synthetic data is automatically perfectly
                                           labelled                                           • ML Models as-a-Service

                                         • Synthetic can be engineered to be free of bias     • Testing ML systems with anonymized data
                                           and promote inclusion                              • Improve limited real-world datasets with
                                         • Synthetic data can easily be shared and used         synthetic data
                                           in collaborative environments                      • Enablers: Push for Responsible AI; privacy
                                         • Generating behavioral data such as in robotics       concerns; bias prevention; inclusion; low cost;
                                           simulations at speeds much higher the wall           scalability; and flexibility
                                           clock                                              • Inhibitors: Limited technology offerings;
                                         • Greater variation in data including black swan       awareness; insufficient skills & knowledge
                                           events                                               of complex data theories; and deep rooted
                                                                                                skepticism to data not originating from real-
                                                                                                world events; legal uncertainty
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS

Disinformation                          Problems/demand
                                         • ‘Post-truth’ declared word of the year by
                                                                                        Impact
                                                                                         • More reliable detection of “fake” people

Detection
                                           Oxford Dictionaries, 2016                       and information can positively impact
                                                                                           social governance
                                         • Twitter Has Flagged 200 of Trump’s
                                           posts as ‘Disputed’ or Misleading since       • It will improve the quality of products
                                           election day and the CNN refused to             and services we are getting
                                           broadcast some of his statements.
Critical importance of having              Based on what tools/information they         Sustainable solution/business
                                                                                        opportunity
                                           are making their decision?
accurate information will                • People are making judgments about             • We need better regulations and laws

trigger techniques to determine            trustworthiness based on reviews and
                                           critics of claiming to be “objectives”.
                                                                                           that will mitigate the use and the spread
                                                                                           of false data and false information

disinformation in politics,                Apparently, many of them are being
                                           paid directly or indirectly to vote for or
                                                                                         • We need to develop more reliable tools
                                                                                           to detect false data – tools that people
business, and social media.                against the product/service.                    can trust

                  05
                                        Opportunities                                    • Enablers: regulation; advanced
                                                                                           machine learning algorithms; tech & app
                                         • The current technology of profiling
                                                                                           innovations
                                           and understanding market demands
                                           and needs are focusing on commercial          • Inhibitors: legislators, politicians,
                                           purposes, but the same technology can           perceived commercial interests of
                                           be used to detect disinformation                existing players

                                         • Recently, quite a new researchers are
                                           using advanced machine learning and
                                           data mining techniques to achieve that
                                           goal
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                    • HPC platforms will modernize and new
                                                                                             programming models beyond MPI &

HPC as a Service
                                         • Not everyone can afford
                                                                                             multi-threading will evolve
                                           Supercomputer, delivering high end
                                           HPC hardware on as needed basis                 • Entirely new applications may evolve
                                           eliminates CAPEX                                  from tighter convergence of HPC and AI
                                                                                             fueled by HPCaaS

(HPCaaS)
                                         • HPC is converging towards AI1 and most
                                           of AI is executed in the Cloud or on aaS
                                                                                          Sustainable solution/business
                                           platforms
                                                                                          opportunity
                                         • However, HPC applications still require
                                                                                           • International governments embracing
                                           high parallelism and specialized, noise-
                                                                                             HPC as a Service
During 2021, we will see                   free interconnects, as well as HPC-
                                           specific tools (schedulers, libraries, etc.)    • HPCaaS Adoption for Engineering

increasing progress towards             Opportunities
                                                                                             solutions in oil and gas, finance, etc.
                                                                                             (mid- to low-end HPC

delivering medium HPC systems            • Applications in the Cloud have evolve
                                           their worfklow and tool chains in a more
                                                                                           • We need to develop more reliable tools
                                                                                             to detect false data – tools that people
as a Service.                              superior fashion than HPC                         can trust.

                  06
                                         • Security models are better in the Cloud         • Enablers: growth of AI accelerators;
                                           with shared infrastructure                        concerted efforts by US DoE; push by
                                                                                             top tier Cloud providers
                                         • Scale-out models in the Cloud are
                                           proved to be more cost-efficient than           • Inhibitors: legacy HPC applications
                                           on-premise                                        are still dominated by MPI and multi-
                                                                                             threaded models; very high end systems
                                        Impact                                               and highly parallel applications will
                                         • Making HPC more broadly available can             demand on-premise
                                           democratize many high end applications
                                           and also foster innovation

                                                                                              1
                                                                                               R. Stevens, J. Nichols, K. Yellick, “AI for Science,” DoE Report.
                                                                                              https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2020/03/158802.pdf
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                  • Balancing diverse perspectives with

Election
                                                                                           responsible propagation of content
                                         • The 2020 US presidential election
                                                                                           challenges the continued fit of traditional
                                           shone a light on the oversized role of
                                                                                           legal approaches to intermediary
                                           technology, in particular social media, on
                                                                                           protection
                                           perceptions of election security

Security and
                                         • Debate continues about the appropriate       Impact
                                           scope of intermediary responsibility and
                                                                                         • Building trust in the democratic process
                                           liability for disinformation and its viral
                                                                                           and election results
                                           spread

Disinformation
                                                                                         • Potentially overlapping interests across
                                         • Concerns about interference from
                                                                                           the political aisle
                                           foreign adversaries are real, and social
                                           media demonstrated continued influence        • Minimizing provably false information in
                                           operations                                      the public discourse

Technological tools and new             Opportunities                                   Sustainable solution/business
                                                                                        opportunity
                                         • Social media technologies and
laws will develop to safeguard             companies influence the views of              • Industry investment in advanced AI/

                  07
                                           millions. This influence can be harnessed       ML technology to improve content
election security, increase                for voter education and communication,
                                           rather than furthering viral spread of
                                                                                           monitoring, classification and filtering

trust and confidence in the                disinformation, distrust, and ”echo
                                           chambers”.
                                                                                         • A new, possibly more restrictive
                                                                                           regulatory climate for these companies

democratic process, and curb the         • The commercial incentives of social
                                                                                         • An increase (or possibly decrease) of
                                                                                           trust in traditional social media products;
spread of disinformation.                  media companies should align with the
                                           democratic interests and values of each
                                                                                           room for arrival of new entrants

                                           country                                       • Enablers: Better content classification
                                                                                           tech, regulation
                                         • Opportunities exist to merge the
                                           conversation from election security with      • Inhibitors: conflicting perceptions of
                                           WHO’s inquiries into “infodemiology” and        commercial and political interests
                                           disinformation as a threat to public well-
                                           being
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                 Impact

Trustworthy &
                                         • Today’s AI practices and tools are            • Applicability of AI/ML to mission-critical
                                           designed for performance, but lack              processes
                                           transparency and accountability
                                                                                         • Mitigation of biased decisions caused by
                                         • They introduce or amplify bias due to           AI technology

Explainable AI/ML
                                           training data quality
                                                                                         • Human-in-the-loop decision making
                                         • They are not capable of explaining the          process with validation and compliance
                                           decision process
                                                                                        Sustainable solution/business
                                         • They can’t be used in compliance-
                                                                                        opportunity
In addition to performance,
                                           sensitive or mission-critical applications
                                                                                         • Trustworthy AI toolkits and standard
                                        Opportunities                                      practices to design, analyze and
the AI/ML developers will start          • Design for explainability: systems should
                                                                                           measure AI solutions and technologies

focusing on explainable and                be interpretable and observable               • AI/ML technology that is “designed
                                                                                           for trust” by construction, with built-in
                                         • Design for reproducibility: systems
trustworthy tools and code.                should be designed to act upon traits
                                                                                           support to measure and analyze the
                                                                                           important explainability metrics
                                           that are invariant

                  08
                                                                                         • Enablers: several world-wide initiatives
                                         • Design for robustness: systems should
                                                                                           towards a converged set of AI Ethics
                                           be stable during training and inference,
                                                                                           principles (e.g., Secure, Private, Inclusive,
                                           and robust against adversarial attacks
                                                                                           Human, Responsible, Robust)1
                                         • Design for fairness: systems should be
                                                                                         • Inhibitors: AI/ML center of gravity
                                           able to measure and mitigate bias
                                                                                           in consumer applications (e.g.,
                                                                                           recommenders) that are less
                                                                                           sensitive to trust issues; emphasis on
                                                                                           performance rather than trust.

                                                                                            1
                                                                                                Example (IEEE): https://bit.ly/IEEE_AI_Ethics_Principles
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS
                                        Problems/demand                                        Impact

Low Latency                              • The pandemic has made it unsafe for singers
                                           and wind instrumentalists to rehearse
                                           together indoors. Outdoor rehearsals aren’t
                                                                                                • Enablement of collaborative music making
                                                                                                  for instruction, ensemble rehearsals, and
                                                                                                  performances

Virtual Music
                                           always possible, due to weather.
                                                                                                • Increased sense of community beyond
                                         • A large audience congregating for a live               individual artistic pursuits
                                           performance is dangerous
                                                                                                • Potential for larger, more inclusive audiences
                                         • Remote workforce technology adds significant           than possible with in-person events

Collaboration
                                           latency and jitter, making it unusable for
                                                                                                • Post-pandemic: reduced need for commuting
                                           collaborative musical rehearsals and live
                                                                                                  to rehearsals and events
                                           performances
                                                                                                • New business models around remote, rather
                                        Opportunities                                             than in-person, delivery

New technologies will enable             • Technologies to facilitate virtual rehearsals
                                           with low enough latency (< 25ms) to support
                                                                                               Sustainable solution/business opportunity

vocal and instrumental                     collaborative music making for:
                                            • Musical instruction (e.g., individual or small
                                                                                                • Hardware and software support for low-
                                                                                                  latency, DVD-quality Internet audio and video

ensembles to make

           09
                                                                                                  processing
                                              group lessons)
                                                                                                • Easy-to-use devices, applications, and
collaborative music in real-time            • Small ensemble rehearsals (e.g., chamber
                                              groups, jazz combos)
                                                                                                  cloud services to simplify configuration and
                                                                                                  management for non-technical users
for instruction, rehearsal, and             • Larger ensemble rehearsals (e.g.,
                                              choruses, concert bands)
                                                                                                • Enablers: several initiatives are exploring

performance.                             • Technologies to facilitate live virtual
                                                                                                  solutions for Internet music making. E.g:
                                                                                                  JackTrip Foundation and Jamkazam
                                           performances of musical ensembles, with
                                                                                                • Inhibitors: physics (speed-of-light delays limit
                                           audience interactivity
                                                                                                  geographic spread of musical collaborators),
                                                                                                  insufficient financial support for new arts-
                                                                                                  related technologies

                                                                                                        1
                                                                                                            https://www.jacktrip.org/
                                                                                                        2
                                                                                                            https://jamkazam.com
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Computational Storage and
In-Memory Processing
Increased deployment        Problems/demand                                                      Impact
                             • Creating value and enabling quick decisions from growing data      • Local data processing makes IoT data more useful and reduces
of IoT sensors with            stores while reducing energy consumption and cost will enable        the impact of this data on baseband network bandwidth
                               wide-spread applications that enhance public safety, improve
minimal power                  health, and enable greater understanding
                                                                                                  • Local data processing with embedded devices using non-
                                                                                                    volatile memories can make power constrained applications

consumption                  • It will allow us to experience the world and others in new ways
                               and help create a true partnership between humans and
                                                                                                    possible, enabling new medical/health, AR/VR and many other
                                                                                                    apps

will accelerate                machines
                                                                                                  • In addition to saving power, greater use of non-volatile memory,
                                                                                                    domain specific processing and disaggregated and composable
development and

10
                            Opportunities
                                                                                                    infrastructure could increase the overall data center efficiency
                             • Many IoT/AI real time applications (e.g. autonomous vehicles)
deployment of                  benefit from processing at the edge                               Sustainable solution/business opportunity

computational                • Processing at endpoints or at the edge, often with embedded
                               SoC devices, can improve latency, reduce network bandwidth
                                                                                                  • Processing data locally saves energy, provides higher
                                                                                                    performance, saves network bandwidth and reduces latency

storage and in-                and also reduce energy consumption
                                                                                                  • New networking architectures and memory/storage strategies
                             • Replacing volatile with non-volatile memory, emerging memory         will create new opportunities for computing resources
memory processing              fabrics and domain specific processors to implement in-
                                                                                                  • Low power embedded devices enable more apps and new
                               memory processors or computational storage to reduce
devices, software              movement of data
                                                                                                    packaging options—such as smart glasses with voice control
                                                                                                  • Enablers: improving AI and nonvolatile memory enable local
stacks, and products.        • Replacing volatile with non-volatile memory in industrial,
                               civic and consumer embedded devices can reduce energy
                                                                                                    processing using less energy

                               consumption and often provide more memory for AI and other         • Inhibitors: Need higher volume lower cost non-volatile
                               applications, increasing their usefulnes                             memories and implementation of new AI applications in
                                                                                                    embedded devices and data centers
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AI for Digital
                                              Problems/demand                          Impact
                                               • Desire for faster ideation-to-         • Shorter time from need to
                                                 production time for parts created        production
                                                 through additive and subtractive

Manufacturing
                                                                                        • Higher quality solutions/parts
                                                 manufacturing
                                                                                        • Increased customization
                                               • Need for higher confidence that
                                                 parts meet functional constraints      • Designs created and produced by
                                                 and quality requirements                 those who want them

We will see further uptake of additive and     • Need for easier and faster
                                                 customization of designs
                                                                                       Sustainable solution/business
                                                                                       opportunity
subtractive manufacturing with lower           • Desire to open up design ideation
                                                 and creation to any user
                                                                                        • Data science for industrial

design-to-production times, higher part
                                                                                          manufacturing across and inside of
                                                                                          factory workflows steps
                                              Opportunities
quality, and increased customization           • Feedback/learning loops
                                                                                        • Data science for functional proof of
                                                                                          produced parts
opportunities provided via new applications      in manufacturing/testing
                                                 equipment for higher quality and       • AI for modeling and design by

of data science and ML.                          faster achievement of desired            untrained users

                              11
                                                 functionality                          • Enablers: advances in AI and
                                               • Feedback/learning loops in design        physical calibration
                                                 through consumer usage                 • Inhibitors: lack of communication
                                               • Learn from tagged design libraries       between different workflow
                                                 and images of products to achieve        components and consumer
                                                 desired aesthetics or functionality      feedback
                                                 of new parts
                                               • Human-centered, even verbal, input
                                                 into design process
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SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS

Advanced Cyber Defense
New autonomous and semi-autonomous           Problems/demand                                 • Theft or corruption of vast amounts
                                                                                               of data; massive financial harm
                                              • New and more innovative attack tools
security tools will emerge to defend            being developed
                                                                                               to corporations, public entities,
                                                                                               governments
against increasingly sophisticated            • Increased interconnectedness and
                                                ubiquity of computing enlarges attack
                                                                                             • Widespread destruction, failure or
                                                                                               malfunctioning of critical infrastructure
attacks that are capable of causing             surface.
                                                                                               systems with associated major societal
                                              • “Payoff” for success very large for low        damage
significant physical harms and failures of      investment of effort
                                                                                             • A massive disruption of computing
critical infrastructure.                      • Single individuals and small rogue
                                                groups can cause material losses due
                                                                                               service triggering second and third
                                                                                               order failures of computing and non-
                                                to information security harms                  computing systems worldwide

                      12
                                             Opportunities                                  Sustainable solution/business
                                              • Cross platform, application and device      opportunity
                                                malware emerging                             • Cross government-industry solutions
                                              • AI technologies allow for evolving,          • International alliances and information
                                                adaptive and mutating malware                  sharing
                                              • State actors, rogue nations, terrorists,     • Enablers: low barriers to entry,
                                                protest groups can easily create and           rogue governments and groups,
                                                deploy advanced attack tools and               enlarged attack surface due to
                                                malware                                        ubiquity of computing elements and
                                                                                               interconnectedness
                                             Impact
                                                                                             • Inhibitors: prevention activities,
                                              • Physical harm (including loss of life) on      preparedness, appropriate response/
                                                massive scale                                  defense
20
SECTION 04: INDIVIDUAL 12 PREDICTIONS

  2021 Technologies
  Ordered by
  Predictions Team’s
  Votes
21
SECTION 05

Comparing
Predictions
Impact, Likelihood,
Confidence

                      1) Likelihood was determined by the overall number of votes and consensus (average) among the committee, it
                      defines probability of prediction happening

                      2) Impact is determined relative among different predictions

                      3) Prediction confidence describes our own confidence in prediction, and consensus (standard deviation), so it is
                      different from 1) above
22
SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

  #Predictions
  Categorized by
  Primary Focus
23
SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

  #Predictions
  Categorized by
  Primary and
  Secondary Focus
24
SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Some
General
Observations
Some of the industries are severely impacted by                Some of the technologies and approaches are applicable
pandemics, dramatically reducing demand. Technology            across many fields
can help them too, but nothing can substantially reverse
lack of demand, e.g.                                            • AI/ML/DL techniques can be applied across all other
                                                                  technologies
 • Transportation, especially air, cruises, taxis/lyft/uber,
                                                                • Cybersecurity is essential to protect against malicious
   etc.
                                                                  behavior which is especially concerning in critical times
 • Oil and gas, lack of travel drove down demand for oil
                                                                • Digital transformation is taking place in general and
   (Oil future contract went negative)
                                                                  broadest sense
 • Tourism, hospitality, accommodation industry (hotels,
                                                                • Disaster recovery of manufacturing and supply chain
   AirBnB)
                                                                  very similar to data centers
25

SECTION 06

Overall Summary
The Pandemics                                     increasingly useful
 • Technology is critical in times of a         • We continue to experiment with
   pandemic, it helps overcome some of the        approaches and delivery models
   negatives                                    • We are becoming more and more
 • Pandemics also enable aggressive               systematic and rigorous in our predictions
   technology evolution. Necessity is mother
   of invention                                Seeking Feedback
                                                • What do you think of our predictions? What
General                                           have we missed, what is wrong, different?
 • Technology Predictions (or Trends) were      • Feel free to approach us with feedback,
   always popular, now they are becoming          questions at k.mansfield@computer.org.
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