Market trends For week ending December 17, 2021 - Performance ...
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market trends For week ending December 17, 2021
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce
Market Overview
The avocado market will remain steady over the next several MARKET ALERT
• Avocados (48’s and Larger) – ESCALATED
weeks with strong numbers on mid to smaller sizes while we
• Bananas – ESCALATED
continue to see a firmer availability of larger-sized fruit. In the • Broccoli & Broccoli Florets – ESCALATED
veg category, we continue to see stable weather and favorable • Brussel Sprouts – ESCALATED
growing conditions that have helped the entire category along, • Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
tomato markets are in great shape with promotable volume • Chili Peppers (Poblanos) – ESCALATED
available. Eggplant, soft squash and cucumbers are also in great • Corn - ESCALTED
supply with promotable volume available out of South Florida as • Garlic – EXTREME
well as Mexico. • Ginger – EXTREME
• Lettuce (Romaine Hearts & Romaine) –
The desert is rapidly winding down and the full transition to ESCALATED
Nogales should take place this weekend. Poblano peppers • Limes - ESCALATED
are escalated while the other chili varieties are improving. Lime • Melon (Cantaloupe & Honeydew) – ESCALATED
market is tight and expected to remain firm through December. • Mushrooms - EXTREME
Western veg has fully transitioned to Yuma and quality has • Pineapples – ESCALATED
improved significantly from what we saw at the end of the Salinas
season. Weather in Yuma has been ideal for growing so quality on
WATCH LIST
• Green Onions
all Western Veg is strong and should remain that way through the • Napa
end of the year. • Strawberries
Yuma weather is finally cooling down. We are expecting temps • Sugar Snap and Snow Peas
in the mid 70’s down to the mis 60’s as highs and as low as the
mid 30’s in some areas. The low’s will be over the weekend and
could bring the first freeze of the season. The lower temperatures
are going to help slow down growth and give us better texture. Apples & Pears
Hopefully we do not get a heavy freeze. West coast new crop apples are being packed; however
small sizes remain tight. Washington exports a substantial
Iceberg is misshapen, ribby with growth crack and tip burn in amount to Mexico which has driven the price up over the
some lots. To add to the problems, we are starting to see mildew last few weeks on many varieties. East coast apples are
showing up in fields. We will continue to be in and out of brand. available as well. Market price remains firm on small fruit
Romaine is in the same boat. Ribby, twist, long, fringe burn and as local schools take most of the volume.
mechanical damage. Like the iceberg mildew is affecting some Pears
lots. Expect mainly packer brand for a while. This year’s pear crop was down significantly, with mostly
larger fruit available. Growers are trying to drag out supply
Green Leaf is looking good in most lots. Some lots are ribby
as best as possible until the new crop starts next August.
to the point of heavy mechanical damage. Again, mildew is a
concern going forward.
Artichokes
Church Bros/True Leaf is completely out of Peak cartons for the Good supply available. 30’s are light. Quality is excellent.
salad blends. I am waiting to hear when they will be receiving more. Prices are steady on all sizes.
Processed items are a bit up and down with quality. The mildew is
really having an effect on some leafy items. Keep a close eye on
inbound processed items.
Chopped romaine is really challenging, especially from Taylor
Farms due to mildew. We are also dealing with some heavy
bruising due to dark green color and lack of heart material.
Iceberg blends are looking good with a good texture
Broccoli florets are generally clean with occasional mold on the
stem.
Arcadian is looking very nice with very little damage.
2
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Yuma, AZ Forecast
Arugula Berries:
Supply and quality are good. Blackberries
Supply is slightly higher than expected since it is the Central
Asparagus Mexico peak week. Favorable warm weather in California is
Quality and volume are good. Low demand but look for also supporting the additional supply, although most of the
demand to increase again as we get closer to Christmas. volume is being produced in Central Mexico. Quality is good.
Avocados Blueberries
ESCALATED (48’s and Larger) Market pricing remains mostly Central Mexico production is expected to continue to increase
steady this week and crossings are expected to be the same moving forward. Baja production will continue with a low
through the second week of the month. Larger-sized fruit steady volume for the rest of the year. Peru production will
remains light on supply, but strong to 60s and smaller. Flavor continue to be steady for the next few weeks. Quality is good.
profile and Oil Contents are normal for this time of year and
will improve as the season progresses. We are beginning to Raspberries
see a shift in the size curve to larger fruit, prices will firm up Slow decrease in supply as the Mexico regions have come
on smaller sized fruit as we approach the Christmas Holiday. off their peak. We’ve come down to the last couple of weeks
Overall demand remains strong in food service while retail dips of harvest for the Watsonville area, Santa Maria will continue
pre-Christmas and New Year’s pull. through December with minimal volume and Oxnard is set to
remain steady. Quality is good.
Bananas
ESCALATED Banana quality and availability are good at this
point, however the cost to get bananas is up.
Beans
EAST: FL has good supply of green beans available with
most product coming from south FL and the Lake area now.
Although there may be some ups and downs due to weather
during the planting cycle, we expect to see a pretty steady
supply situation for the next few weeks. Quality has improved
since last week as weather conditions have been great. FOBs
are steady with last week.
WEST: Green bean supply continues to be solid in Nogales
with plenty of product available to meet demand. Supplies
have picked up from the southern districts of Mexico and good
production is expected to continue through December. FOBs
are holding steady.
3
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Strawberries Corn
Overall, we expect steady volumes as Central Mexico ESCALATED: Corn will remain limited out of Florida. Quality is
continues to increase in volume despite Oxnard & Santa Maria mixed, and FOB prices remain high.
continuing to decrease. Central Mexico continues to increase
with large size fruit and excellent fruit quality. Cucumbers
EAST: There’s no oversupply, but FL growers are providing a
Bok Choy relatively steady flow of cucumbers this week. Some growers
Bok Choy volume is expected to be plentiful for the next two on their 2nd crop of the season and should continue to have
weeks. product through most of the month. FL’s overall production
will start to lighten up as growers make way for the Honduran
Broccoli imports that could start as early as next week. Current quality
ESCALATED: Supply continues to be light, but quality is good. is nice, mostly due to the excellent weather conditions of late.
FOBs are up significantly on supers but are mostly steady on
Brussels Sprouts other sizes/grades.
ESCALATED: Sprout production will be challenging again WEST: Although cloudy and cool weather has slowed down
for the coming week. Insufficient supply of good quality raw production in some areas, there are still plenty of cucumbers
material. Insect injury and discoloration are the main defects. available in Mexico. Baja will go another few weeks, before
leaving the deal in the hands of the mainland, where
Cantaloupe production will continue for the next few months. Overall
We have finished the Domestic fruit and have started to quality is still strong as long as the fruit is fresh. FOBs have
receive offshore fruit here on the west coast as well as the bumped up significantly on both supers and selects since last
east coast. The offshore looks strong and with a green to week.
cream cast and descent internal color, sugars are good to
fair. Market is strong with very good demand especially on
the larger fruit as the first of the offshore is on the smaller
side. There is some Mexico product also crossing which
quality does look really good at this point Volumes will start to
increase over the next 2-3 weeks and hopefully the ports will
keep unloading them as volume increase and the market will
ease a bit by the first of the year.
Carrots
ESCALATED: Shippers are still struggling with jumbos due to
labor (these are hand-pack items). Due to the unprecedented
weekly volume needed for new snack pack options for
school and community programs we continue to struggle
with supply and demand. Pricing is increasing.
Cauliflower
Supply is expected to be plentiful for the next two weeks.
Celery
Better supply, quality is good, and the market is lower.
Salinas is finished, Mexico and Oxnard have started.
Cilantro
Cilantro volume is expected to be on budget this week.
Overall quality is very nice.
4
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Eggplant Green Onions
EAST: The Plant City, Immokalee and Homestead areas each WATCHLIST Quality is good this week. Market is extremely
have a few eggs available this week. Supply remains light, but active as we get through the Holiday’s. Look for market to
we should see a little more fruit in the coming weeks as more continue strong through the first of the year.
acreage gradually comes online in the more southern areas.
There are a few quality issues around, mostly from new crops Honeydew
that had prior weather on them, but that should clean up as We are finished with domestic product and dependent on the
farms get deeper into harvests. FOBs down slightly this week, Mexico fruit, some light offshore volumes arriving. The Mexico
as demand is light. fruit is looking very good and all sizes available, nice clean
WEST: We continue to be in full production out of Mainland cast and excellent internal color and sugars as we have had
Mexico with really nice quality. Expect to see promotional warmer than normal temperatures out west which have helped
opportunity volumes continue through the month of keep quality very nice. We expect the market to keep steady
December. Weather permitting, eggplant should remain readily for another month or so and then possibly ease depending on
available at least until the beginning of January. FOBs are the offshore volumes.
down slightly this week.
Jicama
English Cucumbers Steady supply available crossing through McAllen.
Supply and quality are good.
Kale (Green)
Fennel Bunched Kale supplies are expected to be plentiful for the next
Volume is lower this week. Expect the market to remain high. few weeks.
Sizing remains on the smaller side.
Garlic
Garlic supply for domestic supply is also very tight. Shippers
are holding to averages. The volatile market will continue
through next Summer.
Ginger
EXTREME: Ginger is very volatile due to very inconsistent
supply and market is higher. Supply remains tight for the
foreseeable future.
Grapes
Market has strengthened up and will continue to do so, as we
are basically finished on our domestic fruit. The Peruvian has
started to arrive on the east coast and the west coast is seeing
minimal volumes. Peruvians are extremely light on containers,
which is causing much lighter supplies at this time of year
versus previous Years. The Chilean fruit is later as well and
will start to arrive around the first of the year. Our outlook is a
strong market through January.
Green Cabbage
Supply is good. Quality remains consistent with sizing and
overall appearance
Red Cabbage
Supply is good. Quality remains consistent with sizing and
overall appearance.
5
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Lemons Romaine/Romaine Hearts
Market steady as we are packing fruit from Dist. 1 (central ESCALATED Romaine and Romaine Heart supply is beginning
valley) and Dist. 3 (Desert) the colder temperatures that are to decrease. We are experiencing some quality issues at the
forecasted will also help on quality and bring on color so we field level ultimately reducing yields. Overall demand is steady,
should be done gassing this week and packing al natural color. with a slightly better movement on Romaine Hearts. Market is
There is still Chilean lemons around and some are still coming down slightly although pricing is still escalated.
in off the Vessels that have been stuck here at the port, which
is causing a split market. Limes
ESCALATED: We will continue to see lighter crossings and fair
Lettuce: quality through the holidays.
Butter
Overall volume and quality are good. Mushrooms
EXTREME: Quality is good, although supply is extremely
Green Leaf short and market is higher primarily due to a lack of labor and
Production is good. Quality is also good with a good green shortages in component of growing such as peat moss. We
color, good texture, but lower in weight. Demand is good, and do expect this trend to continue through the first of the year.
pricing remains slightly stronger. Suppliers are pro-rating customer orders up to 50% just to
ensure even availability to their customer base.
Iceberg
Supply is steady. Quality is very good. Demand is expected to Napa
pick up next week with the Holiday approaching. Volume is expected to be plentiful for the next two weeks.
Red Leaf Onions
Good volume with good quality, the market is steady. The Northwest continues to ship a smaller size profile, with
limited Colossal and Super Colossals. The market continues to
stay strong on yellow jumbos and larger, and all sizes of reds
and whites. Movement has slowed these past two weeks,
likely due to the onion recall on Mexican onions that shipped
this past summer even though these onions are more than
likely entirely out of the supply chain, the national stage of the
recall has given consumers some pause. This has allowed
growers to have a few quiet weeks to extend their crop and
cover contract commitments later into the spring. Since the
recalled onions were isolated to Mexican product, we are
already seeing many multi-unit national accounts change their
sourcing guidelines to omit Mexican grown onions. Typically,
Mexican onions can drastically change the supply situation,
and pressure pricing down. However, if major onion users will
no longer allow Mexican product, we may see the domestic
supply increase in pricing, regardless of how many the import
into the U.S. Labor shortages are continuing to present
production challenges in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington,
particularly on heavy volumes of consumer packed onions.
Once we get past the first of the year, supply is expected to
further tighten, and if the heat has detrimental effects on the
onions long term storage ability, we may see elevated levels
of shrink. While there are rumblings that Mexico and other
offshore onion growing regions have larger than normal crops
that they will be importing into the U.S. come January, it may
not have its usual affect this season. Freight continues to be
challenging out of all onion growing regions.
6
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Oranges Parsley (Bunched)
We are experiencing some good rain and the forecast is for Parsley supplies are expected to be plentiful.
more rain through next week, we welcome al we can get for
sure. Market is keeping pretty steady, and we will see how Green Pepper
these storms stack up, but we could see things get a little tight EAST: There are still some off grades in GA, but Eastern pepper
we will keep you posted. We are unable to pick fruit wet as it production is primarily a FL deal now. Plant City, South FL, and
will break the rind cells and then you gas the fruit to bring on the East Coast all have fruit, and most are harvesting from new
the color those rind cells that are damaged will start to break fields. This is providing a lot of 2X and jumbo peppers, although
down 4-5 days later and you will see brown rot and clear rot there also seems to be an adequate number of XL peppers
start. We are also forecasted for colder temperatures which is coming off the plants. There aren’t really any off grades in FL,
also a blessing for fruit quality and bringing on the color. The but that will change over the next few weeks. Quality has been
fruit is eating good, testing about 11.00—12.00, which is very good from all areas, with no major concerns reported. FOBs
good for this time of year. We are about 15% lighter than last are down slightly from last week.
year but should have plenty of supplies through the year. WEST: The CA desert is still going with pepper, as some nice
weather could stretch out their season another week or so.
Specialty Citrus However, quality is just okay with some scarring and mis-shape
We have the following varieties rolling now, please let us know concerns. As Western production make the transition to
if you have any interest in any of these. Pummelos, Meyer Mexico for the Winter, we are seeing volumes increase from the
Lemons, Cara Caras, Oroblancos, Satsuma Mandarins, Hermosillo and Obregon areas this week. Quality is really nice,
Clementine’s and we will start Blood Oranges next week. as long as the fruit is fresh. FOBs have fallen slightly since last
week.
Jalapeños (Chiles)
EAST: Overall, there just aren’t a lot of chili peppers in FL. Plant
City is still working crops, but this year’s harvests haven’t been
as strong as is typical and volume remains light. There are a
few of the mainstream chilies being harvested in south FL, but
there’s not a whole lot of specialty pepper available. Poblanos
are the shortest in supply. FOBs are lower on jalapenos (mostly
due to the Mexican market) but are steady to slightly stronger
on all other varieties.
WEST: After a rough couple of weeks, we’re finally seeing a
little more volume out of Mexico on jalapenos, serranos and
tomatillos. Poblanos continue to be very short as there is only
a handful available. We’re hoping to see poblano production
pick up over the next few weeks, as this item can be a holiday
favorite. Since most product is coming from newer fields,
quality seems to be good with no major issues to report.
FOBs are down slightly on jalapenos and more significantly on
tomatillos and serranos this week. Poblanos, however, have
seen a double-digit increase since last week.
Red & Yellow Bell Peppers
EAST & WEST: Canada is now a done deal for the season,
so demand for and supply of colored bells has transitioned
to Mexico and other import programs. Mexican production
has been fairly consistent over the past few weeks, but
we’re starting to see more sporadic crossings this week.
With demand concentrated in Mexico, supply is a bit snug,
especially on reds. There are still some elongated field red bells
in the CA desert, but those deals should wrap up over the next
week or so. FOB pricing is consistent with last week.
7
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
Pineapple Squash: Yellow and Zucchini
ESCALATED: Pineapple volume will tighten through the month EAST: With Plant City, Immokalee, and Homestead all in full
of December and most likely will not see any improvement until production, zucchini squash has been plentiful and yellow
after the first of the year. We are already experiencing a higher squash has been available in moderate numbers. Market
cost to go to market. Quality and taste profile are great. prices are at or below the cost of production on zucchini and
some growers are now talking of plowing fields under. So,
Potatoes (Idaho) the availability situation could change over the next week.
The potato market has stabilized on all sizes at the moment. Weather has been really nice, so overall quality has been good.
It appears to be a bit of a mixed profile depending on the Currently, FOBs are slightly lower than last week, but stay
different growers around the state. Some are in a larger size tuned.
profile, whereas some are heavier to smaller potatoes. Overall, WEST: As Hermosillo and other northern growing districts
we have not seen decrease or increases in FOBs in the last phase out, the southern growing areas are picking up with
few weeks. We anticipate December will be a fairly stable outstanding quality and great production. Supply will continue
month, and then as we get into the new year and Norkotah from the southern regions through February and then start
supplies begin to dwindle, we anticipate the market will take back up in the northern area sometime in March. FOBs are
another increase. Heightened processor demand continues steady with last week…at minimal levels.
to put pressure on the fresh crop as they are offering record
prices for bulk product. Growers are then faced with a difficult Sweet Potatoes and Yams
decision about whether to sell their crop to processors or Sweet Potato harvest is pretty well done for all growers. There
support the fresh market. The only way the fresh market will are some growers shipping new crop potatoes and others
keep up, is if returns back to the farms are comparable to will be a 3 to 4 weeks of cure time for the new crop and there
what they are being offered. The heat this past summer is seems to be enough old crop Sweets to gap until new crop
still believed to have affected the Burbanks more than the finishes curing.
Norkotahs, so we are not very optimistic of relief until likely
next year’s crop. Unfortunately, we are not in a situation where
we can make up the Idaho shortfall with supply from other
growing regions, as Washington experienced similar growing
conditions, and they are up against the same challenges
related to low yields. The concern surrounding trucks
continues to be elevated as rates these past few weeks have
continued to increase.
Snow Peas
WATCHLIST: Steady/low volume, fair quality, and steadily
increasing demand
Sugar Snap Peas
WATCHLIST: Steady/low volume, fair quality, and steady
demand
Spinach (Bunched)
Supply and quality are good this week.
Spinach (Baby)
Supply and quality are good this week.
Spring Mix
Supply and quality are good this week.
8
market trends
WEek ending December 17, 2021
Produce (continued)
TOMATOES WEST/MEXICO
EAST Rounds
Western round tomato supply is currently limited to Baja’s
Rounds declining volume and the light to moderate numbers coming out
FL’s round tomato supply is strong this week. There’s a little of Eastern Mexico. Since post-holiday demand remains light,
more fruit than usual for this time of year, thanks to some great there’s an adequate amount of supply to meet demand. While
weather enhancing yields. A few growers continue to harvest we wait for Mainland Mexico to get started sometime later this
in the Palmetto/ Ruskin area, but the gradual migration to month, these two areas will continue to be the primary sources
more southern parts of the Sunshine State is well underway. of supply. Both sizing and volume are gradually coming down
Some growers are harvesting in three areas this week: crown in Baja, as they look to wrap things up in January. East Mexico
picks in Naples, 2nd’s in Labelle and a few 3rd’s in Duette still. will also begin to taper off later in December. FOBs are mostly
Although our quality in Labelle was great, Naples fruit looks to steady with last week.
be even better although initially a little smaller on sizing. With
most of the industry also harvesting from a variety of crop Romas
stages, all sizing options are readily available and there’s good Most of the West’s Romas are coming out of Baja this week,
quality around. Pending no major weather issues, we expect where they have begun the seasonal decline and will see
production to hold steady through the month of December. product in fewer hands as we move toward the new year. East
FOBs are down slightly this week. Mexico’s production will continue at light to moderate levels for
the balance of the month before declining in January. The next
Romas major area for Roma supply is Sinaloa (Culiacan and Guaymus),
There are also a few more Romas than usual around in FL, where things have begun in a very light way. We should see
particularly in the R/P area where yields and quality have been production gain strength throughout the month of December
good. Growers are working in both Labelle and Naples this reaching seasonally strong numbers toward the end of January.
week with another 10-14 days to go in Labelle. As we’ve got FOBs are down slightly this week as the post-holiday sales
both crown and 2nd’s in production, we have a good variety slump continues.
of sizing options and our quality has been excellent. As with
rounds, we expect to see similar numbers (depending on Grape & Cherry Tomatoes
weather) until the first of the year. Pricing is slightly lower on all Baja’s grape tomato production continues to wind down as we
sizes this week. move through the month of December, but there are still decent
volumes available. Meanwhile, more growers are starting up in
Grape & Cherry Tomatoes Mainland Mexico daily. We could see a flush over the next week
With R/P, Plant City and South FL all in production, there are or so as grower’s clean fields during their first picks, but quality
great volumes of grape tomatoes available this week. Many is sometimes a little less from these early harvests. Look for that
growers continue to harvest from Labelle and Naples, and to clean up over the next few weeks as more and more growers
even still has some grapes remaining in Duette. Our yields get deeper into crops. Cherry tomato availability is adequate
in Labelle have been a little lighter than preferred, but there’s to meet demand, but overall volume is light due to reduced
enough product coming off in other areas that it’s a minimal acreage. FOBs are down slightly on grapes but are mostly
factor. Production for the overall industry should continue at steady on cherries.
the currently strong levels for at least the next few weeks.
Cherry tomatoes are readily available this week. Since the
pandemic began and many reduced acreage, the demand for Watermelons
cherries has slowed as some customers made the switch to Lighter supply available this week crossing through Nogales.
grapes when availability was snug. With great weather, multiple Demand is flat and quality is marginal.
areas in production and moderate to strong yields, there are
plenty of cherries to meet demand. Grapes and cherries are
each down slightly.
9
market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, the USDA Choice beef cutout finished 2.2 percent lower (w/w). Last week, beef production increased 19.63 per-
cent due to the holiday and was 0.29 percent larger than the same week last year. Slightly smaller year-over-year beef output
is projected this winter. The USDA is forecasting domestic beef output in the first quarter of 2022 to be unchanged compared
to this year. Domestic beef trim prices remain costly, currently up 37 percent (y/y). Oct. 31 boneless beef stocks were 5.5
percent smaller than the prior year but grew 7.8 percent (m/m). Since 2016, the domestic 90 percent beef trim market has
averaged 1.7 percent lower in December (m/m). Over the last five years, the 50 percent beef trim market has averaged 19
percent lower (m/m).
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Steady Short Steady
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Steady Higher
Ground Chuck Decreasing Steady Higher
109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Short Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Steady Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Available Higher
116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Available Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Short Higher
120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Short Higher
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Available Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Available Higher
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Available Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Steady Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Available Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Available Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Available Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Steady Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Steady Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
50% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
65% Trimmings Decreasing Available Higher
75% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
85% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
90% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Short Higher
Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Short Higher
10market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Grains
The grain markets ended last week mixed on Friday, but on a weekly basis the corn, soybean, and even some wheat mar-
kets finished (the week) in negative territory. However, the best news for buyers was nearby soybean oil futures were down
2.8 percent (w/w) and hit the lowest level ($.545) since September ($.541). The quarterly pivot model for soybean oil sug-
gests that the downside target of $.523 (S3) could be hit by the end of the month. The most bullish market, however, in
the grain complex remains the MN hard spring wheat market, which finished higher last week and is currently the highest
since 2008 when this market, believe it or not, hit an all-time high of $19.81. Expect the grain markets to remain volatile.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Steady Lower
Corn, bushel Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Decreasing Steady Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Steady Lower
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Steady Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Steady Higher
Pinto Beans, lb Steady Steady-Short Higher
Black Beans, lb Steady Short Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb Decreasing Steady Lower
Dairy
Last week, the cheese markets were modestly higher (w/w) for barrels, but blocks were unchanged but still matched the highest
weekly close in eight weeks. CME spot butter prices were down slightly (w/w) but are 26.8 percent higher than the 2020 price
average. Per the USDA, October U.S. cheese production was up 0.9 percent (y/y) but was up 1.1 percent (m/m). October butter
output was down 1.6 percent (y/y) and larger by 11.2 percent (m/m). In October, combined domestic nonfat-dry-milk and skim
milk powder production was down 7.1 percent (y/y). Since 2008, cheese block prices finished lower in December from November
in 11 of those years by a combined average of 11.0 percent. In 2009 and 2013, block prices finished higher in December (m/m)
by an average of 6.3 percent. In the last 12 years, spot butter prices finished lower in December from November in nine of those
years by a combined average of 11.5 percent. In 2013, 2016, and 2020 spot butter prices were up in December (m/m) by an
average of 6.1 percent.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME) Steady Steady-Short Higher
American Cheese Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Monterey Jack Cheese Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Parmesan Cheese Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Butter (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Short Higher
Whey, Dry Increasing Short Higher
Class 1 Base Steady Short Lower
Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Short Higher
Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
11market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Pork
Last week, the USDA pork cutout finished 0.2 percent higher (w/w). Last week pork output increased 18.2 percent due to the
holiday but was 5.8 percent less than the same week a year ago. The USDA is forecasting winter pork production to be 4.3
percent smaller than 2021. This could support the wholesale pork markets, especially after the recent price declines. Oct. 31
domestic cold storage pork holdings were 1.7 percent smaller than last year with loins (23 percent), butts (7 percent), and ribs
(8 percent) and pork bellies (39 percent) stocks all down. Yet, cold storage ham stocks (22 percent) and trim holdings (11 per-
cent) were higher (y/y). Pork belly prices usually decline during December, but this year’s declines may be limited. Ham prices
usually depreciate modestly in the nearing weeks.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Increasing Available Lower
Sow Decreasing Steady Higher
Belly (bacon) Increasing Available Higher
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Steady Higher
Ham (20-23 lb) Decreasing Steady Lower
Ham (23-27 lb) Decreasing Steady Lower
Loin (bone in) Decreasing Available Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Available Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Available Higher
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Picnic, untrmd Increasing Steady-Available Higher
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Available Lower
42% Trimmings Increasing Available Higher
72% Trimmings Increasing Available Lower
12market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Poultry
The wholesale chicken markets were higher last week (w/w). For the week ending Nov. 27 domestic chicken production fell
24.8 percent (w/w) due to the holiday and was 6.5 percent smaller than the same week last year. Year-to-date chicken slaughter
through Nov. 27 is 1.4 percent less than 2020. For that same week (11/24) the average bird weight was up 0.6 percent (y/y),
which has boosted broiler supplies. The chicken breast markets are pricing at their most expensive levels for December in at least
13 years. Additionally, chicken wings have retreated in recent weeks but are still pricing at record highs for early December. The
seasonal upside potential may be tempered for wing and breast prices from now up to the Super Bowl.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Increasing Short Higher
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Available Higher
Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Available Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Decreasing Steady Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Higher
Legs (whole) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Available Higher
Thighs, Bone In Increasing Steady Higher
Thighs, Boneless Decreasing Available Higher
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Steady Short Higher
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Steady Short Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Increasing Short Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Increasing Steady-Short Lower
Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Short Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Decreasing Steady Higher
13market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Seafood
Some seafood markets experienced modest weakness in recent weeks but as a whole are still pricing 17.6 percent above
year-ago levels, depending on the item. Seafood demand remains solid in response to the other inflated protein markets.
Expect U.S. seafood demand to stay strong and prices to remain inflated, especially if the U.S. dollar weakens. This week the
USDA will update the October domestic seafood imports, which always give us a pulse on supplies.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Available Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Steady Higher
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Steady Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Steady-Short Higher
Cod Filet, frz Steady Steady Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Available Higher
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Available Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Higher
14market trends
WEek ending December 17 , 2021
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Short Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Short Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Steady-Short Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Available Higher
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Decreasing Available Higher
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21
Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Increasing
Dairy Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Pork Increasing Increasing Increasing
Chicken Increasing Increasing Increasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Increasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Increasing Increasing
Various Markets
Nearby Arabica coffee futures finished higher last week (w/w) and experienced the highest weekly close since October 2011!
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is forecasted to have its lowest production year since 2017/18. Coffee demand is
solid (pretty sure that never changes!), which will keep prices supported. The quarterly pivot model for Arabica coffee has an
upside target at $2.530.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Increasing Short Higher
Sugar lb ICE Decreasing Steady Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Available Lower
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Honey (clover) lb Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
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