Maruti Suzuki Ltd. Initiating Coverage
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Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
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1
Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon
Buy on dips to Rs 6130-6170 band and add further
Automobile - 4wheeler Rs 6501 Rs 6790 Rs 7200 2 quarters
in Rs 5615-5635 band
Our Take:
HDFC Scrip Code MARSUZ
Maruti Suzuki is the undisputed market leader in the Indian passenger vehicle industry and is likely to remain so in the near future. Over
BSE Code 532500
the last 5 years it has further consolidated its leadership position with its market share increasing from 45% in FY15 to 51.9% in FY20
NSE Code MARUTI
driven by its large sales network, lower service cost and higher resale value. The recent Covid-19 pandemic could also prove beneficial for
Bloomberg MSIL IN
CMP Sep 23, 2020 6501.3 the company as many people would prefer personal mobility over public transport. Also, in the post Covid era, there is strong likelihood of
Equity Capital (cr) 151.0 down trading in the PV segment, MSL’s dominant presence in small and medium car segment can augur well for the company. Apart from
Face Value (Rs) 5 this, in long term lower penetration of 4W in India, increasing discretionary spend and rising aspirations among the youth are likely to be
Eq. Share O/S (cr) 30.2 beneficial for MSIL.
Market Cap (Rs cr) 196391.3
Book Value (Rs) 1658.8 MSIL has been launching new models both in the premium category as well as entry level small cars. Its premiumisation strategy, by
Avg.52 Wk Volume 13,80,000 creating a separate service brand through NEXA, has paid off well and improving product mix has led to increase in ASP (Average selling
52 Week High 7758.7 price). Its global alliance with Toyota could provide volume growth while MSIL would benefit from the hybrid technology of Toyota as the
52 Week Low 4001.1 industry moves from combustion engines to hybrid/electric vehicles. Strong support from the parent Suzuki Motor Corp Japan in terms of
technology and contract manufacturing helps the company in improving margins and conserve cash.
Share holding Pattern % (Jun, 2020)
Promoters 56.28 Seasonal sales boost (coupled with low inventory levels at dealers), higher rural demand due to higher yields and high MSPs, and normalcy
Institutions 38.53 returning to J&K where MSIL has a 65%+ share are some triggers that may play out in the near term.
Non Institutions 5.19
Total 100.0
Valuations & Recommendation:
Although we expect sales volume to decline at CAGR of 2% over FY20-FY22, cost cutting initiatives, higher other income and improving
Fundamental Research Analyst product mix towards premium models is likely to result in strong EBITDA/PAT growth. We feel the base case fair value of the stock is Rs
Atul Karwa 6790 (26.0x FY22E EPS) and bull case fair value is Rs 7200 (27.5x FY22E EPS). Investors can buy the stock in the price band of Rs 6130-6170
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com band (~23.5x FY22E EPS) and add further on declines to Rs 5615-5635 band (21.5x FY22E EPS).
2
Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Financial Summary
Particulars (Rs cr) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY-% Q4FY20 QoQ-% FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Operating Income 4,107 19,720 -79.2 18,199 -77.4 86,020 75,611 63,079 74,418
EBITDA -863 2,048 NA 1,546 NA 10,999 7,303 5,172 8,975
APAT -249 1,436 NA 1,292 NA 7,501 5,651 4,407 7,899
Diluted EPS (Rs) -8.3 47.5 NA 42.8 NA 248.4 187.1 145.9 261.5
RoE-% 17.1 11.7 8.4 13.5
P/E (x) 26.2 34.7 44.6 24.9
EV/EBITDA 14.6 21.4 29.5 16.0
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Recent Triggers
Q1FY21 financials
MSIL reported a loss of Rs 249cr in Q1FY21 impacted by COVID and constrained production. Operating income dropped by 79.2% yoy to Rs
4107cr tracking an almost similar 80.1% drop in sales volume to 76,599 units. The company posted EBITDA loss of Rs 863cr as compared to
a profit of Rs 1546cr in Q1FY20. ASP however increased by 7.6% qoq to Rs 4.8 lakh/unit.
Increased sales likely to follow higher enquires
The management has indicated that post Q1 enquiries are at 85-90% of pre-Covid levels. The share of first-time buyers has risen by ~5%
(from 45% in Q4FY20). It expects a shift from public transport to personal transport which is likely to drive demand for entry level cars.
MSIL launched a subscription based model on pilot basis in Bengaluru and Gurugram and the response has been quite encouraging. These
factors are likely to work in favour of Maruti owing to a strong small car portfolio, thereby further increasing its market share. Volumes in
the month of Aug-2020 were up by 17.1% YoY to 124,624 units.
Production to ramp up as restrictions ease off
MSIL is currently producing ~4000 units/day across its Haryana and Gujarat (single shift) plants. As the Gujarat plant starts with the second
shift in mid-Aug20, Maruti will produce an incremental 900 units per day. Production increased by 11% in the month of Aug-2020.
3
Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Long term Triggers
Dominant position in the domestic PV segment
MSIL is the leader in the domestic passenger vehicles segment with a 51% market share in FY20 in terms of units sold. Its models have
consistently featured in the list of top 10 car models sold in the country. In FY20, MSIL had 7 models in the list of top 10 models sold during
the year. The company has been introducing products as per the market requirements. Few years ago when diesel cars were in demand
due to the huge price gap between petrol and diesel, MSIL had introduced diesel variants for almost all its models. It has now discontinued
some diesel models as the gap has shrunk. Also relatively higher cost of acquisition compared to petrol and similar running cost has
reduced economic vialbility of diesel cars particularly in small and mid-segment. Cars of the company are well received by the market due
to value for money image, lower maintenance costs and wide service network alongwith good resale value as compared to peers. MSIL has
a decent product pipeline, which will help it to counter competition from new entrants and maintain its leadership position.
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
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Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Some of the expected launches are Jimny, Wagon R electric, 6/7-seater WagonR (to compete with Renault Triber, which has received a
good response), Futuro-e, Vitara, 800cc small engine model etc. Besides the company would continue to facelift and introduce CNG
variants of existing models in order to bridge the gap from diesel model discontinuation. Success of existing models, combined with
expanding product portfolio and acceptance of its BS-VI models has solidified its dominant market position.
Suzuki’s global alliance with Toyota is likely to benefit the company
Toyota Motor Corporation and Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC) have signed an agreement regarding a capital alliance to establish and
promote a long-term partnership and to promote collaboration in new fields, including autonomous driving. The companies would engage
in joint product development and collaboration in production, in addition to promoting the mutual supply of products, by bringing
together Toyota’s strength in electrification technologies and Suzuki’s strength in technologies for small vehicles.
The Toyota and Suzuki partnership has already seen the launch of the Toyota Glanza, which is essentially a rebadged Maruti Suzuki Baleno.
The alliance will also see Maruti Suzuki supplying the Vitara Brezza, the Ciaz and the Ertiga to Toyota. The two Japanese carmakers will also
make a big push for hybrid electric vehicles in the country with Toyota supplying its hybrid systems to Suzuki. Additionally, they will
cooperate to develop a new Toyota C-segment MPV that will be supplied to Suzuki as well.
Both companies are also exploring ways to expand their partnership in India beyond vehicle development to include joint sourcing of
components as part of a strategy to cut costs, especially for their full hybrid offerings.
Low penetration to aid long term growth
Vehicle penetration in India stands at around 25-28 four-wheelers per 1000 people as per various estimates. Historically, vehicle sales in
some of the key global markets have shown an inflexion point at a similar level of penetration. In countries such as South Korea, Japan and
China, CAGR of car sales were in excess of 20% over the next 5 years once this level of penetration was achieved. This was supported by
strong growth in GDP per capita. Barring the slowdown in last couple of years, India has been witnessing strong GDP growth driven by
factors like increasing disposable incomes in the rural agriculture sector, presence of a large pool of skilled and semiskilled workers, and a
strong educational system.
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Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
This is likely to result in increased vehicle penetration and MSIL is likely to be a key beneficiary of an uptick in passenger vehicle sales.
Wide portfolio of cars and a strong service network has created a business moat for the company especially in the Tier II and below cities.
Global OEMs have limited products in the entry level segment which is the strong point for MSIL. With the lack of significant competition
in the entry level segment MSIL stands to gain the most from the underpenetrated market of India.
Premiumisation to enhance average sales price
The Indian PV market has been gradually shifting from entry/hatchback cars to premium hatchbacks and utility vehicles. With the rising
disposable incomes customers are now willing to pay for extra safety features and technologies such as Bluetooth, reverse parking
cameras, navigation system, automatic transmission, etc. which make their driving experience more comfortable. The extra features are
leading to an improvement in average sale price. However MSIL being a strong player in small car segment, its ASP is amongst the lowest
in OEM in India. The company is also focusing on introducing cars through its premium dealership network NEXA launched in FY16. As of
FY20 it had 375 NEXA outlets across the country.
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
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Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Strong support from parent
MSIL receives valuable technological support from its parent SMC in rolling out new models, introducing new features and upgrading to
new regulations. The company introduced two new models in FY20 - XL6 and S-Presso – and facelifted 6 models. The company has
transitioned its entire portfolio into BS-VI compliant models far ahead of the competition. MSIL also sources vehicles from SMC’s wholly
owned subsidiary Suzuki Motor Gujarat (SMG) under a contract manufacturing arrangement wherein the vehicles are sold to MSIL at cost.
SMG currently has capacity to manufacture 5 lakh units and is looking to expand to 7.5 lakh units in FY21. The contract manufacturing
arrangement has freed MSIL from expanding its own capacity and it can concentrate on marketing efforts. This would enable the company
to improve its margins, return ratios and generate higher free cash flows.
Resilient financial profile
MSIL has maintained its strong financial risk profile with a net worth in excess of Rs 50,000cr and liquidity of over Rs 40,000cr as of FY20.
The company has a strong cash generating ability and negligible debt levels. With the contract manufacturing arrangement with SMG, its
cash flows can fund the capital expenditure and working capital needs. Financial flexibility is further enhanced by largely unutilised bank
lines of Rs 3000cr. Due to the strong liquidity, MSIL is able to provide financial support to its dealer and vendors to tide over the
challenging business environment.
Reduction in GST on small cars could boost demand
Recently industry has demanded and the Govt is favourably considering a cut in GST rates on small cars from 28%. However looking at the
current fiscal situation it seems unlikely to happen soon. However as and when this happens, it would result in lower cost of ownership
and higher demand.
What could go wrong
Car buying is a discretionary purchase and affordability and sentiments are likely to play key roles in the near term for car sales
due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Raw material prices constitute ~65-70% of the selling price. Although commodity prices are at low levels currently due to lack of
demand, a spike in prices of key raw materials like steel and aluminium can hurt margins.
7Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Indian PV segment is expected to witness strong growth. The number of players in this segment increased to 19 in fiscal 2020 from
7 in fiscal 2008. With more players and models vying for a share of the growing pie, competition in the domestic PV market will
intensify.
We expect sales volume to decline by ~15% in FY21 and bounce back by ~13% in FY22. However a prolonged impact of Covid-19
could result in deeper slowdown or a slower pullback which might result in lower volumes.
MSIL is exposed to risks related to fluctuations in forex rates because of its large import, royalty payments, and exports. Direct and
indirect raw material imports constituted around 15% of net sales. Besides, MSIL pays a part of its royalty in yen. Royalty on MSIL
plus SMG models put together is ~5.4% of net sales.
If availability or cost of finance is impacted due to liquidity or other issues at NBFCs, then sales growth of all automobile
companies (including MSIL) could get impacted.
Rapid adoption of EV in India could create challenge for MSIL in terms of demand for its ICE vehicles coming down and at the same
time if it is not ready to participate in the EV market with reasonable priced cars, then its overall revenues and margins could get
impacted.
Continued rise in petrol prices (despite crude oil price softening globally) could hurt demand for cars by first time users.
EBITDA margins for MSIL are on the downtrend over the last three years. This has to be reversed soon to avoid invetors from
giving lower valuations.
Despite presence in the segment for many years, its share in UVs has been poor. Also post phasing out of diesel vehicles, it needs
to replace sales of diesel vehicles by other vehicles. Also Its premium dealership channel Nexa is overly dependent on Baleno sales.
About the company
Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL), a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC), Japan, is India’s largest passenger car maker. It is
credited with having ushered in the automobile revolution in the country. MSIL is engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of
passenger vehicles in India. Making a small beginning with the iconic Maruti 800 car, MSIL today has a vast portfolio of 16 car models with
over 150 variants. The product range extends from entry level small cars like Alto 800, Alto K10 to the luxury sedan Ciaz. Other activities
include facilitation of pre-owned car sales, fleet management, car financing.
8Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
MSIL has two state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities located in Gurugram and Manesar in Haryana, capable of producing ~1.5mn units
per annum. Suzuki Motor Gujarat Pvt. Ltd. (SMG), a subsidiary of SMC, was set up in Hansalpur, Gujarat to cater to the increasing market
demand for the Company’s products and has been operational since 2017. Through this new facility, an additional annual production
capacity of 0.5mn units has been made available, thereby taking the combined production capability to ~2mn units. The products of the
company are sold in 90 countries through 2390 outlets. It has a support network of 3864 service stations.
Formerly known as Maruti Udyog Ltd., MSIL was incorporated as a joint venture between the Government of India and SMC in February,
1981. It became a subsidiary of SMC in 2002 which currently owns equity of 56.2%.
9Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E As at March (Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Net Revenues 79,763 86,020 75,611 63,079 74,418 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 17.2 7.8 -12.1 -16.6 18.0 Share Capital - Equity 151 151 151 151 151
Raw Material expenses 54,876 60,132 53,035 45,038 51,869 Reserves 41,606 45,991 49,946 54,353 62,252
Gross Profit 2,834 3,255 3,384 2,902 2,932 Total Shareholders Funds 41,757 46,142 50,097 54,504 62,403
Other Operating Expenses 9,992 11,634 11,889 9,966 10,642 Total Debt 111 150 199 249 299
EBITDA 12,062 10,999 7,303 5,172 8,975 Net Deferred Taxes 559 564 592 622 653
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1 12.8 9.7 8.2 12.1 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 42,427 46,855 50,889 55,375 63,355
Growth (%) 16.5 -8.8 -33.6 -29.2 73.5 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,526 3,263 3,340 Net Block 13,359 15,408 15,382 14,619 14,779
EBIT 9,304 7,980 3,777 1,909 5,635 CWIP 2,126 1,600 1,680 1,764 1,852
Other Income 2,046 2,561 3,421 3,820 4,405 Investments 1,208 1,034 1,034 1,034 1,034
Interest expenses 346 76 133 100 58 Total Non-current Assets 16,693 18,042 18,096 17,417 17,665
PBT 11,003 10,466 7,065 5,629 9,982 Cash & Equivalents 34,153 35,660 40,178 44,192 52,754
Tax 3,282 2,965 1,414 1,222 2,083 Inventories 3,161 3,326 3,314 3,174 3,366
RPAT 7,722 7,501 5,651 4,407 7,899 Debtors 1,462 2,310 2,279 2,292 2,463
Adj PAT 7,722 7,501 5,651 4,407 7,899 Other Current Assets 3,901 3,594 3,858 4,148 4,466
Growth (%) 5.1 -2.9 -24.7 -22.0 79.2 Total Current Assets 42,677 44,890 49,629 53,805 63,050
EPS 255.7 248.4 187.1 145.9 261.5 Creditors 13,917 12,703 13,321 12,178 13,529
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 3,026 3,373 3,516 3,668 3,832
Total Current Liabilities 16,943 16,077 16,837 15,847 17,360
Net Current Assets 25,734 28,813 32,792 37,958 45,689
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 42,427 46,855 50,889 55,375 63,355
10Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios
(Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Reported PBT 11,003 10,466 7,065 5,629 9,982 Profitability (%)
Non-operating & EO items -2,046 -2,561 -3,421 -3,501 -4,004 EBITDA (%) 15.1 12.8 9.7 8.2 12.1
Interest Expenses 346 76 133 98 58 EBIT (%) 11.7 9.3 5.0 3.0 7.6
Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,526 3,263 3,340 APAT (%) 9.7 8.7 7.5 7.0 10.6
Working Capital Change 2,760 -1,573 539 -1,153 831 RoE (%) 19.8 17.1 11.7 8.4 13.5
Tax Paid -3,189 -2,960 -1,386 -1,171 -1,989 RoCE (%) 20.0 16.9 11.8 8.4 13.4
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 11,633 6,467 6,456 3,166 8,218 Solvency Ratio
Capex -3,698 -4,542 -3,580 -2,584 -3,588 Debt/EBITDA (x) -2.8 -3.2 -5.5 -8.5 -5.8
Free Cash Flow 7,935 1,925 2,876 563 4,290 Net D/E (x) -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
Investments -347 174 0 0 0 PER SHARE DATA
Non-operating income 2,046 2,561 3,421 3,501 4,004 EPS (Rs) 255.7 248.4 187.1 145.9 261.5
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -1,999 -1,807 -159 917 416 CEPS (Rs) 347.0 348.3 303.9 253.9 372.0
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -373 39 50 50 50 BV (Rs) 1383 1528 1659 1804 2066
Interest Expenses -346 -76 -133 -98 -58 Dividend (Rs) 80.0 80.0 56.1 43.8 75.7
FCFE 7,217 1,888 2,793 514 4,281 Turnover Ratios (days)
Share Capital Issuance 21 -700 0 0 0 Inventory days 9 12 14 14 14
Dividend -2,417 -2,417 -1,695 -1,323 -2,286 Debtor days 17 31 20 30 29
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -3,114 -3,153 -1,778 -1,371 -2,295 Creditors days 38 36 38 39 37
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 6,520 1,507 4,518 2,712 6,339 VALUATION
P/E (x) 25.4 26.2 34.7 44.6 24.9
P/BV (x) 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.5 14.6 21.4 29.5 16.0
EV / Revenues (x) 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.9
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.2
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)
11Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Price Chart
12Maruti Suzuki Ltd.
Disclosure:
I, Atul Karwa, MMS, author and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also
certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
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